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UPDATED TO 2023-2025 SYLLABUS

CAIE AS LEVEL
MATHEMATICS
SUMMARIZED NOTES ON THE STATISTICS 1 SYLLABUS
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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

1. Representation of Data
1.1. Types of Data

1.2. Stem-and-Leaf Diagrams

Used to represent data in its original form
Each piece of data split into 2 parts; stem & leaf
Leaf can only by 1 digit and should be written in ascending
order 1.3. Box-and-Whisker Plots
Always include a key on your diagram
Five figure summary:
Lowest and highest values
Lower and upper quartiles
Median
Mean & standard deviation most useful when data
roughly symmetrical & contains no outliers
Median and interquartile range typically used if data
skewed or if there are outliers.

Advantage: contains accuracy of original data

Back-to-back stem-and-leaf diagrams Advantage: easily interpreted and comparisons can easily
be made.
Note the order of the left side

1.4. Histograms
A bar chart which represents continuous data
Bars have no space between them
Area of each bar is proportional to frequency

F requency = F requency Density × Class Width

For open ended class width, double the size of previous
class width and use this
If range ‘0 − 9 ’ then class width is ‘−0.5 ≤ x ≤ 9.5 ’

1.5. Cumulative Frequency Graphs

Upper quartile = 75
Lower quartile = 25

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

Median = 50 Solution:
Use cumulative frequency to find the middle value i.e.
I nterquartile Range = U pper Quartile − Lower Quartile
20 ÷ 2 = 10
When finding median & quartiles, draw in vertical and
horizontal dashed lines. ∴ you are finding the 10th value
Points are plotted at upper class boundaries
The 10th value lies between 20 and 25
Join points together with straight lines unless asked to
draw a cumulative frequency curve

1.6. Skewness
Symmetrical: Median line lies in the middle of the box (i.e.
UQ – median = median – LQ)
Positively skewed: median line lies closer to LQ than UQ (12 − 4 ) : (25 − 20)
(i.e. UQ – median > median – LQ)
Negatively skewed: median line lies closer to UQ than to (12 − 10 ) : (25 − M edian)
the LQ (i.e. UQ – median < median – LQ) 12 − 10
25 − M edian = × (25 − 20 )
12 − 4
​

M edian = 23.75

2.3. Mean
Sum of data divided by number of values

∑ xi
x=
​

n
or
2. Measure of Central
∑ x i fi
x=
Tendency
​ ​

∑ fi
​

Important as it uses all the data values

2.1. Mode Disadvantage: affected by extreme values
If data is grouped – use mid-point of group as x
Ungrouped data: mode is the most frequently occurred Coded mean: if being used to calculate standard
value deviation, can be used as is else:
Grouped data: modal class is the class with highest
frequency density 1 ∑ (ax − b)
x= ( ​ + b) ​

Not suitable if the data values are very varied a n

1 ∑ (ax − b)f
2.2. Median x= (
​ + b) ​

a f

Middle value when data is ordered

If n odd, median = 12
th
(n + 1 ) value
​
3. Measure of Variation
If n even, median = 12 nth value
​

Not affected by extreme values 3.1. Variance of Discrete Data

Estimating Median from Grouped Frequency Table: 1
x Frequency f Cumulative Frequency ∑ (x i − x)2
​ ​

n
10 − 20 4 4 or
20 − 25 8 12
1
25 − 35 5 17 ∑ x 2i − x 2
​ ​

n
35 − 50 3 20
3.2. Standard Deviation

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

Deviation from the mean is the difference between a =∑ ( x − 50 ) = 81.4 and ∑ (x − 50 )2 =

value and the mean value 671.0
The standard deviation is the average of all of these Find variance of speeds and hence find the value of ∑ x 2
deviations Solution:
If coded mean and sums are given, use as it is, standard Finding the variance using coded mean
deviation not altered 2
Variance = 671.0
22 ​ − ( 81.4
22 ) = 16.81
​

