POLITICO.

EU | M AY 2 3 - 2 9, 2 0 2 4 | VOLUME 10, NUMBER 19

How Russia
infiltrated Austria's
spy service
BY MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG IN VIENNA | PAGES 20-23
ISSN 2406-5250 ILLUSTRATION BY ROBERT CARTER FOR POLITICO
 Page 2 May 23, 2024
By Paul Dallison
WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU ARE TOO FAR-RIGHT FOR THE FAR RIGHT? It took its sweet
time — but the European Union election has finally become (somewhat) interesting!
For that we have to thank Maximilian Krah, a German member of the European Par-
liament who’s so far to the right you can barely see him with the naked eye (and who
has a suitably far-right haircut). He’s been the bond villain of this election, sitting in an
underground lair stroking a cat
before pushing a hidden button
and sending his enemies hur-
tling downward into a swimming
pool with a shark in it (prob-
ably). Krah has also been “on
DE-
tour,” driving around in a sports
CLASSIFIED
WHO’S UP
Space eaters:
A university in
Vermont has
given an honorary
degree — “doctor
of litter-ature”
— to Max the cat. Unlike most
American students, Max has so
far kept his views on the conflict
in the Middle East to himself.
Fake voices: Scarlett Johans-
son said she was “shocked”
and “angered” after OpenAI
launched a chatbot with a voice
that’s “eerily similar” to her
own. The chatbot’s name is Sky,
which is a change from its origi-
nal name, Jarlett Scohansson.
WHO’S DOWN
Whatever a tra-
ditional family
is these days:
Turkey’s Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan is
upset at Eurovi-
sion for encouraging “gender
neutralization” and threatening
the traditional family. Someone
sounds upset at missing out on
the fun!
Eagles in a hurry: Eagles
that have migratory routes
through Ukraine have shifted
their flight paths to avoid
areas affected by Russia’s war.
Researchers analysed migration
routes taken by 19 greater spot-
ted eagles as they flew through
Ukraine to breeding grounds in
southern Belarus, both before
and after the war. If only the
birds could be persuaded
to drop ammo for Ukrainian
soldiers.
THIS WEEK ON EU CONFIDENTIAL
EUROPEAN ELECTION 101:
This episode is an essential guide for anyone voting in the upcoming European
election. Host Sarah Wheaton and her colleagues answer questions from our
listeners, collected from social media. They delve into the nitty-gritty of voting
and what happens next.
POLITICO PODCASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON ALL MAJOR PLATFORMS, INCLUDING ...
car accompanied by women
wearing dirndls and waving flags
as he campaigns for a seat in the
European Parliament election
of 1979.
Krah, you may recall, also had
his office raided because an assis-
This week in history
May 25, 1810: Having severed ties with Spain, the municipal council of Buenos Aires established an autonomous gov-
ernment. This week, Argentina’s leader and 1970s club singer Javier Milei described the wife of Spain’s Prime Minister
Pedro Sánchez as “corrupt” and in response, Madrid “definitively” recalled its ambassador to Buenos Aires.
CAPTION COMPETITION
“I BLOODY LOVE THE FOOTBALL, ME. JUST AN ORDINARY BLOKE WATCHING THE SOCCER. WHICH ONE’S
MY TEAM?””
Can you do better? Email pdallison@politico.eu or get in touch on X @pdallisonesque
erence to German novelist Günt-
er Grass, who admitted late in his
life to having joined the Waffen-SS
— the combat branch of the Nazi
Party’s Schutzstaffel paramilitary
— as a teenager.
So toxic has Krah become that
even France’s National Rally and
the Danish People’s Party — both
fellow members of the Identity
and Democracy (ID) group in
the European Parliament — have
tried to distance themselves from
him. That means he’s too far-right
tant has been accused of spying for the far right! POLITICO’s style
for China. guide (for words, not dress sense)
And, speaking to the Italian will have to be burned and instead
daily La Repubblica, Krah said of writing “far right,” we’ll have to
he would “never say that anyone use the angry face emoji.
who wore an SS uniform was auto- If the ID group splits, maybe
matically a criminal.” That’s a ref- Krah will have to go and sit like a
LAST WEEK’S WINNER
BY ADRIAN CARTER
“This young moron is trying to make me
look shorter than I already am.”
Thanks for all the entries. Here’s the best from our
postbag — there’s no prize except for the gift of laugh-
ter, which I think we can all agree is far more valuable
than cash or booze.
THIS WEEK ON POWER PLAY
NALVANY’S LEGACY:
The sudden death of Alexei Nalvany, one of the most prominent opposition leaders
in Russia, earlier this year sent shockwaves around the world. Host Anne McElvoy
talks to Leonid Volkov, who was Nalvany’s chief of staff and campaign manager
about his mission to provide a democratic alternative to President Putin’s regime.
... APPLE, GOOGLE, STITCHER AND ACAST. OR JUST LISTEN AT POLITICO.EU
Leading off
naughty child with the nonaligned
MEPs, making obscene gestures
and fart noises from the edges of
the Parliament’s hemicycle.
Alas, Krah announced on
Wednesday that he was going to
put the car (and perhaps even the
women in dirndls and their flags)
back in the garage and stop cam-
paigning. But he was the only one
in all of Europe making an effort!
Meanwhile in Italy, thieves
broke into the Rome house of Mat-
teo Salvini, leader of the League
and lover of ambitious (some
would say foolhardy) bridge proj-
ects. No one was home, thankful-
ly, but it’s worth noting because
the League’s slogan in the EU elec-
tion is “To defend the homes and
cars of Italians.”
BACKHANDED AWARD
THE ‘DON’T YOU
KNOW WHO I AM?’
AWARD FOR BAD
DRIVING
Want to avoid London’s system
for charging drivers who ven-
ture into the city? Then i) don’t
drive in London! Why would that
even cross your mind? They
have the Tube and buses and
various types of train; and ii)
pretend to be an American dip-
lomat (unless you are already
an American diplomat, in which
case, carry on.)
According to Transport for Lon-
don, the city’s U.S. embassy has
racked up more than £14 million
in unpaid traffic charges since
the capital’s congestion charge
was brought in 20 years ago.
TfL said in a statement that
while most embassies in Lon-
don pay their fees, “a stubborn
minority ... refuse to do so,
despite our representations
through diplomatic channels.”
It added: “We will continue to
pursue all unpaid Congestion
Charge fees and related penalty
charge notices, and are pushing
for the matter to be taken up
at the International Court of
Justice.”
The Japanese Embassy was
second on the list, owing more
than £10 million, while the
Indian High Commission owed
£8.5 million.
Among all embassies, the total
unpaid figure from 2003 to
December last year was £143.5
million.
Your VIP pass to the world’s most
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 DECLASSIFIED TOO Page 4 May 23, 2024

Palate cleanser AGENDA Lens

Thursday,
Insider tips from our newsroom on where to eat in and around the EU quarter. A weekly glimpse into a reporter’s notebook, er, camera roll
May 23:
Competitiveness
Council.
Friday, May 24:
Competitiveness
Council.
Monday, May 27:
Foreign Affairs
Council.
Tuesday, May 28:
Foreign Affairs
Council.

INFLUENCERS
Sustainability:
Nicolás Fuentes
Colomer has
joined Acumen
Public Affairs as
account director,
sustainability. He
was previously
with Neste.
Health Care:
Valentina
DATO PARULAVA Strammiello has
been promoted

Olive: Taste from Gaza

to director
of strategic
sugar syrup. Everything was delicious but initiatives at
Chaussée de Charleroi 263 our favorite were the appetizers. the European
Patients’ Forum.
A cozy, family-run Palestinian restaurant
What’s not: The space is tiny and gets noisy Energy: Paul
which aims to educate diners about Gaza’s
easily. The vegetarian options on the menu Rübig, Austrian
culture through food.
are limited. politician and
What’s good? Welcoming atmosphere, deli- former MEP for
Vibe: Welcoming and vibrant. You’ll feel as the EPP group,
cious recipes and modest prices. The res-
if you are dining among friends and family. started work as
taurant was opened by a Palestinian couple
an administrator
Week 19: North Atlantic Treaty Organization
— Nour and her husband Bob — only a few
Who’s picking up the check? Prices for the EU
months ago, but business is booming. “We
are reasonable with main plates ranging Agency for the
opened on March 12 during the war,” Nour
tells me. “It’s a cultural project for us to talk
about Gaza through the food.”
between €9.50 for the falafel salad and
€22.50 for the lamb.
Cooperation
of Energy
Headquarters, Brussels
Regulators
The menu is a well-thought-out combina-
Fun fact: The name of the restaurant was (ACER). A piece of the Berlin Wall and debris from the World Trade
inspired by the olive tree, which is consid-
tion of traditional dishes that Nour and Bob,
ered precious in Palestine. “It is an icon of Center’s North Tower in New York on either side of the otherwise
who is the head chef, chose after discus-
our history and culture,” Nour explained. CORRECTIONS
sions with mothers from Gaza. POLITICO is unremarkable entrance to the canteen at NATO headquarters on
How to get there: From Brussels Central committed to
We started with the Gaza appetizers — a correcting errors. the outskirts of Brussels. The current office complex was opened in
Station, exit toward the European Quarter,
set of dips and sauces accompanied by a
Musakhan roll, a wrap with chicken and
go under the street, then up the stairs into To contact 2017 and built at an estimated cost of over €1 billion.
Ravenstein gallery. Pure Veg India is about the newsroom
caramelized onions inside. We also tried the regarding a
a third of the way down the hall on the right
Maqluba — a rice dish with eggplants, toma- correction request,
— just follow the coriander aroma. Joshua Posaner, POLITICO’s senior reporter, files a photo a week from his camera roll
toes and chicken — and ended with a Kuna- please email
fa as dessert, a crispy Arab cake made with editorial@ zooming in on the design and history of parliaments, town halls, ministries and the
phyllo pastry and sweet cheese, soaked in politico.eu. various buildings in which heads of government carry out affairs of state.
— ELENA GIORDANO

Brain teaser
Fill in the answers to reveal the top-secret EU term that is especially relevant today.

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5. Second-biggest city in Slovakia
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6. New Liverpool FC manager
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Last week’s answers: Obama, Ebro, Start, Reding, Nemo, Yerevan
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 Page 5 May 23, 2024
UK-EU: INTO BED WITH EACH OTHER AGAIN? an old hand at navigating the twists
and turns of EU policymaking.
Financial regulation Since Brexit they’ve not had much
as pillow talk may not to do with each other. But maybe —
just maybe — an old flame is rekin-
be everyone’s cup of dling. On Wednesday, the U.K.’s Gwyn-
tea — but it could lead eth Nurse and the EU’s John Berrigan
to a rekindling of the were set to discuss potential financial
services cooperation. It was set to be
relationship. only the second time the two sides
have talked about the massively im-
portant sector since Britain’s depar-
ture from the bloc in January 2020.
BY HANNAH BRENTON
IN LONDON Nobody needs reminding that the
divorce caused quite a bit of bad blood
She’s the British official who’s good — but Nurse and Berrigan are deter-
at knocking bankers’ heads together. mined to help Brussels and London
He’s the twinkly-eyed Irishman who’s get it on.
VIOLENCE HITS FRANCE
Emmanuel Macron is facing a per-
The French president fect storm.
Over the past few weeks, teenag-
eyed a pro-European er-on-teenager killings, drug-related
election campaign — but shootings, a heightened terror threat
teen killings, shootings and deadly protests in the overseas
territory of New Caledonia have dom-
and deadly protests have inated the airwaves, spelling trouble
fueled the far right. for the French president and his Eu-
ropean election campaign.
Macron is trying to persuade vot-
ers to support his pro-EU vision for
BY VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT a strong bloc with France at its cen-
IN PARIS ter. But he’s already fighting an uphill
Election And there’s wider significance.
Given the importance of financial
alert services to London and Brussels, it
U.K. Prime could even spell a broader thawing in
Minister Rishi post-Brexit relations — particularly as
Sunak called a polls put the more EU-friendly Labour
snap general Party most likely to form a govern-
election for July ment after an election that must be
4. POLITICO’s before the end of January.
Poll of Polls puts
VIBE SHIFT
Labour 21 points
clear of the Britain left the bloc without a deal
Conservatives as covering financial services in 2020
the vote looms. and tensions over Northern Ireland
Such a result left the relationship between the two
would put an end sides at a tense stand-off for years.
to 14 years of Trust hit a low. But things have
Tory rule. been hotting up since the U.K. and EU
— AND MACRON STUMBLES
struggle, with Marine Le Pen’s far-
right National Rally (RN) consolidat-
ing its substantial lead over Macron’s
party in the polls.
Now, the succession of headlines
about security fears have further de-
railed Macron’s strategy as the June 9
European Parliament election draws
near.
“Today, if you ask your parents,
grandparents or friends what they’re
POOL PHOTO BY talking about, it’s not Europe, it’s
MICHEL EULER
VIA AFP/GETTY
what happened in the Eure depart-
IMAGES ment,” where gunmen killed two pris-
News
resolved problems on the Northern
Ireland border last year. And that’s
helped lift the mood on financial ser-
vices, too.
Now, it’s up to Nurse and Berrigan
to add to the vibe shift, according to
diplomats, officials and lobbyists on
both sides of the English Channel,
who were granted anonymity to speak
to POLITICO because of the sensitive
nature of the discussions.
The European Commission will
play host to the EU-U.K. discussion
forum in Brussels.
The forum won’t lead to a sudden
rapprochement, especially with elec-
SEE BREXIT ON PAGE 15
on guards in an ambush on a police
van, said Benjamin Haddad, from
Macron’s Renaissance party. “It’s our
responsibility to show that even on
these sorts of issues, Europe can play
a role, for example with cooperation
mechanisms to find fugitives.”
Long-term trends surrounding
crime and violence are on a down-
ward trajectory in France. But the
spectacular nature and rolling media
coverage of the violence have driven
SEE FRANCE ON PAGE 15
 News
TOXIC BULLYING CLAIMS BLOW UP
BRUSSELS’ BIGGEST HEALTH NGO
The European Public
Health Alliance is engulfed
in crisis after a wave of
resignations.
BY MARI ECCLES
It has been one of the most respect-
ed voices for medical professionals
and their patients for more than 25
years.
Now, the European Public Health
Alliance (EPHA) is engulfed in cri-
sis, after claims of harassment and
a toxic work culture, and a wave
of resignations. The future of the
NGO — and patients’ representation
in the EU’s law-making process — is
at stake.
Director General Milka Sokolović
told POLITICO that she refuted the
claims against the organization “in
the strongest possible terms” and an
investigation appears to have given
the NGO a clean bill of health.
But this year alone the NGO has
lost all but two of its board mem-
bers, its president, treasurer and 14
out of its 15 expert advisers.
As the crisis spiralled out of
EPHA has control, an external law firm was
managed to brought in to investigate the allega-
build up a tions of harassment and discrimi-
reputation for nation following which a senior
itself as the boss — and husband of EPHA chief
go-to place for Sokolović — left his post without a
public health public explanation. Some patient
advocacy in and public health groups that pay
Brussels and the NGO to advocate for them in
beyond. Brussels, have criticized the probe
for a lack of transparency, a charge
JEFF PACHOUD/ rejected by the lawyers.
AFP VIA GETTY
IMAGES EPHA is the biggest NGO in Brus-
sels representing groups that speak
for patients with cancer, mental ill-
ness and infectious diseases, as well
as doctors, pharmacists and nurses.
It represents close to 70 member
organizations in talks on EU policy-
making at the highest level, from dis-
cussions about how to handle drug
shortages, to mental health plans
and pharmaceutical regulations.
The chaos at such a well-respect-
ed NGO has shocked the European
health care sector.
It puts at risk the united front
in public health advocacy in Brus-
sels, at a time when Europe has
turned its attention away from the
pandemic and health policy, mak-
ing the fight to be heard harder for
health groups.
“The negative impact on EPHA’s
credibility is palpable, whether at
meetings in Brussels, Copenhagen
or Geneva,” said one person work-
ing in European health policy with
deep knowledge of EPHA. Like many
POLITICO spoke with for this article,
the person was granted anonymity
to speak candidly about sensitive
matters.
“It is severely damaging the wid-
er reputation of public health civil
society too. Only urgent leadership
change at EPHA can address this
now,” the person claimed.
THE ANONYMOUS LETTER
The trouble began in February, with
a note sent by a group of ex-employ-
ees who said they were concerned
about behavior within the organi-
zation which they considered to
be “harassment, intimidation and
bullying.”
“Continued harsh criticism and
personal insults” had led to the cre-
ation of a “toxic and hostile work
environment,” they wrote. The note
alleged “double-standards in man-
agement and values” and a lack of
transparency in decision-making.
At the heart of their complaint
was a leadership structure domi-
nated by a husband-and-wife team
which, they alleged, had “no effec-
tive accountability,” and no real
space for criticism, dissent, or griev-
ances to be heard.
Milka Sokolović became direc-
tor general of EPHA in 2021 after a
20-year career in science research,
communications and stakeholder
relations. Her husband, Aleksan-
dar Sokolović joined the NGO soon
after, initially as a consultant before
becoming the head of organizational
development.
Milka Sokolović told POLITICO
that no evidence of discrimination
or harassment was found as part of
the external investigation into the
claims.
“It is difficult to understand re-
opening of this discussion after the
investigation has been finalised —
and found no [proof ] of the allega-
tions — unless there is an interest
in damaging EPHA, whatever the
motivation might be thereof,” she
said in a LinkedIn exchange.
EPHA hired Belgian law firm
Thales to look into the situation at
a cost of at least €60,000, a figure
that’s raised eyebrows among some
of EPHA’s 67 organizations whose
membership fees partly fund the
NGO.
But the probe alone wasn’t
enough to alleviate concerns, and
in fact led to further tension.
Programs Director Denis Onyango
stood down from the EPHA board
during the probe, writing in a res-
ignation letter seen by POLITICO
that he didn’t trust Thales’ inves-
tigation, saying it wasn’t transpar-
ent and didn’t cover all of the con-
cerns raised by ex-staffers.
He also criticized top managers
remaining in post while the inves-
tigation went on.
Thales told POLITICO that it
“strongly [denies]” those concerns
adding that its employees “adhere
to the highest ethical and profes-
sional standards.”

