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JAPAN
DECIDES
2021
The Japanese
General Election
Edited by
Robert J. Pekkanen
Steven R. Reed
Daniel M. Smith
Japan Decides 2021
Robert J. Pekkanen · Steven R. Reed ·
Daniel M. Smith
Editors
Japan Decides 2021

The Japanese General Election
Editors
Robert J. Pekkanen Steven R. Reed
Jackson School of International Faculty of Policy Studies
Studies, University of Washington Chuo University
Seattle, WA, USA Tokyo, Japan
Daniel M. Smith
Columbia University
New York, NY, USA
ISBN 978-3-031-11323-9 ISBN 978-3-031-11324-6 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-11324-6
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
Nature Switzerland AG 2023
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights
of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and
retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc.
in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such
names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for
general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and informa-
tion in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither
the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with
respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been
made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps
and institutional affiliations.
Cover image: © REUTERS/Alamy Stock Photo
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
To my friend Paul, who is always asking me how my book is going.
This one is for you.
—From Robert J. Pekkanen
Steve Reed thanks his coeditors, past and present.

—From Steven R. Reed
To everyone who has lost a friend or loved one in the pandemic.

—From Daniel M. Smith
Acknowledgments
We are thrilled to produce the fourth in our series of high-quality anal-

yses of general elections for Japan’s House of Representatives, following
Japan Decides 2012, 2014, and 2017. The global coronavirus pandemic
framed Japan’s 2021 election, as we and many authors argue in these
pages. However, it also posed new challenges for the editorial team and
publisher. Through the hard work of our authors, we were able to compile
what we believe will be the definitive volume on the October 31, 2021,
general election in Japan. We wish to also express our thanks to our stal-
wart editor at Palgrave Macmillan, Ambra Finotello. She made every one
of the many steps in this process easier. This is the first Japan Decides
volume not to benefit from the intelligence and creativity of one of the
inaugural editors, Ethan Scheiner, and we want to thank him for his work
in establishing the Japan Decides series. Robert thanks Saadia, Sophia,
Sarah, Lynn, and John Pekkanen for their support. Steve thanks his coed-
itors, past and present. Dan thanks John, and the many friends and family
members who supported him through a challenging two years.
vii
Contents
1 Introduction: Japan’s Coronavirus Election 1

Robert J. Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, and Daniel M. Smith
2 Japanese Politics Between 2017 and 2021 13
Robert J. Pekkanen and Steven R. Reed
3 The 2021 Election Results: Continuity and Change 23
Ko Maeda
Part I Party Politics

4 How the Liberal Democratic Party Avoided a Loss
in 2021 43
Kuniaki Nemoto
5 The Opposition in 2021: A Second Party and a Third
Force 59
6 Kōmeitō in 2021: Strategizing Between the LDP
and Sōka Gakkai 71
Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin
7 Abe’s Legacy 87
Tobias Harris
ix
x CONTENTS
8 Candidate Selection for the 2021 General Election 103

Jochen Rehmert
9 Generational Change or Continuity in Japan’s
Leadership? 115
Charles T. McClean
10 Should I Stay or Should I Go? Party Switching
in Japan 131
Jordan Hamzawi
11 Ministerial Selection Under Abe, Suga, and Kishida 149
Hiroki Kubo
Part II The Campaign

12 Public Opinion and COVID-19 167
Yukio Maeda
13 Social Media in the 2021 Election Campaign 183
Robert A. Fahey
14 Are the Kids Alright? Young People and Turnout
in Japan 201
Gill Steel
15 Did COVID-19 Impact Japan’s 2021 General
Election? 219
Michael F. Thies and Yuki Yanai
Part III The Issues: Domestic and International

16 Japan’s Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic 239
Phillip Y. Lipscy
17 Economic Policy Trilemma: Macroeconomic Politics
in the 2021 Election 255
Kenya Amano and Saori N. Katada
18 Does Income Inequality Matter in Japan? 275
Yeon Ju Lee
CONTENTS xi
19 Women’s Representation and the Gendered Impact

of COVID-19 in Japan 289
Yesola Kweon
20 Black Lives Matter in Japan: The Specter of Race
and Racism Haunting Japan 305
Michael Orlando Sharpe
21 Constitutional Revision in the 2021 Election 319
Kenneth Mori McElwain
22 COVID-19: The International Dimension 333
Kerstin Lukner
23 Foreign Policy and Defense 347
Michael J. Green
24 China in Japan’s 2021 Elections 361
Kristin Vekasi
25 The Olympics in the 2021 Election 375
David Leheny
26 Conclusion: Voters Choose Competence in Japan’s
Coronavirus Election 387
Daniel M. Smith, Steven R. Reed, and Robert J. Pekkanen
Index 397
Notes on Contributors
Amano Kenya is a Ph.D. student in the Department of Political Science

at the University of Washington. His research focuses primarily on the
intersections of economic institutions and politics, with an emphasis on
monetary and fiscal policy, and regulation.
Fahey Robert A. is an Assistant Professor at the Waseda Institute for
Advanced Study (WIAS) at Waseda University in Tokyo. His research
work focuses on populism, polarization, and the influence of social media
on political beliefs and behaviors.
Green Michael J. is Director of Asian Studies and Chair in Modern
and Contemporary Japanese Politics and Foreign Policy at Georgetown
University’s School of Foreign Service and Senior Vice President for Asia
and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
He previously served as Special Assistant to the President for National
Security and Senior Director for Asian Affairs on the staff of the National
Security Council.
Hamzawi Jordan is a Post-doctoral Research Fellow for the Program
on US-Japan Relations at Harvard University. His research focuses on
electoral institutions, political parties, and voter behavior.
Harris Tobias is a Senior Fellow for Asia at the Center for American
Progress in Washington, D.C. He is the author of The Iconoclast: Shinzo
Abe and the New Japan (Hurst Publishers, 2020).
xiii
xiv NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS
Katada Saori N. is a Professor of International Relations and the director

of the Center for International Studies at University of Southern Cali-
fornia. Her book Japan’s New Regional Reality: Geoeconomic Strategy
in the Asia-Pacific was published from Columbia University Press in
July 2020. She has co-authored two recent books: The BRICS and
Collective Financial Statecraft (Oxford University Press, 2017), and
Taming Japan’s Deflation: The Debate over Unconventional Monetary
Policy (Cornell University Press, 2018).
Klein Axel is Full Professor at the Institute of Political Science at
Duisburg-Essen University (Germany). He is co-author of Kōmeitō: Poli-
tics and Religion in Japan (IEAS Berkeley, 2014), has produced the
documentary film “Pictures at an Election” (DIJ Tokyo 2008), and has
published widely on Japanese politics.
Kubo Hiroki is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Meiji
Gakuin University. His research interests include comparative politics,
political parties, legislative studies, electoral systems, and political repre-
sentation. His articles have appeared in Party Politics, Electoral Studies,
Public Choice, and Asian Journal of Comparative Politics.
Kweon Yesola is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at
Sungkyunkwan University. Her primary research areas are comparative
political economy, political behavior, and public policy with a focus on
East Asia. Her recent publication includes the co-authored book, Democ-
racy under Siege? Parties, Voters, and Elections after the Great Recession
(Oxford University Press, 2020).
Leheny David is a Professor in the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific
Studies at Waseda University. His most recent book is Empire of Hope: The
Sentimental Politics of Japanese Decline (Cornell University Press, 2018).
Lee Yeon Ju is the Korea Foundation-Song Family Assistant Professor
in Korean Business and Economics at Georgetown University’s Walsh
School of Foreign Service. Her research examines the political origins and
consequences of economic inequality and development with a focus on
Japan and East Asia.
Lipscy Phillip Y. is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political
Science and Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy at the Univer-
sity of Toronto, where he is also Chair in Japanese Politics & Global
Affairs and Director of the Centre for the Study of Global Japan. He is the
NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xv
author of Renegotiating the World Order: Institutional Change in Inter-

national Relations (2017) and co-editor of Japan under the DPJ: The
Politics of Transition and Governance (2013) and The Political Economy
of the Abe Government and Abenomics Reforms (2021).
Lukner Kerstin is Managing Director of the Alliance for Research
on East Asia Ruhr (AREA Ruhr), a joint research and teaching insti-
tute of the Universities of Duisburg-Essen and Bochum, Germany. Her
research focuses on Japan’s foreign and security policy. She is co-author of
Reluctant Warriors: Germany, Japan, and Their U.S. Alliance Dilemma
(Brookings Institution Press, 2020).
Maeda Ko is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University
of North Texas. His research interests center on elections, party compe-
tition, and political institutions. His work has appeared in journals such
as the Journal of Politics, British Journal of Political Science, Compara-
tive Political Studies, and Electoral Studies. He serves as an editor of the
Japanese Journal of Political Science and an associate editor of the Journal
of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties.
Maeda Yukio is Professor at the Institute of Social Science at the
University of Tokyo. His research focuses on Japanese political behavior
and public opinion. He has served on a Japanese local committee for
major international surveys, including the Comparative Study of Electoral
Systems, the Asian Barometer Survey, and the World Value Survey.
McClean Charles T. is the Japan Foundation CGP Postdoctoral Asso-
ciate at Yale University’s Council on East Asian Studies. Previously, he
was the Toyota Visiting Professor at the University of Michigan’s Center
for Japanese Studies and a Postdoctoral Associate at Harvard University’s
Program on US-Japan Relations. His research focuses on the politics of
age and aging, institutions, representation, social policy, and Japan.
McElwain Kenneth Mori is Professor of Comparative Politics at the
Institute of Social Science, University of Tokyo. His research focuses on
comparative political institutions, most recently on differences in constitu-
tional design across countries. His work has been published in a number
of journals and edited volumes, including American Journal of Political
Science, Journal of East Asian Studies, Social Science Japan, Chuō Kōron,
and the Journal of Japanese Studies. He also serves as Editor-in-Chief of
Social Science Japan Journal, published by Oxford University Press, and
xvi NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS
is a board member of the UTokyo Center for Contemporary Japanese

Studies.
McLaughlin Levi is an Associate Professor at the Department of Philos-
ophy and Religious Studies, North Carolina State University. He is
co-author of Kōmeitō: Politics and Religion in Japan (IEAS Berkeley,
2014) and author of Soka Gakkai’s Human Revolution: The Rise of a
Mimetic Nation in Modern Japan (University of Hawai’i Press, 2019), as
well as numerous book chapters and articles on religion and politics in
Japan.
Nemoto Kuniaki is a Professor of Political Science at Musashi Univer-
sity, Japan. His research interests cover electoral systems, parties and
party systems, and legislative politics. His articles have appeared in British
Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, Electoral
Studies, and Party Politics.
Pekkanen Robert J. is Professor at the University of Washington (USA).
He has published twelve earlier books on politics, most recently including
Party Personnel Strategies and The Oxford Handbook of Japanese Poli-
tics. His work has appeared in American Political Science Review, British
Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, and other
journals.
Reed Steven R. is Professor of Modern Government at Chuo University
(Emeritus). He has recently published Political Corruption and Scandals
in Japan with Matthew M. Calrson (2018). He has published in the
British Journal of Political Science and the American Journal of Political
Science as well as numerous other academic journals.
Rehmert Jochen is a Post-doctoral Research Fellow at the Department
of Political Science at the University of Zurich, Switzerland. His research
revolves around the topics of candidate selection and coalition govern-
ments and has been published in Comparative Political Studies, Political
Behavior, and the Japanese Journal of Political Science.
Sharpe Michael Orlando is an Associate Professor of Political Science at
York College of the City University of New York and an Adjunct Research
Scholar at Columbia University’s Weatherhead East Asian Institute. His
research interests concern the politics of migration, immigrant political
incorporation, and political transnationalism in the Netherlands, Japan,
and around the world. His first book, Postcolonial Citizens and Ethnic
NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS xvii
Migration: The Netherlands and Japan in the Age of Globalization, was

