Analysis

Consequence Modeling

Once the scenario is defined, source models are used to describe how materials are discharged
from the process which includes information such as initial release rate, quantity released,
release duration, temperature and release phase. A dispersion model is used to describe how
the material is transported downwind and dispersed to a required concentration of interest. In
case of flammable releases, source term information is utilized to determine the thermal
radiation and explosion over-pressure effects using specific models. Large leaks (2 inches) and
line rupture are modeled as continuous release while catastrophic vessel rupture is modeled as
instantaneous release. A widely-used modeling software in industry, PHAST v8.0 (Process
Hazard Analysis Software Tool) developed by DNVGL has been used for consequence
modeling. Unified Dispersion Model in PHAST combines both source term and transport models
and is used for modeling.
Please note that this section on “Consequence Modeling” only provides an overview, highlight
key assumptions and models used in the consequence modeling and is not meant to be
detailed treatise.
Various parameters that affect dispersion are tabulated below including the values used for
modeling during the CA evaluation undertaken under the STL engagement scope:
Table 1 Parameters affecting dispersion

Parameters Significance Values used in modeling

Wind speed is significant as any emitted

gas will be diluted initially by passing
volumes of air. As the wind speed is
i. 5 m/s
increased, the material is carried
downwind faster, but the material is also ii. 1.5 m/s
Wind Speed
diluted faster by a larger quantity of air.
Typical Wind Speed values used in
Significant local variations in wind speed
analysis.
and direction are possible due to terrain
effects even over distances of only a few
kilometers.

Atmospheric stability is an estimate of i. D (Windy Day time) for 5 m/s

the turbulent mixing; stable atmospheric wind speed
conditions lead to the least amount of
Atmospheric ii. F (Still Night time) for 1.5 m/s
mixing and unstable conditions to the
Stability wind speed
most. The stability classes are correlated
to wind speed and the quantity of Most common Atmospheric Stability
sunlight. class used in analysis.

Roughness Measure of terrain characteristics which 1.0 m (typical of process plant).

Parameter affect the mechanical mixing of the air as
 Parameters Significance Values used in modeling

it flows over the ground.

As the release height increases, the

1 m unless for pipeline scenarios
ground concentration decreases since
Release which run on pipe rack where
the resulting plume has more distance to
Height elevation is finalized based on
mix with fresh air prior to contacting the
general arrangement drawing.
ground.

0.23 for Day [RefError: Reference

Solar Radiation from sun day and night source not found]
Radiation conditions
0.00 for Night

Release
Direction of Release Horizontal
Orientation

Time taken to deplete inventory or

1800 seconds whichever is earlier.
Release Typical maximum cap for release
Duration of Relief or leak event
Duration duration is 30 minutes based on
Purple Book [Ref Error: Reference
source not found].

Initial release rate calculated by the source term models have been used for modeling purpose
in most case except in case of release scenarios at discharge of pump or blower or equipment
where release rates have been limited to 1.5 times the flow capacity.

Flash Fire

When a large amount of flammable vaporizing liquid or gas is rapidly released, a vapor cloud
forms and disperses with the surrounding air. If this cloud is ignited before the cloud is diluted
below its lower flammability limit (LEL), a VCE or flash fire will occur. Various parameters
influence whether delayed ignition of cloud will result in flash fire or VCE.
A flash fire is the nonexplosive combustion of a vapor cloud resulting from a release of
flammable material into the open air. Flash fires initially combust and expand rapidly in all
directions. After the initial combustion, expansion is upward because of buoyancy. Flash fires
are short-duration events. The radiation intensity close to but not within an ignited, expanding
flash fire is high but the exposure time is very short.
The contour that defines the consequence zone for exposure to a flash fire is the flammable
concentration in the flammable cloud prior to its ignition that is equal to one half the Lower
Explosion Limit (1/2 LEL) to account for the cloud expansion during combustion. A person within
the ½ LEL contour is adversely impacted whereas the person outside is not. It is highlighted that
pockets of flammable vapor/air may actually be ignitable at distances greater that a predicted
LEL contour due to puffs of flammable concentration occurring outside of the LEL contour. Such
ignition may not flash back to source. For all flammable materials, flash fire results have been
determined.

