Dra #1 Concept Note

Program/Project Title
Inclusive Climate Resilience Ac ons for Small Islands Livelihood (INCREASE)

Project/Programme ra onale, objec ves and approach of programme/project (max 100 words)
Coastal communi es and areas are highly vulnerable and directly affected by the nega ve
impacts of climate change as a result of sea level rise, especially for those who live and their
livelihood ac vi es on small islands. The objec ve is to build climate resilience of small island
community and areas in Lombok. The proposed-project will design climate governance pro small
island, increase the community’s adap ve capacity, develop climate resilient infrastructure, and
improve connec vity areas for suppor ng climate resilience measures:1) gender-based climate
smart small island livelihood; 2) provide infrastructure; 3) facilitate diversified climate resilient
income; 4) rehabilita on and restora on small island environmental

Context and baseline

 Climate vulnerabilities and impacts:

West Nusa Tenggara (WNT) is one of the archipelagic provinces in Indonesia, comprising two
major islands, Lombok and Sumbawa, as well as 280 small islands. 38 of these small islands are
inhabited (IKPLHD, 2021). For the island of Lombok, its geographical loca on and posi on among
other islands provide characteris cs of climate, physiography, geology, and dis nc veness of
natural resources including coastal areas. The coastal ecosystem of Lombok Island is dominated
by coral reefs and seagrass areas that surround almost all of its areas, especially in a cluster of
small islands. There are three inhabited small islands in the district of East Lombok, namely Gili
Maringkik, Gili Beleq, and Gili Re. The popula on of Maringkik Small Island Village is around 2,200
people (1,103 men and 1,097 women) with 657 households. Meanwhile, Gili Beleq and Gili Rhe
are included in the Pare Mas Village area with respec ve popula ons: 198 men and 189 women
with 120 households (Gili Beleq) as well as 106 men and 103 women with 66 households (Gili Re).
From an oceanographic perspec ve, coastal communi es and areas are highly vulnerable and
directly affected by the nega ve impacts of climate change as a result of sea level rise (Rositasari
et al., 2011), especially for those who live and their livelihood ac vi es on small islands (Ministry
of Environment-GTz-WWF, 2010). Study of Martono (2017) showed the paCern of sea level
anomalies in the southern waters of Lombok Island during June-August 2016 and September-
November 2016. In the June-August 2016 period, the sea level anomaly reached 20 cm (June
2016) and decreased to 11 cm (July 2016) as well as increased to 14 cm (August 2016). In the
September-November 2016 period, the average sea level anomaly was around 22 cm (September
2016 and October 2016) and decreased to 14 cm (November 2016). Downscaled of satellite
al metry data (Ministry of Environment-GTz-WWF, 2010) reported that the rate of sea level rise
in the southern part of Lombok Island reached 4.5 cm per decade or higher than the coast in the
northern part of Lombok Island (3.5 cm per decade). This indicates that the oceanographic
dynamics in the southern part are more dynamic than the northern part of Lombok Island
because the southern coast is open sea overlooking the Indian Ocean.
Sea level rise is closely related to an increase in sea temperature as one of the parameters of
climate change (Salsabila et al, 2022). The mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the southern
Lombok Strait during 2004-2018 ranged from 25.69-29.80°C with the highest SST value of 29.80°C
occurring in April and the lowest 25.69°C in August. The annual mean sea surface temperature
ranged from 27.32-28.58°C with the highest SST value of 28.58°C in 2010 and the lowest of
27.32°C in 2018 (Prima et al., 2021). According to NOAA, La Nina occurred in June-December
2010 as well as El Nino in the last 3 months on 2018 and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Sea
surface temperature variability in the southern part of Lombok Island is more likely to be
influenced by the IOD than the El Nino-Southern Oscilla on. The opposite condi on occurs in the
northern sea of Lombok Island (Prima et al., 2021). Many studies have projected that sea surface
temperatures in Lombok Sea will con nue to increase as consequences of changes in ocean
climate parameters due to global warming, with implica ons for sea level rise. Obviously, the
phenomenon of sea level rise and sea surface temperature will pose a vulnerability for coastal
areas and communi es, especially on small islands.
Based on IPCC models, the Ministry of Environment-GTz-WWF (2010) has projected a 3oC-
3.5 C increase in sea surface temperature by 2100. Assuming that 1oC increase in sea surface
o