Find the
∑ (x i − x )2 ∑ x i 2 actual
2
sum
Standard deviation = Variance = = −x
​ ​

∑ x = 81.4 + (22 × 50 ) = 1181.4

​ ​ ​ ​ ​

n n

∑ (x i − x )2 fi ∑ x i 2 f into
Standard deviation = = Put this back
− x 2 variance formula
Variance =
​ ​ ​

∑ fi ∑ fi
​ ​ ​ ​ ​

​ ​

∑ x2 1181.4 2
16.81 = −( )
3.3. Variance in Frequency Table 22
​ ​

∑ (xi −x)2 fi ∑ x 2f ∴ ∑ x 2 = 2900.5 × 22

​

∑ fi ​
or ∑ ifi i
​

​
​

​
​

​ − x2
{W04-P06} Question 4: ∑ x 2 = 63811
The ages, x years, of 18 people attending an evening class
are summarised by the following totals:
∑ x = 745 , ∑ x 2 = 33 951 3.4. Range
i. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the ages of
this group of people. Interquartile range = Upper quartile - Lower quartile
ii. One person leaves group and mean age of the remaining Range = Largest value - Smallest value
17 people is exactly 41 years. Find age of the person who left
and standard deviation of the ages of the remaining 17 3.5. Coded Data
people.
Solution: 1
Var(x) = Var(ax − b)
Part (i): a2
​

σ=
∑ x2
n
− x2 ​ ​ x=
∑x
n
​
4. Probability
σ = 13.2 x = 41.4 4.1. Basic Rules
Part (ii):
The total age of the 18 people All probabilities lie between 0 and 1
P (A) = The probability of event A
∑ x = 745
Number of equally likely outcomes
P(A) =
Total number of equally likely outcomes
​

Find the total age of the 17 people

P (A ) = 1 − P (A) = The probability of not A

′
∑ x = 41 × 17 = 697
To simplify a question, represent info in a tree diagram:
Subtract the two to get the age
745 − 697 = 48 years
Calculating the new standard deviation
Find the ∑ x 2 of the 17 people

∑ x 2 = 33 951 − 48 2 = 31 647

Find the standard deviation

31 647 {S08-P06} Question 7:

σ= − (41)2 = 13.4
17 A die is biased so that the probability of throwing a 5 is 0.75
​ ​

and the probabilities of throwing a 1, 2, 3, 4 or 6 are all equal.

{S13-P62} Question 2:
The die is thrown thrice. Find the probability that the result is
A summary of the speeds, x kilometres per hour, of 22 cars 1 followed by 5 followed by any even number.
passing a certain point gave the following information: Solution:

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

The probability of getting a 1 When adding P(A) & P(B), we counted the “middle part” twice,
so we must subtract it.
1 − 0.75 = 0.25 Example:
P(Get Kings or Hearts) = 4/52 + 13/52 – 1/52
5 numbers ∴ 0.25 ÷ 5 = 0.05
1/52 comes from the king of hearts
The probability of getting a 5 = 0.75
The probability of getting an even number can be 2, 4 or 6 ∴
4.3. Conditional Probability
0.05 × 3 = 0.15
Calculation of probability of one event given that another,
Total Probability connected event, had occurred.
Conditional Probability formula:
0.05 × 0.75 × 0.15 = 0.00563
P (A and B )
P (B ∣A) =
4.2. Mutually Exclusive Events P ( A)
​

Or, in another form:

P (A and B ) = P (A) P (B ∣A)

"Probability of event A and event B equals the probability of

event A times the probability of event B given event A has
occurred"
Example:

4 3
P (Get 2 kings) = ×
52 51
​ ​

2 events which have no common outcomes or can’t
happen at the same time.
Both events are “Get a king” but since one king has been
picked up, the next probability has changed. In other words,
3
51 is P (Get a king ∣ Get a king) , the probability that you
​

