STATE OF

ASEAN SOLAR
MARKETS
WHITE PAPER
2022
TABLE
OF CONTENTS

01 02
Overviews 03 Country profiles 06
2.1 Singapore
2.2 Indonesia
2.3 Vietnam
2.4 The Philippines
2.5 Malaysia
2.6 Thailand

03 04
Summary 21 References 22

STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 01
OVERVIEWS
The year 2022 marks a crucial turning point for Southeast Asia’s combat against climate
change. Following the commitment made in COP26, ASEAN's growing economies is
preparing for an accelerated shift from their current carbon-intensive pathways to
renewable energy.

As of the end of 2021, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has a cumulative
installed solar PV capacity of 24.05GW, of which the newly installed photovoltaic capacity
in 2021 was 913MW, a significant decrease compared with the newly installed capacity of
12.61GW in 2020 [1], partly due to the Vietnam market stagger in the past year. Heading
2022, although not all the government have set a clear time point toward carbon neutrality,
more or less they follow the concept of reducing coal and replacing it with greener sources
of energy like solar and wind. According to the forecast of energy consultancy firm IHS Markit,
Southeast Asia is expected to add 27GW of solar power capacity during 2021 to 2025 [2].
Among the ten ASEAN countries, six of them showcase the highest potential of growth in
solar, namely Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, The Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Figure 1: Annual installed solar PV capacity in selected Southeast Asian countries

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Singapore Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Thailand

Source: IRENA [1]

03 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 Tthis article analyzes the photovoltaic markets of these six countries in turn, including
the geography trends, government policies and regulations, recent project
developments, and future outlooks.

Among Key Findings:

Singapore :
Mainly rely on imported green electricity to achieve carbon neutrality. Due to land
constraints, only rooftop solar and floating PV canbe developed.

Indonesia :
As a major country exporting green power to Singapore, utility-scale solar is the key
development direction. The government has set a target of 271GW of installed renewable
energy capacity by 2050, with solar PV capacity reaching 113GW, accounting for 41.7%.

Vietnam :
The installed solar PV capacity is close to the target of 2025, and the government will then
focus on wind power. However, from a long-term perspective (By 2045, the cumulative
installed capacity of solar PV is targeted at 58GW, and there is still room for growth of
42GW.), Vietnam's solar market still has great potential for development.

Philippines :
The booming photovoltaic market has benefited from the auction system introduced by
the government. According to the latest Solar Rooftop Adoption Act, the country's rooftop
solar market may usher in a rapid wave of growth.

Malaysia :
Like the Philippines, Malaysia's solar PV market is booming because the government
introduced an auction system. The country's solar power resources are much higher
than other renewable energy sources, so the government regards photovoltaics as one
of the most important renewable energy sources (Solar energy meets 30% of peak
demand by 2035).

Thailand :
Solar PV development in the country has been stagnant for three years due to policy
reasons. However, the government will revise the Power Development Plan (PDP) this
year, and the Prime Minister has also announced that it will achieve carbon neutrality
by 2050, so the solar market in Thailand is expected to regain its vitality

04 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 Among Key Findings:

Solar PV activity in Southeast Asia is mostly dominated by Asian developers, in most

cases local companies that are active in a specific market. In the Philippines, Solar
Philippines is one of the developers with the highest number of project pipelines across
Southeast Asia. For the Vietnam market, Xuan Thien Group holds the second position
with 1.14 GW of completed projects and another 597 MW of planned projects. Trungnam
Group is competing with Xuan Thien Group by completing 1.06 GW of projects as of 2020.
In Thailand, Superblock is leading, followed by Energy Absolute and SPCG, in terms of
completed projects. Unlike other Southeast Asian countries, Malaysia has a mix of
international and national developers. During the LSS3 PV tender, Malaysia awarded
most of the projects to international developers, which opened the market for
largescale PV development in the country

Figure 2: Top PV developers pipeline by country and status

Solarpack Asia
Malaysia

Hanwha Group
TTL Energy
ib vogt
Cypark
Enfintiy
Philippines

G.A Philkor Multi Energy

Philippine Integrated Co.
SOCOTECO
Solar Philippines
B.Grimm
Thailand

SPCG
Energy Absolute *Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
EGAT*
Superblock
Scatec Solar
Super Energy
Vietnam

Trungnam Group
EVN
Xuan Thien Group

MWdc 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500

Source: IHS Markit [2] Completed Under construction Plammed

05 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 02
COUNTRY PROFILES
2.1 SINGAPORE

By the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of solar power in Singapore was
433MW. In the past ten years, although the annual installed capacity has dropped
suddenly in some years, it has maintained an overall upward trend. In 2021, Singapore's
yearly installed solar PV capacity was 97MW, basically returning to 85% of the level before
the Covid-19.

