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2021 LI FixedIncome
2021 LI FixedIncome
2021 LI FixedIncome
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d. describe how legal, regulatory, and tax considerations affect the issuance
and trading fixed-income securities;
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LOS b
⇒ Bond Indenture
-describe
4/ Credit Enhancements - reduce the credit risk of a bond Pg-9
a) Internal subordination or credit tranching junior – last paid
overcollateralization senior 2
- posting more collateral senior 1
than is needed ‘waterfall structure’
reserve accounts or reserve funds
• cash reserve fund - a deposit of cash that can be used
➁
to absorb losses
• excess spread account e.g. 8% in, 6.5% out
b) External Bank guarantee and surety bonds – up to some percentage
(Bank) (Insurance Co.)
called the
• Letter of credit - a credit line to reimburse ‘penal sum’
any cash flow shortfalls from the assets
backing the issue
Pg-10
creditworthiness
5/ Covenants - legally enforceable rules
• Affirmative - typically administrative in nature
- what issuers are required to do
e.g./ What the issuer will do with the ➁proceeds, promise to comply with all
laws and regulations, maintain its current line of business, insure/maintain its
assets, pay taxes
• Negative - what an issuer will not do
- purpose is to protect bondholders
• Restriction on debt → max debt ratios, min. Interest Coverage Ratios
• Negative pledges → no debt senior to this issue
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LOS d
→ Legal/Regulatory Considerations/
-describe
- global bonds → bonds issued simultaneously in the Eurobond
Pg-13
market and in at least one domestic market
- ensures sufficient demand for large bond issues
- domestic, foreign, Eurobond & global bonds are subject to different legal,
regulatory & tax requirements
- the market rate that affects a bond’s price is the currency in which the
bond is denominated ➁
⇒ Tax Considerations/
· Interest - typically taxed as ordinary income (unless tax-exempt)
· Capital gains/losses - long-term vs. short-term
LOS e
⇒ Bullet, Fully-amortizing, Partially amortizing bonds
-describe
Pg-14
- most common
- almost all gov’t
& corporate bonds
➁
(N = 5, PV = -1000, FV = 0, I/Y = 6) CPT PMT → 237.3964
- MBS → each
payment is fixed
‘interest + principal’
until paid in full
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N = 5, I/Y = 6, PV = -1000,
FV = 200
CPT PMT = 201.917
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LOS e
⇒ Coupon payment structure/
-describe
· Deferred coupon bonds (split coupon bonds) - no coupon Pg-18
payments for the first few years followed by higher coupon
than otherwise
- common in project financing (delay payments until the project
is complete)
· Index-Linked bonds - coupons are linked to some index
(e.g. inflation-linked bonds tied to CPI)
➁
with
without
Inf. Inf.
Inf.
real real real
real rate nominal nominal rate
decreases rate increases
· inflation adjustment can be made to either coupon
payments or principal
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LOS f
⇒ Bonds with contingency provisions/
-describe
1/ Callable Bonds Pg-21
- make whole call → PV of 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐭. + 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐥 - results in a
𝐠𝐨𝐯 ! 𝐭 𝐘𝐓𝐌 + 𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 call price > current
market price
- calls can be: American - continuously callable
European - only on call date (1 date)
Bermuda - only on call➁dates after the lockout period
- usually on coupon dates
2/ Putable bonds - bondholder can put bond back to issuer on certain dates
@ specific prices (value for bondholder)
- lower yield or higher prices
- protects against a rise in rates
→ one-time put bonds - European
→ multiple put bonds - Bermuda
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j. describe repurchase agreements (repos) and the risks associated with them.
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LOS a
⇒ Classification of Fixed-Income Markets/ -describe
6/ by Geography · Domestic legal, regulatory and tax Pg-3
· Foreign issues of ‘issued-in’ country
· Eurobond - issued internationally
also by · developed market
· emerging market local currency
foreign currency
⇒ Primary bond markets/ - issuers initially sell bonds to investors LOS c
-describe
· Public Offerings
a) underwritten offerings (firm commitment offering)
Phases: 1. Issuer determines funding need
buys from
spread 2. Select underwriter – typically an investment bank
↓
= revenue (or syndicate)
lead
sells to syndicated
dealers/investors offering
LOS c
⇒ Primary bond markets/ -describe
· Public Offerings a) underwritten offerings Pg-4
3. Investment bank structures the offering
· bond terms · regulatory filings · circulators/prospectus
· selects trustee
4. Announcement date end of subscription period
- underwriter gauges demand + price
- marketing efforts
- anchors (large inst. investors)
- grey market (forward mkt.)
· pricing date
- last day to commit
- final terms solidified
· next day = offering
5. Issuing phase ⇒ money changes hands
6. Closing date ⇒ about 14 days from issue date
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LOS c, d
⇒ Secondary bond markets/
-describe
· Settlement – bonds passed to buyer and payment made Pg-7
· gov’t/quasi-gov’t ➞ cash or T +1
· corporate ➞ T + 2 or T + 3, maybe even T + 7
(some jurisdictions)
⇒ Sovereign bonds/
LOS e
- usually called Treasuries (even though they
-describe
have different names by country)
- name may also denote original maturity
e.g. U.S. Treasury - bill (T-Bill) <1 yr. (zero coupon)
- Note (T-Note) 1 yr. ≤ T-Note < 10 yrs.
coupon –
bearing - Bond (T-Bond) >10 yrs.