That same week, two more board
members stood down: Brian Ward
(who declined to comment when PO-
LITICO contacted him at the time),
and Vice President Freek Spinnewi-
jn, whose resignation email, seen by
POLITICO, said it was “impossible to
function as a board member whilst
under a cloud of suspicion.”
RESIGNATION RUSH
In early May, another board mem-
ber, Nicolas Philippou resigned as a
member of the board with immedi-
ate effect, an internal EPHA email
confirmed.
The then-President Alice Chap-
man-Hatchett stepped down in Feb-
ruary, citing private circumstances,
while Treasurer Claudia Marinetti
also left, telling POLITICO it was not
related to the probe and that she had
to “reprioritize [her] work.”
These departures have left the
NGO with just two members of the
board, now below the minimum of
three required by Belgian legislation.
But board members aren’t the only
people to have left.
Eight of EPHA’s expert advisers
— which include prestigious names
from across academia — left their
roles in unison in April, saying they
were “deeply concerned by recent
developments.”
Several more advisers have since
stood down, leaving just one expert
still in place.
“I was disappointed to see some-
thing that is so important for public
health in Europe managed as it was.
It’s a bitter disappointment,” one
former staffer told POLITICO.
‘TOP NOTCH’
Another flashpoint of tension
for EPHA came in April with the re-
lease of an “accountability report,”
one which listed the achievements
of the NGO since Sokolović’s arrival.
The report gave a positive picture,
praising a “tightly knit, fit-for-pur-
pose, functional team,” “watertight
funding and governance,” and “top
notch advocacy.”
The glowing language bemused
some — one person working in the
EU health sector described the tone
as “like Christ had descended to
EPHA.” But the timing infuriated
several of EPHA’s member organi-
zations, given it was published on
the day they were expecting to be
briefed on the outcome of the Thales
investigation.
Instead, they were told that only
the three remaining board members
at that time would have access to
the lawyers’ report, and members
were simply briefed that the probe
had found no evidence of discrimi-
nation or harassment and that Mil-
ka Sokolović had the full backing
of the board.
What is known is that the direc-
tor general’s husband Aleksandar
Sokolović — who had risen to be-
come a director within the organi-
zation — left the NGO following the
investigation.
No reason was given, angering
members, some of whom then
called for the director general to
be fired.
In response, Milka Sokolović told
POLITICO: “Based on the outcomes
of the investigation, but also based
on the work delivered so far, the
Board confirmed its confidence in
staff and myself as Director General,
emphasising my ‘important contri-
butions to EPHA in recent years.’”
She also said that the account-
ability report did not “paint a rosy
picture of a parallel universe.”
“They are facts that speak for the
work that I and the team have done
for this organisation so it can de-
liver on its mission,” Sokolović said.
She said that by the end of 2023,
These the NGO had more than doubled its
departures budget compared with 2020, mainly
through European funding, and had
have left the highest-ever number of grants
the NGO and projects.
with just ‘DEVASTATING DAMAGE’
EPHA told POLITICO in a state-
two mem- ment: “The anonymous email has
bers of the been taken extremely seriously by
the EPHA Board and Secretariat, and
board, now an independent legal firm was com-
below the missioned by the Board to investi-
gate its allegations in their entirety.”
minimum Only the three remaining board
members at the time had seen the
of three report, and they said that “no evi-
required dence was found of harassment, dis-
crimination, or a breach of labour
by Belgian or other Belgian law in EPHA,” the
legislation. NGO said.
“The fact that the letter’s allega-
tions are found to be without evi-
dence should bring closure to the
discussion. EPHA should now be
allowed to regroup its forces and
recover from the devastating dam-
age it has suffered in the last three
months.”
Philippou, one of the board mem-
bers who resigned, told POLITICO in
an email that a strong public health
alliance is “essential for Europe, and
EPHA has the potential to continue
playing a leading role.”
“I hope that events following my
resignation, combined with a con-
structive annual general assembly
(AGA, on June 6) that openly dis-
cusses all issues and elects a new
board, will help rebuild trust among
all stakeholders, including mem-
bers, EPHA staff, and senior man-
agement. A new board with a clear
mandate, elected at the upcoming
AGA, will be crucial for EPHA’s fu-
ture success,” he said.
May 23, 2024 Page 7
Before the probe was shared
with the board, EPHA informed
POLITICO of a letter from current
staff members to the board, which
POLITICO obtained separately. It
said: “We have witnessed our se-
nior management realising astound-
ing accomplishments over the past
three years. We are very proud of
the work they have done to bring
changes to EPHA.”
EPHA also has the renewed finan-
cial backing from the EU.
Around a quarter of its fund-
ing comes from an EU operating
grant (which in 2022 was worth
€555,000), and that has just been
reconfirmed by the European Com-
mission. In total, EPHA recorded a
2023 budget of €2.6 million.
Several member organizations
are considering quitting the NGO,
according to one person with knowl-
edge of the meeting of the board
and member organizations in April.
While that won’t make much of
a financial dent (membership fees
make up 3 percent of EPHA’s total
income), there is a risk of reputa-
tional damage from this episode.
The question is, where would
these members go? EPHA has man-
aged to build up a reputation for
itself as the go-to place for public
health advocacy in Brussels and
beyond.
“That’s why many are hesitant,”
said the person working in the Eu-
ropean health sector.
A representative of another EPHA
member organization who was pres-
ent at the meeting in April said the
NGO was “always a big family,” with
members “becoming friends, united
and one big community.”
“I am so sad to see EPHA dying.”
Additional reporting by Carlo Mar-
tuscelli and Sarah Wheaton.
 News
News
HOW GERMANY LOST THE BATTLE TO
PREVENT TARRIFS ON CHINESE CARS
The die was already cast
when Ursula von der Leyen
announced an EU probe
into market-distorting
subsidies for Chinese
electric vehicles last fall.
BY HANS VON DER BURCHARD
AND JULIA WACKET
IN BERLIN
Despite all the warnings about pro-
tectionism and a looming trade
war, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and top
German officials have realized that
they can’t stop the EU from slap-
ping tariffs on Chinese electric cars.
Last fall, European Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen an-
nounced a probe into market-dis-
torting subsidies for Chinese elec-
tric vehicles, marking a significant
hardening of the EU’s trade policy
toward Beijing. Eight months later,
there is little doubt left in Brussels
and Berlin that sufficient evidence
for such unfair state aid has been
found.
The Commission is expected to
impose preliminary anti-subsidy
duties on Chinese EVs by early
July, but rules require the EU to
already communicate such a de-
cision to carmakers — and other
parties like EU importers of Chi-
nese cars — four weeks in advance,
meaning that the announcement of
the upcoming tariffs is expected to
land in about two weeks.
Scholz’s government — driven by
fears of Chinese retaliation — has
warned repeatedly against impos-
ing the tariffs, which the chancel-
lor has described as “protection-
ist.” Earlier this month, Economy
Minister Robert Habeck said that
“the German automotive industry
in particular is very worried about
this, because it is to be expected
that the Chinese will then impose
tariffs on German imports.”
The subsidy probe has also pit-
ted Germany against France, with
Paris worrying that cheap Chinese
EVs could flood the European mar-
ket and put French carmakers in
the low- and mid-price segments
under pressure. German carmak-
ers, in contrast, sell more cars in
the premium sector, where they
don’t yet face strong Chinese com-
petition.
INCREASINGLY ISOLATED
Yet German officials have noted
that the mood among other EU
countries has in recent months in-
creasingly shifted in favor of the
French position.
Across Europe, frustration is
growing about unfair Chinese mar-
ket practices, which are seen as a
strategic tool to oust Western com-
petitors and dominate world mar-
kets in a host of green technologies,
from EVs to wind turbines, and to
the production of green hydrogen.
Scholz’s visit to Beijing last
month, during which the chancel-
lor tried in vain to convince Pres-
ident Xi Jinping to return to fair
competition, has also led to res-
ignation in Berlin, according to
three people briefed on the trip
who were granted anonymity as
they were not authorized to speak
May 23, 2024 Page 8
on the record.
Finally, the recent quadrupling
of U.S. tariffs on Chinese EVs, which
amplifies the pressure on Europe as
it is one of the few major markets
that remains open to Chinese car
imports, only augments the likeli-
hood of the EU also taking action.
“The pressure on Europe will
grow as a result of the Biden ad-
ministration’s decision,” said Re-
inhard Houben, the economic
policy spokesperson of the Free
Democratic Party (FDP), which
governs in Germany in a coalition
with Scholz’s Social Democrats and
Habeck’s Greens.
“We must not tolerate unfair sub-
sidy practices by the People’s Re-
public of China,” Houben added.
“The investigation by the Europe-
an Commission is, therefore, the
right thing to do and must now be
brought to a careful, but also swift,
conclusion.”
ELECTION CAMPAIGNING
What’s striking is that von der Ley-
en, a German conservative who is
now campaigning for a second term
as Commission chief, has decided
to turn the China subsidy probe
into an active part of her reelec-
tion campaign.
The message: The EU takes ac-
tion to protect its industries.”
“We like fair competition. What
we don’t like is when China floods
the market with massively subsi-
dized e-cars. We are taking action
against that,” she told a campaign
rally in Karlsruhe, in the state of
Baden-Württemberg — a bastion of
the German auto industry. She re-
peated the message at a convention
of her party, the Christian Demo-
cratic Union (CDU), in Berlin.
The four-week advance notice
period means that the announce-
ment of car tariffs is likely to come
just days ahead of the European
election being held from June 6-9.
We have to follow through now,”
said Daniel Caspary, the head of the
CDU delegation to the European
Parliament.
While the expected tariff an-
nouncement by the Commission
would only be preliminary and
have to be confirmed by a vote
of EU countries later this year to
establish permanent anti-subsidy
duties against China, one official
familiar with Berlin’s position con-
ceded that Scholz might struggle to
rally enough support to block the
final, definitive tariffs.
Doing so might require Berlin to
team up with countries like Hun-
gary, which has gained the dubi-
ous reputation of being Beijing’s
proxy, and cause a direct clash with
France. What’s more, the chancel-
lor may lack agreement in his ruling
coalition to vote against such tar-
iffs, as Habeck has endorsed them
— as long as the EU probe is done
with sufficient scrutiny.
One EU diplomat said that the
true battle over the car tariffs was
already lost for Germany last Sep-
tember, the very moment that von
der Leyen announced the anti-sub-
sidy probe.
“Behind the scenes, there had
been a battle going on between
Berlin and Paris [over] whether
to announce this or not,” the dip-
lomat said.
The fact that von der Leyen
launched the investigation —
which the Commission did on its
own initiative and not based on
a formal request by the industry
— meant that her services had al-
ready gathered sufficient evidence
The subsidy beforehand that made them confi-
probe has also dent that the probe would lead to
pitted Germany clear findings, the diplomat added.
against France. “You don’t launch such a thing
and then say, ‘Oh, sorry, we actu-
STR/AFP VIA
GETTY IMAGES ally didn’t find anything.’”
 Page 9 May 23, 2024
LE PEN’S NATIONAL RALLY WON’T
SIT WITH ALTERNATIVE FOR
GERMANY IN EU PARLIAMENT
The French far-right party
did not specify what this
means for its future in
the ID group in the EU
Parliament.
BY VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT,
EDDY WAX AND SARAH PAILLOU
IN PARIS
Less than three weeks before the
EU election and Europe’s far right
appears to be in crisis after France’s
National Rally said it won’t sit along-
side Germany’s Alternative for Ger-
many (AfD) party in the next Euro-
pean Parliament.
“Following recent statements by
the AfD, we will not be sitting with
them during the next mandate in the
European Parliament,” Caroline Par-
mentier, a National Rally lawmaker
and EU campaign press officer, told
POLITICO in a written statement,
confirming a report in Libération.
The French party, led by Marine
Le Pen, has spent years trying to ap-
peal to mainstream voters and dis-
tance itself from its far-right past,
while the AfD has taken increasingly
hardline views.
Both the French and German
parties are members of the Iden-
Interested in partnership
opportunities? Contact us at
summits@politico.eu
APPLY FOR YOUR
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News
tity and Democracy (ID) group in
the EU Parliament, which is pre-
dicted to enjoy a surge in support The party
in the June election. Parmentier did
not specify if the National Rally was
has spent
planning on leaving ID or if it would years trying
seek to have the German far-right
party expelled. to appeal to
“This will have no impact on ID in
a future mandate, as we have enough
mainstream
nationalities to maintain our politi- voters and
cal group,” said an adviser to Le Pen,
who spoke on condition of anonym-
distance
ity. “We have informed our allies that itself from
we do not wish to sit with them [AfD]
in forming the next group.” its far-right
At the time of writing, POLITICO’s
Poll of Polls has ID finishing fourth
past.
in the EU election, but just one seat
behind the liberals of Renew. That
could all change if these two par-
ties are split.
The French decision follows an
interview with Maximilian Krah in
the Italian daily La Repubblica in
which the AfD lead candidate said
he would “never say that anyone
who wore an SS uniform was auto- A Krah aide said he could not ing] because they don’t want to work
matically a criminal,” a reference to comment because he did not know longer with the ID. This could … be
German novelist Günter Grass, who what the French delegation intend- quite harmful [to the French del-
admitted late in his life to having ed to do. “We don’t consider Günter egation].”
joined the Waffen-SS as a teenager. Grass a criminal,” the aide added. “Until now decisions were always
Anders Vistisen, a Danish far-right An ID group official, granted an- taken in a common accord among all
MEP whose party is also in the ID onymity to speak freely, said: “We the national delegations of which the
group, called on the AfD to “get rid can also read this decision as say- French delegation is one. Times are
of Krah” or to leave the group al- ing that RN [National Rally] wants quite crazy, everyone is nervous,”
OSCAR DEL POZO/
together. GETTY IMAGES to go to the non-attached [group- the official added.
JUNE 26 Join us for a premiere gathering of crucial policy makers, economic and financial
services experts, and industry leaders.
LONDON
& ONLINE The City of London has long been the world’s leading financial centre; a hub of
international investment and a magnet for global talent. In this pivotal election
year, the City’s standing on the world stage could be set to soar or stagnate, with
post-Brexit challenges and geopolitical instability.
D I SCOVE R OU R H E A D L IN IN G SP E A K E R S
B IM AFOLA MI MP
HEL ENE PA NZ AR I NO
associate director, Centre for Digital Banking and Finance
LORD W I LLE TTS
president of advisory council, Resolution Foundation
LORD L IL LE Y
member, Financial Services Regulation Committee
STEL LA CR EASY MP
TU L IP SI D DIQ MP
Shadow Economic Secretary to the Treasury
 Special report

Bots and ballots: The politics of AI

How artificial intelligence is reshaping elections worldwide.