Vapor Cloud Explosion

Delayed ignition of vapor cloud in congested and confined areas will result in blast effects due to
constraints in expansion of gas and acceleration of combustion reaction due to turbulence
arising from obstacles. The extent of injury to people & damage to property or environment
depends on the gas cloud size, explosive mass in the gas cloud and the degree of
confinement/congestion.
Explosion modeling is conducted using TNT Explosion methodology with explosion efficiency of
10 percent. Damage due to explosion is a function of explosion pressure and impulse. High
explosives produce a pressure wave that may have a very high explosion pressure but a very
short impulse whereas vapor cloud explosions exhibit low maximum explosion pressure but very
high impulse.
The significance of the end points is presented in the Table 2.
Table 2 Damage estimates for common structures based on overpressure*

Over pressure Damage

490 mbar Nearly complete destruction of houses

210 mbar Concrete or cinder block walls, not reinforced, shattered

Large and small windows usually shattered; occasional damage

30 mbar
to window frames
* Understanding Explosion [RefError: Reference source not found]

Pool Fire

A pool formed from the release of flammable liquid will initially spread and absorb heat from
surroundings and substrate on which pool is spreading causing pool to evaporate from the pool
surface. The geometry of the pool is determined by the dikes or kerb near the release source
but an unconstrained pool in an open, flat area is possible in case dikes are not provided or
quantity spilled is not enough to completely fill the diked area. Pool fires tend to be localized in
effect and are mainly of concern in establishing the potential for domino effects and employee
safety zones, rather than for community risk. The primary effects of such fires are due to
thermal radiation.
If the material is liquid, stored at a temperature below its normal boiling point, the liquid will
collect in a pool. If the liquid is stored under pressure above its normal boiling point, then a
fraction of the liquid will flash into vapor, with unflashed liquid remaining to form a pool in the
vicinity of the release. The ignition can occur via the vapor cloud (for flashing liquids), with the
flame traveling upwind via the vapor to ignite the liquid pool. For liquids stored below the normal
boiling point without flashing, the ignition can still occur via the flammable vapor from the
evaporating liquid. Maximum pool size is limited to a pool diameter of 50 m to account for
trenches, drainage and obstructions in the process area.

Jet Fire

Jet fire is a directional turbulent flame resulting from the combustion of continuous release of
flammable gas at high pressure. Jet fires tend to be localized in effect and are mainly of concern
in establishing the potential for domino effects and employee safety zones, rather than for
community risk. The primary effects of such fires are due to thermal radiation. Jet fire results
were documented for two phase releases.
The significance of radiation endpoints are shown in Table 3 below.
Table 3 Damage effects of Thermal Radiation*

Thermal Radiation Damage

kW/m2

4 Sufficient to cause pain to personnel if unable to reach cover

within 20 seconds; blistering of skin is likely

12.5 Minimum energy required for melting of plastic tubing and ignition
of wood

37.5 Sufficient to cause damage to equipment

BLEVE

A boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) occurs when there is a sudden loss of
containment of a pressure vessel containing a superheated liquid or liquefied gas. The primary
cause is usually an external flame impinging on the shell of a vessel above the liquid level,
weakening the container and leading to sudden shell rupture. A pressure relief valve does not
protect against this mode of failure, since the shell failure is likely to occur at a pressure below
the set pressure of the relief system. It should be noted, however, that a BLEVE can occur due
to any mechanism that results in the sudden failure of containment, including impact by an
object, corrosion, manufacturing defects, internal overheating, etc. The sudden containment
failure allows the superheated liquid to flash, typically increasing its volume significantly which is
sufficient enough to generate a pressure wave and fragments.
If the released liquid is flammable, a fireball may result. Fire balls are short duration fires (< 30
sec). BLEVE event is modelled for LNG storage vessel. Fireball due to release from large
diameter piping was also determined. It is important to understand that projectiles due to BLEVE
blast contribute to domino effects to nearby vessels.

Toxic Dispersion

When a large amount of toxic vaporizing liquid or gas is rapidly released, a vapor cloud forms
and disperses with the surrounding air leading to acute exposure of personnel to toxic cloud
resulting in human health effects. Some releases involve more than one component and the
cumulative effects of simultaneous exposure are not well understood. In case of release
mixtures containing more than one toxic component, effect distance was taken based on
conservative criteria.
Emergency Response Planning Guidelines (ERPG) valves are intended to provide estimates of
concentration ranges where one might reasonably anticipate observing adverse effects as a
consequence of exposure to the specific substance. These values are being established by the
American Industrial Hygienists Association and their definitions, including the effects are
provided below in Table 4 and Table 5 respectively.
Table 4 ERPG Definition

