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Second Edition

Quantitative Methods
and Socio-Economic
Applications in

GIS

Fahui Wang
Second Edition

Quantitative Methods
and Socio-Economic
Applications in

GIS
Second Edition

Quantitative Methods
and Socio-Economic
Applications in

GIS
Fahui Wang

Boca Raton London New York

CRC Press is an imprint of the

Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
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Version Date: 20141107

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 In loving memory of Katherine Z. Wang
To Lei and our three J’s (Jenny, Joshua, and Jacqueline)
Contents
List of Figures........................................................................................................... xv
List of Tables............................................................................................................xix
Foreword..................................................................................................................xxi
Preface.................................................................................................................. xxiii
Author...................................................................................................................xxvii
List of Major GIS Datasets and Program Files......................................................xxix
List of Quick References for Spatial Analysis Tasks.............................................xxxi

Section I  GIS and Basic Spatial Analysis Tasks

Chapter 1 Getting Started with ArcGIS: Data Management and

Basic Spatial Analysis Tools.................................................................3
1.1 Spatial and Attribute Data Management in ArcGIS..................3
1.1.1 Map Projections and Spatial Data Models....................4
1.1.2 Attribute Data Management and Attribute Join............ 5
1.2 Spatial Analysis Tools in ArcGIS: Queries, Spatial Joins,
and Map Overlays....................................................................... 7
1.3 Case Study 1: Mapping and Analyzing Population
Density Pattern in Baton Rouge, Louisiana............................. 10
1.3.1 Part 1: Mapping the Population Density Pattern
across Census Tracts................................................... 10
1.3.2 Part 2: Analyzing the Population Density Pattern
across Concentric Rings.............................................. 16
1.4 Summary.................................................................................. 23
Appendix 1: Identifying Contiguous Polygons by Spatial
Analysis Tools.......................................................................... 23

Chapter 2 Measuring Distance and Time............................................................ 27

2.1 Measures of Distance............................................................... 27
2.2 Computing Network Distance and Time.................................. 29
2.3 Distance Decay Rule................................................................ 32
2.4 Case Study 2: Computing Distances and Travel Time to
Public Hospitals in Louisiana................................................... 33
2.4.1 Part 1: Measuring Euclidean and Manhattan
Distances.....................................................................34
2.4.2 Part 2: Measuring Travel Time................................... 38
2.5 Summary.................................................................................. 41

vii
viii Contents

Appendix 2A: Valued Graph Approach to the Shortest

Route Problem.......................................................................... 41
Appendix 2B: Estimating Travel Time Matrix by Google Maps API..... 42

Chapter 3 Spatial Smoothing and Spatial Interpolation...................................... 47

3.1 Spatial Smoothing.................................................................... 47
3.1.1 Floating Catchment Area (FCA) Method................... 48
3.1.2 Kernel Density Estimation.......................................... 49
3.2 Point-Based Spatial Interpolation............................................. 50
3.2.1 Global Interpolation Methods..................................... 50
3.2.2 Local Interpolation Methods....................................... 51
3.3 Case Study 3A: Mapping Place Names in Guangxi, China....... 53
3.3.1 Part 1: Spatial Smoothing by the Floating
Catchment Area Method............................................. 53
3.3.2 Part 2: Spatial Interpolation by Various Methods....... 56
3.4 Area-Based Spatial Interpolation............................................. 59
3.5 Case Study 3B: Area-Based Interpolations of Population
in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.......................................................60
3.5.1 Part 1. Using the Areal Weighting Interpolation
to Transform Data from Census Tracts to School
Districts in 2010..........................................................60
3.5.2 Part 2. Using the Target-Density Weighting
(TDW) Interpolation to Interpolate Data from
Census Tracts in 2010 to Census Tracts in 2000......... 61
3.6 Summary..................................................................................64
Appendix 3A: Empirical Bayes Estimation for Spatial Smoothing........64
Appendix 3B: Network Hierarchical Weighting Method for
Areal Interpolation.................................................................... 65

Section II  Basic Quantitative Methods and

Applications

Chapter 4 GIS-Based Trade Area Analysis and Application in

Business Geography............................................................................ 69
4.1 Basic Methods for Trade Area Analysis................................... 70
4.1.1 Analog Method and Regression Models..................... 70
4.1.2 Proximal Area Method................................................ 70
4.2 Gravity Models for Delineating Trade Areas........................... 72
4.2.1 Reilly’s Law................................................................. 72
4.2.2 Huff Model.................................................................. 73
4.2.3 Link between Reilly’s Law and Huff Model............... 74
4.2.4 Extensions of the Huff Model..................................... 75
Contents ix

4.3 Case Study 4A: Defining Fan Bases of Cubs and

White Sox in Chicago Region.................................................. 76
4.3.1 Part 1. Defining Fan Base Areas by the Proximal
Area Method............................................................... 78
4.3.2 Part 2. Defining Fan Base Areas and Mapping
Probability Surface by Huff Model............................. 79
4.3.3 Discussion................................................................... 81
4.4 Case Study 4B: Estimating Trade Areas of Public
Hospitals in Louisiana.............................................................. 82
4.4.1 Part 1. Defining Hospital Service Areas by the
Proximal Area Method................................................ 82
4.4.2 Part 2. Defining Hospital Service Areas by Huff
Model........................................................................... 83
4.5 Concluding Remarks................................................................ 87
Appendix 4A: Economic Foundation of the Gravity Model............... 88
Appendix 4B: A Toolkit for Implementing the Huff Model...............90

Chapter 5 GIS-Based Measures of Spatial Accessibility and Application in

Examining Health Care Access.......................................................... 93
5.1 Issues on Accessibility.............................................................. 93
5.2 Floating Catchment Area Methods.......................................... 95
5.2.1 Earlier Versions of Floating Catchment Area
(FCA) Method............................................................. 95
5.2.2 Two-Step Floating Catchment Area (2SFCA)
Method........................................................................96
5.3 Gravity-Based and Generalized 2SFCA Models...................... 98
5.3.1 Gravity-Based Accessibility Index.............................. 98
5.3.2 Comparison of the 2SFCA and Gravity-Based
Methods.......................................................................99
5.3.3 Generalized 2SFCA Model....................................... 100
5.4 Case Study 5: Measuring Spatial Accessibility to
Primary Care Physicians in Chicago Region......................... 101
5.4.1 Part 1. Implementing the 2SFCA Method................. 102
5.4.2 Part 2. Implementing the Gravity-Based
Accessibility Model................................................... 105
5.4.3 Discussion................................................................. 108
5.5 Concluding Comments........................................................... 108
Appendix 5A: A Property of Accessibility Measures....................... 110
Appendix 5B: A Toolkit of Automated Spatial Accessibility
Measures................................................................................. 112

Chapter 6 Function Fittings by Regressions and Application in Analyzing

Urban Density Patterns..................................................................... 115
6.1 Density Function Approach to Urban and Regional
Structures................................................................................ 115
x Contents