AI FLEXES ITS
ELECTION BONA
FIDES AND HUNTS
FOR CUSTOMERS
Billions BY MARK SCOTT
IN LONDON
of voters
Sitting in an unseasonably warm
head to the park in the British capital, Hannah
polls this O’Rourke cuts an unusual figure as an
year — and artificial intelligence advocate.
consultants, The thirty-something activist has
spent much of her early career cham-
advocates pioning greater rights for workers and
and even lobbied the British government
nonprofits on behalf of students during the Co-
vid-19 pandemic. But ahead of the
want to United Kingdom’s general election —
use the now expected in the fall — O’Rourke is
emerging channeling her inner tech bro.
Throughout monthly hackathons,
tech to O’Rourke and other progressive com-
reach puter scientists at Campaign Lab,
them. a nonprofit that she co-founded,
But the whipped up an AI-powered chatbot.
Designed with different personalities
success and varying emotions, it helps volun-
of such teers learn how to best interact with
campaigns potentially skeptical voters on the
campaign trail.
is far from Another crowdsourced project
clear. relied on AI tools to track political
discussions on TikTok. A third used
off-the-shelf AI technology to help
confused voters decipher the labyrin-
thine website of the country’s election
commission.
“There are some interesting, cre-
ative AI solutions that can help hu-
mans do better at things like cam-
paigning,” O’Rourke said over coffee
last month on a sweltering spring day
in South London — with kids laugh- Just like a decade ago, when cam- backed an AI avatar — pretending to publican aide who, while later work-
ing at a nearby playground and com- paigns rode the incoming social media be a candidate in the country’s Feb- ing at Facebook, helped educate law-
muters grabbing a drink on their way wave to talk directly to voters, politi- ruary election — that would answer makers on the social media network’s
home from work. “Ultimately, people cal operatives in the current age of AI people’s political questions without campaigning potential during the ear-
who want to do bad things will be us- are turning to chatbots, automated fear of imprisonment. lier election-engulfing tech craze.
ing AI,” she added. “So the question voter-targeting tools and other AI- Not all of this will pan out. Commer- “The problem for campaigns is
is: How do we, as people who want powered wizardry to eke out a po- cial vendors searching for new mar- that they don’t know who’s delivering
to do good things, use this tool in a tential edge at the polls in 2024. kets are eagerly pitching their untest- snake oil or who’s got the real deal,”
way that is in accordance with what ed wares to tech-illiterate campaigns, she added.
A MAD DASH FOR NEW TECH
we think is right?” often enamored by promises of what
AI CAMPAIGNING — FOR HIRE
O’Rourke is not alone. Amid the In Pakistan, jailed former leader Im- AI can offer them. Other firms have
hype around AI — which went into ran Khan ran a national election via rebranded long-standing campaign Randy Saaf and Octavio Herrera have
overdrive in late 2022 when OpenAI campaign speeches and videos pow- practices — like targeting people on a basic pitch whenever they try to sell
released ChatGPT to the world — cam- ered by generative AI tools. In Indone- social media based on their personal their software: They create an AI-pow-
paigners, academics and private com- sia, ex-military chief — and alleged war interests or using data to decipher vot- ered clone of the potential customer’s
panies have quickly jumped onto the criminal — Prabowo Subianto created ers’ intentions — as newfangled AI ser- voice.
bandwagon of tech’s next big thing. an AI-generated cartoon of himself as vices in the hopes of striking it rich. The two techies started by helping
That includes those seeking an ad- part of a rebrand en route to winning Even campaigners like O’Rourke music labels, in the early 2000s, to
vantage in the bumper crop of elec- the country’s February presidential admit that, as politicians rush to keep stop companies like Napster, the mu-
tions planned this year — from those election. up with the latest trends, they must sic-sharing service made famous in the
in Bangladesh and Pakistan earlier in In India, incumbent Prime Min- be careful not to rely too heavily on dot-com era, from pirating their con-
2024 to the European Parliament vote ister Narendra Modi turned to AI to a technology that may overpromise tent. But when ChatGPT took the pub-
in June to the November presidential automatically translate his stump or underdeliver for everyday citizens. lic’s imagination by storm in late 2022,
election in the United States. Others speeches into multiple local languages “Every vendor is always trying to the California-based team smelled an
ILLUSTRATION want to retrofit AI tools to detect po- during the country’s ongoing vote. find some edge, the next new thing,”
BY ROB DOBI
FOR POLITICO tential electoral harm. In Belarus, the country’s opposition said Katie Harbath, a former U.S. Re- SEE CAMPAIGNS ON PAGE 13

IN DEVELOPING
BY MARK SCOTT
When it comes to artificial intelli-
COUNTRIES, A
gence’s role in elections, it’s easy to
get lost in a sea of buzzwords, tech
industry jargon and murky political
activity.
AI-generated deepfakes. Large lan-
guage models. Recommendation algo-
STRUGGLE TO
rithms powering social media.
But behind the rise of this emerg-
ing technology lies a sea of election
officials, civil society groups and fact-
checking organizations from Peru to
TACKLE ABUSES
the Philippines — all trying to corral
potential abuses of AI while, at the
same time, attempting to harness the
technology to improve how elections
operate worldwide.
It’s not an easy task.
Ever-changing technical advances,
limited budgets and breathtaking hys-
teria around what AI can supposedly
How officials, campaigners and fact- do have created endless difficulties for
checkers tackle AI’s influence on elections. those on the front line of protecting
global elections from AI-fueled disin-
formation.
Below are the stories of three such
individuals from South Africa, Pakistan
and Argentina, respectively.
While the “Bots and Ballots” se-
ries has primarily focused on more
advanced Western economies, it’s in
the so-called Global Majority — those in
developing and middle-income coun-
tries — where the technology has taken
off the fastest with little, if any, regula-
tory oversight. Many of these countries
have fragile democratic institutions,
limited technical capacity and minimal
contact with AI tech giants to make
their voices heard.
What follows is merely a snapshot
of more than a dozen interviews that
POLITICO conducted with such groups
and individuals from Indonesia to Cos-
ta Rica. What became clear from these
discussions was a real-time effort to
both understand and corral new forms
of technology that are having a sizable
influence on society — but within sig-
May 23, 2024 Page 11
PRESENTED BY
nificant constraints on budgets, techni-
cal know-how and knowledge.
THE REGULATOR
Janet Love has a busy week ahead of
her. As head of South Africa’s Inde-
pendent Election Commission, the
government agency in charge of the
country’s nationwide election on May
29, the longtime official must oversee
the inner workings of ballot counting,
election monitoring and various oth-
er technical work in a country whose
democratic credentials have frayed in
the decades since the apartheid regime
collapsed.
Into that mix, Love — a onetime
member of the paramilitary wing of
the African National Congress — must
come to terms with the rise of artifi-
cial intelligence, including so-called
deepfakes, and political attacks on
social media.
“It’s tough. I’m not going to say we
feel all is great,” she admitted over a
Zoom call in early May. “Our capac-
ity to [respond to] disinformation and
misinformation has really increased.
But I don’t want to give you a sense
that we feel all is dealt with.”
Pan-African guidelines for social me-
dia and elections, published in March,
partly explain Love’s equal feelings of
hope and caution. They outline volun-
tary commitments — for election com-
missions, political parties, tech com-
panies and civil society groups — for
how the continent’s elections can be
safeguarded from digital threats. That
includes how best to promote legiti-
mate election information on social
media to would-be voters and the need
for greater transparency on the latest
advances in AI.
In South Africa, a local civil society
group oversees an online portal where
locals can report online disinformation
— including a direct line to the coun-
try’s election commission if such false-
hoods may undermine the upcoming
vote. Platforms like Facebook, You-
Tube and TikTok — but, according to
Love, not Elon Musk’s X — have pro-
actively pushed authentic information
about the election, though widespread
falsehoods still get through, according
to local fact-checking groups.
When it comes to artificial intelli-
gence, Love acknowledges her agency
is entering the unknown.
“I think there is a lot of concern be-
cause it’s uncharted terrain,” she ad-
mitted. “We really have ramped out
our own capacity, but also encouraged
other players to work as actively as
possible, not just with the public, but
also with competitors.”
Still, just days before South Africans
head to the polls, Love concedes her
agency’s efforts are still a work in prog-
ress. She doesn’t have the regulatory
power to force Big Tech companies to
the table. The level of understanding,
within the government, political par-
ties, and the electorate, of the digital
risks is often far from ideal.
“All of us are feeling a huge need for
greater capacity and expertise,” she
said. “The difference between having
appropriate measures in place, and ca-
pacities to implement those measures
— you feel it all the time.”
THE CAMPAIGNER
When Imran Khan, the former crick-
eting icon-turned-imprisoned politi-
SEE GLOBAL ON PAGE 14
 Special report

Bots and ballots: The politics of AI

How artificial intelligence is reshaping elections worldwide.

HOW BIG TECH

By the numbers Amazon: The ‘Amazonian’ way
More than anything, the data shows a repetition of clear policy
jargon — “responsible AI,” “frontier models,” “AI governance” —
that lies at the heart of each company’s lobbying. Most of that

FIRMS LOBBY
is indecipherable to those not working on the front line of how
countries, companies, academics and civil society groups are
trying to corral the technology into some form of structure.

Interestingly, in this year of global elections, terms associated

AND PROMOTE
with voting protection and integrity did not play a central role
in companies’ public statements.

Aleph Alpha, the “sovereign” salesman: The Heidelberg-

based tech firm has pitched itself as Europe’s homegrown
champion.
ALEPH It’s played
ALPHA'S up its credentials in so-called sovereign
NARRATIVE

THEIR AI TOOLS
AI, anmost
Words effort
oftento offer the
appearing Continent
together across thean alternative
Aleph tomessages
Alpha lobbying relying on
foreignbyproviders
analyzed POLITICO. of the emerging technology.

Innovation Park Arti cial Intelligence

enterprises governments
half a billion U.S. dollars
AI technology
new investors
arti cial intelligence

Aleph Alpha
large language models
industry leaders
AI start-up AI systems

sovereign AI
EU AI AI act language model
AI language
Luminous model
Jonas Andrulis
generative AI political compromise

new generation language models Bosch ventures

From BY MARK SCOTT trustworthy AI

AI technologies
explainable trustworthy
AND HANNE COKELAERE billion parameters
Schwarz group complex critical

safety-first European AI

Wherever you look, tech giants want
to sales to be seen doing the right thing when
pitches, it comes to artificial intelligence.
AI Meta and OpenAI published
lengthy treaties detailing how they’re
companies
protecting this year’s global election
speak for cycle from harm. New kids on the
themselves. block — France’s Mistral and the Unit-
ed States’ Inflection AI — espoused
SOURCE: POLITICO research Hanne Cokelaere
Alphabet, meeting everyone’s needs: The parent company
of Google, YouTube and Gemini — its in-house rival to OpenAI’s
ChatGPT — has tried to talk to as many parts of the AI world as
ALPHABET'S NARRATIVE
possible. That includes promoting AI safety to policymakers,
Words most often appearing together across the Alphabet lobbying
inclusivity to civil society groups, and innovation and research.
messages analyzed by POLITICO.
civil society
arti cial intelligence responsible development
$10 million

what-if tool
learning models AI principles
their “safety first” approach to the opportunity agenda
machine learning economic growth
AI tools Chris Meserole

emerging technology. Old-school

responsible AI
frontier AI
AI opportunity best practices ml models bad actors
training data

titan Amazon wanted everyone to

AI technologies
health care
new AI

know it was building its own AI sys-

Vertex AI

tems responsibly.
small businesses
generative AI frontier model AI safety AI models
Google cloud
model forum AI systems
Amid such policy jargon, it’s easy deploy AI red teaming
AI research
explainable AI

developing countries
AI sprinters

to get lost. use AI safety fund

AI explanations
POLITICO set out to cut through
AutoML tables
feature attributions

the noise to determine the leading

AI companies’ talking points. Many SOURCE: POLITICO research Hanne Cokelaere
Amazon, the “Amazonian” way: The Seattle-based giant is
of these lines were front and center
renowned for its penny-pinching ways and obsessive focus on
when firms’ executives set out to con- AMAZON'S NARRATIVE
its customers above anything else. It has primarily focused its
vince lawmakers worldwide that they
publicmost
Words statements on promoting
often appearing its technology
together across the Amazontolobbying
speed up
could be trusted with fast-paced AI
cloud computing
messages and
analyzed by its other geeky products.
POLITICO.
innovation.
To that end, we pulled together Amazon CodeWhisperer around world
using AI

numerous AI-related public policy

AI machine review fake
sector organizations
advancing generative guardrails Amazon carbon footprint
arti cial intelligence machine learning
documents, technical specifications
AI models generative arti cial
safety institute use cases AI help
foundation models

generative AI
SageMaker clarify
use AI
and company terms and conditions
safe secure intelligence safety
committed developing
AI model

from nine of the West’s leading arti-

trading partners models llms
services AWS

Amazon Bedrock
development AI
Meta, the open-source cheerleader: The parent company of
AI systems
AI ml AI applications
ficial intelligence companies over the
fm responses
Amazon Titan secure AI
responsible secure
large language
public sector responsible AI AWS NVIDIA
Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp is no stranger to bruising
last two years.
harmful content
help customers responsible use
health care
Amazon SageMaker
global
META'S policy fights. But Meta has centered its AI development
NARRATIVE
These included statements from
fake reviews models FMs language models AI/ml services
web services intelligence AI safe responsible AI technologies
use case
inappropriate content Amazon web
on so-called open-source technology, systems that can be
OpenAI, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and
White House
responsible development responsible innovation
Words most often appearing together across the Meta lobbying messages
readily harnessed by the many, not just a select few.
Microsoft, as well as their smaller ri- analyzed by POLITICO.
vals Mistral, Aleph Alpha, Inflection SOURCE: POLITICO research Hanne Cokelaere intelligent robots di*erent demographic groups safety evaluations

AI and Anthropic. Anthropic, playing in the major leagues: The AI startup socially intelligent potential risks human partners

facebook instagram
machine learning
humanoid avatars
language models
We then crunched the data to mea- started by former OpenAI execs has pitched itself as the
generative AI
image generation
AI model large language model
ANTHROPIC'S
responsible voice NARRATIVE
in AI governance. That has given it a seat at
reinforcement learning
AI system
open approach

sure the raw frequency of words com- mountain biking transparency control

Meta AI
best practices
Words most often appearing
the policymaking together
table nextacross the Anthropic
to Meta lobbying messages analyzed
and Microsoft.
Llama Guard open trust use case

monly appearing in AI-related state- by POLITICO.

