Executive summary

Overarching approach
Community service – parks and public open spaces
Utilities – stormwater management
Utilities – waste management

Agenda Mobility - Urban roads

Summary
A. Planned projects as per sector submission
B. Observations on planned projects
C. Scenario- based required investment
D. Investment gap sector plans and scenarios
Appendix

1
SUMMARY

Urban roads future infrastructure investment : Executive summary

 Urban road network considered for the future infrastructure assessment corresponds to expressways and arterial roads. This represents ~29k km
(~10% of the total network).

 Current state assessment for urban roads revealed higher city-level utilization with Riyadh having a level of service lower than C, lower road quality
(PCI ~63; ~31% of network requires significant upgrade), and lower level of maintenance spend (~11k vs. 20-60k SAR/km)

 Sector sets ambitious target for improving PCI from current ~63 (average of top 5 cities) to 80 by 2030 for all the expressways and arterial roads
network. These targets are considerably ambitious, given the current status and benchmark references. No other targets are set for the level of
service standards by 2030, which is the main driver of capacity interventions.

 Urban roads sector based on the current plan targets to invest 116 bn SAR in urban roads by 2030. Mostly in ancillary road projects and lighting at 51
bn SAR (~44%; including sidewalks, landscaping and roundabouts), quality works of ~42 (~36%) bn SAR for road maintenance (asphalting) and ~22 Bn
SAR (~19%) for bridges and tunnels, and studies. Of planned projects, only ~26 billion SAR is considered relevant for high-capacity urban roads under
sturdy, calculated as ~10% of asphalting spending (~4 billion), in addition to bridges and tunnels.

 Overall, planned investments are not aligned with current state results since no capacity-related interventions have been identified as part of the
sector’s project budgets. However, planned quality interventions will help close the gap with the current low maintenance expenditure on the urban
road network.

 Applying targets and current population estimates, an estimated investment of SAR 15bn is required till 20301. Generally, there is overinvestment in
quality-related projects and underinvestment in capacity-related investments. The overinvestment mainly comes from large project budgets being
allocated entirely to quality, such as bridges and tunnel projects (22 Bn SAR).
1. Base case scenario

2
 Executive summary
Overarching approach
Community service – parks and public open spaces
Utilities – stormwater management
Utilities – waste management

Agenda Mobility - Urban roads

Summary
A. Planned projects as per sector submission
B. Observations on planned projects
C. Scenario- based required investment
D. Investment gap sector plans and scenarios
Appendix

3
PLANNED PROJECTS

Urban road sub-sector total planned investment of 116.2 Bn SAR

Planned urban road sub-sector project capex by 2030, Bn SAR Key Notes
The largest part of the planned urban
116.16 Detail in the next slide road investments – 43 Bn SAR –
correspond to ancillary projects
Excluded from the gap assessment
including sidewalks, landscaping and
roundabouts.
41.78
Quality works include 41.8 Bn SAR for
road maintenance (asphalting) and
21.9 Bn SAR for bridges and tunnels.
Other planned investments include
42.98 safety works (road lighting projects -
8.25 Bn SAR), and feasibility-related
studies (1.3 Bn SAR).
8.25 The only planned investments that
have been considered for the gap
21.85 assessment are the road asphalting
1.30 projects and the bridges and tunnel
projects as part of the maintenance
Road asphalting Road ancillary Road lighting Bridges and tunnels Studies
Total projects projects projects projects projects
indicator.

Sources: MoMRAH five-year road project portfolio

4
PLANNED PROJECTS

The road asphalting projects that correspond to the network under study
account for 4.2 Bn SAR (~10% of the total asphalting projects)

Planned urban road sub-sector project capex by 2030, Bn SAR Key Notes

Region Project CAPEX (Mn SAR) The urban road network

Riyadh 634.40 considered for the future
Makkah 526.90
infrastructure assessment
corresponds to expressways and
Qassim 606.90
arterial roads.
Madinah -
Eastern Province 827.30
This represents ~29k km (out of
the ~298k km for the total
Al Jawf 170.40
41.78 network).
Tabuk 131.90
Therefore, it can be estimated
Hail 131.00
that around 10% of the
Northern Borders 76.20
expenditure budget will be
Baha 74.60
dedicated to the selected urban
Asir 679.90 road network.
4.18 Jazan 87.70
Najran 230.90
Planned investments for total Planned investments for
network selected network Total 4,178