6.1.1 Urban Density Functions........................................... 115

6.1.2 Regional Density Functions...................................... 117
6.2 Function Fittings for Monocentric Models............................. 118
6.2.1 Four Simple Bivariate Functions............................... 118
6.2.2 Other Monocentric Functions................................... 120
6.2.3 GIS and Regression Implementations....................... 121
6.3 Nonlinear and Weighted Regressions in Function Fittings.... 122
6.4 Function Fittings for Polycentric Models............................... 126
6.4.1 Polycentric Assumptions and Corresponding
Functions................................................................... 126
6.4.2 GIS and Regression Implementations....................... 128
6.5 Case Study 6: Analyzing Urban Density Patterns in
Chicago Urban Area............................................................... 129
6.5.1 Part 1: Function Fittings for Monocentric Models
at the Census Tract Level.......................................... 130
6.5.2 Part 2: Function Fittings for Polycentric Models
at the Census Tract Level.......................................... 133
6.5.3 Part 3: Function Fittings for Monocentric Models
at the Township Level............................................... 134
6.6 Discussions and Summary..................................................... 136
Appendix 6A: Deriving Urban Density Functions............................ 137
Appendix 6B: Centrality Measures and Association with Urban
Densities................................................................................. 139
Appendix 6C: OLS Regression for a Linear Bivariate Model.......... 140

Chapter 7 Principal Components, Factor and Cluster Analyses, and

Application in Social Area Analysis................................................. 143
7.1 Principal Components Analysis............................................. 144
7.2 Factor Analysis....................................................................... 145
7.3 Cluster Analysis...................................................................... 149
7.4 Social Area Analysis.............................................................. 151
7.5 Case Study 7: Social Area Analysis in Beijing...................... 153
7.6 Discussions and Summary..................................................... 159
Appendix 7: Discriminant Function Analysis................................... 162

Chapter 8 Spatial Statistics and Applications.................................................... 163

8.1 The Centrographic Measures................................................. 164
8.2 Case Study 8A: Measuring Geographic Distributions of
Racial–Ethnic Groups in Chicago Urban Area...................... 166
8.3 Spatial Cluster Analysis Based on Feature Locations............ 168
8.3.1 Tests for Global Clustering Based on Feature
Locations................................................................... 168
8.3.2 Tests for Local Clusters Based on Feature
Locations................................................................... 168
Contents xi

8.4 Case Study 8B: Spatial Cluster Analysis of Place Names

in Guangxi, China.................................................................. 170
8.5 Spatial Cluster Analysis Based on Feature Values................. 172
8.5.1 Defining Spatial Weights........................................... 172
8.5.2 Tests for Global Clustering Based on Feature
Values........................................................................ 173
8.5.3 Tests for Local Clusters Based on Feature Values.... 175
8.6 Spatial Regression.................................................................. 176
8.6.1 Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model............. 176
8.6.2 Geographically Weighted Regression....................... 178
8.7 Case Study 8C: Spatial Cluster and Regression Analyses
of Homicide Patterns in Chicago........................................... 178
8.7.1 Part 1: Spatial Cluster Analysis of Homicide Rates.. 180
8.7.2 Part 2: Regression Analysis of Homicide Patterns.... 182
8.8 Summary................................................................................ 187
Appendix 8: Spatial Filtering Methods for Regression Analysis...... 190

Section III Advanced Quantitative Methods and

Applications
Chapter 9 Regionalization Methods and Application in Analysis
of Cancer Data................................................................................... 193
9.1 Small Population Problem and Regionalization..................... 193
9.2 Spatial Order and the Modified Scale–Space Clustering
(MSSC) Methods.................................................................... 196
9.3 REDCAP Method................................................................... 199
9.4 Case Study 9: Constructing Geographical Areas for
Analysis of Late-Stage Breast Cancer Risks in the
Chicago Region...................................................................... 201
9.5 Summary................................................................................209
Appendix 9A: Poisson-Based Regression Analysis.......................... 212
Appendix 9B: Toolkit of the Mixed-Level Regionalization
Method..................................................................................213

Chapter 10 System of Linear Equations and Application of Garin–Lowry

Model in Simulating Urban Population and Employment Patterns.. 217
10.1 System of Linear Equations................................................... 217
10.2 Garin–Lowry Model.............................................................. 219
10.2.1 Basic versus Nonbasic Economic Activities............. 219
10.2.2 Model’s Formulation................................................. 220
10.2.3 An Illustrative Example............................................ 222
10.3 Case Study 10: Simulating Population and Service
Employment Distributions in a Hypothetical City................. 223
xii Contents

10.4 Discussion and Summary....................................................... 229

Appendix 10A: Input–Output Model................................................ 230
Appendix 10B: Solving a System of Nonlinear Equations............... 231
Appendix 10C: Toolkit for Calibrating the Garin– Lowry Model..... 233
Appendix 10D: Cellular Automata (CA) for Urban Land Use
Modeling................................................................................. 233

Chapter 11 Linear Programming and Applications in Examining Wasteful

Commuting and Allocating Healthcare Providers............................ 237
11.1 Linear Programming and the Simplex Algorithm................. 238
11.1.1 LP Standard Form..................................................... 238
11.1.2 Simplex Algorithm.................................................... 238
11.2 Case Study 11A: Measuring Wasteful Commuting
in Columbus, Ohio.................................................................. 241
11.2.1 Issue of Wasteful Commuting and Model
Formulation............................................................... 241
11.2.2 Data Preparation in ArcGIS...................................... 242
11.2.3 Measuring Wasteful Commuting in an R Program....245
11.3 Integer Programming and Location–Allocation Problems.... 247
11.3.1 General Forms and Solutions for Integer
Programming............................................................ 247
11.3.2 Location–Allocation Problems.................................248
11.4 Case Study 11B: Allocating Health Care Providers in
Baton Rouge, Louisiana.......................................................... 251
11.5 Summary................................................................................ 254
Appendix 11A: Hamilton’s Model on Wasteful Commuting............ 254
Appendix 11B: Coding Linear Programming in SAS....................... 256
Appendix 11C: Programming Approach to Minimal Disparity in
Accessibility........................................................................... 257

Chapter 12 Monte Carlo Method and Its Application in Urban Traffic

Simulation......................................................................................... 259
12.1 Monte Carlo Simulation Method............................................260
12.1.1 Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation...................260
12.1.2 Monte Carlo Applications in Spatial Analysis..........260
12.2 Travel Demand Modeling....................................................... 262
12.3 Examples of Monte Carlo–Based Spatial Simulation............264
12.4 Case Study 12: Monte Carlo–Based Traffic Simulation in
Baton Rouge, Louisiana..........................................................266
12.4.1 Data Preparation and Program Overview.................266
12.4.2 Module 1: Interzonal Trip Estimation....................... 269
12.4.3 Module 2: Monte Carlo Simulation of Trip
Origins and Destinations........................................... 272
Contents xiii

12.4.4 Module 3: Monte Carlo Simulation of Trip

Distribution................................................................ 273
12.4.5 Module 4: Trip Assignment and Model
Validation.................................................................. 273
12.5 Summary................................................................................ 276
References.............................................................................................................. 279
List of Figures
FIGURE 1.1 Dialog window for attribute query.................................................... 12
FIGURE 1.2 Dialog window for spatial query...................................................... 13
FIGURE 1.3 Dialog windows for projecting a spatial dataset............................... 14
FIGURE 1.4 Dialog window for calculating a field............................................... 15
FIGURE 1.5 Dialog window for defining mapping symbols................................ 16
FIGURE 1.6 Population density pattern in Baton Rouge in 2010......................... 17
FIGURE 1.7 Dialog window for multiple ring buffer............................................ 18
FIGURE 1.8 Dialog window for the Dissolve tool................................................ 19
FIGURE 1.9 Dialog window for creating a graph in ArcGIS...............................20
FIGURE 1.10 Dialog window for spatial join....................................................... 21
FIGURE 1.11 P
 opulation density patterns based on data at the census tract
and block levels............................................................................... 22
FIGURE 1.12 Flow chart for Case Study 1............................................................ 22
FIGURE A1.1 Rook versus queen contiguity.........................................................24
FIGURE A1.2 Workflow for defining queen contiguity.........................................24
FIGURE 2.1 An example for the label-setting algorithm...................................... 30
FIGURE 2.2 D
 ialog window for geocoding hospitals based on geographic
coordinates....................................................................................... 35
FIGURE 2.3 Dialog window for geocoding hospitals based on street
addresses........................................................................................ 36
FIGURE 2.4 Dialog window for an attribute join................................................. 37
FIGURE A2.1 A valued-graph example................................................................ 41
FIGURE A2.2 Dialog window for defining Toolbox properties............................ 43
FIGURE A2.3 G
 oogle Maps API tool user interface for computing
O-D travel time matrix..................................................................44
FIGURE A2.4 Estimated travel time by ArcGIS and Google............................... 45
FIGURE 3.1 Floating catchment area method for spatial smoothing........................ 48
FIGURE 3.2 Kernel density estimation................................................................. 49

