The Future of Global Affairs Managing Discontinuity Disruption and Destruction 1St Ed Edition Christopher Ankersen Full Chapter PDF

The Future of Global Affairs: Managing
Discontinuity, Disruption and

Destruction 1st ed. Edition Christopher
Ankersen
Visit to download the full and correct content document:
https://ebookmass.com/product/the-future-of-global-affairs-managing-discontinuity-dis
ruption-and-destruction-1st-ed-edition-christopher-ankersen/
More products digital (pdf, epub, mobi) instant
download maybe you interests ...
Enlightenment in an Age of Destruction: Intellectuals,

World Disorder, and the Politics of Empire 1st Edition
Christopher Britt
https://ebookmass.com/product/enlightenment-in-an-age-of-
destruction-intellectuals-world-disorder-and-the-politics-of-
empire-1st-edition-christopher-britt/
Global Business in the Age of Destruction and

Distraction Mahesh Joshi
https://ebookmass.com/product/global-business-in-the-age-of-
destruction-and-distraction-mahesh-joshi/
The Handbook of Global Shadow Banking, Volume II: The

Future of Economic and Regulatory Dynamics 1st ed.
Edition Luc Nijs
https://ebookmass.com/product/the-handbook-of-global-shadow-
banking-volume-ii-the-future-of-economic-and-regulatory-
dynamics-1st-ed-edition-luc-nijs/
US Presidents and the Destruction of the Native

American Nations 1st ed. 2021 Edition Michael A.
Genovese
https://ebookmass.com/product/us-presidents-and-the-destruction-
of-the-native-american-nations-1st-ed-2021-edition-michael-a-
genovese/
The Future of Election Administration 1st ed. Edition
Mitchell Brown
https://ebookmass.com/product/the-future-of-election-
administration-1st-ed-edition-mitchell-brown/
International Politics: Power and Purpose in Global

Affairs 4th Edition, (Ebook PDF)
https://ebookmass.com/product/international-politics-power-and-
purpose-in-global-affairs-4th-edition-ebook-pdf/
Signals: The 27 Trends Defining the Future of the

Global Economy 1st Edition Jeff Desjardins
https://ebookmass.com/product/signals-the-27-trends-defining-the-
future-of-the-global-economy-1st-edition-jeff-desjardins/
Bernard Shaw and Modern Advertising 1st ed. Edition

Christopher Wixson
https://ebookmass.com/product/bernard-shaw-and-modern-
advertising-1st-ed-edition-christopher-wixson/
The Future of Indian Banking 1st ed. 2022 Edition

Vasant Chintaman Joshi
https://ebookmass.com/product/the-future-of-indian-banking-1st-
ed-2022-edition-vasant-chintaman-joshi/
The Future of
Global Affairs
Managing Discontinuity, Disruption
and Destruction
Edited by
Christopher Ankersen · Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu
Foreword by Helen Clark and Vera Jelinek
The Future of Global Affairs
“The Future of Global Affairs is an exciting and balanced contribution to the

debate about the potential trajectory of a world in flux. Tinged more with
concern than utopian optimism, this volume captures a panoramic view of our
cacophonous and disorderly world that is on the verge of disequilibrium and
potential destruction unless key political actors, institutions, and processes can
find a way to adapt global affairs to an increasingly plurilateral and intermestic
era. A must-read for serious IR scholars; written in a way that is understandable
to the lay person.”
—W. Andy Knight, Ph.D., FRSC, University of Alberta
“What is the future of the state? Is multilateralism overrated as an answer to

the diverse ills plaguing the global system? How might climate change disrupt
geopolitical alliances that have been essential to peace in different regions of
the world? Inspired by these and other urgent questions, this simultaneously
illuminating and profoundly unsettling book traces the contours of the ascendant
geopolitics, illustrating how one class of events can have contrasting resonances
and implications around the world. Each chapter explores a different facet of
global affairs, offering perspectives that, though not rosy, serious students of
world politics will do well to take to heart.”
—Ebenezer Obadare, Professor of Sociology, University of Kansas
Christopher Ankersen ·
Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu
Editors
The Future of Global

Affairs
Managing Discontinuity, Disruption and
Destruction
Editors
Christopher Ankersen Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu
Center for Global Affairs Center for Global Affairs
School of Professional Studies School of Professional Studies
New York University New York University
New York, NY, USA New York, NY, USA
ISBN 978-3-030-56469-8 ISBN 978-3-030-56470-4 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-56470-4
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
Nature Switzerland AG 2021
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights
of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and
retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc.
in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such
names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for
general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and informa-
tion in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither
the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with
respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been
made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps
and institutional affiliations.
Cover image: Felix Lipov/Alamy Stock Photo
This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Foreword by Helen Clark
The United Nations (UN) was founded 75 years ago to advance peace,
human rights, and development—a mandate as relevant today as it was
in 1945. Its most remarkable year in recent times in achieving global
consensus on a better future for all was 2015. That year, agreement
was reached on Agenda 2030 and its seventeen Sustainable Develop-
ment Goals (SDGs), the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduc-
tion, the Addis Ababa Action Agenda on Financing for Development,
and the Paris Climate Agreement. The New Urban Agenda was agreed
the following year at the UN’s Habitat III Conference on Housing and
Sustainable Development. Taken together, these constitute an ambitious
agenda, which if implemented in full would transform the prospects of
the world’s peoples and ecosystems.
This ambition is consistent with the UN’s impressive track record of
agenda-setting—the UN was credited by the UN Intellectual History
Project for having been an incubator of new and powerful ideas which
have shaped norms, policies, and practice in many areas. It has been a
platform for the negotiation of a substantial body of international law,
and it has enabled much practical development, and humanitarian work.
In earlier years, it played a significant role in supporting decolonization,
which in turn led to the expansion of its membership from the 51 member
states present at its founding to the 193 of today.
That is not to say that the UN’s record has been without blemish.
The 1994 genocide in Rwanda and the 1995 massacre in Srebrenica—also
v
vi FOREWORD BY HELEN CLARK
called a genocide by many—where peacekeepers were present and did not