- most recently issued ➞ ‘on the run’ or benchmark issue
- most active in secondary market
- as sovereigns age, they trade less frequency
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⇒ Non-Sovereign/Quasi-government/Supranational/ LOS f
-describe
· Non-Sovereign: state, province, municipality
Pg-9
- not guaranteed by the national government
schools
- typically issued to finance public projects roads
hospitals
- ranging tax treatment depending on type & jurisdiction
- credit ratings differ widely, but generally high
- higher yield/lower price than comparable sovereigns
· Quasi-government: agency bonds
- rarely guaranteed by the sovereign (implied however)
- repaid from the cash flows of the entity
- typically high credit rating
· Supranational: supranational bonds ➞ highly rated
- some may be used as a benchmark for non-liquid
sovereign bonds
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prime paper ➞ IG
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LOS h
⇒ Structured Financial Instruments/
-describe
1/ Capital protected Instruments Pg-14
➞ buy a zero coupon bond + call options
equity
discount security on an index
↓ commodity
pays principal + option payoff
2/ Yield enhancement instruments e.g./ credit-linked note
- a bond that pays regular coupons but whose principal value depends on
specific credit events ratings downgrade
default of an underlying asset
· no credit event ➞ pays par
· credit event ➞ pays a recovery rate
Note: protects the issuer
- pays higher coupon in return, plus issued at a discount
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b. identify the relationships among a bond’s price, coupon rate, maturity, and
market discount rate (yield-to-maturity);
c. define spot rates and calculate the price of a bond using spot rates;
d. describe and calculate the flat price, accrued interest, and the full price of a
bond;
g. calculate and interpret yield measures for fixed-rate bonds and floating-rate
notes;
i. define and compare the spot curve, yield curve on coupon bonds, par curve,
and forward curve;
j. define forward rates and calculate spot rates from forward rates, forward
rates from spot rates, and the price of a bond using forward rates;
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4.95% ↑ as r ↓ 1%
4.60% ↓ as r ↑ 1%
convexity effect
all rise all drop
coupon effect
longer term bonds = higher price vol. lower coupon = higher note: maturity effect
price vol. does not hold for low
coupon, LT-bonds @
maturity effect a discount
LOS a, b
⇒ Bond Prices/ -calculate
-identify
Pg-6
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𝐭
= 𝐏𝐕 × (𝟏 + 𝐫) 2𝐓
-
T = 181 T= 184 13 + 31 + 30 + 31
+ 30 + 31 + 15 = 181
𝐭 = 𝟏𝟑 + 𝟑𝟏 + 𝟑𝟎 + 𝟏𝟒 = 𝟖𝟖 N = 18 𝑷𝑽𝒇𝒖𝒍𝒍
= 𝟏𝟎𝟏. 𝟒𝟒𝟕𝟗 Aug. 15 - Feb. 15
PMT = 2.5 × (𝟏. 𝟎𝟐𝟒) 𝟖𝟖0𝟏𝟖𝟏 16 + 30 + 31 + 30
𝐭+ = 𝟖𝟖+
𝐓 𝟏𝟖𝟏 I/Y = 2.4 = 𝟏𝟎𝟐. 𝟔𝟐𝟒𝟑𝟐𝟑 + 31 + 31 + 15 = 184
FV = 100
𝐀𝐈 = 𝟖𝟖+𝟏𝟖𝟏 × 𝟐. 𝟓 CPT PV = 101.4479 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭 = 𝟏𝟎𝟐. 𝟔𝟐𝟒𝟑𝟐𝟑
= 𝟏. 𝟐𝟏𝟓𝟒𝟕 − 𝟏. 𝟐𝟏𝟓𝟒𝟕
= 𝟏𝟎𝟏. 𝟒𝟎𝟖𝟖𝟓𝟑
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LOS e
⇒ Prices and Yields/
-describe
· Matrix Pricing - for fixed rate bonds without an active market, Pg-11
or not yet issued ➞ ∴ no market price to calculate YTM
- estimate PV and r based on prices of more frequently traded
comparable bonds (i.e. similar tenor, coupons, credit quality)
LOS e
⇒ Prices and Yields/ -describe
e.g./ 3yr., 4% semi corporate Pg-12
2% 3% 4% 5% coupon
98.50 102.25 3.8035%
2
term 3.786% 3.821%
to 3 3yrs.
y 𝟑. 𝟖𝟎𝟑𝟓 + 𝟏0𝟑 (𝟒. 𝟏𝟖𝟖𝟓% − 𝟑. 𝟖𝟎𝟑𝟓%)
maturit
4 = 𝟑. 𝟗𝟑𝟏𝟖𝟑̇
90.25 99.125 4.1885%
5 4.181% 4.196% Step #5: Find PV
(N = 6, I/Y = 𝟑. 𝟗𝟑𝟏𝟖𝟑̇0𝟐 , 𝐅𝐕 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎,
Note: if the bond were floating instead: 𝐏𝐌𝐓 = 𝟐)
spread = 3.93183 - YTM on gov’t 3yr-semi CPT PV = 100.191
if gov’t YTM = 2.75%
spread = 118.183 bps
⇒ usually a different yield spread for each maturity & credit rating
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· yield spread over the reference rate ➞ quoted margin ➞ credit related
· required margin ➞ spread required by investors to ➞ may even be
reflect changes in credit quality negative (sub-Libor)
- changes usually come from changes in the issuer’s credit risk
∴ FRN with quoted margin = 50 bps with no changes in credit
risk, required margin = 50bps
premium between PMT dates for a
PMT PMT
PV change in the reference
-
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e.g./ 2 yr. FRN, Days 6-mos. Libor + 50bps, required spread = 40bps
1.25%
Index = .0125
QM = .005 N = 4
DM = .004 PMT = (𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕 (. 𝟎𝟏𝟐𝟓 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓) × 𝟏𝟎𝟎 . 𝟎𝟏𝟕𝟓
= = = . 𝟖𝟕𝟓
𝐦 𝟐 𝟐
I/Y = 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌 . 𝟎𝟏𝟐𝟓+ . 𝟎𝟎𝟒 . 𝟎𝟏𝟔𝟓
= = = . 𝟖𝟐𝟓%
𝐦 𝟐 𝟐
FV = 100
2%
N = 16 PMT = 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌 × 𝐟𝐯 = (. 𝟎𝟐+ . 𝟎𝟏𝟐𝟓) × 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = . 𝟖𝟏𝟐𝟓
FV = 100 𝐦 𝟒
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e.g./ 180-day BA, AOR = 4.38, 365-day yr., $10M periodicity 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐝
𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬6 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐝
𝐅𝐕 = 𝐏𝐕 n𝟏 + 𝐲𝐫. × 𝐀𝐎𝐑p
= $𝟏𝟎𝐌n 𝟏 + 𝟏𝟖𝟎6𝟑𝟔𝟓 × . 𝟎𝟒𝟑𝟖p = $𝟏𝟎, 𝟐𝟏𝟔, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
Note: 𝐅𝐕 = 𝐏𝐕(𝟏 + 𝐫)𝐧 ➞ compound interest
𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬6
𝐅𝐕 = 𝐏𝐕 n𝟏 + 𝐲𝐫. × 𝐑p ➞ simple interest (money market yields)
➞ Sell after 45 days when AOR = 4.17%
𝟏𝟎, 𝟐𝟏𝟔, 𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟑𝟔𝟓 𝟏𝟎. 𝟎𝟔𝟎𝟖𝟐𝟗 − 𝟏𝟎
𝐏𝐕 = = $𝟏𝟎, 𝟎𝟔𝟎, 𝟖𝟐𝟗 ⇒ implies AOR = V [
𝟏 + 𝟏𝟑𝟓6𝟑𝟔𝟓 × . 𝟎𝟒𝟏𝟕 𝟒𝟓 𝟏𝟎
= 𝟒. 𝟗𝟑𝟒%
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𝟏𝟎𝟎 − 𝟗𝟖. 𝟓𝟔
𝐀𝐃𝐑 = n𝟑𝟔𝟓6𝟗𝟎p V [ =. 𝟎𝟓𝟗𝟐𝟓 𝐯𝐬. 𝟓. 𝟗%
𝟗𝟖. 𝟓𝟔