xv
xvi List of Figures

FIGURE 3.3 Zhuang and non-Zhuang place names in Guangxi, China............... 54

FIGURE 3.4 Dialog window for summarization................................................... 55
FIGURE 3.5 Zhuang place name ratios in Guangxi by the FCA method............. 57
FIGURE 3.6 Kernel density of Zhuang place names in Guangxi......................... 57
FIGURE 3.7 S
 patial interpolation of Zhuang place names in Guangxi by
the IDW method............................................................................... 58
FIGURE 3.8 Population change rate in Baton Rouge 2000–2010......................... 63
FIGURE 3.9 Flow chart for implementing the TDW method............................... 63
FIGURE 4.1 Constructing Thiessen polygons for five points................................ 71
FIGURE 4.2 Reilly’s law of retail gravitation................................................... 72
FIGURE 4.3 Proximal areas for the Cubs and White Sox.................................... 77
FIGURE 4.4 Probability of choosing the Cubs by the Huff model....................... 81
FIGURE 4.5 Proximal areas for public hospitals in Louisiana.............................84
FIGURE 4.6 Service areas for public hospitals in Louisiana by Huff model....... 86
FIGURE 4.7 P
 robability of visiting LSUHSC-Shreveport Hospital by Huff
model................................................................................................ 87
FIGURE A4.1 Interface for implementing the Huff model................................... 91
FIGURE 5.1 Basic floating catchment area method in Euclidean distance...........96
FIGURE 5.2 Two-step floating catchment area method in travel time................. 98
FIGURE 5.3 Conceptualizing distance decay in G2SFCA................................. 101
FIGURE 5.4 Flow chart for implementing the 2SFCA in ArcGIS...................... 104
FIGURE 5.5 A
 ccessibility to primary care physician in Chicago region by
2SFCA............................................................................................ 105
FIGURE 5.6 A
 ccessibility to primary care physician in Chicago region by
2SFCA............................................................................................ 106
FIGURE 5.7 C
 omparison of accessibility scores by the 2SFCA and gravity-
based methods................................................................................ 109
FIGURE A5.1 Interface for implementing G2SFCA method.............................. 112
FIGURE 6.1 Regional growth patterns by the density function
approach......................................................................................... 119
FIGURE 6.2 Excel dialog window for regression............................................... 122
FIGURE 6.3 Excel dialog window for Format Trendline................................... 123
FIGURE 6.4 Illustration of polycentric assumptions.......................................... 127
List of Figures xvii

FIGURE 6.5 Population density surface and job centers in Chicago.................. 130
FIGURE 6.6 Density versus distance exponential trend line (census tracts)....... 133
FIGURE 6.7 D
 ensity versus distance exponential trend line (survey
townships)....................................................................................... 136
FIGURE 7.1 S
 cree plot and variance explained in principal components
analysis............................................................................................ 147
FIGURE 7.2 M
 ajor steps in principal components analysis and factor
analysis............................................................................................ 148
FIGURE 7.3 Dendrogram for a cluster analysis example.................................... 150
FIGURE 7.4 Conceptual model for urban mosaic............................................... 153
FIGURE 7.5 Districts and subdistricts in Beijing................................................ 154
FIGURE 7.6 Spatial patterns of factor scores in Beijing..................................... 158
FIGURE 7.7 Social areas in Beijing.................................................................... 159
FIGURE 8.1 M
 ean centers and ellipses for racial–ethnic groups in the
Chicago area................................................................................... 167
FIGURE 8.2 SaTScan dialog windows for point-based spatial cluster
analysis....................................................................................... 171
FIGURE 8.3 A spatial cluster of Zhuang place names in Guangxi, China......... 172
FIGURE 8.4 ArcGIS dialog window for computing Getis–Ord General G....... 173
FIGURE 8.5 Clusters of homicide rates based on local Moran’s Ii..................... 183
FIGURE 8.6 Clusters of homicide rates based on Gi∗.......................................... 184
FIGURE 8.7 GeoDa dialog window for defining spatial weights....................... 186
FIGURE 8.8 GeoDa dialog window for regression............................................. 187
FIGURE 8.9 Standard residuals in the GWR model........................................... 188
FIGURE 8.10 Spatial variations of coefficients from the GWR model.............. 189
FIGURE 9.1 Female breast cancer death rates in Illinois for 2003–2007........... 194
FIGURE 9.2 Example of assigning spatial order values to areas........................ 197
FIGURE 9.3 Example illustrating REDCAP........................................................ 200
FIGURE 9.4 Interface windows in REDCAP......................................................204
FIGURE 9.5 L
 ate-stage breast cancer rates in zip code areas in the Chicago
region in 2000.................................................................................206
FIGURE 9.6 D
 istribution of late-stage breast cancer rates in the Chicago
region in 2000.................................................................................207
xviii List of Figures

FIGURE 9.7 Screen shot for “Dissolve” in data aggregation..............................209