act to save lives, will always be a stain on its reputation. Ongoing issues of
sexual and gender-based violence by peacekeepers and in individual UN
organizations are a disgrace. Despite those shortcomings, however, we
should not lose sight of the fact that the reason for the UN’s existence
is to contribute to global public goods, and these days, in doing so, to
contribute to the protection and management of the global commons.
Yet this premier institution in the multilateral system is now under
significant strain. Our world is preoccupied by a wide range of conflicts,
other geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, environmental crises, and
disease outbreaks. In zones of conflict, there continue to be loss of life,
poor services, and little hope for many. Displacement crises are protracted,
and the numbers of those forcibly displaced are at record levels—now over
seventy million. Essential humanitarian relief is a first call on official devel-
opment assistance, leaving less for the poor in low income but more stable
countries. And, on reflection, the major international agreements reached
in 2015 could not have been concluded today; such is the impact of polit-
ical change since then in key capitals from Washington DC to Brasilia and
beyond.
The current situation makes reaching the SDG targets a stretch. In
2030, we could well see some six percent of the world’s population still
living in extreme poverty—far from the target of eradication. The absolute
numbers of hungry people in the world are increasing—according to the
World Food Programme, the total stands at around 820 million, or one in
every nine people on earth. UNESCO reports suggest that one in every
six children will not be able to achieve the SDG target of having twelve
years education by 2030.
While the SDGs were always an aspirational agenda, to fall so short
of their targets not only makes a mockery of them, but also calls into
question the seriousness of the member states which committed to them
and the credibility of the international system. The same is true of the
woeful underperformance on implementation of the Paris Climate Agree-
ment, which the 2019 Madrid climate change Conference of Parties made
plain. If solemnly reached agreements are followed by little action, what,
many will ask, is their point?
For a variety of reasons, the UN has also found it hard to address
new waves of conflict effectively. Its conventional response of dispatching
peacekeepers where there is a peace to be kept is often inadequate—peace-
keepers may be sent where there is no peace to keep, and they may be
FOREWORD BY HELEN CLARK vii
neither equipped to act nor have a mandate to act to stem the violence
which greets them. In a number of the currently raging conflicts, there is
no mandate for UN peacekeepers to be present at all. All too often these
conflicts are in effect proxy wars, with the powerful patrons who back
warring parties having little interest in international mediation.
Additionally, the UN is largely a bystander as key parts of the nuclear
weapons control architecture are being dismantled. An egregious example
is that of the Iran nuclear deal which was endorsed by the UN Security
Council. The US withdrawal from the agreement was a direct challenge
to the authority of the Council which all UN member states are bound
to uphold. The expiry of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
between the United States and what is now Russia is a major threat to
peace and security, but one which the multilateral system in its current
state is not equipped to address.
Challenging as the outlook for the multilateral system currently is,
however, it would be wrong to walk away from it. Its institutions need to
be maintained for times when geopolitics are more conducive to making
them effective. Disengaging only contributes to their decline in rele-
vance. Meanwhile thought should be given to how to reinvigorate the
system. Not all parts of it are useful. Some need a fundamental over-
haul and reorientation. Some entities barely continue on life support, and
would be better absorbed or eliminated altogether. Others need radical
improvements to their efficiency and effectiveness.
To date, neither the UN nor the Bretton Woods Institutions have been
able to address the nature of their outdated governance systems compre-
hensively. For example, the UN Security Council configuration with its
five permanent members designated in 1945 does not remotely reflect
today’s geopolitics. When the World Bank and the International Mone-
tary Fund changed their leaders last year, there was no serious questioning
of where the new heads would come from. They were preordained to be
an American and a European, respectively. Obsolete governance structures
undermine the credibility of these institutions.
The international system could strive to become more inclusive by
embracing a wider range of actors, beyond member states. A pioneer
in that was the International Labour Organization. From its inception
in 1919, it has had tripartite membership consisting of governments,
unions, and employer organizations. Other non-UN bodies, such as the
Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, GAVI—the Vaccine
viii FOREWORD BY HELEN CLARK
Alliance, and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative have repre-

sentation from governments, civil society, and the private sector on their
governing bodies.
It is a challenge for the UN and its core institutions to reform their
governance—they remain very much member state-driven and divisions
between those states run deep. Embracing a more inclusive approach to
the governance of the system would be useful in getting broader engage-
ment in global affairs and thereby securing our common future. Our
world faces profound challenges with which no single country can deal
effectively on its own. Shared problems need effective global governance
to address them. The negotiators of the UN Charter in 1945 understood
that. It is incumbent on the leaders of today in this 75th anniversary year
of the UN’s founding to show the same vision in renewing a multilat-
eral system which can be representative and effective in the twenty-first
century.
From the bedrock of evidence-based policy to the wisdom of gender
equality to the looming climate tragedy, this volume’s approach to the
issues facing the world serves as a useful primer. It stresses the risks and
opportunities posed by disruption and discontinuity, and highlights the
interconnectectedness and urgency required if we are to get this right and
avoid the destruction of the global system.
Christchurch, New Zealand Helen Clark

