Institutional Equities

Cement Sector
23 February, 2022

Cautiously turning positive; Stocks adequately pricing Mangesh Bhadang

(Research Analyst)
in earnings pressure mangesh.bhadang@nirmalbang.com
We have had ‘Neutral’ view on the cement sector since March’21 as we believed that higher +91-22-6273 8068
EV/EBITDA multiples were neglecting the increased supply and possibility of increase in input
costs from lower levels. While the concerns around increased supply and costs still persist,
we believe that stocks are adequately factoring in near term earnings pressure. Many cement
stocks are down more than 15-25% over the past 1-3 months. (1) Weak 3QFY22 earnings (2)
incessant input cost pressures (3) geo-political tensions leading to rise in crude prices (4)
lower-than-expected demand growth in various regions and (5) loss of pricing power due to
increased competitive intensity are key reasons for the cement sector’s underperformance.
Sector Update and 3QFY22 result review

While we do believe that input cost pressures are likely to sustain for a prolonged period
compared to our earlier expectation, demand is better while pricing power will make a
comeback soon given the busy season. EBITDA margins likely bottomed out in 3QFY22 and
despite further cost pressures, we do not expect EBITDA margins to fall substantially below
those levels as we expect improvement in pricing. In this note, we have rolled forward our
valuations by 6 months to FY24 from Sept’23 earlier. We have also fine-tuned our estimates to
factor in increased cost pressures. Given the relatively lower earnings growth expectations
and higher competitive intensity in the eastern region, we have cut our target multiples on
various stocks by 10-15%. Despite this, given the sharp fall in cement stocks in recent months,
we now have 10-50% upside for stocks under our coverage and hence we upgrade our view on
the sector from ‘Neutral’ to ‘Positive’. The reason we are cautiously positive on the sector is
largely because of current geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which if further
escalates can inflate commodity costs further and thus affect margins. Post revision in our
ratings, we now have 11 Buys and 1 Accumulate rating under our coverage. Our top picks in
the sector are Ultratech, Birla Corp, JK Cement, Nuvoco Vistas, JK Lakshmi Cement and Sagar
Cement.
Demand growth is lower due to temporary factors: 3QFY22 cement demand was soft on account of: (1)
extended monsoon in various regions (2) sand availability issues in East (3) delay in demand pick-up post
Diwali and (4) pre-election demand softening in key states of Uttar Pradesh and Punjab and (5) weak rural
offtake. 4QFY22 cement demand is likely to be lower on YoY basis as last year’s base was very high.
Nevertheless, the industry has seen ~12% demand growth in 9MFY22 and we expect FY22 demand to be
8-9% higher than FY21. FY23 can witness 7-8% demand growth, which is higher than our earlier
expectation of 6-7% growth.
Cement pricing likely to catch up with costs: As on 3QFY22, operating costs/mt for the cement sector
was up by Rs658/mt on YoY basis. We expect another Rs150-200/mt increase in operating costs in
4QFY22, resulting in overall cost increase of ~Rs900/mt. Cement industry needs ~Rs45/bag increase in
cement prices to pass on the full impact of increased prices. We believe that out of this, Rs10-15/bag
increase will happen in 4QFY22 and another Rs15-20/bag increase can be expected in 1QFY23. The entire
increase in costs may not be passed on to the customers, but these hikes will be sufficient to lift margins
from 3QFY22 levels. Various efficiency improvement measures announced by the companies, including
increased usage of WHRS, alternative fuel, higher blending and increased rail dispatches are likely to
improve the cost structure further. The industry will optimise the fuel costs through higher local coal
sourcing (higher purchases through e-auction and also by increasing captive coal mine output), increased
petcoke usage and higher use of alternative fuels.
East is only region where pricing volatility will be higher: Based on expected capacity additions in
various regions, we believe that East is the only region where supply growth exceeds demand growth
sharply. Competition for higher market share in the region is likely to keep pricing volatile and hence we
have cut multiples of companies with higher exposure to the Eastern region. The region, despite higher
supply also has higher growth rates and hence we expect higher demand to result in better pricing power
and prices will make a comeback from current unremunerative levels. Demand-supply dynamics/pricing
volatility is likely to be favourable for the rest of the regions.
Valuations have come off, making risk-reward favourable: The recent fall in cement stock prices have
made valuations attractive even though earnings expectations are depressed. We are building in 8%
revenue CAGR and 12% EBITDA CAGR for our cement coverage. Our top picks in the sector are Ultratech,
Birla Corp, JK Cement, Nuvoco Vistas, JK Lakshmi Cement and Sagar Cement.
Key Risks: (1) geopolitical tensions leading to higher commodity prices like crude and coal (2) increased
competitive intensity resulting in weak pricing.
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 1: Summary of changes to our ratings, target price and target multiples
Company name Old rating New rating Old TP New TP Old EV/E multiple New EV/E multiple
ACC Accumulate Buy 2,430 2,629 10.0 10.0
Ambuja Cement Accumulate Accumulate 355 367 12.0 12.0
Birla Corporation Buy Buy 1,750 1,652 8.0 7.0
Heidelberg Cement Buy Buy 260 253 8.0 7.0
JK Cement Accumulate Buy 3,632 3,865 13.5 13.5
JK Lakshmi Cement Buy Buy 675 628 7.0 6.0
Nuvoco Vistas Buy Buy 565 535 11.0 10.0
Sagar Cements Buy Buy 333 368 8.0 8.0
Shree Cements Accumulate Buy 27,293 29,170 18.0 16.0
Star Cement Buy Buy 116 110 8.0 7.0
The Ramco Cements Buy Buy 1,090 1,022 13.5 12.0
Ultratech Cements Buy Buy 9,129 8,735 15.0 13.5
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 2: Upside for our coverage universe