FIGURE 9.8 L
 ate-stage breast cancer rates in newly defined areas in
Chicago in 2000............................................................................. 210
FIGURE 9.9 H
 ot and cold spots of late-stage breast cancer rates in newly
defined areas in the Chicago region in 2000.................................. 211
FIGURE A9.1 User interface of the MLR method.............................................. 214
FIGURE 10.1 I nteraction between population and employment distributions
in a city.......................................................................................... 219
FIGURE 10.2 A simple city for illustration......................................................... 222
FIGURE 10.3 Spatial structure of a hypothetical city.........................................224
FIGURE 10.4 Population distributions in various scenarios............................... 228
FIGURE 10.5 Service employment distributions in various scenarios............... 228
FIGURE A10.1 Interface of the Garin–Lowry model tool.................................. 234
FIGURE 11.1 T
 AZs with employment and resident workers in Columbus,
Ohio............................................................................................... 243
FIGURE 11.2 Interface of R................................................................................246
FIGURE 11.3 Five selected hospitals in the p-median model............................. 253
FIGURE 12.1 Monte Carlo simulations of (a) resident workers, and (b) jobs..... 265
FIGURE 12.2 Traffic monitoring stations and adjacent areas in Baton Rouge..... 267
FIGURE 12.3 Workflow of the TSME................................................................ 269
FIGURE 12.4 TSME interface for the intrazonal trip estimation module.......... 271
FIGURE 12.5 T
 SME interface for the Monte Carlo simulation of O’s and
D’s module.................................................................................... 272
FIGURE 12.6 T
 SME interface for the Monte Carlo simulation of trips
module.......................................................................................... 274
FIGURE 12.7 TSME interface for the trip assignment and validation module...... 275
FIGURE 12.8 Observed versus simulated traffic................................................ 276
List of Tables
TABLE 1.1 Types of Relationships in Combining Tables........................................ 6
TABLE 1.2 Types of Spatial Joins in ArcGIS.......................................................... 9
TABLE 1.3 Comparison of Spatial Query, Spatial Join and Map Overlay............ 10
TABLE 2.1 Solution to the Shortest Route Problem.............................................. 31
TABLE 4.1 Fan Bases for Cubs and White Sox by Trade Area Analysis.............. 79
TABLE 4.2 Population by Hospital Trade Areas in Louisiana.............................. 85
TABLE 5.1 Comparison of Accessibility Measures............................................. 107
TABLE A5.1 Items to Be Defined in the Accessibility Toolkit Interface............ 113
TABLE 6.1 Linear Regressions for a Monocentric City...................................... 123
TABLE 6.2 Polycentric Assumptions and Corresponding Functions.................. 128
TABLE 6.3 Regressions Based on Monocentric Functions................................. 132
TABLE 6.4 Regressions Based on Polycentric Assumptions 1 and 2.................. 135
TABLE 7.1 Idealized Factor Loadings in Social Area Analysis.......................... 152
TABLE 7.2 Basic Statistics for Socioeconomic Variables in Beijing..................... 155
TABLE 7.3 Eigenvalues from Principal Components Analysis........................... 156
TABLE 7.4 Factor Loadings in Social Area Analysis.......................................... 157
TABLE 7.5 Characteristics of Social Areas......................................................... 160
TABLE 7.6 Zones and Sectors Coded by Dummy Variables............................... 160
TABLE 7.7 Regressions for Testing Zonal versus Sector Structures................... 161
TABLE 8.1 R
 otated Factor Patterns of Socioeconomic Variables in Chicago
in 1990............................................................................................... 180
TABLE 8.2 OLS and Spatial Regressions of Homicide Rates in Chicago.......... 185
TABLE 9.1 Approaches to the Small Population Problem.................................... 196
TABLE 9.2 D
 escriptive Statistics for Female Breast Cancer by Zip Code
and by Constructed New Areas in Chicago Metro Area in 2000.....202
TABLE 9.3 R
 egression Results for Late-Stage Breast Cancer Risks in the
Chicago Region in 2000....................................................................207
TABLE A9.1 Items to Be Defined in the MLR Toolkit Interface......................... 215

xix
xx List of Tables

TABLE 10.1 S
 imulated Scenarios of Population and Service Employment
Distributions.................................................................................... 227
TABLE 11.1 Location–Allocation Models........................................................... 250
TABLE 11.2 Service Areas for the Clinics.......................................................... 253
TABLE 12.1 M
 ajor Tasks and Estimated Computation Time in Traffic
Simulation........................................................................................ 271
Foreword
This book introduces the reader in a gentle and unassuming way to the notion that
the spatial structure of cities and regions is organized around ideas about the spatial
geometry of cities in terms of distances, densities of occupation, and nearness or
proximity usually referred to as accessibility. These are the driving forces of the way
spatial structures defining our cities self-organize into recognizable forms and func-
tions, and during the last 50 years, they have been catalogued and researched using
formal methods and models that provide a unifying sense of the way the physical
form of cities is organized. In general, cities grow from some central location, tradi-
tionally the marketplace that is often established accidently or relates to some pre-
dominant natural advantage such as a river crossing or harbor. But as the city grows
around this pole or center, it provides the essential structure of the city with its land
uses and movement patterns, reinforcing the resulting configuration. Sometimes,
when the centralizing forces are destroyed by those of decentralization, new hubs or
centers emerge in the periphery—edge cities, thus generating landscapes which are
polycentric, composed of multiple cores and clusters of different sizes which func-
tion in an autonomous whole.
These are the theories and models that constitute the subject matter of this text.
Fahui Wang provides an excellent introduction to these various models and the meth-
ods that are used to link them to data and thence to prediction, but he does much
more than this for he casts all the models that he introduces into a framework which
is dominated by desktop GIS, specifically ArcGIS. Not only is the text an excellent
and cogent summary of the main theories that explain the spatial structure of our
cities, it is a working manual for making these theories operational by turning theo-
ries into models that are then estimated or fitted to existing cities using the various
software and extensions that have been developed in the field of GIS during the last
20 years. Readers are thus treated to a view of operational theory building and mod-
eling in the social sciences with the focus on spatial structures and contemporary
software which ultimately empowers the persistent reader who works through the
book with tools and methods for turning theory into practice.
This revised and extended edition of Fahui Wang’s book, originally published as
Quantitative Methods and Applications in GIS in 2006, is divided into three sec-
tions. Section I deals with getting started with ArcGIS, which focuses on key func-
tions involving mapping population densities, computing distances and travel times,
and interpolating and smoothing spatial surfaces from discrete points and areal data.
This sets the scene for Section II which deals with basic quantitative methods and
applications starting with defining trade areas or hinterlands which are key factors
in business geography. Measuring accessibilities that depend on gravity and distance
come next with applications to health care, and this is followed by linear analysis that
is used to transform nonlinear functions of population density into forms that can be
estimated for cities. Extracting structure from data at different scales using principal
components and factor analysis with clustering comes next, and this section of the

xxi
xxii Foreword

book concludes with a new chapter on spatial statistics that also builds on clustering
with respect to local and more global structures.
Section III of the book treats more advanced topics: regionalization which again
relates to clustering, various linear methods of land use modeling and optimiza-
tion, and finally, a new chapter on modeling of traffic based on Monte Carlo tech-
niques. A very nice feature of the book is the wealth of examples that are included.
Different places such as Louisiana State, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Columbus, Ohio
and Chicago, Illinois in the United States, and Beijing and Guangxi Province of
China, among other locations are used, while the applications of these various tech-
niques are to population density, retail trade, health care, hospital provision, social
area analysis, the spatial incidence of cancer, and traffic.
In this book, Fahui Wang shows just how far GIS has progressed. Virtually
everything that was developed prior to the GIS age can now be applied, further
developed, and interpreted through the GIS lens, and in some respects, his examples
illustrate the great range and diversity of potential applications which are the marks
of a mature technology. In fact, GIS is becoming part of the routine tool kit that any
analyst would use in studying data that varies across space. What is intriguing about
the treatment here is that the edifice of theory of urban and regional systems that
draws on locational analysis and social physics, although still advancing, is becom-
ing increasingly integrated with GIS, and it is treatment of the subject area such as
that developed here that shows how relevant these tools are to contemporary urban
policy. In fact, it is this focus on policy that marks the book. Those reading it will
find that the author weaves together explanations of the theories involved with their
translation into tools and models and their estimation using straightforward statistics
with notions about different ways of applying these models to real problems that
have strong policy implications. At the end of the day, it is not only understanding
cities better that is the quest for the tools introduced here but also understanding
them in deep enough ways so that effective policies can be advanced and tested that
will provide more sustainable and resilient cities—one of the challenges of near-
and medium-term futures in the socioeconomic domain. This book sets a standard,
shows how this can be achieved, and charts the way forward.