Figure 3: Cumulative and annual installed solar PV capacity in Singapore (Unit: MW)

500 140

450
120
400

350 100

300
80
250
60
200

150 40
100
20
50

0 0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: IRENA [1] Annual ( Right ) Cumulative ( Left )

On 10 February 2021, the Singaporean government released the Singapore Green Plan 2030
which sets targets for sustainability in Singapore by 2030. The plan mentions a five-fold
increase in solar deployment in Singapore to 2GW by 2030, which would meet 3% of total
electricity demand and generate enough electricity to power more than 350,000
households annually [3]. In addition, by 2025, the total installed capacity of photovoltaics
will reach 1.5GW, meeting 2% of the total electricity demand 2025. The current total installed
solar capacity is less than 500MW, which means that in the next three years, Singapore will
have 1GW of photovoltaics installed, and the target for the next five years is only 500MW.
Undoubtedly, due to the limitation of land resources, most of these solar power projects are
rooftop solar systems and floating solar PV

06 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 By the way, the green energy of the plan only mentions solar energy, which means that by
2030, the proportion of renewable energy generation in Singapore is only 3%. However, by 2030,
Singapore is the only Southeast Asian country that does not rely on international capital
support and has reduced CO2 emissions (about 3%) compared to 2018. Of course, this has a
lot to do with Singapore's power generation structure. By the end of 2020, 95% of Singapore's
electricity comes from natural gas, while photovoltaic power generation only accounts for
1.16% [4]. Generally speaking, a natural gas power plant needs to emit 443g of carbon dioxide to
produce one kilowatt-hour of electricity, while a coal-fired power plant needs to emit at least
960g of carbon dioxide. In other words, Singapore's unique power generation structure makes
it easier to achieve carbon reduction than other Southeast Asian countries that rely on coal for
power generation.

Figure 4: Percentage change in absolute annual emission by 2030 (from 2018, %)

Percentage change in absolute annual emissions by 2030 ( from 2018, % )

Myanmay 85 158
Vietnam 99 62
Malaysia 84
Brunei 39
Cambodia 31
Indonesia -1 19
China 17
Thailand -3 3
Singapore -3
Laos -11 8
Philippines -62 50
USA -32
EU -32

Conditional Unconditional

Conditional: Conditional targets dependent on sufficient international support.

Unconditional: Unconditional reduction not dependent on external support.
Source: Bain & Company [5]

With natural constraints putting a cap on renewable energy generation capacity in the country,
a key part of Singapore’s transformation lies in the development of the ASEAN Power Grid (APG).
The region has seen several bilateral cross-border interconnection projects backed by long-term
powerpurchase agreements. For example, in November 2020, four countries launched multilateral
cross-border electricity trade of up to 100 MW of electricity under the Laos-Thailand-Malaysia
Singapore Power Integration Project (LTMS PIP) [6]. While the total amount of electricity traded is
small, it is an important first step

07 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 Then in 2021, Singapore pledged to import up to 4GW of low-carbon electricity by 2035, which
would translate to 35% of its total supply. In January 2022, Masdar announced that would explore
the development of 1.2GW of solar and potential storage projects in Indonesia for export to
Singapore [7]. In the same year in April, Singapore’s homegrown electricity retailer Union Power
has been appointed as a distribution partner for a proposed US$5 billion project promoted by
Anantara Energy Holdings to generate renewable energy in Indonesia and export 4 TWh ( Total
PV installed capacity is 3.5 GW) annually back to the city-state [8]. It is not difficult to see that to
achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, Singapore has adopted a large amount of imported green
electricity to reduce its dependence on natural gas power generation.