temperature is equivalent to 20 cm increase in sea level, the sea level rise by 2100 ranges from
60-70 cm. On the South Coast of Lombok Island, the projected sea level rise in 2050 based on
satellite al metry data with baseline data in 2000 ranges from 22.5-25 cm and increases to 32-
40 cm in 2080.The phenomenon of sea level rise will adversely affect community livelihoods and
the sustainability of coastal ecosystem service func ons. Some other adverse effects are the
erosion or retreat of the coastline, inunda on of lowlands, reduced residen al land, dal flooding
of produc ve lands, and freshwater pollu on (Umar et al, 2019). To some extent, sea level rise
according to Nandini (2011) will submerge a number of small islands on Lombok Island and result
in the loss of small island ecosystems. The poten al inunda on of the coastal areas of Lombok
Island is es mated to reach an area of around 1,215.86 hectares (2030) and increase to 1,590.56
hectares (2080) to 1,750.56 hectares (2100) in the event of dal events and sea level rise. For the
Jerowaru-Lombok Timur sub-district, the area of submergence due to dal events and sea level
rise is projected to con nue to increase. This is es mated to reach 376.36 hectares (2030), 464.9
hectares (2080), and 523.28 hectares (2100) respec vely.
The frequency of dal flooding due to sea level rise has increased in recent years, resul ng in
the adverse impacts on the livelihoods of people living on small islands in the southern part of
East Lombok. At the end of 2021, dozens of houses in Village of Maringkik Island were reportedly
submerged due to dal flooding (beritanusra.com, 5/12/21). In mid-April 2024, dal floods hit
the bridge, the sole access point to and from Maringkik Island. This resulted in the collapse of the
bridge, causing significant disrup on to the local community’s livelihood ac vi es (ANTARA,
12/04/24). Addi onally, the community is vulnerable to the effects of the dry season as nega ve
impact of climate change, which o en leads to a shortage of clean water. The residents of small
islands (Maringkik Island, Gili Beleq, and Gili Re) are required to expend significant financial
resources to fulfil their clean water needs. The water crisis has yet to be resolved (Mongabay,
20/05/19).

 GHG Emissions Profile

AKSARA-BAPPENAS data (hCps://pprk.bappenas.go.id/aksara/aksara_dashboard_provinsi/#)
indicated that the average total poten al reduc on in greenhouse gas emissions in the West Nusa
Tenggara areas over the past decade (2014-2023) is 18.36 per cent. The highest poten al
reduc on was observed in 2015, at 84.88 per cent compared to the previous year, while the
lowest was recorded in 2021, at 0.09 per cent rather than the previous year. In 2023, the total
cumula ve emission reduc on poten al reached 2.444 million tonnes of CO2e, with
contribu ons from four sectors: agriculture (93.96%), coastal marine (3.97%), forest and land
(1.92%), as well as energy (0.14%). Meanwhile, three other sectors contributed 0% to the total.

 Mitigation and Adaptation Need

The prospec ve interven on to be addressed for small island areas and communi es by this
proposed project focus on addressing both mi ga on and adapta on to build inclusive climate
resilience. Mi ga on needs are: 1) Coastal Ecosystem Restora on by protec ng and restoring
coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, seagrasses, and coral reefs to enhance carbon
sequestra on and storage; 2) provide climate resilient public infrastructure, par cularly in
enabling the accessibility of and from small islands, which are resistant to the impact of sea waves
as well as provide a natural barrier against coastal erosion and abrasion; 3) Waste Management
Improvements by implemen ng waste reduc on, recycling, and compos ng programs can
minimize methane emissions from landfills as well as reduce the carbon footprint of waste
management prac ces. For adapta on needs are: 1) Coastal Infrastructure Resilience by
providing coastal infrastructure, including sea walls, breakwaters, and drainage systems, which
can protect coastal communi es from the adverse effects of rising sea levels, abrasion, and
flooding. Addi onally, providing clean water facili es and infrastructure to address the clean
water crisis-related problem, especially during the dry season; 2) Community Early Warning
Systems: establish early warning systems and emergency preparedness plans to assist coastal
and small island communi es in an cipa ng and responding to climate-related hazards, such as
abrasion and extreme weather events; 3) Climate Resilient Livelihoods by introducing and
promo ng climate-smart livelihood prac ces according to local situa ons and condi ons with
aim to increase food security and household income in order to enable communi es for beCer
cope with the impacts of climate change; 4) Increasing the adap ve capacity of communi es by
providing training, educa on, and technical assistance on climate change adapta on strategies,
disaster risk reduc on, and sustainable resource management through local communi es
empowerment to build resilience and adapt to changing environmental condi ons; 5) Integrated
Coastal Zone Management by implemen ng an integrated coastal zone management approach
that considers the interconnectedness between land and marine ecosystems to support inclusive
sustainable development while protec ng coastal communi es, especially on small islands and
biodiversity.