published by Palgrave MacMillan in 2014. He is currently completing
his second book manuscript The Politics of Racism and Antiracism in
Japan. His other research investigates Japan as an emerging migration
state as well as the paid voluntary return of migrants and their fami-
lies and implicit boundary making in liberal democracies. He is currently
a member of the Association of Asian Studies Northeast Asia Council
Distinguished Speakers Bureau.
Smith Daniel M. is the Gerald L. Curtis Visiting Associate Professor of
Modern Japanese Politics and Foreign Policy in the Department of Polit-
ical Science and School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia
University. He is the author of Dynasties and Democracy: The Inherited
Incumbency Advantage in Japan (Stanford University Press, 2018).
Steel Gill is Professor in political science at the Institute for the Liberal
Arts, Doshisha University. Her research has mainly focused on public
opinion and political behavior, including research on young people in
Japan and Britain. Her recent publications include What Women Want:
Gender and Voting in Japan, Britain, and the United States (2022) and
the edited volume Beyond the Gender Gap in Japan (2019).
Thies Michael F. is an Associate Professor of Political Science, Univer-
sity of California, Los Angeles (USA). He is co-author (with Frances
Rosenbluth) of Japan Transformed: Political Change and Economic
Restructuring (2010) and his work on elections, parties, coalitions, and
policymaking in Japan, and other advanced democracies has appeared in
top political science journals and edited volumes.
Vekasi Kristin is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political
Science and School of Policy and International Affairs at the Univer-
sity of Maine. Her research focuses on trade and investment strategies
in changing geopolitical environments, economic security, and the polit-
ical risk management of supply chains. She specializes in Northeast
Asia, and her book Risk Management Strategies of Japanese Compa-
nies in China (Routledge 2019) explores how Japanese multinational
corporations mitigate political risk in China.
Yanai Yuki is an Associate Professor in the School of Economics and
Management at the Kochi University of Technology and Research Fellow
in the Graduate School of Law at Kobe University. He conducts research
on the comparative political economy of elections, redistribution, and
political institutions.
Abbreviations
Political Parties
CDP Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (Rikken Minshutō)
Daichi New Party Daichi (Shintō Daichi)
DP Democratic Party (Minshintō)
DPJ Democratic Party of Japan (Minshutō)
Hope Party of Hope (Kibō no Tō)
HRP Happiness Realization Party (Kōfuku Jitsugen Tō)
Ishin Japan Ishin no Kai (Nippon Ishin no Kai)
JCP Japanese Communist Party (Nihon Kyōsantō)
Kokoro Party for Japanese Kokoro (Nippon no Kokoro)
Kōmeitō Kōmeitō
LDP Liberal Democratic Party (Jiyū Minshutō)
Reiwa Reiwa Shinsengumi
SDP Social Democratic Party (Shakai Minshutō)
TF Tokyoites First (Tōmin Faasuto no Kai)
Newspapers
Asahi Asahi Shinbun
Mainichi Mainichi Shinbun
Nikkei Nihon Keizai Shinbun
Sankei Sankei Shinbun
Yomiuri Yomiuri Shinbun
xix
xx ABBREVIATIONS
Other Abbreviations
ASEAN Association for Southeast Asian Nations
COVAX COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access
CPTPP Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific
Partnership
DNLW Dually Nominated List Winner
DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
FOIP Free and Open Indo-Pacific
FPTP First-Past-The-Post Electoral System
HC House of Councillors
HR House of Representatives
KPI Key Performance Indicator
MP Member of Parliament (or Diet Member, DM)
ODA Official Development Assistance
PR Proportional Representation
QUAD Quadrilateral Security Dialogue
SDF Self-Defense Forces
SEA-IP region Southeast Asian/Indo-Pacific region
SMD Single-Member District
TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership
WHO World Health Organization
List of Figures
Fig. 3.1 Vote share of Ishin SMD candidates 28

Fig. 3.2 Prefecture-level PR vote change, 2017–2021 29
Fig. 3.3 Winning percentage of the LDP’s SMD candidates 30
Fig. 4.1 Number of districts where Hoshu Bunretsu happened
and number of LDI winners where Hoshu Bunretsu
happened, 1996–2001 52
Fig. 5.1 Opposition parties 2017 to 2021 68
Fig. 6.1 2021 Tokyo metropolitan election. Kōmeitō’s 2021
losses as a percentage of 2017 total in all electoral districts 76
Fig. 6.2 Kōmeitō’s PR votes in House of Representatives
Elections (2000–2021) 80
Fig. 6.3 Kōmeitō candidates’ lead in SMDs over their strongest
competitors (2017 and 2021) 81
Fig. 6.4 Overall turnout and Kōmeitō vote and seat share 82
Fig. 9.1 Candidates and Elected MPs Under 40 (1955–2021) 118
Fig. 10.1 Party switching over time 135
Fig. 10.2 Contesting elections over time 137
Fig. 10.3 Predicted probability of run choice (voteshare) 141
Fig. 10.4 Predicted probability of run choice (policy difference) 143
Fig. 10.5 Alluvial plot of party switching for 2021 144
Fig. 11.1 Cabinet Portfolio Allocations under Abe, Suga,
and Kishida 154
Fig. 12.1 Approval ratings of the Abe, Suga, and Kishida cabinets,
November 2017–November 2021 169
xxi
xxii LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. 12.2 Primary reason for cabinet approval, November

2017–November 2021 173
Fig. 12.3 Primary reason for disapproval, November
2017–November 2021 175
Fig. 12.4 Evaluations of government COVID-19 response
and cabinet approval, January 2020–November 2021 177
Fig. 13.1 Social media usage by candidates, per party 187
Fig. 13.2 Demographic correlates of Twitter usage by candidates 190
Fig. 13.3 Correspondence analysis of candidate tweets, by party 192
Fig. 13.4 Distribution of candidate and media positions,
from Twitter network data 196
Fig. 14.1 The Digital Campaign (October 19–30, 2021) 203
Fig. 14.2 Young Adults’ Low Turnout 206
Fig. 15.1 Cabinet Approval and Disapproval Rates, December
2019–January 2022 222
Fig. 15.2 Daily confirmed COVID-19 Deaths per Million People,
January 1, 2021–October 31, 2021 (7-day rolling
average) 222
Fig. 15.3 Share of the population fully vaccinated against
COVID-19, December 15, 2020–October 31, 2021 223
Fig. 15.4 Excess Mortality in G-7 Countries, January
2020–October 2021 224
Fig. 15.5 Low Grades for Government Policy Responses
to COVID-19 225
Fig. 15.6 Changes in Public Opinion about Policy Priorities,
October 2020–October 2021 226
Fig. 15.7 Public Policy Priorities just after the Election, by Party
Identification 227
Fig. 15.8 Impact of COVID-19 Deaths on Party Support,
by Urbanness of Prefecture 230
Fig. 15.9 Is Ishin the Most Credible Party after the LDP? 231
Fig. 16.1 Cumulative COVID-19 Deaths, January 2020–March
2022 241
Fig. 16.2 COVID-19 Vaccine Doses Administered per Capita 243
Fig. 16.3 Unemployment Rate (%), Before and During
the Pandemic 244
Fig. 16.4 COVID-19 Deaths and Change in Leader Approval,
January–June 2020 248
Fig. 16.5 Search Interest in コロナ (Corona) in Japan, Google
Trends 249
LIST OF FIGURES xxiii
Fig. 17.1 Party positions in the trilemma: supply-side growth,

distribution, and fiscal discipline at the 2021 Lower
House Election 268
Fig. 18.1 Income Inequality in Japan, the United Kingdom,
and the United States 277
Fig. 18.2 GDP and Income Inequality 279
Fig. 18.3 Perceptions of income inequality in Japan: “Income
differences in your country are too large.” 281
Fig. 19.1 Share of Employment and Non-regular Employment
by Gender 292
Fig. 19.2 Effects on Perceptions that One’s Life is Heavily
Influenced by COVID-19 293
Fig. 19.3 Belief in Government Competence, Confidence
in Healthcare Responses, and Trust in Government
by Gender and Those with/without Children 294
Fig. 21.1 Support for constitutional revision among election winners 328
List of Tables
Table 2.1 Seats in HC 2019 election by party 15

Table 2.2 PR seats and votes by party in the House of Councillors
2019 election 16
Table 2.3 Organization-sponsored candidates in the HC 2019
election 17
Table 3.1 Votes and seats in the 2017 and 2021 general elections 25
Table 3.2 Determinants of SMD vote change 34
Table 4.1 The result of the 2018 presidential selection 46
Table 4.4 Districts where Hoshu Bunretsu was possible in 2021 53
Table 8.1 Parties and candidates in the 2021 general election 104
Table 9.1 Age of candidates by party 119
Table 9.2 Age of MPs by party 120
Table 9.3 Policy priorities of candidates under 40 124
Table 9.4 Policy preferences of candidates under 40 126
Table 10.1 Multinomial model of run choice 142
Table 11.1 Backgrounds of Cabinet Ministers under Abe, Suga,
and Kishida 153
Table 11.2 Backgrounds of Cabinet Ministers in the First Kishida
Cabinet 157
Table 12.1 What is most important for you in your voting decision
for this election? 180
Table 12.2 Preference for government led by the LDP or major
opposition party in future 181
xxv
xxvi LIST OF TABLES
Table 13.1 Top ten candidates by Twitter followers 186

Table 17.1 Japanese Government’s COVID-19 Fiscal Measures
2020–21 (billion yen) 260
Table 19.1 Womenomics Initiatives (2013–2020) 291
Table 19.2 % of women among candidates and elected MPs
by parties 297
Table 21.1 Yomiuri survey on constitutional amendment: 2017 vs.
2021 324
Table 21.2 Party manifesto positions on constitutional amendment 325
Table 21.3 Voter preferences on constitutional revision 326
Table 24.1 NHK candidate survey by party 365
CHAPTER 1
Introduction: Japan’s Coronavirus Election
Robert J. Pekkanen , Steven R. Reed, and Daniel M. Smith
This book analyzes the background and results of the October 31, 2021,
general election for Japan’s House of Representatives (HR). This is the
fourth volume of Japan Decides, following our analyses of the general
elections of 2012, 2014, and 2017 (Pekkanen et al. 2013, 2016, 2018).
Each previous volume analyzed an election in which Abe Shinzō led the
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to an overwhelming victory, in coali-
tion with Kōmeitō. This volume also follows an LDP-Kōmeitō victory,
but not an overwhelming one and one in which Abe was not the LDP
leader for the first time in a decade. Perhaps more significantly, this is the
R. J. Pekkanen (B)
Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA,
USA
e-mail: pekkanen@uw.edu
S. R. Reed
Faculty of Policy Studies, Chuo University, Tokyo, Japan
D. M. Smith
Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
e-mail: dms2323@columbia.edu
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature 1

Switzerland AG 2023
R. J. Pekkanen et al. (eds.), Japan Decides 2021,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-11324-6_1
2 R. J. PEKKANEN ET AL.
first (and we hope only) Japanese HR election held during the coron-
avirus (or COVID-19) pandemic. For that reason, this election will be of
broad comparative interest to scholars trying to make sense of the polit-
ical consequences of the global pandemic. We make our own arguments
about how the coronavirus pandemic affected the 2021 election in Japan
in the conclusion to this volume.
In the chapter that follows this Introduction, Robert J. Pekkanen and
Steven R. Reed provide more background and context to the election.
The chapter touches on several events on which later chapters will focus,
such as the coronavirus pandemic, the reorganization and campaign of the
opposition parties, the transitions in LDP leadership from Abe to Suga
Yoshihide to Kishida Fumio, and the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics,
but also sets the political stage through a discussion of the 2019 House
of Councillors (HC) election that preceded the fall 2021 HR election.
The third chapter, by Ko Maeda, argues that the results of the 2021
election seem superficially comparable to those of 2012, 2014, and
2017, with the LDP-Kōmeitō coalition maintaining a majority and the
opposition remaining fragmented. However, the chapter also identifies
important differences in this 2021 election. First, the single-member
district (SMD) races are becoming more volatile. Several veteran incum-
bents lost seats they had held for a long time. Second, Nippon Ishin no
Kai (Ishin) more than tripled its seats and further fragmented the opposi-
tion camp. Third, the largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party
(CDP) and several smaller opposition parties coordinated candidate nomi-
nations in SMDs and gained many districts previously held by the LDP.
Yet, the CDP’s dismal performance in the proportional representation
(PR) tier of the mixed-member electoral system led to its overall loss in
this election. The performance of the opposition parties is also taken up
later in the volume, as the next three chapters consider political parties
more specifically.
The first of these and the fourth chapter in the volume, by Kuniaki
Nemoto, focuses on the LDP’s internal party presidential election and
candidate nomination processes to analyze how the party prepared to
stay in power before the 2021 election. With the new presidential elec-
tion process, the party was able to replace an unpopular leader (Suga)
just before the election, although it did not choose the most popular
contender (instead choosing Kishida). Using various tools at the party’s
disposal, such as internal polls and the PR tier, the LDP tried to mini-
mize the fragmentation of the conservative vote, although ultimately it
1 INTRODUCTION: JAPAN’S CORONAVIRUS ELECTION 3
took place in 12 districts and the LDP lost to the opposition in five of
them. Overall, the LDP was able to avoid a major loss, even though it
was not able to increase its seats.
In Chapter 5, Robert J. Pekkanen and Steven R. Reed analyze the
opposition. They trace the evolution of the opposition parties from their
situation in late 2017 following the 2017 election. At that time, the major
opposition parties included the Party of Hope as the third largest party
after the collapse of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), but by the
2021 election, that party effectively no longer existed. The creation and
destruction of the persistently fragmented opposition is a major theme in
Japanese politics and of this chapter. The chapter also examines the coor-
dination among four parties on the left––the CDP, Japanese Communist
Party (JCP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), and Reiwa Shinsengumi––
which it argues was successful. Finally, the authors speculate on the future
of the opposition in Japan.
The sixth chapter returns to the governing coalition, this time exam-
ining Kōmeitō. Axel Klein and Levi McLaughlin argue that, in October
2021, Kōmeitō solidified its importance as a coalition partner to the LDP
and its influential place within the national government. The chapter
details how the party navigated its election campaign between contrasting
demands from the LDP and members of Sōka Gakkai, the lay Buddhist
organization that founded Kōmeitō in 1964 and remains the party’s, and
Japan’s, most potent vote-gathering bloc. It highlights the ways through
which Kōmeitō promoted social welfare initiatives in response to the
COVID-19 pandemic, how it mitigated the rise of Ishin in western Japan,
and how its historic links to the People’s Republic of China may grow in
importance as tensions rise in the region. The chapter also considers the
impact of scandals among its members, an overall trajectory of lowered
vote counts, and how changes underway within Sōka Gakkai may shape
Kōmeitō’s future and affect LDP electioneering and policymaking.
Following these three introductory chapters and the three focusing on
the main set of political parties, the volume proceeds with five chapters
that consider contemporary party politics in Japan from different angles:
Abe’s legacy, candidate selection, generational change in leadership, party
switching, and ministerial selection.
The first of these is written by Tobias Harris and focuses on the legacy
of one of Japan’s most dominant political figures, Abe Shinzō. After
resigning as prime minister and leader of the LDP in September 2020,
it was unclear what role Abe would play in Japanese politics. However,
as the LDP approached another leadership election in 2021––and as the