60.0
53.3 52.9 52.3
50.0 45.3

40.0
33.0
30.1 28.7
30.0 24.9
22.7 21.8
19.5
20.0
9.4
10.0

-
BCORP

STRCEM
SGC

NVCL

SRCM
ACC
JKLC

JKCE

TRCL

ACEM
UTCEM

HEIM

Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 3: EVG ratio of cement stocks

Company CMP (Rs) FY24E EV/EBITDA EBITDA 3yrs CAGR (FY21-24) EVG ratio
ACC 2,158 7.8 17.61 0.44
Ambuja Cement 335 12.0 13.39 0.90
Birla Corporation 1,085 4.9 13.28 0.37
Heidelberg Cement 197 5.1 9.93 0.51
JK Cement 2,907 10.4 15.15 0.69
JK Lakshmi Cement 432 4.4 7.26 0.61
Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Ltd 350 7.0 14.19 0.50
Sagar Cements 240 5.5 12.56 0.44
Shree Cement 24,400 13.6 15.06 0.90
Star Cement 90 6.8 13.89 0.49
The Ramco Cements 818 9.8 11.36 0.86
Ultratech Cement 6,715 10.7 15.51 0.69
Source: Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

2 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 4: Financial and Operational Summary of coverage universe
Revenue (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs mn) PAT (Rs mn) EPS (Rs.)
Company Name
FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E
ACC 1,59,867 1,74,368 1,88,392 29,354 35,279 38,265 19,099 22,960 23,958 101.7 122.3 127.6
Ambuja Cement 1,39,549 1,54,913 1,65,747 32,006 37,457 38,583 19,731 22,726 22,932 9.9 11.4 11.5
Birla Corporation 75,349 88,987 1,00,103 11,502 16,260 19,442 4,165 7,544 10,061 54.1 98.0 130.7
Heidelberg Cement 23,372 26,893 29,603 4,526 5,923 6,731 2,563 3,767 4,551 11.3 16.6 20.0
JK Cement 76,010 84,377 1,00,214 15,601 19,449 23,114 7,999 10,296 12,318 103.5 133.3 159.4
JK Lakshmi Cement 49,382 51,956 55,152 7,700 8,784 9,745 3,933 4,817 5,586 33.4 40.9 47.5
Nuvoco Vistas 86,323 98,762 1,08,458 12,806 19,248 21,743 (1,022) 5,998 7,336 (2.9) 16.8 20.5
Sagar Cements 16,972 21,901 23,898 3,478 5,259 5,711 1,435 2,478 2,838 12.2 21.1 24.2
Shree Cements 1,46,468 1,69,483 1,97,960 41,979 51,248 60,242 22,871 28,873 35,075 633.8 800.2 972.1
Star Cement 22,149 24,999 27,615 3,362 4,031 4,914 1,953 2,451 3,050 4.5 4.7 7.4
The Ramco Cements 60,364 72,421 79,242 13,431 19,001 21,376 5,813 9,366 11,107 24.7 39.8 47.1
Ultratech Cements 5,38,216 6,07,389 6,84,281 1,24,976 1,63,237 1,78,271 63,033 94,696 1,05,696 217.7 327.0 365.0

Sales Volume (mn mt) Realization (Rs./mt) Operating Costs (Rs./mt) EBITDA (Rs./mt)
Company Name
FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E
ACC 28.8 30.9 32.7 5,056 5,157 5,260 4,524 4,506 4,588 1,017 1,143 1,169
Ambuja Cement 27.0 29.5 31.2 5,081 5,183 5,235 3,976 3,984 4,069 1,183 1,271 1,235
Birla Corporation 14.7 16.8 18.5 5,075 5,202 5,306 4,345 4,324 4,368 783 967 1,053
Heidelberg Cement 4.9 5.5 6.0 4,780 4,867 4,961 3,854 3,795 3,833 926 1,072 1,128
JK Cement 13.8 15.0 17.6 5,494 5,636 5,683 4,366 4,337 4,372 1,128 1,299 1,311
JK Lakshmi Cement 10.3 10.8 11.4 4,796 4,806 4,859 4,048 3,993 4,000 748 813 858
Nuvoco Vistas 18.0 19.6 21.0 4,786 5,038 5,169 4,076 4,056 4,133 710 982 1,036
Sagar Cements 3.8 4.9 5.4 4,449 4,458 4,457 3,537 3,388 3,392 912 1,071 1,065
Shree Cements 29.3 33.6 39.0 4,907 4,956 5,005 3,571 3,514 3,529 1,435 1,523 1,544
Star Cement 2.6 3.3 3.8 6,505 6,635 6,635 5,641 5,576 5,519 1,009 1,072 1,195
The Ramco Cements 11.2 13.2 14.4 5,402 5,492 5,514 4,200 4,051 4,026 1,202 1,441 1,487
Ultratech Cements 94.7 105.0 118.5 5,683 5,785 5,776 4,363 4,230 4,271 1,320 1,555 1,505