March 2020
Foreword by Vera Jelinek
The idea for a Center for Global Affairs at New York University had been
brewing in my head for many years prior to its establishment in 2004, but
gained momentum with the seismic and rapid shifts occurring in the field.
With the end of the Cold War, the events of 9/11, and the US invasion
of Iraq in 2003, it became increasingly evident that “international affairs”
was no longer an adequate rubric to describe, understand, and cope with
the rapidly changing landscape. The number of players, even in terms
of traditional states, were expanding exponentially from the 51 original
United Nations members to 193; Non-Governmental Organizations had
evolved to become contenders in shaping and influencing policies; the
private sector and international organizations were setting new norms.
And that speaks only to the actors shaping international relations.
The impact of horizontal forces that were either ignored or previ-
ously played a minor role was also coming to the forefront. The role of
gender, peacebuilding, refugee flows, climate change, energy, terrorism,
transnational security, the internet and communication, among many
other factors, begged for closer scrutiny and study. New trends became
evident: nonalignment lost its salience as the world moved first to unipo-
larity and then multipolarity, multilateralism flourished and gained an edge
over bilateral arrangements, regional organizations expanded, and global-
ization trumped borders and promoted a freer movement of capital, ideas,
people, and goods.
ix
x FOREWORD BY VERA JELINEK
Despite criticism from traditionalists, by 2004, we felt the need to

create a curriculum, which was based on the conviction that the world’s
challenges could not be understood and resolved from the standpoint
only of relations among states but had to take into account the role of
non-state actors, regional organizations, corporations, urban and rural
communities, as well as non-traditional diplomatic channels. Time has
proved that we were justified in launching a graduate program in Global
Affairs.
Fifteen years on, there is a backlash to such a cosmopolitan—some
might say “globalist”—point of view. Ethnic slurs, nationalist ideolo-
gies, demagoguery, exclusionary rather than inclusive politics, polarization
within and between states, barriers to the free flow of trade and other
“isms” reminiscent of the 1930s, not just in Europe and Asia but also
here in the United States, have reared their ugly heads.
That, however, does not mean the end of the liberal era. I am an
unreserved optimist: what we are seeing now is nothing more than a
blip. Eventually, hopefully sooner than later, it will become clear that the
overwhelming challenges that the world faces can only be tackled with a
unified approach. We here at the Center for Global Affairs, and by that I
mean an amazing faculty, many of whom have contributed to this book,
will continue to do battle to help the next generation understand, cope
with, and resolve global problems. We will continue to do so from the
transdisciplinary, flexible, and constantly evolving perspectives that lie at
the heart of the Center’s founding and continue to shape its curriculum
and mission to this day.
No greater proof than the contents of this gem of a volume is needed to
attest to the tumultuous changes in global affairs and the Center’s pivotal
role in the shaping of practice and the study of Global Affairs.
Vera Jelinek
Divisional Dean
Center for Global Affairs, School of Professional Studies
New York University
New York, USA
Acknowledgments
The genesis of this edited book project was to celebrate the fifteenth
anniversary of the Center for Global Affairs (CGA), and be a festschrift
to honor the vision of its founder, Dean Vera Jelinek. CGA’s faculty
warmly embraced the idea and also provided ambitious and encouraging
inputs. Based on that, the initial conception further evolved into a volume
that would offer a glimpse into the future of global affairs across the
concentrations and specializations that the Center offers.
It is of course, one thing to plan an edited volume but quite another
to bring it to fruition; and we are deeply grateful and indebted for the
support and contributions of the many individuals who made it possible.
First, under the tutelage of Dr. Jelinek, CGA has become a home for
global scholars and citizen to hone their skills, and apply lessons from
the classroom into the policy world. Her enthusiastic support helped to
get this project off the ground. Second, our heartfelt thanks to faculty
colleagues who carved out time from their busy teaching, researching,
and engagement schedules to contribute insightful chapters.
The project came alive at workshop on September 13, 2019, which
allowed for a critical discussion of the overall theme of the book, as
well as critique of the individual chapters. It is no exaggeration to claim
that without the frank feedback of the discussants from the academic
and policy worlds, this book would be a shadow of what it is now.
For their constructive inputs and comments we are very grateful to
Franz Baumann, Visiting Research Professor, Program in International
xi
xii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Relations, New York University; Stacey Connaughton, Director, The

Purdue Peace Project, Purdue University; Noa Gafni, Executive Director,
Rutgers Institute for Corporate Social Innovation; Edward Goldberg,
Adjunct Professor, Center for Global Affairs, New York University;
Karen Guttieri, Associate Professor of Cyberwarfare Studies, USAF Cyber
College; David M. Malone, Rector, United Nations University; Heidi
Rosbe, Project Officer, International Rescue Committee; Sarah Taylor,
Senior Fellow, International Peace Institute; and Andras Vamos-Goldman,
Adjunct Professor, Center for Global Affairs, New York University.
The road to publication was made all the more smoother by the
unwavering support and commitment of Dr. Anca Pusca, the dynamic
Executive Editor for International Relations and Security Studies at
Palgrave. Her suggestions, as well as the helpful comments and feed-
back of the anonymous reviewers, were invaluable and helped improve
the final product immeasurably. Additionally, Arun Kumar Anbalagan
and Azarudeen Ahamed Sheriff provided deft editorial and production
support with grace and aplomb. We are grateful for their quest for perfec-
tion. Of course, any errors or lapses that remain are our responsibility
alone.
Finally, we would like to dedicate this volume to CGA’s students, staff,
and faculty—past, present, and future—who have collectively put this
Center on the global affairs map. Their continuing involvement will be
vital to the discipline of Global Affairs in these interesting times.
Christopher Ankersen
Contents
1 Introduction: Navigating Unchartered Waters 1

Christopher Ankersen and Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu
2 The Turbulent Future of International Relations 23

Michael F. Oppenheimer
3 A Kaleidoscopic Future: The State and Assemblages

in Global Affairs 49
Christopher Ankersen
4 The Empiricism Strikes Back: Strategies for Avoiding

a Post-truth World 71
John V. Kane
5 Toward an Enlightened Form of Capitalism:

The Changing Role of Private Organizations
in the Context of Global Affairs 97
Christian Busch
6 International Justice and the International Criminal

Court at a Critical Juncture 123
Jennifer Trahan
xiii
xiv CONTENTS
7 Feminist Principles in Global Affairs: Undiplomatic

Practice 149
Anne Marie Goetz
8 Taking Conflict Transformation Education Seriously 175

Thomas Hill
9 A Changing Agenda for International Development 199

Jens Rudbeck
10 Cyber Competition and Global Stability 223

Pano Yannakogeorgos
11 The Upending of the Geopolitics of Energy:

Disruption Is the New Normal 247
Carolyn Kissane
12 The Future of Climate Action: From Systems Change

to Behavior Change 271
Michael Shank
13 The United Nations: Managing Unrealistic

Expectations 295
Index 321
Notes on Contributors
Christopher Ankersen is a Clinical Associate Professor at the Center for

Global Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University. His
research focuses on international security and civil-military relations. He
has experience as a military officer, consultant, and UN civil servant in
Europe and Asia. His Twitter handle is @ProfAnkersen.
Christian Busch is a Clinical Assistant Professor, and Director of the
Global Economy concentration at the Center for Global Affairs, School
of Professional Studies, New York University. His latest publication is The
Serendipity Mindset. His Twitter handle is @ChrisSerendip.
Anne Marie Goetz is a Clinical Professor at the Center for Global
Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University. She
researches gender issues in democratization and peacebuilding processes
in East Africa, South and South East Asia, and has worked for the UN
on gender and governance, peace and security. Her twitter handle is
@amgoetz.
Thomas Hill is a Clinical Associate Professor at the Center for Global
Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University. He also
serves as director of the Peace Research and Education Program (PREP).
The Twitter handle for PREP is @NYUPeace.
John V. Kane is a Clinical Assistant Professor at the Center for Global
Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University. His research
xv
xvi NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS
interests include public opinion and experimental methodology. His

research has been published in numerous peer-reviewed academic jour-
nals, and featured in leading media outlets. His Twitter handle is
@UptonOrwell.
Carolyn Kissane is the Academic Director, and a Clinical Professor
where she leads the Energy and Environment concentration at the Center
for Global Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University.
Her Twitter handle is @CarolynKissane.
Michael F. Oppenheimer is a Clinical Professor, and leads the IR
Futures concentration at the Center for Global Affairs, School of Profes-
sional Studies, New York University. His latest book is Pivotal Coun-
tries, Alternate Futures. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign
Relations. His Twitter handle is @MFOppenheimer.
Jens Rudbeck is a Clinical Associate Professor, and the head of the
International Development and Humanitarian Assistance concentration
at the Center for Global Affairs, New York University. His research
focuses primarily on processes of democratization and regime change in
developing countries. His Twitter handle is @JensRudbeck
Michael Shank is an Adjunct Assistant Professor at the Center for Global
Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University, and Commu-
nications Director at the Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance. His Twitter
handle is @Michael_Shank.
Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu is a Clinical Associate Professor, and leads
the United Nations specialization at the Center for Global Affairs, School
of Professional Studies, New York University. Widely published, he has
over 25 years of experience in policy research related to the United
Nations. His Twitter handle is @wpssidhu.
Jennifer Trahan is a Clinical Professor, and head of the Human Rights
and International Law concentration at the Center for Global Affairs,
School of Professional Studies, New York University. She is a prolific
scholar on issues of international justice and international law, including
the veto power of the UN Security Council.
Pano Yannakogeorgos is a Clinical Associate Professor at the Center for
Global Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University, and
is leading the launch of the new Masters of Science in Global Security,
Conflict and Cyber. Previously he was Founding Dean of the Air Force
Cyber College at Air University.
List of Figures
Fig. 4.1 Ideological differences in believing an unsupported claim

is true (Source Author’s creation based on data collected
from U.S. adults. Notes Left half of figure shows results
for one claim, while right half of figure shows results for
the opposite claim. Bars indicate proportion of group
believing that the claim is “likely to be true.” Bars include
95% confidence intervals) 77
Fig. 4.2 A small, but encouraging, effect for warning of motivated
reasoning bias (Source Author’s creation based on data
collected from U.S. adults. Notes Left half of figure shows
results for liberals, while right half of figure shows results
for conservatives. Bars indicate proportion of group
believing that the claim [“Placing strict limits on welfare
increases drug-related crime.”] is “likely to be true.” Bars
include 95% confidence intervals) 79
Fig. 4.3 Providing empirical evidence had no effect on perceived
veracity (Source Author’s creation based on data collected
from U.S. adults. Note Bars indicate mean scores on a
1 [“Extremely Unlikely to Be True”] to 5 [“Extremely
Likely to Be True”] scale regarding the claim [“Allowing
more immigrants into a country will tend to increase
crime rates.”]. Bars include 95% confidence intervals) 83
xvii
xviii LIST OF FIGURES
Fig. 5.1 The impact organization (Source Author’s own creation) 113
Fig. 11.1 Estimated petroleum and natural gas production in
selected countries (Source U.S. Energy Information
Administration, based on International Energy Statistics.
Note Petroleum includes crude oil, condensate, and
natural gas plant liquids) 251
List of Tables
Table 4.1 A limited interest in examining evidence 82

Table 4.2 A step-by-step guide for evaluating claims 87
xix
CHAPTER 1
Introduction: Navigating Unchartered Waters
Christopher Ankersen and Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu
“The world,” according to, United States President Donald Trump, “is
a very dangerous place.”1 While this might be dismissed as character-
istic hyperbole from, perhaps, the most sciolistic leader of our times, it
inadvertently underlines the existential challenges posed by the multitude
of seismic shifts since the start of the twenty-first century. While Trump’s
sentiment is perceived by many as characteristic of the international arena,
the ways in which it is dangerous are changing. Three distinct trends
are discernable. First, there are growing intrastate conflicts, which range
from urban violence to terrorism, the takeover of ungoverned spaces
by extremist groups, secessionist movements, and civil wars. These have
erupted on every continent and have mostly been conducted with small
arms and light weapons, though some conflicts have also witnessed the
use of chemical and biological weapons. The period has also seen matura-
tion of the “Forever War” that started on 9/11, accelerated after the
invasion of Iraq, and now sees US forces continue to fight terrorism
C. Ankersen (B) · W. P. S. Sidhu

Center for Global Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University,
New York, NY, USA
e-mail: christopher.ankersen@nyu.edu
W. P. S. Sidhu
e-mail: wpssidhu@nyu.edu
© The Author(s) 2021 1

