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The Paradox of Plenty
Studies in International Political Economy
Stephen D. Krasner and Miles Kahler, General Editors
Ernst B. Haas, Consulting Editor
FIGURES
TABLES
xi
xii Figures and Tables
"Don't study O P E C , " Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo told me when I sought
out the founder of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) in his home in Caracas, Venezuela, during the height of the
1970s oil boom. "It is boring. Study what oil is doing to Venezuela,
what oil is doing to KS." At the very moment that the coffers of OPEC
governments overflowed and gasoline consumers waited in long lines in
the United States and Europe, the man whose idea had reshaped the
international system mused over the impact of the most dramatic price
rise in history. Stopping several times to admire the 1 9 3 0 s Mercedes
that he still drove, one of the world's first conservationists—who be-
lieved early on that a depletable resource should have exceptionally
high market value (and that cars should be built to last forever!)—of-
fered some parting and remarkably prophetic words: "Ten years from
now, twenty years from now, you will see. Oil will bring us ruin."
Those words were the origin of this book, which seeks to explain a
puzzle: after benefiting from the largest transfer of wealth ever to occur
without war, why have most oil-exporting developing countries suf-
fered from economic deterioration and political decay? In the midst of
two massive booms that seemed to create the opportunity for "politics
without limits," why did different oil-exporting governments operating
in distinctive contexts choose common development paths, sustain simi-
lar trajectories, and produce generally perverse outcomes? That coun-
tries as dissimilar in their regime types, social structures, geostrategic
locations, cultures, and sizes as Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, Algeria, and
xv
xvi Preface
Commodities,
Booms, and States
1973. In the Middle East, it was the era of the "Great Civilization"; in
Latin America, the epoch of "La Gran Venezuela." That year the mem-
bers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
succeeded in bringing about the most radical transfer of wealth ever to
occur without war. By seizing the institutional capacity to set prices for
oil and by nationalizing their domestic production, these countries,
which had been virtual case studies of foreign domination in the past,
finally appeared to gain control over their primary natural resource.
Petroleum prices soared overnight—from $3 to $ 1 0 per barrel, eventu-
ally reaching a whopping $40 per barrel in the spot market after the
second oil boom of 1980. In the brief period from 1970 to 1974 alone,
government revenues of OPEC nations leapt elevenfold. Money poured
into their national treasuries at an unprecedented rate. "More money,"
one finance minister reminisced, "than we ever in our wildest dreams
thought possible." 1
The petrodollar deluge gave rise to new aspirations—for prosperity,
national greatness, equity, and autonomy—in short, for a future that
looked markedly different from the oil dependence of the past. Leaders
of oil countries believed that they would finally be able to "sow the
petroleum"—that is, redirect the capital accumulation from oil into
other productive activities. New revenues from petroleum would pro-
vide the resources necessary to "catch up" to the developed world while
simultaneously bringing political stability and a better life for their peo-
ple. As Venezuelan President Carlos Andrés Pérez explained (interview,
3
4 Commodities, Booms, and States
Caracas, March 1979): "One day you Americans will be driving cars
with bumpers made from our bauxite, our aluminum, and our labor.
And we will be a developed country like you."
But less than a decade later, even before oil prices began their dra-
matic plunge in 1 9 8 3 , these dreams lay shattered. The exporting coun-
tries were plagued by bottlenecks and breakdowns in production, capi-
tal flight, drastic declines in the efficiency of their public enterprises,
double-digit inflation, and overvalued currencies. Even the doubling of
oil prices once again in 1980 failed to pull them out of their develop-
mental doldrums. Their problems were subsequently exacerbated by a
sharp decline of petroleum prices throughout the 1980s, which rapidly
transformed their expectations of unparalleled prosperity into little
more than a painful memory. Led by governments that seemed incapa-
ble of sound economic management or planning, most of the oil-
exporting nations found their economic performance and their oil and
debt dependence worse than in the pre-bonanza years. By the 1990s,
they even faced the denationalization of their oil industries as they ac-
tively sought new forms of participation from the foreign oil companies
they had once rejected.
