HSBC Research - Life Sciences Healthcare A - 38 Pages

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Life Sciences & Healthcare : A tale of two recoveries - pre-close prep kit
Wed Mar 27 2024 ASR
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27 March 2024
Equities
Life Sciences & Healthcare Life Sciences & Healthcare
A tale of two recoveries - pre-close prep kit Developed Markets
◆ Pre-close season has started, and we present the key dates for Rajesh Kumar*
calls and early feedback Head, European Life Sciences & Healthcare Research
HSBC Bank plc
rajesh4kumar@hsbcib.com
◆ Life Science tools & diagnostics and China recovery timing are +44 20 7991 1629
key focus for MedTech Sezgi Oezener*, CFA

Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare Research
HSBC Continental Europe SA, Germany
◆ IRA price negotiations/margins, acquisition integration and sezgi.oezener@hsbc.de
+49 211 9103290
impact from Change hack might matter more for therapeutics
Morten Herholdt*
Key issues ahead: Despite solid full-year reporting by the Life Science and Healthcare HSBC Bank plc
sector, the market seems undecided on the shape of the 2024 growth rate phasing. morten.herholdt@hsbc.com
+ 44 20 7992 4082
Q1 pre-close season tends to firm up the market’s conviction on phasing of growth and
Yifeng Liu*
margins. We present the key dates and commentary from/ahead of pre-close calls as an Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare Research
aide for navigating the sector’s results season (pages 4-6). HSBC Bank plc
yifeng.liu@hsbc.com
Life Sciences versus Diagnostics: So far, in our “fallen angels” category, the +44 20 7 9919355
market seems excited regarding life science and tools companies. Whilst most of the Shubhangi Gupta*, Ph.D.
companies (bar Sartorius) have given conservative guidance and H2-weighted HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private
recovery commentary, the market seems keen to show a degree of faith in the Limited
shubhangi.gupta@hsbc.co.in
recovery potential (see charts on page 3). The kicker in the investment thesis of this +91 80 4555 2143
space is that if there were to be rate cuts, the potential for biotech funding recovery Sidharth Sahoo*
and multiple expansion offers additional upside optionality, in our view. If the rate cuts Analyst, Life Sciences & Healthcare Research
HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private
are not as large, even then the cyclical recovery potential remains attractive for the Limited
sidharth.sahoo@hsbc.co.in
space. Further, the Biosecure Act might cause a geo-political split of the suppliers’
+91 77 3813 4135
capacity, offering structural growth potential for the sub-sector.
Yessica Sanchez*
In contrast, the market does not seem as excited about diagnostic companies which are HSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, Grupo
also anticipating growth recovery post COVID-19 wash out from comps in 2023, and Financiero HSBC
yessica.sanchez@hsbc.com.mx
sequential steady momentum. This is despite the fact that during the pandemic the +55 52 8551 7904
companies have expanded their installed base that offers latent potential to sell higher Damayanti Kerai*
margin consumables in the coming years. However, unlike the life science tools space, the Analyst, India Healthcare
HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private
optionality on interest rate cuts is likely smaller for diagnostics. We think that there is a Limited
greater margin of safety in diagnostic companies’ valuations than life sciences at this point. damayantikerai@hsbc.co.in
+91 22 6164 0692
Mind the margins for therapeutics: The combination of IRA price negotiations, and Yash Singhee*
generics, phasing of margin expansion/contraction in the therapeutics segment is likely to Associate
Bangalore
firm up in 2024. Another factor to consider is that whilst not many companies have called
out the impact of the Change hack on their prescription trends yet, the spread between the
* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is
widely tracked prescription data and reported figures might be a source of angst. Our not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations
discussion with UnitedHealth suggests that the industry impact should have eased by
March. However, how the flush of backlogs affects coming quarters is likely to remain
important in shaping growth expectations to Q1’25e. HSBC Global Investment Summit
Notes of the week 8–10 April 2024 | Conrad Hong Kong
1. BioNTech (BNTX US): Hold: Focus is now on R&D productivity, 22 March 2024
Register
2. Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG US): Buy: Da Vinci 5 approval implications, 20 March 2024
Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc

This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in
View HSBC Global Research at:
the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. https://www.research.hsbc.com
Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare
27 March 2024
Contents
Charts of the week:

Expectations ahead 3
Reporting season planner 4
News flow recap 7
Our thematic reports 9
Our latest reports 9
Share price and multiple trends 10
Sector multiples and valuation
comparisons 15
Sector multiples 17
Patent expiries and exposure,
by company 18
Catalysts calendar &
NPV exposure (USDm) 20
Disclosure appendix 34
Disclaimer 37
Charts of the week: Expectations ahead
Organic revenue growth recovery expectations for life sciences and tools are expected in Life science versus diagnostics- greater margin of safety in diagnostic valuations
consensus and market’s optimism
60% We believe life science companies seem to have momentum and growth expectations in their favour. The
companies are seen as structural growth companies with products and services embedded in customers’
40%
products, especially due to regulatory approval processes. This creates a recurring growth driver for the
20% sector. Given the COVID-19-led de-stocking and biotech funding impact in 2023, the comps for 2024e are
sequentially easier. This makes for an easy recovery story for the sector. That underpins the market’s bullish
0% stance on the sector.
Diagnostic names that have also suffered (more due to COVID-19 than biotech funding) through 2023 are
-20%
also set for comps-led recovery, in our view. However, in contrast with the market’s bullish stance on life
-40% sciences companies, the market does not seem as enthusiastic on diagnostic names’ recovery potential. We
think that the larger installed base of instruments during the pandemic allows for latent earnings potential for
-60% the sector through 2024e-25e. Relative to life science tools, the enthusiasm for cyclical recovery is also
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 limited. Therefore, we think that there might be a greater margin of safety in diagnostic valuations.
SRT3 GY - BPS organic growth DIM FP - organic growth
MRK GR - Lifesciences organic growth LONN VX - organic growth
DHR US - Biotech organic growth TMO US - Lifesciences organic growth
Source: GlobalData, HSBC Research
Organic revenue growth recovery expectations for diagnostics/tools are expected in consensus
but not yet in market’s optimism
75%
60%
45%
30%
15%
0%
-15%
-30%
-45%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

BIM FP cc revenue growth DIA IM cc revenue growth ERF FP cc revenue growth
ILMN US cc revenue growth LH US cc revenue growth QGEN US cc revenue growth
ROG SW (Diagnostics division)
Source: Refinitiv Eikon, HSBC Research
27 March 2024
3
4
Reporting season planner
Q1 2024 Pre-close Schedule and comments

Company Name Ticker Date Time Comment/Key issues
Completed
Company comments indicate sell-side estimates for revenue growth seem on the higher side (Vara consensus 10.4% organic growth). Q1 looks solid with easier China comps,
softer growth in following quarters due to challenging macro. Intraoral scanner market at high-single digit to low-double digits, growing faster than the group. New product
launches: iEXCEL implant system launched in the US in Q1, expected to be launched in Europe in Q3. Gross margin difference between premium and challenger brands is
single ppt. China VBP: 15-20% growth CAGR for next 18 months (used to be 20% earlier). VBP contract for 3-4 years; next round expected in 2026/27 where the focus is likely
Straumann STMN SW 21-Mar-24 to be more on local production rather than pricing.
Philips PHIA NA 22-Mar-24 We expect indications of the size of the legal liability,nature of margin recovery in PH and CC, timing of margin recovery in D&T
Q1 last year had benefited from wholesaler stocking on Semglutide revenues. In addition, Q4-23 growth run rate was flattered by gross-to-net adjustment reversal in Wegovy.
Novo Nordisk NOVOB DC 22-Mar-24 Change hack might have had some impact. Rare disease seems to have stabilised.
Q4 and Q1 are usually seasonally strong due to RSV; Beyfortus had fantastic launch in the US, observed impact for Synagis in Q4 likely to carry on in Q1 due to Beyfortus
launch. Sanofi shipped 230k new shots of Beyfortus in Jan. Efa-alfa's launch will be predominantly a 2025 story; Elocta successfully maintains and grow numbers of patients to
offset pricing pressure, benefit from strong international markets (Eastern Europe and Middle East); Doptelet expects good momentum, no revenue from China expected; Q-on-
SOBI SOBI SE 25-Mar-24 Q Gross margin negatively impacted by RSV shifting towards Beyfortus; Opex expected to be higher Q-o-Q as the CTI integration still has a negative impact on margin
Litigation strategy is exploring all options. The ‘Texas two-step bankruptcy’ is one of the tools, companies have used to try to avoid litigation liabilities in the past. The company
has suggested that the press commentary is speculation and they have not indicated they are preparing for it. That said, they say they are considering all the tools. There are
three things they are flagging- Crop science: EUR600m yoy negative EBITDA impact from lower Glyphosate prices and switch to Soy (from corn in 5m acres). VA consensus
seem to expect cEUR400m impact currently so run-rate EUR200m in Q1. Net financial results higher by EUR400m (CMD guidance had indicated that) and Xarelto (consensus -
9.6%) decline of double digit in guidance (seems consistent with consensus). Bear in mind, Xarelto is one of the most profitable products, so operational gearing of such decline
Bayer BAYN GR 25-Mar-24 is high. Consensus is modelling margin pressure in Pharma, however the timing of generic competition is uncertain so this could create miss/beat dynamics in first quarter.
Markets are healthy, according to the company, but Germany and France are still below expectations. Hearing instruments business recovered in H2, local currency growth of mid-
single digit in H2 expected. Audiological care: consensus is optimistic; H2 more muted than H1. Nice pickup on cochlear implants (low-single digit for full year and high-single digit
for H2) but consumer remains challenging (negative mid-single digit for the year for consumer). Fx headwinds are easing now. The company expects 6-7% fx headwind at top-line
and 12-14% at adj EBITDA level, more on the lower-end. Minimal fx headwind for next year. The company has guided for P&L tax-rate of 18% for next year (vs 15% this year).
Have regained some share in VA, which also has higher margins. No price increases made since July last year. Skew next year: No guidance for NY yet. Next platform due in
Sonova SOON SW 25-Mar-24 summer, 1H launch costs, revenues H2. R&D: the company doesn’t see the need to raise R&D spending but it is true that the market is moving faster now. Scale helps
On the wake of the cyberattack, the company expects a high level of medical loss ratio in Q1 and Q2 because of removal of pre-authorisation from March 8 onwards till the end of the
quarter leading to higher level of utilisation. The relaxations include removal of prior authorisation for outpatient services for MA, utilisation review for inpatient admissions and drug
formulary exception review for Medicare Part D. The aid of USD2bn given to smaller providers is for 30 days and will see recovery in Q2. The sale of Brazil operations is complete and
the company expects the impairment charges in reported GAAP numbers in Q1. It is too early to comment on the structural impact of the cyberattack. The company expects to see an
United Health Group UNH US 25-Mar-24 impact in the Insurance and Optum insights divisions (Change Healthcare is a part) while they expect limited impact in the Optum Health and Optum Rx divisions.

Eurofins ERF FP 26-Mar-24 Softness in European business, especially food testing business. Recovery in biophama business. Weak free cash flow. EBITDA margin pressure and potential price increases.
Sanofi SAN FP 26-Mar-24 VA consensus Q1 gross margin seems oddly optimistic, and not consistent with the company's guidance at the full-year results. Supply shortage of Beyfortus puts a limit on
growth in Q1. The company indicated the Dupixent target for the year remains EUR13bn sales, however Q1 tends to be seasonally weak (amongst other things due to co-pay
resets). Fx and gross margin commentary indicates consensus might be arithmetically 3-5% ahead of current guidance for 2024e, mainly due to Q1’24 and forex.
Timing of China recovery, any early indications of centralized procurement from various provinces in China, trajectory of recovery in Dx are key focus points. Pre-close
comment: Not much to say about the quarter as China anticorruption campaign continues to take a toll on equipment growth (affecting imaging, Varian and AT), all of which
should approach the bottom-end of FY24 guidance both in growth and margins as of H1. In line with earlier guidance, the company expects H2-loaded growth and margin
improvement. News of further China subsidies for healthcare, and historical trend point to China weakness being transient, while the quarter should point to a healthy book-to-bill
ratio and good momentum, despite China remaining below its potential. FX headwinds should diminish in Q2 vs Q1, while Varian growth also normalizes from very strong >20%
Siemens Healthineers SHL GR 26-Mar-24 growth rates both in Q1 and y/y.
27 March 2024
Reporting season planner
Q1 2024 Pre-close Schedule and comments

Company Name Ticker Date Time Comment/Key issues
Upcoming
Sartorius SRT3
27-Mar-24 8:30am (UTC) Topics should include: A long-awaited rebound in orders (both BPS & LPS), more concrete synergies from the PP acquisition, impact of Biosecure Act on key clients.
Teva Pharmaceutical TEVA US
27-Mar-24 12pm (UTC) US generics medicine market growth remains the debate under the pricing pressure. Is Austedo launch on track?
LivaNova LIVN US
28-Mar-24 12:30pm (UTC) Topics should include: 1) New CEO's first comments, 2) further details on Obstructive Sleep Apnea potential and launch decision criteria 3) can Essenz keep driving sales and
has there been change in the very benign competitive environment for cardiopulmonary.
Biogen BIIB US 28-Mar-24 1pm (UTC) Topics should include: Alzheimers uptake remains a key debate, including ARIA incidence. Can Spinraza return to growth? Performance of rare disease and disposal of
biosimilars.
Zoetis ZTS US 28-Mar-24 Topics should include: 1) side effect profile of Librela including Ataxia and its potential impact on Librela sales, 2) phasing of additional sg&a as the company launches d2c ads
to cater to faster than expected ramp up in Librela and Solensia sales, and 3) fx impact from exposure to Argentine Peso and Turkish Lira.
Coloplast COLOB DC 4-Apr-24 6am (UTC) FY24 guidance was c8% organic growth at constant fx, 11% reported growth with 4% contribution from Kerecis acquisition and 1% fx headwind. The company expects the
China ostomy business to improve but below the Strive 25 target of double-digit growth. The company expects interventional urology high-single digit growth, voice & respiratory
at 8-10%, advanced wound care growth higher than the market. Positive pricing impact expected but lower than last year. H1 lower growth than H2. Gross margin expected to
be around 68%, EBIT margin before special items at 27-28%, capex around DKK1.4bn with new manufacturing site in Portugal. Net financial expenses at negative DKK750m
and tax-rate 22%. New product launches: Luja (intermittent catheter ) already launched in 10 markets; Heylo (new digital ostomy tool) to launch in first half of 2024; Biatain
Silicone Fit launched in US in Jan; Peristeen Light launched in Feb and is expected to be launched across Europe in the next 12 months.
AstraZeneca AZN LN 4-Apr-24 11am (UTC) The market’s focus is likely to remain on commentary around the pipeline, especially Dato-dx. Commentary around IRA negotiations, Tagrisso’s exclusion from IRA, and growth
momentum in oncology are key sentiment drivers.
Moderna MRNA US 4-Apr-24 5pm (UTC) Moderna’s pipeline update, COVID-19 vaccine volumes/trends and RSV guidance are likely to remain the main point of focus
Roche ROG SW 4-Apr-24 9am (UTC) The cadence of growth after Q1’s COVID-19 antibody comp is likely to matter for near-term sentiment. Pipeline updates and timelines will remain a focus.
Bristol Myers Squibb BMY US 5-Apr-24 12:30pm (UTC) Topics should include: Impact of generic entries and cost increases from acquisitions on margins, and guidance for sales growth acceleration for the rest of the year. Full year
guidance excluded RayzeBio and Karuna, so updated guidance post the closures might remain a focus. Updates on acquisition integration and growth potential from
neuroscience as well as sub-Q Opdivo update might enable the market to look beyond the patent cliff. Questions around margins based on IRA discussions around Eliquis are
likely.
Abbvie ABBV US 9-Apr-24 3:30pm (GMT) Update on Humira, growth momentum on Rivoq and Skyrizi and momentum in aesthetics might remain the near term focus. Given the company’s acquisition momentum,
commentary on margin guidance might get some attention. Updates on ImmunoGen and Cerevel integration might also be an area of interest.
Amgen AMGN US 2nd Week TBC Topics should include: Obesity drugs MariTide (phase II, read H2) and AMG786 (oral in ph I, readout in H1). Tarlatamab PDUFA in June, Horizon performance after poor Q4.
of April Cost phasing given high cost guide in Q1.
Lonza LONN SW 26-Apr-24 Topics should include: Cyclical recovery in demand, Update on Roche’s acquisition led capacity and discussions with clients around capacity and Biosecure Act.
Merck KGaA MRK GR 30-Apr-24 Phasing of recovery in Life Sciences and Electronics remains the center of attention. Timing and lag of margin recovery to leading indicators might also be an area of focus.