Sources: MoMRAH five-year road project portfolio, Team analysis

5
PLANNED PROJECTS

Therefore, the total investment for the planned project in the urban road
network under study (expressways and arterial roads) is 26 Bn SAR

Planned urban road sub-sector project capex by 2030, Bn SAR Key Notes

Region Project CAPEX (Mn SAR) Planned investments considered

Riyadh 4,778 are allocated to road asphalting
26.0 projects and bridges and tunnel
Makkah 7,249
projects, accounting for 26 Bn
4.18 Qassim 2,465
SAR for the part network under
Madinah 280
study.
Eastern Province 3,080
Al Jawf 804
Tabuk 988 Almost 50% of the planned
investments are allocated in
21.85 Hail 131
Makkah (28%), and Riyadh
Northern Borders 243
(18%); while Hail (0.5%) and
Baha 75
Baha (0.3%) have the lowest
Asir 3,100 shares
Jazan 2,052
Road asphalting Bridges and Najran 731
Total projects tunnels Total 25,977
projects
Sources: MoMRAH five-year road project portfolio, Team analysis

6
 Executive summary
Overarching approach
Community service – parks and public open spaces
Utilities – stormwater management
Utilities – waste management

Agenda Mobility - Urban roads

Summary
A. Planned projects as per sector submission
B. Observations on planned projects
C. Scenario- based required investment
D. Investment gap sector plans and scenarios
Appendix

7
OBSERVATIONS ON PLANNED PROJECTS

Planned projects observations

• At a city level the utilization is overall higher, with only Riyadh having LoS lower than C, and requiring imminent capacity
Observations interventions
from current
• Potential for enhancing urban road condition as 31% of the network has been identified to require significant maintenance
state
assessment • The PCI in KSA’s five main cities is on average 63.18, on the low side compared to industry standards

• The road asphalting budget does not differentiate between capacity and quality interventions
• The largest part of the planned urban road investments – 43 Bn SAR – correspond to ancillary projects including
sidewalks, landscaping and roundabouts; not a part of the future assessment requirements
• The bridges and tunnels budget is not clear to which extent applies to the totality of the network or just the
Observations
expressways and arterial roads
on planned
projects • At a sector level, no target has been set for the Level of Service standards on the urban road network, which is the main
driver of capacity interventions

8
 Executive summary
Overarching approach
Community service – parks and public open spaces
Utilities – stormwater management
Utilities – waste management

Agenda Mobility - Urban roads

Summary
A. Planned projects as per sector submission
B. Observations on planned projects
C. Scenario- based required investment
D. Investment gap sector plans and scenarios
Appendix

9
SCENARIO- BASED REQUIRED INVESTMENT

A four-step methodology has been followed to forecast the Kingdom’s urban road
investment requirements for both conservative and aspirational scenario

2. Future capacity needs

4. Total investment
1. Demand forecast and expansion 3. Investment ratios
required
requirements

Light vehicles traffic

 Capacity of existing urban road
Based on elasticities for the population,
network will be compared to
tailored to the light vehicles’ behavior forecasted demand
 Planned urban road
infrastructure capacity will be
compared to the projected
demand forecast to assess the
sufficiency
 Capacity will be assessed
Heavy vehicles traffic following the best international
practice for the minimum level of
Based on elasticities for the population,
service (LoS C)
tailored to the heavy vehicles’ behavior
 Expansion investments: Lane
expansions to cope with the
increasing forecasted demand for an
adequate LoS
 Maintenance investments: periodic
maintenance (preventive and O&M)
for each road segment to maintain an
adequate road quality level and
ensure efficient and safe operation
 Total investment required will be
composed of the following elements:
 Additional capacity required for
existing infrastructure to meet
projected demand, using where
available planned investment
estimates or otherwise investment
ratios
 Already planned investments on the
urban road network for the coming
years

