THOUSANDS OF JOBS AT RISK

IF UK FAILS TO ACT NOW ON NORTH SEA ENERGY TRANSITION

Neil Pooran & Stuti Mishra

May 21st, 2024

The decline in North oil and gas industry needs to be offset by greater investment in renewables to save
jobs, report says.

The UK will fail to achieve a “just and fair” transition by 2030 unless the government works proactively to sustain
offshore energy industry jobs and investment, a study has found.

5 Experts at Robert Gordon University analysed more than 6,560 pathways for the industry between now and
2030, concluding that political decisions rather than market forces will influence the size of the workforce.

Of the thousands of scenarios analysed, less than 0.3 per cent could be considered a “just and fair” transition,
their report found.

If Scotland is successful with its energy transition objectives, the offshore energy workforce could increase by an
10 estimated 25 per cent.

However, if Scotland does not take advantage of all the potential opportunities in the offshore energy sector,
the workforce could shrink by nearly half, dropping to approximately 48,000 jobs by the year 2030.

Professor Paul de Leeuw said Scotland would be excessively impacted with changes in the offshore workforce
and supply chain, as a high number of offshore jobs are concentrated around Aberdeen.

15 Underlining the scale of the challenge, he said that in order for the workforce to be sustained at current levels of
just over 150,000 in 2030, the installation of new offshore turbines would need to increase to approximately one
per day.

In addition, the UK would need to continue extracting around 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

The total installed capacity of offshore wind generation would need to increase to around 40GW, up from 15GW
20 at the end of 2023.

Oil and gas production is currently expected to decline by around 40 per cent by 2030.

Professor de Leeuw said: “The UK still has a unique opportunity to create a new energy future.

“Accelerating the re-purposing of the North Sea as a world-class, multi-energy basin will ensure the sector can
power the country for decades to come. The prize for the UK to get this right is enormous.

25 “But to deliver this requires action and urgency, which means faster planning and consenting and access to the
grid.”

He continued: “While there is consensus across all stakeholders including governments, politicians, industry
organisations and economic development bodies that we need to realise a ‘just and fair’ transition, a far more
agile and joined-up approach is required to address how the country can best secure its energy ambitions, while
30 addressing the cost-of-living crisis, managing energy security, and delivering on the net zero agenda.
 “The latest research reinforces the need for urgent alignment across the political spectrum to agree the short-
term actions that will deliver a just and fair transition, maintaining the workforce to 2030 to deliver a long-term
net zero future and the associated economic benefits for the country.”

Scotland’s Net Zero and Energy Secretary Mairi McAllan said: “Scotland’s energy transition presents an era-
35 defining opportunity for our economy and people: delivering on our climate obligations, safeguarding our
energy security, and ensuring a fair and just energy transition for our workforces and the communities they
support.

“By working together, with absolute clarity of purpose, we will unlock the vast potential. Indeed, the transition is
already happening with Scotland fast becoming a renewables powerhouse.

40 “The Scottish Government is determined to play its role in maximising these benefits – and negotiating the
challenges – not least through the publication of our Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan, which will set out
our vision for a future energy system that delivers affordable, secure, clean energy and delivers economic
benefits to every part of the country.”

The UK Government said offshore wind is key to its energy transition plans.

45 A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesman said: “The UK is the first major economy to halve its
emissions, and we are leading the way in our transformation of the energy industry, with £100 billion
investment in green industries supporting up to 725,000 jobs by 2030.

“Much of the transferable expertise from offshore energies such as oil and gas will be crucial for the transition to
net zero – and our Green Jobs Plan will ensure we have the sufficient skills to tackle emerging and future
50 workforce demands across the economy.”

Mike Tholen, sustainability, and policy director at the industry group Offshore Energies UK, said: “The UK energy
transition has the potential to provide tens of thousands of new jobs in the next few years and many of
them will require the skills and expertise of the UK’s oil and gas sector.

“Our manifesto published ahead of this year’s election has highlighted research demonstrating £200 billion of
55 investment potential in the UK energy sector.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/uk-north-sea-
energy-jobs-b2548476.html (abridged and adapted) [accessed
on May 25th, 2024]