Source: Company, HSBC Research, Visble Alpha
27 March 2024
5
6
Reporting Calendar
Name Ticker Date Time Period Description Domicile
Venus MedTech Hangzhou Inc 2500 HK 3/28/2024 Y 23 Y 2023 Earnings Release CHINA
BioMerieux BIM FP 4/9/2024 8:30 CET Capital Markets Day FRANCE
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH US 4/16/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release UNITED STATES
Johnson & Johnson JNJ US 4/16/2024 13:30 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Call UNITED STATES
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH US 4/16/2024 13:45 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Call UNITED STATES
Sartorius AG SRT GR 4/18/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release GERMANY
Sartorius Stedim Biotech DIM FP 4/18/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release FRANCE
Danaher Corp DHR US 4/23/2024 11:00 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release UNITED STATES
Novartis AG NOVN SW 4/23/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release SWITZERLAND
Danaher Corp DHR US 4/23/2024 13:00 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Call UNITED STATES
AddLife AB ALIFB SS 4/24/2024 08:00 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Call SWEDEN
Eurofins Scientific SE ERF FP 4/24/2024 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Sales and Revenue Release LUXEMBOURG
Roche Holding AG ROG SW 4/24/2024 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Sales and Revenue Release SWITZERLAND
Roche Holding AG ROG SW 4/24/2024 13:00 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Sales and Revenue Call SWITZERLAND
Align Technology Inc ALGN US 4/24/2024 Aft-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release UNITED STATES
Illumina Inc ILMN US 4/25/2024 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release UNITED STATES
Biogen Inc BIIB US 4/25/2024 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release UNITED STATES
Merck & Co Inc MRK US 4/25/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release UNITED STATES
Orion Oyj ORNBV FH 4/25/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release FINLAND
Sanofi SA SAN FP 4/25/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release FRANCE
Azelis Group NV AZE BB 4/25/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Sales and Revenue Release BELGIUM
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co BMY US 4/25/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release UNITED STATES
AstraZeneca PLC AZN LN 4/25/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release BRITAIN
Sanofi SA SAN FP 4/25/2024 13:30 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Call FRANCE
Merck & Co Inc MRK US 4/25/2024 14:00 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Call UNITED STATES
Gilead Sciences Inc GILD US 4/26/2024 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release UNITED STATES
AbbVie Inc ABBV US 4/26/2024 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release UNITED STATES
Amgen Inc AMGN US 4/26/2024 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release UNITED STATES
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO US 4/26/2024 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release UNITED STATES
BioMerieux BIM FP 4/26/2024 Q1 24 Q1 2024 Sales and Revenue Release FRANCE
Koninklijke Philips NV PHIA NA 4/29/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release NETHERLANDS
Eli Lilly & Co LLY US 4/30/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Earnings Release UNITED STATES
Straumann Holding AG STMN SW 4/30/2024 Bef-mkt Q1 24 Q1 2024 Sales and Revenue Release SWITZERLAND
Source: HSBC Research, Bloomberg

27 March 2024
News flow recap
Company Ticker Rating News flow Date HSBC Comment Latest report link
Bluebird Bio BLUE US Reduce Q4/FY23 Update, 26/03/2024 Bluebird today delayed its 10K filing and instead released headline results for 4Q 2023 with sales of USD7.8m in Q4 vs consensus’ USD18m. No Bluebird Bio (BLUE
filing delay and cost figures were provided. For the current quarter (Q1 24) there have been 9 patient starts to date - 7 for ZYNTEGLO and 2 for SKYSONA. This US): Reduce: A
2024 guidance compares to 4 and 0 respectively for Q4 23. A patient start on Lyfgenia is expected imminently, a slight change from the previously expected start question of time and
in Q1, with the company stating it has started receiving referrals with multiple patients enrolled but first patient start yet to be initiated. They expect money, 5 March 2023
to recognize revenue for the first Lyfgenia patient in Q3. For the first time the gross-to-net discounts were disclosed, amounting to 19% for 2023.
With the launch of Lyfgenia gross-to-net is expected to increase to 20%-25% for 2024. The company now has 62 QTCs activated across US, up
from 48 at Q3. In line with the previous statement, when announcing the funding deal with a group of lenders under Hercules Capital, the cash
runway is until Q1 2026. The filing delay relates to lease accounting and will relate to 2022 and 2023. The expected results are an increase in lease
assets and lease liabilities, as well as non-cash interest expense, but there should be no impact on sales nor cash levels. A filing is expected by 16
April 2024.
Illumina ILMN US Hold EU court adviser 21/03/2024 The European Commission was wrong to block Illumina’s USD8bn GRAIL acquisition, according to Nicholas Emiliou, advocate general of the Court Illumina: Hold:
backs Illumina on of Justice of EU. This opinion is non-binding but the majority of such opinions are followed by EU’s highest court. Illumina’s Article 22 appeal is Managing
GRAIL challenging the European Commission’s (EC) assertion of jurisdiction to review the GRAIL acquisition (decision from the European Court of Justice expectations or losing
expected later this year). The European Commission had ordered Illumina to divest GRAIL in October ‘23 and assessed a fine of EUR432m. The hegemony, 22 Feb
company says that if Illumina wins this appeal, the basis for the EC’s challenge to the acquisition, including its fine and divestment order, would be 2024
eliminated. Illumina had acquired GRAIL in 2021. The management has written down USD821m as an impairment for GRAIL in FY23, in addition to
USD3.9bn written down in FY22. The company has also started GRAIL divestment process and is expected to finalize the terms by end of Q2 24.
Lonza LONN SW Buy Q4 call 20/03/2024 Conference call questions were around updated guidance, growth trajectory of the new asset and capacity utilisation. The management
commentary acknowledged that the reason for this acquisition was largely due to the need of additional large-scale commercial capacities. The impact on the
upgraded guidance assumes revenue step-up from 2025, which was contributed by the current Roche projects from the site (approximately
occupying 30% capacity). The company confirmed that in the short-term no new modalities will be added into the site. Growth will likely accelerate
after projects mix gradually shifting away from existing Roche projects and more toward third-parties over the medium term. The management
shunned questions regarding market pricing for the new facilities, potential pipeline, the value of Roche contract, and any further potential M&A, but
reiterated there is strong demand and expectation for Lonza’s CDMO business. A question around the impact of the Biosecure Act was raised, the
management commented that the they were in active discussion, but “it is too early to tell”.
Philips PHIA NA Reduce Management 20/03/2024 Questions at our management briefing with Philips mainly centered on i. the company's financial transformation for the longer term ii. Personal Philips (PHIA NA):
Briefing liability claims and the implications of the consent decree and iii. the company’s positioning in AI and innovation. On the first point, management Reduce: Strong Q4
expects the order outlook to recover in H2 and expects to be on track to reach 2025 targets. On the personal liability claims, while no amount can ahead clouded by lack
safely be named, and the bellwether case is scheduled for 2025, expert reports and more testing may help bring some clarity sooner. On the of visibility, 21
Consent Decree, management reassured investors that the final document will bring no new financial implications other than what have already December 2023
been announced. On the company’s positioning in AI and innovation, since placing R&D under product lines, the company believes its innovation
has gained pace.
LivaNova LIVN US Hold Positive predictive 20/03/2024 LivaNova today reported a positive predictive outcome of their OSPREY trial in Sleep Apnea. According to the company this means that there is a LivaNova 28 Feb
outcome for sleep 97.5% probability that the endpoint will be met and enrollment in the trial will conclude earlier than expected. The planned interim analysis included 2024
apnea trial the first 90 patients and no further patients are deemed necessary for a successful outcome.

The protocol requires a 7-month follow-up of patients and when analysis has been carried out after the last patient visit the company will submit the
data to the FDA. The OSPREY trial is one of two strategic portfolio initiatives, the other being the RECOVER trial in difficult-to-treat depression. The
company has pointed to sleep apnea having USD700m-USD1bn sales potential.
BioNTech BNTX DE Hold Q4 call 20/03/2024 Conference call questions were focusing on 2024 revenue, opex and the pipeline update. The company’s 2024 revenue guidance was broadened
commentary compared to what was previously communicated, to take into account any risks of inventory write-offs from its partner Pfizer. Opex increase is
mainly due to an accelerated pipeline progress. The company commented that for COVID-19 vaccines, Comirnaty saw some pressure in the US
market share in the past season, but remained confident in 50% market share globally. There was significant interest in the company’s late-stage
pipeline candidates, HER2 ADC (BNT323) received a few questions on the company’s expectation on this asset’s clinical profile, powering of its
phase 3 study and its potential comparison against Enhertu, as expected in the DestinyBreast06 readout. The management had little explicit
commentary besides explaining that the phase 3 study is powered 90% on a PFS hazard ratio of somewhere between 0.65 and 0.7. In terms of
27 March 2024
capital allocation, the company emphasised the importance of execution going forward, focusing on the progressing pipeline with an opportunistic
approach to business development, given there is already a broad range of tools in the pipeline.
7
8
News flow recap
Company Ticker Rating News flow Date HSBC Comment Latest report link
BioNTech BNTX DE Hold Q4 result release 20/03/2024 BioNTech Q4 results missed on revenue, net profit and EPS, driven by lower COVID-19 vaccine revenue, which had an inventory write-down of Read our latest note
EUR291m by partner Pfizer. The company’s FY24 guidance is now slightly below the VA consensus expectation. Despite the weakened 2024 on BioNTech here.
revenue outlook, the company is putting continuous investment into its oncology pipeline. The PD-L1/4-1BB bispecific antibody BNT311
(collaboration with Genmab) will have data update from its phase 2 study (NCT05117242) in 1H 24. The company also announced that ex-Novartis
executive Annemarie Hanekamp is joining as the new Chief Commercial Officer, bringing in over 15 years of commercial experience in the industry.
Lonza LONN SW Buy Mid-term guidance 20/03/2024 Genentech’s Vacaville facility is one of the largest biologic manufacturing sites with a total capacity of 330kl, offering FDA and EMA standard Read our latest
raised biologic API capability. Lonza’s cash investment of CHF1.2bn plus additional capex of CHF500m to upgrade the facility will enhance its capability. report on Lonza
Lonza’s US sites currently have a total of over 124kl mammalian capacity, this acquisition makes a significant addition to the company’s offering in here.
the US.
Source: HSBC Research, company data, Visible Alpha estimates, GlobalData estimates, Bloomberg

27 March 2024
27 March 2024
Our thematic reports

◆ Novo/Lilly GLPnomics: Exploring bubble-ogy, 4 March 2024
◆ Life Sciences & Healthcare: Funding the future: exploring recovery scenarios, 10 January 2024
◆ Funding the future: Biopharma & AI Optimism, 10 January 2024
◆ Life Sciences & Healthcare: Stock picking in a US election year, 18 December 2023
Our latest reports

◆ BioNTech (BNTX US): Hold: Focus is now on R&D productivity, 22 March 2024
◆ Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG US): Buy: Da Vinci 5 approval implications, 20 March 2024
◆ Alcon (ALC SW) and Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX GY): Intensifying competition and shifting returns,
12 March 2024
◆ Eli Lilly & Co (LLY US): Buy: Alzheimer’s AdCom twist – examining the risk, 10 March 2024
◆ Straumann (STMN SW): Reduce: Optimistic growth at high multiples, 7 March 2024
◆ UCB (UCB BB): Buy: growth in promise, more to come in the pipe, 7 March 2024
◆ BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG US): Initiate at Buy: A growth story at value multiples,
6 March 2024
◆ Bluebird Bio (BLUE US): Reduce: A question of time and money, 5 March 2023
◆ LivaNova Plc (LIVN US): Hold: Base business fairly valued, too early to pay for SPI,
28 Feb 2024
◆ Fresenius Medical Care (FME GR): Hold: Growth remains elusive, 27 Feb 2024
◆ Moderna (MRNA US): Downgrade to Reduce: INT marches on but RSV alerts, 26 Feb 2024
◆ Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA US): Buy: Sailing on the rising tide, 23 Feb 2024
◆ Illumina Inc (ILMN US): Hold: Managing expectations or losing hegemony, 22 Feb 2024
◆ Coloplast (COLOB DC): Reduce: Priced for perfection, 22 Feb 2024
◆ Laboratory Corp of America (LH US): Hold: A step forward to 2026, but mind the
speedbumps, 20 Feb 2024
◆ Bayer AG (BAYN GR): Upgrade to Hold: Accounting & outstanding questions, 20 Feb 2024
◆ Zoetis Inc (ZTS US): Buy: Show me growth – at the bottom line, 20 Feb 2024
◆ IQVIA Holding Inc (IQV US): Buy: Recovery set-up in place, 19 Feb 2024
27 March 2024
Share price and multiple trends
Price momentum – BioPharma
12% Relative to Refinitiv Global Healthcare Index

Building Good
LivaNova
Momentum Momentum
8% BrightSpring Lonza (34%)

UCB (34%)
Amgen Teva
4% BMY Merck & Co
1 week return (%)
Bayer Astrazeneca Sanofi Merck KGaA GSK

Genmab Novartis Moderna Eli Lily
0% United Health
BioNTech SOBI Abbvie
Gilead JNJ
Biogen Pfizer
Zoetis Roche IQVIA Novo Nordisk
-4%
bluebird bio
-8%
Bad Losing
Momentum Momentum
-12%
-35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35%
3 month return (%)
Note: Priced at close of 25 March 2024

Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates
10
27 March 2024
Price momentum – MedTech
8% Relative to Refinitiv Global Healthcare Index

Building Good
Momentum GN Store Nord (16%) Momentum
Sartorius
4% Amplifon
Illumina
Biomerieux Stedim
1 week return (%)
Lab Corp
Align
FME Intuitive Surgical Coloplast
0% Siemens Healthineers Alcon
Eurofins ConvaTec
AMS Thermo Fisher GE Healthcare
Carl Zeiss
Fresenius Danaher Demant
Qiagen
Smith & Nephew
-4% Philips
Straumann
ONT (-11%) Sonova
Bad Losing
Momentum DiaSorin Momentum
-8%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
3 month return (%)
Source: Priced as of 25 March 2024. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates
11
27 March 2024
Price performance – BioPharma

1 Week 3 Months YTD
Stock Perf. (%) Stock Perf. (%) Stock Perf. (%)
Actinium 32.6% Actinium 50.8% Actinium 70.7%
LivaNova 10.7% Lonza 48.8% Lonza 48.7%
Lonza 10.0% UCB 48.7% UCB 46.3%
BrightSpring 8.8% Eli Lily 35.5% Teva 34.7%
UCB 7.3% Teva 34.2% Eli Lily 32.6%
Teva 5.6% Novo Nordisk 28.7% Novo Nordisk 28.1%
Amgen 3.7% GSK 16.9% GSK 16.9%
Merck & Co 3.2% Merck & Co 16.4% Abbvie 15.2%
Bayer 2.4% Abbvie 15.5% Merck & Co 14.9%
Merck KGaA 2.0% Merck KGaA 13.0% Merck KGaA 10.8%
GSK 2.0% Moderna 8.3% LivaNova 8.1%
Sanofi 1.9% LivaNova 7.9% IQVIA 7.6%
Eli Lily 1.4% IQVIA 7.7% Moderna 6.0%
BMY 1.3% SOBI 2.3% BMY 1.8%
Moderna 1.1% bluebird bio 1.9% Novartis 1.8%
Genmab 1.1% Novartis 1.9% SOBI 0.4%
Novartis 1.0% BMY 1.6% Sanofi (0.1%)
Astrazeneca 1.0% Sanofi 0.3% bluebird bio (0.4%)
SOBI 0.1% Astrazeneca (0.4%) JNJ (1.0%)
Abbvie 0.0% JNJ (0.6%) Astrazeneca (1.9%)
BioNTech 0.0% Amgen (1.1%) Amgen (2.5%)
United Health (0.2%) Genmab (2.9%) Genmab (4.2%)
Gilead (0.9%) Pfizer (3.4%) Pfizer (4.7%)
JNJ (1.0%) United Health (6.6%) United Health (7.7%)
Pfizer (1.0%) Roche (7.7%) Roche (7.8%)
Biogen (1.2%) Gilead (9.2%) Gilead (10.4%)
Zoetis (1.7%) BioNTech (11.2%) BioNTech (11.9%)
Roche (1.8%) Zoetis (14.2%) Zoetis (15.0%)
IQVIA (2.0%) Biogen (16.9%) Biogen (16.3%)
Novo Nordisk (2.2%) Bayer (17.9%) Bayer (20.2%)
bluebird bio (4.8%)
Note: Priced as of 25 March 2024. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates
Price performance – MedTech