10
Source: MOTLS, Road Masterplan, Team Analysis
SCENARIO- BASED REQUIRED INVESTMENT

Capacity investment is calculated based on sector data request and aligned

assumptions

Detailed next

Additional capacity required (km of additional lanes)

A B C
Estimated traffic Estimated capacity New capacity
evolution evolution required Unitary costs
Required
Light and heavy V/C forecast 2024- Additional number
vehicle forecast 2024- 2050 per corridor of lanes and km
1.88 Mn SAR/km of investment
2050 X lane-expansion driven
Based on
Using Highway
Target min LoS C
benchmarked costs
Capacity Manual

Source: Road Master Plan approved unitary costs 11

SCENARIO- BASED REQUIRED INVESTMENT

A. Estimated traffic evolution

Traffic forecast per vehicle type (in Mn AADT, 2023-2050)
99% - Light traffic
1% - Heavy traffic

CAGR (’23-’30) CAGR (’30-’50)

base 1.7% base 0.7%

ambitious 4.2% ambitious 0.5%
118.08 118.67
115.83 116.67
113.75 114.81
111.52 112.65
109.18 110.37
107.97
103.59
99.39 104.88
103.20
101.48
99.67
98.36 98.36
95.77
88.13 94.51
93.27
90.85 92.05
90.70
80.86 87.57

82.00
2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049
Total ambitious traffic Total base traffic

12
Source: MEP, Team Analysis
SCENARIO- BASED REQUIRED INVESTMENT

B. Estimated capacity evolution

Analysis of the evolution of the level of service (Los) with the current infrastructure (2023-2050, base case)

Source: Team Analysis 13

SCENARIO- BASED REQUIRED INVESTMENT
C. Additional capacity required to cope with the minimum level of service of C
Additional km 2024- Additional km 2031-
Amanah
2030 (base case) 2050 (base case)
Riyadh Region Municipality 3,148.3 1,926.2
Makkah Municipality - -
Jeddah Municipality - -
Taif Governorate Municipality - -
Medina Region Municipality - 1,068.9
Qassim Region Municipality - -
Eastern Province Municipality - -
Al-Ahsa Governorate Municipality - -
Hafr Al-Batin Governorate Municipality - -
Asir Region Municipality - -
Tabuk Region Municipality - -
Secretariat Hail - -
Secretariat of the Northern Border Region 100.2 - 100.2
Jazan Region Municipality - -
Najran Region Municipality - -
Al Bahah Region Municipality - -
Al-Jawf Region Municipality - 116.7
Total 3,248.6 3,111.8
Source: Team Analysis
Additional km 2024-
Total additional km
2030 (ambitious case)
5,074.5 5,074.5
- -
- -
- -
1,068.9 1,068.9
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
200.5
- -
- -
- 88.7
116.7 - -
6,360.4 6,432.6
Additional km 2031-
Total additional km
2050 (ambitious case)
3,852.4 8,926.9
- -
- -
- -
- 1,296.7
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
- -
-
5,149.1 11,581.7
14
SCENARIO- BASED REQUIRED INVESTMENT

A total of between 14.6-21.2 Bn SAR and 46.5-60.1 Bn SAR are the required
urban road sub-sector investment by 2030 and 2050 respectively
Total cumulative required investment, Bn SAR
Detailed next

14.6 31.9

2.9
2.6
Base 2.1 2.1
2.4
1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0
case
1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

21.2 38.9
4.2
4.0 3.9
3.0 3.0
2.6
Ambitious 2.5 2.5 2.5
2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3
case 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6

24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
Sources: Team analysis

15
SCENARIO- BASED REQUIRED INVESTMENT

By 2030, quality investment requirements are the most CAPEX-intensive

Total required investment, in Bn SAR, cumulative by 2030

Size of required investment Limited investment Extensive investment

Investments by 2030, base case Comments

Region Capacity Quality Total
Riyadh 5.92 1.92 7.84  By 2030, only capacity required
Makkah - 1.35 1.35 investment in Riyadh, driven by its
current low level of service (D),
Qassim - 0.75 0.75
and high growth in population,
Madinah - 0.64 0.64
with minimal investment
Eastern Province - 1.20 1.20 requirement in Northern Borders
Al Jawf - 0.37 0.37 given higher traffic congestion in
Tabuk - 0.35 0.35
current state
Hail - 0.44 0.44  For remaining regions, most
investment is continued in Quality
Northern Borders 0.19 0.10 0.29 related spending, following
Baha - 0.13 0.13 regional distribution of population
Asir - 0.53 0.53
Jazan - 0.49 0.49
Najran - 0.21 0.21
Total 6.11 8.49 14.60
Sources: Team analysis