C. Ankersen and W. P. S. Sidhu (eds.), The Future of Global Affairs,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-56470-4_1
2 C. ANKERSEN AND W. P. S. SIDHU
from Afghanistan to the Philippines to Somalia. In most of these conflicts

innocent civilians have become hapless targets.
Second, the post-Cold War honeymoon is finally over; there are
deepening tensions between major international rivals, evident in the
increasing interstate conflicts and proxy wars both between regional actors
as well as global powers, including some nuclear-armed states. Promi-
nent among these are messy military entanglements in and around Syria
involving Russia, the United States, Iran, Israel, and Turkey, with the
potential of serious escalation. Similarly, Iran and Saudi Arabia are pitted
against each other in Yemen, while China is challenging all the littoral
powers in the South China Sea. These contestations are over territo-
rial, ideological, and normative disputes, including varying interpretations
of international norms and laws. Coupled with modernization programs
and doctrines that might allow for use of nuclear weapons, the nature
of the emerging pattern of interstate conflict is contributing to global
disorder. Indeed, the latest Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) released by
the United States has led many to worry that the long “nuclear peace”
might give way to renewed nuclear competition, if not all-out nuclear war.
These concerns are exacerbated by an exceedingly impulsive, disruptive,
and twitter-happy chief executive in Washington. Simultaneously, China,
always expected to become a dominant global actor, has done so mainly
through its massive economic leverage and growing military clout, and is
providing diplomatic and financial support for alternatives to the liberal
democracy and the post-1945 development script, through a combina-
tion of checkbook diplomacy, military intimidation, and leadership of key
UN agencies.
Third, there is a slew of old and new transnational threats—both
manmade and natural—that no single nation—however powerful—can
manage on its own. These range from pandemics (such as the ongoing
COVID-19 and earlier Ebola outbreaks), natural disasters (wildfires and
floods), climate change induced catastrophes, global criminal networks,
international extremist organizations, cyber and other forms of attacks,
and global proliferation networks. Indeed, despite dire warnings of a
climate crisis, the rate at which CO2 is entering the atmosphere and
contributing to the global warming has not slowed in the last decade
and a half; this even before the imprudent burning of the Amazon forest.
Moreover, cyber and emerging technologies underline the ability of the
individual to construct and disrupt global developments. The iPhone,
which is younger than the Center for Global Affairs, now numbers over
1 INTRODUCTION: NAVIGATING UNCHARTERED WATERS 3
a billion, allowing an unprecedented flow of information—and disinfor-

mation—to reach people all over the globe, including in the hands of
the unparalleled number of migrants fleeing violence or seeking better
opportunities.
These trends reflect disruptions and discontinuities in global affairs,
as well as the potential destruction of the world as we know it. These
formidable trends would have been difficult to manage even in ordinary
circumstances, but they are exacerbated by several emerging characteris-
tics that are contributing to global disorder.2
First, there is the emergence of uber-national, populist leaders and
governments who, while putting their own nations first, are challenging
the globalization that they helped build. This has led some of them to
opt out of international agreements and treaties that they had signed up
to. Moreover, many of these leaders and nations are either outrightly
rejecting multilateralism or are, at the very least, questioning and chal-
lenging international processes, norms, and institutions.
Second, these developments are unfolding against a fragile global
economic backdrop marked by unprecedented trade wars. The Great
Recession of 2008 shook confidence in global capitalism, and required
extraordinary interventions by states and international organizations,
introducing austerity measures that have exacerbated inequalities and
deepened the social divides. The next impending recession in the era
of COVID-19, given the advent of nationalist and populist governments
hell-bent on brazenly rejecting the inevitable march of globalization, and
willing to embark on unwinnable trade wars, might prove to be even more
destructive at the national, regional, and global level.
Third, is the emergence of a disorderly multipolar world. While on the
one hand the world is moving toward political, economic, technological,
and normative multipolarity, on the other the ability to project power
globally still remains the domain of one power—the United States. This
means that while countries like Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico,
and South Africa can shape the emerging rules of global governance,
they do not have the ability to enforce them. Unless these powers can
become security providers, “multipolarity” in the security realm will be a
misnomer.
Fourth, a similar multipolarity is apparent in decision-making of
most domestic, regional, and global rules. This is on account of the
emergence of many stakeholders—beyond the traditional state—in the
decision-making process at the national, regional, and global levels. These
stakeholders, including, civil society, private sector, rich foundations and