RoCE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/MT (x) P/E (x)

Company Name
FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY22E FY23E FY24E
ACC 17.0 18.0 17.0 11.4 9.0 7.8 133.7 121.7 100.0 21.2 17.7 16.9
Ambuja Cement 11.7 12.7 12.2 15.0 12.6 12.0 205.0 192.1 188.8 33.7 29.3 29.0
Birla Corporation 6.7 10.0 11.9 9.8 6.5 4.9 72.9 68.9 62.4 20.1 11.1 8.3
Heidelberg Cement 17.4 22.2 23.5 9.1 6.5 5.1 87.4 81.1 72.8 17.4 11.9 9.8
JK Cement 12.6 14.1 14.5 15.9 12.9 10.4 196.5 199.3 155.3 28.1 21.8 18.2
JK Lakshmi Cement 15.3 16.1 16.1 6.7 5.5 4.4 49.8 46.4 35.0 12.9 10.6 9.1
Nuvoco Vistas 5.4 8.1 8.7 13.8 8.7 7.0 108.8 95.8 83.9 NA 20.8 17.0
Sagar Cements 10.2 14.1 14.5 10.4 6.5 5.5 58.4 55.3 51.2 19.7 11.4 9.9
Shree Cements 17.8 20.0 21.3 20.5 16.4 13.6 244.9 225.3 205.2 38.5 30.5 25.1
Star Cement 11.6 12.7 14.1 9.6 8.2 6.8 75.0 77.4 78.4 19.7 18.9 12.1
The Ramco Cements 9.6 13.2 14.8 17.0 11.6 9.8 154.0 141.9 134.5 33.2 20.6 17.4
Ultratech Cements 12.4 16.3 16.3 16.4 12.2 10.7 224.0 195.2 187.5 30.9 20.5 18.4

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

3 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 5: Stock Performance
Company Name CMP (Rs) 1Week (%) 1 Month (%) 3 Month (%) 6 Month (%) 1 Year (%)
ACC Ltd 2,165 (3.1) (2.3) (8.8) (5.5) 27.4
Ambuja Cements Ltd 337 (7.2) (8.5) (13.2) (13.9) 26.4
Birla Corp Ltd 1,081 (8.1) (26.2) (19.9) (17.7) 26.8
Dalmia Bharat Ltd 1,686 (9.1) (13.6) (13.2) (13.7) 18.3
Grasim Industries Ltd 1,684 (1.6) (6.0) (5.3) 13.4 37.2
Heidelbergcement India Ltd 198 (3.0) (13.5) (14.9) (22.1) (12.2)
India Cements Ltd 208 (0.9) (8.9) 6.4 23.9 28.9
Jk Cement Ltd 2,911 (7.6) (14.3) (13.8) (6.5) 7.6
Jk Lakshmi Cement Ltd 432 (10.2) (26.8) (30.8) (38.1) 17.8
Orient Cement Ltd 150 (7.7) (11.7) (4.6) (1.0) 67.0
Prism Johnson Ltd 118 (3.7) (20.1) (3.6) (5.9) 7.5
Sagar Cements Ltd 238 (6.7) (10.7) (10.4) (19.0) 77.7
Sanghi Industries Ltd 47 (12.7) (20.6) (22.4) (29.5) 21.2
Shree Cement Ltd 24,394 (2.1) (2.6) (8.3) (7.2) (10.0)
Star Cement Ltd 90 (3.2) (6.1) (6.7) (22.6) (9.4)
Ramco Cements Ltd/The 823 (6.6) (12.5) (16.8) (14.1) (12.9)
Ultratech Cement Ltd 6,750 (7.4) (8.3) (11.8) (9.9) 9.3
Source: Bloomberg, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

4 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities
3QFY22 results review
Most cement companies reported lower-than-expected numbers for 3QFY22, owing to a sharp uptick in
operating costs, driven largely by power & fuel costs. Demand growth in 3QFY22 was weak as post Diwali
festival demand recovery was absent this time around. Multiple reasons like extended monsoon, sand
unavailability, elections in few states and lower government capex resulted in weak demand across most
regions. Input cost pressures were evident as both imported coal and petcoke prices increased sharply and
the industry tried to pass on these increased costs through price hikes in Oct’21. However, the price hikes
did not last long as demand was weak and cement prices started correcting from Nov’21 till the end of
Dec’21. In fact, the exit prices of Dec’21 were lower than Sept’21 prices. At the same time, most
companies had exhausted their low-cost fuel inventory, and the full impact of higher fuel costs was felt
during the quarter. Most companies reported 40-50% YoY increase in power & fuel costs, which was the
key cost item impacting margins.

The sector (aggregate for 16 companies) reported its lowest EBITDA margin in the last 12 quarters at
16.7%, down 468bps QoQ and 716bps YoY. Aggregate volume at 69.7mn mt declined by 2.6% YoY.
Aggregate revenue for the sector increased by just 4% YoY, driven by 7% YoY growth in realization.
Operating expenses increased by 14% YoY on an absolute basis and operating cost/mt increased by 17%
YoY. Higher power & fuel and other expenses were key reasons for this sharp uptick in operating cost.
Consequently, EBITDA/mt came in at Rs896, down 25% YoY and 21% QoQ. Aggregate PAT declined by
27% YoY as both other income and interest costs were lower on YoY basis. Within our coverage, only JK
Cement reported EBITDA which was higher than our estimate whereas rest of the companies reported 10-
35% lower EBITDA. Ramco, Heidelberg, Nuvoco and Sagar Cements reported sharp drop of more than
25% compared to our EBITDA estimates. Results of companies with higher exposure to East and South
regions were much worse compared to companies with higher exposure to North and West. Demand in
East declined by 16% YoY and as a result pressure on realizations was much higher in that region.

