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IPPTCh 005
IPPTCh 005
CONCEPTS
• Chapter 5
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Probability
Collectively Exhaustive
At least one of the events must occur when an experiment
is conducted. The union of collectively exhaustive events
must cover all the events within the entire sample space
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
The probability of an event happening is the fraction
of the time similar events happened in the past.
SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
Summarizing Probability
SELF REVIEW 5 - 2
P(A) + P(~A) = 1
or
P(A) = 1 – P(~A)
Note that
P(A or C) = P(A) + P(C) = P(~B),
Since
P(B) = 1 – P(~B) = 1 – (P(A) + P(C))
= 1 – (0.025 + 0.075)
= 0.900
SELF REVIEW 5 - 3
EXAMPLE
The Venn Diagram shows the results of a survey of 200
tourists who visited Florida during the year. The results
revealed that 120 went to Disney World, 100 went to Busch
Gardens, and 60 visited both.What is
the probabilitya selected person
visited either Disney World or Busch
Gardens?
= 4 + 13 – 1
52 52 52
= 0.3077
SELF REVIEW 5 - 4
b) One possibility is
TRY & CHECK
Solution:
The probability the 1st member made an airline reservation
last year is 0.60, written as P(R1) = 0.60.
The probability that the 2nd member made a reservation is
also 0.60, so P(R2) = 0.60.
Solution
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
(c) Does the sum of the probabilities for the events described
in parts (a) and (b) equal 1? Explain.
SOLUTION TO SELF REVIEW 5 - 6
CONTINGENCY TABLES
For example, 150 adults were asked their gender and the
number of Facebook accounts they used. The following
table summarizes the results.
LO5-5
CONTINGENCY TABLE - EXAMPLE
TREE DIAGRAMS
Rarely
SELF REVIEW 5 - 8
f) As shown in part (e), visits often and enclosed mall are not
• independent, so apply the general rule of multiplication.
• P(often and enclosed mall) = P(often) P(enclosed ∣ often)
80 60
= = 0.31
195 80
TRY & CHECK