Of course, part of the funding for importing green electricity comes from the government's
carbon tax. Singapore's carbon tax is S$5/tCO2e for the period 2019-2023, rising all the way up to
$50-80/tCO2e in 2030. The government does not expect to derive additional revenue from the
carbon tax increase in this decade. Therefore, the revenue will be used to support
decarbonization efforts and the transition to a green economy, and cushion the impact on
businesses and households [9].

08 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 2.2 INDONESIA
By the end of 2021, total installed solar PV capacity in Indonesia was only 211MW. In the past
decade, the annual installed capacity has basically been below 30MW. In 2021, the yearly
installed capacity of solar power was 26MW, a slight decrease compared with 2020. At
present, coal is the main source of electricity generation in Indonesia, accounting for 62.8%
in 2020, followed by natural gas accounting for 17.6%. Additionally, renewable energy power
generation, including hydropower, accounted for 17%, of which solar power generation
accounted for as small as negligible.

Figure 5: Cumulative and annual installed solar PV capacity in Indonesia (Unit: MW)

90
100
250

80
200
60
37
150 30 26 40

12 9 10 20
100 4

50
-20

-33
0 -40

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: IRENA [1] Annual ( Right ) Cumulative ( Left )

In July 2021, the Indonesian government released the Long Term Strategy for Low Carbon and
Climate Resilience 2050 (LTS-LCCR 2050), which aims to contribute to achieving global
decarbonisation goals [10]. Specifically, the LTS-LCCR 2050 offers the power industry a
decarbonisation solution that relies heavily on the implementation of carbon capture, utilization
and storage (CCUS) rather than phasing out coal entirely. The strategy proposes to equip 76%
of coal-fired power generation capacity with CCUS by 2050 to reduce emissions, suggesting
that coal will continue to play an important role in the power sector.

09 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 At the same time, the strategic plan is that by 2050, the proportion of renewable energy power
generation will reach 43%, coal power generation will drop to 38%, and natural gas power
generation will also drop to 10%. Among them, the installed capacity of renewable energy will
reach 271GW by 2050, while solar PV will account for the highest proportion of 41.7%, which is
113GW. Separately, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) said in May 2021
that the country would not approve new coal-fired power plants after 2025, and would
gradually retire existing coal-fired power plants early [11].

Although the deployment of solar power in Indonesia has not been satisfactory in the past, the
Ministry of Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation of Indonesia has called last year for 2,379
MW of solar generation capacity to be added in 2022, as part of 6,713 MW of new projects by 2025,
and 14,867 MW by 2030. [12]. The 145MW floating PV project on the Cirata Reservoir in West Java,
Indonesia is currently under construction and is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter
of this year [13]. In addition, at the Duriangkang Reservoir in Indonesia, the world's largest floating
photovoltaic power station will start construction this year and is expected to be completed in
2024. The power station has an installed capacity of 2.2GW and costs about US$2 billion [14].

In addition, several projects export solar power from Indonesia to Singapore at the early planning
stage. These projects involve more than 11.7GW of photovoltaic installed capacity, and 3.5GW of
Anantara's project is expected to be completed by 2032. Moreover, Sunseap signed MoU to
develop 7GW solar systems in Indonesia in October last year, and part of the power of the project
will be exported to Singapore [15]. It is not difficult to see that after a long period of silence,
Indonesia's solar market will develop rapidly in the next few decades, and the direction of solar
power development will be floating photovoltaics and utility-scale solar.

10 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 2.3 VIETNAM
By the end of 2021, Vietnam's cumulative installed PV capacity was 16.66GW, which is
undoubtedly the brightest star in Southeast Asia. However, with the completion of the rush
installation in 2020, there will be no new photovoltaic installations in Vietnam in 2021. About
76% of solar power comes from rooftops, and the remaining 24% are ground-based PVs.
Generous FITs, together with income and land-lease payment exemptions, have been key
aspects of the policy framework that has spurred Vietnam’s solar PV boom.