Exhibit 6: Actual vs estimates (3QFY22)

EBITDA (Rs mn) Actual Estimates Act vs Est BBG est Act vs BBG
ACC 5,551 6,868 -19.2% 7,040 -21.2%
ACEM 5,679 6,962 -18.4% 6,987 -18.7%
BCORP 2,225 2,457 -9.5% 2,467 -9.8%
HEIM 684 978 -30.0% 1,078 -36.5%
JKCE 3,708 3,277 13.1% 3,663 1.2%
JKLC 1,464 1,538 -4.8% 1,609 -9.0%
NVCL 2,269 3,196 -29.0% 3,797 -40.2%
SGC 463 622 -25.6% 542 -14.6%
SRCM 8,255 9,053 -8.8% 8,907 -7.3%
STRCEM 675 778 -13.3% 842 -19.8%
TRCL 2,309 3,620 -36.2% 3,057 -24.5%
UTCEM 24,194 26,289 -8.0% 27,348 -11.5%
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

5 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 7: Summary of 3QFY22 results

Company Parameter (Rsmn) 3QFY21 2QFY22 3QFY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Key Quarterly Takeaways (Capex plans)
Volumes (mn mt) 7.71 6.57 7.49 (2.9) 14.0
The company has already commissioned 1.4mn mt Sindri GU at
Realizations (Rs/mt) 5,028 5,320 5,283 5.1 (0.7)
Jharkhand. Another brownfield unit at Tikaria, (UP) is on the verge of
EBITDA/mt (Rs) 908 1,083 741 (18.4) (31.6) completion. Its greenfield integrated unit at Ametha (MP), comprising
2.7mn mt clinker and 1mn mt grinding unit will be commissioned by
ACC Ltd.
Sept’22. The associated greenfield grinding unit at SalaiBanwa (UP)
Net Sales 41,447 37,489 42,258 2.0 12.7 with 2.2mn mt capacity will be operational by 1Q or 2Q of CY23. The
company plans to reach 45- 50mn mt capacity over the next three years
EBITDA 7,001 7,113 5,551 (20.7) (22.0)
from the current level of 36-37mnmt.
Adj. PAT 4,639 4,490 2,800 (39.6) (37.6)
Volumes (mn mt) 7.01 6.20 7.16 2.1 15.5
The 3mn mt clinker plant at MarwarMundwa (Rajasthan) was
Realizations (Rs/mt) 5,014 5,221 5,217 4.0 (0.1) commissioned in Sept’21 and the 1.8mn mt grinding unit is likely to be
commissioned very soon at the same location. The company is also
EBITDA/mt (Rs) 1,095 1,134 793 (27.6) (30.1)
Ambuja looking at brownfield grinding unit of 1.5mn mt at Ropar in Punjab which
Cements will come up by CY23. The management has indicated additional
Ltd. volumes of 5mn mt through northern clinker expansion over next 2
Net Sales 35,151 32,373 37,351 6.3 15.4
years. WHRS projects of 54MW Bhatpara, Darlaghat and
EBITDA 7,678 7,032 5,679 (26.0) (19.2) MarwarMundwah will be commissioned in a phased manner in CY22,
leading to further improvement in efficiency.
Adj. PAT 4,971 4,413 2,517 (49.4) (43.0)
Volumes (mn mt) 3.55 3.27 3.35 (5.6) 2.4
Realizations (Rs/mt) 4,770 4,878 4,934 3.4 1.2
RCCP, a subsidiary of BCORP, fired the kiln at its new plant at
EBITDA/mt (Rs) 1,021 817 664 (34.9) (18.8) Mukutban, Maharshtra in January 2022. The total capacity of this
Birla
cement plant is 3.9mn mt and with commissioning of this plant, the
Corporation
company’s total capacity stands increased to 20mn mt. This is the
Ltd.
Net Sales 17,766 16,978 17,501 (1.5) 3.1 company’s fourth integrated unit and it also includes captive power
plant, which has also been commissioned.
EBITDA 3,624 2,673 2,225 (38.6) (16.8)
Adj. PAT 1,484 856 535 (64.0) (37.5)
Volumes (mn mt) 1.27 1.23 1.13 (11.1) (8.4)