Stable Signature open source new content

ments from these companies over Llama 2 AI models

training data

AI systems Llama 3
AI technology
AI people
industry government systems work AI agents use cases speci+c use
Meta Llama
that time period. The goal: figuring
cybersecurity practices U.S. government necessary safety AI development
embodied AI
safety security responses AI model developers
catastrophic risks less harmful United States AI e*orts improving fairness
powerful models models AI use guide
physical world Habitat 3
regulatory capture

out, when push came to shove, these

frontier model evaluating AI risks AI personal data open science

system cards responsible AI

Anthropic RSP set principles constitutional AI testing regime model cards
AI company risk threshold AI safety
AI assistant
AI models AI safety helpful honest development process

companies’ exact repeated talking

AI developers
national security
race top

AI systems
house commitments
advanced AI model card
harmful o*ensive AI community responsible use speech recognition trust safety age gender
AI labs Claude 2 disclosure process
prompts outputs AI policy government agencies e*ective third-party help people foundation model build responsibly

points, and how they differed.

fairness robustness
third parties AI research product development
training data
best practices generative AI mitigate risks socially responsible proposed algorithm
AI sector publicly available

Not every company had made the frontier AI red teaming

White House
AI model
scaling policy open ecosystem
code conduct
use cases asl system
AI research model development

Microsoft, public wonk overload: The maker of Word and

teaming AI increasingly powerful
use policy
third-party testing Claude 3
trust safety

same number of public statements.

catastrophic risk human feedback
development deployment AI accountability
responsible scaling frontier threats red teaming model capabilities

Outlook isn’t messing around with its message on AI.Hanne In Cokelaere

arti+cial intelligence
SOURCE: POLITICO research
So we limited the data gathering to a
language models private companies
acceptable use dangerous capabilities openly accessible
response harmless
catastrophic misuse testing evaluation openly disseminated

scores of documents, many of which were aimed directly

executive order
asl level policy rsp

maximum of the 100 most common

test evaluation
frontier models language model
cybersecurity best

at policymakers and politicians, Microsoft overdid it on key

words, and then edited the results
to include two-word combinations
(like generative AI) and removed
stock language (like companies’ ad-
dresses) that could skew the results.
SOURCE: POLITICO research Hanne Cokelaere buzzwords like “responsible AI,” “risk management,” and “AI
MICROSOFT'S NARRATIVE
Infl ection AI,AI'S
making it personal: The California-based governance.” Of all the companies surveyed, the American
INFLECTION NARRATIVE Words most often appearing together across the Microsoft lobbying messages analyzed
company has heavily promoted its AI-powered personal tech giant got the most mileage out of such jargon.
Words most often appearing together across the In ection AI lobbying messages by POLITICO.
assistant to differentiate itself in an already crowded market.
analyzed by POLITICO. challenges opportunities
development frontier stakeholder feedback opportunities around
codesigning checklists

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information checklist
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BY ROB DOBI
cal order.
AI-generated material help advance production system solicit input uses applications
arti cial intelligence engineering teams

FOR POLITICO personal intelligence copilot copyright

many opportunities

SOURCE: POLITICO research Hanne Cokelaere

SOURCE: POLITICO research Hanne Cokelaere
 May 23, 2024 Page 13

the next day. By early April, their com-
pany had started protecting Swalwell’s
social media content from the threat
of AI-generated deepfakes. (Neither
Saaf nor Herrera would reveal the AI
service’s cost.)
Herrera, Saaf’s co-founder, is real-
istic about the uphill challenge they
face — even if there are potentially bil-
lions of dollars already earmarked for
campaign funding in the U.S. alone
ahead of November’s election. The
pitch, he added, often includes mock-
ing up a quick clone of a lawmaker’s
voice, demonstrating what the tech-
nology can do to rebuff such efforts,
and then quickly turning to more
tech-literate staffers to figure out the
specifics. “That can take months,” he
conceded, “and, unfortunately, the
election is coming quickly.”
On the other side of the Atlan-
tic, Vilnius-based Simona Vasytė-
Kudakauskė has a similar problem.
As head of Perfection42, a boutique
consultancy using so-called large lan-
guage models to create thousands of
pieces of AI-generated content for ad-
vertising agencies and brands world-
wide, Vasytė-Kudakauskė also wants
to tap into the technology’s potential
for political campaigns.
Where many have focused on the
risks — the deepfakes of politicians
and the targeting of voters via algo-
rithms — she argues that such tac-
tics can also be harnessed to better
reach would-be voters. In that world,
Vasytė-Kudakauskė adds, AI can auto-
matically translate digital campaign
material into multiple languages;
quickly generate political images for
pennies on the dollar; and even tailor
specific messages on social media to
lure undecided voters.
“We work with some commercial
agencies to create visual content, and
elections are also just an advertise-
ment campaign,” she said via a Google
Meet video conference call earlier this
month. “It’s the same, but in a dif-
ferent way for a different purpose.”
That may sound plausible — in the-
ory. But the reality of political cam-
paigning — especially ahead of the up-
coming European Parliament election
Mistral, the hustling French upstart: When you think of
in June, when the bloc’s 27 member
France’s approach to technology, top-down regulation, not
grassroots innovation,
MISTRAL'S NARRATIVEmay first come to mind. But Mistral —
fresh off deals with both Microsoft and Amazon — has been
Campaigns countries will hold separate, simulta-
neous votes — is completely different.
Words most often appearing together across the Mistral lobbying messages analyzed by Despite Perfection42’s pitch,
keen to promote a business-first stance.
POLITICO. CONTINUED FROM PAGE 12 Vasytė-Kudakauskė admitted that,
Azure AI Studio AI infrastructure
with only a little more than two weeks
Mixtral 8x22b
opportunity. Within months, they left until the EU election, her consul-
nonprofit got off the ground.
The American tech entrepreneur
and AI academic was at a meeting
in San Francisco last summer with
a notable headliner: U.S. President
Joe Biden.
During a discussion with other ex-
perts, Etzioni told POLITICO, each
went around the room to describe
a so-called moonshot project, or an
exciting idea they were working on.
As he awaited his turn, the researcher
realized that — in this year of global
elections — there wasn’t a good way
to quickly detect deepfakes for mass
awareness.
“There really wasn’t an adequate
tool available to the press, available to
fact-checkers, and to the public to as-
sess when you see an image, video or
audio, whether it’s a deepfake or not,”
said Etzioni. “We set out to build one.”
Commercial providers like Reality
Defender or Sensity AI already charge
hefty fees for such detection. But with-
in months, Etzioni had tapped Gar-
rett Camp, a co-founder of Uber, for
funding and created TrueMedia.org.
The nonprofit splices together the
detection tools of its fee-charging ri-
vals and its own in-house methods to
give users a percentage score to gauge
how likely it is that an image, video or
audio clip is fake. People can insert a
web link to suspicious content or up-
load material directly. TrueMedia then
rates the probability that something is
AI-generated — though Etzioni admits
the findings aren’t perfect.
When POLITICO used the free
service, for instance, the system was
able to detect about 85 percent of the
deepfakes.
Etzioni said that, as of May, thou-
sands of people — from academics and
journalists to election officials and U.S.
federal government staffers — were us-
ing his product. He would not say how
much it took to run the detection tool.
But costs, according to the AI expert,
had come down as TrueMedia’s AI
systems were trained on increasingly
larger numbers of queries.
“It is, by design — now and in the
future — a money-losing proposition,”
he admitted — again declining to com-
ment on his plans for the service af-
ter the U.S.’s November election. “Our
idea is to be a public service, and pub-
lic services have a cost.”
For Kate Dommett, a professor
of digital politics at the University of
Sheffield in the U.K., the rise of AI

Mistral AI
partnership Microsoft Microsoft Mistral
Mistral 7b
had built a tool known as Wolfsbane tancy had yet to sign up a single cam- tools dedicated to this year’s election
open model
machine learning

AI, which embedded digital markers paign for its AI-powered offering. cycle — from commercial vendors and
responsible AI
model catalog
frontier models

generative AI into audio and video content, making POLITICO’s discussions with mul- nonprofits alike — represents the start-
Le Chat Azure AI
AI solutions AI models
AI studio open solutions
open source open models it impossible to clone such material via tiple other agencies across the EU also ing gun, not the finishing line, in the
generative models Mistral Large arti cial intelligence artificial intelligence. Users can upload failed to uncover specific campaigns technology’s evolution.
proprietary solutions open future for intelligence

content onto the startup’s platform, that had used outside consultants to Dommett is an expert in how politi-
SOURCE: POLITICO research Hanne Cokelaere
protecting audio and video clips from supplement traditional campaigning cal campaigns worldwide have tapped
OpenAI, where everyone looks first: The release of its potential harm. tactics with AI — although several can- into the latest tech advances. Amid the
ChatGPT product in late 2022 has led OpenAI to a surge of “We created it around the enter- didates had experimented, internally, AI hype, she remains skeptical that
OPENAI'S
geeky researchNARRATIVE
publications detailing how its systems were tainment industry, but quickly real- with generating content via tools like the current cohort of services, espe-
developed,
Words as well
most often as a greater
appearing togetherfocus
acrossthan many lobbying
the openAI rivals on ized this is a major security problem ChatGPT. “You can personalize con- cially those offering an inside track
reducing the potential
messages analyzed downsides to AI.
by POLITICO. for deepfakes,” Saaf told POLITICO via tent for your users, not just for bad into reaching people on social media
preparedness team
a Zoom link from his home office in influence, but also for good influence,” via complex algorithms and so-called
users developers
AI infrastructure
sexual abuse
con&dential computing
training data
voting information Los Angeles. “That’s when we started said the Lithuanian, quickly pivoting data analytics, is anything more than
getting interested in reaching out to when POLITICO questioned why her smoke and mirrors.
personal information audio visual content trusted computing
security measures content moderation openAI api
safety risks
research community

political figures.” company — despite its effort to por- It’s more consultants repurposing
use cases safety utility

frontier AI AI safety biological threat

real-world use
red teaming best practices
human participants malicious actors
model weights threat creation

So far, Saaf and Herrera have tray the positives of AI for campaign- existing services with an AI label, she
AI systems
model misuse
design principles AI technology AI tools
AI models usedmodel outputs
services AI system

ing — had yet to find any takers. “For added, than something truly revolu-
AI development

signed up just one lawmaker, U.S.

publicly available
content policies highly capable factual accuracy
people use generative AI
capable AI

Democratic Representative Eric some reason, people aren’t doing that. tionary.
use AI safety security
language model
language models
safety policy new AI societal risks
information access
child sexual public input
Swalwell — a Californian who sits on They are losing the war because they “It feels so early, it’s really hard to
building blocks
system behavior information sharing
child safety
development deployment in'uence operations protect advanced
preparedness challenge

the House of Representatives’ Home- are not playing on the same ground.” know what’s really going on,” said
safety misuse threat actors
cyber defense
large language models advanced AI AI developers
safe AI
model training

making commitment
Dommett. “Many of these tools are
model capabilities

land and Judiciary committees. In De-

safety design AI accelerators
powerful AI human moderators
agentic AI voluntary commitments
AN AI MOONSHOT
preparedness framework
dangerous capabilities

cember, the duo heard him speaking quite glitchy. I just don’t think we’re
secure infrastructure intellectual property
state-a(liated actors
content policy