Michael Batty
Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis
University College, London, United Kingdom
Preface
One of the most important advancements in recent social science research (includ-
ing applied social sciences and public policy) has been the application of quantita-
tive or computational methods in studying the complex human or social systems.
Research centers in computational social sciences have flourished in major uni-
versity campuses including Harvard University (http://www.iq.harvard.edu/),
Stanford University (https://css-center.stanford.edu/), UCLA (http://ccss.ucla.edu/),
University of Washington (http://julius.csscr.washington.edu/), and George Mason
University (http://www.css.gmu.edu/). Many conferences have also been organized
around this theme (http://computationalsocialscience.org/). Geographic Information
System (GIS) has played an important role in this movement because of its capability
of integrating and analyzing various data sets, in particular spatial data. The Center
for Spatially Integrated Social Science (CSISS) at the University of California Santa
Barbara, funded by the National Science Foundation (1999–2007), has been an
important force in promoting the usage of GIS technologies in social sciences. The
Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA) at the University College, London,
UK, is also known for its leading efforts in applied GIS and geo-simulation research
with a focus on cities. The growth of GIS has made it increasingly known as geo-
graphic information science (GISc), which covers broader issues such as spatial data
quality and uncertainty, design and development of spatial data structure, social, and
legal issues related to GIS, and many others.
Many of today’s students in geography and other social science-related fields (e.g.,
sociology, anthropology, business management, city and regional planning, public
administration) share the same excitement in GIS. But their interest in GIS may fade
away quickly if the GIS usage is limited to managing spatial data and mapping. In
the meantime, a significant number of students complain that courses on statistics,
quantitative methods, and spatial analysis are too dry and feel irrelevant to their
interests. Over years of teaching GIS, spatial analysis, and quantitative methods, I
have learned the benefits of blending them together and practicing them in case stud-
ies using real-world data. Students can sharpen their GIS skills by applying some
GIS techniques to detecting hot spots of crime, or gain better understanding of a
classic urban land use theory by examining their spatial patterns in a GIS environ-
ment. When students realize that they can use some of the computational methods
and GIS techniques to solve real-world problems in their own field, they become bet-
ter motivated in class. In other words, technical skills in GIS or quantitative methods
are learned in the context of addressing subject issues. Both are important for today’s
competitive job market.
This book is the result of my efforts of integrating GIS and quantitative (com-
putational) methods, demonstrated in various policy-relevant socioeconomic appli-
cations. The applications are chosen with three objectives in mind. The first is to
demonstrate the diversity of issues where GIS can be used to enhance the studies
related to socioeconomic issues and public policy. Applications spread from typical

xxiii
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 CHAPTER XLI.
DECISION OF THE UMPIRES.

A.H. XXXVII. A.D. 658.

The interval passed uneasily. Muâvia

ruled in Syria; Aly, over the rest of the The interregnum.
Moslem world. Neither, for the moment,
interfered with the other. The empire held itself in suspense.
Within the time appointed, Amru
appeared at Dûma, and, shortly after, Abu The Umpires meet.
Mûsa. Each was followed, according to Ramadhân, a.h. XXXVII.
Feb. a.d. 658.
agreement, by a retinue of four hundred
horsemen.[543] Thither also, to the neutral spot, flocked multitudes
from Irâc and from Syria, from Mecca and Medîna. With intense
interest they watched the strange proceeding, which (as they
expected) was about to decide the future of Islam. The leading chiefs
of the Coreish were also there; some, we are told, with the distant
hope that haply the choice might fall on one of themselves.[544]
The Umpires met in a pavilion pitched
for the occasion; and beneath it, a private And confer with each other.
conference was held between the two
alone. The account given by our authorities of what passed between
them, is very brief. The result we must accept, but the colloquy which
led to it is altogether of an uncertain kind. The gist of it is as follows.
Abu Mûsa, pressed by his astute colleague, admitted that the putting
of Othmân to death was a wicked and unjustifiable thing. ‘Then why,’
rejoined Amru, ‘wilt thou not take Muâvia, the avenger of blood, for
his successor?’ ‘If it were a mere question of blood-feud or
kinsmanship,’ Abu Mûsa answered, ‘there were Othmân’s sons with
a nearer claim. Succession to the throne, however, was a matter to
be determined, not by such considerations, but by the vote of the
chief Companions of the Prophet.’ Amru (so the story runs) then
proposed his own son: ‘A just and good man,’ replied Abu Mûsa, ‘but
one whom thou hast already made to take sides in the civil war; and,
Amru! we must above all things beware of kindling mutiny again
amongst the Arab tribes.’ A similar objection shut out Abdallah son of
Zobeir; and the son of Omar was put aside as not having qualities
fitting him for command. ‘Then,’ asked Amru, after all the possible
candidates had been named and negatived, ‘what may be the
judgment that thou wouldest give?’ ‘My judgment,’ answered Abu
Mûsa, ‘would be to depose both Aly and Muâvia, and then leave the
people free to choose whom they will.’ ‘Thy judgment is also mine,’
said Amru promptly; ‘let us go forth.’
The people, in breathless expectation
of the impending announcement, crowded The judgment.
round the pavilion as the Umpires issued
from it. ‘Let them know,’ said Amru to his fellow, ‘that we are agreed.’
Abu Mûsa advanced, and with voice loud and clear,[545] said: ‘We
are agreed upon a decision such as, we trust, will reconcile the
people, and reunite the empire.’ ‘He speaketh true,’ said Amru: ‘step
forth, O Abu Mûsa, and pronounce thy judgment.’[546] Then spoke
Abu Mûsa: ‘Ye people! we have considered the matter well. We see
no other course so likely to restore peace and concord amongst the
people, as to depose Aly and Muâvia, both the one and the other.
After that, ye shall choose a fit man in their room. This is my
judgment.’ He stepped aside, and Amru
advancing said: ‘Ye have heard the Deposing Aly.
sentence of Abu Mûsa. He hath deposed
his fellow; and so do I too depose him. But as for my Chief, Muâvia,
him do I confirm. He is the heir of Othmân, and as avenger of his
blood, the best entitled to succeed.’
The assembly was thunderstruck. Even
the Syrians had never dreamed of Muâvia The people thunderstruck.
achieving such a triumph; nor had it
entered the minds of those on Aly’s side, that their Umpire could be
overreached thus shamefully. ‘What could I do?’ cried Abu Mûsa,
assailed on every hand; ‘he agreed with me, then swerved aside.’
‘No fault of thine,’ said the son of Abbâs: ‘it was the fault of those
who put thee in the place.’ Overwhelmed with reproaches, Abu Mûsa
made his escape and fled to Mecca, where he thenceforward lived in
obscurity.[547] In the heat of his indignation,
the commander of the Kûfa body-guard Muâvia saluted Caliph by the
Syrians.
made an onset upon Amru, and was
roughly handling him, when the people interposed to set him free.
Amru returned forthwith to Damascus, where by acclamation Muâvia
was saluted Caliph by the Syrians.
How the startling intelligence affected
Aly, may be judged by the fact that to the The two Caliphs curse each
other in the daily service.
prescribed daily service he added a
petition cursing by their names, Muâvia, Amru, and several of their
chief adherents. Muâvia was nothing loth to follow his example. And
so the world was edified by the spectacle, in the cathedral temples of
Islam, of the rival Commanders of the Faithful uttering maledictions
in their daily prayers, the one against the other.[548]
 CHAPTER XLII.
THE KHAREJITES, OR THEOCRATIC SEPARATISTS, DEFEATED
AT NEHRWAN.

A.H. XXXVII. A.D. 658.