general election approached––Abe returned to prominence as a king-
maker, using his media presence and his clout within the LDP to influence
first the party’s presidential election and then the policy choices of the
new government of Prime Minister Kishida. This chapter describes the
sources of Abe’s power after leaving the premiership and details the ways
in which he used his power to influence the government’s agenda during
the first months of Kishida’s government.
Chapter 8, authored by Jochen Rehmert, examines candidate selec-
tion. The 2021 general election saw one of the highest levels of legislative
turnover in recent elections. Yet, this was not due to the coordina-
tion of candidates by parties of the progressive opposition, but rather
to the nomination practices and outcomes in the LDP and Kōmeitō.
While the LDP had to replace several resigning incumbents and remove
several others who were tainted by scandals, Kōmeitō’s internal selec-
tion rules forced a partial rejuvenation of its roster. In addition, both
the governing parties and the opposition saw conflicts over nominations
within their own ranks. The LDP was especially plagued by intraparty
conflicts over nominations after several incumbents from other conserva-
tive parties joined the party prior to the election. Socio-demographically,
candidates remain overwhelmingly male and close to retirement age.
In Chapter 9, Charles McClean examines generational change and
continuity in Japan’s political leadership. Young people are underrepre-
sented in most political institutions, and Japan’s House of Representatives
is no exception. While a few young challengers managed to capture
national headlines by defeating much older incumbents, the 2021 elec-
tion otherwise featured the fewest candidates and elected members of
parliament (MPs) under 40 years old in decades. McClean explores the
causes and consequences of this decline in young people running for
office. He finds that candidates under 40 were significantly more likely
than older candidates to say that they would prioritize education, child-
care, and employment if elected; were more supportive of strengthening
Japan’s defense capabilities; and were more positive toward enacting bills
to recognize same-sex marriage and promote LGBT awareness. These
patterns suggest that reforms aimed at increasing the number of young
legislators could have significant consequences for the policies that get
debated and ultimately implemented by the parliament.
In the tenth chapter, Jordan Hamzawi turns his lens on the
phenomenon of party switching in Japan. In the two decades since
electoral reform, Japan’s party system has been in constant flux. After
a slow build toward a predominantly two-party system, politics are
currently dominated by the LDP and its coalition partner Kōmeitō,
with an ever-changing roster of opposition parties vying for the place
of challenger. The 2021 election continued the recent state of political
(non)competition as opposition parties were unable to make a dent in the
LDP’s sizeable majority. While there are numerous contributing factors
that explain Japan’s anemic party competition, Hamzawi focuses on how
candidates navigate their partisan affiliation. He finds that candidates,
particularly candidates from the opposition, follow a pattern of switching
from weak parties to new parties, preferring the potential of a new party
over the issues with existing ones. Instead of slowly building strength
with a roster of seasoned candidates, Japan’s opposition parties constantly
collapse in on themselves because of candidate choices.
In the final chapter on party politics, Hiroki Kubo examines how and
why ministers are selected in Japanese cabinets under the three most
recent prime ministers. Kubo analyzes the outcomes of cabinet port-
folio allocation, comparing LDP faction seat shares and the percentage of
cabinet portfolios each secured in the six cabinets formed since 2017. His
analysis reveals that: First, there is overall proportionality between faction
seat shares andcabinet portfolios; second, there is nevertheless a relative
advantage enjoyed by the prime minister’s faction and the large main
factions; and third, independent LDP members are not disadvantaged
in portfolio allocation. In terms of seniority, relatively young MPs have
been included in the cabinet. In addition, the Kishida cabinet features
three female MPs, accounting for 15% of cabinet members. We return to
the broader issue of women’s representation in Japan later in the volume.
After these chapters on party politics, we turn to the campaign for the
next four chapters—on public opinion with a focus on COVID-19, social
media, youth turnout, and how COVID-19 affected the election results.
Chapter 12 is authored by Yukio Maeda and investigates public
opinion. The 2021 election results surprised journalists and pollsters in
Japan. This chapter explains why the LDP outperformed expectations by
examining media polls and coverage of three prime ministers from 2017
to 2021. Abe struggled to respond to the novel coronavirus while also
dealing with conventional corruption allegations. His successor, Suga,
initially received high approval ratings as people expected him to manage
the pandemic better than Abe. However, these expectations became
a liability when COVID-19 cases surged while Japan was hosting the
Summer Olympics. When Kishida succeeded Suga, COVID-19 cases were

rapidly declining, and the LDP subsequently won a victory in the 2021
election. Underestimating the impact of the public’s shifting views of
the government’s pandemic response may account for much of the gap
between election predictions and actual results.
Robert A. Fahey in Chapter 13 examines social media and the elec-
tion campaign. Since the use of social media in election campaigns was
made legal in 2013, platforms such as Twitter and Facebook have been
widely adopted by candidates in Japan’s elections. This chapter exam-
ines how social media platforms were used in the 2021 election, looking
at which candidates and parties chose to engage most heavily in online
campaigning, and at the issues, policies, and narratives which the various
parties’ candidates focused on in their social media messaging. LDP candi-
dates focused on the government’s track record and the success of the
COVID-19 vaccination program, while mainstream opposition candi-
dates’ online messaging largely focused on pocketbook and family issues.
The chapter concludes with an analysis of the Twitter follower networks of
both candidates and major media organizations, providing insight into the
extent of affective polarization on social media during the 2021 election
period.
In Chapter 14, Gill Steel looks at youth turnout in the election,
showing that the various mobilization efforts had very little effect on
young people’s participation. She claims that the LDP has depressed
young people’s engagement with politics in the various ways the party
(and through it, the state) depoliticizes politics. As part of this governing
strategy of depoliticization, the state has limited citizens’ opportuni-
ties for participation and has cultivated, or mandated, an atmosphere of
depoliticization that discourages citizen interest and engagement. The
state does so through depoliticizing schools, broadcasting, restricting
youth political activities, campaigning, and curtailing NPOs (nonprofit
organizations). Depoliticization means that young people do not receive
political information and cues from elites that impart a sense of the excite-
ment of politics or the legitimacy of political conflict through mainstream
channels.
Chapter 15 again returns to a theme of this volume, the influence of
the coronavirus pandemic on the election. Here, Michael F. Thies and
Yuki Yanai examine the impact of COVID-19 on voting behavior. When
the pandemic began, Japan’s parliamentary term had passed its halfway
point; the next general election was due before late autumn 2021. An
autumn 2020 election seemed likely, to slipstream in the wake of the

Tokyo Summer Olympics. When COVID-19 forced a year’s postpone-
ment of the Games, the government put off the election as well, gambling
for good news before the term ran out. Voters were largely dissatisfied
with the government’s pandemic response, and many opposed staging
the Olympics at all. In the event, no post-Olympics boost materialized.
But dramatic improvements in COVID-19 outcomes in the few weeks
between the election announcement and voting day led most voters to
focus on the economy instead, just in time for the gamble to pay off.
Nonetheless, the authors do find that urban prefectures with higher death
rates were less likely to support the ruling LDP, and interestingly, more
likely to support upstart Ishin.
After these four chapters on the campaign, we turn to a deeper anal-
ysis of the issues framing the election—from coronavirus policy to foreign
policy to the Olympics. These ten chapters dig into the issues that domi-
nated Japanese politics in the years, months, and weeks leading up to the
vote, in order to provide a rich understanding of the background context
of the 2021 election.
The first of these chapters, by Phillip Y. Lipscy, provides a deep analysis
of Japan’s COVID-19 response policy. What features of Japan’s COVID-
19 response stand out, and how are they best explained? Lipscy argues
that the Abe model of governance critically shaped both the strengths
and weaknesses of the Japan model of COVID-19 response. Japanese
officials have often promoted the Japan model as exemplary of how to
manage the pandemic without sacrificing fundamental democratic values
and civil liberties. However, key features of the model—such as an
emphasis on macroeconomic growth, avoidance of harsh lockdowns, and
making scientific experts the public face of the response––were compat-
ible with how former Prime Minister Abe governed Japan throughout his
tenure. The chapter also places Japan’s COVID-19 response in compara-
tive, cross-national context: Relative to other G7 countries, Japan stands
out for relatively low cases and deaths per capita, but the numbers must
be interpreted with caution and are largely in line with those of regional
peers. The chapter concludes with an early assessment of the COVID-19
response under the first six months of Prime Minister Kishida.
In Chapter 17, Kenya Amano and Saori N. Katada take on the central
questions of macroeconomic policy. Highly accommodative monetary
policy during nine years of Abenomics allowed fiscal expansion to become
the center of the Japanese government’s COVID-19 stimulus and the
further economic measures were the primary issue facing the 2021 elec-
tion. Under monetary constraints, the economic policy choice among
Japan’s conventional growth strategy, distribution, and fiscal discipline
creates a trilemma, whereby the government can pursue only two of
these three goals. In this election, the LDP-Kōmeitō coalition managed
to straddle between distribution and growth strategy, while exploiting
the policy space for the opposition parties. Although the coalition main-
tained its electoral majority, the inroads made by Ishin, Reiwa, and
the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) whose campaigns neglected
fiscal discipline in favor of both growth and distribution foreshadows the
challenge against the Japanese government’s future fiscal health.
In Chapter 18, Yeon Ju Lee investigates income inequality and the
election. The chapter examines how income inequality began to receive
attention from politicians and voters before the 2021 election. While
income inequality has dominated the political agenda in numerous coun-
tries around the world, it has not been a politically salient issue in
Japan even though it has been increasing since the 1980s. However,
income inequality became politically visible to voters and politicians as
the COVID-19 pandemic further strained the already stagnant economy,
having a direct impact on people, especially those who were less well off.
Both ruling and opposition parties responded to the public dissatisfaction
by introducing measures to address income inequality in their party plat-
forms, including Prime Minister Kishida’s vision of “New Capitalism” to
promote simultaneous growth and distribution.
In Chapter 19, Yesola Kweon furthers the investigation of a critical
topic: women’s representation. This chapter examines women’s represen-
tation in Japanese politics and the Japanese economy. In the economic
realm, Womenomics implemented under the Abe regime made several
meaningful improvements in women’s labor participation, especially for
those who have children. However, little progress was made in terms of
the gender wage gap and gender disparities in high-quality job employ-
ment. The COVID-19 pandemic also had a disproportionate impact on
women, parents, and those with non-regular jobs. This, in turn, led to
lower trust and confidence in the government and its policy responses
to the pandemic. The latter half of the chapter considers gender repre-
sentation in politics. The 2021 election saw a decrease in the number of
women representatives. As with previous elections, the ruling LDP had
the smallest share of female candidates and elected women legislators.
The chapter examines both supply-side and demand-side factors in order