Figure 6: Cumulative and annual installed solar PV capacity in Vietnam (Unit: MW)

14000
18000 11667

16000 12000

14000
10000
12000
8000
10000

8000 4888 6000

6000
4000
4000
2000
2000
97
0 0 0 0 0 3 0
0 0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: IRENA [1] Annual ( Right ) Cumulative ( Left )

According to EVN’s annual report, as of the end of 2020, Vietnam’s solar power generation
accounted for 24.03%, an increase of 15% compared to 2019. The proportion of coal power
generation decreased from 35.83% in 2019 to 31.10% in 2020. The installed capacity of coal-fired
power generation has increased by 1.81GW. Nevertheless, according to the latest draft of the
National Power Development Plan for the 2021-2030 period (PDP8), Vietnam plans to no longer
build new coal-fired power plants, and to control the share of coal-fired power generation to 9.6%
by 2045 [16]. However, coal-fired power plants currently under construction will not opt for outright
scrap, with a total of 6.84 GW of coal-fired power plants under construction in Vietnam
as of January 2022.

11 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 Figure 7: Power Generation Structure in Vietnam

Coal fired Wind Coal fired Wind

35.83% 0.67% 31.10% 0.75%

Solar Solar
8.47% 12.80%

Rooftop solar Rooftop solar

Hydropower
36.81%
2019 0.58% Hydropower
29.98%
2020 11.23%

Biomass
Biomass
0.53%
0.53%

Imported Gas fired+ oil fired Imported Gas fired+ oil fired
1.04% 16.07% 0.83% 12.78%

Source: EVN [17]

As the latest draft of PDP8 will be submitted to the Prime Minister for approval in May this year, full
details are not yet known. According to the last draft (October 2021 updates), solar power
generation capacity will reach 17.24-18.54GW by 2025, and this figure will increase slightly to
18.64-22.04GW by 2030 [18]. However, at the end of 2020, Vietnam already had 16.66GW of solar
energy in operation, which means that if the photovoltaic target is not raised in the latest draft in
May, the solar PV market in Vietnam will be sluggish in the next eight years. Despite this, Vietnam
still has a photovoltaic installed capacity gap of up to 5.5GW by 2030.

On the contrary, Vietnam will focus on wind power. By the end of 2021, the cumulative installed
capacity of wind power in Vietnam was 4.12GW, an increase of 3.6GW compared to 2020. And by
2025, the government has set a wind power target of 11.32-11.82GW, and this number will be further
increased to 13.82-15.82GW by 2030. According to Letter No. 4219/EVN-TTD of July 22, 2021, 144 wind
projects have signed PPAs of approximately 8,145 MW.

12 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 Table 1: The target of installed capacity by fuel types (October 2021 updates to Draft PDP8)

2025 2030 2045

Solar PV 17.24-18.54GW(16.79%-17.61%) 18.64-22.04GW(14.3%-15.32%) 51.54-63.64GW(19.3%-19.67%)

Wind Power 11.32-11.82GW(11%-11.22%) 13.82-15.82GW(9%-9.6%) 48.11-68.72GW(18.63%-20.84%)

Hydropower 25.32-25.39GW(24%-24.73%) 26.68-27.90GW(19.39%-20.47%) 29.08-30.08GW(12.58%-13.62%)

Coal-fired power 29.43GW(27.96%-28.67%) 40.65GW(28.3%-31.2%) 50.07GW(15.4%-19.4%)

Gas-to-power (13.54%-13.89%) 27.47-32.07GW(21.1%-22.3%) 61.90-88.70GW(23.64%-26.93%)

Source: Baker Mckenzie [18]

According to the latest draft, as the proportion of coal power generation will drop significantly in
2045, the Vietnamese government has raised the wind and solar power generation target in
2045, from the original plan of 40% to the latest 50.7%. This means that the installed capacity of
solar energy and wind power in 2045 will increase by about 27GW based on the original target.
Generally speaking, in recent years, the attractiveness of Vietnam's solar market is not as good as
that of the wind power market. But in the long run, Vietnam's PV market is still worth looking forward
to.

13 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 2.4 THE PHILIPPINES
By the end of 2021, the cumulative installed PV capacity in the Philippines was 1.37GW. Nearly half
of these installations were added in 2016. The Philippines added 312MW of new PV capacity in
2021, a three-fold increase from 2020. It can be said that the photovoltaic market in the
Philippines has been in a slow-growth trend since 2018, and the Covid-19 has not stopped this
trend. It is mainly due to the introduction of the renewable energy auction system by the
Philippine government in February 2020. Investors are interested in the auction as the Philippines
has the third-highest electricity price in Asia, after Singapore and Japan.