BEY - bond equivalent yield ➞ AOR for 365d
maturity
· government bond spot curve ➞ YTMs for zero-coupon bonds for a
(a.k.a. zero or strip curve) full range of maturities
upward sloping ➞ normal ➞ longer maturities have higher YTMs
downward sloping ➞ inverted
- no coupon ➞ no reinvestment risk, but/ most bonds have coupons
∴ need a term structure for coupon paying bonds, but/ older bonds may have
different tax/liquidity status ∴ use on-the-run bonds, but/ there is limited
data for the full range of maturities ∴ interpolate between dates
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-
- gov’t bond yield to BEY (semi-annual basis)
curve, coupon bonds ⇒ Par Curve = sequence of YTMs such that each
- bond is priced at par
- - par rates are derived from spot rates
-
spots 𝑷𝑴𝑻 + 𝟏𝟎𝟎
- 𝟏𝟎𝟎 = PMT = 5.263%
1 yr. - 5.263% 𝟏. 𝟎𝟓𝟐𝟔𝟑
- 𝑷𝑴𝑻 𝑷𝑴𝑻 + 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝟏𝟎𝟎 = + PMT = 5.606
- 2 yr. - 5.616% 𝟏. 𝟎𝟓𝟐𝟔𝟑 (𝟏. 𝟎𝟓𝟔𝟏𝟔)𝟐
𝑷𝑴𝑻 𝑷𝑴𝑻 𝑷𝑴𝑻 + 𝟏𝟎𝟎 PMT
-
-
-
-
-
4 yr. - 7.008%
etc…
4 yr. = 4.18%
4.18%
semi-annual . 𝟎𝟒𝟏𝟖 𝟖
. 𝟎𝟑𝟔𝟓 𝟔 𝒇(𝟑, 𝟏) 𝟐
bond basis V𝟏 + [ = V𝟏 + [ V𝟏 + [
𝟐 𝟐 𝟐
𝟏2
(𝟏. 𝟎𝟐𝟎𝟗)𝟖 𝟐
{| } − 𝟏~ = 𝒇(𝟑, 𝟏) = . 𝟎𝟐𝟖𝟖𝟗𝟏𝟒𝟓𝟐 × 𝟐
(𝟏. 𝟎𝟏𝟖𝟐𝟓)𝟔
= . 𝟎𝟓𝟕𝟕𝟖𝟐𝟗
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LOS j
⇒ Maturity structure of interest rates/
-define
forward -compare
spot Pg-27
par par
spot
forward
- forward curve is a series of 1 yr. forward rates ➞ f(1,1), f(2,1), f(3,1), etc…
- forward rates are also referred to as break-even rate or no-arbitrage rates
LOS k
⇒ Yield Spreads
-compare
-calculate
microeconomic -interpret
factors Pg-28
in bps
- issuer and the bond itself
can affect credit risk
as well
macroeconomic
factors
- general economic growth,
business cycle, fiscal and
monetary policy
varies across financial markets
➞ fixed rate bonds often use gov’t benchmark security (usually the most
recently issued ‘on the run’ security) ⇒ G-spread
➞ floating ➞ typically an interbank rate (e.g. Libor)
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𝟔 𝟏𝟎𝟔
+ = 𝟏𝟎𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓
(𝟏+. 𝟎𝟐𝟏+. 𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟒𝟐𝟐) (𝟏+. 𝟎𝟑𝟔𝟑𝟓+. 𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟒𝟐𝟐)𝟐
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b. describe securitization, including the parties involved in the process and the
roles they play;
i. describe collateralized debt obligations, including their cash flows and risks.
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Benefits of Securitization
Securitization
Physical Pg-1
Bond
asset
Investors
General
Debenture
claim
Auto
pool Asset-Backed
Home Investors
of Security
assets
Credit Card
Receivables
Student Loans
credit sensitive
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Pg-2
buy a ⇒ originator
Customer Consumer Co.
product
⇒ may also be
flow, through
credit criteria makes a
(- fee) servicer
loan
(underwriting standards) cash · collecting
sells
· repossessing
loans
· liquidating
sell
securities Consumer Asset
Investor ⇒ special
(ABS) Trust (SPV)
interest purpose
+ cash vehicle
principal
Pg-3
Seller ⇒ originator of the loans (Consumer Co.)
Issuer/Trust ⇒ SPV (Consumer Asset Trust)
Servicer ⇒ Collections, etc. (Consumer Co.)
Others ⇒ Lawyers, Underwriters, Accountants, Rating Agencies, Trustees
Documents
Prospectus ⇒ ‘waterfall’ – priority and amounts of
payments
· service fees · admin. fees
· principal · interest
Purchase Agreement (Seller ➞ SPV)
Waterfall Structure
Servicing Agreement (Servicer & SPV)
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Bonds Issued
Pg-1
Asset1 Senior tranche
Asset2 $80M
Libor + 60 bps
Asset3
SPV
Assetn Mezzanine tranche
$15M credit
Principal Libor + 250 bps tranching
$100M
Equity tranche
$5M
Libor + 1000 bps
Pg-2
Assets Senior tranche (80%) – easy to sell
an ABS of an ABS
Mezzanine tranche (15%)
Senior tranche (65%)
- hard to sell
‘AAA’
Equity tranche (5%)
Mezzanine tranche (25%)
‘BB’
retained by originator
Equity tranche (10%)
or sold to hedge fund
‘C’
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e.g./ Pg-3
Bond Class Par Value
A1 $ 40M
no n A2 $ 30M each would have different
o r di natio
su b A3 $ 20M terms to maturity and yields
A4 $ 10M
Sequential – pay
- each bond class receives periodic interest
- However: principal is repaid as follows:
- all principal to A1 until paid in full
- next is A2 until paid in full, etc…
· Redistributes prepayment risk ⇒ Called ‘Time Trancing’
or
‘Prepayment Trancing’
e.g./ Pg-4
Bond Class Par Value
A1 $ 35M
A2 $ 28M
AAA time
A3 $ 15M
+ credit tranching
A4 $ 12M
BB B (subordinate) $ 7M
C C (subordinate) $ 3M
$100M
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Versus
Originator Co.
SPV sells securities
Balance Sheet Loans ⇒ lower
Cash … ⇒ higher rating
·
·
·
- loans leave Originator Co’s
Loans
Balance Sheet (legally segregated)
Conventional
Lender
Credit of Mortgage
Borrower + morg. insurance
perhaps
Loan-to-Value (LTV)
payments to Ratio = 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐞
lender · principal 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞
· interest
May include prepayments:
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-
· if repaid in full or if
· lockout period prepayment > some certain amt.
· penalty period = penalty
(usually X months interest)
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i Principal Pg-4
Interest-service fee
recourse non-recourse
- borrowers walk away
· all assets of the
borrower can be used
to make the lender
whole
Residential MBS
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Not all mortgages have the same rate or time left Pg-2
e.g. Mortgage Balance Weight Rate Time Left
1 $125k 22.12% 7.5% 275
2 85k 15.04% 7.2% 260
3 175k 30.97% 7% 290
4 110k 19.47% 7.8% 285
5 70k 12.39% 6.9% 270
$565k 100% 7.28% 279 months
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e.g.