about the threat AI posed to election Oren Etzioni has the ultimate flex at the point, yet, where we can truly
Source:POLITICO
SOURCE: POLITICO research
research Hanne Cokelaere/POLITICO
Hanne Cokelaere security — and cold-called his office when describing how his AI-focused trust them to actually do a good job.”
 Special report
Bots and ballots: The politics of AI
How artificial intelligence is reshaping elections worldwide.
Global
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 13
cian, did unexpectedly well in Paki-
stan’s February nationwide election
— in part because of his use of genera-
tive AI — many locals cheered. And it
was not just the independent candi-
dates who had supported him. Average
voters, many of whom had received
AI-cloned voice messages from Khan,
sent directly to their smartphones via
WhatsApp, were also over the moon.
His message urged them to head to
the polls in February’s vote.
“That had a huge impact,” said
Nighat Dad, founder of the Digital
Rights Foundation, a local nonprof-
it organization based in Lahore, via
Zoom last week. “People could listen
to the voice of Imran Khan telling them
what to do was a big deal.”
Dad is less optimistic than many of
her compatriots about how generative
AI has seeped into society in the elec-
tion’s wake.
In the recent campaign, Khan —
behind bars for leaking state secrets,
alongside other charges that he refutes
— spoke directly to supporters nation-
wide via AI-powered videos, speeches
and audio messages. It was arguably
the first time in history that generative
AI had directly affected an election re-
sult, mostly because the former prime
minister could not campaign from his
prison cell.
Yet Dad, who also sits on Meta’s
Oversight Board, or independent adju-
dicator of what posts can be published
on Facebook and Instagram, worries
that too many people are focusing
only on the positives of AI — and not
the technology’s potential downsides.
“The overwhelming debate, at the
moment, is, ‘Oh, we can use AI in this
sector, or in that sector,‘” she said. “Not
many people are talking about harms.”
The campaigner has two primary
concerns.
In the final days of the election, both
Khan’s candidates and their opponents
flooded social media with deepfakes,
mostly falsely claiming the other side
was forgoing the election. Such disin-
formation has been rife for years. But
as Khan’s use of AI garnered political
attention, all campaigns jumped on
that bandwagon, and many of their
posts went viral.
“People were sharing [those AI-gen-
erated posts] even if they knew it was
fake,” Dad added.
The other, more worrying trend is
what the technology will mean for the
country’s minority groups and women
in the years to come.
Already, in the months after the
election, several female social media
influencers have been attacked via
sexualized deepfakes — a potential di-
rect threat to their personal security in
such a conservative Islamic country.
People from non-Muslim religions, too,
have been targeted with AI-powered
forgeries, including some that falsely
showed these individuals committing
blasphemy. Such acts can hypotheti-
cally lead to a death sentence — even
if they are 100 percent fake.
“My real concern is, to be hon-
est, not really political parties and
how they’re using it,” said the Paki-
stani campaigner. “My real concern
is marginalized groups and how the
fakes and generative AI content will
be used against them.”
THE DEBUNKER
Laura Zommer has a love-hate relation-
ship with artificial intelligence.
The Argentine fact-checker, whose
organization, Factchequeado, has ex-
panded to debunk Spanish-language
falsehoods throughout Latin America
and the United States, has relied on
the technology for years to speed up
her work.
In 2017, she began using so-called
machine-learning tools — a form of AI
— to analyze large amounts of poten-
tially dubious social media posts. More
recently, her team even created an
in-house tool, called El Monitor (The
Monitor), to find connections between
disinformation campaigns to uncover
those behind spreading falsehoods.
“We don’t listen to interviews any-
more,” she admitted earlier this month
over Zoom, as Zommer drove from her
Buenos Aires home to the airport to
catch a flight to New York. “Because
the robots can do that for us and iden-
tify what needs to be checked.”
Still, it’s not all good news.
Latin America is in the throes of an
ongoing series of elections. It started in
October with Argentina’s national elec-
tion, and continues with a presiden-
tial runoff in Mexico next month and
Brazilian local elections in October.
Unlike their English-speaking North
American counterparts, Latinos rely
more heavily on messaging platform
WhatsApp for news and to keep in
touch with friends and family. That
platform, Zommer adds, is difficult to
monitor because many conversations
are encrypted. Circulating fact-checks,
too, is equally difficult.
Factchequeado’s analysts report
an ongoing drumbeat of AI-powered
lies, though it’s a more complex pic-
ture than that of English-language fact-
checking groups. For now, Spanish-
language deepfakes are significantly
cruder than those generated in Eng-
lish, Zommer said. That means there’s
an over-indexing of English-language
deepfakes targeting Latinos, while
those in Spanish are pretty low-grade.
“What I’m more worried about is
audio,” she said. Many Spanish speak-
ers stay connected with loved ones
overseas via short audio messages,
and the Argentine frets that a sea of
deepfake audio clips are already tar-
geting that community. “A lot of it is
just [financial] scams,” Zommer added.
With more elections on the horizon,
including the one in the U.S. in No-
vember, the Argentinian fact-checker
says disinformation merchants are test-
ing the waters with different AI tactics
aimed at Latinos.
One includes widely circulated
deepfake videos of Jorge Ramos, a fa-
mous television presenter for Univi-
sion, a Spanish-language television net-
work. Those AI-generated clips involve
Ramos falsely claiming U.S. President
Joe Biden has earmarked federal fund-
ing for immigrants. Others ask would-
be victims to click on links to receive
payouts that allow hackers to poten-
tially access individuals’ bank accounts
and personal information.
“They are testing out what works,”
said Zommer, adding that it was still
unclear who was behind such AI-in-
spired attacks. “So far, it’s mainly been
about making money. That has been
their focus.”
IN THE AGE OF
AI, KEEP CALM
AND VOTE ON
ANALYSIS BY MARK SCOTT
When I started this series on artifi-
cial intelligence, disinformation and
Amid global elections, I had a pretty clear
deepfakes picture in mind.
and fake It came down to this: While AI had
garnered people’s imagination — and
news, the likes of deepfakes and other AI-
voters’ generated falsehoods were starting
better to bubble to the surface — the tech-
judgment nology did not yet represent a step
change in how politically motivated
is likely to lies, often spread via social media,
prevail. would alter the mega-election cycle
engulfing the world in 2024.
Now, after nine stories and report-
ing trips from Chișinău to Seattle, I
haven’t seen anything that would
alter that initial view. But things, as
always, are more complicated — and
more volatile — than I first believed.
What’s clear, based on more than
100 interviews with policymakers,
government officials, tech execu-
tives and civil society groups, is that
the technology — specifically, genera-
tive AI — is getting more advanced
by the day.
During the course of my reporting,
I was shown deepfake videos, pur-
portedly portraying global leaders
like U.S. President Joe Biden and his
French counterpart Emmanuel Ma-
cron, that were indistinguishable from
the real thing. They included politi-
cians allegedly speaking in multiple
languages and saying things that, if
true, would have ended their careers.
They were so lifelike that it would
take a lot to convince anyone with-
out deep technical expertise that an
algorithm had created them.
Despite being a tech reporter,
I’m not a fanboy of technology. But
the speed of AI advancements, and
their ease of use by those with little,
if any, computer science background,
should give us all pause for concern.
This editorial The second key theme that sur-
series, prised me from this series was how
presented by much oversight had been outsourced
Luminate, is to companies — many of which were
produced with the same firms that created the AI
full editorial systems that could be used for harm.
independence More than 25 tech giants have now
by POLITICO signed up to the so-called AI Elections
reporters Accord, voluntary commitments from
and editors. companies including Microsoft, Byte-
Learn more Dance and Alphabet to do what they
about editorial can to protect global elections from
content the threat posed by AI.
presented Given the track record of many of
by outside these firms in protecting users from
advertisers at existing harms, including harassment
www.politico. and bullying on social media, it’s a
eu/frequently- massive leap of faith to rely on them
asked- to safeguard election integrity.
questions/ That’s despite the legitimate good-
May 23, 2023 Page 14
will I perceived from multiple inter-
views with corporate executives with-
in these firms to reduce politically
motivated harm as much as possible.
The problem, as of mid-2024, is
that governments, regulators and oth-
er branches of the state are just not
prepared for the potential threat — and
it does remain potential — tied to AI.
Much of the technical expertise re-
sides deep within companies. Legis-
lative efforts, including the Europe-
an Union’s recently passed Artificial
Intelligence Act, are, at best, works
in progress. The near total lack of
oversight of how social media plat-
forms’ AI-powered algorithms op-
erate makes it impossible to rely on
anyone other than tech giants them-
selves to police how these systems
determine what people see online.
With AI advancing faster than you
can say “large language model” and
governments struggling to keep up,
why am I still cautious about herald-
ing this as the year of AI-fueled disin-
formation, just as billions of people
head to the polls in 2024?
For now, I have a potentially naive
belief that people are smarter than
many of us think they are.
As easy as it is to think that one
well-placed AI deepfake on social
media may change the minds of un-
suspecting voters, that’s not how
people make their political choices.
Entrenched views on specific lawmak-
ers or parties make it difficult to shift
people’s opinions. The fact that AI-
fueled forgeries must be viewed in a
wider context — alongside other social
media posts, discussions with fam-
ily members and interactions with
legacy media — also hamstring the
ability for such lies to break through.
Where I believe we’re heading,
though, is a “post-post-truth” era,
where people will think everything,
and I mean everything, is made up,
especially online. Think “fake news,”
but turned up to 11, where not even
the most seemingly authentic content
can be presumed to be 100 percent
true. We’re already seeing examples
of politicians claiming that damag-
ing social media posts are deepfakes
when, in fact, they are legitimate.
With the hysteria around AI often
outpacing what the technology can
currently do — despite daily advances
— there’s now a widespread willing-
ness to believe all content can be cre-
ated via AI, even when it can’t.
In such a world, it’s only rational
to not have faith in anything.
The positive is that we’re not there
yet. If the nine articles in this “Bots
and Ballots” series show anything, it’s
that, yes, AI-fueled disinformation is
upon us. But no, it’s not an existen-
tial threat, and it must be viewed as
part of a wider world of “old-school”
campaigning and, in some cases, for-
eign interference and cyberattacks.
AI is an agnostic tool, to be wielded
for good or ill.
Will that change in the years to
come? Potentially. But for this year’s
election cycle, your best bet is to re-
main vigilant, without getting caught
up in the hype-train that artificial in-
telligence has become.
Mark Scott is POLITICO’s chief
technology correspondent. He writes
a weekly newsletter, Digital Bridge,
about the global intersection of tech-
nology and politics.
 Page 15 April 23, 2024
Brexit
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 5
tions looming on both sides — the EU’s
one comes first at the start of June —
but just having a proper chat is a step
forward. It’s about creating the right
feels so top officials can speak openly
with each other again.
Things will move slowly: After years
of tension, it’s too early to even men-
tion improving the City of London’s
access to EU markets, which has been
almost totally cut off, without jeopar-
dizing the fragile relationship.
But by comparing notes in the
talking shop, Brussels and London
might find they have shared problems
France
CONTINUED FROM PAGE 5
public debate and effectively
blocked Macron’s camp from mak-
ing a big push on their pro-EU cre-
dentials.
While recent shocking and violent
events are not obviously connected to
each other, the stream of news stories
has provided inflammatory material
for the far-right campaign.
A 15-year-old boy was stabbed to
death in the central French city of
Châteauroux in April after allegedly
refusing to give his phone to the at-
tacker. The alleged suspect was a boy
of “Afghan origin,” a source close to
the investigation told French news
agency AFP.
That led the far-right National
Rally’s president to call for a halt on
immigration from Afghanistan, in-
cluding for asylum-seekers, with a
sweeping claim that this population
brought “no added-value to French
society.” The attacker’s mother al-
legedly participated in the deadly
assault.
“These stories are a source of con-
cern for the French population,” Re-
naud Labaye, the general secretary
of the National Rally group in the Na-
tional Assembly, told POLITICO. “It is
our opinion that elected officials must
offer political solutions to the con-
cerns of the people who elect them.”
where they can work together, such
as on greening the financial system,
curtailing risks from artificial intelli-
gence, or even preventing the next
financial crash. And although Brexit
has been painted as an acrimonious
divorce, there are still issues where
it makes sense for the U.K. and EU to
share custody. One such topic refers
to how quickly shares are exchanged
for cash, with Brussels hopeful Lon-
don will wait around to speed up the
process, rather than aligning with the
faster-moving U.S.
If both sides can see eye-to-eye
on the technical topics, it may mean
that eventually, when it’s not quite
so painful, it could then be easier to
have those bigger conversations fur-
ther down the line — like whether the
U.K. will ever get prized access to EU
At stake is not just the makeup of
the European Parliament and the
direction of EU lawmaking tilting to
the right, but also potentially the fu-
ture of France: Polling puts Le Pen on
course to win the next presidential
election in 2027 and a resounding vic-
tory for the National Rally next month
would catapult her toward the Elysée.
IT’S ABOUT SECURITY
It’s not as if the president hasn’t tried.
Earlier this year, Macron appoint-
ed 35-year-old Gabriel Attal as prime
minister with hopes of giving his be-
leaguered second term a fresh start
and putting a tough — and popular
— adversary up against the RN’s own
millennial rising star, Jordan Bardella.
The French executive brandished
its support for Ukraine against the
Russian invasion, adopting an in-
creasingly hawkish rhetoric and dou-
bling down on accusations that the
far-right sympathizes with the Krem-
lin. “One has to wonder if Vladimir
Putin’s troops aren’t already in our
country — I’m talking about you and
your side,” Attal told the RN’s three-
time presidential candidate Le Pen
in February.
Later that month, Renaissance’s
lead candidate for the EU election,
Valérie Hayer, described her cam-
paign as being the “only pro-Euro-
pean campaign” and said she would
seek to protect Europe against Rus-
sia’s Putin and his “allies” within the
Union.
But in the eyes of French voters,
markets. And both sides hope Nurse
and Berrigan, who will lead the talks,
could really hit it off.
They’re definitely each other’s type
on paper. Both are career technocrats.
Both do things by the book. Both are
economic liberals. And both have a
nerdy love for financial rules.
Diplomats think they can geek out
together, amid an agenda which cov-
ers the technical, but important, is-
sues facing financial services in Eu-
rope. While Nurse and Berrigan have
met before, this time it’s different as
they’ll be locking eyes across the ne-
gotiating table for the first time.
Nurse is director general for finan-
cial services at the U.K. Treasury, and
Berrigan director general at the Euro-
pean Commission’s financial-services
department (DG FISMA).
European themes and Ukraine con-
tinue to appear as distant issues.
In one Odoxa poll of 1,000 people
conducted on May 15-16, just a tenth
of those surveyed listed the war in
Ukraine as one of three factors which
would influence their vote in the EU
election, while more than a third (35
percent) mentioned security.
“The French are significantly
more concerned with security with-
in their borders than they are with
global security,” said Erwan Lestro-
han, a research analyst for the poll-
ing firm Odoxa. “This is an election
cycle, dominated by domestic issues,
which lands halfway into Emmanuel
Macron’s presidency and can be seen
by voters as a midterm vote.”
Though Macron’s government is
pulling out all the stops to portray
itself as being tough on crime, the
Odoxa poll showed 70 percent of
those surveyed judged the state’s
action on security matters as being
“insufficient.” EU election polling esti-
mates the far-right National Rally (RN)
will receive over 30 percent of the
vote next month, with Macron’s Re-
naissance list stuck around 16 percent
and at risk of being surpassed by the
center-left, Socialist-party backed list
of European Parliament candidates.
“The far-right has the most to
gain when security matters are put
at the heart of the political debate,”
said Christian Mouhanna, a French
sociologist whose research focuses
on security.
In 2002, Mouhanna said, the RN’s
News
Nurse is not as naturally warm as
It’s too early her predecessor Katharine Bradd-
ick. And Berrigan is less of a show-
to even man than his former boss, Olivier
Guersent.
mention Neither of them suffer fools. That
improving might just suit them both — and could
lead to deeper conversations, delving
the City of into sexy topics such as global bank
capital standards, and whether the
London’s EU will follow the U.K. and U.S. into
access to EU delaying the important rules.
One test will be whether Berrigan
markets. and Nurse get on proper first-name
terms, because Berrigan goes by
Sean. (Only his mom actually calls
him John.)
And if things go really well, they
could share in a real love affair: fries
from the EU capital’s favorite chippy,
Maison Antoine.
EU polls campaign largely focused on crime
and insecurity, which had marred the
Exiting MEPs at outgoing socialist Prime Minister Lio-
nel Jospin’s campaign. Even positive
the European
Parliament (left) economic results during Jospin’s time
and EU-wide in office didn’t help much.
projection (right). Two days before that vote — dur-
ing a silence period when candidates
are asked to suspend their campaigns
and media cannot discuss electoral
ID: 91
matters — a 72-year-old retiree was
robbed and beaten at his home. The
shocking nature of the incident and
ECR: 84
the intense coverage which followed
made security a key theme with hours
to go before the vote.
It was seen as linked to far-right
candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen’s sec-
EPP: 179 ond-place finish in that contest.
Images of violence have been wide-
spread in France over the past year,
starting with the clashes across the
NI: 50 country last summer after a 17 year-
old was fatally shot by a police officer.
RE: 85 Last month, a 15 year-old was beaten
to death in a Parisian suburb, alleg-
edly by four young men aged 17 to
20. A few weeks later, a 22 year-old
was killed, allegedly by two teenagers
S&D: 150 who had ambushed him after luring
him in through a dating site.
While the notion that France is
Greens: 49 turning into a more violent soci-
ety is disputed by researchers, that
The Left: 32
won’t necessarily be enough to save
Macron’s campaign.
Source: POLITICO “Concern on security is highly tied
Research &
Analysis Division to current events,” said Lestrohan,
Arnau Busquets
from pollsters Odoxa. “It’s always
Guàrdia/POLITICO strong but spikes when an event
 News
POLITICS
MEPs through the
ages
The average age of an MEP at the
end of this mandate will be 54.
At 21, Danish Greens lawmaker
Kira Marie Peter-Hansen was
the youngest-ever lawmaker to
enter the European Parliament
in 2019. But on average, MEPs’
ages have actually remained
remarkably stable throughout
the EU Parliament’s nine terms.
According to the Parliament’s own
data, the average age consistently
hovered between 53 and 55
at the end of every Parliament
term. With an average age of,
respectively, 50 and 51 years, the
Greens and Left groups had the
youngest lawmakers. European
Conservatives and Reformists
PRO BRIEF
MEPs (averaging 56.5 years
D EF EN S E
Poland to spend €2.3B
to reinforce border
Poland plans to invest €2.3
billion to bolster security along
its eastern border with Russia
and Belarus, Prime Minister
Donald Tusk announced May
18. Emphasizing the country’s
strategic position on the eastern
flank of both NATO and the
EU, Tusk highlighted Poland’s
responsibility for European
security. “We have begun these
works, to make Poland’s border
a safe one in times of peace, and
impenetrable for an enemy in
times of war,” he said. Poland’s
border with Belarus has been a
flashpoint for several years due to
increasing numbers of migrants
seeking to cross it.
C EN T R A L B A N K ER
ECB’s Schnabel cools
rate cut expectations
The European Central Bank
(ECB) should pause after cutting
interest rates in June to wait for
further evidence that inflation will
return to target, executive board
member Isabel Schnabel said in an
interview. “Based on current data,
a rate cut in July does not seem
warranted,” she told Japanese
newspaper Nikkei in an interview
published May 17. “We should
follow a cautious approach.”
Markets are all but sure that the
bank will go ahead with its first
rate cut in almost five years when
it meets on June 6. But there is
less clarity over what will happen
after that.
at the end of their mandate)
and European People’s Party
lawmakers (at an average age of
55) were the oldest. There were
no major differences between
countries either; almost all
EU countries’ MEPs were — on
average — in their fifties when
their mandate finished. But
there are some outliers: The EU’s
youngest Parliament delegations
are from Malta and the Nordics.
Maltese, Swedish and Danish
MEPs were 47 going on 48 as
they wrapped up their mandate.
Polish, Latvian and Lithuanian
MEPs were the oldest of the pack,
with an average age above 60. In
Lithuania’s team of lawmakers,
the average stands at 65.
TRADE
Watchdog opens
aluminum foil review
Britain’s trade watchdog will
investigate whether Chinese
kitchen aluminum foil imports to
the U.K. are damaging its domestic
industry. “Our investigation will
assess whether the measure is still
needed to ensure U.K. producers
are able to compete fairly,” the
Trade Remedies Authority (TRA)
said in a statement May 20. The
TRA probe will examine whether
the watchdog should maintain 35.6
percent tariffs on aluminum foil
rolled over from the EU after Brexit.
In 2013, the EU found Chinese firms
dumped aluminum foil in the single
market — trading the goods at a
value below what it took to make
and sell them in China.
H E A LT H C A R E
S&D outlines health
priorities
Tobacco legislation, strategies on
mental and women’s health and a
proposal for a Critical Medicines
Act are listed as health priorities
for the next mandate by the S&D
group in a blueprint for health
and the environment obtained by
POLITICO. Most of the legislative
files are unfinished works that
are hoped to be picked up by the
European Parliament’s Committee
on Environment, Public Health and
Food Safety for the upcoming five-
year period. Among other aims,
the group has set its focus on the
revision of the Tobacco Products
Directive and the revision of the
Tobacco Advertising Directive.
MEPs' ages
MEPs’ ages
Age distribution of this Parliament's MEPs, by lawmakers' age when they left the Parliament.
Age distribution of this Parliament’s MEPs, by lawmakers’ ages when they left the Parliament.
40 MEPs
20 MEPs
0
26 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 86
Source: European Parliament
Source: European Parliament
INDUSTRIAL POLICY
Imec lands €2.5B
investment
Microchips research center Imec
said May 21 it had finalized a €2.5
billion plan for a new research hub,
revealing that industry partners
had pledged €1.1 billion to add to
EU and national governmental
funding. The new hub, to be based
in Imec’s home city of Leuven in
Belgium, is a key part of the EU’s
policy to strengthen its position in
the global microchips value chain.
The 2023 EU Chips Act targets
investments in both production
and R&D. A consortium around
Imec was the sole bidder for a
European Commission call for
€700 million in EU funds, to be
matched by national governments
with roughly the same amount.
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POLICY PRO?
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pro@politico.eu
T E C H N O LO GY
Council of Europe
adopts AI treaty
Foreign ministers from the 46
member countries of the Council
of Europe adopted on May 17
the first international treaty
regulating artificial intelligence
and its impact on human rights.
The treaty establishes rules
requiring users of AI technology to
make sure it does not undermine
democracy, human rights, the rule
of law and privacy. Drafted at the
Strasbourg-based organization,
which administers the European
Court of Human Rights, the text
will be legally binding for member
countries of the organization as
well as observer countries that
sign and ratify it.
Age
F I N A N C I A L S ER V I C E S
UK facing card duopoly
watchdog says
The U.K. has a card duopoly
which is forcing businesses to
accept higher fees, the payments
watchdog warned May 21. In
an interim report, the Payment
Systems Regulator (PSR) said
Mastercard and Visa, the two
biggest card schemes, “do not
face effective competition” and
prices have risen “substantially”
over the last five years. The
watchdog said it has provisionally
concluded that the market is not
working well and intervention
may be needed. It is considering
requiring Mastercard and Visa to
provide reasoning and evidence
behind their price increases, and
more transparency to businesses.
COMPETITION
Competition watchdog
drops Microsoft probe
Britain’s competition watchdog
has ended its probe into
Microsoft’s deal with Mistral AI,
confirming on May 17 it didn’t meet
the threshold for an investigation.
The Competition and Markets
Authority (CMA) opened an
“invitation to comment” on
Microsoft’s investment in Mistral
in April, and had said it would
open a merger inquiry — but then
closed it. “Based on the evidence,
the CMA does not believe that
Microsoft has acquired material
influence over Mistral AI as a
result of the partnership,” a
spokesperson for the regulator
confirmed.
May 23, 2024 Page 16
Hanne
Hanne Cokelaere/POLITICO
Cokelaere/POLITICO
T E C H N O LO GY
UK to launch chips
institute
The British government on May
20 said it would establish a U.K.
semiconductor institute to act
as a gateway for researchers,
businesses and international
investors. Once established,
the institute will “act as a
coordinated entry point” to
corral investment and help
businesses bring their innovations
to market, the government
said. The institute, one of the
central recommendations of a
government-commissioned study
into how to grow the country’s
chips industry, is also tasked with
ensuring researchers have the
“tools and infrastructure needed
to drive their work forward.”
TRADE
EU targets Chinese
products in probes
The European Commission said
May 16 it will investigate whether
tin-plated steel and parquet
floorboards from China are being
dumped on the EU single market.
The two lobby groups that pushed
the complaints voiced their
content. Eurofer, the association
of steelmakers in Europe, which
presented the EU with evidence
and a request to investigate,
welcomed the probe. The other
probe concerns parquet flooring
from China, though panels made
of solid wood are excluded. The
European Parquet Federation
called the scrutiny “a necessary
step.”
 Commentary
TRUMP
ALLY
HAS
TOUGH
LOVE
FOR
EUROPE
Tipped for a major
national security
role if Trump is reelected,
Elbridge Colby has
made clear the
transatlantic relationship
will only be healthy if
Europe pulls its weight.
BY JAMIE DETTMER
“I think the transatlantic relation-
ship is really important, and I think
Russia is a very serious threat,” said
Elbridge Colby, a former senior
Pentagon official who’s now being
tipped for a major national security
role — if former U.S. President Don-
ald Trump is reelected in November.
“I think it's not as much of a
threat as China, or as much of a
threat as the Soviet Union was in
1953. But if Putin isn’t checked, he
will have the incentive to push far-
ther,” Colby told POLITICO.
With recent opinion polls show-
ing Trump ahead of President Joe
Biden in key swing states, the U.S.
presidential race is increasingly
preoccupying European policy-
makers, with leaders wringing
their hands and talking of Trump-
proofing the continent.
In this regard, Colby underscor-
ing NATO’s significance will un-
doubtedly help soothe the nerves
of those trying to figure out what a
second Trump term would mean,
and whether the transatlantic
relationship will be as roiled and
turbulent as the last time around,
when Trump threatened to with-
draw from the alliance that’s been
the bedrock of European security
since 1949.
But they’ll need to read the fine
print. Because, as Colby’s made
clear before, he has tough love for
Europe.
The grandson of William Colby,
head of the CIA under the adminis-
trations of U.S. presidents Richard
Nixon and Gerald Ford, Colby’s
a long-standing China hawk who
served as a deputy assistant secre-
tary of defense in the first Trump ad-
ministration. Now among the most
bandied-about names for top for-
eign policy jobs in a second Trump
term, his stressing of the transat-
lantic relationship will go some way
in calming European allies— even
though he opposed Biden’s long-
stalled aid package for Ukraine.
Colby makes clear the trans-
atlantic relationship will only be
healthy if Europe pulls its weight,
takes on a greater defense bur-
den, stops just “staging photo ops
promising in the future that they're
going to spend more,” and gets
on with “fielding credible combat
forces that can assume the primary
burden of the conventional defense
of Europe against the Russians.”
He also advocates prodding the
continent to do so. “For countries
meeting their defense obligations
— and not in terms of account-
ing trickery but with real forces —
those countries should get treated
best by America,” he told POLITI-
CO. And, on the topic of imposing
tariffs on exports to the U.S. from
recalcitrant allies, he explained:
“We should look in an integrated
way at our alliances and partner-
ships. And we should be prepared
to use carrots and sticks to incen-
tivize the right kind of behavior
from our point of view.”
Colby stresses he doesn’t speak
for Trump or his presidential
campaign. But as far as he sees it,
China’s the number one threat the
U.S. has to focus on. And in order
to do that, there has to be a global
division of labor, with Europe step-
ping up and helping a lot more, so
Washington can prioritize China.
“We think we’re far more power-
ful and capable than we actually
are. And that's not a hair-shirt com-
ment. It’s a simple fact. When I say
we, I mean the established leader-
ship class — President Biden but also
many Republicans of the old school
— who think we can do anything.
But have you looked at the size of
the Chinese economy? Have you
looked at the size of the Chinese
industrial base? Have you looked at
the state of our own industrial base,
and particularly our defense-indus-
trial base? Have you looked at the
readiness of our armed forces? Have
you looked at the growth of their
armed forces?” he asked.
“In the past quarter of a century,
we've gone through an unprece-
dented financial crisis, deindustri-
alization, several wars in the Mid-
dle East which didn’t end well and
certainly [weren’t] worth the cost.
China went from being a blip on
the horizon to where there’s a real
chance we could lose a war against
it,” he remarked.
Colby’s heartened by signs of
greater European seriousness,
though he’s not yet convinced that
action will match rhetoric. He also
says NATO’s European members
should “absolutely” be spending
more like 3 to 4 percent of their
GDP on defense — as most of them
did during the Cold War. “That’s
entirely realistic,” he added.
“Germany alone is a larger econ-
omy than Russia’s, let alone NATO
as a whole,” he said, noting that
Europe has wanted to hang on to
the peace dividend afforded by the
end of the Cold War for too long.
“The one thing I really do object to
is when the Germans in particular,
with all their history, try to make
out they can't militarize for histori-
May 23, 2024 Page 17
cal reasons. But when their necks
Colby were on the line during the Cold
War, they militarized plenty fast,”
stresses he said. He also dismissed British
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s recent
he doesn’t pledge to increase defense spend-
speak for ing in the future, as he’s not likely
to be in power to have to fulfill it.
Trump Talking to POLITICO, Colby did
or his approve of parts of French Presi-
dent Emmanuel Macron’s recent
presidential marathon address at the Sorbonne
though, praising him for calling on
campaign. Europe to be more self-reliant, take
But as far on more responsibility, and im-
prove military preparedness. But
as he sees it, he’s scornful of the French leader’s
China’s the talk of strategic autonomy and
of Europe being an independent
number one player in the great power conflict
between the U.S. and China.
threat the “That’s self-defeating because
U.S. has to you can’t have a vigorous Europe
without at least the support of the
focus on. United States, and if Europe is go-
ing to be some kind of third pole,
then why would we help you be-
MICHAEL B.
THOMAS/GETTY come that?” he asked. “Anyway,
IMAGES
Macron’s been so inconsistent over
the years. Before, he was saying
we should reach out to Moscow,
and now he's talking about putting
French troops in Ukraine. Which is
it? I'm like, holy cow.”
Plus, Colby’s increasingly far
more intrigued by Europe’s hawkish
center-left politicians — among them
Britain’s David Lammy, the opposi-
tion Labour Party’s lead on foreign
affairs, and Germany’s Minister of
Defense Boris Pistorius. “The for-
eign policy I'm advocating could be
compatible with a lot of center-left
governments in allied countries; it's
about pragmatic alignment of inter-
ests, not ideology,” he said.
Along these lines, talking to PO-
LITICO’s Anne McElvoy earlier this
month, Colby lashed out at British
foreign minister David Cameron for
“moralizing” and “lecturing” U.S.
politicians about Ukraine, and he
went out of his way to praise Lam-
my, saying: “Based on what I can
see, David Lammy is far preferable
to David Cameron.”
Interestingly, there’s a familial
echo in all this. In the 1950s, Col-
by’s grandfather was an advocate
for engaging non-Communist left-
wing parties to shape non-Commu-
nist coalitions. And his advocacy
infuriated James Jesus Angleton,
the chief of the CIA’s counterintel-
ligence department at the time, set-
ting off a bureaucratic brawl.
Similarly, Colby is no stranger to
ideological dustups and Washing-
ton battles himself. Both the U.S.
Central Command and the Joint
Staff vehemently opposed the Na-
tional Security Strategy he helped
draw up for the Trump adminis-
tration, which reoriented defense
resources to Asia and away from
the Middle East. Neoconserva-
tives have also taken issue with his
thinking, blocking him from a role
in Jeb Bush’s 2016 presidential bid.
However, Colby’s relentless fo-
cus on China not only fits in with
Trump’s thinking, it has also swayed
many in the Republican Party. He
dismisses the idea that he’s a quasi-
isolationist, arguing he’s a realist
about what’s possible and what’s
in America’s best interest. He also
laughs at all the hand-wringing
about Trump’s supposedly transac-
tional approach to foreign policy.
“American foreign policy, I think,
should be in the interest of the
American people. For some, a cost-
benefit approach to foreign policy is
a controversial idea. I mean, foreign
policy isn’t, as President Biden’s say-
ing, sacred. It's supposed to deliver
results. Idealism detached from
Jamie Dettmer cost-benefit isn’t moral. We should
is opinion editor have results. If you look at foreign
at POLITICO policy that way, we're not doing so
Europe. well right now,” he said.
 Opinion