The maximum airborne concentration below which it is believed that nearly all

ERPG-1 Individuals could be exposed for up to one hour without experiencing other
than mild transient adverse health effects or perceiving a clearly defined
objectionable odour. (nuisance level)

The maximum airborne concentration below which it is believed that nearly all

Individuals could be exposed to for up to one hour with experiencing or

ERPG-2 developing irreversible or other serious health effects or symptoms that could
impair their abilities to take protective action. (Exposure results in non-life
threatening, irreversible health effects and individuals are able to take
protective action. An evacuation criterion)

The maximum airborne concentration below which it is believed that nearly all
ERPG-3
individuals could be exposed for up to 1 hour without experiencing or
developing life threatening health effects. (Exposure can cause serious health
effects and may be life-threatening. An injury criterion)
To supplement the definitions above, here is a description of the human health effects for each
category:
Table 5ERPG Effects Definition

Exposure
Effects
Levels

Death or life-threatening effects immediately or soon after exposure.

Above ERPG-3

Disability effects -- Evacuation needed

External assistance is needed because
Below ERPG-3,  persons are disabled by exposure and cannot take actions
but above necessary to protect themselves or escape.
ERPG-2
 exposed persons acquire an illness or condition with permanent or
long lasting effects, including effects on the outcome of an existing or
subsequent pregnancy

Discomfort effects
Exposed persons might request assistance, but their condition, though
Below ERPG-2 unpleasant and possibly amenable to symptomatic relief, does not
but above
* impair escape
ERPG-1
* produce disablement
* result in permanent or long-lasting effects.

Detectability effects
Exposed persons might complain, inquire, or express anxiety, but
Below ERPG-1 exposure, if perceived at all, will be perceived only by smell, taste, or
slight odor, or by sensations (mild sensory irritation) that do not persist
after exposure ceases. There are no direct effects of exposure on health.

Asphyxiant Dispersion

When a large amount of asphyxiant vaporizing liquid or gas is rapidly released, a vapor cloud
forms and disperses with the surrounding air leading to acute exposure of personnel to
asphyxiant cloud resulting in human health effects. These scenarios lead to a situation where
Oxygen in the surrounding environment reduces below tolerable limits of human beings, thereby
causing hazard to working personnel around the area of the leak. The dispersion is done with
typical toxic averaging time of 600 seconds.
Asphyxiant hazard concentration for the scenarios involving release of inert materials such as
nitrogen and argon is where one might reasonably asphyxiate / die due to oxygen deficiency as
a consequence of exposure to the specific substance. The hazardous / lethal concentration
level for oxygen deficiency are referred from EIGA [Ref 3].
The Oxygen Deficiency concentration limits are as follows-
 Below 18%  Hazardous (symptoms of oxygen deficiency)
 Below 10%  Lethal
These O2 concentrations are further used to estimate the hazardous / lethal concentration of
the specific inert substance, meaning concentration of these inerts above below mentioned
levels would lead to hazardous asphyxiation.
These concentration levels are illustrated in a table below -
Table 6 Asphyxiation hazard criteria

Concentration Estimated Concentration

Material Effects
Notation Level (ppm)

Hazard Conc. 817391 Hazardous Situation

Nitrogen
Lethal Conc. 904545 Lethality

Oxygen Enrichment Flammable Dispersion

When a large amount of vaporizing liquid or gas oxygen is rapidly released, a vapor cloud forms
and disperses with the surrounding air leading to oxygen enrichment. The Fire Chemistry
changes as the air gets oxygen enriched. Materials ignite more easily in an oxygen enriched
atmosphere. This oxygen enriched cloud has the potential to ignite at certain concentration level
provided an ignition source and fuel available.
This oxygen enrichment flammable hazard concentration is referred from EIGA [Ref 3] and
provided in Table 7.
Table 7 Oxygen enrichment flammable hazard criteria

Concentration Concentration
Effects
Notation Level (ppm)

Hazard Conc. 250000 There is significantly lower risk of harm in clouds

containing up to 25% O2. At anticipated level above 25%
O2 it may be possible by means of risk assessments to
determine that such atmospheres can be safely entered
Concentration Concentration
Effects
Notation Level (ppm)

with appropriate control: e.g. there is no permitted smoking

in an area where venting is possible, or hot work is
controlled by permit because of the risks of venting.

There is an anticipated lethal risk from atmospheres with

Lethal Conc. 350000
concentrations of 35% O2 and higher.