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How AI can bring on a second

Industrial Revolution.
I'm going to talk a little bit about where
technology's going. And often technology comes
to us, we're surprised by what it brings. But
there's actually a large aspect of technology that's
much more predictable, and that's because
technological systems of all sorts have leanings,
they have urgencies, they have tendencies. And
those tendencies are derived from the very nature
of the physics, chemistry of wires and switches
and electrons, and they will make reoccurring
patterns again and again. And so those patterns
produce these tendencies, these leanings. You
can almost think of it as sort of like gravity.
Imagine raindrops falling into a valley. The
actual path of a raindrop as it goes down the
valley is unpredictable. We cannot see where it's
going, but the general direction is very
inevitable: it's downward. And so these baked-in
tendencies and urgencies in technological
systems give us a sense of where things are going
at the large form. So in a large sense, I would say
that telephones were inevitable, but the iPhone
was not. The Internet was inevitable, but Twitter
was not. So we have many ongoing tendencies
right now, and I think one of the chief among
them is this tendency to make things smarter and
smarter. I call it cognifying - cognification - also
known as artificial intelligence, or AI. And I
think that's going to be one of the most influential
developments and trends and directions and
drives in our society in the next 20 years. So, of
course, it's already here. We already have AI, and
often it works in the background, in the back
offices of hospitals, where it's used to diagnose
X-rays better than a human doctor. It's in legal
offices, where it's used to go through legal
evidence better than a human para-lawyer. It's
used to fly the plane that you came here with.
Human pilots only flew it seven to eight minutes,
the rest of the time the AI was driving. And of
course, in Netflix and Amazon, it's in the
background, making those recommendations.
That's what we have today. And we have an
example, of course, in a more front-facing aspect
of it, with the win of the AlphaGo, who beat the
world's greatest Go champion. But it's more than
that. If you play a video game, you're playing
against an AI. But recently, Google taught their
AI to actually learn how to play video games.
Again, teaching video games was already done,
but learning how to play a video game is another
step. That's artificial smartness. What we're
doing is taking this artificial smartness and we're
making it smarter and smarter. There are three
aspects to this general trend that I think are
underappreciated; I think we would understand
AI a lot better if we understood these three
things. I think these things also would help us
embrace AI, because it's only by embracing it
that we actually can steer it. We can actually
steer the specifics by embracing the larger trend.
So let me talk about those three different aspects.
The first one is: our own intelligence has a very
poor understanding of what intelligence is. We
tend to think of intelligence as a single
dimension, that it's kind of like a note that gets
louder and louder. It starts like with IQ
measurement. It starts with maybe a simple low
IQ in a rat or mouse, and maybe there's more in
a chimpanzee, and then maybe there's more in a
stupid person, and then maybe an average person
like myself, and then maybe a genius. And this
single IQ intelligence is getting greater and
greater. That's completely wrong. That's not
what intelligence is - not what human
intelligence is, anyway. It's much more like a
symphony of different notes, and each of these
notes is played on a different instrument of
cognition. There are many types of intelligences
in our own minds. We have deductive reasoning,
we have emotional intelligence, we have spatial
intelligence; we have maybe 100 different types
that are all grouped together, and they vary in
different strengths with different people. And of
course, if we go to animals, they also have
another basket - another symphony of different
kinds of intelligences, and sometimes those same
instruments are the same that we have. They can
think in the same way, but they may have a
different arrangement, and maybe they're higher
in some cases than humans, like long-term
memory in a squirrel is actually phenomenal, so
it can remember where it buried its nuts. But in
other cases, they may be lower. When we go to
make machines, we're going to engineer them in
the same way, where we'll make some of those
types of smartness much greater than ours, and
many of them won't be anywhere near ours,
because they're not needed. So we're going to
take these things, these artificial clusters, and
we'll be adding more varieties of artificial
cognition to our AIs. We're going to make them
very, very specific. So your calculator is smarter
than you are in arithmetic already; your GPS is
smarter than you are in spatial navigation;
Google, Bing, are smarter than you are in long-
term memory. And we're going to take, again,
these kinds of different types of thinking and
we'll put them into, like, a car. The reason why
we want to put them in a car so the car drives, is
because it's not driving like a human. It's not
thinking like us. That's the whole feature of it.
It's not being distracted, it's not worrying about
whether it left the stove on, or whether it should
have majored in finance. It's just driving.
(Laughter) Just driving, OK? And we actually
might even come to advertise these as
"consciousness-free." They're without
consciousness, they're not concerned about those
things, they're not distracted. So in general, what
we're trying to do is make as many different
types of thinking as we can. We're going to
populate the space of all the different possible
types, or species, of thinking. And there actually
may be some problems that are so difficult in
business and science that our own type of human
thinking may not be able to solve them alone. We
may need a two-step program, which is to invent
new kinds of thinking that we can work
alongside of to solve these really large problems,
say, like dark energy or quantum gravity. What
we're doing is making alien intelligences. You
might even think of this as, sort of, artificial
aliens in some senses. And they're going to help
us think different, because thinking different is
the engine of creation and wealth and new
economy. The second aspect of this is that we are
going to use AI to basically make a second
Industrial Revolution. The first Industrial
Revolution was based on the fact that we
invented something I would call artificial power.