MACRON’S WRONG
TO THINK FRANCE’S
NUCLEAR UMBRELLA
CAN PROTECT EUROPE
play a vital role. The question is, could Macron always at sea, ready to launch its
BY DERRICK WYATT What exactly France’s role be hinting at something similar to nuclear-armed missiles if ordered.
Break it gently
could be, Macron didn’t spell out. U.K. policy? The U.K.’s warheads are of
to the French IN A KEY PASSAGE IN HIS In a subsequent interview, how- The U.K. is also a nuclear-weap- high-yield, each having an explo-
president, RECENT Sorbonne speech, ever, he returned to this theme, ons state, but unlike France, Brit- sive force six times as destructive
but it will take French President Emmanuel Ma- referring to the forthcoming sum- ain has already spelled out its pol- as Hiroshima. They’re designed to
more than the cron insisted that Russia must ab- mit of the European Political Com- icy on using its nuclear deterrent destroy an enemy’s cities in an act
French and solutely not win its war of aggres- munity to be held in the U.K., and in defense of its allies. of retaliation for a nuclear attack
U.K. nuclear sion against Ukraine. To meet the vowed to hold a full discussion of The U.K.’s nuclear warheads on the U.K. But since the overall
threat posed by Russian President how France’s nuclear deterrent are mounted on Trident mis- object is to deter an enemy from
deterrents to Vladimir Putin’s nuclear weapons, could contribute to European se- siles launched by Vanguard-class launching a nuclear attack in the
defend the he argued that Europe needed curity. He said he hoped to final- submarines, which are meant to first place, if it ever came to that,
Continent its own nuclear defenses. And on ize this discussion “in the coming be undetectable when patrolling. the exercise would have failed.
without the U.S. that front, he said, France could months.” And one of these submarines is The U.K. has “declared” or “as-