The proposed project is aligned with na onal, provincial, and district priori es such as:
Na onal Mid-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2020-2024): 1. Reduced livelihood vulnerabili es
due to climate change and reducing GHG emissions by 24% by 2024. 2. Development of
infrastructure to support economic empowerment and basic services with the priority program
to provide economic infrastructure to improve regional connec vity with priority ac vi es. 3.
Strengthening of economic resilience for quality growth that includes added value, employment,
investment, strengthening entrepreneurship and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
The NTB Provincial Mid-Term Development Plan (RPJMD) 2020-2024: 1. Strengthening
infrastructure development and regional connec vity by up to 84.47% 2. Through poverty
reduc on, reducing inequality, exclusive economic growth based on agriculture, tourism, and
industrializa on. One of the achievement targets is to increase Small and Medium Industries up
to 3.55% by 2023.
The East Lombok District Mid-Term Development Plan (RPJMD) 2020-2024: 1. Build and improve
regional infrastructure in sectors of transporta on, clean water, sanita on and housing 2. Grow
the community's economy by synergy of func ons of agriculture, trade, fisheries, marine and
tourism.

Main root causes and barriers that the proposed-Project to be addressed:

a) Social and Gender Inequality: i) limited access to resources, decision-making processes, and
opportuni es for women and marginalized groups; ii) tradi onal gender roles and societal norms
that may hinder women's par cipa on in climate resilience ini a ves.
b) Fiscal and Financial Constraints: i) limited financial resources at the local and community levels
to invest in climate resilience measures; ii) lack of access to affordable financing mechanisms for
small-scale inclusive climate resilience and adapta on ac on.
c) Regulatory and Ins tu onal Challenges: i) inadequate legal frameworks and policies related to
climate change adapta on and disaster risk management; ii) weak ins tu onal capacity and
coordina on among government agencies, NGOs, and community organiza ons.
d) Technological and Ecological Limita ons: i) limited availability and accessibility of appropriate
technologies for climate resilience, such as weather forecas ng systems, early warning systems,
and sustainable livelihood prac ces; ii) degrada on of natural ecosystems, including coral reefs,
mangroves, and forests, which are cri cal for coastal protec on and biodiversity conserva on.
e) Community Knowledge and Awareness Gaps: i) lack of awareness and understanding of climate
change impacts and adapta on strategies among local communi es; ii) limited capacity for
community-based monitoring, adapta on planning, and implementa on.
f) Infrastructure Vulnerability: i) Inadequate infrastructure and housing that are suscep ble to
climate-related hazards such as sea-level rise, abrasion, and flooding; ii) Poorly designed and
maintained infrastructure that exacerbates vulnerability to climate risks.
g) Market and Economic Challenges: i) dependence on climate-sensi ve livelihoods such as
agriculture, fisheries, and tourism, which are vulnerable to climate variability and extreme
weather events; ii) Limited access to markets, value chains, and alterna ve livelihood op ons for
diversifica on.