Aly, as the reader will suppose, was not

content with heaping imprecations on his Aly’s designs against Syria.
antagonist. He resolved on the immediate
renewal of hostilities. But he had other work before him first in
dealing with the fanatics nearer home.
Ever since they had broken up their
camp at Harôra, these, instead of settling Hostile attitude of the
down in sentiments of loyalty and peace, theocractic faction.
Ramadhân, a.h. XXXVII.
had been gaining in aggressive force and Jan. a.d. 658.
stubbornness. There should (such was
their cry) be no oath of fealty but to the Lord alone, the Mighty and
the Glorious. To swear allegiance either to Aly or Muâvia was in
derogation of that great name. ‘Ye are both of you,’ they would say,
‘coursing along, neck and neck, in the race of apostasy: the Syrians
run after Muâvia whether the way be right or wrong, and ye swear for
Aly through black and white. It is nought but blasphemy.’ So they
formulated their creed into one short sentence: No judgment, but the
Lord’s alone; and this they insolently flung in Aly’s teeth.[549] In vain
the Caliph argued, as he had done before, that the Arbitration had
been forced upon him by themselves. ‘It is true,’ they would readily
reply; ‘but we have repented of that lapse; and thou must repent of it
likewise, or else we shall fight against thee; and if so be that we are
slain, we shall meet our Lord with joy.’ Aly
yet hoped to gain them over. He bore with Aly’s forbearance.
their seditious talk; and in a public address
in the Great Mosque at Kûfa, he declared his intention of treating
them with forbearance. ‘They should have free access to the
mosques for prayer. If they joined his army, they should share the
booty like the rest. So long as they refrained themselves from any
overt act of disloyalty, he would use no force of arms against them.’
Instead of softening the fanatics, this
moderation only tended to embolden them. The Khârejites march to
Nehrwân. Shawwâl, a.h.
When the Umpires’ judgment was XXXVII. March, a.d. 658.
announced, they were elated at a result
which in their eyes amply justified their secession at Siffîn. They held
frequent meetings in secret, and resolved on raising the Divine
standard. They looked for heavenly interposition; but even if they
perished, it would be in a righteous cause, sure to triumph in the
end; they would, at any rate, be protesting against a wicked world,
and become inheritors of a blessed futurity. In the month following
the Arbitration, they began accordingly, in concert with the brethren
who sympathised with them at Bussorah, to leave their homes by
stealth. The party from Bussorah, five hundred strong, was pursued
by the governor, Ibn Abbâs; but they effected their escape, and
joined the bands which in greater force had issued forth from Kûfa.
Secular power, and the dignity and pomp of this life, were abhorrent
from these Covenanters’ creed; and it was only after many had
declined the dangerous pre-eminence, and then simply as a
temporary expedient to meet the present necessity, that a chief was
prevailed on to accept the supreme command. The design was to
occupy the city of Medâin, upon the Tigris, and there, under a
Council of Representatives, establish theocratic rule as a model to
the ungodly cities around. But the governor had timely warning, and
repulsed the attempt. They passed on, and crossed the river farther
up in various bodies, and, appointing Nehrwân as their rendezvous,
assembled there to the number of 4,000.
Aly did not at first recognise the serious
character and bearing of the movement. Aly orders levy for Syrian
campaign.
The number of the fanatics was
comparatively insignificant; and he hoped that, when they saw their
former comrades in arms marching against the graceless Syrians,
they would not hesitate again to join his standard. So he mounted
the pulpit and harangued the men of Kûfa. He reprobated the
Umpires, because they had cast the Book of the Lord, equally with
the precedent of the Prophet, behind their backs. Both were
apostates, rejected of the Lord, of his Prophet, and of all good men.
‘Wherefore,’ he concluded, ‘we must begin to fight our battle again at
the point where, on the eve of victory, we were forced to leave it off.
Prepare then to march for Syria, and be ready in your camp without
the city, by the second day of the coming week.’ Then he indited a
despatch to the fanatics at Nehrwân. It was
couched in terms similar to his address, And summons the theocrats,
and ended thus: ‘Now, therefore, when ye who refuse to join him.
have read this, return forthwith and join the army. I am marching
against the common enemy, yours and ours alike; and we have
come back again to the state of things when aforetime at Siffîn ye
were fighting by my side.’ In reply Aly received an insulting message:
‘If he acknowledged his apostasy and repented thereof, then they
would see whether anything could be arranged between them;
otherwise they cast him off as an ungodly heretic.’ The stiff-necked
theocrats were thereupon, for the present, left to their own devices,
and the business of raising levies for Syria proceeded with. But little
enthusiasm was anywhere displayed in the
cause of Aly. Of the 60,000 fighting men Aly marches for Syria.
drawing stipendiary allowances in
Bussorah, 3,000 were with difficulty got together. At Kûfa, after vain
appeal to the loyalty of the city, a conscription was ordered through
the heads of clans; and thus at length an army of threescore and five
thousand men of every rank and class was brought into the field.[550]
With this imposing force, Aly had
already commenced his march on Syria, But is diverted by the
when tidings reached him that the fanatics excesses of the fanatic host.
were committing horrid and cold-blooded outrages in the country
round about their camp.[551] A messenger was sent to make inquiry;
but he too was put to death by the insurgents. The tidings of their
proceedings became more and more alarming, and the men of Kûfa
demanded to be led against them; ‘for how,’ said they, ‘can we leave
such outlaws unpunished and at large behind us, and our homes
exposed to their unlicensed cruelties?’ Aly himself, seeing that this
must be done, changed his course eastward, crossed the Tigris, and
marched against the fanatics. When now near to Nehrwân, he sent a
messenger forward, to demand that the murderers should be
delivered up. ‘Surrender these to justice,’ he said, ‘and ye shall be
left alone, until the Lord grant us victory in Syria, and then haply He
shall have turned your hearts again toward us.’ They replied that
‘they were all equally responsible for what had passed, and that the
blood of the ungodly heretics they had slain was lawful to them.’ A
parley ensued, in which the Caliph through his captains expostulated
with the misguided fanatics, and offered quarter to all who should
come over to his army, or retire peaceably to their homes. Some
obeyed the call and came over; 500 went
off to a neighbouring Persian town, and The fanatics at Nehrwân
many more dispersed in other directions to dispersed and slain.
their homes at Kûfa or elsewhere. Eighteen hundred remained upon
the field, martyrs to the theocratic creed. With the wild battle cry, On
to Paradise! they rushed upon the Kûfa lances, and were slain to a
man. Aly’s loss was trifling.[552]
It would have been better for the peace
of Islam if none of the four thousand had The Khârejites again appear
escaped. The snake was scotched, not in the field. a.h. XXXVII. a.d.
658.
killed. The fanatic spirit was strangely
catching; and the theocratic cause continued to be canvassed
vigorously and unceasingly, but in secret, at Bussorah and at Kûfa.
However hopeless the attainment of their object might appear, the
fanatics were nerved, if not by the expectation of Divine aid, at the
least by the sure hope of a Martyr’s crown. In the following year
armed bodies once and again appeared unexpectedly in the field,
denouncing Aly, and proclaiming that the Kingdom of the Lord was at
hand. One after another these bands of insurgent fanatics were cut
to pieces, or put to flight with ease. But the effect was unsettling; and
it could not but endamage the name and power of Aly, who now
reaped the fruit of his weak compromise with the enemies of
Othmân, and his neglect to bring them to justice. Fanatical in their
extravagant doctrine, they were too sincere
to combine with any of the political sects, They become a thorn in the
and hence they never came near to Moslem empire.
leaving any permanent mark of their theocratic creed behind them.
But both at this period and in succeeding reigns, we find them at
intervals gathering up their strength to assail the empire, and as
often beaten back. Ever and anon, for years, and even for ages,
these Khârejites still ‘went forth’[553] on their desperate errand, a
thorn in the side of the Caliphate, and a terror to the well-disposed.
 CHAPTER XLIII.
REVOLT OF EGYPT.

A.H. XXXVIII. A.D. 658.