signed” its nuclear weapons to
the defense of NATO since 1962,
though the country’s prime min-
ister remains in sole control of
these weapons. According to the
British government: “We would
consider using our nuclear weap-
ons only in extreme circumstanc-
es of self-defence, including the
defence of our NATO allies (empha-
sis added).”
Yet, few seriously believe the
U.K. would really launch nuclear
missiles against Russian cities if
Moscow had first attacked a NATO
ally and not the U.K. directly.
For one, if Russia believed the
U.K. had launched a nuclear at-
tack on its cities, it would be high-
ly likely to retaliate by launch-
ing a similar attack on the U.K.
Also, the very act of a Vanguard
submarine launching a Trident
missile would risk revealing its
location — information that could
give Russia’s forces the opportu-
nity to destroy it. And since the
U.K. would likely have only one
nuclear-armed submarine at sea,
it could end up sacrificing its abili-
ty to respond to or deter a nuclear
attack on its own shores.
So, whatever the U.K.’s official
policy says, it’s close to inconceiv-
able that Britain would use its nu-
clear weapons in case of an attack
on a NATO ally rather than one
on the U.K. itself. The Trident nu-
clear missiles may be an effective
deterrent to nuclear strikes on the
U.K., but they offer precious little
protection to its allies.
France, meanwhile, has more
nuclear weapons than the U.K.,
with most of its warheads de-
ployed in its Le Triomphant-class
submarines, and others on carrier
or land-based aircraft. However,
France has never “declared” or
“assigned” its nuclear weapons
to NATO. French nuclear weap-
ons are there to defend France
alone, and until recently, French
governments never pretended
otherwise.
To really understand what
Macron was getting at in his Sor-
bonne speech, though, we must
recall his Elysée speech from
2020, where he mentioned the
use of French nuclear weapons.
In that statement, Macron implied
France might use them to defend
European allies. He said nucle-
ar deterrence was a last-resort
guardian of the country’s vital
interests, but he also added that
these interests now had a Euro-
pean dimension.
Cutting through the somewhat
Delphic style of these speeches,
Macron seems to have suggested a
carbon-copy of the U.K. policy. He
is right, of course, to “smell the
coffee” as regards the risks to Eu-
ropean defense that would result
from U.S. disengagement. One
risk would be that Russia could
dominate nonnuclear armed Eu-
ropean allies with the threat or
use of tactical nuclear weapons in
any conflict.
Current Russian doctrine holds
that lower-yield tactical (or battle-
field) nuclear weapons are “a
controllable means of achieving
battlefield results and an end to
hostilities.” According to recent-
ly leaked Russian documents,
even the loss of conventional mili-
tary assets, such as airfields, in a
conflict could trigger a tactical nu-
clear response by Russia. And just
a couple weeks ago, the Kremlin
announced tactical nuclear weap-
ons exercises to improve their
readiness for combat.
This was a clear response to
comments made by Macron and
U.K. Foreign Minister David Cam-
eron. Cameron had said it was up
to Ukraine whether it used U.K.-
donated weapons to hit targets in
Russia, and Macron had floated
the possibility of NATO troops
fighting in Ukraine.
But as it stands, France doesn’t
have its own tactical nuclear
weapons to provide a limited or
graduated response to the use of
such weapons by Russia — per-
haps the reason why Macron
ruled out any battlefield use of
these weapons, and any gradu-
ated response to nuclear aggres-
sion, in his 2020 speech.
Without the U.S., Europe would
simply have no in-kind response
to Russia’s use of tactical nuclear
weapons. And despite having a
larger nuclear arsenal than the
U.K., this would be the main fac-
tor that would militate against
France launching a nuclear strike
on Russia in defense of allies.
Russia simply wouldn’t believe
France would launch nuclear
strikes against its cities in re-
sponse to tactical nuclear strikes
by Russia on, say, military bases
in the Baltics.
The nuclear umbrellas of
France and Britain are real
enough — but the truth is, they’re
only wide enough to cover France
and the U.K.
Derrick Wyatt is an emeritus profes-
sor of law at the University of Oxford.
The UN Srebrenica
resolution is vital
for peace
Ending genocide denial is more
relevant than ever. However, the
opportunity is being squandered as
politicians fail to confront the past
in a responsible way.
BY JASMINKO HALILOVIC
THIS MONTH, THE WORLD WAS
MEANT to unite to recognize July
11 as the “International Day of
Reflection and Commemoration
of the 1995 Srebrenica Genocide.”
However, this U.N. General As-
sembly resolution — supported by
over 15 countries — faced opposi-
tion from Serbia, backed by Rus-
sia and other allies. And for now,
the vote has been postponed.
This idea of recognition isn’t
new — in 2015, the U.N. Security
Council failed to pass a similar
resolution. But the need for it
should be uncontroversial, es-
pecially since the International
Court of Justice confirmed that
the mass murder of 8,372 individ-
uals during the summer of 1995
was, indeed, genocide — a crime
under international law, which
forms the very foundation of the
U.N.’s existence.
Today, the push to officially
commemorate the Srebreni-
ca genocide is more relevant
than ever, with divisions run-
ning wider, louder and deeper
than before. From Europe to the
Middle East, this period of global
upheaval prompts essential ques-
tions about our way of life, our
shared future and how we treat
one another, offering a chance for
significant societal transforma-
tion.
And yet, this opportunity is be-
ing squandered, as politicians fail
to confront and process the past
in a responsible way, prioritizing
narrow self-interests over collec-
tive well-being.
Serbian President Aleksandar
Vučić, for example, has initiated
French nuclear a diplomatic offensive, meeting
weapons with representatives from over
are there to 100 nations to persuade them to
defend France reject the U.N. resolution, in what
alone, and appears to be a clear — and rare
until recently, — case of genocide denial as a dip-
lomatic strategy.
French
Meanwhile, young Serbian ac-
governments tivists from the Youth Initiative
never for Human Rights have launched
pretended a campaign advocating for their
otherwise. government to support the reso-
lution and recognize the geno-
cide, demonstrating the current
policy doesn’t reflect the views of
all Serbians.
But Vučić’s efforts aren’t iso-
lated. Milorad Dodik — the no-
torious Bosnian-Serb politician
currently serving as the president
of the Bosnian Serb Republic—
has threatened to initiate seces-
sion from Bosnia-Herzegovina
if the U.N. resolution is passed.
This is hypocritical, as he himself
had acknowledged the atrocities
against Bosniaks in Srebrenica
as genocide in 2008. Dodik has
since become a major threat to
peace in the Western Balkans,
embracing far-right nationalism,
facing sanctions from the U.S. and
regularly denying the genocide.
Collectively, these provocative
statements are now fueling fears
of renewed conflict. “Will there
be a new war?” is a question of-
ILLUSTRATION BY
DATO PARULAVA/
ten asked today in Sarajevo — a
POLITICO city that endured one of the lon-
May 23, 2024 Page 19
gest sieges in modern history.
And though the political land-
scape in Bosnia-Herzegovina has
long been dominated by na-
tionalist politicians, this is now
culminating in institutionalized
genocide denial. All the while the
survivors of these atrocities re-
ceive far less attention than they
should.
This is precisely why I founded
the War Childhood Museum — en-
abling survivors to tell their sto-
ries in their own words. I believe
that museums can play a critical
role in educating the public, es-
tablishing emotional connections
and promoting dialogue, toler-
ance and reconciliation. Since
its founding, the museum has
documented over 6,000 stories
and testimonies from Bosnia-Her-
zegovina, as well as 20 other con-
flicts, becoming an international
platform for all those whose
childhoods have been impacted
by war.
I’m particularly proud that in
partnership with the Srebrenica
Memorial Center, the museum
has now conducted the Srebren-
ica genocide’s first systematic
documentation from the perspec-
tive of children — accounts that
vividly illustrate the enduring hu-
man cost of attempts to extermi-
nate a population.
Among these stories, there’s
that of Ermina, born in 1993,
whose father was killed in the
genocide. “Without my father, we
could never take a family photo.
My mom was still pregnant when
they said their goodbyes, so my
sister never even got to meet him.
Originally, these were the photos
of just my mom, my sister and me
which were put together using
Photoshop. To complete our fam-
ily portrait, we added the only
photo of my father that we had.
In 2010, his remains were found,”
she recounts.
This poignant collection of
over 100 testimonies from child
survivors, much like Ermina’s,
underscores the importance of
supporting this U.N. resolution.
Genocide denial inflicts pro-
found wounds. Refusing to ac-
knowledge historical atrocities
blocks the path to reconciliation,
and I reject the arguments made
against the resolution that claim
it would be “counterproductive”
or “stoke conflict.” These words
come from those at the fore-
front of the rallies in Banja Luka,
denying genocide while inciting
hatred and sowing fear and mis-
trust.
Genocide denial will never
lead to peace. And every nation,
regardless of its size or proxim-
ity to Bosnia-Herzegovina, has a
responsibility to uphold interna-
tional court decisions that pro-
vide justice for survivors. This is
a universal duty, aligning with
the very principles that led to the
U.N.’s founding.
We revisit our past horrors to
learn from them and to try to
ensure they aren’t repeated. Ac-
knowledging the truth about the
Srebrenica genocide is essential —
not only as a matter of justice for
its victims but as a cornerstone
for lasting peace.
Just take a moment to read the
stories of those who lived through
the genocide as children. Their
voices remind us why ending
genocide denial isn’t just a moral
obligation, but vitally important
for a peaceful future. Their sto-
ries call us to action — for them,
and for ourselves.
Jasminko Halilovic is the founder
of the War Childhood Museum in
Sarajevo.
Cover story
Xxxxx

How Russia long bachelor with a reputation as

a thrill-seeker (one of his Russian

infiltrated Austria's
handlers later took him to Palmyra
in Syria to see the war there up close),
Marsalek, then in his mid-30s, was

spy service
ripe for the taking.
Her name was “Natasha.” An erotic
model who had once played a Russian

and is now agent in a vampire B-movie called

“Red Lips II-Blood Lust,” Natasha,
aka Natalia Zlobina, met Marsalek

gunning for its in 2013.

Wirecard’s CEO had dispatched

government
Marsalek to Moscow to drum up
business, and he traveled there fre-
quently. A Russian business contact
suggested Natasha could help him,
and the two hit it off. Investigators
suspect that Natasha, with whom
Marsalek enjoyed a jet-set life trav-
Intelligence officials suspect Wirecard eling around Europe from St. Tropez
COO Jan Marsalek of colluding with the to Santorini, played a central role in
far-right Freedom Party on Moscow’s behalf. his recruitment.
At first, Russian intelligence was
primarily interested in Marsalek for
BY MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG IN VIENNA his connection to Wirecard. Investi-
gators believe the Russians used the
firm to launder money, pay off mer-
cenaries and fund other illicit activi-
ties. Over time, however, they began
The coup began with the sound of a doorbell. ¶ Just after 8 a.m. to grasp the value of Marsalek’s Aus-
trian connections.
on Feb. 28, 2018, Austrian police Commander Wolfgang Preiszler As the capital of a neutral coun-
try at the crossroads between East
pressed the buzzer at the headquarters of the country’s domes- and West, and one that hosts im-
portant branches of the United Na-
tic intelligence service and held his ID up to the security camera. tions, OPEC and other international
organizations, Vienna had long been
¶ Within minutes, dozens of his colleagues armed with Glock pis- a hotbed for global espionage. That
explains why Russia has more accred-
tols and a battering ram fanned out through the building in bul- ited diplomats and Russian support
staff in the city — 258 — than almost
let-proof vests and balaclavas, seizing confidential data stored anywhere else in the world. About
one-third, intelligence experts say,
on the agency’s servers and sensitive documents lying on desks. are likely spies.
Moreover, Russia likely wanted to
spy not just in Austria, but on Austria,
for a simple reason: Despite its lack
of political clout on the world stage,
the country belongs to the EU and
has long been within the Western fold
The incursion — pitting the police Most worrying, however, is that (while not a member of NATO, Austria
against the spy service, known as the man ultimately responsible for collaborates with the alliance), giving
the BVT — unleashed a firestorm the BVT raid, then-Interior Minister it access to the kind of information
that shattered Austria’s reputation Herbert Kickl, now heads the FPÖ Moscow covets.
in the intelligence world and led to — which makes him a leading candi- “Austria is interesting for the
the agency’s closure. date to become Austria's next chan- Russians because they can use it
More than six years later, the true cellor after elections later this year. as a platform for spying operations
scope of what transpired that day is Though seasoned political observers against other European countries,”
only now coming into focus. Intel- insist Austria won’t become a Rus- said Thomas Riegler, a Vienna-based
ligence officials tell POLITICO that sian vassal under the FPÖ, a Kickl historian who has written extensively
new evidence suggests the raid was chancellorship would still play into on Austrian intelligence.
part of a Moscow-led operation to dis- Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Marsalek quickly proved himself
credit Austria’s spy services in order hands, allowing the Kremlin to ex- willing and able to deliver just what
to rebuild them with new leadership ert more influence over the country the Russians wanted.
under the Kremlin’s influence. Cru- behind the scenes, and echoing its
THE INFILTRATION OF
cial to that effort, they say, was the success in co-opting the likes of Hun- AUSTRIA’S SPY SERVICE
junior partner in the government co- gary and Serbia.
alition at the time: the far-right, pro- “Putin would naturally be pleased The Vienna-born executive was of-
Russia Freedom Party (FPÖ), which by the ambiguity about Austria’s posi- ficially based at Wirecard's offices
today is the most popular party in tion on Ukraine and the EU that Kickl in Munich, but from his shadow
the country. would bring,” said Christian Rainer, a headquarters — a 19th-century, neo-
Last month, Austrian prosecutors veteran Austrian publisher and com- baroque villa that once belonged to
revealed that the men believed to mentator. “The danger for Austria is a Bavarian prince — he maintained
have laid the groundwork for the ac- that it would be completely isolated.” close ties to his homeland and its po-
tion were Russian agents directed by litical elite.
THE HONEYTRAP: HOW RUSSIA
Jan Marsalek, the fugitive former chief RECRUITED JAN MARSALEK The villa, situated across the street
operating officer of the collapsed pay- from the Russian consulate, helped
ment processing firm Wirecard, who In Marsalek, a well-spoken polyglot burnish Marsalek’s reputation as a
authorities say works for Russia’s GRU who had a taste for adventure and serious player. After meetings there
military intelligence agency. didn’t mind getting his hands dirty, he liked to treat his guests to a meal
The suggestion of a Moscow-led the Russians found a perfect vehicle at nearby Käfer, an exclusive Munich
conspiracy is explosive for a num- to infiltrate Austria’s security estab- eatery. At one such gathering Mar-
ber of reasons. For one, it appears to lishment. salek brought together ex-French
have nearly succeeded. Were it not The Vienna-born executive had an President Nicholas Sarkozy, Angela
for the so-called Ibiza scandal in 2019 unorthodox CV for the No. 2 posi- Merkel’s former top security adviser,
(in which the FPÖ’s then-leader was tion in a blue-chip company. After Erich Vad, and Wolfgang Schüssel,
caught on video trying to sell political leaving home and ditching school the former chancellor of Austria.
influence to a woman he believed to at 19, he joined Wirecard as its chief By 2015 Marsalek’s connections
be the niece of a Russian oligarch), technology officer in 2000, when the had led to Martin Weiss, then-head
there may have been nothing to stop firm’s core business was processing of operations for BVT, the domestic
the plan from coming to fruition. In- payments for online gambling and intelligence agency. Exactly when
stead, the Ibiza affair triggered the pornography. and where they met isn’t clear (Weiss
government’s collapse, pushing the Like many an espionage career, ILLUSTRATION claims he first encountered Marsalek
FPÖ into opposition where it has re- Marsalek’s began with what is known BY ROBERT in 2015 at a conference organized
CARTER FOR
mained since. in the trade as a “honeytrap.” A life- POLITICO by the interior ministry), but the
 May 23, 2024 Page 21

relationship would prove fateful for

both.
As the head of the agency’s “Sec-
tion 2,” its operations arm and largest
and most important division, Weiss
was arguably the best-informed in-
telligence official in Austria. He and
another senior official at the agency,
Egisto Ott, would eventually be ac-
cused by investigators of funneling
information to Marsalek and onward
to Moscow.
Ott was arrested on Good Friday
this year on suspicion of spying for
Russia at Marsalek’s behest. Weiss,
Ott’s ex-boss, remains at large in
Dubai, where he fled in 2021 with
Marselek’s help. Ott, who is being
held in preventive custody, denies
any wrongdoing. Weiss could not
be reached for comment.
Like most officials at the BVT,
Weiss and Ott had a background in
law enforcement. Housed within the
interior ministry, the BVT’s prima-
ry mission was to protect Austria’s
constitutional authorities and iden-
tify terror threats (hence its unwieldy
name: the Federal Office for the Pro-
tection of the Constitution and Com-
batting Terrorism).
Both men began their careers as
uniformed policemen in the 1980s
and worked their way up the ranks,
each joining a special anti-terror unit
in the 1990s, where they met. Both
came from humble beginnings.
Named for the Greek mythological
figure Aegisthus (a notorious schem-
er), Ott was born to an Italian moth-
er and an Austrian father. Though
well-liked among his foreign coun-
terparts, who readily shared confi-
dential information with him, he was
less popular within the BVT. Former
colleagues describe him as abrasive
and a “know-it-all.”
Weiss, meanwhile, was regarded as
a shrewd analyst but a distant figure
driven by his ambition to reach the
top of the agency. Why he decided
to collaborate with Marsalek, as au-
thorities allege, remains a mystery.
What is known is that in 2015, Ott,
who reported directly to Weiss, began
making unauthorized queries in police
computers, often inventing fake case
numbers to hide his tracks, according
to Austrian investigators. The searches
typically involved the location of ex-
iled Russians, especially those who had
fallen out of favor with the Kremlin.
Weiss would receive requests from
Marsalek and pass them on to Ott,
who would report back to Weiss, ac-
cording to investigative files seen by
POLITICO. In one case described by
investigators, Ott used his network
to track down a Russian intelligence
officer who defected by circulating
his fingerprints and claiming the man
was a terror suspect. Though Ott ulti-
mately discovered the former Russian
agent’s fake identity, the man man-
aged to avoid assassination.
According to texts he exchanged
with Weiss, Ott needed money. Over
the years he received hundreds of
thousands of euros for providing in-
formation, authorities believe. Ott
denies this.
MARSALEK’S AUSTRO-RUSSIAN
NETWORK AND A SECRET DOSSIER

In late 2015 Weiss went on sick leave

after injuring his back. Though he
was out of commission for more than
a year, during which he had to relin-
quish control of Section 2, the flow
of information continued, with Ott
making hundreds of unauthorized
queries for Marsalek via Weiss, ac-
cording to the authorities.
In 2017, after Weiss returned to