Figure 8: Cumulative and annual installed solar PV capacity in Philippines (Unit: MW)

700
1600
611
1400 600

1200 500

1000
400
312
800
300
600
200
400 145
124
200 75 100
65
1 25 9
0 0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: IRENA [1] Annual ( Right ) Cumulative ( Left )

As of 2019, the sources of electricity generation in the Philippines mainly depended on coal and
natural gas, which accounted for 54.6% and 21.1% of total electricity generation, respectively. At that
time, wind power and photovoltaic power generation accounted for 1.2% and 1.0% respectively. If
including hydropower, its renewable energy power generation accounted for 20.8%. According to
the National Renewable Energy Program (NREP), the Philippine government set a target capacity
of 15304MW of renewable energy and 35% of all new generation capacity developed up to 2030.
According to projections by Bain Company, by 2030, renewables are projected to be a $30 billion
market, with over 35% for solar power [19].

14 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 Although there is currently no target for the Philippines to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas
emissions. But last September, EDC, along with partners in the Net Zero Coalition, launched a
campaign for the Philippines to achieve net-zero carbon emissions from the country's
businesses. Once the Philippines proposes a net-zero carbon plan, the corresponding
roadmap and the supporting framework for renewable energy development will be improved,
and even green financing and other support will be available [20].

In February 2022, the Philippine Department of Energy launched another auction to allocate 2
GW of renewable energy capacity, including 1,260 MW of PV, 380 MW of wind, 230 MW of
biomass, and 130 megawatts of hydroelectric capacity. As for PV projects, Luzon should allocate
around 900 MW, while Visayas and Mindanao are expected to receive 260 and 100 MW,
respectively [21]. In addition, the government has stipulated that the ceiling price of
photovoltaics is set at PHP3.628 (0.069 USD)/kWh, which is the lowest of all renewable energy
ceiling prices.

The theoretical potential for rooftop solar in the Philippines is huge – more than 40 GW for
residential, commercial, industrial, and public utilities in the Philippines. However, the current
installed capacity of rooftop photovoltaics in the Philippines is only 100MW. Although it is expected
to triple to 300MW by 2025, it still seems uninteresting. This is largely due to the Philippines'
adoption of net metering for solar rooftop electricity, which means consumers generating up to
100 kilowatts can sell excess electricity back to the grid [22].

However, under the recently proposed Solar Rooftop Adoption Act, the removal of the 100kW net
metering cap would incentivize large and small commercial and industrial players to adopt
rooftop systems. Also, top-down demand should be driven by government buildings, increasing
the use of solar roofs in state and local government buildings. With the passage of the bill, solar
systems could provide at least 5% of the electricity needs of all government agencies, with an
expected increase every five years

15 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 2.5 MALAYSIA
By the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics in Malaysia was 1.79GW.
Since 2017, annual installed PV capacity in Malaysia has grown steadily every year. This is mainly
because Malaysia has been conducting PV tenders every year since 2016. Moreover, the project
size cap has been raised to 100 MW as of 2021. However, in 2021, its installed photovoltaic capacity
will only increase by 304MW, which is half of the 589MW in 2020. That is because the LSS3 project
was originally scheduled to go live in 2021, but due to COVID-19, the schedule is now set for late
2022 and early 2023 [2]

Figure 9: Cumulative and annual installed solar PV capacity in Malaysia (Unit: MW)

700
2000

1800 589 600

1600
500
1400

1200 400
349
1000 304
300
800

600 200
151
400 107 61
66 78 100
200 50

0 0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: IRENA [1] Annual ( Right ) Cumulative ( Left )

As of the end of 2019, Malaysia's power generation sources mainly depended on fossil energy, of
which coal power generation accounted for 45.9% and natural gas power generation accounted
for 37.1%. The proportion of renewable energy without hydropower is only 1.3% (hydropower is 16.5%).
it can be said that the country's renewable energy market is still in its infancy.