Examples of MEEs: get a king given that you’ve already gotten one.
Looking Left & Looking Right. {S07-P06} Question 2:
Coin toss: Heads & Tails. Jamie is equally likely to attend or not to attend a training
Cards: Kings & Aces. session before a football match. If he attends, he is certain to
Examples of not MEEs: be chosen for the team which plays in the match. If he does
Cards: Kings and Hearts. (we have Kings of Hearts) not attend, there is a probability of 0.6 that he is chosen for
Students: People who study French and Spanish (some the team.
can study both)
Rules of MEEs: 1. Find the probability that Jamie is chosen for team.
2. Find the probability that Jamie attended the training
P (A and B ) = 0 session, given that he was chosen for the team.

In other words, the probability of both events happening is 0 Solution:

because they can’t occur at the same time. Part (i)
Probability attends training and chosen
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)
0.5 × 1 = 0.5
In other words, the probability of A or B happening is just their
individual probabilities being added together. Example: Probability does not attend and is chosen
P(Get King AND Queen) = 0
P(Get King OR Queen) = 1/13 + 1/13 0.5 × 0.6 = 0.3
Total probability
Rules of Not MEEs:

P (A and B ) = P (Chosen) = 0.3 + 0.5 = 0.8

0
Because events can happen at the same time, the probability
of both events happening is not 0.
P (A or B ) = P (A) + P (B ) − P (A and B )
Since we are looking for P (Chosen), we have to find every
possible way (every possible probability) that Jamie is chosen,
then sum them up.
Part (ii)

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

This is a conditional probability question, and we have to look does a direct method, they will have to count Even × Even
for P (Attends ∣ Chosen). and Even × Odd.
Making P (C ) the subject gives us:
P (Attends and Chosen)
P (Attends∣Chosen) = 3
P (Chosen)
​

∴ P (C ) =
4
​

0.5
P (Attends∣Chosen) = = 0.625 For an independent event, P (A and B ) = P (A) × P (B)
0.8
​

Old Question Question 7: 1

P (A and B ) = P (1 and 5 ) =
Events A and B are such that P (A) = 0.3, P (B ) = 0.8 36
​

and P (A and B ) = 0.4 . State, giving a reason in each

=
 P (A) × P (B)
case, whether A and B are
3
1. Independent P (A and C ) = P [(2, 5 ) + (4, 5 ) + (6, 5 )] =
36
​

2. mutually exclusive
=
 P (A) × P (C )
Solution:
Part (i) 2
P (B and C ) = P [(2, 4 ) + (4, 2 )] =
A and B are not mutually exclusive because: 36
​

P (A and B) does not equal 0 =

Part (ii)
 P (B) × P (C )
A and B are not independent because: ∴ none are independent.
P (A) × P (B ) does not equal 0.4 As said from the previous worked question, we use the
Instead of using P (A and B ) = 0 or P (A and B ) = equation P (A and B ) = P (A) × P (B) not as a formula
P (A) × P (B ) as a formula, we can also use it as a test to but as a test to see whether two events are independent or
see if such events satisfy the conditions to be a Mutually not.
Exclusive Event or Independent Event.
{S11-P63} Question 4: 4.4. Independent Events
Tim throws a fair die twice and notes the number on each
throw. Events A, B, C are defined as follows. Events that are not connected to each other in any way, or
A: the number on the second throw is 5 the next event does not rely from the previous event.
B: the sum of the numbers is 6 Examples of Independent events:
C: the product of the numbers is even Coin tosses
By calculation find which pairs, if any, of the events A, B and C Dice rolling
are independent. Examples of not Independent events:
Solution: Picking a ball from a bag (The next probability will
Probability of Event A = P(Any Number) × P(5) increase due to a decrease in the number of balls in
the bag)
1 1
∴ P ( A) = 1 × = Multiplication Law for IEs:
6 6
​ ​