Project/Programme descrip on
The main focus of this proposed project is adapta on ac vi es to improve adap ve capacity and
enhance the resilience of local communi es to climate change impacts, ul mately safeguarding
their livelihoods and well-being.
Following are the expected set of components/outputs and subcomponents/ac vi es to address
the above barriers iden fied that will lead to the expected outcomes.
1. Increasing adaptive capacity of communities
‒ Providing training and technical assistance programs on climate resilience techniques and
sustainable livelihoods.
‒ Empowering local communities to manage and adapt to climate change impacts.
‒ Facilitating local communities on financial management and entrepreneurship
2. Community Engagement and Participation
‒ Establishing inclusive platforms for community engagement
‒ Conducting regular consultations with local communities, including marginalized groups
and women.
‒ Integrating local knowledge and practices into decision-making processes.
3. Policy and Regulatory Frameworks
‒ Advocating for policies that prioritize inclusive climate resilience.
‒ Ensuring gender-responsive and socially inclusive regulations.
‒ Streamlining permitting processes for eco-friendly initiatives.
4. Technogical and Infrastructure Innovation
‒ Introducing appropriate technologies for climate adaptation and mitigation.
‒ Promoting renewable energy solutions and sustainable livelihood practices.
‒ Providing climate resilient public infrastructure (access road, water and sanitation hygienic
etc)
‒ Facilitating access to climate information and early warning systems
5. Financial Mechanism
‒ Establishing microfinance programs for small-scale entrepreneurs.
‒ Creating community-based insurance schemes for climate-related risks.
‒ Initiating inclusive climate financing mechanism
6. Ecological Restoration and Conservation
‒ Implementing ecosystem-based adaptation strategies.
‒ Restoring mangroves, coral reefs, and other coastal ecosystems.
‒ Promoting sustainable land management practices to prevent erosion and soil
degradation
7. Institutional Support
‒ Fostering partnerships between government agencies, NGOs, and local communities.
‒ Building the capacity of local institutions to implement and monitor climate resilience
initiatives.
8. Gender Mainstreaming
‒ Integrating gender considerations into all aspects of project planning and implementation.
‒ Promoting women's leadership and participation in decision-making processes.
‒ Providing support for women's economic empowerment and access to resources.
9. Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning
‒ Establish monitoring systems to track key indicators related to social, gender, fiscal,
regulatory, technological, financial, ecological, and institutional aspects.
‒ Conduct regular surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions to gather qualitative
data on community perceptions and experiences.
‒ Conduct baseline assessments to establish a benchmark for measuring progress and
impact.
‒ Implementation quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the effectiveness of
climate resilience interventions.
‒ Participatory approaches to involve stakeholders in the evaluation process and gather
diverse perspectives.
‒ Facilitate regular knowledge-sharing workshops and peer learning exchanges.
‒ Document and disseminate best practices, lessons learned, and success stories.
‒ Provide training and capacity-building support to stakeholders on MEL methodologies and
tools
Climate Rational-based Theory of Change “Inclusive Climate Resilience Action for Small Islands Livelihood” (INCREASE)

HIGHLY CLIMATE VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL COMMUNITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL

INCREASED DECREASING of ECOSYSTEM SERVICES & POVERTY of COASTAL

GHG EMISSIONS COASTAL HABITAT CARRYING CAPACITIES COMMUNITIES

MALL-ADAPTATION ACTIONs: Degradation of Mangrove, Destructive Fishing,

LOW SOCIO-ECONOMIC
AFFECTED SMALL ISLANDs COMMUNITIES To NEGATIVE IMPACT CLIMATE CHANGE
COMMUNITY

LIMITED ACCESS GENDER

TO FINANCIAL INEQUALITY AND DAMAGED SETTLEMENTs DESTRUCTED COASTAL REDUCING OF
INSTITUTION SOCIAL & INFRASTRUCTURE ENVIRONMENTAL HOUSEHOLDs INCOME
EXCLUSION
ISSUE
LOW QUALITY OF
GOVERNANCE
POOR INFRA- TIDAL FLOODING & COASTLINE CHANGING, LOSS TIME OF FISHING
REDUCED FISH CATCH
STRUCTURE ABRASION SEAWATER INTRUSION
JOBLESS AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
LOW EDUCATION
LEVEL INCREASED INCREASED UNPREDICTABLE INCREASED SEA
PRECIPITATION EXTREME WEATHER RISING SEA LEVEL CURRENTs
Climate Driver Climate Driver Climate Driver Climate Driver

POORLY REMOTE AREAS SITUATIONs

Non-climate Driver INCREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
Climate Change