16 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 In June 2021, Malaysia's energy and natural resources minister presented Malaysia's energy transition
plan to 2040 at the ASEAN Energy Ministers' Meeting. Malaysia is targeting higher RE growth and the
Malaysia Renewable Energy Roadmap (MyRER) expects the share of renewables to increase to 31%
or 12.9 GW by 2025 and 40% or 18.0 GW by 2035 GW. This figure is much higher than the previous
target set in 2019 for the share of renewable energy to reach 20% by 2025. The government also
stated that Malaysia will not build new coal-fired power plants. Malaysia currently has 13GW of
coal-fired power generation, and about 7GW of power purchase agreements are due to expire in
2033 when these coal-fired power plants will be retired early before the end of their technical life
[23]. These gaps will undoubtedly be filled by natural gas and renewable energy plants. The new
capacity requirement is projected to increase post-2030 to 9,924MW with an additional 500MW of
Battery Energy Storage systems (BESS) for the 2031-2039 period [24].

Figure 10: Summary of RE resource potential in Malaysia

Source: SEDA [25]

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 Table 2: RE Capacity Mix to achieve the target in 2025 and 2035 (Unit: MW)

2025 ( 31% ) 2035 ( 40% )

Large Hydro 5862 8062

Small Hydro 1153 1219

Solar 4706(24% of paak demand) 7280 ( 30% of peal demand )

Biomass 862 998

Biogas 333 406

Source: SEDA [25]

In order to achieve the goal of photovoltaics in the future, mainly rely on two existing programmes
(i.e. NEM and LSS auctions), of course, will not rule out the introduction of new business models, such
as corporate PPAs, distributed generations, etc. Large-scale solar auction (LSS) has contributed to
the booming photovoltaic market in Malaysia over the past few years. Four auctions have been
successfully held so far:

LSS 1
was held in 2016 for 371 MW with the lowest bid submitted at MYR 0.39 / kWh69;

LSS 2
was held in 2017 for 526 MW with the lowest bid submitted at MYR 0.34 / kWh, a 13% reduction from
LSS 1;

LSS 3
was held in 2019 for 490.88 MW with the lowest bid submitted at MYR 0.17 / kWh, a 50% reduction
from LSS 270;

LSS 4
was held in 2020 for about 1,000MW with the lowest bid at MYR 0.1399 / kWh, an 18% reduction from
LSS 3.

The fifth round of tenders will be held this year, and the exact capacity is not yet known.

There is no doubt that Net Energy Metering (NEM) has provided great help to the development of
photovoltaics in Malaysia. Malaysia introduced the NEM scheme in November 2016, with a 500 MW
quota. As of now, the scheme has entered its third stage, and by the end of 2023, the NEM3.0
scheme will allocate 500 MW of rooftop PV capacity. As with the NEM 2.0 plan, 500MW of rooftop
PV is allocated during 2019-2020 [26]. Generally, the Malaysian photovoltaic market is worth looking
forward to, especially utility-scale solar and rooftop photovoltaics.

18 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 2.6 THAILAND
By the end of 2021, Thailand's cumulative installed solar PV capacity is 3.04GW. This ranks second in
Southeast Asia, but since 2019, Thailand's PV installations have stagnated, with no new installations
in 2020 and only 61MW in 2021. By the end of 2020, Thailand's power generation mainly relies on fossil
fuels, of which natural gas accounts for 64.7% of the total power generation, followed by coal-fired
power generation accounting for 19.3%. However, the highest proportion of renewable energy
generation in Thailand is biofuels, accounting for 9%, while solar and wind power are in the initial
stage of development, accounting for 2.6% and 1.7% respectively.

