Risk and Uncertainty, September 22, 2023

First practice session R&U - Sets, enumeration and uniform probability

1. A given urn contains n balls numbered from 1 to n. We draw randomly, sequentially (therefore

order is taken into account) and without replacement 2 balls.

(a) Describe the set of all possible draws Ω.

(b) Consider the event A = the two balls have consecutive and increasing numbers. Describe

A and compute Card(A).

(c) Consider the event B = the two balls have consecutive numbers. Describe B and compute

Card(B).

2. A student randomly answers a MCQ ( Multiple Choice Question) test of 4 questions. Each

question has three possible choices of which only one is correct.

(a) Describe Ω, the set of all possible answers to the MCQ and compute Card(Ω).
(b) Let A be the set of completely correct MCQs. Describe A, then compute Card(A).
(c) Let B be the set of completely false MCQs. Describe B, then compute Card(B).
(d) Let C be the set of MCQs where the student has (strictly) more right answers than wrong

answers. Describe C, then compute Card(C).

3. Three messages are transmitted by radio. The transmission can be either correct or perturbed.
We consider the 3 events:

Ai :=the ith message is transmitted correctly, i = 1, 2, 3.

Express the following events using Ai , Aci and ∩, ∪.

A :=all messages are transmitted correctly

B :=at least one message is perturbed

C :=all three messages are perturbed

D :=no more than one message is transmitted correctly

E :=the rst message transmitted correctly is the third in the order of transmission

4. Consider the deck of 52 cards below. Each card is characterized by a rank (Ace, 2, 3, . . . ,

10, Jack, Queen, King) and a suit (Spades , Diamonds, Hearts, Clubs). 5 cards are

drawn simultaneously.
 Describe the following sets and compute their cardinality

(a) Ω, the set of all possible draws

(b) A is the set of draws for which the 5 cards are of the same rank.

(c) B is the set of draws for which the 5 cards are of the same suit.

(d) C is the set of draws for which none of the 5 cards is an Ace.

(e) D is the set of draws for which the 4 suits are obtained.

(f ) E is the set of draws for which at least 3 of the 5 cards are of the same suit.

5. Let (Ω, A, P ) be a probability space. Show the following equalities.

(a) P (A ∩ B c ) = P (A) − P (A ∩ B)
(b) P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
(c) P ((A ∩ B c ) ∪ (Ac ∩ B)) = P (A) + P (B) − 2P (A ∩ B)
(d) P (Ac ∩ B c ) = 1 − P (A) − P (B) + P (A ∩ B)

6. Consider the 52-card deck where each card is characterized by a rank (Ace, 2, 3, . . . , 10,

Jack, Queen, King) and a suit (Spades, Diamonds, Hearts, Clubs). 5 cards are

drawn simultaneously. Describe Ω and dene a probability on it. Compute the probabilities of

the following events.

(a) Obtain at least one Heart.

(b) Obtain a single king and a single Club.

(c) Obtain a straight (sequence of 5 cards in increasing value).

(d) Obtain a straight ush (straight of the same suit).

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