1 Week 3 Months YTD
Stock Perf. (%) Stock Perf. (%) Stock Perf. (%)
GN Store Nord 16.6% Coloplast 19.8% Coloplast 20.8%
Amplifon 4.5% Carl Zeiss 17.8% Carl Zeiss 19.5%
Sartorius 4.0% ConvaTec 17.1% ConvaTec 17.6%
Illumina 3.0% Intuitive Surgical 16.8% Intuitive Surgical 16.8%
Biomerieux 2.6% Align 16.4% Align 16.5%
Stedim 2.4% Demant 16.2% GE Healthcare 16.2%
Lab Corp 2.0% GE Healthcare 15.1% Demant 15.2%
Align 1.0% Alcon 13.1% Alcon 13.9%
Intuitive Surgical 0.4% Stedim 11.8% Stedim 13.2%
FME 0.2% Sartorius 10.4% Sartorius 11.2%
Coloplast 0.2% Thermo Fisher 8.3% GN Store Nord 8.4%
Eurofins (0.1%) Danaher 7.1% Thermo Fisher 8.1%
ConvaTec (0.3%) GN Store Nord 5.7% Danaher 7.1%
Alcon (0.4%) Amplifon 5.1% Amplifon 5.8%
Siemens Healthineers (0.4%) Siemens Healthineers 4.0% Siemens Healthineers 5.1%
AMS (0.6%) Straumann 1.5% Straumann 2.2%
GE Healthcare (0.8%) Qiagen 1.4% Qiagen 1.1%
Thermo Fisher (1.1%) Biomerieux (0.4%) Biomerieux 0.0%
Danaher (1.5%) Illumina (4.7%) Illumina (3.7%)
Demant (1.5%) Lab Corp (5.1%) Eurofins (5.2%)
Carl Zeiss (1.6%) Smith & Nephew (5.2%) Smith & Nephew (5.6%)
Qiagen (1.8%) Eurofins (5.3%) DiaSorin (5.9%)
Fresenius (2.5%) DiaSorin (6.2%) Lab Corp (6.0%)
Smith & Nephew (3.2%) Sonova (7.3%) Sonova (6.4%)
Philips (3.5%) FME (8.1%) FME (7.9%)
Straumann (3.6%) AMS (12.3%) AMS (10.4%)
Sonova (4.2%) Philips (12.3%) Fresenius (12.6%)
DiaSorin (6.2%) Fresenius (14.2%) Philips (12.6%)
ONT (10.6%) ONT (39.0%) ONT (41.1%)
Note: Priced as of 25 March 2024. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates
12
Weekly performance split – BioPharma
35.0%
25.0%
15.0%
5.0%
(5.0%)
(15.0%)
Sanofi
Astrazeneca
Gilead
Roche
LivaNova
Lonza
Amgen
Novartis
UCB
Bayer
GSK
BioNTech
Merck KGaA
Genmab
Biogen
BrightSpring
Actinium
IQVIA
SOBI
Novo Nordisk
Merck & Co
Eli Lily
Teva
Pfizer
JNJ
Zoetis
Abbvie
United Health
BMY
bluebird bio
∆ FY24 EPS (% ) ∆ FY24 P/E (% ) ∆ Price (% )
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC

27 March 2024
13
14
Weekly performance split – MedTech
16.0%
12.0%
8.0%
4.0%
0.0%
(4.0%)
(8.0%)
(12.0%)
Coloplast
Smith & Nephew

Philips
Intuitive Surgical
Fresenius
Illumina
DiaSorin
Eurofins
GE Healthcare
FME
Stedim
Lab Corp
Sonova
Align
Sartorius
Biomerieux
Alcon
Qiagen
Demant
AMS
Danaher
ONT
GN Store Nord
ConvaTec
Amplifon
Straumann
Thermo Fisher
Siemens Healthineers
Carl Zeiss
∆ FY24 EPS (% ) ∆ FY24 P/E (% ) ∆ Price (% )
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC

27 March 2024
27 March 2024
Sector multiples and valuation comparisons
Although defensive Biopharma multiples remain elevated, the market seems to be increasingly
nervous regarding MedTech names. The potential cyclicality of MedTech stocks is under closer
scrutiny. Investors seem keen to understand which names could be resilient relative to the
sector and in absolute terms. The multiples are based on Refinitiv Datastream consensus.
Sector multiple – Biopharma Risk premium – Biopharma
20.0x 8.0%
7.0%
18.0x
6.0%
5.0%
16.0x
4.0%
14.0x 3.0%
2.0%
12.0x
1.0%
0.0%
10.0x
BioPharma coverage earnings Yield - US 10 year

Sector median NTM P/E
treasury yield
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC
Sector multiple – MedTech Risk premium – MedTech
35.0x 5.0%
30.0x 4.0%
25.0x 3.0%
20.0x 2.0%
1.0%
15.0x
0.0%
10.0x
MedTech coverage earnings Yield - US 10 year

Sector median NTM P/E
treasury yield
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC
The multiples for Biopharma names are broadly consistent with growth expectations as well as
patent cliffs. In contrast, the market seems to have less confidence in the earnings growth rate
estimates for the MedTech sector.
15
27 March 2024
EPS growth vs PE multiples – Biopharma
60.0x LLY.N
50.0x
LONN.S
40.0x
NOVOb.CO
2024e P/E (x)
ZTS.N
30.0x
GMAB.CO UCB.BR
IQV.N SOBIV.ST
MRCG.DE LIVN.N
20.0x
AMGN.OQ ABBV.N BTSG.O
JNJ.N AZN.L MRK.N
ROG.S
PFE.NBIIB.OQ
10.0x GILD.N NOVN.S SASY.PA
GSK.L
BMY.N
TEVA.K
BAYGn.DE
0.0x
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
2024e-27e EPS CAGR (%)
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
PE multiples vs EPS growth – MedTech
70.0x
SATG_p.DE
ISRG.O
60.0x
STDM.PA
50.0x
STMN.S
AFXG.DE
2024e P/E (x)
40.0x COLOb.CO
ALCC.S AMPF.MI
30.0x SOON.S
TMO.N DHR.N
ALGN.OQ DEMANT.CO GN.CO
QIA.DE EUFI.PA SHLG.DE
20.0x CTEC.L
AMSU.L GEHC.N
PHG.AS
LH.N SN.L
10.0x FMEG.DE
FREG.DE
0.0x
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
2024e-27e EPS CAGR (%)
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
16
Sector multiples
Revenue EBITA EPS
Mkt cap Share Target CAGR CAGR CAGR ______ EV/sales _______ ____ EV/EBITDA ______ _____ EV/EBITA ______ _________ PE _________ Div yld
Company Ticker Rating CCY (USDbn) price price 23-25e 23-25e 23-25e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2024e
BioPharma
Abbvie Inc ABBV US Hold USD 316 178.53 161.00 4% 6% 8% 6.7x 6.4x 6.2x 14x 13x 13x 15x 13x 13x 16x 14x 14x 7.1%
Amgen Inc AMGN US Buy USD 150 280.82 322.00 4% 5% 5% 5.8x 5.6x 5.3x 12x 12x 11x 13x 12x 12x 14x 13x 12x 3.7%
AstraZeneca AZN LN Buy GBP 204 10,394.00 12,150.00 8% 11% 13% 4.4x 4.1x 3.8x 12x 10x 9x 13x 11x 10x 15x 13x 12x 0.0%
Bayer AG BAYN GR Hold EUR 29 26.84 25.00 1% 1% 6% 1.6x 1.6x 1.6x 7x 7x 7x 8x 8x 8x 5x 4x 4x 0.4%
Biogen Inc BIIB US Buy USD 31 216.69 339.00 5% 12% 11% 3.8x 3.6x 3.5x 12x 10x 9x 13x 11x 10x 13x 12x 11x 0.0%
Bristol-Myers Squibb BMY US Hold USD 106 52.25 50.00 1% 7% 7% 2.9x 2.8x 2.8x 8x 7x 7x 8x 7x 7x 7x 7x 6x 5.5%
Eli Lilly & Co LLY US Buy USD 735 773.14 880.00 25% 37% 37% 17.8x 13.5x 11.5x 50x 34x 27x 54x 36x 29x 61x 40x 32x 1.2%
GSK GSK LN Reduce GBP 89 1,694.60 1,200.00 5% 6% 6% 2.6x 2.5x 2.4x 8x 7x NM 9x 8x 8x 10x 10x NM 0.0%
Gilead Sciences Inc GILD US Reduce USD 90 72.58 69.00 2% 4% 6% 3.7x 3.7x 3.6x 8x 8x 8x 9x 9x 8x 11x 10x 9x 5.3%
Johnson & Johnson JNJ US Hold USD 374 155.22 169.00 2% 4% 5% 4.1x 4.0x 3.9x 11x 11x 10x 12x 12x 12x 14x 14x 13x 3.7%
LivaNova Plc LIVN US Hold USD 2.9 54.42 55.00 5% 9% 10% 2.6x 2.4x 2.3x 16x 15x 14x 14x 13x 12x 18x 17x 15x 0.0%
Lonza LONN SW Buy CHF 44 526.00 540.00 10% 20% 22% 6.2x 5.7x 5.1x 23x 20x 17x 36x 30x 25x 44x 36x 29x 0.9%
Merck & Co Inc MRK US Hold USD 317 125.31 118.00 6% 12% 13% 5.3x 5.0x 4.7x 12x 11x 10x 13x 11x 10x 15x 13x 12x 3.5%
Merck KGaA MRK GR Buy EUR 75 159.60 170.00 4% 8% 9% 3.4x 3.3x 3.2x 12x 11x 10x 15x 13x 13x 18x 16x 15x 2.0%
Novartis AG NOVN SW Hold CHF 211 86.41 90.00 3% 7% 4% 4.5x 4.4x 4.2x 11x 11x 10x 16x 15x 14x 19x 17x 16x 4.5%
Novo Nordisk NOVOB DC Buy DKK 586 894.50 960.00 23% 25% 25% 14.1x 11.1x 9.3x 29x 23x 19x 32x 24x 20x 39x 30x 25x 1.7%
Pfizer Inc PFE US Buy USD 155 27.43 38.00 2% 5% 16% 3.6x 3.5x 3.5x 9x 9x 9x 12x 12x 11x 13x 10x 10x 6.2%
Roche Holding AG ROG SW Buy CHF 205 225.50 290.00 5% 6% 7% 3.4x 3.1x 3.0x 9x 8x NM 10x 9x 9x 11x 10x NM 4.2%
Sanofi SA SAN FP Buy EUR 123 89.65 110.00 6% 11% 12% 2.4x 2.3x 2.1x 8x 7x 7x 9x 8x 8x 11x 10x 9x 5.7%
Teva Pharmaceutical TEVA US Buy USD 15 14.06 16.00 2% 5% 11% 1.9x 1.9x 1.9x 7x 6x 6x 7x 7x 6x 6x 5x 5x 0.0%
Zoetis Inc ZTS US Buy USD 77 167.81 230.00 8% 12% 13% 8.8x 8.2x 7.6x 21x 19x 17x 24x 21x 19x 29x 25x 23x 1.2%
Healthcare
BrightSpring Health BTSG US Buy USD 1.7 9.61 13.00 7% 12% 41% 0.4x 0.4x 0.4x 7x 7x 6x 11x 10x 9x 16x 11x 8x 0.0%
IQVIA Holding Inc IQV US Buy USD 45 248.88 280.00 8% 9% 16% 3.7x 3.4x 3.1x 15x 14x 13x 26x 25x 22x 22x 19x 17x 0.0%
United Health Group Inc UNH US Reduce USD 448 485.88 470.00 8% 9% 12% 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x 11x 10x 10x 13x 12x 11x 18x 16x 14x 1.8%
BioTech
Actinium Pharmaceuticals ATNM US Buy USD 0.2 8.67 9.80 897% NM NM 165.2x 3.2x 1.7x NM NM 9x NM NM 9x NM NM 12x 0.0%
Bluebird Bio Inc BLUE US Reduce USD 0.3 1.36 1.02 34% NM NM 0.3x 0.2x 0.2x NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 0.0%
BioNTech BNTX US Hold USD 22 93.00 90.00 4% NM NM 2.0x 1.9x 1.8x NM 39x 24x NM 126x 47x NM 249x 146x 0.0%
Genmab A/S GMAB DC Buy DKK 20 2,065.00 3,190.00 14% 37% 35% 5.5x 4.8x 4.3x 15x 11x 8x 16x 12x 8x 22x 17x 12x 0.0%
Moderna MRNA US Reduce USD 42 105.43 86.00 8% NM NM 8.8x 8.4x 7.5x NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 0.0%
SOBI SOBI SS Buy SEK 9 268.20 330.00 11% 24% 37% 4.5x 4.0x 3.6x 12x 10x 8x 13x 10x 8x 22x 15x 12x 0.0%
UCB UCB BB Buy EUR 24 115.40 125.00 11% 64% 49% 4.3x 3.9x 3.5x 19x 13x 10x 40x 20x 15x 29x 16x 13x 3.1%
Audiology
Amplifon AMP IM Buy EUR 8.1 33.15 35.00 7% 13% 14% 3.5x 3.2x 3.0x 14x 13x 12x 27x 23x 21x 32x 27x 24x 1.3%
Demant DEMANT DC Reduce DKK 11 341.00 240.00 6% 2% 6% 3.8x 3.5x 3.4x 16x 15x 15x 19x 18x 19x 26x 24x 23x 0.0%
GN Store Nord GN DC Buy DKK 4.1 186.20 210.00 8% 24% 25% 2.0x 1.8x 1.7x 12x 10x NM 20x 15x 13x 17x 14x NM 0.9%
Sonova SOON SW Buy CHF 17 256.90 320.00 6% 8% 6% 4.5x 4.2x 4.0x 16x 15x 14x 22x 20x 19x 23x 22x 20x 1.8%
MedTech
Alcon ALC SW Buy CHF 41.59 7,476.00 87.00 6% 16% 12% 4.5x 4.2x 4.0x 17x 15x 14x 32x 27x 24x 28x 24x 22x 0.4%
AMS AMS LN Buy GBP 0.5 186.00 260.00 5% 7% 6% 2.5x 2.4x 2.3x 11x 10x 9x 13x 12x 11x 17x 16x 15x 0.0%
Align Technology Inc ALGN US Buy USD 24 319.28 350.00 14% 17% 19% 5.6x 4.9x 4.3x 27x 23x 20x 33x 28x 24x 34x 28x 24x 0.0%
Carl Zeiss Meditec AFX GY Hold EUR 11 118.10 120.00 10% 25% 23% 4.3x 3.8x 3.6x 21x 16x 14x 26x 19x 17x 40x 33x 27x 1.2%
Coloplast COLOB DC Reduce DKK 31 932.20 700.00 7% 12% 15% 8.5x 7.9x 7.3x 27x 25x 22x 30x 28x 24x 37x 32x 28x 2.4%
ConvaTec Group CTEC LN Hold GBP 7.4 287.20 220.00 5% 28% 9% 3.8x 3.6x 3.4x 15x 14x 13x 26x 23x 16x 25x 23x 21x 0.0%
Danaher Corporation DHR US Hold USD 183 247.80 250.00 8% 12% 12% 7.8x 7.1x 6.7x 25x 22x 20x 27x 24x 22x 32x 28x 26x 0.5%

Fresenius FRE GR Hold EUR 18 24.54 31.00 NM NM NM 1.5x 1.4x NM 9x 9x NM 14x 13x NM 7x 7x NM 4.0%
Fresenius Medical Care FME GR Hold EUR 11 34.97 38.00 2% 14% 18% 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x 6x 6x 5x 12x 11x 10x 13x 11x 9x 4.6%
GE Healthcare GEHC US Buy USD 40 89.87 100.00 5% 8% 12% 2.2x 2.1x 2.0x 12x 12x 11x 15x 14x 13x 20x 18x 16x 0.1%
Intuitive Surgical Inc ISRG US Buy USD 139 394.07 455.00 18% 24% 16% 16.8x 14.3x 12.1x 57x 47x 38x 72x 58x 47x 72x 62x 54x 0.0%
Philips PHIA NA Reduce EUR 18 18.42 18.00 5% 29% 12% 1.2x 1.1x 1.1x 9x 8x 7x 21x 14x 12x 14x 12x 11x 3.8%
Sartorius SRT3 GY Buy EUR 26 370.40 390.00 11% 36% 28% 7.8x 7.0x 6.3x 26x 22x 19x 43x 28x 23x 70x 51x 43x 0.3%
Sartorius Stedim Biotech DIM FP Buy EUR 29 271.20 360.00 11% 20% 25% 9.8x 8.7x 7.9x 32x 28x 24x 70x 59x 49x 60x 47x 38x 0.2%
Smith & Nephew SN/ LN Buy GBP 11 1,018.50 1,290.00 5% 19% 10% 2.4x 2.3x 2.2x 9x 9x 8x 19x 14x 13x 15x 13x 12x 0.0%
Straumann STMN SW Reduce CHF 25 138.55 115.00 12% 17% 20% 8.7x 7.7x 6.9x 29x 24x 21x 36x 30x 26x 45x 37x 32x 0.6%
Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO US Buy USD 219 573.56 630.00 8% 13% 14% 5.6x 5.2x 4.8x 18x 16x 15x 25x 22x 19x 26x 23x 20x 0.3%
Diagnostics
Biomerieux BIM FP Buy EUR 13 100.60 110.00 7% 8% 7% 2.9x 2.7x 2.6x 14x 13x 12x 19x 17x 16x 21x 20x 19x 1.0%
DiaSorin DIA IM Buy EUR 5.3 87.70 115.00 8% 14% 13% 4.6x 4.3x 4.0x 14x 13x 12x 22x 19x 17x 24x 21x 19x 1.2%
27 March 2024
Eurofins Scientific ERF FP Hold EUR 12 55.92 60.00 7% 18% 18% 2.0x 1.9x 1.7x 10x 9x 8x 17x 14x 12x 17x 15x 12x 1.8%
Illumina Inc ILMN US Hold USD 21 134.06 140.00 11% NM 90% 4.6x 4.1x 3.7x 46x 33x 21x NM 52x 29x 148x 78x 41x 0.0%
Laboratory Corp of America LH US Hold USD 18 213.75 225.00 3% 5% 10% 1.7x 1.7x 1.6x 10x 10x 9x 14x 13x 13x 14x 13x 12x 0.0%
Oxford Nanoporetech ONT LN Buy GBP 1.3 122.70 280.00 26% NM NM 4.2x 3.4x 2.7x NM NM 547x NM NM NM NM NM NM 0.0%
Qiagen QIA GR Buy EUR 9 39.88 56.00 NM NM NM 4.3x 4.0x NM 18x 15x NM 19x 15x NM 21x 19x NM 0.0%
17
Siemens Healthineers AG SHL GR Buy EUR 68 55.26 60.00 7% 24% 17% 3.2x 3.0x 2.9x 16x 13x 11x 25x 19x 16x 25x 21x 18x 2.3%
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates (priced at close of 18 March 2024)
18
Patent expiries and exposure, by company