Figure 11: Cumulative and annual installed solar PV capacity in Thailand (Unit: MW)

1026 1200
3500

3000 1000

2500 800

2000
600
475
447
1500
400
1000 251 265

121 200
500
61
21
0
0 0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: IRENA [1] Annual ( Right ) Cumulative ( Left )

The recent stagnation of solar energy development in Thailand has a lot to do with the attitude of
the government. At present, the application of Thailand's renewable energy industry is still the 2018
version of the Power Development Plan (PDP). The plan defines a roadmap for Thailand's generation,
distribution, and consumption targets, with the goal of the increasing net generation from 46,090
MW in 2017 to 77,211 MW in 2037, a 67% increase. It will add 56,431 MW of capacity (37% of which should
come from renewable energy) and phase out 25,310 MW. The plan also states that by 2037, 65% of
the energy mix will rely on fossil fuels (53% natural gas, 12% coal) and 35% on non-fossil fuels.
Compared to the 2015 plan, the new plan reduces reliance on coal (23% to 12%) and increases
reliance on natural gas (37% to 53%). It is not difficult to see that this plan is mainly to replace
coal-fired power generation with natural gas to reduce carbon emissions, so it is not difficult to
understand why Thailand's renewable energy development has been so slow recently

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 With the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) 2018 incorporated into the Power Development
Plan (PDP), the Thai government is working to develop more renewable energy power plants over the
next 20 years. The government aims to increase the share of renewable energy, including imported
hydropower, in total energy consumption to 30% by 2037 [27].

Although Thailand does not currently have a net-zero carbon emissions plan, the government is
developing a long-term low-greenhouse gas emissions development strategy to help Thailand
achieve carbon neutrality. At the World Leaders Summit of the Conference of the Parties (COP26) l
ast November, the Prime Minister of Thailand announced that it will reach carbon neutral by 2050
and net-zero greenhouse gas emissions before 2065 [28]. Although Thailand has not signed a
paper to phase out coal-fired power plants by 2030, the government has pledged to gradually
replace them with easily accessible renewable and green energy sources such as solar and
wind power.

Furthermore, the PDP will be revised again this year. The specific rules are still unclear. It is expected to
focus on the floating body project of the reservoir, industrial and commercial roofs, power grid
upgrades, and the EV industry [29]. There are various indications that Thailand's new energy market
may receive the government's attention this year, and then introduce relevant support policies.
Therefore, in Southeast Asia, Thailand's solar PV market is still worth looking forward to.

20 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

 03
SUMMARY
In general, after two years of explosive growth in Vietnam's solar PV market, the annual installed
capacity of photovoltaics in Southeast Asia has returned to a steady growth trend. Among the six
Southeast Asian countries with the most development potential, Singapore's path to achieving
carbon neutrality is mainly to import green power from Indonesia, while the country can only
develop rooftop and floating solar due to the limitation of land resources. Indonesia's way to
decarbonize by 2050 still relies on CCUS from coal-fired power plants, with solar power having the
highest planned capacity of all renewable energy sources. Since Indonesia is the core country
that imports green electricity from Singapore, utility-scale solar is the focus of the country's future
development. Since the rush installation of solar PV in Vietnam has ended, and the cumulative
installed capacity has been veryclose to the target planned by the government, the Vietnamese
government's next development focus will be wind power. Of course, Vietnam's photovoltaic
market stillhas great potential for development in the long run.

The burgeoning solar PV market in the Philippines has benefited from the renewable energy
auction system introduced by the government. Although the government has not set a goal of
net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, it can be concluded from the existing renewable energy
development goals and solar rooftop adoption act that the prosperity of the Philippine solar
market will continue, especially in rooftop solar and utility-scale solar. The solar market in
Malaysia is similar to that of the Philippines. Its stable development benefits from the
government's implementation of large-scale solar auctions (LSS), which have successfully held
four solar auctions so far. Since the abundance of solar power resources in Malaysia is much
higher than that of other renewable energy sources, there is no doubt that photovoltaics are the
main force for the government to develop renewable energy, especially utility-scale solar and
rooftop solar. Although the development of Thailand's photovoltaic market has been nearly
stagnant for three years, this is because the government mainly relies on natural gas power
generation to replace coal power generation to reduce carbon emissions. The policies related
to renewable energy use the 2018 version. Fortunately, the Thai government intends to revise the
Power Development Plan (PDP) recently, and the Prime Minister of Thailand has indicated his
attitude to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Therefore, Thailand's solar market will usher in the
second spring after the release of relevant policies.

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 04
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23 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

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24 STATE OF ASEAN SOLAR MARKETS WHITE PAPER 2022

CAMI WANG
Marketing & Partnerships
email : marketing@leader-associates.com
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