to explain the lagging representation of women in Japanese politics.
In the next chapter, Michael Sharpe analyzes the issue of Black Lives
Matter (BLM) as well as its broader context in Japan. Although BLM was
more in the background of Japan’s 2021 election, compared to the 2020
election in the United States, it brought important issues of race and
racism into the national conversation. The chapter argues that BLM in
Japan follows a long pattern of ambivalence around race as the world’s
first non-white modern power. BLM in Japan has been successful in
highlighting the notions and attitudes that perpetuate antiblack racism
but has fallen short in joining concerted action among newer and older
excluded groups under an antiracist banner. Sharpe discusses BLM Japan’s
immediate impact, Japan’s racial gymnastics, the complexities of black
admiration and antiblack racism, and finally what BLM tells us about
race, racism, and coalition building possibilities. As Japan opens to immi-
gration, the realities of old and new racisms will increasingly take center
stage, with antiracist collective action and policy innovations becoming
critical to Japan’s future development as a liberal democracy.
Another crucial issue for Japanese democracy is constitutional revi-
sion. In Chapter 21, Kenneth McElwain explores the surprisingly muted
role that constitutional revision played in the 2021 election. While
former Prime Minister Abe had evinced a personal commitment to
amending the constitution during his tenure, his initiatives stalled due
to disagreements between the LDP and its coalition partner, Kōmeitō,
and conflicting priorities among LDP backbenchers. The COVID-19
pandemic further limited opportunities for serious deliberation of consti-
tutional change, and Abe’s resignation left the issue with no cheerleader
to push it onto the legislative agenda. Given the lower priority placed
on constitutional issues by Abe’s successors, opposition parties also saw
less reason to make protection of the constitution a centerpiece of their
election manifestos. As a result, for the first time since the 2012 election,
constitutional change became an afterthought in the campaign, with less
than 10% of voters seeing it as a policy priority.
Chapter 22 widens the lens to the international dimension of COVID-
19. Kerstin Lukner asks: Can we identify an explicit “COVID-19 foreign
policy” in Japan, despite the absence of such an issue as a campaign topic
in the 2021 general election? The chapter scrutinizes the way Tokyo has
been coping with the COVID-19 crisis at the bilateral, regional, and
multilateral levels as well as the rationales behind its responses. Lukner
argues that apart from backing the fight against the pandemic specifically
in its own neighborhood, Japan’s actions have been primarily guided by
its strategic competition with China––that is, the intention to increase its
regional influence by means of COVID-19-related health diplomacy.
In Chapter 23, Michael Green investigates broad questions of Japan’s
foreign policy. The 2021 election came at a time of major activism in
Japanese foreign and security policy but no candidate for the leader-
ship of the ruling LDP, nor the leaders of the major opposition parties,
challenged the broad strategic trajectory set by former Prime Minister
Abe. Voters appeared to understand that Abe’s focus on strengthening
the US-Japan alliance, deepening the US-Japan-India-Australia “Quad,”
investing in infrastructure and resilience in developing Asia, and increasing
deterrence capabilities vis-à-vis China together constituted the necessary
elements of a strategy to secure Japanese interests at a time of growing
geopolitical friction. Yet while there was no debate about new directions
in national security, the election debates did foreshadow some of the
major decisions the Kishida government will face in the coming years,
from technology decoupling to development of strike capability for the
Self-Defense Forces.
In the next chapter, Kristin Vekasi focuses on the role of China in
Japan’s election. In 2021, parties across the political spectrum were
overtly critical toward China’s human rights record, foreign policy, policy
toward Taiwan, and especially its territorial posture in the East China
Sea. Her analysis of candidate statements and party manifestos finds few
voices within the electorate or among political candidates arguing for
deeper engagement or a conciliatory policy toward China. Even economic
policy, typically a stabilizing element of the relationship, is increasingly
reflecting a more securitized orientation, as reflected in Japan’s proposed
Economic Security Bill and ministerial-level economic security position.
Vekasi argues that the LDP’s electoral victory may presage a more hawkish
China policy and increased defense spending. However, this prediction
must be tempered with the moderating influence of the LDP’s long-
time coalition partner, Kōmeitō, which alone put forward a more positive
vision for the future of Japan–China relations.
The Tokyo Olympics of 2020 (held in summer 2021) made headlines
for years in Japan and across the world. In Chapter 25, David Leheny
analyzes the event. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic made their
staging an unprecedented challenge, the 2020 Summer Olympics and
Paralympics had already been politically controversial, with initial public
skepticism giving way to more widespread enthusiasm, though dotted

with opposition given the wastefulness and corruption associated with
recent Games. The long delay in the Games, the public health risks associ-
ated with even spectator-less events, a series of astonishingly embarrassing
gaffes and revelations, and the collapse of projected economic benefits
all contributed to the possibility that they would be costly to the ruling
LDP in the 2021 election. Leheny describes the politics surrounding the
Games and their role in the 2021 election, particularly the challenges
associated with turning a major, controversial news story into a winning
issue for either the ruling parties or the opposition.
After these twenty-five chapters analyzing the election from a variety of
angles, the three editors of this book contribute a short overview of the
election. In this, they argue that the coronavirus pandemic profoundly
shaped the 2021 election by framing it as a competency election. This
probably hurt the CDP, but Ishin benefited as “competent” due to
its perception of regional success. The timing of the successful vaccine
rollout probably also influenced the way the pandemic affected the vote,
this time benefiting the LDP which might not have fared as well had the
election been held before the vaccine arrived.
References
Pekkanen, Robert J., Steven R. Reed, and Ethan Scheiner (eds.). 2013. Japan
Decides 2012: The Japanese General Election. Palgrave Macmillan.
Decides 2014: The Japanese General Election. Palgrave Macmillan.
Pekkanen, Robert J., Steven R. Reed, Ethan Scheiner and Daniel M. Smith
(eds.). 2018. Japan Decides 2017: The Japanese General Election. Palgrave
Macmillan.
CHAPTER 2
Japanese Politics Between 2017 and 2021
It was four long years from Japan’s October 22, 2017, election to its
October 31, 2021, election. It is relatively rare for the House of Repre-
sentatives to reach its full term (most recently in 2009 during the global
financial crisis), but the circumstances were clearly exceptional with a
worldwide pandemic disrupting societies and economies in a perhaps
unprecedented fashion (see Lipscy 2022; Lukner 2022; Amano and
Katada 2022; Thies and Yanai 2022). Even though its effects were really
felt on starting in 2020, the coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic is the
dominant feature of the 4 years from 2017 to 2021. Other major events
occurred in this period for Japan, notably the Tokyo Olympics (postponed
to 2021 from 2020 by the pandemic; see Leheny 2022); the accession of
a new emperor (Reiwa) in 2019; and, the “Trump shocks” to Japan’s
foreign policy (see Green 2022). In this chapter, we focus on some more
R. J. Pekkanen (B)
Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA,
USA
e-mail: pekkanen@uw.edu
S. R. Reed
Faculty of Policy Studies, Chuo University, Tokyo, Japan

Switzerland AG 2023
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-11324-6_2
14 R. J. PEKKANEN AND S. R. REED
explicitly party politics aspects of these developments. We discuss the

2019 House of Councillors election results; the rise of the Constitu-
tional Democratic Party (CDP) as the main opposition party (see also
Pekkanen and Reed 2018, 2022); and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and his successors (see also Harris 2022;
Nemoto, 2022). We also note for the record the accession of Emperor
Reiwa on May 1, 2019 (which is not discussed elsewhere in this volume)
succeeding his father, the Heisei Emperor after the latter’s abdication.
2019 House of Councillors Results

After the October 22, 2017, House of Representatives general election,
PM Abe was riding high (see Pekkanen et al. 2018 for analysis). His LDP
had taken a supermajority of 291 seats in a decisive rout. The opposition
was in disarray, with the main opposition party, the Democratic Party
of Japan (DPJ) splintering into a more liberal CDP and more conserva-
tive Party of Hope (Hope), with a few legislators retaining the DPJ label
(Pekkanen and Reed 2018). Ishin continued as a small conservative oppo-
sition party, and Komeito continued as the junior partner in the coalition
with the LDP (see Klein and McLaughlin 2018). Support for Abe in the
polls was high and he had already compiled a track record that would
make him arguably the most influential postwar Prime Minister. His first
major political test following the 2017 election came in 2019, with the
regular summer election for the House of Councillors . The LDP won
the July 21, 2019, HC election, marking the last in a string of six Abe
electoral victories (HR 2012 , 2014 , 2017; HC 2013 , 2016, 2019),
although of course Kishida would continue the run in 2021 (HR) (and
the LDP won the 2010 HC election). These 2019 HC electoral results
led one respected observer to detect a return to one-party dominance
(Jain 2020).
The HC uses a different electoral system than the HR to elect its HC
members. Elections are regularly held every three years for half of the
chamber (124 in 2019), with the other half being elected three years
later. Besides the fixed and staggered timing for elections, the HC differs
from the HR in that the HC combines a prefectural tier (usually SNTV
MMD) and an open-list PR tier, where voters can vote for a party or
a candidate (and not a SMD tier and closed list PR bloc tier). District
magnitude in the prefectural tier varies from 1 to 6 (Tokyo is the only 6,
and there are two single seats representing two prefectures each) for 74
2 JAPANESE POLITICS BETWEEN 2017 AND 2021 15
total members in 45 districts. Table 2.1 provides the seat outcomes in the
HC election for each party. In the end, the LDP won 57 of the 124 seats
being contested, putting its overall total in the HC at 113. This meant its
seat total was slightly down as a result of the election, but the LDP would
still control the chamber, presaging the results of the 2021 election. With
Komeito pulling in 28 seats, the coalition had a solid majority in the
chamber. The Party of Hope had been extinguished, losing its only seat.
The CDP was the second largest party at 32 seats, up 8 from its pre-
election total. In several ways, the 2019 HC election was consistent with
the results of the 2021 election.
Japan’s HC open-list proportional representation (OLPR) feature,
introduced in 2001, allows voters to choose not only a party but also a
candidate (Reed 2021). Voters cast a single vote. They may cast it either
for a party or for a candidate. All candidates must be on a party list. The
number of seats allocated to a party is determined by the sum of the
party vote and the vote for all of the candidates on its list. Seats won by
the party are then allocated to candidates in the order of the number of
personal votes they received. The key to winning a seat is, first and fore-
most, to get nominated by a large party. Few voters go to the trouble
of writing a candidate’s name on the ballot and simply vote for a party.
Between 2001 and 2016, the average percentage of voters who went to
the trouble to vote for a candidate was 28%.
Winning candidates are often sponsored by large interest groups. A
“sponsored” candidate is one chosen by the interest group. The group
asks a party to nominate their candidate but takes responsibility for
electing her. Parties, of course, are delighted to nominate a candidate
with a high probability of victory based on voters who might not even
support the party otherwise. The primary support groups for both CDP
Table 2.1 Seats in HC 2019 election by party
LDP CDP Komeito DPP Ishin JCP Hope Other Total
Pre-election 123 24 25 23 13 14 1 15 245

After 2019 113 32 28 21 16 13 0 22 245
election
District 38 9 7 3 5 3 0 9 74
PR 19 8 7 3 5 4 0 3 50
Source Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan

and DPP are labor unions. When the Democrats split, unions were forced
to choose which party they would ask to nominate their candidate. The
choices they made recreated the split between the two socialist parties and
labor federations of the era that preceded the 1994 reforms.
Table 2.2 shows the votes and seats won by the parties in the PR tier
in 2019. The CDP won 7,917,719 votes and eight seats in the PR tier.
Unions sponsored five candidates for the CDP and all won seats. Their
votes totaled 689,719 providing 8.9% of the party’s total vote but 47.3%
of its candidate votes. The DPP won 3,481,053 votes and three seats,
both less than half of the CDP totals. The contrast is even greater if one
examines the number of votes received by the party: The CDP received
almost three times the DPP vote. Unions sponsored five of candidates
for the DPP and those candidates won all three of the seats available
but two of their union candidates failed to secure seats. Union spon-
sored candidates delivered 1,101,812 votes to the DPP, 1.7 times more
than union sponsored candidates provided the CDP. The religious group
Risshō Kōseikai (RK), which had been supporting the Democrats since
the 2000 election, also sponsored a candidate and had him nominated by
the DPP winning 143,467 votes but no seat. The union sponsored candi-
dates provide 31.7% of the DPP’s total vote and 84.3% of its candidate
vote. Including RK, sponsored candidates provided 34.2% of the DPP’s
total vote and 91.1% of its candidate vote.
The threshold of victory for candidates running on the CDP ticket
was 73,787 while that for the DPP was 256,928. Toshiba and Japanese
Association of Metal, Machinery and Manufacturing Workers (JAM)
candidates failed to win a seat because the DPP did not command enough
support in the general public and both would have won if they had run for
the CDP. The difference is due to the percentage of CDP and DPP voters
who voted for the party instead of the candidate, 84.6% for the CDP and
Table 2.2 PR seats and votes by party in the House of Councillors 2019
election
LDP CDP Komeito DPP Ishin JCP
PR seats 19 8 7 3 5 4
PR share 35.4% 15.8% 13.1% 7% 9.8% 9%
PR votes 17,712,373 7,917,719 6,536,336 3,481,053 4,907,844 4,483,411
Source Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan

Table 2.3
Organization Votes Party
Organization-sponsored
candidates in the HC UA Zensen 260,324 DPP
2019 election JAW 258,507 DPP
Electrical power workers 256,928 DPP
Toshiba 182,586 DPP (defeated)
Jichiro 157,848 CDP
JTU 148,309 CDP
JPGU 144,751 CDP
NTT 143,472 CDP
JAM 143,472 DPP (defeated)
Private RR 104,339 CDP
Source Authors’ analysis
62.5% for the DPP. The DPP attracted few party votes and depended
heavily on the candidate votes. Table 2.3 shows the votes received by
candidates sponsored by organizations in the HC 2019 election.
The CDP retained more of the 2016 Democratic vote than the DPP.
The DPP did better in rural than urban municipalities. Both parties did
better in those municipalities that experienced less of a decline in turnout
(95% of municipalities experienced a drop in turnout). Having a candidate
running in the prefecture increases the vote of both parties as does having
an incumbent in either house of the Diet. The presence of a Communist
candidate in the prefecture reduces the DPP but not the CDP vote. The
Liberal vote in 2016 increases the CDP vote but not the DPP vote despite
the fact that Ozawa Ichirō, the Liberal leader, chose to join the DPP. The
Liberals appear to follow their policy preferences and not their leader.
Until Ozawa’s decision, he and the party had been against nuclear power
plants and in favor of cooperating with the JCP.
Hope and After: The Opposition

The chapter on the Opposition covers this ground in more detail
(Pekkanen and Reed 2022), but the outlines are important for setting
the stage for this election volume. In the run-up to the 2017 election,
the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), reconstituted as the Democratic
Party (Minshintō) imploded in spectacular fashion, marking the effective
demise of the second most successful party in Japanese political history
(Pekkanen and Reed 2018). Lawmakers streamed from the party into the
Party of Hope, led by insurgent Tokyo Governor Koike Yuriko. On the

heels of a decisive victory in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly as Toky-
oites First (Tomin Faasuto), Koike turned her local party national as the
Party of Hope. Fear was a better description for the emotions that this
transformation engendered in both the DPJ and the LDP.
The DPJ suffered a string of defections to Hope, and the party leader
Maehara Seiji seemed ready to dissolve the party in order to be absorbed
by Hope. However, more progressive DPJ legislators balked at joining
the Party of Hope—largely because of a (perceived or real) litmus test on
security issues) (Pekkanen and Reed 2018, p. 87) Instead, led by Edano
Yukio, they formed the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. In the
2017 election, the CDP placed second and Hope placed third. The failure
of Hope and the relative success of the CDP (Pekkanen and Reed 2018,
pp. 86–89) left the conservative opposition in disarray. After the dust
settled, some of Hope’s candidates defected to the CDP, many formed
a new conservative opposition party they called the DPP, five candidates
to the right of the LDP who had been affiliated with Kokoro (previ-
ously the Party for Future Generations) changed their name yet again,
this time retaining Koike’s label, Hope, and a few chose no party at
all. DPP support in the polls was zero. In November 2020, DPP leader
Tamaki Yuichiro signaled that the DPP was no longer interested in coop-
erating with the other opposition parties by using his question time and
not mentioning the Science Council scandal (a scandal embroiling PM
Suga, who didn’t appoint six professors to the advisory council, because,
it was alleged, of their political views). He also began talks with Ishin and
the LDP on constitutional revision. Heading into the 2021 election, the
leading opposition party was clearly the CDP with 110 seats, a progres-
sive alternative to the LDP. The Japanese Communist Party led the other
smaller opposition parties, but held only a dozen seats. Ishin held 11 and
the DPP 8.
Abe and After: 2020 Resignation and Replacements

The Abe administration from the 2012 elections through the 2014 and
2017 elections delivered consecutive landslide victories. Abe became the
most powerful prime minister in Japan’s postwar history (see Lipscy and
Hoshi 2021; Harris 2020). He also became its longest serving prime
minister, before his eventual resignation in September 2022. The Abe
administration maintained relatively high cabinet support rates between
elections and successfully enacted bold policy initiatives, some of which

had been sitting on the LDP’s back burner since the 1960s. Each of
our three previous volumes documented and analyzed these successes
(Pekkanen et al. 2013, 2015, 2018). During this period, Abe can lay
claim to being the most successful LDP prime minister in history.
After 2017, however, Abe’s support rates dropped and he announced
he would resign in August 2020 for health reasons much like he had in
2007. He was replaced in September 2020 by Suga Yoshihide who began
with high expectations reflected in his cabinet support rates which soon
evaporated, much like Abe’s first term and both of the LDP prime minis-
ters who succeeded him (Fukuda Yasuo and Aso Taro). Like Koizumi
Junichiro in 2005, Abe in 2020 proved to be a hard act to follow. Suga’s
popularity dropped (Maeda 2022) and he would be out in a year—very
much like Fukuda Yasuo after he succeeded Abe in 2007–2008. Suga
soon demonstrated continuity with the Abe administration, declaring his
commitment to revising the constitution, his support continued to be
based on the same reasons, i.e., there is no alternative, continuing to
stonewall any questions about scandals even when most of the public did
not believe he had explained properly, and soon had a new scandal of his
own, the Science Council of Japan scandal, very much in the same mold
as Abe’s scandals. The LDP wanted to hold an election in 2020, while
Suga had the highest support rates he was ever likely to see. However,
Komeito had just emerged from an internal lockdown to protect their
members from COVID-19 and to protect Soka Gakkai from charges of
spreading COVID-19 (Klein and McLaughlin 2022 ). Suga agreed to put
COVID-19 first and wait until 2021. As a result, he would not be PM
when the election was held (see Nemoto 2022).
In December 2020, Suga admitted defeat and canceled his Go To
Travel (subsidized domestic travel and accommodations to promote
domestic tourism) over the holidays. On the same day, an NHK poll
showed a drop in cabinet support of 14 points and a 17 point increase
in non-support. A Yomiuri poll showed a 29 point drop in support rates,
tying Aso for the worst record. They also noted one difference between
Aso and Suga: The LDP led the DPJ in support 37% to 23% but the LDP
lead the CDP by 47% to 4%. There still is no alternative. One difference:
When Abe was unpopular, the problem was trust in Abe himself (Maeda
and Reed). When Suga’s approval fell, the reason given for non-support
was policy, almost certainly referring to COVID.
In April 2021, Suga ordered the dumping of diluted but contam-

inated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Perhaps even
worse for him, there were three by-elections in April 2021 all won by
the opposition. Losing in Nagano was normal but the other two losses
were responses to corruption scandals. In Hokkaido, the incumbent had
resigned and the LDP did not field a candidate. In Hiroshima, the incum-
bents had been convicted of election law violations and, though the LDP
fielded a candidate, neither local LDP assembly members nor prominent
LDP leaders were able to participate because they had been implicated
as well. In both the latter cases, turnout dropped drastically because the
LDP was unable to mobilize its supporters. These by-elections set off
some warning bells in the LDP.
Then, in July 2021, The LDP gained seats but performed well under
expectations in the Tokyo Prefectural Assembly election. This was the
same election in 2017 in which the LDP was drubbed by Tokyoites First.
The only good news for the LDP was that Komeito shifted their support
from Tokyoites First to the LDP. CDP-JCP cooperation also worked very
well. The CDP almost doubled its seats.
A third electoral warning bell rang in August 2021 for the LDP when
the candidate that received Suga’s full support lost the Yokohama mayoral
election finishing far behind the candidate supported by the CDP and
JCP. The LDP did surveys of each district for a general election that indi-
cated that the party would win 240 seats, a loss of 40 but still a majority
with Kōmeitō. However, it also found that many LDP candidates were
on the cusp of losing. Under these circumstances, Suga announced his
resignation and the search was on for his replacement.
On September 29, 2021, the LDP held its party presidential elec-
tion (Nemoto 2022). The leading candidates were Kishida Fumio (who
won), Kōno Tarō (who was most popular with the public), Takaichi Sanae
(who had Abe’s backing and a sterling hawk’s profile), and Noda Seiko.
Ishiba Shigeru had declined to run. Kishida Fumio won the election and
was duly also elected as Japan’s Prime Minister. However, he saw only
a modest bump in support—hardly a huge honeymoon period (Maeda
2022). This set the stage for the election of October 31, 2021, analyzed
in this volume.
Bibliography
Amano, Kenya, and Saori Katada. 2022. “Economic Policy Trilemma: Macroeco-
nomic Politics in the 2021 Election.” In Robert J. Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed,
Daniel M. Smith (eds.), Japan Decides 2021: The Japanese General Election.
New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Green, Michael. 2022. “Foreign Policy and Defense Issues in Japan’s 2021
Election.” In Robert J. Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, and Daniel M. Smith
(eds.), Japan Decides 2021: The Japanese General Election. New York: Palgrave
Macmillan.
Harris, Tobias. 2020. The Iconoclast. Hurst: New York.
Harris, Tobias. 2022. “Abe’s Legacy.” In Robert J. Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed,
and Daniel M. Smith (eds.), Japan Decides 2021: The Japanese General
Election. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Jain, Purnendra. 2020. “Japan’s 2019 Upper House Election: Solidifying Abe,
the LDP and Return to a One-Party Dominant Political System.” Asian
Journal of Comparative Politics 5 (1): 23–37.
Klein, Axel, and Levi McLaughlin. 2018. “Komeito 2017: New Complications.”
In Robert J. Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, Ethan Scheiner, and Daniel M. Smith
Macmillan.
Klein, Axel, and Levi McLaughlin. 2022. “Kōmeitō in 2021: Strategizing
Between the LDP and Sōka Gakkai.” In Robert J. Pekkanen, Steven R.
Reed, and Daniel M. Smith (eds.), Japan Decides 2021: The Japanese General
Election. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Leheny, David. 2022. “The Olympics in the 2021 Election.” In Robert J.
Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed and Daniel M. Smith (eds.), Japan Decides 2021.
Lipscy, Phillip Y., and Takeo Hoshi (eds.). 2021. The Political Economy of the
Abe Government and Abenomics Reform. New York and London: Cambridge
University Press.
Lipscy, Phillip Y. 2022. “Japan’s Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic.” In
Robert J. Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, and Daniel M. Smith (eds.), Japan
Decides 2021: The Japanese General Election. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Lukner, Kerstin. 2022. “Covid-19: The International Dimension.” In Robert J.
Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, and Daniel M. Smith (eds.), Japan Decides 2021:
The Japanese General Election. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Maeda, Yukio., and Reed, Steven R. 2021. “The LDP under Abe.” In Takeo
Hoshi & Phillip Lipscy (eds.), The Political Economy of the Abe Government
and Abenomics Reforms ‚ 87–108. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108921145.004
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General Election. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Nemoto, Kuniaki. 2022. “How the Liberal Democratic Party Avoided a Loss
in 2021.” In Robert J. Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, and Daniel M. Smith
Macmillan.
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Party Back to Third Force.” In Robert J. Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed, Ethan
Scheiner, and Daniel M. Smith (eds.), Japan Decides 2017: The Japanese
General Election. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
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Second Party and a Third Force.” In Robert J. Pekkanen, Steven R. Reed,
Daniel M. Smith (eds.), Japan Decides 2021: The Japanese General Election.
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(eds.). 2018. Japan Decides 2017: The Japanese General Election. New York:
Palgrave Macmillan.
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Macmillan.
CHAPTER 3
The 2021 Election Results: Continuity

and Change
Ko Maeda
Prime Minister Kishida Fumio dissolved the House of Representatives

(HR) on October 14, 2021, and set the election date for October
31. Unlike the last two general elections in 2014 and 2017 that were
early elections, the legislators who served until this dissolution almost
completed their four-year terms. Also, unlike the last two elections, Abe
Shinzō was no longer the prime minister. The ruling coalition went into
this election with a prime minister who took office only 10 days before
the dissolution.
This was the ninth HR election conducted under the mixed-member
majoritarian electoral system introduced in the 1994 electoral law reform.
At stake were all 465 seats of the chamber. The single-member district
(SMD) tier elects 289 members, and the proportional representation (PR)
tier fills 176 seats from 11 regional districts. Each voter casts two ballots,
one for each tier.
K. Maeda (B)
University of North Texas, Denton, TX, USA
e-mail: Ko.Maeda@unt.edu

Switzerland AG 2023
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-11324-6_3
24 K. MAEDA
The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and