16
SCENARIO- BASED REQUIRED INVESTMENT

The interventions driving the long-term investment requirements in urban

roads are maintenance expenditures
Total required investment, in Bn SAR, cumulative by 2050

Size of required investment Limited investment Extensive investment

Investments by 2050, base case Comments

Region Capacity Quality Total
Riyadh 9.54 8.63 18.17  By 2050, more capacity required
Makkah - 5.23 5.23 investments in Riyadh, Madinah,
Qassim - 2.89 2.89
Jouf and Northern Borders, driven
by level of service reaching lower
Madinah 2.01 3.04 5.05
than C, if capacity not increased
Eastern Province - 4.64 4.64  Most of spending is dedicated for
Al Jawf 0.22 1.45 1.67 quality in Riyadh, Makkah and
Tabuk - 1.37 1.37 Eastern Region.
Hail - 1.69 1.69
Northern Borders 0.19 0.41 0.60
Baha - 0.49 0.49
Asir - 2.04 2.04
Jazan - 1.88 1.88
Najran - 0.79 0.79
Total 11.96 34.55 46.51
Sources: Team analysis

17
SCENARIO- BASED REQUIRED INVESTMENT

By 2030, the most CAPEX-intensive interventions are capacity requirements

Total required investment, in Bn SAR, cumulative by 2030

Size of required investment Limited investment Extensive investment

Investments by 2030, ambitious case

Region Capacity Quality Total
Riyadh 9.54 2.26 11.80
Makkah - 1.35 1.35
Qassim - 0.75 0.75
Madinah 2.01 0.86 2.87
Eastern Province - 1.20 1.20
Al Jawf - 0.37 0.37
Tabuk - 0.35 0.35
Hail - 0.44 0.44
Northern Borders 0.38 0.14 0.51
Baha 0.17 0.15 0.31
Asir - 0.53 0.53
Jazan - 0.49 0.49
Najran - 0.21 0.21
Total 12.09 9.10 21.19
Sources: Team analysis

18
SCENARIO- BASED REQUIRED INVESTMENT

The interventions driving the long-term investment requirements in urban roads are
maintenance expenditures, with still an increase in capacity requirements
Total required investment, in Bn SAR, cumulative by 2050

Size of required investment Limited investment Extensive investment

Investments by 2050, ambitious case

Region Capacity Quality Total
Riyadh 16.78 11.39 28.17
Makkah - 5.23 5.23
Qassim - 2.89 2.89
Madinah 4.45 3.84 8.29
Eastern Province - 4.64 4.64
Al Jawf - 1.42 1.42
Tabuk - 1.37 1.37
Hail - 1.69 1.69
Northern Borders 0.38 0.52 0.90
Baha 0.17 0.58 0.75
Asir - 2.04 2.04
Jazan - 1.88 1.88
Najran - 0.79 0.79
Total 21.77 38.29 60.07
Sources: Team analysis

19
 Executive summary
Overarching approach
Community service – parks and public open spaces
Utilities – stormwater management
Utilities – waste management

Agenda Mobility - Urban roads

Summary
A. Planned projects as per sector submission
B. Observations on planned projects
C. Scenario- based required investment
D. Investment gap sector plans and scenarios
Appendix

20
INVESTMENT GAP

A total of between 0 Bn SAR and 20.5-34.1 Bn SAR are the estimated

investment gap for the urban road sub-sector by 2030 and 2050 respectively
Detailed next

Total cumulative investment gap, Bn SAR

20.5
18.5
16.1
14.2
Base 12.2
10.1
case 6.9
8.2
5.6
4.3
3.0
1.7
0.4

34.1
32.5
30.9
27.0
24.7
22.5
20.2
18.0
Ambitious 13.6
15.8
case 8.4
10.6
4.9 6.3
2.2 3.5
0.8