5.5MW / 15MW solar power in Narsingarh/ Jhansi are in the final stage
Realizations (Rs/mt) 4,691 4,683 4,827 2.9 3.1
and are expected to start operations from early Mar’22. Capacity
EBITDA/mt (Rs) 947 946 607 (35.9) (35.9) utilization stood at 75% in 3QFY22 and 0.5mn mt cement
Heidelberg
debottlenecking is expected in FY22-23. Greenfield expansion in
Cement
Gujarat is getting delayed due to environment clearance issue, which
India Ltd.
Net Sales 5,953 5,765 5,445 (8.5) (5.5) might take another 1-1.5 years to come. During FY21-22, total capex
will be ~Rs750mn, out of which, the company has already spent Rs500-
EBITDA 1,202 1,165 684 (43.1) (41.2)
550mn during 9MFY22.
Adj. PAT 636 596 304 (52.2) (48.9)
Volumes (mn mt) 3.17 3.33 3.32 4.8 (0.3)
In 3QFY22, company completed the financial closure for its Panna
Realizations (Rs/mt) 5,555 5,510 5,841 5.2 6.0 project. Work at both the location of integrated plant and grinding units is
progressing as per schedule. Most of the civil work is in an advanced
EBITDA/mt (Rs) 1,416 988 1,116 (21.2) 13.0
stage and mechanical work has also started. And, the project is
JK Cement
expected to be completed by 4QFY23 against earlier guidance of
Ltd.
1QFY24. 9MFY22 capex is Rs9.75bn (including Rs6.7bn on account of
Net Sales 17,601 18,355 19,404 10.2 5.7
Panna expansion) and full year capex for FY22/FY23 is
EBITDA 4,488 3,290 3,708 (17.4) 12.7 Rs12.5bn/Rs14bn. Both Panna and Hamirpur plants are eligible for
incentives.
Adj. PAT 2,383 1,688 1,673 (29.8) (0.9)
Volumes (mn mt) 2.70 2.32 2.46 (8.9) 6.2
Udaipur Cement Works (UCWL) expansion plan includes 1.5mn mt
Realizations (Rs/mt) 4,418 4,828 4,853 9.9 0.5 clinker and 2.5mn mt cement at split locations. Clinkerization unit will be
at Udaipur and in the first phase, 1mn mt grinding unit will also be
EBITDA/mt (Rs) 710 702 595 (16.2) (15.2)
commissioned. The second phase (expected to be commissioned in
JK Lakshmi
2HFY24) will involve split grinding unit of 1.5mn mt in Rajasthan. The
Cement Ltd.
total capex outlay is estimated at Rs16.5bn (first phase expansion will
Net Sales 11,928 11,182 11,934 0.1 6.7
cost Rs12.5bn and Rs4bn will be towards the split grinding unit). Capex
EBITDA 1,918 1,626 1,464 (23.7) (9.9) for FY22 is estimated at Rs2bn and Rs10bn in FY23 while the balance
capex will be done in FY24.
Adj. PAT 1,023 765 592 (42.1) (22.6)
Volumes (mn mt) 4.86 3.80 4.23 (13.0) 11.3
NVCL plans to augment cement volume by ~2.4mn mt from both North
Realizations (Rs/mt) 4,590 5,315 5,119 11.5 (3.7)
as well as East regions. To achieve this target, the company is
EBITDA/mt (Rs) 930 870 537 (42.3) (38.3) undertaking debottlenecking process at Risda and Nimbhol plants and is
Nuvoco
upgrading blending unit in Bhiwani, Haryana to a full-fledged grinding
Vistas Corp
unit. Debottlenecking and up-gradation of grinding unit will entail a
Ltd.
Net Sales 22,307 20,196 21,652 (2.9) 7.2 capex of Rs4bn and capex for AFR at Risda and Nimbhol plants will be
Rs500mn. Gulbarga (Karnataka) unit expansion will start in FY23, which
EBITDA 4,519 3,305 2,269 (49.8) (31.3)
includes 6000tpd kiln in phase 1.
Adj. PAT 444 (258) (855) (292.7) 231.9