Kōmeitō, as always, coordinated candidate nominations in SMDs so that
no district would have candidates from both parties. The LDP fielded
candidates in 277 SMDs and Kōmeitō in nine. The three districts that
did not have a candidate from either of them (Tokyo 15th, Kanagawa
1st, and Nara 3rd) had incumbent legislators who were close to the LDP
but ran as independent candidates.1 Thus, each of the 289 SMDs of the
country had one candidate who represented the LDP-Kōmeitō coalition
either officially or implicitly.
The largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) sought
cooperation with other opposition parties to form a unified front to
compete against the coalition. On September 8, leaders of four oppo-
sition parties—the CDP, the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), the Social
Democratic Party (SDP), and Reiwa Shinsengumi—agreed on policy
principles, and the four parties then worked to coordinate candidate
nominations (See Rehmert 2022). Two opposition parties, the Demo-
cratic Party for the People (DPP) and Nippon Ishin no Kai (hereafter
referred to simply as “Ishin”; it is also known as the Japan Innovation
Party), did not join this four-party alliance. Yet, the DPP did not field
its candidates in the districts where there was a CDP incumbent and vice
versa.
The approval rate of the Kishida cabinet was 40.3% according to Jiji
Tsushin’s survey conducted on October 8 to 11.2 Right before the last
general election in 2017, the cabinet approval rate was 37.1%.3
Table 3.1 shows the results of the election, juxtaposed with the 2017
election for comparison. The ruling coalition reduced their combined seat
share from 67.3% to 63.0% (including ex-post nominations). Although
the coalition won a two-thirds majority in every general election since
2012, it failed to do so this time. The largest opposition CDP won 96
seats. Although it may seem like a major gain from 54 in 2017, the party’s
seat share in fact declined from what it had right before the election (109
seats).4 The JCP and the SDP also reduced their seats. The biggest winner
of this election was Ishin, which more than tripled its seats.
Voter turnout was 55.9%, according to the official report by the
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. That was an increase
from 53.7% in 2017, but still the third-lowest turnout among the postwar
HR elections. The number of female HR members declined slightly from
47 (10.1% of the total seats) in 2017 to 45 (9.7%) in this election. The
Table 3.1 Votes and seats in the 2017 and 2021 general elections
LDP Kōmeitō CDP Ishin JCP SDP Hope Others Indep. Total
SMD Candidates 277 9 63 47 206 19 198 44 73 936

(2017)
3
Total votes 26,500,777 832,453 4,726,326 1,765,053 4,998,932 634,770 11,437,601 211,252 4,315,028 55,422,193
Average 49.9% 48.2% 39.1% 19.6% 12.7% 17.4% 30.1% 2.5% 30.8%
vote %
Seats 215 8 17 3 1 1 18 0 26 289
PR Total votes 18,555,717 6,977,712 11,084,890 3,387,097 4,404,081 941,324 9,677,524 729,207 55,757,552
(2017)
Vote % 33.3% 12.5% 19.9% 6.1% 7.9% 1.7% 17.4% 1.3% 100%
Seats 66 21 37 8 11 1 32 0 176
Total Seats 281 29 54 11 12 2 50 0 26 465

(2017)
Seat % 60.4% 6.2% 11.6% 2.4% 2.6% 0.4% 10.8% 0.0% 5.6% 100%
(continued)
THE 2021 ELECTION RESULTS: CONTINUITY AND CHANGE
25
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the meaning of words that Mr. Winter had spoken to her mother.
"He said some people have to take their pleasure like a dog snatches a
bone—with an eye on the whip—father. What's that signify?"
"Who was he speaking about?"
"I don't know. He said it to mother, and she laughed and told him that
pleasure took that way would be half pain."
"It means—it means—nothing at all. Just a way of speaking. Hungry

dogs will steal bones—and whips will find 'em, soon or late. And all
pleasure's half pain when you grow up. The thing is to be young, like you,
Avis. Then pleasure's real I hope."
"Would you like for me to marry Bob Elvin, father?"
"Would you like to?"
"He asked me last Sunday going to chapel, and I said I would; and he's
coming next Sunday to beg we may be tokened."
An idea so great had occupied Jacob's mind fully enough at another

moment. But now there was no room for it.
"I knew he was going to, yet didn't think he'd have the cheek for another
year."
"I love him with all my heart, and grandmother thinks he's a very good,
proper-minded young man. She's agreeable; but she says it mustn't be for a
full year, till I'm over eighteen."
"Quite right. I'll talk to Master Bob next Sunday."
"Are you vexed, or pleased about it?"
"Why, I'm both, my dear. Vexed to think how the time flies—vexed in a
sort of way to find you're wife-old. Yet that's foolishness, isn't it? And
pleased that you've fallen in love with an honest, hard-working man."
"You won't dress him down, or say he's looked above him, or anything
like that?"
"I don't know what I'll say. Certainly not that. Run in now. You've given
me something to think about."
"Mother likes Bob very much indeed."
"I don't know anybody that hasn't a good word for him."
"And I'm well thought upon too, father."
"Why not, Avis; why not?"
"Nothing can ever come between me and Bob," she said, then left him,
and he forgot her instantly.
His thoughts drifted through the familiar channels and he read pregnant
and personal things into Winter's jest. He began at the old starting point,
strove to bring a judicial mind to bear upon the question, asked himself, for
the thousandth time, if he had ever found a cause to suspect any man but
this man, or associate with Margery the name of another. He remembered
that with some exceptions, now faint in vanished years, he had never done
so. Once or twice during their early married days, a dog-fancier had spoken
to Margery in words too free and easy for his taste; but no man remained in
their united lives save Winter. His wife was not a woman who particularly
enjoyed male society, or strove to challenge the other sex. So far as he
knew, her acquaintance did not number a dozen men of her own generation.
To this fact he always returned, and it increased rather than abated his
tribulation. He told himself, falsely, that had she appreciated male society
and been at her best and happiest in it, innocence would be far easier to
assume; he assured himself that he would not have minded that. But there
was only one who could not be shut out of her life and who, despite
handsome inducement to do so, would not go out of it.
The words overheard by Avis might mean much; and even more
importance he attached to Margery's answer. A woman who was doing
wrong with her eyes open, and suffering accordingly, was just the woman to
have replied so.
He worked himself into a fever and fell upon days of gloom darker than
the weather.
Accidents contrived to throw Shipley Farm much into his thoughts, for
illness fell upon it. An epidemic that was filling half the homes of Brent
with sickness reached the vale, and first Amelia was stricken down, then
her younger nephew. Both were seriously ill for a time and the old woman's
life became endangered. The parish nurse was too fully occupied to assist
them, and since neither could be moved, it became a needful charity that
their neighbours lent necessary aid. Samuel Winter tended his brother, while
a cousin—one of the nurses from the Asylum not far distant—obtained
leave to wait on Amelia. The old woman survived, but was kept in her
chamber for some weeks. Then the nurse left again and Avis and Auna were
glad to be of daily service. Adam also began to recover. Margery, however,
so far as her husband knew, had not visited Shipley Farm during the
progress of this misfortune. He neither forbade her to do so, nor commented
on the fact that she kept away, though, according to his custom, he weighed
its significance and now felt glad and now read more into it than appeared.
Of late he had sometimes struggled from his torment by the road of

preoccupation, and striven to busy himself for other people. Opportunity
did not lack, for the winter was long and hard, and there came a day when,
out of good-will alone, he set off to visit an old man—a friend of his dead
father—who lived at Totnes and was reported in the extremity of need.
Only the workhouse waited for him, nor did Bullstone know any means to
avert this doom, since the ancient soul lived on after the world could offer
no other place for him; but Jacob departed to inquire if anything might be
done, and it was understood that he would stop at Brent on returning from
Totnes, sup with his father-in-law, who desired to speak with him, and
return at a late hour to Red House.
The day was overclouded from the north and snow promised to fall ere
long. Those who best understood the signs prophesied a stern spell, for frost
had hardened the ground and the temperature kept very low. At noon the
sun sometimes moistened the ice and thawed a little of the mud; then the
frost returned as the light failed. Fruit-growers welcomed the cold to hold
back bud; but farmers, now beginning to expect their lambs, desired it not.
As for Jacob, the weather braced him physically. He set off, took train to
Totnes and presently found himself anticipated. The old man whom he had
gone to cheer was stricken with illness and already comatose. He did not
recognise Bullstone, and his visitor, glad rather than sorry that death had
come to the rescue, retraced his way, being informed that money could not
add to the dying man's comfort, or prolong his life.
Having heard that oranges were a valuable fruit against the epidemic, he
thought to take a dozen home and leave them at Shipley Farm. He debated
this problem in the train on the way back to Brent, and argued long with
himself as to the propriety of such a step. He found himself uncertain, yet
the idea had thrust into his mind and he hesitated to dismiss it. He regretted
having thought of it; then he grew impatient with himself and determined to
follow the impulse. He told himself that, whatever value might be set upon
his gift, his motive was one of pure kindness. Then he pictured Winter
receiving the oranges and perhaps laughing in secret as he accepted them.
Once more he determined not to take them; but pursued the subject, in his
laborious fashion that ever magnified trifles, and again decided that he
would do so. It was typical of his mind, at this season, that already it began
to lose sense of proportion; and while he exaggerated every incident
involving the inhabitants of Shipley Farm, upon other far more momentous
matters, he decided instantly and not seldom more swiftly than sound
judgment had warranted. He was impetuous when he might reasonably
delay, and where no question really existed and the problem's solution
mattered nothing, he would fret and exhaust himself.
On reaching Brent he entered the shop of Jeremy Huxam to make his

purchase. Jane was serving, but called Jeremy as his brother-in-law
appeared. Then she put the oranges into a bag, took the money for them and
left her husband with Jacob.
"I haven't forgot you are wishful to drop this," said the elder; "but shops
are not in my line as you know, and it's a pity, if you ask me, that you can't
stomach this work, especially as you've done so well at it."
"I'm not going to throw up the sponge, be sure," promised Jeremy. "I
shall fight on till the right occupation offers. But, if the inner nature turns
and the gorge rises, then you may be sure you're not doing the work you
were planned to do. However, I shall come to it. I always trust the future
and I always trust my fellow-man. I've been a square peg in a round hole all
my life, Jacob; but after such an apprenticeship, I feel tolerable sure that the
next billet will be the chosen one. Jane and I have shone through a fog ever
since we have been married you may say; but fog or not, we have shown
our light and done our best, and my mother is as certain as I am myself that
my gifts are only kept back."
"Haberdashery you're craving for, so Margery tells me."
"My natural bent I believe to be there," admitted Jeremy.
"Then look ahead and keep your mouth shut," advised his brother-in-
law, who could see farther into the fortunes of other men than his own.
"Stop where you are," he continued, "and leave the future to time. I
should have thought you could see that the big chance is coming for
yourself without any help."
"You're a deep one," murmured Jeremy, "and what you see was also
seen by another good friend—the best I've got in the world. I mean Jane, of
course. She hinted in secret that when father and mother retire, it would be
in the course of nature for me to go to the post-office and take on the shop.
But they haven't mentioned it and I'm far too delicate minded to do so. Not
that I couldn't rise to the post-office as well as the business—I could; but I
mustn't touch such a great subject yet."
"You needn't touch it. But stop whining over the smell of green stuff,
and keep a stiff upper lip, and show yourself a good man of business and
keen and capable at figures and so on. Then your parents will come to see
for themselves you can fill their shoes presently, and very likely invite you
to get well into the saddle with their help before they go. Jane's trustworthy
and clever, and you're the prime favourite with your mother. She's a human
being where you're concerned, and you know you'll win her right enough.
And your father would far sooner pass the business over to you, and keep
his hand on it, than sell."
Jeremy brightened.
"He would, because then his occupation wouldn't be exactly gone,

would it? He'd look after me, and it would take a considerable amount of
his time, I dare say."
Then he praised Jacob.
"You've got a business head without a doubt," he declared. "It's a great

thing to have an eye that pierces the future like yours. I have the habit of
looking ahead also, but my future's never too clear to me. However, I've got
undying hope. I beat you there. And if the chance offers with father some
day, you might sound him—just in a vague and delicate way. It's high
politics and I wouldn't trust myself, nor yet Jane, to breathe it. But it might
very well come from you, I dare say. See what Margery thinks; I know my
good's hers."
Bullstone restrained a contempt for his brother-in-law, which he had

always found compatible with good-natured regard, and promised to hold
the matter in mind.
"I'm supping with them to-night by appointment," he said, "and I'll get
over there now, for the governor wants to see me; but I shan't mention these
high matters yet a while; and meantime you put a good face on your
oranges and lemons and show yourself a little sharper at pounds, shillings
and pence."
Then he took his bag of fruit and went his way. Dusk had come down
and only a golden eye or two from some small shop window shot the
gloaming. It was nearly dark at six o'clock, and though no flake had fallen,
the air already to Jacob's nose seemed to smell of snow.
Mr. Huxam was out when he reached the post-office and from a remark
that related to the far past, Jacob plunged into deep waters. His mood was
amiable, but, as often happened with his mother-in-law, from whom the
passing years separated him more and more widely in opinion, conversation
tended to exasperate him and run him into extremes of statement he would
not have uttered in a calm moment.
On this occasion, he had himself to thank and, looking back afterwards,