individuals, and cities pose challenges but also hold solutions to the global
disorder. At the very least the traditional state-led, top-down decision-
making process now also has to contend with non-state-led, bottom-up
decision-making processes with the inevitable clash. This is evident in
many of the emerging international negotiations and treaties.
Fifth, the rapid pace of technology evolution and diffusion, with
the ability to empower individuals, small groups, and even weak states
has the potential of creating asymmetrical competition. Coupled with
the earlier characteristics of nationalism, multipolarity, and multistake-
holderism, there is a seemingly insurmountable gap between the emerging
technological capabilities and the ability to create norms and institutions
to manage or govern them. The case of He Jiankui, a researcher at
Southern University of Science and Technology in Shenzhen, who used
CRISPR (Clustered regularly-interspaced short palindromic repeats) to
create the first gene-edited twins (Lulu and Nana) in his clinic exemplifies
this dilemma.
Finally, while propaganda was always a decisive instrument in global
affairs, the advent of 24 × 7 global social media, coupled with fact-
less news or “fake news,” armies of trolls, and the ability to influence
millions across borders instantaneously poses new disruptive threats. This
is highlighted by the revelations of Russia’s interference in the 2016 US
elections, and similar fears for the 2020 hustings.
Not all news is bad, of course: The period witnessed the culmination
of the Millennium Development Goals and the launch of their successors,
the even more ambitious Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In
the realm of international law and human rights the activism of the
International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, and
the Special Rapporteurs initiative have raised accountability of some of
the most powerful nations and leaders, even though the enforcement of
many decisions remains woefully inadequate. Similarly, even as Aramco’s
public listing falls short of expectations, the surge toward renewable
energy is noteworthy. In 2004, same-sex marriage was recognized in
only a handful of jurisdictions; now that list has 29 countries on it. The
#MeToo movement has helped to raise awareness of, and erode impunity
for, sexual abuse and harassment in a variety of professions around the
world. The decades-long civil war in Colombia came to a peaceful end
(although the peace arrangement remains fragile). Thinkers like Steven
Pinker remind us that, on aggregate, we live in a richer, healthier, less
violent age now than our ancestors.3 Billions of people have been lifted
out of absolute poverty, diseases like small pox and polio have been
eradicated or nearly so. Life expectancy for most of the world has been
extended. This has not come about automatically or by accident: it has
required dedicated planning and consistent efforts from a whole range
of actors, working top-down, bottom-up, and inside-out all at once.
Lessons have been learned, forgotten or ignored, and relearned in the
process. This progress has been measurable and welcome, but should in
no way be regarded as permanent. Any hope for continued improvement
will rest on deliberate, and collective effort.
The fragility of progress is evident in the United Nations (UN) Secre-
tary General’s warning that the SDGs, hailed as the pinnacle of a desire for
global improvement for all, are in grave danger, as no country is on target
to reach them by 2030.4 Similarly, the erstwhile hope contained within
the wishy-washy 2015 Paris agreement and climate targets was revealed
just four years later in Madrid to have been insufficient, as several nations
clung to the illusion that incremental remedies in the face of a climate
emergency were still plausible. The global trade regime, embodied in the
World Trade Organization, is on the precipice of irrelevance: tariffs and
counter-tariffs look ready to resume, and its dispute resolution mechanism
has come under concerted attack from Washington. In the COVID-
19 era, the need for global responses seems apparent, but today the
centrality of the UN across a range of topics is seriously undermined by
the contempt for multilateralism shown by the current US administration
and other key governments around the world. Some believe that the very
world order—liberal, rule-based, or a vehicle for soft US-hegemony—
is, at the very least, set to shift or, in the extreme scenario, is likely to
entirely collapse. Within that world order, what was once regarded as
the “end of history”—the supremacy of the liberal democratic form of
governance—now appears more fragile than ever, with populism on the
rise everywhere and authoritarian regimes retrenching around the globe.
Ironically, the biggest threat to the liberal democratic order is coming
from within and is led by those who were until recently its custodians. In
2018 Freedom House, for instance, reported its twelfth consecutive drop
in overall freedom, noting a reduction in a number of rights.
What are we to make of this? Will the future of global affairs be the
extension of current trends? Or will we see more disruptions, discontinu-
ities, and even destruction of the existing world order? The complexity
of global affairs (as the sum of real-world activity) requires a multidimen-

sional point of view, and an interdisciplinary set of tools, techniques, and
concepts if it is to be understood and influenced.
Global Affairs (as an academic field) was in its infancy in the immediate
afterglow of the Cold War; now it has expanded in scale and sophis-
tication. While Global Affairs incorporates perspectives from traditional
academic disciplines, such as Development, Political Economy, Interna-
tional Law, and International Relations, it does so in a synthetic way
that allows dynamic and polysemic issues, such as energy and the envi-
ronment, human rights, and gender relations to be treated holistically.
Global Affairs is marked not only by a variegated set of foci, but has
increasingly incorporated rigorous and robust means of inquiry and anal-
ysis. Indeed, the field in 2019 bears little resemblance with that of 2004
when the term first came into vogue, at least among practitioners. How
will Global Affairs as an intellectual and practical enterprise evolve in the
coming years? What is next for the discipline and will the field be able to
keep pace with its topsy-turvy subject matter?
The aim of this volume is to address these questions, but not to
produce a series of identical chapters, each more or less a literature
review attempting to distill a “state of the discipline.” Rather, the chapters
will reflect the diversity of approaches and subjects that coexist within a
necessarily multidisciplinary body of thought that is Global Affairs. Some
chapters will be case studies of particular events or episodes; others may
seek to address wider themes evident in trends and tropes. Each chapter
in this volume will offer a slice of a wider picture, allowing readers to
appreciate the breadth of the field and depth of inquiry into particular
aspects of it.
While the chapters span the spectrum of Global Affairs, all of them
speak to the broad theme of the future both in terms of real-world events,
and the study of them. Despite its heterogeneity, the volume itself will
reverberate with recurring themes, some of which will guide its develop-
ment, many of which will emerge as the research—and the discussions
that stem from it—progresses. Those themes include:
• Whose ideas matter in Global Affairs?

• Which actors will have the greatest impact?
• Will cooperation or competition prevail?
• Has multilateralism peaked?
• Will sovereignty be a problem or a solution?
• Are there lessons we can learn from the past to help build a better
future?
Before tackling those questions, though, it is worthwhile spending time

on the concepts that underpin this enterprise. We now turn to explo-
rations of what constitutes global affairs; how we might look at the future;
and how the exercise of power is changing.
What Is Global Affairs?