6 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities

Company Parameter (Rsmn) 3QFY21 2QFY22 3QFY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Key Quarterly Takeaways
Volumes (mn mt) 0.86 0.85 0.74 (13.6) (12.9)
Realizations (Rs/mt) 4,226 4,324 4,489 6.2 3.8
The company had already started commercial production from its new
EBITDA/mt (Rs) 1,213 712 623 (48.7) (12.6) 1mn mt integrated unit in Central India (MP) from Oct’2021. The 1.5mn mt
Sagar
grinding unit in Odisha was delayed and was commissioned on 10th
Cements
January, 2022 instead of mid-Dec’21. With this, the capex plan is largely
Ltd.
Net Sales 3,637 3,689 3,337 (8.3) (9.6) over with 8.25mn mt of new capacity added. The company will announce
next capex, either through organic or inorganic route by 1QFY23.
EBITDA 1,044 608 463 (55.7) (23.8)
Adj. PAT 496 208 46 (90.7) (77.7)
Volumes (mn mt) 7.16 6.32 6.55 (8.5) 3.7
Realizations (Rs/mt) 4,622 5,077 5,422 17.3 6.8 In Sept’21, SRCM had announced new capex plan, which includes: (1)
Setting up of an integrated cement plant in Nawalgarh tehsil of Rajasthan
EBITDA/mt (Rs) 1,521 1,422 1,260 (17.1) (11.4) with clinker capacity of 3.8mn mt and cement grinding capacity of 3.5mn
Shree
mt (2) Setting up of grinding unit in the Purulia district in West Bengal with
Cement
3mn mt capacity and (3) Setting up of 106MW solar power plant at various
Ltd.
Net Sales 33,094 32,059 35,518 7.3 10.8 locations. Total cost of this capex is Rs47.5bn till FY24. Total capacity of
SRCM will increase to 52.9mn mt post this capex. It has already
EBITDA 10,890 8,982 8,255 (24.2) (8.1) commissioned 6mn mt grinding capacity in Odisha and Maharashtra.
Adj. PAT 6,262 5,777 4,920 (21.4) (14.8)
Volumes (mn mt) 0.65 0.62 0.86 32.5 40.0
3mn mt clinkerization + 12 MW WHRS at Meghalaya and 2mn mt of
Realizations (Rs/mt) 6,164 6,589 6,422 4.2 (2.5) grinding unit in Guwahati are the company’s future expansion plans. It has
already ordered equipment for its clinker plant while both clinker plant and
EBITDA/mt (Rs) 1,215 1,162 781 (35.7) (32.8)
Star grinding unit are yet to get the environment clearance, which is expected
Cement within 3-4 months. 12MW WHRS is already in implementation mode and
Ltd. is expected to start in 1QFY23. The total capex for these projects will be
Net Sales 4,234 4,066 5,549 31.0 36.5
~Rs17-18bn, which is expected to be spent over a 3-year timeframe. The
EBITDA 840 717 675 (19.6) (5.8) company will spend ~Rs750mn-800mn on the 12MW WHRS in FY22 and
some advance payment for new projects.
Adj. PAT 647 465 438 (32.2) (5.8)
Volumes (mn mt) 2.61 2.71 3.01 15.2 11.0
TRCL had earlier commissioned the Jayanthipuram clinker line 3 of the
Realizations (Rs/mt) 5,131 5,510 5,152 0.4 (6.5) 1.5mn mt clinker unit in June 2021 while 9MW WHRS will be
commissioned by FY22-end. The 2.25mtpa clinker unit in Kurnool will be
The EBITDA/mt (Rs) 1,521 1,453 768 (49.5) (47.2)
commissioned by Feb’22. The 1mtpa grinding unit, 12MW WHRS and
Ramco
18MW thermal power plant in Kurnool will be commissioned by FY23-end.
Cement
In FY21, the company had spent Rs17.7bn on capex and in 9MFY22,
Ltd. Net Sales 13,391 14,931 15,491 15.7 3.7
Rs13.5bn capex has been spent. TRCL had earlier announced
EBITDA 3,970 3,938 2,309 (41.8) (41.4) decommissioning of kiln 2 at RR Nagar in Tamil Nadu and planned to set
up a new kiln there, which will come up in FY24.
Adj. PAT 2,014 5,171 826 (59.0) (84.0)
Volumes (mn mt) 23.88 21.64 23.13 (3.1) 6.9
Realizations (Rs/mt) 5,132 5,553 5,614 9.4 1.1 The management is continuing with its capex plan of 19.5mn mt and the
same is expected to be commissioned on time by FY23-end with a
EBITDA/mt (Rs) 1,296 1,254 1,046 (19.3) (16.6) marginal delay of up to 3-4 months. Post this capex, the company’s total
UltraTech
capacity will increase to 136mn mt, including oversees capacity. In
Cement
3QFY22, the company commissioned 0.6mn mt of additional grinding
Ltd.
Net Sales 1,22,541 1,20,168 1,29,849 6.0 8.1 capacity at Bihar and West Bengal and also commissioned second line of
2mn mt grinding unit in Uttar Pradesh. The company plans to increase its
EBITDA 30,943 27,147 24,194 (21.8) (10.9) white cement capacity from 0.6mn mt to 1.25mn mt in the next 2-3 years.
Adj. PAT 15,846 13,103 17,101 7.9 30.5
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

7 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 8: Cost growth sharply ahead of pricing
20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

(5.0)

(10.0)
1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

2QFY20

3QFY20

4QFY20

1QFY21

2QFY21

3QFY21

4QFY21

1QFY22

2QFY22

3QFY22
Realisation growth (YoY, %) Operating cost growth (YoY,%)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 9: Volume remained weak

90 50
81
40
80 74
72 30
70
70 66 64 65 65 66 65 65 65 20
61 10
59 58
60 56
53 0
49
50 45 -10
-20
40
-30
30 -40
1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

2QFY20

3QFY20

4QFY20

1QFY21

2QFY21

3QFY21

4QFY21

1QFY22

2QFY22

3QFY22
Aggregate Sales Volumes (mn mt) YoY growth (%)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 10: Realizations marginally better, need to improve further to cover cost pressures
5,600 12

5,400 10

5,200 8

5,000 6

4,800 4

4,600 2

4,400 0

4,200 -2

4,000 -4
4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY20

4QFY20

1QFY21

2QFY22

3QFY22
1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

2QFY20

2QFY21

3QFY21

4QFY21

1QFY22

Aggregate realisations (Rs/mt) YoY growth (RHS, %)

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

8 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 11: Operating costs up sharply, highest ever for the sector
4,500 20

4,300 15
4,100
10
3,900
5
3,700
0
3,500

3,300 -5

3,100 -10
1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

2QFY20

3QFY20

4QFY20

1QFY21

2QFY21

3QFY21

4QFY21

1QFY22

2QFY22

3QFY22
Operating Costs (Rs/MT) YoY growth (RHS, %)

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 12: EBITDA/mt has tapered off from the highs

1,630
₹ 1,317 ₹ 1,385
1,430 ₹ 1,296
₹ 1,251 ₹ 1,225
1,230 ₹ 1,121 ₹ 1,195 ₹ 1,137
₹ 1,067
₹ 989
1,030 ₹ 907 ₹ 916 ₹ 902 ₹ 896
₹ 849
₹ 795 ₹ 780
830 ₹ 720 ₹ 742
630
430
230
30
1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20