Finding the probability of Event B P (A and B ) = P (A) × P (B)

Number of ways of getting a sum of 6:
In other words, the probability that events A and B occur is
5 and 1 1 and 5 4 and 2 2 and 4 3 and 3
just by multiplying them.
1 1 5
∴ P (B ) = ( × )×5 =
6 6 36 5. Permutations and
​ ​ ​

Finding the probability of Event C

One minus method; you get an odd only when odd multiplies Combinations
by another odd number:

3 3 5.1. Factorial
1 − P (C ) = ×
6 6
​ ​

The number of ways of arranging n unlike objects in a line

1 − P (C ) represents the probability of getting an odd when
doing the product of the two numbers, which can only occur
when an odd number is multiplied by another odd number
which is 36 × 36 . This method is much easier because if one
​ ​
is n!
n! = n(n − 1)(n − 2) ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ ×3 × 2 × 1
Total arrangements for a word with repeated letters:

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

(Number of Letters)! The probability distribution of a discrete random variable

(Repeated Letter)! is a listing of the possible values of the variable and the
​

corresponding probabilities
If more than one letter repeated, multiply the factorial of the Total of all probability always equals 1
repeated in the denominator Can calculate unknowns in a probability distribution by
Total arrangements when two people be together: summing them to equal 1
For the discrete random variable x :
Consider the two people as one unit
Expected value of a random variable or its mean:
Example:
In a group of 10, if A and B have to sit next to each other, how E (x ) = μ = ∑ x i p i ​ ​

many arrangements are there?

To calculate the variance of a random variable, first
Solution:
calculate the expected value of a random variable
(9!) × (2!) squared

2! is necessary because A and B can swap places E (x 2 ) = ∑ (x i )2 × p i ​ ​

If question asks for two people not to be next to each Finally, to calculate the variance
other, simply find total arrangements (10!) and subtract
the impossible i.e. (9!) × (2!) σ 2 = ∑ (x i − μ)2 p i = ∑ x 2i p i − μ2
​ ​ ​ ​

Total arrangements when items cannot be together:

Example:
In how many ways can the letters in the word SUCCESS be 6.2. Examples
arranged if no two S’s are next to one another?
{S05-P06} Question 3:
Solution:
A fair dice has four faces. One face is coloured pink, one is
orange, one is green and one is black. Five such dice are
thrown and the number that fall on a green face is counted.
The random variable X is the number of dice that fall on a
green face. Draw up a table for probability distribution of X,
S has 5 different places it can be placed into. giving your answers correct to 4 d.p.
From previous note, we must divide by repeated letters Solution:
No. of Arrangements = 4! 2! ×
5×4×3 = 120
3! ​ ​ This is a binomial distribution where the probability of
success is 14 and the number of trials is 5
​

5.2. Combination 1 x 3 n−x

P (X = x ) = nC x ( ) ( )
4 4
​ ​ ​

The number of ways of selecting r objects from n unlike

objects is: The dice are rolled five times thus the number of green faces
n! one can get ranges from 0 to 5
n
Cr = Use formula to obtain probabilities e.g. P (X = 1 ) ,
r! (n − r )!
​ ​ ​

1 1 3 4
Order does not matter P (X = 1 ) = 5C 1 ( ) ( ) = 0.3955
4 4
​ ​ ​

5.3. Permutations Thus, draw up a probability distribution table

The number of ordered arrangements of r objects taken

from n unlike objects is:

n! {W11-P63} Question 3:
n
Pr = A factory makes a large number of ropes with lengths either
(n − r )!
​ ​ ​

3m or 5m. There are four times as many ropes of length 3m

Order matters as there are ropes of length 5m. One rope is chosen at
random. Find the expectation and variance of its length.
Solution:
6. Discrete Random Variables From information given, calculate probabilities