Political turmoil accompanied this poor economic record. In the ear-
liest and most dramatic case, the Shah of Iran was overthrown in 1 9 7 9
in an Islamic revolution that bitterly criticized the rapid industrializa-
tion and Westernization characteristic of his "Great Civilization." Nige-
ria oscillated between military and civilian rule without being able to
consolidate either. One-party domination was shaken in Mexico. By
the 1990s, once stable Algeria teetered on the brink of civil war, while
Venezuela, Latin America's second oldest democracy, struggled desper-
ately to preserve its competitive party system. Indeed, less than two
decades after the oil price increase, all major oil-producing developing
countries except Indonesia and the scarcely populated Arab nations ex-
perienced serious disorganization in their state bureaucracies and severe
disruption in their political regimes. Just as gold had once tainted King
Midas's life, oil seemed to "petrolize" the economy and polity of these
countries. "It is the devil's excrement," OPEC's founder, Juan Pablo
Pérez Alfonzo, observed. "We are drowning in the devil's excrement." 2
What happened? Is black gold an unmitigated development "good,"
as has been commonly believed, or is it the "devil's excrement"? Why
have oil exporters apparently been unable to translate their fabulous
windfalls into self-sustaining, equitable and stable development paths?
Are their disappointing outcomes the result of coincidental but similar
The Modern Myth of King Midas 5
T H E D U T C H DISEASE:
THE INADEQUACY OF ECONOMIC EXPLANATIONS
In the year 1843, at which time the water-cure had been heard of
this side of the Atlantic only by a very few, I for the first time applied
water-treatment in a case of midwifery. I had, it is true, been for
months, and I may say years, studying upon the matter, as a student
of medicine who is determined, above all things, to learn and
practice the truth, ought; yet I had no opportunity of bringing the
principles which I believed in to bear directly upon any given case
previously to the period referred to. The following then, are some of
the leading particulars of my first case:
Case I.—The lady was a resident of this city, of a feeble
constitution by inheritance, and, I think, twenty-one or two years of
age. For three or four years previous to her confinement her health
had been, on the whole, much improved. Her constitution seemed,
indeed, to undergo a remarkable change for the better, in
consequence of leaving off tea, coffee, spices, butter, and flesh-meat,
and at the same time practicing the daily bath. She, in short, became,
as her flesh-eating friends said, “a thorough Grahamite.”
Notwithstanding her improvement, however, she suffered
miscarriage two or three times in as many years.
During the period of pregnancy of which I am speaking, I advised
her to be very particular in keeping up her baths, exercise, diet, etc.
She followed the advice faithfully. She suffered somewhat from
neuralgic pains in the abdomen, but these were in general readily
checked by the use of wet compresses, and the sitting and other
baths. Few patients have ever been as faithful as she was in carrying
out all good rules. She kept up her bathing and exercise to the very
day of labor.
There was one circumstance which operated against her a good
deal toward the close of the period. A worthy and skillful medical
friend advised that she should have premature delivery brought on,
because her pelvis was, as he said, too small to allow of the birth of a
full-grown child. This advice, however, she would not, on any
account, entertain, notwithstanding she had the utmost confidence
in the skill and honesty of her friend. She resolved to trust God for
the result, although she was well aware that she was to pass through
a most fearful ordeal of danger and suffering. As it proved afterward
—for she has borne a number of children since—her own instinct was
better than all the knowledge of her medical friend.
Her labor was a very severe one, and she met it with most
praiseworthy courage. She was at length delivered safely. The child
was of more than average size, but owing to a malformation it could
not live. Her maternal feelings were of the strongest kind, and the
loss of her child was a great blow upon her spirits. She was, however,
up daily, more or less, from the very first. Indeed, it was not two
hours after the birth—she having been awake all night—before she
stood up, and was thoroughly washed in cold water from head to
foot. She knew what cold water had done for her before, and she was
not afraid that it would fail her now in her time of need.
She pursued the treatment from day to day, observing the greatest
care not to overdo. She understood well, young as she was, the great
importance of mental quiet under such circumstances, and saw no
company for many days. On the sixth day she had so far recovered as
to be able to walk to the Battery, a distance of a mile and a half. The
weather being hot, she rested awhile upon the shady seats of that
beautiful inclosure, and was much refreshed with the sea breezes
which are so genial at that season of the year. Afterward she walked
back home, making, in all, a morning excursion of three miles.
