SOLAR AND BATTERY SCENARIO CALCULATOR

Password: fga (lowercase)

Legend:
Cell is an input cell
Cell is inactive
Cell is a derived variable

Variable Descriptions:

When using this tool, fill in the inputs as per the instructions outlined below
All figures in this tool are ex. GST

Area Typical Value

Array Infrastructure
Location Drop down select

Consumption Profile Drop down select

No. of Councils 0+
Array Size 1 - 90 MW
Array Cost 2500 $/kW
Array Deg. 0.50%
Maintenance 20 $/kW
Maintenance Escalation 2.50%
Rates
Blended Peak $0.06/kWh
Blended Offpeak $0.05/kWh
Year Zero Utility Rate Mult 100.00%
LM Peak $0.0531/kWh
LM Offpeak $0.0337/kWh
SM Peak $0.1715/kWh
SM Offpeak $0.0840/kWh
PL Peak $0.0413/kWh
PL Offpeak $0.0343/kWh
Spot Market (Y/N)? Y/N
Regular Export 0.05 $/kW
Utility Escalation Drop down select
Rates 3.40%
LGCs
Sell/Retire Sell/Retire
Cost $80/Certificate
Annual Reduction 5%
Years 5 years
% Sold 100%
Battery
Yes/No Y/N
Battery Size kWh
Battery Cost 2000 $/kWh
Financials
 Discount Rate 4.50%
NPV Term 25 years
Yes/No Y/N
Down Payment 0%
Loan Term 1 10 years
Interest 1 3.97%
Loan Term 2 15 years
Interest 2 3.97%

Guidelines and Assumptions

Focus Notes

Special attention should be given to forecasting the electricity price growth rate a
savings to recover project costs.

This model utilises modelling undertaken by AEMO by Jacobs to index electricity

Price escalation for utility
rates
price index low scenario.
The model provides the option to use a custom escalation rate if required. This
forecast report has been released.
Source: https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and
projections_Final-Public-Report-June-2017.pdf

Electricity rates are subject to change over the lifetime of the project. Current tar
Utility Tariffs
council encompassed by the scope of MAV's project.

Following further refinement of the energy loads to be offset by the large scale re
availability and proximity to transmission networks. A high-level overview of the n
Planning Reports for each Distributor. Ausnet Services can be found here:
Network Connection
Source: https://www.ausnetservices.com.au/Misc-Pages/Links/About-Us/Publica

A grid connected solar array will require a new financial agreement between MA

Solar arrays are typically grouped by size category into residential (1-10 kW), com
large scale solar does not predictably follow an economies of scale curve. It is mo
Economies of Scale
ranging from $1.34/W to $4.00/W. The large variance in cost is due to variable co
inverters, and mounting hardware is relatively stable for large scale solar, and gre

Loan inputs and calculations have been set up in such a way to be capable of mod
Loan Calculations terms with differing interest rates. Repayment calculations follow common practi
year loan at 3.7% followed by a 15 year loan at 5% was the chosen scenario.
Limitations Grossly oversized batteries are not modelled appropriately. Battery size is capped

Graphs Note that summary sheet graphs are driven by data in the "Working" sheet. This
s outlined below

Instructions

Choose array location from drop down menu.

Choose whether to model consumption on small market (SM) , large market (LM), public lighting (PL) or total
consumption
Choose number of councils to model consumption. No. of Councils impacts total consumption in kWhs.
Array size should be compared with % net renewable (0-100%)
Array cost has typical value of $2,500 per installed kW
Degradation of array production per year.
General upkeep/maintenance costs of large scale solar arrays
Based on the consumer price index (CPI)

Calculated blended peak electricity rate. This is what is used in all financial calculations.
Calculated blended offpeak electricity rate. This is what is used in all financial calculations.
Year zero utility rate multiplier. 100% assumes representative council utility rates as of June 2017.
Large market peak electricity rate
Large market offpeak electricity rate
Small market peak electricity rate
Small market offpeak electricity rate
Public lighting peak electricity rate
Public lighting offpeak electricity rate
Drop down menu to determine whether spot market price is used for all excess energy above .
If manual export rate, enter here.
Escalate utilities using Jacob's AEMO VIC wholesale market index or choose a custom annual rate
Custom annual utility escalation rate

Drop down menu to choose whether LGCs are sold or retired

Current LGC price as of June 2017
Percent reduction in LGC value per year
Lifespan of LGC program. After this period, LGCs valued at $0/certificate based on uncertainty in RET
Percentage of total generated LGC's sold

Drop down menu to apply battery storage condition

Battery size in kWh
Typical battery cost as of June 2017
 Discount rate for NPV calculations
Term over which project value is calculated. Typically 25 years for a large solar array.
Drop down menu to choose whether array is paid upfront or as a loan
Percent down payment on loan
Term of initial loan rate. See guidelines below for more info on loan calculations.
Initial loan fixed interest rate. Repayments are principal+interest.
Term of second loan rate. See guidelines below for more info on loan calculations.
Second loan fixed interest rate. Repayments are principal +interest.

n to forecasting the electricity price growth rate as accurately as possible because most sustainability projects rely on energy
.