2023 USDm % of revenues2024 USDm 2025 USDm 2026 USDm 2027 USDm 2028 USDm 2029 USDm 2030 USDm 2031 USDm 2032 USDm 2033 USDm 2034 USDm 2035 USDm
Humira 21.2bn 40% Creon 1.5bn 2% Ubrelvy 1.2bn 2% Mavyret 1.5bn 2% Rinvoq 9.2bn 14%
AbbVie
Venclexta 3.1bn 5% Imbruvica 4.6bn 7% Skyrizi 16.5bn 26%
Roxadusta
Byetta 0.1bn 0% Brilinta 1.7bn 3% Koselugo 0.6bn 1% Fasenra 2.8bn 4% Strensiq 1.6bn 3% Bevespi Aerosphere 0.1bn 0% Bydureon 0.4bn 1% Andexxa 0.6bn 1% Enhertu 1.9bn 3% 0.7bn 1% Beyfortus 0.0bn 0%
t
Breztri/
Daliresp/ Daxas 0.2bn 1% Farxiga 7.9bn 16% Lynparza 6.7bn 11% 1.3bn 2% Imfinzi 5.9bn 10% Calquence 7.1bn 12% Saphnelo 2.2bn 4% Ultomiris 6.8bn 11%
TrixeoAerosphere
FluenzTetra/
Iressa 0.1bn 0% 0.2bn 0% Tezspire 0.0bn 0% Orpathys 0.2bn 0% Imjudo 0.0bn 0% Lokelma 1.0bn 2%
AstraZeneca FluMistQuadrivalent (V)
Komboglyze 0.0bn 0% Soliris 4.8bn 9% Kanuma 0.3bn 1% Tagrisso 10.9bn 18%
Vaxzevria
Onglyza 0.3bn 1% Xigduo 0.0bn 0% 2.3bn 4%
(V)
Synagis 0.7bn 2%
Zoladex 1.2bn 3%
Xarelto 4.9bn 9% Eylea 4.8bn 9% Adempas 0.8bn 1% Kerendia 0.1bn 0% Vitrakvi 0.6bn 1% Nubeqa 1.9bn 3% Stivarga 0.9bn 1% Verquvo 1.0bn 2%
Bayer
Jivi 0.0bn 0% Mirena 1.4bn 2%
Sprycel 2.2bn 5% Yervoy 2.1bn 5% Inrebic 0.1bn 0% Eliquis 14.6bn 34% Empliciti 0.3bn 1% Onureg 0.2bn 1% Reblozyl 2.5bn 7% Breyanzi 0.9bn 2% Camzyos 3.6bn 10%
Bristol Myers Orencia 3.9bn 8% Opdivo 12.2bn 29% Zeposia 1.0bn 3% Sotyktu 3.6bn 10% Opdualag 2.5bn 7%
Pomalyst/
3.5bn 7%
Imnovid
Cyramza 1.0bn 2% Trulicity 8,294 13% Jardiance 2.9bn 4% Taltz 3.6bn 4% Verzenio 7.7bn 10% Olumiant 0.8bn 1% Emgality 1.0bn 1%
Eli Lilly
Shingrix
Benlysta 2.0bn 5% Apretude 0.8bn 2% Anoro Ellipta 0.7bn 2% Cervarix (V) 0.2bn 0% 6.7bn 17% Zejula 0.9bn 2% Blenrep 0.2bn 1% Jemperli 0.2bn 1%
(V)
Menveo (V) 0.5bn 1% Cabenuva 1.9bn 4% Arnuity Ellipta 0.1bn 0%
Rukobia 0.3bn 1% Bexsero (V) 1.1bn 2%
Dovato 3.2bn 7%
Incruse Ellipta 0.3bn 1%
GSK Juluca 1.0bn 2%
Nucala 2.2bn 5%
Relvar/ Breo
1.5bn 3%
Ellipta
Tivicay 1.8bn 4%
Trelegy Ellipta 3.5bn 8%
Triumeq 2.3bn 5%
Imbruvica
Invokana 0.4bn 0% Stelara 10.0bn 10% Opsumit 1.9bn 2% Uptravi 1.7bn 2% Tremfya 6.3bn 6% 3.8bn 3% Erleada 4.2bn 4%
(J&J)
Johnson & Johnson Xarelto 2.6bn 3% Darzalex 16.1bn 15%
Simponi 2.2bn 2%
Prezista 1.9bn 2%
Isentress 0.6bn 1% Lenvima 1.1bn 2% Adempas 0.2bn 0% Gardasil (V) 0.0bn 0% Belsomra 0.3bn 0% Verquvo 0.0bn 0% Delstrigo 0.0bn 0% Recarbrio 0.0bn 0% Welireg 0.0bn 0%
Gardasil9
Simponi 0.7bn 1% Bridion 1.8bn 2% 13.4bn 18% Prevymis 1.2bn 2% Pifeltro 0.0bn 0%
Merck & Co (V)
Janumet 1.7bn 2% Keytruda 33.8bn 45%
Janumet XR 0.0bn 0% Lynparza 1.9bn 3%
Januvia 2.8bn 4% Zerbaxa 0.4bn 1%
Promacta/
2.4bn 4% Ilaris 1.4bn 3% Entresto 6.9bn 12% Mayzent 0.6bn 1% Aimovig 0.3bn 1% Mekinist 2.0bn 3% Beovu 0.2bn 0% Scemblix 1.6bn 3% Leqvio 3.4bn 6%
Revolade
Novartis
Votrient 0.5bn 1% Tasigna 1.9bn 3% Lutathera 0.7bn 1% Cosentyx 5.8bn 9% Tafinlar 0.0bn 0% Kesimpta 5.1bn 8% Zolgensma 1.8bn 3% Pluvicto 4.4bn 7%
Xolair 1.4bn 2% Piqray 0.7bn 1% Kisqali 5.1bn 8%
Zegalogu
Levemir 0.7bn 2% Saxenda 1.6bn 4% Refixia 0.0bn 0% Ryzodeg 0.8bn 1% Fiasp 0.4bn 1% Ozempic 20.5bn 32% Sogroya 0.0bn 0% 0.0bn 0%
e
Novo Nordisk NovoSeven 2.8bn 9% Victoza 1.8bn 5% Tresiba 1.4bn 2% Rybelsus 7.0bn 11%
Xultophy 0.6bn 1% Wegovy 15.2bn 24%

Esperoct 0.0bn 0%
Inlyta 1.2bn 2% Eucrisa 0.0bn 0% Ibrance 5,120 8% Vyndaqel 3.5bn 5% Xalkori 0.6bn 1% Besponsa 0.0bn 0% Mektovi 0.2bn 0% Lorbrena 1.9bn 3%
Pfizer Xeljanz 1.8bn 3% Prevnar 13 (V) 6.9bn 10% Xtandi 1,456 2% Eliquis 7.9bn 12% Braftovi 0.2bn 0% Oxbryta 0.0bn 0%
Prevnar 20
Nurtec ODT 3.2bn 5% 0.0bn 0%
(V)
Actemra 3.0bn 4% Perjeta 4.6bn 7% Cotelic 0.0bn 0% Erivedge 0.3bn 0% Ocrevus 9.3bn 11% Alecensa 2.3bn 3% Polivy 2.1bn 3% Evrysdi 3.7bn 5%
Roche Activase 1.3bn 2% Xolair 2.5bn 4% Kadcyla 2.3bn 3% Tecentriq 7.0bn 9% Rozlytrek 0.0bn 0% Hemlibra 7.1bn 9% Venclexta 0.0bn 0% Gazyva 1.1bn 1%
Pulmozyme 0.6bn 1%
Aubagio 2.2bn 5% Alprolix 0.6bn 1% Dupixent 20.3bn 33%

Cerezyme 0.8bn 2% Eloctate 0.6bn 1% Kevzara 0.4bn 1%
Sanofi Fabrazyme 1.1bn 2% Sarclisa 1.0bn 2% Toujeo 1.3bn 2%

Jevtana 0.4bn 1%
Lumizyme/
1.0bn 2%
Myozyme
TOTAL 20 40.7bn 15 30.8bn 17 45.9bn 17 28.4bn 15 34,248 22 110.6bn 19 50.4bn 15 24.1bn 21 64.0bn 17 76.6bn 14 44.8bn 7 14.8bn 6 11.6bn
27 March 2024
Notes: GSK’s Cabenuva has additional exclusivity after patent expiry until 2031; the company has also flagged that drug-device combinations or vaccines have a different fade profile. We apply a consistent methodology across companies and can provide these details on request.
Source: Company data, GlobalData, Bloomberg, Visible Alpha, HSBC
2023 USDm
% of revenues 2024 USDm 2025 USDm 2026 USDm 2027 USDm 2028 USDm 2029 USDm 2030 USDm 2031 USDm 2032 USDm 2033 USDm 2034 USDm 2035 USDm
Aranesp 1.4bn 5% Prolia 4.1bn 13% Blincyto 0.9bn 3% Nplate 1.6bn 5% Enbrel 4.1bn 14% Evenity 2.7bn 9% Aimovig 0.7bn 2%
Amgen Xgeva 2.2bn Kyprolis 1.6bn 5% Otezla 2.6bn 9% Repatha 2.7bn 9% Parsabiv 1.1bn 4%
Tezspire
3.4bn 11% Tavneos 1.0bn 3%
(Amgen)
Tysabri 2.0bn 22% Plegridy 0.3bn 3% Spinraza 1.8bn 16% Aduhelm 0.0bn 0% Leqembi 2.2bn 20%
Biogen
Vumerity 0.9bn 8%
Complera/
0.2bn 1% Tecartus 0.7bn 2% Genvoya 2.4bn 8% Harvoni 0.1bn 0% Descovy 2.1bn 7% Odefsey 1.5bn 5% Biktarvy 13.9bn 44% Vosevi 0.2bn 1% Veklury 3.9bn 12%
Eviplera
Gilead Zydelig 0.0bn 0% Stribild 0.1bn 0% Hepcludex 0.0bn 0% Vemlidy 0.8bn 3% Trodelvy 3.6bn 11% Epclusa 1.5bn 5%
Yescarta 2.6bn 8%
Eylea Dupixent
6.3bn 49% Praluent 0.2bn 1% 0.0bn 0% Libtayo 0.4bn 2%
(Regeneron) (Regeneron)
Regeneron
Kevzara
0.0bn 0%
(Regeneron)
Kalydeco 0.6bn 4% Orkambi 0.5bn 3%

Vertex
Symdeko 0.2bn 1%
TOTAL 1 6.3bn 2 3.5bn 4 6.5bn 1 0.3bn 5 3,955 3 7.6bn 5 9.5bn 4 2.4bn 8 10.4bn 3 5.7bn 4 16.4bn 1 0.2bn 3 6.5bn
Source: Company data, GlobalData, Bloomberg, Visible Alpha, HSBC

27 March 2024
19
20
Catalysts calendar & NPV exposure (USDm)
Contribution
to total
Highest Peak company rNPV/ rNPV/
Expected development Peak Launch sales growth rNPV market peak
Company Ticker Product Name Event Date Event Type stage LOA sales year year (24e-27e) range cap sales
AbbVie ABBV US navitoclax (ABT-263, RG7433) Additional follow-up data from Phase III TRANSFORM-1 4Q 2023 Data Release Phase III 37% 0.7bn 2024 2033 3% 1.5 - 0% - 2.2x -
trial in combination with Jakafi in first-line myelofibrosis, 3.2bn 1% 2.6x
following top-line results in July 2023
AbbVie ABBV US navitoclax (ABT-263, RG7433) Data from Phase III TRANSFORM-2 trial in combination 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 0.7bn 2024 2033 3% 1.5 - 0% - 2.2x -
with Jakafi in second-line myelofibrosis 3.2bn 1% 2.6x
AbbVie ABBV US navitoclax (ABT-263, RG7433) Potential FDA approval (company-expected timeline) in 2024 PDUFA Phase III 37% 0.7bn 2024 2033 3% 1.5 - 0% - 2.2x -
first-line myelofibrosis 3.2bn 1% 2.6x
AbbVie / ABBV US / risankizumab (Skyrizi) Jun 25 PDUFA Marketed 51% 21.4bn 2019 2032 55% NM NM 4.8x -
Boehringer BING GR 2024 5.1x
Ingelheim BI-estimated PDUFA date of sBLA in ulcerative colitis
AbbVie / Roche ABBV US / venetoclax (Venclexta, Venclyxto, Data from Phase III CristaLLo trial in combination with >2023 Data Release Marketed 37% 3.3bn 2016 2030 5% NM NM 5.4x -
ROG SW ABT-199, RG7601, GDC-0199) Gazyva in front-line fit chronic lymphocytic leukemia 5.7x
(CLL), with primary endpoint of MRD negativity rate in
peripheral blood at 15 months
Aldeyra / Ligand ALDX US / reproxalap (ADX-102) eye drop 1H 2024 Data Release Phase III 42% 0.3bn 2024 2034 92% NM NM 2.2x -
Pharma / AbbVie LGND US Data from new crossover dry eye disease chamber trial-- 2.6x
/ ABBV US to support NDA resubmission
Amgen AMGN US tarlatamab (AMG 757) Potential FDA approval under RTOR (BI-estimated Spring 2024 PDUFA Phase III 37% 2.1bn 2024 2035 20% 4.5 - 3% - 2.1x -
timeline) of BLA in small cell lung cancer with disease 7.8bn 5% 2.6x
progression on or after platinum-based chemotherapy
Amgen AMGN US tarlatamab (AMG 757) PDUFA date of BLA in small cell lung cancer with Jun 12 PDUFA Phase III 37% 2.1bn 2024 2035 20% 4.5 - 3% - 2.1x -
disease progression on or after platinum-based 2024 7.8bn 5% 2.6x
chemotherapy--if not approved earlier under RTOR in
spring 2024
Amgen / AMGN US Tezspire (tezepelumab) Data of Phase III WAYPOINT trial in chronic 1H 2024 Data Release Marketed 58% 2.4bn 2022 2033 41% 8.6 - 6% - 3.5x -
AstraZeneca / AZN LN rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps 14.1bn 10% 3.5x
Arvinas Inc / ARVN US vepdegestrant (ARV-471) Data of Phase III VERITAC-2 trial as monotherapy in 2H 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 1.9bn 2024 2035 81% 4.1 - 131% - 2.2x -
Pfizer / PFE US second-line metastatic ER-positive, HER2-negative 12.1bn 389% 2.6x
breast cancer
AstraZeneca / AZN LN / acalabrutinib (Calquence) Data of Phase III ESCALADE trial in combination with R- >2023 Data Release Marketed 37% 4.6bn 2017 10% 25.4 - 12% - 5.5x -
Acerta Pharma 1291693D CHOP in first-line non-GCB diffuse large B-cell 36.6bn 18% 5.6x