2QFY20

3QFY20

4QFY20

1QFY21

2QFY21

3QFY21

4QFY21

1QFY22

2QFY22

3QFY22
EBITDA/mt (Rs)
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 13:Operating cost break down – 3QFY21 Exhibit 14: Operating cost breakdown – 3QFY22

Other Exp Other Exp

₹ 705 Raw Material ₹ 821 Raw Material
Costs Costs
18% 18%
₹ 751 ₹ 838
20% 19%

Power and Freight costs Power and

Freight costs
Fuel ₹ 1,169 Fuel
₹ 1,138
Employee ₹ 947 26% Employee ₹ 1,353
30% Costs
Costs 25% 30%
₹ 301
₹ 283
7%
7%

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

9 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 15: Company wise volume growth (mn mt), Star, Mangalam and Ramco reported strong volume growth
Sales Volume 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22 3QFY22 YoY % QoQ %
ACC 7.8 6.6 4.8 6.5 7.7 8.0 6.8 6.6 7.5 -2.9% 14.0%
ACEM 6.5 5.8 4.2 5.7 7.0 7.2 6.4 6.2 7.2 2.1% 15.5%
UTCEM 20.9 21.4 14.7 20.1 23.9 27.8 21.5 21.6 23.1 -3.1% 6.9%
ICEM 2.7 2.6 1.4 2.1 2.4 3.0 1.9 2.4 2.1 -11.3% -10.7%
JKLC 2.3 2.5 1.9 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.5 -8.9% 6.2%
JKCE 2.6 2.7 1.9 2.8 3.2 3.9 3.0 3.3 3.3 4.8% -0.3%
HEIM 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 -11.1% -8.4%
MGC 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 17.0% 6.9%
SGC 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 -13.6% -12.9%
SNGI 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 -12.5% 44.5%
SRCM 6.2 6.9 4.9 6.5 7.2 8.2 6.8 6.3 6.6 -8.5% 3.7%
TRCL 2.8 2.9 1.9 2.2 2.6 3.2 2.1 2.7 3.0 15.2% 11.0%
ORCMNT 1.5 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.2 -10.4% -4.8%
DALBHA 5.1 5.2 3.7 4.8 5.8 6.4 4.9 5.1 5.7 -1.7% 11.8%
BCORP 3.4 3.4 2.4 3.3 3.6 4.2 3.4 3.3 3.4 -5.6% 2.4%
STRCEM 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.9 25.0% 40.0%
Average 65.7 65.4 45.3 60.9 71.6 81.5 65.1 65.0 69.7 -2.6% 7.2%
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 16: Company wise pricing growth (Rs/mt), Sharp growth for Shree, Orient and Sanghi
Realizations 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22 3QFY22 YoY % QoQ %
ACC 4,774 4,807 5,312 5,197 5,028 4,995 5,369 5,320 5,283 5.1% -0.7%
ACEM 4,795 4,909 5,195 5,031 5,014 5,002 5,251 5,221 5,217 4.0% -0.1%
UTCEM 4,954 5,063 5,211 5,162 5,132 5,186 5,495 5,553 5,614 9.4% 1.1%
ICEM 4,478 4,352 5,301 5,077 4,881 4,848 5,527 5,043 5,258 7.7% 4.3%
JKLC 4,313 4,305 4,320 4,371 4,418 4,552 4,633 4,828 4,853 9.9% 0.5%
JKCE 5,489 5,540 5,157 5,517 5,555 5,270 5,407 5,510 5,841 5.2% 6.0%
HEIM 4,485 4,677 4,757 4,637 4,691 4,673 4,695 4,683 4,827 2.9% 3.1%
MGC 4,453 4,659 4,763 4,566 4,601 4,505 4,690 4,639 4,392 -4.5% -5.3%
SGC 3,431 3,627 4,756 4,512 4,226 4,084 4,463 4,324 4,489 6.2% 3.8%
SNGI 4,307 4,607 4,648 4,403 4,229 4,358 4,698 5,081 4,676 10.6% -8.0%
SRCM 4,561 4,659 4,730 4,628 4,622 4,818 5,043 5,077 5,422 17.3% 6.8%
TRCL 4,494 4,740 5,378 5,680 5,131 5,080 5,739 5,510 5,152 0.4% -6.5%
ORCMNT 3,814 4,156 5,004 4,677 4,449 4,495 5,047 4,790 5,070 14.0% 5.8%
DALBHA 4,741 4,803 5,194 4,819 4,926 4,900 5,290 5,053 4,791 -2.7% -5.2%
BCORP 4,743 4,816 4,956 4,880 4,770 4,856 4,943 4,878 4,934 3.4% 1.2%
STRCEM 6,275 6,279 6,503 6,164 6,128 6,651 6,716 6,589 6,422 4.8% -2.5%
Average 4,831 4,923 5,128 5,066 5,020 5,054 5,342 5,333 5,378 7.1% 0.8%
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