24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
Sources: Team analysis

21
INVESTMENT GAP

By 2030, there is an overinvestment identified in planned quality investments

Investment gap (required investment minus planned investment), in Bn SAR, cumulative by 2030

Size of investment gap No gap Significant gap

Gap by 2030, base case Comments

Region Capacity Quality Total
Riyadh 5.92 -2.86 3.06  By 2030, overall underinvestment
Makkah - -5.89 -5.89 in capacity by ~6 bn SAR and
overinvestment of ~18 bn SAR
Qassim - -1.71 -1.71
Madinah - 0.36 0.36  Most overinvestment is in
Makkah and Riyadh, mainly
Eastern Province - -1.88 -1.88 driven by the budget allocated to
Al Jawf - -0.44 -0.44 bridges and tunnel planned
Tabuk - -0.63 -0.63 projects
Hail - 0.31 0.31
Northern Borders 0.19 -0.14 0.05
Baha - 0.05 0.05
Asir - -2.57 -2.57
Jazan - -1.57 -1.57
Najran - -0.53 -0.53
Total 6.11 -17.49 -11.38
Sources: Team analysis

22
INVESTMENT GAP

Capacity will be the most CAPEX-intensive investments requirement by 2050

Investment gap (required investment minus planned investment), in Bn SAR, cumulative by 2050

Size of investment gap No gap Significant gap

Investments by 2030, base case

Gap by 2050, base case Comments
Region Capacity Quality Total
Riyadh 9.54 3.85 13.39  By 2050, overall no
Makkah - -2.02 -2.02 underinvestment across KSA,
except in Makkah, Asir and Jazan
Qassim - 0.43 0.43
Madinah 2.01 2.76 4.77  Most capacity-related investment
gap is in Riyadh (~9.5 bn SAR out
Eastern Province - 1.56 1.56 of ~12 bn SAR)
Al Jawf 0.22 0.64 0.86
Tabuk - 0.38 0.38
Hail - 1.56 1.56
Northern Borders 0.19 0.17 0.36
Baha - 0.41 0.41
Asir - -1.06 -1.06
Jazan - -0.18 -0.18
Najran - 0.06 0.06
Total 11.96 8.57 20.53
Sources: Team analysis

23
INVESTMENT GAP

By 2030, the gap investment will be driven by capacity-related requirements

Investment gap (required investment minus planned investment), in Bn SAR, cumulative by 2030

Size of investment gap No gap Significant gap

Investments by 2030,Gap
baseby
case
2030, ambitious case
Region Capacity Quality Total
Riyadh 9.54 -2.52 7.02
Makkah - -5.89 -5.89
Qassim - -1.71 -1.71
Madinah 2.01 0.58 2.59
Eastern Province - -1.88 -1.88
Al Jawf - -0.44 -0.44
Tabuk - -0.63 -0.63
Hail - 0.31 0.31
Northern Borders 0.38 -0.11 0.27
Baha 0.17 0.07 0.24
Asir - -2.57 -2.57
Jazan - -1.57 -1.57
Najran - -0.53 -0.53
Total 12.09 -16.88 -4.78
Sources: Team analysis

24
INVESTMENT GAP

In the ambitious case, capacity investments cover around 2/3 of the 2050
requirements
Investment gap (required investment minus planned investment), in Bn SAR, cumulative by 2050

Size of investment gap No gap Significant gap

Gap by 2050, ambitious case

Region Capacity Quality Total
Riyadh 16.78 6.61 23.40
Makkah - -2.02 -2.02
Qassim - 0.43 0.43
Madinah 4.45 3.56 8.01
Eastern Province - 1.56 1.56
Al Jawf - 0.62 0.62
Tabuk - 0.38 0.38
Hail - 1.56 1.56
Northern Borders 0.38 0.28 0.66
Baha 0.17 0.51 0.67
Asir - -1.06 -1.06
Jazan - -0.18 -0.18
Najran - 0.06 0.06
Total 21.77 12.31 34.09
Sources: Team analysis

25