NA lymphoma (DLBCL)
AstraZeneca / AZN LN / acalabrutinib (Calquence) Data of Phase III trial AMPLIFY (ACE CL-311) in >2023 Data Release Marketed 37% 4.6bn 2017 10% 25.4 - 12% - 5.5x -
Acerta Pharma 1291693D combination with Venclexta with or without Gazyva in 36.6bn 18% 5.6x
NA first-line chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) without
deletion 17p or TP53 mutation
AstraZeneca AZN LN ALXN1210 (Ultomiris, ravulizumab) >2023 Data Release Marketed 100% 6.3bn 2018 2030 13% 32.8 - 16% - 5.2x -
Data from Phase II/III trial in dermatomyositis 44.7bn 22% 5.6x
AstraZeneca AZN LN ALXN1210 (Ultomiris, ravulizumab) Potential FDA approval (company-expected timeline) in >2023 PDUFA Marketed 100% 6.3bn 2018 2030 13% 32.8 - 16% - 5.2x -
hematopoietic stem cell transplant-associated thrombotic 44.7bn 22% 5.6x
microangiopathy (HSCT-TMA)
27 March 2024
AstraZeneca AZN LN anselamimab (CAEL-101) Data of Phase III CARES trials in light chain (AL) 2024 Data Release Phase III 100% 0.4bn 2024 2029 1% 0.9 - 0% - 2.1x -
amyloidosis, one in Mayo stage IIIa disease, and one in 1.8bn 1% 2.5x
Mayo stage IIIb
AstraZeneca / AZN LN / benralizumab (Fasenra, MEDI-563) Data from Phase III ORCHID trial in eosinophilic nasal >2023 Data Release Marketed 58% 2.2bn 2017 2029 3% 12.3 - 6% - 5.6x -
Kyowa Kirin 4151 JP polyposis 16.7bn 8% 5.8x
Contribution
to total
AstraZeneca / AZN LN / benralizumab (Fasenra, MEDI-563) Data of additional Phase III trial RESOLUTE in moderate >2023 Data Release Marketed 58% 2.2bn 2017 2029 3% 12.3 - 6% - 5.6x -
Kyowa Kirin 4151 JP to very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 16.7bn 8% 5.8x
(COPD) with history of frequent exacerbations and
elevated eosinophils
AstraZeneca AZN LN Breztri (Trixeo, PT010, Data of Phase III trial LOGOS in asthma >2023 Data Release Marketed 48% 1.6bn 2011 5% 6.7 - 3% - 4.1x -
budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol) 12.6bn 6% 3.8x
AstraZeneca AZN LN Breztri (Trixeo, PT010, Data of Phase III trial KALOS in asthma >2023 Data Release Marketed 48% 1.6bn 2011 5% 6.7 - 3% - 4.1x -
budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol) 12.6bn 6% 3.8x
AstraZeneca AZN LN danicopan (ACH-4471), oral Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) as add- Jan-Apr Regulatory Phase III 46% 0.4bn 2024 2031 2% 0.8 - 0% - 2.1x -
on to Soliris or Ultomiris in paroxysmal nocturnal 2024 Action 2.0bn 1% 2.5x
hemoglobinuria (PNH) patients with extravascular
hemolysis (EVH)
AstraZeneca AZN LN danicopan (ACH-4471), oral BI-estimated PDUFA date of NDA as add-on to Soliris or 1Q 2024 PDUFA Phase III 46% 0.4bn 2024 2031 2% 0.8 - 0% - 2.1x -
Ultomiris in paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) 2.0bn 1% 2.5x
patients with extravascular hemolysis (EVH)
AstraZeneca AZN LN durvalumab (Imfinzi, MEDI4736) Data from Phase III KUNLUN trial in combination with >2023 Data Release Marketed 37% 7.1bn 2017 2030 16% 31.5 - 15% - 4.4x -
chemoradiation in locally advanced, unresectable 42.3bn 20% 4.5x
esophageal squamous cell carcinoma
AstraZeneca AZN LN durvalumab (Imfinzi, MEDI4736) Data of Phase III PACIFIC-4 trial following stereotactic >2023 Data Release Marketed 37% 7.1bn 2017 2030 16% 31.5 - 15% - 4.4x -
body radiation in unresectable stage I-II non-small cell 42.3bn 20% 4.5x
lung cancer
AstraZeneca AZN LN durvalumab (Imfinzi, MEDI4736) Data of Phase III POTOMAC trial in combination with >2023 Data Release Marketed 37% 7.1bn 2017 2030 16% 31.5 - 15% - 4.4x -
BCG in first-line non-metastatic non-muscle invasive 42.3bn 20% 4.5x
bladder cancer
AstraZeneca AZN LN durvalumab (Imfinzi, MEDI4736) DFS data from registrational Phase III trial ADJUVANT >2023 Data Release Marketed 37% 7.1bn 2017 2030 16% 31.5 - 15% - 4.4x -
(BR.31) in adjuvant non-small cell lung cancer, including 42.3bn 20% 4.5x
EGFR/ALK+ patients--analysis plan being reviewed as of
July 2020 following positive Tagrisso ADAURA trial
AstraZeneca AZN LN durvalumab (Imfinzi, MEDI4736) BI-estimated PDUFA date of sBLA in combination with 2Q 2024 PDUFA Marketed 37% 7.1bn 2017 2030 16% 31.5 - 15% - 4.4x -
chemo in neoadjuvant non-small cell lung cancer and as 42.3bn 20% 4.5x
adjuvant monotherapy, based on Phase III AEGEAN trial

Daiichi Sankyo / 4568 JP / Enhertu (trastuzumab deruxtecan, DS- Data of Phase III trial DESTINY-Breast06 in post 1Q 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 5.4bn 2020 2030 20% 21.1 - 10% - 3.9x -
AstraZeneca AZN LN 8201) endocrine therapy HER2 low-expressing metastatic 48.9bn 24% 3.8x
breast cancer
Daiichi Sankyo / 4568 JP / Enhertu (trastuzumab deruxtecan, DS- Data of Phase III DESTINY-Gastric04 trial vs Cyramza in 2H 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 5.4bn 2020 2030 20% 21.1 - 10% - 3.9x -
AstraZeneca AZN LN 8201) combination with paclitaxel in second-line HER2-positive 48.9bn 24% 3.8x
advanced gastric cancer resistant or refractory to
Herceptin
AstraZeneca / AZN LN / nirsevimab (Beyfortus) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) for 1H 2024 Regulatory Marketed 46% 0.7bn 2022 2% 2.9 - 1% - 4.2x -
Sanofi / Swedish SAN FP / prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) lower Action 9.7bn 5% 3.5x
Orphan Biovitrum SOBI SS respiratory tract disease in children up to 24 months of
27 March 2024
age who remain vulnerable to severe RSV disease
through their second RSV season
AstraZeneca AZN LN Tagrisso (AZD9291, osimertinib) Data of Phase III trial NeoADAURA in neoadjuvant >2023 Data Release Marketed 37% 8.1bn 2015 2030 11% 47.3 - 23% - 5.8x -
EGFR mutation-positive non-small cell lung cancer 62.8bn 30% 6.1x
(NSCLC)
21
22
Contribution
to total
AstraZeneca AZN LN Tagrisso (AZD9291, osimertinib) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in 1H 2024 Regulatory Marketed 37% 8.1bn 2015 2030 11% 47.3 - 23% - 5.8x -
combination with Alimta and cisplatin or carboplatin in Action 62.8bn 30% 6.1x
first line EGFR mutation positive non-squamous non-
small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), based on Phase III
FLAURA2 trial
AstraZeneca AZN LN Tagrisso (AZD9291, osimertinib) BI-estimated PDUFA date of sNDA in combination with Feb 14 PDUFA Marketed 37% 8.1bn 2015 2030 11% 47.3 - 23% - 5.8x -
Alimta and cisplatin or carboplatin in first line EGFR 2024 62.8bn 30% 6.1x
mutation positive non-squamous non-small cell lung
cancer (NSCLC), based on Phase III FLAURA2 trial
AstraZeneca AZN LN tremelimumab (Imjudo)/durvalumab Data from Phase III VOLGA trial of Imfinzi in combination >2023 Data Release Marketed 37% 0.4bn 2022 1% 1.4 - 1% - 3.6x -
(Imfinzi) with Padcev, with or without Imjudo in neoadjuvant 1.8bn 1% 3.9x
cisplatin-ineligible muscle invasive bladder cancer,
followed by adjuvant Imfinzi
Otsuka / 4578 JP / Truqap (capivasertib) OS primary data from Phase III CAPItello-290 trial in 1H 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 1.3bn 2022 2030 5% 4.1 - 2% - 3.2x -
AstraZeneca AZN LN combination with paclitaxel in first-line triple-negative 6.1bn 3% 3.6x
breast cancer
Bayer BAYN GR Kerendia (finerenone) Data from Phase III renal outcome trial FIND-CKD in 2024/2025 Data Release Marketed 46% 1.7bn 2014 2032 26% 5.7 - 20% - 3.1x -
nondiabetic chronic kidney disease (CKD) 10.3bn 36% 3.1x
Bayer BAYN GR Kerendia (finerenone) Data from Phase III morbidity and mortality outcome trial 2024/2025 Data Release Marketed 46% 1.7bn 2014 2032 26% 5.7 - 20% - 3.1x -
FINEARTS-HF in heart failure with preserved ejection 10.3bn 36% 3.1x
fraction
Orion / Bayer ORNBV Nubeqa (darolutamide, ODM-201) Data from Phase III trial ARANOTE in combination with 1H 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 3.3bn 2019 2030 73% 16.8 - 58% - 4.6x -
FH / BAYN standard androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in 22.9bn 80% 5.2x
GR metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer
Eisai / Biogen / 4523 JP / Leqembi (lecanemab, BAN2401) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in early Feb/Mar Regulatory Marketed 41% 3.9bn 2023 2036 104% 9.4 - 28% - 2.4x -
BioArctic BIIB US / Alzheimer’s disease, based on data of Phase III trial 2024 Action 18.6bn 55% 2.9x
Neuroscience BIOAB SS Clarity AD (Study 301)
Ionis Pharma / IONS US / Qalsody (tofersen) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in 1Q 2024 Regulatory Marketed 41% 0.2bn 2023 2033 8% 0.7 - 2% - 3.4x -
Biogen BIIB US amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients with SOD1 Action 1.6bn 5% 3.6x
mutations
Biogen / Bio- BIIB US / Tofidence (biosimilar to Actemra, Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in Late Regulatory Phase III 51% 0.1bn 2024 2031 7% 0.3 - 1% - 2.2x -

Thera Solutions 688177 BIIB800, BAT1806) rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and other Actemra indications 2023/1H Action 0.6bn 2% 2.6x
Ltd CH 2024
Bristol-Myers BMY US / Abecma (idecabtagene vicleucel, Potential FDA approval (BI-estimated timeline) of sBLA 1H 2024 PDUFA Marketed 37% 2.0bn 2021 2036 NM 8.3 - 8% - 4.2x -
Squibb / 2seventy TSVT US bb2121) in third-line triple-class exposed multiple myeloma, based 12.0bn 11% 4.6x
bio, Inc. on Phase III KarMMa-3 trial--FDA action delayed beyond
PDUFA date of Dec 16, 2023 due to FDA’s decision to
hold an advisory panel to review OS data of KarMMa-3,
reported Nov 20, 2023
27 March 2024
Contribution
to total
Bristol-Myers BMY US / Abecma (idecabtagene vicleucel, FDA release of briefing documents for March 15 Mar 13 FDA Briefing Marketed 37% 2.0bn 2021 2036 NM 8.3 - 8% - 4.2x -
Squibb / 2seventy TSVT US bb2121) Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee meeting to discuss 2024 Documents 12.0bn 11% 4.6x
bio, Inc. sBLA 125736.218 for ABECMA (idecabtagene vicleucel),
suspension for intravenous infusion, submitted by
Celgene Corp., a Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. The proposed
indication is for the treatment of adult patients with
relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma who have
received an immunomodulatory agent, a proteasome
inhibitor, and an anti-CD38 monoclonal antibody. The
Committee will have a general discussion focused on the
overall survival data in the Study MM-003 (KarMMa-3)
and the risk and benefit of idecabtagene vicleucel in the
intended population.
Bristol-Myers BMY US / Abecma (idecabtagene vicleucel, FDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee meeting to Mar 15 FDA Panel Marketed 37% 2.0bn 2021 2036 NM 8.3 - 8% - 4.2x -
Squibb / 2seventy TSVT US bb2121) discuss sBLA 125736.218 for ABECMA (idecabtagene 2024 12.0bn 11% 4.6x
bio, Inc. vicleucel), suspension for intravenous infusion, submitted
by Celgene Corp., a Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. The
proposed indication is for the treatment of adult patients
with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma who have
received an immunomodulatory agent, a proteasome
inhibitor, and an anti-CD38 monoclonal antibody. The
Committee will have a general discussion focused on the
overall survival data in the Study MM-003 (KarMMa-3)
and the risk and benefit of idecabtagene vicleucel in the
intended population.
Bristol-Myers BMY US Breyanzi (lisocabtagene maraleucel, PDUFA date of sBLA in relapsed/refractory (third-line) Mar 14 PDUFA Marketed 37% 2.2bn 2021 2032 NM 8.8 - 8% - 3.9x -
Squibb JCAR017) chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) or small lymphocytic 2024 15.6bn 14% 4.0x
lymphoma (SLL)
Bristol-Myers BMY US Breyanzi (lisocabtagene maraleucel, PDUFA date of sBLA in second-line high-risk and third- May 23 PDUFA Marketed 37% 2.2bn 2021 2032 NM 8.8 - 8% - 3.9x -
Squibb JCAR017) line follicular lymphoma 2024 15.6bn 14% 4.0x
Bristol-Myers BMY US nivolumab (Opdivo, BMS-936558) Data of Phase III trial CA017-078 of Opdivo in 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 12.0bn 2014 2027 NM 45.8 - 42% - 3.8x -

Squibb combination with chemo in neoadjuvant muscle-invasive 56.0bn 51% 3.9x
bladder cancer, followed by continued post-surgery
Opdivo
Bristol-Myers BMY US cendakimab Data of Phase III trial in eosinophilic esophagitis 2024 Data Release Marketed 49% 0.4bn 2023 2034 NM 1.0 - 1% - 2.5x -
Squibb 1.5bn 1% 3.1x
Bristol-Myers BMY US Krazati (adagrasib) Final PFS and interim OS data of Phase III trial 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 1.9bn 2013 2035 NM 5.5 - 5% - 2.9x -
Squibb KRYSTAL-10 in combination with Erbitux in second-line 10.1bn 9% 3.4x
colorectal cancer with KRAS G12C mutation
Bristol-Myers BMY US Krazati (adagrasib) Data of confirmatory Phase III trial KRYSTAL-12 of 1H 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 1.9bn 2013 2035 NM 5.5 - 5% - 2.9x -
Squibb monotherapy vs docetaxel in second-line non-small cell 10.1bn 9% 3.4x
27 March 2024
lung cancer with KRAS G12C mutations
Bristol-Myers BMY US nivolumab (Opdivo, BMS-936558) Data of Phase III trial CA017-078 of Opdivo in 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 12.0bn 2014 2027 NM 45.8 - 42% - 3.8x -
Squibb combination with chemo in neoadjuvant muscle-invasive 56.0bn 51% 3.9x
bladder cancer, followed by continued post-surgery
Opdivo
23
24
Contribution
to total
Bristol-Myers BMY US nivolumab (Opdivo, BMS-936558) Data from Phase III POETYK-PsA-2 trial in psoriatic 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 12.0bn 2014 2027 NM 45.8 - 42% - 3.8x -
Squibb arthritis 56.0bn 51% 3.9x
Bristol-Myers BMY US nivolumab (Opdivo, BMS-936558) Induction data from Phase III trial YELLOWSTONE in 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 12.0bn 2014 2027 NM 45.8 - 42% - 3.8x -
Squibb Crohn’s disease 56.0bn 51% 3.9x
Bristol-Myers BMY US nivolumab (Opdivo, BMS-936558) PDUFA date of sBLA in relapsed/refractory (third-line) Mar 14 PDUFA Marketed 37% 12.0bn 2014 2027 NM 45.8 - 42% - 3.8x -
Squibb chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) or small lymphocytic 2024 56.0bn 51% 3.9x
lymphoma (SLL)
Bristol-Myers BMY US Sotyktu (deucravacitinib) Data from Phase III POETYK-PsA-2 trial in psoriatic 2024 Data Release Marketed 51% 2.9bn 2020 2033 NM 9.7 - 9% - 3.4x -
Squibb arthritis 16.7bn 15% 3.6x
Bristol-Myers BMY US / Yervoy/ nivolumab (Opdivo) OS primary data in cisplatin-ineligible patients from 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 2.3bn 2013 2024 73% 4.3 - 4% - 1.8x -
Squibb / Ono 4528 JP Phase III combination trial CheckMate-901 in first line 4.7bn 4% 1.9x
Pharma bladder cancer--did not meet primary endpoint of OS in
PD-L1 positive patients in May 2022 and trial continues
to assess other primary and secondary endpoints
Bristol-Myers BMY US / Yervoy/ nivolumab (Opdivo) Data of Phase III trial CheckMate-73L of Opdivo plus 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 2.3bn 2013 2024 73% 4.3 - 4% - 1.8x -
Squibb / Ono 4528 JP concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) followed by 4.7bn 4% 1.9x
Pharma Opdivo plus Yervoy or by Opdivo alone, vs CCRT
followed by Imfinzi in untreated Stage III non-small cell
lung cancer
Bristol-Myers BMY US Zeposia (ozanimod) Induction data from Phase III trial YELLOWSTONE in 2024 Data Release Marketed 51% 1.7bn 2020 2031 NM 5.9 - 5% - 3.6x -
Squibb Crohn’s disease 9.3bn 8% 3.5x
Exelixis / Ipsen / EXEL US / Cabometyx (Cometriq, Second OS analysis (co-primary endpoint) of Phase III 2H 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 2.2bn 2014 2028 66% 11.8 - 174% - 5.4x -
Roche IPN FP / cabozantinib)/atezolizumab (Tecentriq) combination trial CONTACT-02 in castration-resistant 18.7bn 274% 5.1x
ROG SW prostate cancer previously treated with one novel
hormonal therapy
Gilead Sciences GILD US Trodelvy (sacituzumab govitecan, OS primary data of Phase III TROPiCS-04 trial in 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 3.5bn 2020 2032 49% 15.3 - 16% - 4.4x -
IMMU-132) second-line bladder cancer previously treated with 24.5bn 26% 4.4x
platinum-based chemo and anti-PD-1/PD-L1
Gilead Sciences GILD US Trodelvy (sacituzumab govitecan, PFS data from Phase III ASCENT-03 trial of 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 3.5bn 2020 2032 49% 15.3 - 16% - 4.4x -
IMMU-132) monotherapy in first-line PD-L1 negative and PD-L1 24.5bn 26% 4.4x
positive with prior IO triple-negative breast cancer