This, then, I put down as one of the first of the American cases of
hydropathy, and the first in childbirth. Thanks to Priessnitz, there
have been thousands since.
Case II.—June 26, 1846.—Two weeks ago, Mrs. E., of 56 Prince
Street, informed me that she had arrived very near the end of the
period of her first pregnancy, and that she desired me to attend her
in childbirth. By conversation I soon found she was well-informed in
the new system, and the modes of preserving health, and this without
her having had any particular advantages for acquiring such
knowledge. She had read faithfully and understanding upon the
subject of health, a duty which too few mothers observe. Mrs. E. is
about twenty-two years of age, with constitution naturally very good,
although not remarkably strong. Her attention became directed to
bathing about two months since. She performed two ablutions daily,
and took sitz-baths; discontinued the use of tea and coffee, took very
little animal food, living principally upon coarse bread, hominy,
cracked wheat, and fruits. She took frequent exercise in the open air,
and by these means became sensibly invigorated in general health,
and was kept perfectly free from unpleasant symptoms of every kind.
I advised my patient to go on as she had done perseveringly and to
the last. Her very kind and affectionate husband and her mother, as
well as other good-meaning relations, insisted that she should take a
different course, particularly in food and drink. But she chose
understandingly to pursue her own way, feeling full confidence that
she would be able to prove to her friends that she was in the right,
and that young persons were not necessarily less knowing than older
ones.
June 26.—To-day Mrs. E. sent for me early in the morning. She
had experienced by turns slight labor pains from 9 A. M. the day
before; was not able to sleep much in the night. Took baths as usual,
and walked in the open air. This morning she practiced general
ablution and sitting-baths as usual. Cold water renders the pains
more efficient, which is a good symptom. Walking about the room
has the same effect. The pains increased very gradually, and this
afternoon, notwithstanding they grew more severe, she was able to
sleep at times between them. These continued to increase until six
o’clock this evening, at which time she gave birth to a remarkably
fine, healthy daughter. In a few minutes the after-birth was expelled,
and no undue flooding occurred. Wet towels were placed upon the
abdomen and the genital parts, and the face, hands, and feet were
sponged, each of these applications having a most soothing and
refreshing effect.
In the case of the infant, care was taken to avoid the great error so
generally practiced, of separating the cord by which the child is
attached to the mother, too soon.
The separation after due time being made, the infant was washed
in soft water made very slightly tepid, with the addition of a little
mild soap. No bandage was put about its abdomen, for the reason
that it always causes more or less harm—that is, if there is no
malformation of parts, and always tends to induce the very difficulty
it is designed to prevent, viz., that of rupture. The kind-hearted
mother of Mrs. E. insisted, as a matter of course, that the bandage
should be applied as in the good days of old, but Mrs. E. said “Do as
the doctor says.” Very light muslin clothing was then placed upon
the infant, after which it was left, without drug or dose, quietly to
sleep.
9½ o’clock, Evening.—Returned. Mrs. E., happy and contented,
has been enjoying sound, refreshing sleep. Has had no nourishment
since morning. Took then a little fruit. Prefers to wait until morning
before taking any more. I recommended her to take fruit every day
from the first, that the infant may be accustomed to her doing so. If
mothers omit fruit for a while and then commence its use, the milk
generally distresses the child. I believe that, as a rule, the judicious
use of well-matured fruits will not cause any difficulty in the child,
provided the above direction is from the first and onward complied
with.
Mrs. E. is now to take a bath—that is, with assistance, the whole
surface is to be cleansed, portion by portion, by means of cloths wet
in moderately cold water. This will cause a sense of great comfort—
will increase the strength and promote sleep. As is very common on
such occasions, the friends object strongly to the use of cold water.
“Oh, it will give you a death cold! how can you do it?” and the like
expressions are used. But the patient well understands that she
needs the invigorating and soothing effect of the ablution, and that
when the system is sufficiently warm, it will not only be perfectly
safe, but highly beneficial. She prefers, as she has done, to practice
upon rational and well-ascertained principles, rather than to be
guided by the whims and caprices that custom with its iron rule
entails upon society.