Previous to that, during the Agricultural
Revolution, everything that was made had to be
made with human muscle or animal power. That
was the only way to get anything done. The great
innovation during the Industrial Revolution was,
we harnessed steam power, fossil fuels, to make
this artificial power that we could use to do
anything we wanted to do. So today when you
drive down the highway, you are, with a flick of
the switch, commanding 250 horses - 250
horsepower - which we can use to build
skyscrapers, to build cities, to build roads, to
make factories that would churn out lines of
chairs or refrigerators way beyond our own
power. And that artificial power can also be
distributed on wires on a grid to every home,
factory, farmstead, and anybody could buy that
artificial power, just by plugging something in.
So this was a source of innovation as well,
because a farmer could take a manual hand
pump, and they could add this artificial power,
this electricity, and he'd have an electric pump.
And you multiply that by thousands or tens of
thousands of times, and that formula was what
brought us the Industrial Revolution. All the
things that we see, all this progress that we now
enjoy, has come from the fact that we've done
that. We're going to do the same thing now with
AI. We're going to distribute that on a grid, and
now you can take that electric pump. You can
add some artificial intelligence, and now you
have a smart pump. And that, multiplied by a
million times, is going to be this second
Industrial Revolution. So now the car is going
down the highway, it's 250 horsepower, but in
addition, it's 250 minds. That's the auto-driven
car. It's like a new commodity; it's a new utility.
The AI is going to flow across the grid - the cloud
- in the same way electricity did. So everything
that we had electrified, we're now going to
cognify. And I would suggest, then, that the
formula for the next 10,000 start-ups is very,
very simple, which is to take x and add AI. That
is the formula, that's what we're going to be
doing. And that is the way in which we're going
to make this second Industrial Revolution. And
by the way - right now, this minute, you can log
on to Google and you can purchase AI for six
cents, 100 hits. That's available right now. So the
third aspect of this is that when we take this AI
and embody it, we get robots. And robots are
going to be bots, they're going to be doing many
of the tasks that we have already done. A job is
just a bunch of tasks, so they're going to redefine
our jobs because they're going to do some of
those tasks. But they're also going to create
whole new categories, a whole new slew of tasks
that we didn't know we wanted to do before.
They're going to actually engender new kinds of
jobs, new kinds of tasks that we want done, just
as automation made up a whole bunch of new
things that we didn't know we needed before, and
now we can't live without them. So they're going
to produce even more jobs than they take away,
but it's important that a lot of the tasks that we're
going to give them are tasks that can be defined
in terms of efficiency or productivity. If you can
specify a task, either manual or conceptual, that
can be specified in terms of efficiency or
productivity, that goes to the bots. Productivity
is for robots. What we're really good at is
basically wasting time. We're really good at
things that are inefficient. Science is inherently
inefficient. It runs on that fact that you have one
failure after another. It runs on the fact that you
make tests and experiments that don't work,
otherwise you're not learning. It runs on the fact
that there is not a lot of efficiency in it.
Innovation by definition is inefficient, because
you make prototypes, because you try stuff that
fails, that doesn't work. Exploration is inherently
inefficiency. Art is not efficient. Human
relationships are not efficient. These are all the
kinds of things we're going to gravitate to,
because they're not efficient. Efficiency is for
robots. We're also going to learn that we're going
to work with these AIs because they think
differently than us. When Deep Blue beat the
world's best chess champion, people thought it
was the end of chess. But actually, it turns out
that today, the best chess champion in the world
is not an AI. And it's not a human. It's the team
of a human and an AI. The best medical
diagnostician is not a doctor, it's not an AI, it's
the team. We're going to be working with these
AIs, and I think you'll be paid in the future by
how well you work with these bots. So that's the
third thing, is that they're different, they're utility
and they are going to be something we work with
rather than against. We're working with these
rather than against them. So, the future: Where
does that take us? I think that 25 years from now,
they'll look back and look at our understanding
of AI and say, "You didn't have AI. In fact, you
didn't even have the Internet yet, compared to
what we're going to have 25 years from now."
There are no AI experts right now. There's a lot
of money going to it, there are billions of dollars
being spent on it; it's a huge business, but there
are no experts, compared to what we'll know 20
years from now. So we are just at the beginning
of the beginning, we're in the first hour of all this.
We're in the first hour of the Internet. We're in
the first hour of what's coming. The most popular
AI product in 20 years from now, that everybody
uses, has not been invented yet. That means that
you're not late. Thank you.

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