Environmental Science Practical 1

Ms M. Mkhathini
5 March 2024
Group 6
Members:
NAMES STUDENT NUMBER CONTRIBUTION
SAMUKELO ISAAC 240918053 part 2
MKHONZA
CHABALALA POLLEN 240250230 Introduction(part1),
importance of modelling
challenges and approaches
MUSANE RIPFUMELO 240181719 Research .Cover page,
typing(part1). editing
SITHOLE ANELE 240658728 Accuracy and input data
MKATSHWA SCELO ALLY 240600428 Introduction and research
CHAVALALA NHLAWULEKO 240236254 Introduction(part2)
NOGO SIVIWE 222348577 Referencing and research
KUNUTU MASHADI 230787428 Sub-topics
How can mathematical models help predict impact of climate change on regional water
resources, and what factors must be considered when developing and utilising these models
for effective water strategies?

Introduction

Mathematical modelling refers to a strive to learn some form of reality problems in

mathematical terms, and its stages involve s formulation, solution, interpretation and
validation. The impact of climate change on water resources is one is one of the most
significant affairs to address in order to expand adaptation and persistence in programs.

1. Importance of modelling

Modelling is becoming increasingly important in water resources and river basin management, as it
can store, analyse, and display numerical and spatial data. Expert, researchers, and users worldwide
apply models to address water related challenges

2. The scale of analysis

River basins are the primary unit of analysis for water management. Modelling at this scale provides
essential support for policy and decision makers. Complex eco-agricultural systems require an
integrated modelling approach.

3. Challenges and approaches

Mathematical models can be linked or combined with GIS platforms. Model selection
depends on objectives, data availability, model resilience, and expertise. Examples include
on- farm irrigation, network operation, eco-agricultural interventions.
4. Uncertainty

In order to investigate an array of potential futures and evaluate he efficacy of diverse water
management approaches under varying circumstances, models should be able to stimulate
many scenarios. To find possible risks and possibilities, stakeholders should take account
various scenarios?

5. Stakeholder’s engagement

Including stakeholders in the model building process can assist guarantee that the model
considers their needs, goals and that the final product accurately represents their requirements
and preferences. Planning decisions together which can result in better water management.

6. Accuracy of input data

Mathematics can help to quantity and predict the effects of external and natural
anthropogenic perturbation on the climate system. Validation of mathematical models is a
crucial step in ensuring accuracy and reliability, so it’s best to compare the models and check
which one is more accurate and reliable than the other, showing how good it can perform.
The accuracy depend on the models at its best, if the effects of physical laws are computable
and are the same as the model’s axioms then the accuracy might be good but when it’s the
opposite, it may be inaccurate.

Assumptions and estimations should be made in almost every step that is taken in the process
because data is often unavailable or inaccurate. These are several decisions that have been
made before performing a well-structured validation comparison. In the way the accuracy can
be predictable and reliable.

PART 2

The scientific method is a problem solving approach and its steps include :
Kumar, G., Sharma, A., Kumar, D., Kumar, V. and Kumar, R., 2024, January. An exploratory
study on water resources management using mathematical modelling. In AIP Conference
Proceedings (Vol. 2962, No. 1). AIP Publishing.

Kumar (n.d.) An exploratory study on water resources management using mathematical

modelling. [Online].

Iqbal, M.M., Shoaib, M., Agwanda, P. and Lee, J.L., 2018. Modeling approach for water-
quality management to control pollution concentration: A case study of Ravi River, Punjab,
Pakistan. Water, 10(8), p.1068.