10 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 17: Company wise EBITDA/mt (Rs)
EBITDA/mt 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 3QFY21 4QFY21 1QFY22 2QFY22 3QFY22 YoY % QoQ %
ACC 697 893 1,093 1,033 908 1,078 1,279 1,083 741 -18.4% -31.6%
ACEM 837 1,047 1,421 1,200 1,095 1,349 1,495 1,134 793 -27.6% -30.1%
UTCEM 1,008 1,140 1,416 1,343 1,296 1,328 1,536 1,254 1,046 -19.3% -16.6%
ICEM 484 255 1,090 1,114 905 671 876 566 494 -45.5% -12.8%
JKLC 652 820 750 781 710 922 813 702 595 -16.2% -15.2%
JKCE 1,086 1,298 1,150 1,461 1,416 1,228 1,323 988 1,116 -21.2% 13.0%
HEIM 981 1,168 1,264 1,137 947 1,097 1,107 946 607 -35.9% -35.9%
MGC 589 722 978 708 1,060 860 1,035 466 536 -49.4% 15.1%
SGC 260 534 1,567 1,451 1,213 1,019 1,218 712 623 -48.7% -12.6%
SNGI 893 1,069 1,163 928 1,058 1,253 1,101 960 701 -33.8% -27.0%
SRCM 1,360 1,562 1,421 1,513 1,521 1,439 1,482 1,422 1,260 -17.1% -11.4%
TRCL 713 952 1,342 1,997 1,521 1,399 1,700 1,453 768 -49.5% -47.2%
ORCMNT 371 792 1,198 1,109 1,006 1,095 1,360 1,047 965 -4.1% -7.8%
DALBHA 896 983 1,680 1,454 1,191 1,188 1,458 1,218 721 -39.5% -40.8%
BCORP 859 1,029 971 1,174 1,021 940 1,026 817 664 -34.9% -18.8%
STRCEM 1,307 1,424 1,455 1,211 1,215 1,152 1,218 1,162 781 -35.7% -32.8%
Average 902 1,067 1,317 1,296 1,195 1,225 1,385 1,137 896 -25.1% -21.3%
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

11 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 18: Company wise volume growth Exhibit 19: Company wise pricing growth
20.0 17 20.0 17
15
15.0 14
15.0
12
10.0 10 9
5 10.0 8
5.0 2 6
5 5
4 4 3
- 5.0 3
0
(5.0) -2 -3 -3 -
(10.0) -6
-8 -9
-10 -11 -11 (5.0) -3
(15.0) -12 -13 -5
-14
(20.0) (10.0)

BCORP

MGC
JKCE
SGC
JKLC

UTCEM
BCORP

SRCM
MGC

JKCE

ORCMNT

ACC
UTCEM

ICEM

HEIM
SGC

TRCL

DALBHA
JKLC

NUVOCO

PRSC

ACEM
SRCM

ORCMNT

ICEM
ACC

HEIM
DALBHA

PRSC
TRCL

ACEM

NUVOCO
Volume growth (YoY %) Pricing growth (YoY %)

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 20: YoY change in RM costs Exhibit 21: YoY change in other expenses
40 36 34 33 45 40
35 28 24
30 23 24 21
25 19 19 17 15
20 15 9 7
11 11 10 5 4 3
8 6 5
10
2 2 -5
0 -15
-10 (4) -25
(7)
-35
-20 Change in RM costs /mt (YoY, %) (16) -45 Change in other exp/mt ( YoY, %)
-30 -55
SGC

MGC

DALBHA
SRCM

ACC
JKCE

TRCL

ACEM

JKLC
ORCMNT

ICEM

UTCEM

NUVOCO

HEIM
SGC

MGC
SRCM

DALBHA
ACC
JKLC

ACEM
TRCL

JKCE
HEIM

ORCMNT

ICEM
NUVOCO

UTCEM

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

Exhibit 22: YoY change in power & fuel costs Exhibit 23: YoY change in freight costs
140 128 15 13 12
10
120 10 8
Change in power & fuel costs /mt (YoY, %) 6
5 5
100
5 3 2 2 2
80 73 69
59 57 0
60 50
38 36 -5 (2)
40 33
29 28 (5)
25 22 21
20 -10
Change in freight costs /mt (YoY, %)
0 -15 (12)
SGC

MGC
SRCM

ACC
JKLC

DALBHA
TRCL

ACEM

JKCE
ICEM

HEIM
NUVOCO

UTCEM

ORCMNT

SGC

MGC
DALBHA

SRCM

ACC
JKCE
JKLC

TRCL

ACEM
NUVOCO

ORCMNT

ICEM

UTCEM

HEIM

Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

12 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities
Exhibit 24: Operating costs up sharply Exhibit 25: EBITDA/mt higher only for ACC
40 -
34
35 (4)
(10)
28 Change in operating costs (YoY, %)
30
25
(20) (16) (17) (18)
25 21 (19) (21)
20 19 19
20 (30)
15 15 14 14 (28)
15 13 13
10 9 9 (40) (35) (36) (36)
10 Change in EBITDA/mt (YoY, %) (39)
(42)
(50) (45)
5 (49) (49)(50)
- (60)
BCORP
STRCEM
SGC

MGC

BCORP
SRCM

ACC

STRCEM
JKLC

DALBHA
ACEM
TRCL

MGC
JKCE

SGC
ICEM

HEIM
ORCMNT

SRCM
ACC
NUVOCO

UTCEM

JKLC

DALBHA
ACEM

TRCL
JKCE

HEIM

ICEM
ORCMNT

NUVOCO
UTCEM
Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research

13 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities
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14 Cement Sector
 Institutional Equities
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15 Cement Sector