Beg. Bal33 = $358,326,766 𝟏, 𝟖𝟒𝟏, 𝟑𝟒𝟕
𝐒𝐌𝐌𝟑𝟑 =
Sched. Prin.33 297,825 𝟑𝟓𝟖, 𝟑𝟐𝟔, 𝟕𝟔𝟔 − 𝟐𝟗𝟕, 𝟖𝟐𝟓
Prepay33 1,841,347 = . 𝟓𝟏𝟒𝟑%
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t=0 30
Pg-6
Cash Flow Construction
if t < 30, then CPR = 6% q𝐭6𝟑𝟎r
t ≥ 30, then CPR = 6%
∴ for month 5, CPR = .06n𝟓6𝟑𝟎p = .01 or 1% annual
and CPR = 1 - (1 – SMM)12
(𝟏 − 𝐒𝐌𝐌)𝟏𝟐 = 𝟏 − 𝐂𝐏𝐑
𝟏
𝟏 − 𝐒𝐌𝐌 = (𝟏 − 𝐂𝐏𝐑) 2𝟏𝟐 = 𝟏 − (𝟏 − . 𝟎𝟏)
𝟏2
𝟏𝟐
𝟏
𝐒𝐌𝐌 = 𝟏 − (𝟏 − 𝐂𝐏𝐑) 2𝟏𝟐
− . 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟖𝟑𝟕
for month 5, PSA = 165
Note: Applied to CPR, not SMM
CPR = .06 n𝟓6𝟑𝟎p = .01
165 PSA = 1.65(.01) = .0165
𝟏2 𝟏2
𝐒𝐌𝐌𝟓 = 𝟏 − (𝟏 −. 𝟎𝟏𝟓𝟓) 𝟏𝟐 = 𝟏 − ( . 𝟗𝟖𝟑𝟓) 𝟏𝟐 = . 𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟑𝟖𝟔
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e.g. $400M, 7.5% Pass-through, WAC of 8.125%, WAM = 357 months Pg-7
= . 𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟏𝟎𝟔
Pg-8
Weighted Average Life
𝐓
𝐭 × 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 @ 𝐭
𝐀𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐋𝐢𝐟𝐞 = ˆ
𝟏𝟐 × 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐩𝐚𝐥
𝐢<𝟏
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- assumptions of an
upper & lower PSA Month @90 PSA @300 PSA Min. Pr. PMT
1 508,169 1,075,391 508,169
lower PSA – 90 2 569,843 1,279,412 569,843
3· 631,377 1,482,194 631,377
initial PAC collar/bond
· · ·
· · · ·
· · · ·
· · · ·
· · · ·
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𝟕, 𝟐𝟑𝟕, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
IFL floor = 0%, FL cap rate = = 𝟏𝟎% 9.5%
𝟕𝟐, 𝟑𝟕𝟓, 𝟎𝟎𝟎
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Commercial MBS
· apt. buildings
· office prop. non-recourse loans
· malls ∴ credit analysis involves
· industrial parks analysis of cash flows
etc…
on a loan-by-loan basis
Pg-2
⇒ if DSC & LTV ratios are not sufficient for a rating, subordination is used
⇒ rating agencies will require sequential retirement
∴ losses from defaults will be charged against lowest
priority tranche
(first loss piece, equity tranche, residual tranche)
Call Protection ⇒ at loan level
1) prepayment lockout 2 - 5 yrs.
2) defeasance ⇒ borrower purchases securities as
collateral to cover remaining principal balance + an
amount to substitute for what the yield would have been
(Defeasance premium)
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Pg-2
⇒ all ALB Securities have some form of credit enhancement
A - senior
⇒ Credit tranching
B - mezzanine
C - equity (subordinate)
⇒ Reserve Account $5M on $100M
⇒ Overcollateralization $100M issued against $105M
⇒ Excess Interest - 8.5% - 1% = 7.5% but pays 6.75%
⇒
WAC – servicing .75% excess
spread
Visa/MC/Amex Pg-1
SPV Securities
Sears/Target
t = 0 t*
· any principal payments received are retained by the trustee and re-
invested in additional receivables to maintain the size of the pool
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Pg-2
Payment Structure:
① Pass-through ⇒ principal paid to security holders on a pro-rata basis
② Controlled Amortization ⇒ PAC structure
③ Bullet payment ⇒ entire amount of FV
Gross Portfolio yield – charge offs = Net Portfolio yield
(finance charges + fees) (bad debts)
Early Amortization Triggers
⇒ 3 month average excess spread ≤ 0 - the AAA first
- no more reinvestment AA next
etc…
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fixed-rate Pg-2
bonds
SPV floating rate payments
some floating (one or more tranches)
rate loans
interest rate
swaps (fixed-for floating)
e.g. $100M CDO, fixed @ 11%, mgmt. fee = $640k
t = 0 t = 1 yr. 5 yr. …. n
-
assets sold
securities retired
reinvestment period
(revolving) – proceeds are reinvested
capture CDO
spread
cash CDO remove assets synthetic CDO
from sponsor BS.
Arbitrage* Balance* Arbitrage* Balance*
Driven Sheet Driven Driven Sheet Driven
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d. define key rate duration and describe the use of key rate durations in
measuring the sensitivity of bonds to changes in the shape of benchmark
yield curve;
e. explain how a bond’s maturity, coupon, and yield level affect its interest rate
risk;
g. calculate and interpret the money duration of a bond and price value of a
basis point (PVBP);
j. describe how the term structure of yield volatility affects the interest rate
risk of a bond;
k. describe the relationships among a bond’s holding period return, its duration,
and the investment horizon;
𝟖 𝟖 𝟏𝟎𝟖
(PV) 𝟖𝟓. 𝟓𝟎𝟑𝟎𝟕𝟓 = + + ⋯+ r = 0.104
(𝟏 + 𝐫) (𝟏 + 𝐫)𝟐 (𝟏 + 𝐫)𝟏𝟎
8 8(1.104)9
Total coupons $80
Interest-on
-
t = 0 t = 1 t = 2 t = 10 interest 49.970678
Principal 100
8(1.104)8
229.970678
8
85.503075 = (1.104)10
129.970678
Pg-2
YTM assumes 1) held to maturity
2) No default
3) Coupons re-invested at same rate of interest
Now assume same bond ⇒ But sold after 4-years
-
t = 0 t = 4 t = 10
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Pg-3
100 -
-
5 10
Now: Assume interest rates rise 100 bps (10.40% ⇒ 11.40%)
9 yrs.
8 11.4%
-
-
.
t = 0 t = 1 t = 10 .
.
.
(85.503075) .
.