4
6.1. Probability Distribution Tables P (3m Rope) =
5
​

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

1 P (10 ) = 14C 10 × 0.75 10 × 0.25 4 = 0.220

P (5m Rope) = ​

5
P (11 ) = 14C 11 × 0.75 11 × 0.25 3 = 0.240
Calculate expectation/mean
​

Probability with 11 is higher, therefore, X = 11

4 1
E (x ) = ∑ x i p i = (3 × ) + (5 × ) = 3.4 {W11-P62} Question 6:
5 5
​ ​ ​ ​

In Luttley College, 60 % of students are boys. Students can

Calculate expectation squared choose exactly one of Games, Drama or Music on Friday
afternoons. 75 % of the boys choose Games, 10 % choose
4 1
E (x 2 ) = ∑ (x i ) × p i = (3 2 × ) + (5 2 × ) = 12.2 Drama, and remainder choose Music. Of the girls, 30 %
2
5 5 choose Games, 55 % choose Drama and the remainder
​ ​ ​ ​

choose Music. 5 drama students are chosen. Find the

Calculate the variance
probability that at least 1 of them is a boy.
σ =∑
2
x 2i p i 2 2
− μ = 12.2 − (3.4 ) = 0.64 Solution:
First, we calculate the probability of selecting a boy who is a
​ ​

drama student, a conditional probability:

7. Binomial Distribution P (Boy∣Drama )
P (S ) =
P (Drama )
​

Can be used to model the number of successes x in a

series of n repeated independent trials where the P (Boy) × P (Drama )
P (S ) =
probability of success for each trial p is constant (P (Boy) × P (Drama )) + (P (Girl) × P (Dr
Conditions:
Fix number of trials n
0.6 × 0.1 3
P (S ) = =
(0.6 × 0.1 ) + (0.4 × 0.55 ) 14
​ ​

Only 2 possible outcomes & are mutually exclusive

Outcomes of each trial independent of each other We can calculate the probability there is at least 1 boy
Probability of success p at each trial is constant present from 5 drama students using a binomial distribution
3
with 5 trials and P of success = 14
X ∼ B(n, p)
​

Find the probability of 0 and subtract the answer from 1:

P (X = x) = ( )p x (1 − p)n−x
n
​
P (X ≥ 1 ) = 1 − P (X = 0)
x
3 0 11 5
where x is the number of successes, x = 0, 1, 2, 3, ..., n P (X ≥ 1 ) = 1 − 5C 0 × ( ) ×( )
14 14
​ ​

To calculate the expected value of a random variable or

its mean with a binomial distribution: P (X ≥ 1 ) = 0.701

E(X) = μ = np
8. The Normal Distribution
To calculate the variance:

σ 2 = np(1 − p) 8.1. Introduction

7.2. Examples
{S11-P63} Question 6:
The probability that Sue completes a Sudoku puzzle correctly
is 0.75. Sue attempts 14 Sudoku puzzles every month. XX
denotes the number that she completes successfully. Find the
value of X that has the highest probability. You may assume A normal distribution is used to model a continuous
this value is one of the two values closest to the mean of X . random variable
Solution:
Calculate the mean of X {W13-P61} Question 1:
It is given that X ∼ N (30 , 49), Y ∼ N (30, 16) and Z ∼
E (X ) = 14 × 0.75 = 10.5 N (50, 16). On a single diagram with a horizontal axis from
0 to 70, sketch 3 curves to represent the distributions of
Successful puzzles completed have to be a whole number so X, Y and Z .
they can either be 10 or 11. Solution:

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

For X , plot centre of curve at 30 and calculate σ = 4 9 ​ P (Z ≤ −a) = 1 − P (Z ≤ a)

Plot 3 × σ to the left and right i.e. 30 − 21 = 9 and 30 +
21 = 51 . Follow the example for the other curves. P (Z ≤ −2 ) = 1 − P (Z ≤ 2 )

Search for 2 in the normal tables

P (Z ≤ −2 ) = 1 − 0.9773 = 0.0228

4. Find the probability of P (10 ≤ X ≤ 30)

Split inequality into two using:

P (a ≤ Z ≤ b) = P (Z ≤ b) − P (Z ≤ a)

P (10 ≤ X ≤ 30 ) = P (X ≤ 30 ) − P (X ≤ 10 )
8.2. Standardising a Normal Distribution
Standardize values
To convert a statement about X ∼ N (μ, σ 2 ) to a
= P (Z ≤ 2.5 ) − P (Z ≤ −2.5 )
statement about N (0, 1 ) , use the standardization equation:
Convert negative value to positive
X−μ
Z=
= P (Z ≤ 2.5 ) − (1 − P (Z ≤ 2.5 ))
​

σ
P (X ≥ x) = 1 − P (X ≤ x) Search for 2.5 in the normal tables

8.3. Finding Probabilities = 0.9938 − (1 − 0.9938 ) = 0.9876

Example: 8.4. Using Normal Tables Given

For a random variable X with normal distribution
Probabilities
X ∼ N (20, 4 2 )
{S12-P61} Question 6:
Solution: The lengths of body feathers of a particular species of bird
are modelled by a normal distribution. A researcher
1. Find the probability of P (X ≤ 25) measures the lengths of a random sample of 600 feathers
and finds that 63 are less than 6 cm long and 155 are more
Standardize the probability
than 12 cm long.
25 − 20 i. Find estimates of the mean and standard deviation of the
Z= = 1.25 lengths of body feathers of birds of this species.
4
​

ii. In a random sample of 1000 body feathers from birds of

Search for this value in normal tables this species, how many would the researcher expect to find
with lengths more than 1 standard deviation from the mean?
Φ (1.25 ) = 0.8944
Solution:
2. Find the probability of P (X ≥ 25) Part (i):
Interpreting the question and finding probabilities:
Change from greater than to less than using: P (X < 6 ) = 0.105 P (X > 12 ) = 0.258
For X < 6 , the probability cannot be found on the tables
P (Z ≥ a) = 1 − P (Z ≤ a)
which means it is behind the mean and therefore we must
P (X ≥ 25 ) = 1 − P (X ≤ 25 ) find 1− and assume probability is negative
Using the probability from above
−P (X < 6 ) = 0.895
P (X ≥ 25 ) = 1 − 0.8944 = 0.1057
Using the standardization formula and working back from the
3. Find the probability of P (X ≤ 12) table as we are given probability

6−μ
Standardize the probability = −1.253
​

σ
12 − 20
Z= = −2 Convert the greater than sign to less than
4
​

Change from negative value to positive by: P (X > 12 ) = 1 − P (X < 12 )

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

P (X < 12 ) = 1 − 0.258 = 0.742 Conditions for approximations: np > 5 and n(1 − p) >
5
Work back from table and use standardization formula
{S09-P06} Question 3:
(12 − μ) On a certain road 20% of the vehicles are trucks, 16% are
= 0.650
​

σ buses and remainder are cars. A random sample of 125

Solve simultaneous equations vehicles is taken. Using a suitable approximation, find the
σ = 3.15 and μ = 9.9 probability that more than 73 are cars.
Part (ii): Solution:
Greater than 1sd from μ means both sides of the graph Find the probability of cars
however area symmetrical ∴ find greater & double it
1 − (0.16 + 0.2 ) = 0.64
Using values calculated from (i)
Form a binomial distribution equation
P (X > (9.9 + 3.15 ) = P (X > 13.05)
X ∼ B(125, 0.64)
Standardize it
Check if normal approximation can be used
13.05 − 9.9
=1 125 × 0.64 = 80 and 125 × (1 − 0.64 ) = 45
3.15
​