The sum of human activity occurring on a planetary scale is clearly too
broad and deep to be encapsulated easily. When we, as a species, have
attempted to create an overarching narrative to describe and explain what
happens at this scale, we have done so in cosmological or theological
ways. Suprahuman forces set our world in motion and are responsible for
all that takes place or will take place. All can be understood only through
the all-seeing, the all-knowing, the all-powerful. Mysteries abound but
the world is a unified whole. Divination, elevation, or intercession are our
only hope at understanding or influencing the world.
In our states and in our academies, on the other hand, our proclivity is
to divide and conquer. And so governments have foreign ministries, trade
bureaus, aid agencies, and defense departments. Universities, likewise, are
divided into faculties and disciplines. Each of these categories promises
to make tackling global affairs more manageable through specializing;
the game-winning strategy is supposedly one of uber-specialization. It is
our contention that such hyper-focus, a commitment to drilling down
into the component aspects of global affairs, may blind us to the larger
patterns at play. Library shelves are full of tomes extolling the various
traditional subject-first approaches to world issues. However, Economics
without Politics, Law without History, Development without Gender all
fail to encompass the comprehensiveness that is Global Affairs.
Global affairs are, simply put, the activities that take place across the
world, outside the scope of a single state. Indeed, as we argue in this
volume, global affairs are beyond the scope of any and all states. While
global affairs have existed for centuries, it is only recently that they have
been recognized as such. Rather than merely looking at the world as the
sum of diplomacy or trade, foreign ministries were forced to acknowl-
edge the existence of other activities and other actors after the end of the
Cold War. After decades of strict us versus them approaches, untidy prob-
lems began to be noticed; untidy because they did not fit into existing
organizational mandates or categories. And so foreign ministries began
creating new divisions and desks to deal with these so-called new or non-
traditional challenges. What was included in those miscellaneous bureaux
began modestly enough: things like human security, sustainable develop-
ment, post-conflict justice, etc. Rather than the black and white world of
war and peace, there was a recognition—long overdue—that global affairs
was far more complex than previously conceived.5
Building on this appreciation of complexity, Global Affairs,6 as an
academic field of study seeks to be more holistic, harnessing the special
knowledge contained in Economics, International Law, and Interna-
tional Relations (as examples), and amplifying their analytical power
through combination with other approaches. For instance, no discus-
sion of the global economy can be complete without reference to world
energy markets. And, as is increasingly clear, only looking at energy as
a commodity, and ignoring its effects on the environment and human
development is inadequate, to say the least. Indeed, a singular focus on
politics or economics, will yield a poorer result than a more well-rounded
approach, inclusive of social and cultural aspects of global affairs.
As such, this volume is committed to surveying the future of global
affairs from a number of perspectives, looking to point out connec-
tions where they occur. When looking at security, for example, we have
to consider the role of gender. When considering the UN, we have
to see it across all its facets, not just the Security Council, the Secre-
tariat, or any one of its specialized agencies. When considering global
actors, we must include more than just states, incorporating the needs
and contributions—both positive and negative—of corporations, NGOs,
and individuals.
Finally, it is vital that we expand our focus beyond the West and
acknowledge the truly global nature of global affairs. The ideas, aspi-
rations, and challenges of many states and peoples around the world
have tended to have been sidelined by International Relations, or, when
considered, shoe-horned into existing structures (e.g., East versus West,
North versus South), neglecting the needs of billions of people, rele-
gating countries to bit parts, with only significance if and when they
might further an agenda other than their own. A large part of this belated
recognition must include an appreciation that, while change may be a
global constant, it impacts us all in different ways. Beyond irresponsibly
assigning people roles as victims, potential customers, likely terrorists, or

future challengers, Global Affairs must dedicate itself to authentic engage-
ment with the ideas and agency of the entire planet. Besides, as recent
trends, especially in the time of COVID-19, have shown, norm creation
is increasingly being driven by actors from the global South—both state
and non-state—as well as by middle or small powers, rather than hege-
mons. The discipline will be well served to recognize and take on board
these perspectives.
Power, State, and System

The state, contrary to assertions of its demise or irrelevance, continues
to remain the primary actor in the contemporary world. Its central role
in global affairs is not going to change in the short term. Indeed, we
are constantly reminded of the allure of the state, partly because those
groups which are not states often clamor to become them. This is as
true for the Islamic State as it is for the people of Bougainville. If this
were not enough evidence of the utility of being a state, we could look
at how statehood is actively being denied to the Kurds and others (by
several of their neighboring governments). Statehood remains coin of the
global realm. Only states can occupy full-voting seats at the UN General
Assembly. Only states can receive loans from the World Bank. States are
flexing their muscles on and offline, using their power to control the flow
of information and the behavior of their citizens. Iran was able to shut
down its internet in the Autumn of 2019. The Chinese state has interned
a million of its citizens, and is building up structures in the South China
Sea. The US state is building a wall along its southern border and operates
a fleet of thirteen aircraft carriers. How many battalions, we might we
ask, has the Pope? Or Amazon? Or Ali Baba? Or Amnesty International?
However, state collapse or failure—notably in Afghanistan, Haiti, and in
several countries in Africa—is also indicative that the weaker ones also
pose danger to themselves, others states, and their peoples.
Additionally, we should not be blind to the fact that states, while
seeming indelible, are not the only actors on the global stage. Unarmed
firms like Google, Facebook, Nestle, and Exxon control resources and
have influence well beyond the reach of many of the nearly 200 states
now extant. What is more, with that economic clout, they are often
able to hold sway over states, convincing them to legislate in ways
which favor their commercial interests. Moreover, now individuals too
have the wherewithal to achieve change on their own, or to influence

states to adopt their agenda. Technology has lowered the barrier of
entry, providing non-state actors or individuals the ability to buy, sell,
communicate, and even attack like never before. While individuals like
Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Elon Musk illustrate the economic poten-
tial of individuals, Greta Thunberg, Malala Yusufzai, and Nadia Murad
highlight that the conviction and voice of a single person, even without
billions of dollars, can resonate across oceans and over borders. Perhaps
even more effective at mobilizing action are civil society groups, such
as the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN)—
a coalition of 500 nongovernmental and civil society organizations in
101 countries—that spearheaded the process, which culminated in the
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons or the NGO Ban Killer
Robots, which has animated the debate on autonomous weapon systems,
convincing diplomats from states around the world to echo their message
in the chambers of the Conference on Disarmament within the Palais des
Nations in Geneva.
How can we make sense of this? One way is to expand our under-
standing of power and look beyond the usual dimensions of military
and political, which so far have tended to favor states. Michael Mann’s
four-fold sources of social power formulation is instructive here.7 To the
traditional three aspects of power he adds a normative or ideological
power. And it is, perhaps, here where we have seen the biggest change.
Increasingly states are regarded as lacking in normative power, both
from without and within their borders. “Sovereignty First” movements
have exposed the naked interests of individual states, leaving little room
for cooperation, sacrificing collective action on the altar of beggar thy
neighbor. State-run disinformation campaigns, preferences for short-term
gains tied to election cycles or regime security have tarnished the legit-
imacy of the state. This normative power is now diffused, and scattered
among other actors. In some cases, people appear to place more trust
in corporations. Billions of users of platforms, such as Google or Face-
book willingly give up large swathes of their private data—information
they would object to falling into the hands of domestic law enforcement
or foreign espionage agencies. Similarly, some regional and international
organizations also command legitimacy and are considered more trust-
worthy than even some of their member states, perhaps on account of
their seemingly “supranational” ambit. UNICEF and the Red Cross, for
instance, enjoy the trust of many around the world. This diffusion is
uneven, however. A slim majority of Britons appear to have lost faith in