136.380195 r = 10.7%
100
𝟐𝟑𝟔. 𝟑𝟖𝟎𝟏𝟗𝟓
𝟖𝟓. 𝟓𝟎𝟑𝟎𝟕𝟓 −
(𝟏 + 𝐫)𝟏𝟎
Now: Assume interest rates rise 100 bps (10.40% ⇒ 11.40%) Pg-4
Sold after 4 years FV of coupons at t = 4 37.899724 (+)
PV of 6-yr. bond at t = 4 85.780408 (-)
𝟏𝟐𝟑. 𝟔𝟖𝟎𝟏𝟑𝟐
𝟖𝟓. 𝟓𝟎𝟑𝟎𝟕𝟓 = = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟗𝟔𝟕
(𝟏 + 𝐫)𝟒
89.668770 – 85.780408 = 3.888362
Capital loss
r = 10.10% r = 0.1117
Duration ⇒ measures the sensitivity of the bond’s full price to changes in Pg-1
the bond’s own yield or, more generally, changes in the
benchmark rate
➞
⇒ represents approx. amount of time a bond would have to be
PV held for the market discount rate to be realized
e.g. 10-yr. 8% annual @ 85.503075, YTM = 10.4%
Duration = 7.0029 ⇒ if rates ↑ (+)𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟
r ➞ 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐨𝐧
(−) 𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐬
= ∅ 𝐢𝐟 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝟕. 𝟎𝟎𝟐𝟗 𝐲𝐫𝐬.
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annualized Pg-4
modified duration/ e.g./ (AnnModDur)
𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫 𝟕. 𝟎𝟎𝟐𝟗
𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 = = 𝟔. 𝟑𝟒𝟑𝟐
𝟏+𝐫 𝟏. 𝟏𝟎𝟒
interpretation/ - provides an estimate of the percentage
price change for a bond given a change in its YTM (linear estimate)
➞
%𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ − 𝐀𝐧𝐧𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝 annual yield
e.g./ if r = 11.4% instead of 10.4%
%𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ −𝟔. 𝟑𝟒𝟑𝟐 × . 𝟎𝟏𝟎𝟎 = − 𝟔. 𝟑𝟒𝟑𝟐% requires
a
r = 9.4% instead of 10.4%
convexity
%𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ −𝟔. 𝟑𝟒𝟑𝟐 × 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟎𝟎 = − 𝟔. 𝟑𝟒𝟑𝟐% adjustment
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𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫 Pg-5
So…if MacDur is known, 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 =
(𝟏 + 𝐫)
- if MacDur is not known, we can approximate ModDur
(𝐏𝐕/ ) − (𝐏𝐕= ) 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐞
𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐱. 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 = =
𝟐 × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝 × 𝐏𝐕𝟎 𝐫𝐮𝐧
PV
Price-Yield Curve for small 𝚫yield
PV-
➞ ApproxModDur
PV0 =
AnnModDur
PVt -
ApproxMacDur
line tangent to
Price-Yield Curve = ApproxModDur
YTM
r + × (1+r)
𝟐. 𝟕𝟏𝟐𝟎𝟔𝟐𝟑
up 25 bps down 25 bps =
. 𝟒𝟐𝟕𝟓𝟏𝟓
10 N 10
8 PMT 8 ➞ = 𝟔. 𝟑𝟒𝟑𝟕𝟕
100 FV 100 vs.
10.65 I/Y 10.15
84.161819 + PV - 86.87388 6.3432
∴ if rates ↑ 50bps
%𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ −𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐱𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝 = − 𝟔. 𝟑𝟒𝟑𝟕𝟕 × . 𝟎𝟎𝟓 = −𝟑. 𝟏𝟕%
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credit
decreases 𝚫credit duration
spread ➞
or
benchmark
decreases 𝚫curve duration
yield
- also used for FRNs, MBS, DBPP (retirement obligations)
homeowner’s have a
call option
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𝚫curve is
based on
ModDur vs. EffDur
spot curve par curve
70
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Maturity
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r LOS d
-define
-describe
Pg-2
r -
Pg-3
𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫 𝟏+𝐫 𝟏 + 𝐫 + [𝐍 − (𝐂𝐜 − 𝐫)]
(𝐃𝐦𝐚𝐜 ) = Ž − ’ “• − q𝐭6𝐓r Dmac = f (c, r, N, t)
𝐫 𝐜 × [(𝟏 + 𝐫)𝐍 − 𝟏] + 𝐫
𝟏=𝐫
Discount
(N – 1) each date 𝐫 Perpetuity
Premium
➞
45°
time – to time – to
-
-
coupon
-
-
-
maturity maturity
payment
I𝐭0𝐓 = 𝟎K
dates 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 + 𝐅𝐕 D↑
⇒ low coupon bond ⇒ higher D (𝟏 + 𝐫)
∴ more interest rate risk
⇒ low YTM = higher D ➞ larger weights
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Example/ Pg-4
C PV YTM
A 10 yr. 58.075279
-
annual
B 20 yr. 10% 51.304203 20%
C 30 yr. 50.210636
-
⇒ +/- 1 bps
A B C
PV0 = 58.075279 PV0 = 51.304203
5.063
PVt = N = 10 PMT = 10 ➞ PVt = N = 20 PMT = 10
FV = 100 I/Y = 20.01 FV = 100 I/Y = 20.01
CPT PV = 58.047598 CPT PV = 51.277694
PV_ = N = 10 PMT = 10 PV_ = N = 20 PMT = 10
FV = 100 I/Y = 19.99 FV = 100 I/Y = 19.99
CPT PV = 58.102981 CPT PV = 51.330739
PV Pg-5
𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫
PV_ = 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫
(𝟏 + 𝐫)
~option-pricing
model
𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐱𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫
(𝐏𝐕/ ) − (𝐏𝐕= )
PV_
𝟐 × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝 × 𝐏𝐕𝟎
PV ➞
Non-Callable Bond
𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐃𝐮𝐫
= (𝐏𝐕/ ) − (𝐏𝐕= )
r 𝟐 × 𝚫𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐞 × 𝐏𝐕𝟎
Benchmark
Yield
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𝐁𝐕𝟏 𝐁𝐕 𝐁𝐕
𝐀𝐯𝐠. 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 = 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 | } + 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫
➞ | 𝟐 } + ⋯ + 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 | 𝐧 }
𝐁𝐩 𝐁𝐩 𝐁𝐩
𝐧
such that ˆ 𝐁𝐕𝐢 = 𝐁𝐩
𝐢<𝟏
Pg-2
e.g. A B C
𝐁𝐕
$25M $25M $50M 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 | 𝐢 } + ⋯ 𝐞𝐭𝐜
𝐁𝐩
Coupon 9% 11% 8%
TTM 6yrs. 8yrs. 12yrs. 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫
YTM 9.1% 9.38% 9.62% 𝐘𝐓𝐌
𝟏+ 𝐦
MV $24,886,343 $27,243,887 $44,306,787
MacDur 4.761 5.633 7.652
Pg-3
Money Duration ⇒ measure of price change in
currency terms
Money Dur. = Ann.ModDur × PV full
or
basis point value BVP = MoneyDur × 0.0001
Pg-4
e.g. FV = $10M 1. Calculate money duration
coupon = 4.5% Money Dur. = Ann.ModDur ×PVfull
PVfull = 99.65
𝟐. 𝟒𝟗𝟖𝟖
YTM = 5.2617% =” • × 𝟗𝟗. 𝟔𝟓 = 𝟐𝟒𝟐. 𝟔𝟐
𝟎. 𝟎𝟓𝟐𝟔𝟏𝟕
MacDur = 2.4988 𝟏+ 𝟐
➞
2. Calculate 𝚫PV for 1bp ↑ in YTM
full
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Price Pg-5
𝚫PV due to duration – primary effect
𝚫PV due to convexity – secondary effect ⇒ for
large 𝚫bps.