Having thus disposed of the fanatics at

Nehrwân, and recrossed the Tigris, Aly, at Aly abandons the war
the head of his army, turned his face again against Syria. End of XXXVII.
April, a.d. 658.
towards Syria. But the soldiers urged that,
before setting out upon so long a campaign, their armour needed
refitting. ‘Let us return for a little to our homes,’ they said, ‘to furbish
up our swords and lances, and to replenish our quivers.’ Aly
consenting, they marched back and pitched their camp at Nokheila.
This being close to Kûfa, the soldiers dropped off in small parties
thither; and so it came to pass that, in a short time, excepting
commanding officers, the camp was left almost empty. Aly, finding
that no man returned, became impatient, and himself re-entering
Kûfa, again harangued the people on the obligation to go forth with
him and make war on Syria. But exhortation and reproach fell
equally on listless ears. There was no response. Aly lost heart. The
Syrian expedition fell through; and no attempt was made to resume it
further.
Thus closed the thirty-seventh year of
the Hegira. The situation was unchanged. Position of Aly and Muâvia.
Muâvia, with now a colourable title to the
Caliphate, remained undisturbed in his position virtual monarch of
Syria, strong in the loyalty and affections of the province; while Aly,
mortified by an indifferent and partly alienated people, was now to
experience a severer trial.
We turn to Egypt. Before the Syrian war, as already stated, there
was a powerful faction in that dependency of Aly’s Caliphate,
especially at Kharanba, siding with those who demanded satisfaction
for the blood of Othmân; and Cays, having been recalled for leaving
these dissentients alone, Mohammed son of Abu Bekr had been
appointed in his room. Casting aside the
waiting policy of his wiser predecessor, Egypt revolts. a.h. XXXVIII.
Mohammed at once summoned the a.d. 658.
recusants, either to submit themselves to him, or to be gone from
Egypt. They refused, but masking for the present their hostile
designs, watched the issue of the struggle at Siffîn. When the armies
separated from that battle-field, leaving Muâvia still master of Syria,
they gained heart and began to assume the offensive. A party sent
against them was defeated, and the leader slain; and a second
attempt at retrieving the loss met with a like fate. The slumbering
elements of revolt were everywhere aroused.
Aly saw now the mistake which he had
made, but too late. He would have Ashtar, appointed governor,
is poisoned.
reappointed Cays; but Cays declined again
to take the post. The only other fitted for the emergency was Ashtar
the regicide, whom he summoned from his command at Nisibîn, and
sent off in haste to Egypt. But on the way he met with an untimely
death, having been poisoned, at the instigation (it is said) of Muâvia,
by a chief on the Egyptian border with whom he rested.[554] There
was joy at the death of the arch-regicide throughout the land of
Syria, where he had been greatly feared. Aly was equally cast down
by the untoward event. His only resource was now to bid
Mohammed son of Abu Bekr hold on, and do what he could to
retrieve his position. But the faction which
favoured Muâvia gained ground daily; and Mohammed killed and Egypt
when, shortly after, Amru, at the head of a conquered by Amru for
Muâvia. Safar, a.h. XXXVIII.
few thousand men, crossed the border, he July, a.d. 658.
was joined by an overwhelming body of
insurgents. Mohammed, after a vain attempt to meet his enemy in
the field, was easily put to flight. In the struggle he was killed, and his
body ignominiously burned in an ass’s skin.[555] Thus Egypt was lost
to Aly; and Amru, as the lieutenant of the rival Caliph, again became
its governor.
The loss of Egypt was the harder for
Aly to bear, as undoubtedly it might have Mortification of Aly at the
loss, and at the
been averted but for his removal of Cays; lukewarmness of Kûfa.
and even now it might have been retrieved
if the men of Kûfa had not been heartless in his cause. Over and
again he implored them to hasten to the defence of Egypt. With
difficulty two thousand men were got together; but after so long a
delay that they had hardly marched before news of the defeat made
it necessary to recall them. Aly thereupon ascended the pulpit, and
upbraided the people for their spiritless and disloyal attitude. For fifty
days, he had been urging them to go forth, to avenge their fallen
brethren, and to help those who were still struggling for him in the
field. Like a restive wayward camel, that refused its burden, they had
held back. ‘And now,’ he said, in grief and bitterness of spirit, ‘the
son of Abu Bekr is fallen a martyr, and Egypt hath departed from us.’
 CHAPTER XLIV.
THE REMAINDER OF ALY’S REIGN.

A.H. XXXVIII.–XL. A.D. 658–660.

No gleam of fortune lighted up the

remaining days of Aly’s reign. What with Remainder of Aly’s reign.
the rising of fanatics at home, and the
threats of the rival Caliphate abroad, his life was one continual
struggle. And, moreover, the daily exhibition of indifference and
disloyalty in Kûfa, the city of his choice, was a burden and
mortification hard to bear.
The loss of Egypt, and the cruel death
of Mohammed son of Abu Bekr, preyed Insurrection at Bussorah
upon his mind. He withdrew into the suppressed.a.d. 658.
a.h. XXXVIII.

strictest privacy. Ibn Abbâs, fearful lest his

cousin should resign the Caliphate, or do some other rash and
unadvised thing, set out from Bussorah to visit and comfort him. This
becoming known to Muâvia, he took the opportunity, during the
absence of Ibn Abbâs, to send an emissary with the view of stirring
up the disaffected elements at Bussorah. Among certain of the clans,
he was sure of finding many who, equally with himself, sought to
avenge the blood of Othmân; few were zealously attached to the
cause of Aly; the remainder were mostly Khârejites, of the theocratic
faction, now as hostile to Aly as to Muâvia himself. Abdallah, the
Syrian agent, carrying a letter to the citizens of Bussorah, was so
well received, that Ziâd, who held temporary charge of the city, was
forced to retire with the treasures and the gubernatorial pulpit into
the stronghold of a loyal clan, from whence he wrote for help to Kûfa.
Aly at once despatched a chief of influence among the Beni Rabia,
the leading tribe at Bussorah, who were by his persuasion induced to
rally round Ziâd. After severe and bloody fighting in the city, attended
by various success, the rebels were at last defeated, and driven for
refuge to a neighbouring castle. There they were surrounded, and
the castle having been set on fire, Abdallah, with seventy of his
followers, perished in the flames. The victory was decisive for the
time; but the insurrection had brought to light the alarming spread of
disaffection, and showed how precarious was Aly’s grasp upon the
Bedouin races of this factious city.
The spirit of disturbance and unrest
was not confined to Egypt and to Khârejite émeutes.
Bussorah. During the year, we read of five
or six occasions on which considerable bands of Khârejites were
impelled by their theocratic creed to go forth and raise the standard
of rebellion. One after another they met the common fate of
slaughter and dispersion. But though crushed, the frequent repetition
of such desperate enterprises, the fruit of a wild and reckless
fanaticism, had a disturbing effect on the capital and the empire at
large. The most serious of these risings
was that led by Khirrît; and it is the more Rebellion of Khirrît in
remarkable, because this chief had with his Southern Persia,
XXXXVIII. a.d. 658.
a.h.