CONTINUED ON THE NEXT PAGE >

Cover story
BVT in a different senior role, the
two men undertook a more compli-
cated mission for Marsalek, authori-
ties allege.
It was a delicate moment in Aus-
trian politics. The country was in
the middle of an election season
that promised to remake its politi-
cal landscape.
After years of a grand coalition led
by the Social Democrats, the center-
right People’s Party, under a charis-
matic young leader named Sebastian
Kurz, was favored to win the October
ballot. Kurz’s likely coalition partner,
the far-right FPÖ, was keen to take
control of the interior ministry and,
with it, the BVT.
For Marsalek, the power shift rep-
resented a chance to deepen Russia’s
influence at the agency. And he knew
just which buttons to push.
Founded in the 1950s by SS veter-
ans, the FPÖ has always deeply re-
sented the political establishment. If
Marsalek wanted the FPÖ to go after
the BVT, then, all he had to do was
convince the party's leadership that
the intelligence deep state was out
to get them.
Ott and Weiss, both with their own
gripes against the BVT and its lead-
ers, were perfect for the job. In April
2017 an anonymous dossier, which
investigators believe was compiled
by one or both of the men, began
landing in the mailboxes of journal-
ists and prosecutors in installments.
The anonymous authors accused the
agency’s leadership of corruption on
a grand scale, including the mishan-
dling of privileged data and the mis-
use of public funds for sex parties and
other unorthodox pursuits.
Laced with authentic insider de-
tails about BVT operations and nam-
ing dozens of agency personnel,
the dossier seemed credible at first
glance, but the accusations didn’t
stand up to scrutiny.
Michael Nikbakhsh, one of Aus-
tria’s top investigative journalists and
a recipient of the dossier, spent weeks
probing it only to reach a sobering
conclusion. “It was bullshit,” he said.
CHRISTIAN BRUNA/GETTY IMAGES
“It all sounded plausible, but it was
a mix of fact and fiction.”
For Marsalek, “plausible” was
good enough. He had just the vehi-
cle to promote the dossier’s conclu-
sions: the Austro-Russian Friendship
Society, of which he was a prominent
member.
Founded in the late 1990s to
promote closer ties between the
two countries, the Friendship Soci-
ety’s membership included the CEOs
of some of Austria’s biggest
companies, including oil and gas
conglomerate OMV, as well as promi-
nent lawyers, lobbyists, at least one
Habsburg, and senior politicians from
the country’s major parties, includ-
ing the FPÖ.
The main target of Marsalek’s cam-
paign was the leader of the FPÖ’s par-
liamentary group, Johann Gudenus,
an impressionable Russophile close
to Heinz-Christian Strache, then the
party’s leader.
As coalition talks between the
People’s Party and the FPÖ were un-
derway, Marsalek peppered Gudenus
with negative information about the
BVT’s leadership, warning his friend
that powerful forces within the secu-
rity service and aligned with Kurz’s
party were trying to undermine the
far-right group. To keep his commu-
nications secret, Marsalek sent Gude-
nus messages via one of the found-
ers of the Friendship Society, Florian
Stermann.
The FPÖ, Gudenus and Stermann
did not respond to requests for com-
ment.
AUSTRIA’S FAR RIGHT VS.
THE DEEP STATE
Marsalek had good reason to under-
mine the BVT. Ott, his trusty source
within the agency, had just been sus-
pended, following a tip from the CIA
that he had forwarded work emails
to his private account. The authori-
ties had yet to find a smoking gun,
but they were closing in.
With the clock ticking, Marsalek
made a risky move. In November 2017
he forwarded Gudenus a confidential
BVT case number, encouraging him
to get his hands on the file and falsely
claiming it held sensitive information
the agency had collected on the FPÖ.
By the time the FPÖ took control
of the interior ministry at the end of
2017, the party’s leadership was con-
vinced the BVT was actively trying to
undermine it.
In January 2018, Peter Goldgruber,
the newly installed No. 2 official at
the interior ministry who reported
directly to Kickl, told a prosecutor
who handled corruption cases that
he had been ordered to “clean up”
the ministry, according to notes the
prosecutor took on the meeting. His
first target: the BVT.
Goldgruber encouraged the pros-
ecutor to pursue a case against the
agency’s leaders on the basis of the
information contained in Marsalek’s
dossier. Though the accusations were
vague, a key witness had come for-
ward: Martin Weiss. Ultimately, the
prosecutor signed off on a raid.
The next task was to find police of-
ficers to carry out the operation. All of
the country's elite units had ties to the
BVT leadership, meaning there was
a great risk the agency would catch
wind of the raid before it happened.
Goldgruber settled on Commander
Preiszler, a local FPÖ politician who
ran a special street-crime unit.
“Good morning, comrade, we’re
here for a meeting,” Preiszler told the
BVT security guard after he rang the
bell. Once inside the first gate, Pre-
iszler’s tone turned less friendly, ac-
cording to eyewitness accounts, and
he ordered the guards to hand over
a master key and electronic pass for
the premises.
Preiszler knew his destination:
“Where is the entrance to Section 2?”
he barked at the guards. Once there,
he and his officers made a beeline for
the unit that investigates right-wing
extremism, including organizations
with strong ties to the FPÖ, such as
the so-called identitarian movement.
The officers didn’t know what to
look for, so they grabbed everything
they could find, from printed docu-
ments to servers and thumb drives.
A printout on the desk of the unit’s
director was likely of particular inter-
est to Preiszler — an invitation to an
event sent by convicted Austrian neo-
Nazi Gottfried Küssel, with Preiszler
among the invitees. (A former head
of the BVT unit described the docu-
ment, which has gone missing, dur-
ing a recent parliamentary hearing.)
No shots were fired, but by the
time Preiszler’s team finished its
work that evening, the real target of
the operation — the BVT — had been
neutralized.
The trouble was that Preiszler’s
unit, which spent most of its time
chasing drug dealers, was ill-prepared
for a search that involved highly clas-
sified information.
Among the 40,000 gigabytes of
data seized by police during the BVT
raid was a copy of the “Neptune Data-
bank,” a hard drive containing years
of top-secret information shared with
the Austrians by other Western intel-
ligence agencies, including the CIA,
MI5 and Mossad. (Whether the Rus-
sians managed to make a copy of the
drive in the chaos that followed the
raid isn’t clear.)
If the cloud of suspicion unleashed
by the action wasn’t bad enough, the
seizure of a top-secret hard drive with
information from partner services
was crippling. In the fraternity of
global intelligence, such an indiscre-
tion, regardless of the circumstances,
was unforgivable. The Austrians were
soon cut off by their partners.
MARSALEK’S PLAN TO REMAKE
AUSTRIA’S SPY SERVICES
Marsalek had every reason to be
pleased with himself.
The agency was discredited. Its di-
rector, Peter Gridling, had been sus-
pended amid the investigation, and
Weiss had left the BVT and gone to
work for Marsalek directly in Munich
out of his villa. Finally, in an unrelated
decision, an Austrian court had lifted
Ott’s suspension.
Though Ott had been reassigned
to another corner of the interior min-
istry, he still had access to the infor-
mation Marsalek wanted, and the
relationship between the two men
continued to pay high dividends.
In the wake of the Salisbury poi-
soning of Russian defector Sergei
Skripal, a former military intelligence
officer, and his daughter by a nerve
agent known as Novichok, the Hague-
based Organisation for the Prohibi-
tion of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)
commissioned an analysis.
The Russians were eager to know
what the OPCW knew about Novi-
chok. Moscow dispatched several
agents to The Hague in early October
2018, according to Dutch authorities.
They tried to hack into the OPCW’s
computer system but failed.
Ott had more luck. Shortly after
the failed Russian effort, he secured
a copy of the report, which included
the OPCW’s breakdown of the for-
mula for Novichok. Authorities be-
lieve Ott handed the report, a copy
of which was found on his phone,
to Marsalek.
Amid the chaos at the BVT, Mos-
cow moved to fully infiltrate Austria’s
security services, the intelligence
sources say. Whether the sources
based their conclusion on hard evi-
dence or inference isn’t clear. What
is clear is that Marsalek was work-
ing behind the scenes to reconfigure
Austria’s intelligence services under
a single “national secret services co-
ordinator.”
In messages to the FPÖ’s Gudenus,
Marsalek offered his views on how a
new intelligence service should be
structured. He even proposed a can-
didate to lead the new service: the
Vienna attorney who had accompa-
nied Weiss when he offered himself
up as a witness to the abuses alleged
in the dossier.
In addition to “trying to under-
mine the senior leadership of the
BVT, there was an attempt to influ-
ence a reform of the BVT in terms
of its personnel and organizational
structure,” investigators concluded
in a summary shared with POLITICO.
At the same time, Ott was work-
ing on a blueprint for a new secret
service within the foreign ministry,
where he would play a central role.
“You will definitely be a part of this,”
a senior FPÖ MP close to Kickl told
Ott in a text exchange recovered by
investigators. “We’re going to find a
good solution for everyone who has
helped here.”
Austria’s foreign minister at the
time was Karin Kneissl, a politician
known for her friendly stance toward
Russia. That summer, in August 2018,
her wedding made global headlines
after Putin showed up and waltzed
with the bride.
The most memorable moment
came at the end of the dance, when
Kneissl stepped back and bowed be-
fore the Russian president.
VIENNA TRIES, AND FAILS,
TO SHUT MARSELEK DOWN
Before Marsalek could complete his
grand plan to rebuild Austria’s intelli-
gence service around his agents, how-

ever, Ibiza got in the way.
A private detective released a vid-
eo showing Strache, then FPÖ leader,
offering lucrative government con-
tracts in exchange for campaign help
from a woman he believed was the
niece of a Russian oligarch.
The hours-long, alcohol-fueled
encounter at a finca on the Spanish
island had been filmed two years ear-
lier in 2017. But the ensuing scandal
enveloped the FPÖ like a wildfire,
triggering the government’s collapse
and forcing the party from power.
With his political allies out of office,
Marsalek’s operation collapsed.
By then the Wirecard COO also
had bigger worries. The Financial
Times had published a series of ar-
ticles pointing to grave irregularities
in the firm’s accounting; the authori-
ties were circling, and investors were
fleeing. On June 18, 2020 Wirecard
acknowledged that nearly €2 billion,
one-quarter of its assets, were miss-
ing from its accounts.
Later that day, Marsalek met Weiss
at an Italian restaurant for dinner,
then quietly left Munich headed
for Austria. In Vienna the following
evening he took a taxi to an airfield
outside the city, where Weiss had ar-
ranged for a Cessna to fly Marsalek to
Belarus. He has yet to return; inves-
tigators believe he went from Minsk
to Russia, where he remains.
In most spy tales, that would be the
end of the story. Marsalek, however,
was far from done. He continued to
run both his Austrian cell and a sepa-
rate London-based ring of Bulgarians,
authorities say.
In December 2020 Weiss sent Ott a
text message asking him to dig up the
address of Christo Grozev, the Bulgar-
ian-born investigative reporter who
had helped expose the Novichok poi-
soning. Ott delivered the info, as well
as photos from Grozev’s residence;
Marsalek’s Bulgarian team subse-
quently broke into Grozev’s apart-
ment, stealing thumb drives and a
computer.
U.S. intelligence didn’t know about
the break-in but had other indications
that Grozev was in danger and recom-
mended that he leave Austria, where
he had lived with his family for 20
years. He now resides in the U.S.
Authorities in Austria didn't move
to shut down Marsalek’s network un-
til 2021, and even then didn’t under-
stand its full scope. After investigators
pieced together his escape and dis-
covered that Weiss, with the help of a
former FPÖ politician, had arranged
the private flight to Minsk, police ar-
rested the former BVT official on Jan.
22 of that year.
Weiss defended his role in help-
ing Marsalek, arguing there wasn’t
an arrest warrant out for his boss at
the time. He admitted to engaging
Ott to dig up information on dozens
of names but downplayed the sig-
nificance.
After keeping him in custody for
two days, the authorities, who didn’t
have enough to charge him, let Weiss
go under the condition that he coop-
erate with the investigation. Instead,
with Marsalek’s help, he jumped on
the next flight to Dubai.
“I just managed to evacuate my
Austrian guy to Dubai,” Marsalek
wrote to one of his Bulgarian agents
that day. “That was quite an adven-
ture as well. We were worried they’d
arrest him again at the airport.”
Some in the BVT speculate that
Weiss turned against the agency out
of anger because he wasn’t promot-
ed to deputy director. But Gridling,
the agency’s former chief, says Weiss
didn’t even apply for that position.
May 23, 2024 Page 23
Running Section 2 was the job Weiss
spent years trying to land, he said.
“I find it difficult to explain his
actions,” Gridling added. “If he had
been patient, he could have been di-
rector one day.”
Shortly after Weiss was arrested
in early 2021, the police also took
Ott into custody. After officers broke
through the door Ott tried unsuccess-
fully to destroy his phone, according
to police. After six weeks in deten-
tion he, too, was released pending
an investigation.
Though authorities suspected the
Russians had had a hand in Weiss and
Ott’s dealings, it wasn’t until late last
year that they discovered the depth
of Moscow’s involvement. In Septem-
ber, British counterintelligence broke
up an alleged U.K.-based spy ring of
six Bulgarians that authorities say
worked for Marsalek.
As part of the U.K. probe, inves-
tigators stumbled on chat commu-
nications between the ring’s alleged
leader, Orlin Roussev, and Marsalek
that pointed to intensive engagement
by Moscow.
Most surprising was that Ott ap-
peared to have continued to work for
Marsalek unabated even after his 2021
arrest. In June 2022, for example, he
allegedly handed over three mobile
phones that had belonged to senior
Austrian officials to Marsalek’s Bul-
garian crew. Ott acquired the phones
from a former colleague in the BVT,
according to Austrian law enforce-
ment.
According to the chat communi-
cations recovered by British authori-
PP MUNICH
ties, Marsalek was in constant contact
with his agents during their Austria
visit, even asking one to purchase two
Sachertorte, the Viennese chocolate
cake, on their way home.
A few months later, Ott delivered
a so-called SINA laptop, a highly en- Like many an espionage
crypted computer used by German
intelligence, to Marsalek’s helpers in
career, Marsalek’s began with
what is known in the trade
return for €20,000, authorities say.
Police discovered two more of the
laptops during a search of Ott’s home. as a “honeytrap.” A lifelong
WHAT AN FPÖ GOVERNMENT bachelor with a reputation as a
WOULD MEAN FOR EUROPE
thrill seeker (one of his Russian
Ott, whose latest arrest came as handlers later took him to
Palmyra in Syria to see the war
a result of the information U.K.
authorities provided to the Austrians,
is unlikely to be released from prison
soon, Austrian officials say. there up close), Marsalek, then
That might be wishful thinking. in his mid-30s, was ripe for the
Kickl, who was interior minister
at the time of the BVT raid, now taking.
leads the FPÖ; with a national elec-
tion due before the end of the year,
the party has a comfortable lead in
the polls.
If the FPÖ wins and forms a gov-
ernment, both Ott and Weiss, who
remains in Dubai (which doesn’t have
an extradition treaty with Austria), fort to take over Austria’s spy service, the Carpathians to the Eastern Alps,
may yet get a reprieve. as Western intelligence officials claim, posing a fundamental challenge to
The bigger question for Europe is it’s clear that the Russians regard the European security.
what an FPÖ-led government would country as an important prize and If the rest of Europe is surprised
mean for Vienna and its broader rela- are willing to go to great lengths to by the Austrian turn, it shouldn’t
tionship with Moscow. Austria's crit- influence its politics. be: Putin has never made his inter-
ics argue that the country is already In the Kremlin’s effort, Kickl and est in the country a secret. In 2018,
dangerously dependent on Russia. the FPÖ proved at worst eager ac- just months after the BVT raid, he
The center-right government might complices and at best useful idiots. accepted an invitation from the
take a tough line on Moscow in pub- Though Kickl hasn’t been as overtly Austro-Russian Friendship Society to
lic, they say, but has dragged its feet pro-Russian as some of his colleagues, celebrate 50 years of Russian gas
when it comes to disentangling Aus- he has been a vocal opponent of Eu- deliveries to the country. Several
tria’s economy from Russia. ropean sanctions against Moscow and weeks later, he returned for Kneissl’s
The country has been slow to critical of Western military support wedding. (Describing herself as a “po-
wean itself off Russian energy despite for Ukraine. litical refugee,” the former foreign min-
persistent pressure from Brussels With Kickl as chancellor, it’s a safe ister has since left Austria and now
and Washington, for example. In bet that Vienna would pursue even runs a think tank in St. Petersburg.)
the financial sector, Austrian-owned closer economic ties with Moscow. “We’ve had very good and
Raiffeisen Bank International And with both Slovakia and Hun- close relations with Austria for a long
continues to operate one of the gary already leaning toward Russia, time,” Putin told Austrian television
largest retail banks in Russia, despite a Austria's entry into the Kremlin’s just months after the raid on the
long standing pledge to withdraw. sphere of influence would create a BVT. “Austria has traditionally been a
If Moscow really was behind the ef- Putin-friendly bloc stretching from reliable partner for us in Europe.”
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