Convexity
YTM Adjustment
𝟏
%𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ (−𝐀𝐧𝐧. 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝) 𝟐
➞ 𝟐 𝐀𝐧𝐧. 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭𝐲 × (𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝) :
+ 8
Pg-6
e.g. 7.25% annual, YTM = 7.44% Recall: pg. 410, R54, Eq. (6)
Maturity Apr. 4/2029 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝐏𝐌𝐓 + 𝐅𝐕 𝐭
Settles Jun. 27/2014 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 = 8 + ⋯+ : × (𝟏 + 𝐫) 2𝐓
𝟏+𝐫 (𝟏 + 𝐫)𝐧
𝐭6 = 𝟖𝟑6
𝐓 𝟑𝟔𝟎
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𝟕. 𝟐𝟓 𝟏𝟎𝟕. 𝟐𝟓 𝟖𝟑
𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 = 8 + ⋯+ : × (𝟏. 𝟎𝟖𝟒𝟒) 2𝟑𝟔𝟎 = 𝟗𝟏. 𝟕𝟖𝟎𝟗𝟐𝟏
(𝟏. 𝟎𝟖𝟒𝟒) (𝟏. 𝟎𝟖𝟒𝟒)𝟏𝟓
Actual - 8.1794%
Est. - 8.155% 2.44 bps. off
Pg-8
Recall: MoneyDur. = 𝐀𝐧𝐧. 𝐃𝐮𝐫. × 𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥
𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ −𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲 𝐃𝐮𝐫. × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝
Well, money convexity results in,
𝟏
𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ (− 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲 𝐃𝐮𝐫. × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝) + 8 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲𝐂𝐨𝐧. × (𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝)𝟐 :
𝟐
first-order second-order effect
effect
𝐏𝐕/ + 𝐏𝐕= − (𝟐𝐏𝐕𝟎 )
➞ ⇐ 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐱. 𝐂𝐨𝐧. =
when bond’s cash
(𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝)𝟐 𝐏𝐕𝟎
flows do not change
𝐏𝐕/ + 𝐏𝐕= − (𝟐𝐏𝐕𝟎 )
when bond’s cash ⇐ 𝐄𝐟𝐟. 𝐂𝐨𝐧. =
(𝚫𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐞)𝟐 𝐏𝐕𝟎
flows change
both pos.
convexity
neg.
convexity callable
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𝟏
𝚫YTM %𝚫𝐏𝐕 𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 ≈ (−𝐀𝐧𝐧. 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 × 𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝) + X 𝐀𝐧𝐧. 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭𝐲 × (𝚫𝐲𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝)𝟐 Y
𝟐
≈ Duration + Convexity
25 bps
impact/basis point change
Benchmark
+ Spread
rate
Inflation ➞ Credit
Real Rate Liquidity
Duration Duration Duration Duration
d. distinguish between corporate issuer credit ratings and issue credit ratings
and describe the rating agency practice of “notching”;
h. evaluate the credit quality of a corporate bond issuer and a bond of that
issuer, given key financial ratios of the issuer and the industry;
i. describe factors that influence the level and volatility of yield spreads;
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Credit Risk
AAA A BB B- C/D
ƒ (credit quality, size of debt)
liquidity market price
Recall, spread ≠
default transaction price
benchmark
credit migration risk
(i.e. downgrades)
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Ratings
∴ 2 bonds with
Note: Ratings do not stay static over time equal ratings
Agencies can and have been wrong may have very
Ratings can’t incorporate unpredictable events different prices
Ratings tend to lag market pricing of risk
credit + industry
f quality fundamentals
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· EBITDA/Interest Exp.
higher = less risk
· EBIT/Int.exp.
in bond
prospectus
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Maturity
Premium Yield
Inflation Liquidity on
+ = Corporate
Premium Premium
Real Credit Bond
Rate (rf) Spread
gov’t corporate
Benchmark + Spread
Pg-2
Spread ⇒ affected by (issuer risk obviously, but also…)
A. Credit cycle
le)
B. Broader economic conditions
s.cyc
f(b u C. Financial market performance
D. Market making willingness (efficient OTC market)
E. Supply and demand
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Special Considerations
Pg-1
1. High Yield - below Baa3/BBB-
· greater focus on liquidity (cash flow analysis)
· debt structure ⇒ calculate debt/EBITDA ratio at each level
i.e. 𝟒𝟖𝟗𝟗6 “top-heavy”
Secured 4,899 𝟗𝟗𝟎 = 𝟒. 𝟗 𝐱
Sen. Unsec. 1,948 (𝟒𝟖𝟗𝟗 + 𝟏𝟗𝟒𝟖)6 capital structure
𝟗𝟗𝟎 = 𝟔. 𝟗 𝐱 • less borrowing
Sub. Deb. 764
capacity
7,611 𝟕𝟔𝟏𝟏6
𝟗𝟗𝟎 = 𝟕. 𝟕 𝐱
EBITDA 990
Parent look for
· debt
structural
· corporate structure
subs subordination
subs subs
· debt
· debt · debt
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1) ability to pay
look at
2) willingness to pay (sovereign immunity – investors
can’t force payment)
- considerations
· Political & economic profile ➞ income/capita
effectiveness ➞ growth prospects
stability ➞ population – growth, age
predictability ➞ G : C
➞ stability & sources of revenue
⇒ Revenue bonds
- issued for specific project financing
- debt service coverage ratio (DSCR)
(revenue for principal + interest)
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REVIEWS
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Defining Elements
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principal (zeros)
⇒ Contingency Provisions/ PMT ↑ as principal increases
- embedded options (capital indexed bonds)
call risk
① Callable bond - benefits issuer, holder
(higher coupon/lower price) reinvestment risk
· Make whole call = PV of 𝐢𝐧𝐭. + 𝐅𝐕
𝐠𝐨𝐯 ! 𝐭 𝐘𝐓𝐌
② Putable bond - benefits holder
+ 𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝
· American - always callable/putable
· European - 1 call/pull date
· Bermuda - many call/put dates
Pg-8
⇒ Contingency Provisions/ - review
③ Convertible Bonds/ into common shares (call option)
- benefits holder e.g./ $20/sh.
conversion price = $/share
= 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎6𝟐𝟎 = 𝟓𝟎 shares
ratio = FV/conv. pr.
value = Pt × ratio if Pt < $20
Premium = Bt - (Pt × ratio) - below parity
Parity = Bt (Pt × ratio) if Pt > $20
- above parity
- forced conversion - if Pt > $20 for a
specified # of days, company calls bonds
at a lower price
④ Warrants
- not an embedded option
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Pg-1
Markets/ - review
gov’t/gov’t related supranational
Issuer sov./non-sov.
financials
corporate quasi.