perceived the tremendous significance of that encounter.
There had died a man concerning whom few good things could be said.
Marsden Blake, a landowner of wealth and position, who succeeded his
father as lord of Brent manor, had been killed while shooting big game in
Africa.
For the Huxams the tragedy possessed some interest, since it was this
man whom their eldest son had died to save nearly twenty years ago. As a
boy he had stopped Blake's runaway horse and preserved the young man's
life together with his companion's; but he had lost his own in so doing.
Jacob reminded Judith of the fact and how she had told him that
Providence had permitted the death of Thomas Huxam for a good end,
destined some day to appear.
"What d'you think of that matter now?" he asked. "Are you going to say
that Blake wouldn't have been better dead and your son better living?
What's Blake's record? A wife that died of a broken heart, a wasted estate,
gambling, wrong-doing and now dead—smashed to rags and bones by a
rhinoceros on the Zambesi."
"Yes, and what's my son's record? What do you suppose he's been doing
these twenty years? Better work—far better work than even he could have
done on earth. He went, because he was ripe to go; and as for the other, he
had his chance, as the worst have, but his end was preordained. If there'd
been good hidden under his evil, then, when a young saint died to save him,
he would have seen the Light, like Paul, and understood his Maker's mercy
and turned to the Cross. But he was lost from the womb, and the one good
thing you can say about him is this: that the Lord used him as a tool in the
matter of Thomas—not Thomas in the matter of him as I thought at the
time."
"A funny tool—a drunken, dissolute sweep like that to blot out your
fine boy."
"God uses strange weapons—strange in our eyes, yet always perfect for
His purpose."
History repeats itself and Jacob answered in a phrase of Xenophanes,

though of that sage he had certainly never heard. But thoughts of men echo
and re-echo down the centuries, as conditions are iterated by the
reverberation of history.
"Doubt is extending over everything," he said, "and you stand for a sort
of faith we seldom see, mother. In my young days we spoke with a good
deal more certainty than our children do; but all institutions are weaker than
of old. The Law's weaker, the Church is weaker, faith is weaker. There's a
spirit abroad to run black into white and turn everything grey. Bad men ain't
hung like they used to be, but wrangled over and often let off for false pity;
sermons ain't preached like I used to hear. Everything's toned down and
softened, and modern parsons will go through their discourse without
daring to name hell."
"How d'you know that, since you never go to church?" asked Mrs.
Huxam.
"My neighbours tell me. I hear about the changes from my friend,
William Marydrew,—a great church-goer and very keen in his intellects, for
all his years. He says that in the old days the clergy used to thunder and
flash the Word down, like lightning, on the people; but now they argue and
palter and mark time, so that folk go out of church as doubtful as when they
went in. It's all education, and men's brains getting larger and their sense of
justice increasing."
"Don't you think it," answered Judith. "Their brains will land mankind
in the madhouse at the rate we're going in some directions. Are right and
wrong other than right and wrong because godless men; for their own base
ends, try to mix 'em?"
"I don't know; but I do know that a good deal of the world's work is
standing still thanks to education. Labour has got such a lot to talk about
nowadays, that it spends half its time chattering; and the money is always
the subject nowadays, never the work that's supposed to earn it."
"Weak faith is the sin at the back of all our troubles; and the world's
pretty ripe for the avenging Hand so far as the faithful can see," she
answered.
"I don't believe that. Laws are made for the living, not the dead. We
labour too much under—not the avenging Hand, but the dead Hand.
Everything changes, including our standards of faith and duty. I heard a
chap say last week—a sober, decent man too—that life was quite difficult
enough without being handicapped by the Ten Commandments. Of course
he was joking, but you see the point."
Mrs. Huxam did not see the point. She retorted sternly and told Jacob
that he was little better than an atheist to question the enduring quality of
inspiration.
"It's all of a piece," she continued. "Man is losing sight of his Maker at
every turn in the road. We talk of Anti-Christ and don't see that Anti-Christ
is already among us, netting souls by the hundred thousand. The abiding
consciousness of the Divine Presence is lost—gone. This generation hardly
knows the meaning of the words. And what follows? The men and women
are false in wedlock, false in fatherhood and motherhood, false in business
and false in faith. There are new, sham gods being lifted up, and you—you,
my daughter's husband—are worshipping 'em with the rest. You pretend it
isn't so; but your words condemn you."
Jacob laughed, for he had thought long upon these things and slipped
farther from his old guides than Mrs. Huxam knew.
"'Consciousness of the Divine Presence' a guarantee for honesty in

business!" he answered. "Why, my dear woman, it isn't even a guarantee for
honesty in the pulpit! How many of the parsons are honest, or dare to say
what they know is the truth? And we laymen—look round. Take Ireland—
two camps of men fighting like devils, with 'consciousness of the Divine
Presence' the bedrock of all their quarrels. And our so-called Christian
Government—what would become of that, if, for one sitting of Parliament,
it put 'the Divine Presence' before practical politics and diplomacy? No, no;
'consciousness of the Divine Presence' don't make men honest, I assure you,
mother—not even such as say they believe in it."
She glared at him and turned very white.
"God help your wife and children then," she said. "If I had known you
hid such poison as this in you, I'd sooner have seen Margery in her coffin
than——"
Barlow Huxam came in and his wife left her sentence unfinished.
"We've all got a right to our opinions. Our conduct, not our words, will
judge us, mother."
"Another lie," she answered, and rose and left them.
Jacob expressed regrets and hoped that Barlow would make his peace.
"I let my tongue run," he confessed, "but I didn't mean to vex her."
Mr. Huxam, however, when he heard particulars, took rather a serious

view of the controversy.
"I'm sorry you touched religion," he declared, "because on that subject

Judy's—however, I'll explain you were not in earnest and are properly
contrite. But don't you put loose opinions into your children, because, if she
caught a doubtful word in their mouths, there'd be a flare-up and harm done
beyond mending."
"Their mother teaches them, not me. Auna's the only one who sets any
value on me," answered Jacob.
Mr. Huxam brought out the plans of the villa residence.
"I'm wishful for you to see the creation of the house," he said. "Young
Tremayne, of Exeter, drew it and I think well of it. I was hoping that you'd
persuade Judy about the bath-room; but your light's out with her to-night
I'm afraid. She says the Pulleyblanks, and the Twelve Apostles, and a lot
more celebrated people never had a bath-room, and therefore it's a vanity
and vexation. But I argue that such an invention stands well inside
Christianity, for there's no word against cleaning yourself in style and
comfort. The world won't stand still."
"That's what your wife is so angry about," answered Jacob. "She thinks
that if your faith is sound, you ought to stand still, no matter what cry goes
up to get a move on and take the iron hand of worn-out uses off the people.
We rot under festering laws that the Church won't lift, for faith, and the
State won't touch, for dirty policy. You stand out for your bath-room."
"It's part of every modern villa residence and must go in I reckon;

though whether I shall have the pluck to use it, time will show. Judy would
expect me to be struck dead by lightning—still the opportunity may come,
and the younger generation will prove there's no danger. That's one thing
education have done anyway—the people wash a lot more than in my
youth; but Judy always says it's too fatal easy to cleanse the outside of the
platter."
Bullstone praised the plans of the house and looked forward to visiting
the site at a later date.
"There'll be no building for a minute," he said, "for we're in for a real

pinch of winter. However, I'm never feared of February cold."
"The snow has begun," answered Barlow.
"Then I'll get home and not sup with you—for that reason and another. I
mustn't anger Mrs. Huxam any more to-day. Better you tell her I've gone
home, with my tail between my legs; but hope to make my peace next time
we meet."
"That's wisest," admitted his father-in-law. "I'll say. you're terrible chap
fallen and didn't mean a word of it—just some nonsense you heard in the
train—eh? All well at Red House?"
"All well, and my father's old friend at Totnes is fast going home—
didn't know me."
"All well with him then."
Jacob left the post-office without seeing his mother-in-law again. He did
not much regret hurting her, for he felt that her attitude to life was obsolete,
and he had no wish that his children should grow up self-righteous and
bigoted. He was in a good temper when he set out and saw flakes of snow
drift past the oil lamps that lit the township. They fell fitfully as yet, but
grew thicker as he climbed the hill and set his face northerly for home. He
was comfortable and warm, for he had drunk before leaving Brent. His old
teetotal habit had been of late years abandoned and he took spirits after his
day's work. The night was very dark and he felt glad to have escaped supper
at Brent. The Red House supper was taken about nine o'clock, and he would
now be home before that hour. At Shipley he turned into the farm gate,
where a powder of snow already whitened the earth. No light shone from
the ground floor of the farmhouse, but a dull red glow outlined one
bedroom window, while the others remained in darkness. The door was
closed, but knowing that Miss Winter still kept her room and slept much,
Jacob did not knock. Instead he lifted the latch quietly and entered the
kitchen, which opened down a passage-way behind the parlour. The place
was empty. A candle burned low on the table and beside it stood a jelly in a
pudding basin. A peat fire was sinking on the hearth. Bullstone set down his
oranges, and proceeded to leave as quietly as he had come. He was already
in the stone-paved passage at the foot of a little stair, when voices from
above arrested him. He heard his wife and Adam Winter. Each spoke once,
and in the silence he marked every syllable.
"Quick—quick—there's a dear," exclaimed the woman.
"Come, then—come," said the man.
Then he heard Margery laugh.
Within five seconds the thing had happened, and for another five he
stood without moving, without breathing. Then he turned to rush up the
stairs; but he did not. There was no need for that. In another five seconds he
had left the house, closing the door behind him. It was over—the long-
drawn agony had ended and he stood justified in all his woes. At last the
truth stared at him without one shadow to make doubtful its hideous face.
He leapt to accept it. An indefinite relief settled upon him as he went
panting home, for he could now make peace with his own soul. Already he
had planned the future. He was amazed to find how his mind worked. He
marshalled his thoughts coherently and vividly. He swept over many
subjects—the children, their future, the new order of events at Red House,
when his wife was gone and the place emptied of her for ever. Then only
would his own heart and conscience become pure again and the muddy
currents of life run clear. The dominant emotion at this moment was one of
thankfulness that he had been right, for the possibility that he could still be
wrong had ceased to exist and immeasurable relief attended its departure.
The children were surprised to see him and when he asked Auna for her
mother, the child said that she had gone to Shipley with something for Miss
Winter. He ascended to his room, to change his coat and looked at his
watch. It was nine o'clock, and at ten minutes past nine, Margery returned
with her shawl over her head.
She was flushed and panting.
"I've had such a run in the snow," he heard her say to Avis.
And the girl answered:
"Father's home."
She came to him then, at the table, sharpening the carving knife on the
steel before he cut a piece of cold pork.
"My, Jacob! Back to supper? Nothing's amiss? I've been to Shipley with
a bowl of nice stock for Miss Winter. She don't pick up. It's her age against
her."
He did not answer, and Margery took her place at the bottom of the
table. Her husband preserved silence, nor did he reply to Barton Gill, when
the old man spoke.
The children lowered their voices and looked sideways at him. Margery,
who had come straight home and not returned in to the Shipley house-place,
was ignorant that he had been there and left the oranges upon the table. She,
too, fell very quiet and knew that she had gravely angered him by going to
the Winters. She doubted not that he had set another trap for her; and this
time he would think that he had caught her. She was not frightened but
sorry. She had her emotion, however, ignored Jacob and talked to the
others. Then, the meal ended, Bullstone left the kitchen and ascended to the
little room in the upper floor, where he kept his papers and books. He did
not reappear until Avis, Auna and Peter had gone to bed. Gill, who slept
over the kennels, had already retired. Then he came back into the kitchen to
get a day book.
"Wait, wait, Jacob," begged Margery. "Do, my dear man, keep your
anger for me and not frighten the children with it. Auna's gone crying to bed
and the others are cowed and full of fear. It's too bad. What have I done,
after all? Visited a sick old woman with a basin of jelly. Is that enough to
——?"
"No more," he said slowly. "I know what you've done—what you've
done often enough before. It's ended now. All's over between us and I'm not
going to talk; I'm going to act. And may the Almighty in Heaven strike me
dumb where I stand, if you shall ever hear my voice again after this hour. I
could kill you and I could kill him—I could have killed you together just
now. But there's others to think about. My children are mine, so I believe."
"What are you saying?" she cried.
"You've heard my voice for the last time," he answered and left her.
He locked the front door; then he went up to his workroom and the
place was silent. Only the house crickets chirruped and the fire rustled.
Margery sat for an hour looking straight before her. What did he suppose
had happened? What was he going to do? What could he do? Something
awful had overtaken him; some evil things had come to his ears. It was
impossible that her trivial act behind his back could have awakened passion
so deep as this. She had not hidden the visit to Shipley. The children knew
where she had gone and might have told him if she had not. His awful
threats terrified her. He had said all was over between them and that she
should never hear his voice again. He had accused her of adultery and
declared that he might have killed her. She was very frightened now and
feared for his reason. She blamed herself bitterly for going to Shipley and
vowed never to err again. In this mood she persisted for some time, then it
passed and she banished the fear that he was mad and grew angry at his
insufferable insults. She pictured life without him, and without the eternal
threat that sulked in his eyes. Then she considered her children and his. She
flamed with fierce indignation at his allusion to them. 'My children are
mine, so I believe.' And he had sworn before God that these should be the
last words he would ever speak to her. But from anger she quickly returned
to terror. He must be mad thus to attack her, and she, no doubt, had
innocently helped to drive him mad. Her soul sickened at the thought of the
long hours yet to pass before the morning. She fell into tears and abandoned
herself to a frenzy of weeping.
He made no sign and presently she dried her face and determined to
approach him. If he was mad, then it became her to treat him as a sick man,
forget her own suffering and do all in her power to soothe his temper. It was
past twelve o 'clock when she went upstairs and saw a light under the door
of his little room. She nerved herself to enter and turned the handle of the
door; but it was locked.
She spoke low—not to wake the children who slept close at hand:
"Jacob—forgive me. I'm cruel sorry. Hear me—only hear me—there's a

dear."
And he, sitting writing within, listened to the last three coaxing words
as though they had been red-hot stabs through his head. For they were an
echo.
He did not reply, and a hideous fear touched Margery that he might have
destroyed himself—that that was his meaning, when he said she should
never hear his voice again.
"For Christ's sake, Jacob——"