Genmab / AbbVie GMAB DC Epkinly (epcoritamab) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in third- 1H 2024 Regulatory Marketed 37% 1.9bn 2021 2035 37% 0.8 - 4% - 2.9x -
/ ABBV US line follicular lymphoma based on Phase I/II EPCORE Action 1.6bn 8% 3.1x
NHL-1 trial
Genmab / AbbVie GMAB DC Epkinly (epcoritamab) Potential FDA approval (company-expected timeline) of 2H 2024 PDUFA Marketed 37% 1.9bn 2021 2035 37% 0.8 - 4% - 2.9x -
/ ABBV US sBLA in third-line follicular lymphoma based on Phase I/II 1.6bn 8% 3.1x
EPCORE NHL-1 trial
Genmab / GMAB DC GEN3014 (HexaBody-CD38) Johnson & Johnson opt-in decision 2024 Other Phase III 37% 0.2bn 2027 2041 3% 0.0 - 0% - 1.2x -
Johnson & / JNJ US 0.1bn 1% 1.6x
Johnson
Genmab / GMAB DC Rybrevant (amivantamab) Potential FDA approval under RTOR (BI-estimated 4Q PDUFA Marketed 37% 0.2bn 2021 4% 0.1 - 0% - 3.0x -
27 March 2024
Johnson & / JNJ US timeline) of sBLA in combination with Alimta and 2023/Early 0.2bn 1% 3.2x
Johnson carboplatin in first-line non-small cell lung cancer with 2024
EGFR Exon 20 insertion mutations, and to convert
accelerated approval to full approval
Contribution
to total
Genmab / GMAB DC Rybrevant (amivantamab) BI-estimated PDUFA date of sBLA in combination with Feb 24 PDUFA Marketed 37% 0.2bn 2021 4% 0.1 - 0% - 3.0x -
Johnson & / JNJ US Alimta and carboplatin in first-line non-small cell lung 2024 0.2bn 1% 3.2x
Johnson cancer with EGFR Exon 20 insertion mutations, and to
convert accelerated approval to full approval--if not
approved earlier under RTOR in 4Q 2023/early 2024
Genmab / GMAB DC Rybrevant (amivantamab) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in Mid 2024 Regulatory Marketed 37% 0.2bn 2021 4% 0.1 - 0% - 3.0x -
Johnson & / JNJ US combination with Alimta and carboplatin in post Tagrisso Action 0.2bn 1% 3.2x
Johnson EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer, based on
Phase III MARIPOSA-2 trial
GSK PLC / GSK LN / Arexvy (GSK3844766A) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) of Mid 2024 Regulatory Marketed 46% 3.8bn 2023 2027 24% 22.8 - 26% - 4.8x -
Agenus AGEN US respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in adults 50-59 Action 32.2bn 37% 5.0x
years of age at increased risk of RSV-lower respiratory
tract disease
GSK PLC / GSK LN / Arexvy (GSK3844766A) PDUFA date of sBLA of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) Jun 7 2024 PDUFA Marketed 46% 3.8bn 2023 2027 24% 22.8 - 26% - 4.8x -
Agenus AGEN US vaccine in adults 50-59 years of age at increased risk of 32.2bn 37% 5.0x
RSV lower respiratory tract disease
GSK PLC GSK LN Blenrep (belantamab mafodotin, Potential FDA and EMA approval (company-expected 2024 PDUFA Marketed 37% 1.5bn 2018 4% 5.0 - 6% - 2.6x -
GSK2857916) timeline) in combination with Pomalyst and 12.8bn 14% 2.9x
dexamethasone in second-line multiple myeloma, based
on DREAMM-8
GSK PLC GSK LN Blenrep (belantamab mafodotin, Potential FDA and EMA approval (company-expected 2024 PDUFA Marketed 37% 1.5bn 2018 4% 5.0 - 6% - 2.6x -
GSK2857916) timeline) in combination with Velcade and 12.8bn 14% 2.9x
on DREAMM-7
GSK PLC GSK LN camlipixant Data of Phase III CALM-1 trial in twice-daily first-line 2H 2024 Data Release Phase III 58% 1.1bn 2025 3% 2.6 - 3% - 1.8x -
treatment of refractory chronic cough 6.6bn 7% 2.2x
GSK PLC / GSK LN / cobolimab (TSR-022)/Jemperli Data from Phase III part of Phase II/III COSTAR Lung 2H 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 0.3bn 2025 1% 0.6 - 1% - 1.8x -
AnaptysBio ANAB US (dostarlimab) trial of triple combination with docetaxel, and doublet 1.4bn 2% 2.2x
(dostarlimab and docetaxel) in non-small cell lung cancer
with progression on prior PD-(L)1 and chemotherapy
SCYNEXIS Inc / SCYX US ibrexafungerp (Brexafemme) Data from Phase III MARIO trial as an oral step-down 1H 2024 Data Release Marketed 51% 0.1bn 2023 2031 424% 0.3 - 543% - 2.4x -

GSK PLC / GSK LN treatment for invasive candidiasis in the hospital setting 0.4bn 630% 2.8x
GSK PLC GSK LN mepolizumab (Nucala) Data of new Phase III trial MATINEE in chronic 1H 2024 Data Release Marketed 48% 2.4bn 2015 2025 1% 18.0 - 20% - 6.1x -
obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients with an 22.1bn 25% 6.5x
eosinophilic phenotype and frequent exacerbations
GSK PLC GSK LN niraparib (Zejula) Data of Phase III ZEAL-1L trial in combination with 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 1.0bn 2012 2028 4% 7.8 - 9% - 6.0x -
Keytruda in maintenance following first-line induction with 17.0bn 19% 4.9x
Keytruda plus platinum-based chemo in non-small cell
lung cancer
GSK PLC GSK LN niraparib (Zejula) Potential FDA and EMA approval (company-expected 2024 PDUFA Marketed 37% 1.0bn 2012 2028 4% 7.8 - 9% - 6.0x -
timeline) in combination with Pomalyst and 17.0bn 19% 4.9x
27 March 2024
on DREAMM-8
MeiraGTx MGTX US botaretigene sparoparvovec (AAV- Data from Phase III Lumeos trial in X-linked retinitis 2024 Data Release Phase III 42% 0.6bn 2024 2% 1.2 - 0% - 2.2x -
Holdings plc / / JNJ US RPGR) pigmentosa (XLRP) 2.0bn 1% 2.6x
Johnson &
Johnson
25
26
Contribution
to total
Johnson & JNJ US / Carvykti (ciltacabtagene autoleucel) Potential CHMP opinion (company-expected timeline) in Feb/Mar Regulatory Marketed 37% 7.0bn 2022 2036 34% 23.9 - 6% - 3.4x -
Johnson / Legend 1548 HK relapsed and Revlimid-refractory multiple myeloma with 2024 Action 44.3bn 11% 3.7x
Biotech (Genscript one to three prior lines of therapy, based on data of
Biotech) CARTITUDE-4 trial
Johnson & JNJ US / Carvykti (ciltacabtagene autoleucel) FDA release of briefing documents for March 15 Mar 13 FDA Panel Marketed 37% 7.0bn 2022 2036 34% 23.9 - 6% - 3.4x -
Johnson / Legend 1548 HK Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee meeting to discuss 2024 44.3bn 11% 3.7x
Biotech (Genscript sBLA 125746.74 for CARVYKTI (ciltacabtagene
Biotech) autoleucel), suspension for intravenous infusion,
submitted by Janssen Biotech, Inc. The proposed
relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma, who have
received at least one prior line of therapy, including a
proteasome inhibitor, and an immunomodulatory agent,
and are refractory to lenalidomide. During the morning
session, the Committee will have a general discussion
focused on the overall survival data in the Study
MMY3002 (CARTITUDE-4) and the risk and benefit of
ciltacabtagene autoleucel in the intended population.
Johnson & JNJ US / Carvykti (ciltacabtagene autoleucel) FDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee meeting to Mar 15 FDA Panel Marketed 37% 7.0bn 2022 2036 34% 23.9 - 6% - 3.4x -
Johnson / Legend 1548 HK discuss sBLA 125746.74 for CARVYKTI (ciltacabtagene 2024 44.3bn 11% 3.7x
Biotech (Genscript autoleucel), suspension for intravenous infusion,
Biotech) submitted by Janssen Biotech, Inc. The proposed
relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma, who have
received at least one prior line of therapy, including a
proteasome inhibitor, and an immunomodulatory agent,
and are refractory to lenalidomide. During the morning
session, the Committee will have a general discussion
focused on the overall survival data in the Study
MMY3002 (CARTITUDE-4) and the risk and benefit of
ciltacabtagene autoleucel in the intended population.

Johnson & JNJ US / Carvykti (ciltacabtagene autoleucel) PDUFA date of sBLA in relapsed or refractory multiple Apr 5 2024 Regulatory Marketed 37% 7.0bn 2022 2036 34% 23.9 - 6% - 3.4x -
Johnson / Legend 1548 HK myeloma patients who have received at least one prior Action 44.3bn 11% 3.7x
Biotech (Genscript line of therapy including a proteasome inhibitor, an
Biotech) immunomodulatory agent, and are refractory to Revlimid,
based on data of CARTITUDE-4 trial
Genmab / GMAB DC daratumumab (Darzalex Faspro) BI-estimated PDUFA date of sBLA in combination with Nov 30 PDUFA Marketed 37% 16.8bn 2015 2028 51% 70.0 - 18% - 4.2x -
Johnson & / JNJ US / subcutaneous formulation with PH20 Velcade, Revlimid and dexamethasone in induction and 2024 86.6bn 22% 4.3x
Johnson / HALO US consolidation, and with Revlimid in maintenance in first-
Halozyme line multiple myeloma eligible for transplant, based on
Phase III PERSEUS trial
27 March 2024
Johnson & JNJ US / lazertinib BI-estimated PDUFA date of NDA in combination with Dec 20 PDUFA Phase III 37% 3.3bn 2024 7% 7.0 - 2% - 2.2x -
Johnson / Yuhan 000100 Rybrevant in first-line EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung 2024 8.4bn 2% 2.6x
Corp KS cancer, based on Phase III MARIPOSA trial
Contribution
to total
Protagonist PTGX US PN-235 (JNJ-77242113) Data from Phase III ICONIC-TOTAL trial in psoriasis in 4Q 2024 Data Release Phase III 51% 1.9bn 2025 4% 3.4 - 1% - 1.8x -
Therapeutics / / JNJ US special areas (scalp, genital, palms of hands and soles of 5.5bn 1% 2.2x
Johnson & feet)
Johnson
Protagonist PTGX US PN-235 (JNJ-77242113) Data from Phase III ICONIC-LEAD trial in psoriasis 4Q 2024 Data Release Phase III 51% 1.9bn 2025 4% 3.4 - 1% - 1.8x -
Therapeutics / / JNJ US 5.5bn 1% 2.2x
Johnson &
Johnson
Eli Lilly LLY US donanemab (N3pG-AB, LY3002813) Potential FDA approval (company-expected timeline) of 1Q 2024 PDUFA Phase III 41% 5.7bn 2024 2031 8% 12.7 - 2% - 2.2x -
resubmitted BLA for full approval in early Alzheimer’s 40.2bn 6% 2.6x
disease patients
Eli Lilly LLY US donanemab (N3pG-AB, LY3002813) Primary data of Phase III EMBER-3 trial of monotherapy 2Q 2024 Data Release Phase III 41% 5.7bn 2024 2031 8% 12.7 - 2% - 2.2x -
in ER-positive, HER2-negative advanced or metastatic 40.2bn 6% 2.6x
breast cancer previously treated with endocrine therapy
Eli Lilly LLY US imlunestrant (LY3484356) Primary data of Phase III EMBER-3 trial of monotherapy 2Q 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 0.9bn 2024 2035 1% 2.0 - 0% - 2.2x -
in ER-positive, HER2-negative advanced or metastatic 3.7bn 1% 2.6x
breast cancer previously treated with endocrine therapy
Eli Lilly LLY US insulin efsitora alfa (basal insulin-Fc) Data of Phase III QWINT-4 trial of once weekly dosing vs 2Q 2024 Data Release Phase III 49% 2.1bn 2024 2034 2% 4.6 - 1% - 2.2x -
Lantus in type II diabetes patients on multiple daily 6.3bn 1% 2.6x
injections
Eli Lilly LLY US insulin efsitora alfa (basal insulin-Fc) Data of Phase III QWINT-2 trial of once weekly dosing vs 2Q 2024 Data Release Phase III 49% 2.1bn 2024 2034 2% 4.6 - 1% - 2.2x -
Tresiba in basal insulin naive type II diabetes 6.3bn 1% 2.6x
Eli Lilly LLY US insulin efsitora alfa (basal insulin-Fc) Data of Phase III QWINT-5 trial of once weekly dosing vs Mid 2024 Data Release Phase III 49% 2.1bn 2024 2034 2% 4.6 - 1% - 2.2x -
Tresiba in type I diabetes 6.3bn 1% 2.6x
Eli Lilly LLY US insulin efsitora alfa (basal insulin-Fc) Data of Phase III QWINT-3 trial of once weekly dosing vs Mid 2024 Data Release Phase III 49% 2.1bn 2024 2034 2% 4.6 - 1% - 2.2x -
Tresiba in type II diabetes patients treated with basal 6.3bn 1% 2.6x
insulin
Eli Lilly LLY US insulin efsitora alfa (basal insulin-Fc) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in early >=May Regulatory Phase III 49% 2.1bn 2024 2034 2% 4.6 - 1% - 2.2x -
Alzheimer’s disease 2024 Action 6.3bn 1% 2.6x
Eli Lilly LLY US Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) PFS primary data of Phase III BRUIN CLL-313 trial vs Late 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 2.1bn 2023 2033 3% 7.2 - 1% - 3.4x -
bendamustine and Rituxan in first-line chronic 17.8bn 3% 3.5x

lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)/small lymphocytic lymphoma
(SLL)
Eli Lilly LLY US Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) Data of Phase IIIb SURMOUNT-5 trial vs Wegovy in Late 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 2.1bn 2023 2033 3% 7.2 - 1% - 3.4x -
obesity 17.8bn 3% 3.5x
Eli Lilly LLY US Zepbound (tirzepatide) Data of Phase III SUMMIT trial in patients with obesity 3Q 2024 Data Release Marketed 39% 31.5bn 2022 45% 101.9 - 15% - 3.2x -
and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction 197.9bn 28% 3.6x
Eli Lilly LLY US Zepbound (tirzepatide) PFS primary data of Phase III BRUIN CLL-313 trial vs Late 2024 Data Release Marketed 39% 31.5bn 2022 45% 101.9 - 15% - 3.2x -
bendamustine and Rituxan in first-line chronic 197.9bn 28% 3.6x
lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)/small lymphocytic lymphoma
(SLL)
27 March 2024
Merck KGaA / MRK GR / xevinapant (Debio 1143) Interim analysis of Phase III TrilynX trial in combination Early 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 1.4bn 2024 27% 3.1 - 4% - 2.0x -
Debiopharm 187330Z with chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in cisplatin-eligible 3.7bn 5% 2.4x
SW patients with high-risk locally advanced squamous head
and neck cancer
27
28
Contribution
to total
Merck KGaA / MRK GR / xevinapant (Debio 1143) Primary EFS data of Phase III TrilynX trial in combination Late 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 1.4bn 2024 27% 3.1 - 4% - 2.0x -
Debiopharm 187330Z with chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in cisplatin-eligible 3.7bn 5% 2.4x
SW patients with high-risk locally advanced squamous head
and neck cancer
Merck MRK US favezelimab (MK-4280) Primary OS completion of Phase III 007 trial of co- 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 2.5bn 2024 2% 7.2 - 2% - 2.9x -
formulation with Keytruda in previously treated PD-L1 8.6bn 3% 3.4x
positive microsatellite stable colorectal cancer
Merck MRK US pembrolizumab (Keytruda, MK-3475) OS data of Phase III KEYNOTE-A18 trial in combination 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 34.3bn 2014 2027 55% 135.2 - 43% - 3.9x -
with chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced cervical 165.4bn 53% 4.0x
cancer
Merck MRK US pembrolizumab (Keytruda, MK-3475) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in 1H 2024 Regulatory Marketed 37% 34.3bn 2014 2027 55% 135.2 - 43% - 3.9x -
combination with platinum doublet chemo in neoadjuvant Action 165.4bn 53% 4.0x
stage II, IIIA, or IIIB non-small cell lung cancer, followed
by adjuvant monotherapy, based on EFS data of Phase
III KEYNOTE-671 trial
Merck MRK US pembrolizumab (Keytruda, MK-3475) Primary completion of Phase III trial KEYLYNK-001 of 4Q 2023 Data Release Marketed 37% 34.3bn 2014 2027 55% 135.2 - 43% - 3.9x -
induction with Keytruda in combination with chemo, 165.4bn 53% 4.0x
followed by maintenance Keytruda with or without
Lynparza in first-line BRCA non-mutated ovarian cancer
Merck MRK US sotatercept (ACE-011) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in Mar/Apr Regulatory Phase III 39% 4.8bn 2024 2035 20% 23.5 - 8% - 4.9x -
pulmonary arterial hypertension--granted accelerated 2024 Action 46.1bn 15% 5.6x
assessment
Merck MRK US sotatercept (ACE-011) PDUFA date of BLA in pulmonary arterial hypertension Mar 26 PDUFA Phase III 39% 4.8bn 2024 2035 20% 23.5 - 8% - 4.9x -
2024 46.1bn 15% 5.6x
Merck / Ligand MRK US / V116 PDUFA date of BLA of 21-valent pneumococcal vaccine Jun 17 PDUFA Marketed 48% 1.4bn 2013 2030 6% 4.5 - 1% - 3.3x -
Pharma LGND US in adults 2024 11.7bn 4% 3.4x
Moderna MRNA US mRNA-1345 Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) of >=April Regulatory Phase III 46% 2.6bn 2024 2037 49% 7.7 - 18% - 2.9x -
prophylactic respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in 2024 Action 13.2bn 31% 3.5x
adults aged 60 years or older
Moderna MRNA US mRNA-1345 BI-estimated PDUFA date of BLA of prophylactic April, 2024 PDUFA Phase III 46% 2.6bn 2024 2037 49% 7.7 - 18% - 2.9x -
respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in adults aged 13.2bn 31% 3.5x

60 years or older
Moderna MRNA US mRNA-1647 Potential data from Phase III CMVictory trial of 2024 Data Release Phase III 46% 1.6bn 2025 2035 21% 3.9 - 9% - 2.5x -
prophylactic cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine in 9.8bn 23% 3.0x
seronegative women ages 16-40 years
Novartis / NOVN SW AVXS-101 (Zolgensma, Data of new pivotal confirmatory Phase III trial STEER of 2H 2024 Data Release Marketed 41% 1.8bn 2019 2032 7% 8.6 - 4% - 4.9x -
REGENXBIO / RGNX onasemnogene abeparvovec) intrathecal delivery in treatment-naive spinal muscular 11.7bn 5% 5.0x
US atrophy type II patients ages 2-18 years
Novartis NOVN SW Beovu (brolucizumab, RTH258) Data of Phase III CONDOR non-inferiority trial vs Eylea 2024 Data Release Marketed 42% 0.3bn 2019 2030 0% 1.6 - 1% - 6.0x -
in proliferative diabetic retinopathy 1.8bn 1% 6.8x
Novartis NOVN SW Fabhalta (iptacopan) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in Apr-Jul Regulatory Marketed 46% 3.5bn 2023 32% 9.4 - 4% - 2.7x -
27 March 2024
paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) 2024 Action 14.0bn 6% 3.1x
Novartis / Alnylam NOVN SW inclisiran (Leqvio) Data from Phase III cardiovascular outcomes trial 2029 Data Release Marketed 15% 3.4bn 2013 33% 12.8 - 5% - 3.8x -
/ Arbutus / ALNY US VICTORION-1 PREVENT in primary prevention of MACE 17.9bn 7% 4.2x
Biopharma / ABUS in patients at high risk for their first major adverse
US cardiovascular event
Contribution
to total
Novartis NOVN SW JDQ443 Data of Phase III trial KontRASt 02 vs docetaxel in 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 0.4bn 2024 2029 4% 0.9 - 0% - 2.2x -
second-line KRAS G12C-mutated non-small cell lung 2.0bn 1% 2.6x
cancer
Novartis NOVN SW Kisqali (ribociclib, LEE011) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in 1H 2024 Regulatory Marketed 37% 6.9bn 2017 2031 62% 33.9 - 14% - 4.9x -
combination with endocrine therapy in adjuvant high- and Action 44.7bn 18% 5.5x
intermediate-risk HR-positive, HER2-negative breast
cancer, based on interim analysis of NATALEE trial
Novartis NOVN SW Kisqali (ribociclib, LEE011) Potential FDA approval (company-expected timeline) in 2024 PDUFA Marketed 37% 6.9bn 2017 2031 62% 33.9 - 14% - 4.9x -
combination with endocrine therapy in adjuvant high- and 44.7bn 18% 5.5x
intermediate-risk HR-positive, HER2-negative breast
cancer, based on interim analysis of NATALEE trial
Novartis / ABX NOVN SW Pluvicto (lutetium [177lu] vipivotide Third interim OS analysis and primary rPFS data from 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 4.2bn 2022 33% 19.0 - 8% - 4.6x -
GmbH tetraxetan) Phase III trial PSMAfore in pre-taxane metastatic 26.0bn 11% 4.9x
castration-resistant prostate cancer patients
Novartis NOVN SW sabatolimab (MBG453) OS data from Phase III trial STIMULUS-MDS-2 in 2024 Data Release Marketed 100% 0.1bn 1% NM NM NM
combination with HMA in adults with intermediate, high
or very high risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS)--to
support US and EU filing
Novo Nordisk NOVOB CagriSema (cagrilintide Data of Phase III REDEFINE 1 trial of once-weekly Late 2024 Data Release Phase III 49% 30.3bn 2025 2036 12% 15.2 - 3% - 3.6x -
DC [AM833]/semaglutide) subcutaneous injection of combination vs cagrilintide 22.9bn 4% 4.3x
alone and Wegovy 2.4 mg alone in obesity patients
without diabetes
Novo Nordisk NOVOB icosema (LAIsema, insulin icodec Data of Phase III COMBINE 1 trial for once-weekly 1H 2024 Data Release Phase III 49% 1.0bn 2024 2030 1% 0.5 - 0% - 3.9x -
DC [LAI287]/semaglutide fixed-ratio combo dosing vs insulin icodec in type II diabetes patients 0.8bn 0% 4.6x
injection)
Novo Nordisk NOVOB icosema (LAIsema, insulin icodec Full data from Phase III FLOW renal outcomes trial in 1H 2024 Data Release Phase III 49% 1.0bn 2024 2030 1% 0.5 - 0% - 3.9x -
DC [LAI287]/semaglutide fixed-ratio combo patients with type II diabetes and diabetic nephropathy-- 0.8bn 0% 4.6x
injection) seeking to bridge to ORAL SOUL trial to support diabetic
nephropathy indication for both oral and subcutaneous
formulations--trial stopped early for efficacy at interim
analysis in Oct 2023

Novo Nordisk NOVOB insulin icodec (LAI287) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) of once- Apr-Jul Regulatory Phase III 49% 3.1bn 2024 3% 0.9 - 0% - 2.0x -
DC weekly dosing in diabetes 2024 Action 1.3bn 0% 2.4x
Novo Nordisk NOVOB insulin icodec (LAI287) Data of Phase III COMBINE 2 trial for once-weekly Mid 2024 Data Release Phase III 49% 3.1bn 2024 3% 0.9 - 0% - 2.0x -
DC dosing vs semaglutide 1 mg in type II diabetes patients 1.3bn 0% 2.4x
Novo Nordisk NOVOB Rybelsus (semaglutide tablets) Data of cardiovascular outcomes trial Oral SOUL with 2H 2024 Data Release Marketed 49% 7.4bn 2019 2032 10% 4.5 - 1% - 4.3x -
DC oral formulation in patients with type II diabetes and 6.0bn 1% 4.6x
established cardiovascular disease or chronic kidney
disease--to support CV benefit indication for both oral
and subcutaneous formulations
Novo Nordisk NOVOB semaglutide (Ozempic) Full data from Phase III FLOW renal outcomes trial in 1H 2024 Data Release Marketed 46% 25.6bn 2018 2031 29% 16.4 - 3% - 4.6x -
27 March 2024
DC patients with type II diabetes and diabetic nephropathy-- 24.8bn 4% 4.5x
seeking to bridge to ORAL SOUL trial to support diabetic
nephropathy indication for both oral and subcutaneous
formulations--trial stopped early for efficacy at interim
analysis in Oct 2023
29
30
Contribution
to total
Novo Nordisk NOVOB semaglutide (Ozempic) Potential FDA approval (company-expected timeline) of 2024/2025 PDUFA Marketed 46% 25.6bn 2018 2031 29% 16.4 - 3% - 4.6x -
DC 1mg once-weekly subcutaneous dosing in patients with 24.8bn 4% 4.5x
type II diabetes and peripheral arterial disease
Novo Nordisk NOVOB semaglutide (Ozempic) Data of Phase III STRIDE trial of 1mg once-weekly 3Q 2024 Data Release Marketed 46% 25.6bn 2018 2031 29% 16.4 - 3% - 4.6x -
DC subcutaneous dosing in patients with type II diabetes and 24.8bn 4% 4.5x
peripheral arterial disease
Novo Nordisk NOVOB semaglutide (Ozempic) Interim 72-week histology data (to support accelerated End of Data Release Marketed 46% 25.6bn 2018 2031 29% 16.4 - 3% - 4.6x -
DC approval) in Phase III ESSENCE trial of 2.4mg once- 2024/Early 24.8bn 4% 4.5x
weekly subcutaneous dosing in non-alcoholic 2025
steatohepatitis (NASH) with F2-F3 fibrosis
Novo Nordisk NOVOB semaglutide (Wegovy) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) for 1H 2024 Regulatory Marketed 49% 20.8bn 2021 2030 42% 12.1 - 2% - 4.2x -
DC prevention of major adverse cardiovascular events in Action 21.4bn 4% 4.1x
non-diabetic, obese or overweight patients with
established cardiovascular disease, based on SELECT
trial
Novo Nordisk NOVOB semaglutide (Wegovy) BI-estimated PDUFA date of sNDA for prevention of Early Mar PDUFA Marketed 49% 20.8bn 2021 2030 42% 12.1 - 2% - 4.2x -
DC major adverse cardiovascular events in non-diabetic, 2024 21.4bn 4% 4.1x
obese or overweight patients with established
cardiovascular disease, based on SELECT trial
Novo Nordisk NOVOB semaglutide (Wegovy) BI-estimated PDUFA date of sNDA for label update with Nov, 2024 PDUFA Marketed 49% 20.8bn 2021 2030 42% 12.1 - 2% - 4.2x -
DC data from Phase III STEP-HFpEF and STEP-HFpEF-DM 21.4bn 4% 4.1x
trials of 2.4mg once-weekly subcutaneous dosing in
patients with obesity-related heart failure with preserved
ejection fraction, with or without diabetes
Pfizer / Pierre PFE US / encorafenib (Braftovi) Final data of Phase III BREAKWATER trial in 2H 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 0.3bn 2018 2030 2% 1.7 - 1% - 5.3x -
Fabre / Ono PRFB FP / combination with Erbitux, with or without chemo in first- 3.7bn 2% 4.5x
Pharma 4528 JP line BRAF-mutant colorectal cancer
Pfizer PFE US fidanacogene elaparvovec BI-estimated PDUFA date of BLA of gene therapy in Apr 27 PDUFA Phase III 66% 0.5bn 2024 2038 6% 1.1 - 1% - 2.2x -
(SPK-9001, PF-06838435) hemophilia B 2024 2.0bn 1% 2.6x
Pfizer PFE US fordadistrogene movaparvovec Potential FDA approval (company-expected timeline) of 2024 PDUFA Phase III 41% 0.7bn 2024 2038 14% 1.6 - 1% - 2.2x -
(PF-06939926) gene therapy in Duchenne muscular dystrophy 3.9bn 2% 2.6x

Pfizer PFE US fordadistrogene movaparvovec Potential FDA approval (company-expected timeline) in 2024 PDUFA Phase III 41% 0.7bn 2024 2038 14% 1.6 - 1% - 2.2x -
(PF-06939926) combination with Herceptin/Perjeta plus endocrine 3.9bn 2% 2.6x
therapy, following induction with Herceptin/Perjeta in first
line HR-positive, HER2-positive metastatic breast
cancer, based on PATINA trial
Sangamo SGMO US giroctocogene fitelparvovec (SB-525) Data of Phase III AFFINE trial of gene therapy in Mid 2024 Data Release Phase III 66% 0.6bn 2024 2036 6% 1.3 - 1% - 2.2x -
BioSciences / / PFE US hemophilia A--voluntarily paused screening and dosing 2.5bn 2% 2.6x
Pfizer to implement protocol amendment following observance
of Factor VIII levels greater than 150% in some patients,
reported Nov 2021; FDA lifted clinical hold in March 2022
27 March 2024
Pfizer PFE US marstacimab (PF-06741086) Data from inhibitor cohort of Phase III BASIS trial of Late 2024 Data Release Phase III 66% 0.9bn 2024 2038 6% 2.1 - 1% - 2.2x -
subcutaneous weekly dose in adults and adolescents 3.1bn 2% 2.6x
with severe hemophilia A or B, with or without inhibitors
Pfizer PFE US marstacimab (PF-06741086) Primary completion of Phase III TALAPRO 3 trial in Late 2024 Data Release Phase III 66% 0.9bn 2024 2038 6% 2.1 - 1% - 2.2x -
combination with Xtandi in DDR gene mutated metastatic 3.1bn 2% 2.6x
castration sensitive prostate cancer
Contribution
to total
Pfizer PFE US palbociclib (Ibrance, PD-0332991, Data of Phase III trial PATINA in combination with 1H 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 4.4bn 2015 2021 NM 15.7 - 10% - 3.5x -
CDK4/6 inhibitor) Herceptin/Perjeta plus endocrine therapy, following 17.9bn 11% 3.6x
induction with Herceptin/Perjeta in first line HR-positive,
HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer
Pfizer PFE US palbociclib (Ibrance, PD-0332991, Potential FDA approval (company-expected timeline) of 2024 PDUFA Marketed 37% 4.4bn 2015 2021 NM 15.7 - 10% - 3.5x -
CDK4/6 inhibitor) gene therapy in Duchenne muscular dystrophy 17.9bn 11% 3.6x
Pfizer / Merck PFE US / sasanlimab (PF-06801591) Final event free survival primary data of Phase III 1H 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 0.3bn 2024 2038 2% 0.7 - 0% - 2.2x -
KGaA MRK GR CREST trial dosed subcutaneously as maintenance post- 0.8bn 0% 2.6x
BCG induction, alone or in combination with BCG, in
first-line high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer
Pfizer PFE US talazoparib (Talzenna) Primary completion of Phase III TALAPRO 3 trial in Late 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 0.9bn 2018 2038 9% 3.4 - 2% - 3.6x -
combination with Xtandi in DDR gene mutated metastatic 7.1bn 4% 3.5x
castration sensitive prostate cancer
Genmab / Pfizer GMAB DC Tivdak (tisotumab vedotin) PDUFA date of sBLA to convert accelerated approval to May 9 2024 PDUFA Marketed 37% 0.6bn 2013 2032 6% 2.5 - 2% - 4.0x -
/ PFE US full approval in recurrent or metastatic second-line 5.8bn 4% 3.8x
cervical cancer, based on Phase III innovaTV 301 trial
Pfizer / Astellas PFE US / Xtandi (enzalutamide, MDV3100) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in 1H 2024 Regulatory Marketed 37% 1.3bn 2016 2025 NM 4.5 - 3% - 3.5x -
Pharma 4503 JP combination with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in Action 5.7bn 4% 3.5x
non-metastatic, hormone-sensitive prostate cancer with
high-risk biochemical recurrence, based on Phase III trial
EMBARK trial
Regeneron / REGN US cemiplimab (Libtayo, REGN2810) Interim efficacy analysis of Phase III trial in adjuvant Mid 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 2.5bn 2018 2036 15% 12.9 - 12% - 5.1x -
Sanofi / SAN FP cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma 17.1bn 16% 5.6x
Regeneron / REGN US fianlimab (REGN3767)/cemiplimab Data from Phase III trial of combination in first-line End of 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 1.1bn 2024 2036 9% 2.5 - 2% - 2.3x -
Sanofi / SAN FP (Libtayo) melanoma 4.2bn 4% 2.7x
Roche ROG SW atezolizumab (Tecentriq, MPDL3280A) EFS data of Phase III IMpower030 trial in combination 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 5.6bn 2016 2029 9% 29.5 - 13% - 4.6x -
with platinum-based chemotherapy in neoadjuvant non- 36.6bn 16% 4.8x
small cell lung cancer, followed by adjuvant Tecentriq
Roche ROG SW atezolizumab (Tecentriq, MPDL3280A) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in 1H 2024 Regulatory Marketed 37% 5.6bn 2016 2029 9% 29.5 - 13% - 4.6x -
combination with Avastin in adjuvant liver cancer Action 36.6bn 16% 4.8x
Roche ROG SW Columvi (glofitamab) Data of Phase III STARGLO trial in combination with 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 3.3bn 2023 2031 7% 10.0 - 4% - 2.7x -