non-financials largest
structured products
(securitized) smallest
investment grade (Baa3 or BBB – or higher)
Credit Quality
non-investment grade – high yield, speculative
(more risk)
Maturity < 1 yr. – money market
at issuance
> 1 yr. - capital market
Currency – determines what county’s interest rate determines price
Domestic
Geography Foreign legal, regulatory, tax regime of ‘issued-in’ country
Eurobond
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Pg-3
· Pricing Day - last day to commit
- review
· Issuing Phase - sales made, money transfers
· Closing Date - about 14 days later
② Best efforts Offering - investment bank acts as agent/broker
- commission only
- no risk of ownership
Issuance/Auctions - typically Descending price auction for gov’t
price bonds
bids solicited then ranked
quality
e.g./ Sell $50M - each pay their bid until issue is sold
cuml. or/ Modified Dutch - each bidder pays the
.1560 12 12 same price at which the issue clears
.1565 8 20 · non-competitive bids - pay the clearing
.1570 16 36 or avg. $
.1575 18 50 all pay this price
only 14 filled
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target
central bank
funds rate
- 25bps
non-negotiable
· Certificates of Deposit
negotiable
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$ repurchase
A B A B $ < value of security
term
securities $ (1 + repo rate) repo margin
· 1 day
- overnight repo
· more - term repo
· to maturity - repo to maturity (of the security)
Reverse Repurchase Agreement/
- the above, seem from B’s perspective
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Spot Rates/ rather than using one r for all PMTs Pg-2
(Zn) - review
- also called 𝑷𝑴𝑻 𝑷𝑴𝑻 𝑷𝑴𝑻 + 𝑭𝑽
𝑷𝑽 = + + ⋯ +
zero rates (𝟏 + 𝒁𝟏 ) (𝟏 + 𝒁𝟐 )𝟐 (𝟏 + 𝒁𝒏 )𝒏
will be the
period 1 period 2 period n
no-arbitrage price
spot spot spot
Flat, Accrued & Full Price/ pricing bonds between coupon dates
n = # of PMTs
𝑷𝑽𝒇𝒖𝒍𝒍 = 𝑷𝑽𝒇𝒍𝒂𝒕 + 𝑨𝑰
PMT PMT PMT
q𝒕6𝑻 × 𝑷𝑴𝑻r X
-
𝟑𝟎6 PV
𝟑𝟔𝟎 − 𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞
(𝟏 + 𝐫) 𝐭6𝐓
𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥6
𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥 − 𝐠𝐨𝐯′𝐭
𝐭
∴ 𝐏𝐕𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥 = 𝐏𝐕(𝟏 + 𝐫) 2𝐓
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Pg-3
Matrix Pricing/ for fixed rate bonds w/ no/little
- review
secondary market (or not yet issued)
- use liquid comparables (credit quality)
e.g. 3 yr., 4%
Coupon
3% 4% 5%
2 X X - avg. YTM 2 yr.
TTM 3 X - 3 yr. Interpolate for
4
5 X X - avg. YTM 5 yr.3 yr. YTM
- then calculate PV
estimated 3 yr. YTM - 3 yr. Treasury rate = required yield spread
maturity
- will be a different yield spread for each
credit rating
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Pg-6
⇒ Embedded Options/ typically require an options pricing
- review
model (Level2)
PV = option adjusted price + value of embedded option
- call
+ put
⇒ Floating Rate Notes/ · coupon tied to short-term rate (Libor)
· paid ‘in arrears’ quarterly or
· reference rate + quoted margin (QM) semi-annual
(spread)
PV = 100 if QM = DM
· required rate ➞ discount margin (DM)
PV > 100 if QM > DM
𝚫 credit risk ⇒ 𝚫DM
PV < 100 if QM < DM
on a PMT
date
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Pg-7
PMT
⇒ Floating Rate Notes/ - review
(𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕 (𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐐𝐌) × 𝐅𝐕
𝐏𝐕 = 𝐦 + 𝐦 + …
𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌 𝟐
n𝟏 + 𝐦 p n𝟏 + p
𝐦
(1 + r) (1 + r)2
e.g./ 4-yr. quarterly, Libor + 125 bps @ 98
CPT I/Y = .009478
find DM if Libor = 2%
.009478 = 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐱 + 𝐃𝐌
N = 16 PV = -98 FV = 100
PMT = 𝟐 + 𝟏. 𝟐𝟓 𝟒
= 𝟑. 𝟐𝟓6𝟒 =. 𝟖𝟏𝟐𝟓 DM = 0.017912 or 179 bps
𝟒
⇒ Money Market Securities/ 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬6
discount basis 𝐏𝐕 = 𝐅𝐕 × n𝟏 − 𝐲𝐫. × 𝐃𝐑p
simple interest basis
add-on basis 𝐅𝐕
𝐏𝐕 =
𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬6
DR = discount rate AOR – add-on rate 𝟏+ 𝐲𝐫. × 𝐀𝐎𝐑
𝐅𝐕 Pg-8
⇒ Money Market Securities/
𝐏𝐕 = - review
𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬6 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬6
𝐏𝐕 = 𝐅𝐕 × n𝟏 − 𝐲𝐫. × 𝐃𝐑p 𝟏+ 𝐲𝐫. × 𝐀𝐎𝐑
rearrange/
𝐅𝐕 − 𝐏𝐕 𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬6
𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐅𝐕 − 𝐏𝐕 n𝟏 + 𝐲𝐫. × 𝐀𝐎𝐑p
𝐃𝐑 = 6𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬 V [
𝑭𝑽
(1 + r)
hence DR is understated 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐅𝐕 − 𝐏𝐕
𝐀𝐎𝐑 = 6𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬 × V [
𝐏𝐕
e.g./ 90-day, 360 DCC, DR = 5.76% ⇒ AOR = 5.925%
[w/ 365 DCC]
⇒ Term Structures/ a) gov’t bond spot curve (· YTM on zeros)
YTM (one issuer, same credit Q, same currency)
upward flat
inverted
· all else
constant
normal
TTM
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Pg-9
⇒ Term Structures/
- review
b) gov’t bond yield curve – coupon paying
Note: short end of curve ⇒ 1 mos., 3 mos., 1 yr. …
money mkt.
c) Par Curve – obtained from the - converted to BEY
spot curve
- each maturity is priced to par
d) Forward Curve 1y1y – 1 yr. from now, one yr. rate
2y1y – 2 yrs. from now, one yr. rate
= (1 + r2) 2
- a forward curve can be
2 yr. rate derived
taxation Pg-10
⇒ Yield Spreads/ Benchmark + Spread - review
liquidity
Fixed macro factors credit risk
Rate
· typically some gov’t yield (most recently issued)
𝟔 𝟏𝟎𝟔
𝐙 − 𝐬𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 = + = 𝟐. 𝟑𝟒𝟐𝟐%
(𝟏. 𝟎𝟐𝟏 + 𝐙)𝟏 (𝟏. 𝟎𝟑𝟔𝟓 + 𝐙)𝟐
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Asset-Backed Securities
Pg-1
-review
⇒ Benefits SPV will typically have higher credit rating than originator
(of securitization) source of funding greater credit availability
increased loan origination less concentration risk
bankruptcy remoteness
Mortgages higher risk-adjusted returns
Auto Loans
Pool ABS/MBS Investors
CC Receivables
of
Students Loans
Assets
have a claim
has a claim
originator
Customer Consumer Co.