Both values are greater than 5 so normal can be used

Convert the greater than sign to less than
X ∼ B (125, 0.64 ) ⇔ V ∼ N (80, 28.8 )
P (Z > 1 ) = 1 − P (Z < 1 )
Apply the continuity correction
Find probability of 1 and find P (Z > 1 )
P (X > 73 ) = P (X ≥ 73.5)
P (Z > 1 ) = 1 − 0.841 = 0.1587
Finding the probability
Double probability as both sides taken into account
P (X ≥ 73.5 ) = 1 − P (X ≤ 73.5 )
0.1587 × 2 = 0.3174
Standardize it
Multiply probability with sample
73.5 − 80
0.3174 × 1000 = 317 birds Z= = −1.211
28.8
​

8.5. Approximation of Binomial As it is a negative value, we must one minus again

Distribution 1 − (1 − P (Z < −1.211 ) = P (Z < 1.211)

The normal distribution can be used as an approximation Using the normal tables
to the binomial distribution
For a binomial to be converted to normal, then: P = 0.8871

For X∼ B(n, p) where q = 1 − p :

np > 5 and nq > 5 9. Geometric Distribution
If conditions are met then: X ∼ Geo(p)
X ∼ B (n, p ) ⇔ V ∼ N (np, npq ) A Geometric distribution can be written as:

8.6. Continuity Correction Factor (e.g. 6) P (X = x) = p(1 − p)x−1

p = Probability of success
Binomial Normal
Only for x ≥ 1 and x a positive integer
x = 6 5.5 ≤ x ≤ 6.5 Mean of a Geometric Distribution:‎
x > 6 x ≥ 6.5 1
x ≥ 6 x ≥ 5.5 E(x) = μ = ​

p
x < 6 x ≤ 5.5
‎C umulative function:
x ≤ 6 x ≤ 6.5
P (X > x) = (1 − p)x

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHEMATICS

P (X ≤ x) = 1 − (1 − p)x 1 1 6−1
P (X = 6 ) = ( ) (1 − )
12 12
​ ​

The mode of all geometric distributions is 1

P (X = x ) ≈ 0.0539
9.2. Examples
Part (d)
{S20-P51}‎Question 1:‎ Finding P (X < 8) means that we must sum all the
The score when two fair six-sided dice are thrown is the ‎sum probabilities from x = 0 to x = 7 . Let us use the summation
of the two numbers on the upper faces. notation to make calculations much simpler
1
a) Show that the probability that the score of 4 is 12 ​
‎ 7 n−1
1 1
The two dice are thrown repeatedly until a score of 4 is ∑ (1 − )
‎obtained. The number of throws taken is denoted by the 12 12
​ ​ ​

n=1
‎random variable X .‎
7
b) Find the mean of X . 1 11 n−1
c) Find the probability that a score of 4 is first ‎obtained on the = ∑( )
12 n=1 12
​ ​ ​

6th throw.‎
d) Find P (X < 8) This is a geometric series since our r is between -1 and 1,
Solution: −1 < r < 1 . Let us use the formula of the sum of geometric
Part (a) ‎To get a score of 4, there are three ways to do it:‎ series:
‎3+1
1+3‎ N
1 − rN
2+2 ∑ a (r )n−1 = a
1−r
​ ​

So now we calculate each probability and then add them up:‎ n=1

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Applying it:
( )( )+ ( )( )+ ( )( ) =
6 6 6 6 6 6 12 7
​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​

7
1 1 − ( 11
n−1
1 11 12 )
∑( ) =
​

Part (b) 12 n=1 12 12 1 − 11

​ ​ ​ ​ ​

12 ​

This is a geometric distribution; its mean must be μ = 1

p ​

1
Because p = 1 Both the 12 cancels, leaving us with:
​

12 ​

7
11
∴ μ = 12 1−( ) ≈ 0.456
12
​

Part (c)
First obtained in the 6th throw means P (X = x ) , using the
formula for geometric mean:

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This document is authorised for personal use only by Ziyaad Ismail at undefined on 07/05/24.
CAIE AS LEVEL
Mathematics

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