ndertaken by AEMO by Jacobs to index electricity price. The escalation index selected is based on the Victorian wholesale

to use a custom escalation rate if required. This should be reviewed and updated annually or when a major electricity
ed.
m.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/EFI/Jacobs-Retail-electricity-price-history-and-
-June-2017.pdf

hange over the lifetime of the project. Current tariffs have been based on the most recent bills issued to a representative
ope of MAV's project.

the energy loads to be offset by the large scale renewable project, a site selection process should consider land size, land
nsmission networks. A high-level overview of the network capacity in each region can be found on the Distributed Annual
butor. Ausnet Services can be found here:

vices.com.au/Misc-Pages/Links/About-Us/Publications

ll require a new financial agreement between MAV and the network provider.

ed by size category into residential (1-10 kW), commercial (10-200 kW) and utility or large scale above 200 kW. The cost of
ctably follow an economies of scale curve. It is more instructive to provide a range of expected prices for large scale solar,
/W. The large variance in cost is due to variable costs; namely integration to the electricity network. The cost of panels,
are is relatively stable for large scale solar, and great cost efficiencies are not guaranteed by exploring larger scale projects.

ve been set up in such a way to be capable of modelling an adjustable rate loan. Calculations can support 2 separate loan
es. Repayment calculations follow common practise techniques employed when calculating ARM repayments. An initial 10
15 year loan at 5% was the chosen scenario.
not modelled appropriately. Battery size is capped such that battery storage never exceeds electricity demand

hs are driven by data in the "Working" sheet. This sheet has been hidden to avoid user error.
Local Govt. Solar and Battery Scenario Calculato
Date 8/9/2017

Scenario Description

This scenario assesses the installation of 7800kW of solar PV

Location
without batteries, for 1 council(s) in Melbourne (Metro).

Melbourne (Metro)
Model Input Selection:

Change the input cells (orange) to change the scenario. See Model
Notes sheet for more info. $0
0 5
-$5,000,000
Array Infrastructure
Variable Inputs Unit -$10,000,000
Location Melbourne (Metro)
Consumption Profile All
-$15,000,000

No. of Councils 1
-$20,000,000
Array Size 7,800 kW
Array Cost $2,500 /kW -$25,000,000
Array Deg. 0.5%
Maintenance $20 /kW
Maintenance Escalation 2.5%

Electricity Rates
Summer A
Variable Inputs Unit
Blended Peak $0.06 /kWh
8,000

Blended Offpeak $0.04 /kWh 6,000

Electricity Consumption, kWh

LM Peak $0.05313 /kWh

100.0%
LM Offpeak $0.03367 /kWh 4,000

SM Peak $0.17150 /kWh

100.0% 2,000
SM Offpeak $0.08400 /kWh
PL Peak $0.04130 /kWh 0
100.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
PL Offpeak $0.03433 /kWh
-2,000
Spot Market Export (Y/N)? Y
Regular Export $0.060 /kWh -4,000
Utility Escalation Jacobs Index
-6,000
Utility Escalation 3.4% p.a.
Existing Grid Import
o Calculator

Scenario Outputs

Array Size, Land Size, Existing Solar Production, % Net

# Councils % Exported Capital Cost, $
kW ha Consumption, kWh kWh Renewable

1 7,800 11.70 11,344,176 11,361,342 100% 67% $19,500,000

Cumulative Cash Flow Monthly Electricity Consumpti

$0 1,200,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
00,000 1,000,000

Electricity Consumption, kWh

00,000 800,000

00,000 600,000

00,000 400,000

200,000
00,000
Year 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Discounted Cash Flow Existing Electricty Consumption After S

Summer Average Daily Electricity Profile Winter Average Daily Elect

8,000 5,000
4,000
6,000
Electricity Consumption, kWh

3,000
4,000 2,000

2,000 1,000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -1,000
-2,000 -2,000
-3,000
-4,000
-4,000
-6,000
Existing Grid Import So
Existing Grid Import Solar Energy Production Grid Import After Solar Grid Import After Solar
 Revision:

Warning: Array Size

Simple
Net LGC Annual
Revenue, $ Savings, $
Payback NPV, $ No Warning
Period

$3,897,842 $706,439 28.34 ($2,037,272)

Warning: Battery Size

Monthly Electricity Consumption from Grid

No Warning
0,000

0,000
LGCs
0,000 Variable Inputs
Sell/Retire Sell
0,000
Cost $80

0,000 Reduction 5.00%

Years 5
0,000 % Sold 100%

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Battery
xisting Electricty Consumption After Solar/Battery Consumption Variable Inputs
Yes/No N
Battery Size 15,000
Winter Average Daily Electricity Profile
Battery Cost $2,000
00
00 Financials
00 Variable Inputs
00 Discount Rate 4.5%

00 NPV Term 25

0 Loan Y/N N
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Down Payment 0.0%
00
Term - Interest Rate 1 25
00
Interest Rate 1 3.97%
00
Term - Interest Rate 2 0
00
Interest Rate 2 3.97%

Existing Grid Import Solar Energy Production

Grid Import After Solar
 2.0

Comment

/LGC
/year
years

Unit

kWh
/kWh

Unit
p.a.
years

Years

Years