sells loans
Investor SPV - separate legal entity
AAA Pg-2
senior tranche -review
mortgages SPV BB $80M
$100M mezzanine tranche credit
C 15M tranching
equity tranche
losses occur from 5M
the bottom up - all principal goes to senior tranche
first, then mezzanine, then equity
· equity tranche
- usually retained by originator
senior 65%
· mezzanine tranche ➞ pooled with other
mezzanine tranches mezzanine 25%
(an ABS of ABS) equity 10%
⇒ Sequential Pay ABS/
A1
senior A2 different - each receives interest, but all principal
A3 TTM & goes to A1, then A2, then A3
A4 YTM - time tranching – redistributes prepay. risk
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Rating Pg-3
A1 C absorbs all losses
-review
AAA A2 time tranching first
credit
A3 “first piece loss”
tranching
B B
C C
- if no credit risk, there would be no subordination (agency debt
- gov’t guarantee)
⇒ Residential MBS (RMBS)
- payments = principal + interest + prepayments
Loan-to-value Ratio = 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐠𝐚𝐠𝐞
PMT in partial PMTs
𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐲 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞
full (curtailment)
· credit quality of borrower important
-
5yrs. 30yrs.
⇒ Interest Rate/ · fixed rate, level payment, fully amortizing
ceiling
e.g./ · adjustable rate mortgage (ARM)
30-yr., 200K @ 6% floor
N = 360 FV = 0 PV = 200,000 I/Y = .5%
CPT PMT = -1199.10
(P) i Principal
Amortization
PMT 1 1199.10 199.10 1000 199,800.90
Schedule
PMT2 1199.10 200.10 999 199,600,80
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0
no prepayments Pg-6
PSA Prepayment Rate -review
100
same speed as benchmark
e.g./ month 5 ➞ CPR = 1%
· CPR of .2%/month up to 6%
(PSA = 100)
· 6%, month 30 onwards
& 𝐂𝐏𝐑 = 𝟏 − (𝟏 − 𝐒𝐌𝐌)𝟏𝟐
𝟏2
𝐒𝐌𝐌 = 𝟏 − (𝟏 − 𝐂𝐏𝐑) 𝟏𝟐
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etc…
· does not eliminate · different maturities
prepayment risk · different yields
protection from
extension risk ‘waterfall’
protection from (principal distribution)
contraction risk
Pg-8
⇒ Non-Agency Credit Risk/
-review
external credit enhancement – Guarantee - Ins. Co.
(wrapped)
⇒ Commercial MBS (CMBS)/ income producing assets ➞ pool of CMBS
-
0 1yr. Principal
revolving
repayment
period
⇒ Call Protection/ results in CMBS trading more like a corporate bond Pg-10
-review
1) prepayment lockout 2-5 yrs.
2) defeasance – borrower purchases securities as collateral
to cover remaining principal balance + an amount to substitute
for what yield would have been (defeasance premium)
3) prepayment penalty points YR.
5 4 3 2 1
105
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100- if r ↓:
carrying value ⇒ purchase price - lower reinvestment
Cap. gain of bond + amortized discount of coupon BUT cap.
gain
(or -amort. of if r ↑: - higher
Cap. loss premium)
t reinvestment of
-
⇒ Duration/ measures the sensitivity of the bond’s full price to changes Pg-2
in r - review
· represents approx. amt. of time a bond would have to be
held be held for the YTM to be realized
PV (+)𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟
e.g. Duration = 5 yrs. if rates ↑,
𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐨𝐧
(−) 𝐜𝐚𝐩. 𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐬
r ➞ = ∅ 𝐢𝐟 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝟓 𝐲𝐫𝐬.
Macauley
· yield duration
modified
𝚫YTM
money
PVBP
gov’t yield curve used with
· curve duration - effective 𝚫benchmark spot curve complex
yield forward curve bonds
par yield curve · financial
assets/liab.
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⇒ Duration/ 𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐞𝐝
𝐧 𝟏 × 𝐏𝐌𝐓 𝟐 × 𝑷𝑴𝑻 𝑵 × (𝑷𝑴𝑻 + 𝑭𝑽) Pg-3
8 + + ⋯+ : - review
𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐃𝐮𝐫 = ˆ 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐟𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐬 (𝟏 + 𝐫) (𝟏 + 𝒓)𝟐 (𝟏 + 𝒓)𝒏
𝐏𝐕𝐟𝐮𝐥𝐥
𝐢<𝟏
⇒ Duration/ Pg-4
assumes a parallel shift in yield curve - review
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Pg-5
⇒ Key Rate Duration/ - review
(𝐏𝐕/ ) − (𝐏𝐕= )
𝐊𝐞𝐲𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐃𝐮𝐫 = - each key
𝟐 × 𝚫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 × 𝐏𝟎
rate may
have a
11 of different 𝚫rate
𝟏𝟏
these
⇒ ˆ 𝐊𝐑𝐃 = 𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐃𝐮𝐫
maturities
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
𝐢<𝟏
11 maturities 𝐌𝐚𝐭 𝟏 𝐌𝐚𝐭 𝟐
%𝚫𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭. 𝐕 = 𝐊𝐑𝐃𝟏 V [ + 𝐊𝐑𝐃𝟐 V [
𝐏𝐕 𝐏𝐕
𝐌𝐚𝐭 𝟏𝟏
+ ⋯ + 𝐊𝐑𝐃𝟏𝟏 V [
⇒ Properties of Duration 𝐏𝐕
D
discount bond
𝟏4𝐫
Z 𝐫
[Perpetuity
premium bond
TTM
PMT PMT
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𝟐
⇒ Convexity Adjustment/
⇒ Duration GAP/
(MacDur. – Investment Horizon)
< 0 - coupon reinvestment risk dominates market price risk
- risk is to lower rates
> 0 - market price risk dominates coupon reinvestment risk
- risk is to higher rates
25 bps -
TTM
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Credit Analysis
Seniority
⇒ Recovery Rates vary by/
Industry
stage of business cycle
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spread + benchmark
affected by/ · credit cycle
· economic conditions
· market performance
· supply and demand
return impact from ≈ ( −𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐃𝐮𝐫 × 𝚫𝐒𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝) + –𝟏6 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐭𝐲 × (𝚫𝐒𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝)𝟐 —
𝟐
spread changes
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Pg-5
⇒ Special Considerations in Credit Analysis/ - review
1) High Yield – more interested in loss severity
- greater focus on liquidity (1- Recovery Rate)
- ‘top-heavy’ cap. structure loss given
= high % of debt as secured default
parent - debt
structural
debt
sub sub sub subordination Hold. Co. restricted
debt debt debt res. res. unres.. vs.
sub sub sub
unrestricted
debt debt debt
subsidiaries
restricted by
debt agreement at Hold Co. level
- covenant analysis
· restricted PMTs to shareholders, restrictions on
liens, etc …
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