gemcitabine and oxaliplatin in second-line diffuse large 18.2bn 8% 3.1x
B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL)
Roche / Chugai ROG SW / crovalimab (RG6107, SKY59) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in >=April Regulatory Phase III 46% 2.1bn 2024 2029 3% 4.9 - 2% - 2.1x -
4519 JP paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) 2024 Action 5.8bn 3% 2.5x
Roche / Chugai ROG SW / crovalimab (RG6107, SKY59) BI-estimated PDUFA date of BLA in paroxysmal Jul 7 2024 PDUFA Phase III 46% 2.1bn 2024 2029 3% 4.9 - 2% - 2.1x -
4519 JP nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) 5.8bn 3% 2.5x
Chugai / Roche 4519 JP / Enspryng (satralizumab) Data of Phase III LUMINESCE trial in myasthenia gravis 2024 Data Release Marketed 100% 1.0bn 2018 2% 4.0 - 2% - 3.4x -
ROG SW 5.6bn 2% 3.5x
Sarepta SRPT US / Elevidys (delandistrogene BI-estimated PDUFA date of sBLA of micro-dystrophin Jun 21 PDUFA Phase III 41% 1.9bn 2024 4% 5.8 - 3% - 2.7x -
Therapeutics / ROG SW moxeparvovec, SRP-9001) gene therapy for Duchenne muscular dystrophy to 2024 11.8bn 5% 3.3x
27 March 2024
Roche expand label to all ages and both ambulatory and non-
ambulatory patients, and to convert accelerated approval
to full approval, based on data of EMBARK trial
Biogen / Roche / BIIB US / Gazyva (Gazyvaro, GA101, Data of Phase III trial REGENCY in lupus nephritis Fall 2024 Data Release Marketed 46% 1.7bn 2013 2029 5% 10.0 - 4% - 5.3x -
Chugai ROG SW / obinutuzumab, RG7159) 15.1bn 7% 5.3x
4519 JP
31
32
Contribution
to total
Roche ROG SW giredestrant (RG6171, GDC-9545) Interim analysis of Phase III persevERA Breast Cancer 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 3.5bn 2024 5% 8.2 - 4% - 2.1x -
trial in combination with Ibrance in first-line HR-positive 16.3bn 7% 2.5x
breast cancer
Roche / Halozyme ROG SW / ocrelizumab (Ocrevus) subcutaneous Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) of >=June Regulatory Marketed 41% 8.8bn 2017 2028 10% 43.0 - 19% - 4.3x -
HALO US formulation with PH20 subcutaneous formulation dosed every six months in 2024 Action 52.9bn 24% 4.5x
multiple sclerosis (MS)
Roche / Biogen ROG SW / Polivy (polatuzumab Data of Phase III SUNMO combination trial in second- 2024 Data Release Marketed 37% 2.7bn 2019 2030 8% 15.8 - 7% - 5.2x -
BIIB US vedotin)/mosunetuzumab (Lunsumio) line diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) 22.3bn 10% 5.6x
Roche ROG SW tiragolumab (RG6058)/ atezolizumab Data of Phase III SKYSCRAPER-03 combination trial vs 2024/2025 Data Release Phase III 37% 1.8bn 2024 4% 4.3 - 2% - 2.1x -
(Tecentriq) Imfinzi in unresectable locally advanced Stage III non- 6.7bn 3% 2.5x
small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who have not
progressed after concurrent platinum-based
chemoradiotherapy (CRT)
Roche ROG SW tiragolumab (RG6058)/ atezolizumab Data of Phase III STARSCAPE trial in idiopathic 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 1.8bn 2024 4% 4.3 - 2% - 2.1x -
(Tecentriq) pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) 6.7bn 3% 2.5x
Roche ROG SW zinpentraxin alfa (PRM-151) Data of Phase III STARSCAPE trial in idiopathic 2024 Data Release Phase III 46% 1.2bn 2027 2% 1.7 - 1% - 1.3x -
pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) 2.2bn 1% 1.7x
Regeneron / REGN US dupilumab (Dupixent, REGN668, Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in 1H 2024 Regulatory Marketed 48% 22.5bn 2016 2030 55% 92.7 - 76% - 3.8x -
Sanofi / SAN FP SAR231893) chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with type Action 107.2bn 88% 4.1x
II inflammation
Regeneron / REGN US dupilumab (Dupixent, REGN668, BI-estimated PDUFA date of sBLA in chronic obstructive Late June PDUFA Marketed 48% 22.5bn 2016 2030 55% 92.7 - 76% - 3.8x -
Sanofi / SAN FP SAR231893) pulmonary disease (COPD) with type II inflammation 2024 107.2bn 88% 4.1x
Regeneron / REGN US dupilumab (Dupixent, REGN668, Data from Phase III Study C in biologic-naive chronic Late 2024 Data Release Marketed 48% 22.5bn 2016 2030 55% 92.7 - 76% - 3.8x -
Sanofi / SAN FP SAR231893) idiopathic urticaria in adults and children aged 6 years 107.2bn 88% 4.1x
and older
Sanofi / Swedish SAN FP / efanesoctocog alfa (Altuviiio, BIVV001) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) for Mar-Jun Regulatory Marketed 66% 2.9bn 2023 11% 11.2 - 9% - 3.5x -
Orphan Biovitrum SOBI SS hemophilia A prophylaxis with once a week dosing in all 2024 Action 18.2bn 15% 3.8x
ages
Alnylam / Sanofi ALNY US / fitusiran (ALN-AT3) Data from lower dose cohort of pivotal Phase III trial 2024 Data Release Marketed 66% 0.7bn 2016 3% 1.7 - 1% - 2.3x -
SAN FP ATLAS-A/B in adult and adolescent severe hemophilia A 3.1bn 3% 2.9x
and B patients without inhibitors, with once-monthly

subcutaneous dose
Sanofi SAN FP rilzabrutinib (PRN1008) Data of Phase III trial LUNA3 in second- and later-line 1H 2024 Data Release Phase III 66% 0.9bn 2024 2030 1% 2.0 - 2% - 2.0x -
immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) 4.2bn 3% 2.4x
Sanofi SAN FP tolebrutinib (SAR442168) Data from Phase III HERCULES trial vs placebo in non- 3Q 2024 Data Release Phase III 41% 0.8bn 2024 2% 1.7 - 1% - 2.0x -
relapsing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis 2.8bn 2% 2.4x
Sanofi SAN FP tolebrutinib (SAR442168) Data of two Phase III GEMINI 1 and 2 trials vs Aubagio 3Q 2024 Data Release Phase III 41% 0.8bn 2024 2% 1.7 - 1% - 2.0x -
in relapsing multiple sclerosis 2.8bn 2% 2.4x
Syndax Pharma / SNDX US axatilimab (SNDX-6352, UCB6352) BI-estimated PDUFA date of BLA in chronic graft vs host Aug 28 PDUFA Phase III 100% 0.2bn 2024 2035 14% 0.3 - 17% - 1.8x -
Incyte / UCB / INCY US disease with two or more prior lines of therapy in adult 2024 1.2bn 61% 2.1x
Group / UCB BB and pediatric patients aged six years or older
27 March 2024
Apellis APLS US / Empaveli (pegcetacoplan) Data from Phase III VALIANT trial in C3 glomerulopathy 2024 Data Release Marketed 51% 0.4bn 2019 2032 22% 0.2 - 2% - 3.7x -
Pharmaceuticals SOBI SS (C3G) and immune complex membranoproliferative 0.3bn 3% 4.1x
Inc / Swedish glomerulonephritis (IC-MPGN), with proteinuria as
Orphan Biovitrum primary endpoint
Contribution
to total
Swedish Orphan SOBI SS Gamifant (emapalumab) Potential FDA approval (company-expected timeline) in 2024 PDUFA Marketed 100% 0.3bn 2019 2031 10% 0.1 - 1% - 4.4x -
Biovitrum second-line and/or third-line steroid-resistant and/or 0.2bn 2% 4.8x
Jakafi-resistant graft vs. host disease (GvHD)
Swedish Orphan SOBI SS Gamifant (emapalumab) Potential FDA approval (BI-estimated timeline) in 2024 PDUFA Marketed 100% 0.3bn 2019 2031 10% 0.1 - 1% - 4.4x -
Biovitrum rheumatologic hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis 0.2bn 2% 4.8x
(rHLH)
Teva / Alvotech TEVA IT / biosimilar to Humira (AVT02) BSUFA date of resubmitted BLA of citrate-free, high- Feb 24 PDUFA Phase III 51% 0.7bn 2024 38% 1.4 - 10% - 2.2x -
SA ALVO US concentration formulation (100 mg/mL) for rheumatoid 2024 1.7bn 11% 2.6x
arthritis (RA) and other indications as an interchangeable
biosimilar to Humira
Teva / Medincell TEVA IT / TV-44749 (olanzapine LAI) Full data from Phase III trial of long-acting subcutaneous 2H 2024 Data Release Phase III 43% 0.0bn 2025 0% NM NM NM
SA MEDCL formulation dosed monthly in schizophrenia
FP
UCB Group / UCB BB / AZ-002 (Staccato alprazolam) Data of Phase III trial as on-demand, single-use epileptic 1H 2024 Data Release Phase III 41% 0.3bn 2024 2039 3% NM NM NM
Alexza Pharma ALXA US seizure rescue therapy
UCB Group UCB BB Bimzelx (bimekizumab) Potential CHMP opinion (BI-estimated timeline) in Late Regulatory Marketed 66% 4.3bn 2021 2032 91% 15.2 - 66% - 3.3x -
hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) 2023/1H Action 24.6bn 107% 3.7x
2024
UCB Group / UCB BB / dapirolizumab pegol (CDP7657) Data from Phase III trials in systemic lupus erythematous Mid 2024 Data Release Phase III 37% 0.3bn 2025 2038 3% 0.6 - 3% - 1.8x -
Biogen / Nektar BIIB US / (SLE) 1.2bn 5% 2.2x
Therapeutics NKTR US
UCB Group UCB BB Fintepla (ZX008, low-dose Data from Phase III trial in CDKL5 deficiency disorder 2H 2024 Data Release Marketed 41% 0.9bn 2022 2027 19% 4.7 - 20% - 5.0x -
fenfluramine) 6.4bn 28% 5.5x
UCB Group UCB BB Rystiggo (rozanolixizumab) Data of Phase III trial in myelin oligodendrocyte 2H 2024 Data Release Marketed 51% 0.7bn 2023 2034 15% 2.6 - 11% - 3.5x -
glycoprotein (MOG)-antibody disease 3.7bn 16% 4.0x
Source: HSBC Research, Bloomberg, GlobalData, Visible Alpha, Refinitiv Eikon. Note: LOA is based on therapeutic area for the drugs that do not have consensus estimates.

27 March 2024
33
27 March 2024
Disclosure appendix
Analyst Certification
The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)
whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the covering
analyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or
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views or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflect
their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Rajesh Kumar, Sezgi Oezener, CFA, Morten Herholdt, Yifeng Liu,
Shubhangi Gupta, Ph.D., Sidharth Sahoo, Yessica Sanchez and Damayanti Kerai
Important disclosures
Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis
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27 March 2024
Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities

As of 31 December 2023, the distribution of all independent ratings published by HSBC is as follows:
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27 March 2024
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36
27 March 2024
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[1232488]
37
Global Life Sciences & Healthcare
Research Team
Developed markets - US & Europe
Head, European Life Sciences & Healthcare
Research
Rajesh Kumar +44 20 7991 1629
rajesh4kumar@hsbcib.com
Morten Herholdt + 44 20 7992 4082

morten.herholdt@hsbc.com
Sezgi Oezener, CFA +49 211 910 3290

sezgi.oezener@hsbc.de
Yifeng Liu +44 20 7 9919355

yifeng.liu@hsbc.com
Shubhangi Gupta, PhD +91 80 6737 3629

shubhangi.gupta@hsbc.co.in
Sidharth Sahoo +91 77 3813 4135

sidharth.sahoo@hsbc.co.in
EEMEA Healthcare
Head of EEMEA Equity Research
Raj Sinha +971 4 423 6932
raj.sinha@hsbc.com
Jaina Heerabhai +27 60 5010 4253

jaina.heerabhai@za.hsbc.com
Asia
Damayanti Kerai +91 22 3396 0692
damayantikerai@hsbc.co.in
Charlene Liu +65 6658 0615

charlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg
Jeremy Chen +8862 6631 2866

jeremy.cm.chen@hsbc.com.tw
Jessie Lu +852 2996 6570

jessie.x.lu@hsbc.com.hk
Gaurang Sakare +91 94 2257 7832
gaurang.sakare@hsbc.co.in
Nicholas Lai +886 2 6631 2867

nicholas.yl.lai@hsbc.com.tw
Jess Hsieh +886 2 6631 2871

jess.ch.hsieh@hsbc.com.tw
Latin America
Santhosh Seshadri, CFA +91 80 4555 2758
santhosh.seshadri@hsbc.co.in

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A tale of two recoveries - pre-close prep kit Developed Markets

key focus for MedTech Sezgi Oezener*, CFA

Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: HSBC Bank plc

Charts of the week:

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Reporting season planner

Q1 2024 Pre-close Schedule and comments

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Q1 2024 Pre-close Schedule and comments

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

News flow recap

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Our thematic reports

Our latest reports

Share price and multiple trends

Price momentum – BioPharma

12% Relative to Refinitiv Global Healthcare Index

8% BrightSpring Lonza (34%)

Bayer Astrazeneca Sanofi Merck KGaA GSK

Note: Priced at close of 25 March 2024

Price momentum – MedTech

8% Relative to Refinitiv Global Healthcare Index

Source: Priced as of 25 March 2024. Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates

Price performance – BioPharma

Price performance – MedTech

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Weekly performance split – MedTech

Smith & Nephew

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Sector multiples and valuation comparisons

Sector multiple – Biopharma Risk premium – Biopharma

BioPharma coverage earnings Yield - US 10 year

Sector multiple – MedTech Risk premium – MedTech

MedTech coverage earnings Yield - US 10 year

EPS growth vs PE multiples – Biopharma

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

PE multiples vs EPS growth – MedTech

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Patent expiries and exposure, by company

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Aubagio 2.2bn 5% Alprolix 0.6bn 1% Dupixent 20.3bn 33%

Sanofi Fabrazyme 1.1bn 2% Sarclisa 1.0bn 2% Toujeo 1.3bn 2%

Kalydeco 0.6bn 4% Orkambi 0.5bn 3%

Source: Company data, GlobalData, Bloomberg, Visible Alpha, HSBC

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Catalysts calendar & NPV exposure (USDm)

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Catalysts calendar & NPV exposure (USDm)

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Catalysts calendar & NPV exposure (USDm)

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Catalysts calendar & NPV exposure (USDm)

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Equities ● Life Sciences & Healthcare

Catalysts calendar & NPV exposure (USDm)