tribe, the Beni Nâjia, fought bravely by the

side of Aly in the battles both of the Camel and Siffîn. He was now
driven, like many others, by his strong convictions to rebel. Boldly
approaching the throne, he told Aly that since he, as Caliph, had
referred a Divine issue to the arbitration of man, he could obey him
no more, neither stand up behind him in the Mosque at prayer; but
henceforth was sworn to be his enemy. Aly, with his usual patience,
said that he would argue out the matter with him, and arranged a
meeting for the purpose. But the night before the appointed day,
Khirrît stole away from the city with all his following. ‘Gone,’ said Aly,
‘to the devil; lost, like the doomed Thâmudites!’ They were pursued,
but by so small a party that they held it at bay, and in the end
effected their escape to Ahwâz and Râm Hormuz. There they raised
the Persians, Kurds, and Christian mountaineers, by the specious
and inflammatory cry that the payment of taxes to an ungodly Caliph
must be renounced. With a band of apostate Arabs, they kindled
revolt throughout the province of Fars, and put the governor to flight.
A force from Bussorah drove them to the
shores of the Indian Ocean. But luring the suppressed, and Khirrît slain.
people by delusive arguments and
promises, they still gained head; and it was not till after a bloody
battle, in which Khirrît lost his life, that the supremacy of the
Caliphate was re-established in Southern Persia. The Mussulman
prisoners in this campaign were set at
liberty on their taking afresh the oath of Christian captives.
allegiance; but the Christians, five hundred
in number, were all marched away to be sold into captivity. The
women and children, as they were torn from their protectors, wailed
with loud and bitter cries. The hearts of many were softened.
Mascala, Governor of Ardshîr, touched by the scene, took upon
himself the cost of ransoming these Christian captives, and set them
free. Aly, hearing of it, demanded from him immediate payment at a
thousand pieces for each captive; and Mascala, unable to pay down
so great a sum, fled and joined Muâvia.[556]
The defeat of the Khârejites did not at
once restore peace to Persia; for Fars and Ziâd suppresses rebellion in
Kermân threw off their allegiance, and Persia, a.h. XXXIX. a.d. 659,
expelled their governors. To quell the spreading insurrection, Aly was
happy in the selection of Ziâd, the Chancellor of Bussorah, a man,
as we have seen, of conspicuous administrative ability. He carried
with him a great court and retinue; but it was mainly by his ready tact
in setting one rebellious prince against another, and by well-
appointed promises and favours, that he succeeded in restoring
peace. Aly recognised his service by
conferring on him the government of Fars; and is appointed Governor of
and his administration there became so Fars.
famous as to recall to Persian memories the happy age of
Nushirwân. He fixed his court at Istakhr (Persepolis), and built a
castle there, in connection with which his name was remembered for
many ages following.
Though successful thus in Persia, Aly
was still subject to trouble and molestation Expeditions from Syria
against Irâc. a.h. XXXVIII-IX.
nearer home. Muâvia, relieved now from a.d. 658–9.
apprehension on the side of Egypt, began
to annoy his rival by frequent raids on Arabia and the cities beyond
the Syrian desert. The object was various—now to ravage a province
or surprise a citadel, now to exact the tithe from the Bedouin tribes,
or, again, to force upon them allegiance to the Syrian Caliphate.
Such inroads, though not always successful, inspired a sense of
insecurity; and, what was worse than that, they betrayed more
clearly than ever the lukewarmness of the people in the cause of Aly.
These would stir neither hand nor foot to repel the Syrians invading
cities so close to them even as Ain Tamr, Anbâr, and Hît. To show his
displeasure at their listlessness and
disobedience, Aly went forth himself into Safar, a.h. XXXIX. June, a.d.
the field almost unattended. On this, the 659.
men of Kûfa, partly through shame, partly lured by the promise of
increased stipends, marched to the defence of their frontier. During
the year there were eight or ten inroads of this kind from Syria.
Though eventually repelled, it was not always without loss in
prisoners, plunder, and prestige. On one occasion, however, Aly’s
commander, with a flying column, pursued the raiders back into the
heart of Syria as far as Baalbek; and thence, turning northward,
escaped by Ricca again into Irâc. On the
other hand, Muâvia, to show his contempt Muâvia visits Mosul.
for the power of Aly, made an incursion
right across the plain of Upper Mesopotamia. For some days he
remained encamped on the banks of the Tigris; and, after leisurely
inspecting Mosul, which he had never seen before, made his way
back again to Damascus unmolested.
The fortieth year of the Hegira opened
with a new grief for Aly. At the close of the Raid of Bosor on Medîna,
year preceding, as the annual pilgrimage Mecca, and Yemen. a.h. XL.
a.d. 660.
drew near, Muâvia sent Bosor, a brave but
cruel captain of his host, with three thousand men into Arabia, to
secure for him the allegiance of the sacred cities. As he drew nigh to
Medîna, Abu Ayûb, the governor, fled to Kûfa, and Bosor entered
unopposed. Proceeding to the Great Mosque, he mounted the
sacred steps of the Prophet’s pulpit, and, recalling Othmân to mind,
thus addressed the people: ‘O citizens of Medîna! The Aged Man!
Where is the aged, grey-haired man whom, but as yesterday, and in
this very place, I swore allegiance to? Verily, but for my promise to
Muâvia, who bade me stay the sword, I had not left here a soul
alive!’ Then he threatened the leading citizens with death if they
refused to acknowledge Muâvia as their Caliph; and so, fearing for
their lives, all took the oath of allegiance to the Omeyyad ruler.
Passing on to Mecca, the same scene was enacted by the imperious
envoy there, and with the same result.[557] Then he marched south
to Yemen, where he committed great atrocities upon the adherents
of Aly. The governor, Obeidallah son of
Abbâs, escaped to his cousin at Kûfa. But He slays the infant children of
two of his little children, falling into the Aly’s cousin.
tyrant’s hands, were put to death in cold blood, as well as their
Bedouin attendant, who ventured to protest against the cruel act. An
army of four thousand men was despatched in haste from Kûfa, but
too late to stop these outrages; and Bosor made good his escape to
Syria. The wretched peninsula fared no better at the hands of the
relieving army. Many of the inhabitants of Najrân were put to death,
because they belonged to the party of Othmân. The men of Mecca
were forced to recall the oath they had just taken, and again do
homage to Aly. Similarly, the citizens of Medîna swore allegiance to
Hasan, son of Aly, at the point of the sword;[558] but no sooner were
the troops gone, than Abu Horeira, of the opposite faction, resumed
his functions as leader of the daily prayers. The cruel death of his
cousin’s infant children preyed on Aly more, perhaps, than all his
other troubles put together; and he cursed Bosor in the daily service
with a new and bitter imprecation. The disconsolate mother poured
forth her sorrow in plaintive verse, some touching couplets of which
still survive.[559]
Yet another grief was in store for Aly.
He had promoted his cousins, the sons of Abdallah son of Abbâs
Abbâs, to great dignity, giving the chief retires to Mecca.
command in Yemen to one, in Mecca to another, in Medîna to a third;
while Abdallah, the eldest, held the government of Bussorah, the
second city in his Caliphate. Complaints having reached the Court of
certain irregularities in the administration of Bussorah, Aly called
upon his cousin to render an account. Scorning to answer the
demand, Abdallah threw up his office, and, carrying his treasures
with him, retired to Mecca. Aly was much mortified at this unfriendly
act; and still more so by the desertion of his own brother, Ackîl, who
went over to Muâvia.[560]
These troubles, crowding rapidly one
upon another, entirely broke the spirit of Aly, broken in spirit,
Aly. He had no longer the heart to carry on concludes truce with Muâvia.
a.h. XL. a.d. 660.
hostilities with Syria. If he might secure the
Eastern provinces in peaceful subjection to himself, it was all that he
could hope for now. Accordingly, after lengthened correspondence,
an armistice was concluded between Aly and Muâvia, by which they
agreed to lay aside their arms, respect the territory of each other,
and maintain a friendly attitude.
It is possible that a double Caliphate
thus recognised, in two separate and The double Caliphate.
independent empires, by the Rulers of the
East and of the West, might have been prolonged indefinitely, or
even handed down in perpetuity, had not the tragical event occurred
which will be narrated in the following chapter.