Hypothesis and Experiment 105

several courses of action one of which locates the purse ,

and , thereby , confirms one of the hypotheses .

Causal Hypotheses

Development of similar hypotheses for the purpose of

seeking the causes of certain events is common and of
great value in chemical engineering . In Example No. 2
presented earlier , hypotheses were designated which sug-
gested the cause for the catalyst poisoning . These were
based on examination of preceding events and knowledge
of existing theory , and they led to experiment which
seemed to confirm one of the hypotheses . Any practicing
engineer should recognize this procedure as the type of
reasoning he uses daily in solving operating , design , sales ,
managerial , and routine experimental problems . Hy-
potheses of this type can be termed casual hypotheses
since they seek to establish causal relationships between
events or , more simply , the cause of a certain observed
effect . When confirmed by experiment , these causal rela-
tionships permit rapid solution of many problems in plant
and laboratory . However , because they suggest nothing
but causal relationships , only limited prediction is possible
and the probability for valid generalizations is low .

Creative Hypotheses

The hypothesis that conformed to the facts of catalyst

deactivation in Example 2 was as follows :

" Temperature surges to approximately 1200 ° F , or

above , cause rapid deactivation of the Ni - Kieselguhr cat-
alyst . "

Experiment confirmed the hypothesis and the causal

relation thus established between temperature and catalyst