But there came no response and she went down again to the kitchen.
The iron of the stove was giving fitful sounds that told of cooling; the fire
had sunk. She looked out, to see that the snow had ceased to fall and stars
shone through thin clouds. The crickets had left off chirruping and night
hung dead and heavy. She huddled up in front of the fire and her terror
increased. Then that happened to lessen it. She heard her husband push
back his chair and move.
Once more, an hour later, she ascended, knocked at his door and spoke
to him; but he did not reply.
"May I be judged by my fellow-creatures and condemned if I have ever

done you wrong in word or thought or deed, Jacob," she said at last. Still he
made no answer and she went downstairs again. He had heard and reflected
how soon that would happen she professed to desire. Her fellow-creatures
should judge between them quickly enough.
At two o'clock she put out the lamp, lighted a candle and went to her
bedroom. She crept up very quietly, so that he should not hear her; but
listened again at his door. He was breathing heavily and muttering in his
dreams. She had heard his voice again; but it sounded strange and far off,
touched to an unfamiliar tone, as sleeping voices are.
She put out her candle and looked in upon her children. Avis and Auna
were both in deep slumber. They had pulled up their blind, as they were
wont to do and put out a saucer of milk and jam, to freeze and make a
dainty for the morning. Peter's room was on the other side of the passage.
He, too, slept soundly with a book beside him. She entered her own room
shivering with the cold and feeling physically hungry. But she did not
descend again. She went to bed and shivered still, missing the great,
sanguine body that was wont to keep her slight figure warm.
Again she cried till her pillow was wet and cold, and she longed that
when she slept she might never wake again.
Dawn was grey and the hour for rising had come before she grew
unconscious.
CHAPTER XIV
END OF A HOME
That night, while Margery had sat below and from time to time strove to
reach him, Jacob Bullstone occupied many hours with writing. He had set
down the web of testimony woven over many years—the long horror of
suspicion, now culminated in proof irrefragable. Scene by scene, incident
by incident, his remorseless memory gathered every thread of the pitiful
fabric. It seemed that a stage was lighted within his brain, whereon act
succeeded after act of his married life. It did not surprise him that the
narrative presented itself in such orderly sequence, for all had long been
printed upon the pages of his mind, and, looking back, one fact alone
astonished him: that he should have patiently endured his dishonour until
the final climax. From his own standpoint, the account, as he set it down,
appeared lucid and trustworthy. A stranger, reading it without bias or other
knowledge, had been convinced of its reality. By a thousand touches truth
seemed to stand confessed. That another story as good, in contravention of
Bullstone's statement, could be created out of the same material he did not
imagine. Jacob wrote quite calmly, only holding his pen when his wife
came, to break the silence with entreaty. Then after she had gone he
proceeded, and not until the work was done did nature demand rest. He fell
asleep, indeed, a few moments after he had ceased to write. The
compilation acted like an anodyne; the mechanical work of setting all down
calmed him; and at the finish he lay back in his chair and slumbered
heavily.
At dawn he awoke, and about the hour when Margery began to sleep, he
rose, made a packet of his papers, put on his coat and boots and went
downstairs. It was too early to pursue his purpose, but he would not loiter
and, as the maid appeared to open the house and light the fire, Jacob set out
for Brent, leaving no message behind him. Not much snow had fallen and
the sky was white and clear.
He began to collect his thoughts and found that they persistently ran on
into the future, after what he now planned to do should be done. He was
busy thus when an incident brought him back to the present and loosened
passion.
Adam Winter was astir, sweeping the snow away from his outer gate.
He saw Bullstone, flung down his broom and came out to intercept him.
His smiling face sent the blood through the other's head and Jacob
trembled with rage as the smaller man came to him.
"Got to thank you for thicky, brave fruit last night I expect. Like you to
leave it and——"
The other roared:
"It's over—it's done, you God damned scoundrel—all's done—all's

known!"
Adam stared, and then a heavy fist smashed into his face and Jacob's
other hand was swung to the side of his head.
He reeled; his hat flew off; half blind and groping, with his arms thrust
before him, he fell. He lifted himself to his knees, but dropped again, giddy
and scarcely conscious. He supposed that he confronted a madman, for
there existed no shadow of meaning to him in this assault. He had once or
twice seen his brother suffer from like paroxysms.
"Man, man, that's bad," he said gently, with one hand to his head, the
other supporting him. "That's a wicked thing to do, master, and you'll be
sorry for it."
Bullstone was gone. His fury sped him on his way, and not until he had
breasted a hill did he slow down and his mind grow calmer. For some time
he rejoiced at what he had done; then he began to be sorry for it. Often
enough he had been tempted to physical violence against Winter; once or
twice he had felt a gathering lust to do violence to Margery; but he had
escaped the peril until this moment. Now ill chance had thrust his enemy
upon him at an hour when self-control was impossible. As the sun rose he
mourned his act, not for itself, but because it was a mean thing to smite a
man just recovered from sickness—a blot on the large, inexorable plan now
waiting accomplishment. He had succumbed to Nature, after successfully
fighting her for so long. That any fellow-creature would blame him—that
any husband would have thought the worse of him for killing Winter with
his hands—he did not for a moment imagine; but his act stood out of
harmony with the long story of his patience and restraint. It was beneath his
character and reputation. He remembered an ancestor who had taken the
law into his own hands and destroyed both the man and wife who
dishonoured him. That was a deed orbicular, complete and tremendous; but
he dreamed of no such course. He had sunk from his own high standards
and regretted it.
Then he dismissed Winter and returned again to all that was going to
happen when the Law had freed him. He meant to divorce his wife and
begin a new existence; but he did not mean that the end of his days should
be ruined and his destiny changed by tribulation forced upon him from
without. He held himself guiltless and stainless. He was only one of many
honest men who had been called to endure like indignity and disaster; but
the sympathy of mankind would lie with him; and his own steadfast nature
and large patience might be counted to gather up the ravelled texture of his
life and carry on the old design in a manner worthy of him and his family.
So he argued and, keeping those who had wronged him out of his
thoughts, reflected upon his children. They must not suffer for the loss of a
wicked mother. Nor did he fear it. They were old enough to understand and
would appreciate the situation. John Henry was already established on land
presently to be his own. Peter would stay at Red House and gradually
assume command; for Red House and the business some day must fall to
his portion. Avis would marry in a year or two and go to Owley Farm.
There remained Auna, and for Auna he felt no fear. She was his own, his
nearest and dearest—all that he would soon have left. She would never
leave him until the breath was out of his body. The future stretched stark
and clean. He must suffer, and he began to realise how deeply; but the
intermittent pangs of the future would not corrode and sear as the torment
of the past. He knew that he might struggle back to peace, given the time to
do it, for with self-respect all things are possible, and he felt that he had
already regained that.
He dwelt on details. When she was free of him, the other man would
doubtless take her. Whither would he take her? They could not live at
Shipley in sound of his voice. The excuses to stop at Shipley would not
hold now. The woman would see to that and remove herself beyond reach,
both of him and her own outraged family. He thought of Judith and Barlow
Huxam and imagined their dismay.
And meantime, with the snow-blink on one side of their faces and the
firelight on the other, Margery and her children sat at breakfast. She had
heard from Barton Gill that Jacob was not in the kennels, and after putting
off the questions of Avis and Peter for a time, something seemed to break in
her heart. A sense of destruction mastered her and she began to cry. Her
reserve and the caution, practised a thousand times to disarm the children's
questions when Jacob would not speak, deserted her. She was indifferent
and could no longer pretend anything after the events of the previous night.
She was also physically exhausted and had no wits longer to parry the
youthful attack. She told them that their father was very angry with her and
had said that he never meant to speak to her again. And then she succumbed
and wept helplessly before them.
Avis was awed and Peter angry.
"I hate father—I hate him!" he cried. "He's a bad man, and this isn't the
first time he's made you miserable."
"John Henry will protect you, mother," said Avis. "And I'll hate father
too, if he's cruel to you. And so will grandmother Huxam."
Auna put her arms round her mother's neck.

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Japan Decides 2021: The Japanese

General Election Robert J. Pekkanen

The British General Election of 2019 Robert Ford

The British General Election of 2017 1st ed. Edition

Devouring Japan: Global Perspectives on Japanese

Political Communication in Britain: Campaigning, Media

The Golden Couple Greer Hendricks & Sarah Pekkanen

Intermediate Macroeconomics Robert J Barro

Overcoming Secondary Stress in Medical and Nursing

General, Organic, and Biochemistry 11th Edition

Japan Decides 2021

ISBN 978-3-031-11323-9 ISBN 978-3-031-11324-6 (eBook)

Cover image: © REUTERS/Alamy Stock Photo

Steve Reed thanks his coeditors, past and present.

To everyone who has lost a friend or loved one in the pandemic.

We are thrilled to produce the fourth in our series of high-quality anal-

1 Introduction: Japan’s Coronavirus Election 1

Part I Party Politics

8 Candidate Selection for the 2021 General Election 103

Part II The Campaign

Part III The Issues: Domestic and International

19 Women’s Representation and the Gendered Impact

Amano Kenya is a Ph.D. student in the Department of Political Science

Katada Saori N. is a Professor of International Relations and the director

author of Renegotiating the World Order: Institutional Change in Inter-

is a board member of the UTokyo Center for Contemporary Japanese

Migration: The Netherlands and Japan in the Age of Globalization, was

Fig. 3.1 Vote share of Ishin SMD candidates 28

Fig. 12.2 Primary reason for cabinet approval, November

Fig. 17.1 Party positions in the trilemma: supply-side growth,

Table 2.1 Seats in HC 2019 election by party 15

Table 13.1 Top ten candidates by Twitter followers 186

Introduction: Japan’s Coronavirus Election

Robert J. Pekkanen , Steven R. Reed, and Daniel M. Smith

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature 1

as the LDP approached another leadership election in 2021––and as the

Summer Olympics. When Kishida succeeded Suga, COVID-19 cases were

autumn 2020 election seemed likely, to slipstream in the wake of the

The chapter examines both supply-side and demand-side factors in order

skepticism giving way to more widespread enthusiasm, though dotted

Japanese Politics Between 2017 and 2021

Robert J. Pekkanen and Steven R. Reed

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature 13

explicitly party politics aspects of these developments. We discuss the

2019 House of Councillors Results

Table 2.1 Seats in HC 2019 election by party

LDP CDP Komeito DPP Ishin JCP Hope Other Total

Pre-election 123 24 25 23 13 14 1 15 245

Source Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan

LDP CDP Komeito DPP Ishin JCP

Source Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan

Source Authors’ analysis

Hope and After: The Opposition

Party of Hope, led by insurgent Tokyo Governor Koike Yuriko. On the

Abe and After: 2020 Resignation and Replacements

elections and successfully enacted bold policy initiatives, some of which

In April 2021, Suga ordered the dumping of diluted but contam-

Maeda, Yukio. 2022. “Public Opinion and COVID-19.” In Robert J. Pekkanen,

The 2021 Election Results: Continuity