the regional umbrella provided by their membership in the EU: for them,
Brussels no longer exercises normative power.
How can we account for this and how far is this trend likely to go?
French President Emmanuel Macron worries that there is potential for
the West to lose its dominant position in the world, as the normative
appeal of its values ebbs away. For some, this represents the end of an era.
For others, particularly those outside the West, it is seen as comeuppance
or merely a timely readjustment of the ideological poles.
Either way, it is worth noting that the current manifestation of the
state-centric system of global affairs, constructed largely by the victors of
the Second World War, and tweaked by them at the end of the Cold
War, is showing signs of strain. Rather than an inevitable and perma-
nent structure, it needs to be seen as a complex ecosystem, dynamic, and
exceedingly fragile. If not maintained, it will be transformed into some-
thing else. Whatever comes of it, it is unlikely to remain as it is, nor return
to some status quo ante of a golden age. New voices have emerged and
are emerging, ready to help shape what comes next, ready to assume and
implement the full range of economic and social power to achieve their
goals, even though some of these impinge on the power of the state.
How Do We Understand the Future?

This volume presents not just the current state of global affairs but also
attempts to peer into the near future.8 Individual authors were left to
decide what that future might look like, and whether to focus more on
the world or the field of Global Affairs as an academic pursuit. The aim is
not to predict precise possibilities, but to sketch out plausible threats and
opportunities, and foreground what we can do today to avoid or exploit
them.
While acknowledging the unknowability of what is yet to come, it is
possible to make some remarks here about how the future is understood
within this volume. First, the future is not necessarily linear. Rather than
being an incremental path from the past, through the present, and on
to the future, it is quite possible that we might see oscillations, serious
disruptions, discontinuities, and/or even destruction. It is not a uniquely
twenty-first-century phenomenon. Looking back on human existence we
have seen repression, revolutions, and recurrences.
In a related sense, we must avoid the temptation of believing that time

is teleological: progress toward some inevitable end is not guaranteed,
even if we allow for the occasional loop-the-loop or cul-de-sac. History
is not over and tomorrow may not be bright. A particular manifestation
of this pathology can be seen in technological solutionism; an unfounded
belief that technology will make the future a perfected version of today.9
Equally, though, fatalism is most probably inaccurate and most definitely
unhelpful. Humans have agency, even it if is constrained by the struc-
tures we have built within global affairs. Certainly, the choices we make
today—to abrogate treaties; not to invest in greener technologies—have
implications and may bring about a different future, but not necessarily
one that we were expecting or will like…or even survive.
Change usually comes incrementally, in small quanta, either positive
or negative. The concept of human security, though enshrined in the
1945 UN charter, came into practice only after the end of the Cold War
in 1990 in the form of the Human Development Index. Similarly, real
wages have not increased a great deal within the industrial world. On the
contrary, income inequalities have increased. Sometimes, though, those
small changes lead to big impacts. The global temperature is currently set
to rise by a mere 3 °C; but when that does occur, it will render much
of the globe uninhabitable and lead to mass extinctions.10 Small changes
are not the only option though. Occasionally, large changes take place:
revolutions, market collapses, world wars are all real possibilities, even if
we do not notice their antecedents.
A final reminder is that we need to do our best to avoid the Scylla
of presentism (“it has never been like this before”) and the Charybdis
of historicism (all events are determined by history). We certainly can
detect echoes of past situations which are, at least, analogous to today.
Decision-makers have always been faced with complexity; surprises have
always happened. Thus, the future will be very different than the past or
the present.11 To believe otherwise is fantasy.
Disruption, Discontinuity, and Destruction

As the subtitle of this volume connotes, we see a variety of possible
outcomes in the near future. That we are at an inflection point seems
apparent, but the form of that change is not yet evident. While we will
not be lured into making precise predictions, we believe that three broad
options are likely to manifest. These three options need not be universal
in scope and all three may overlap and coexist, with different outcomes
extant in different issues or geographic areas. While we are not confi-
dent in forecasting what comes next, we are reasonably confident that
tomorrow’s global affairs will not look like today’s.
One possibility is disruption. This implies a change—either tempo-
rary or permanent—in the way that global affairs are conducted, even
though the system remains mostly unchanged. Such disruptions could be
normative, political, economic, social, or technological. Previous exam-
ples of disruptive ideas might be the antislavery movement, communism,
and fascism, while today globalization is, clearly, a disruptive economic
phenomenon. Technological disruptions, such as the innovations of the
industrial revolution, advent of aviation, space travel, and artificial intel-
ligence are, clearly, dual use and could be used for both constructive or
destructive purposes. Indeed, disruptions possess both progressive and
regressive potential. However, they do not necessarily have a systemic
impact; they merely affect the way that key actors operate within it.
Another distinct possibility is discontinuity, which indicates a break
from the past, that may or may not result in a systemic change (depending
on the impact of disruption or destruction). At a minimum, disconti-
nuity might see the emergence of new powers within the existing system.
Thus, China’s growing profile and clout within the UN system might
reflect this discontinuity. At a maximum, discontinuity might also lead to
the cessation or suspension of some aspects of the global system and/or
the creation of alternative systems. Again, China’s establishment of the
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and its role in creating the New
Development Bank (along with Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa),
partly in response to being dissatisfied with the limited role in the existing
international financial institutions, exemplifies longer-term discontinuity.
Similarly, the Group of 20 countries assuming a greater role in peace and
security issues, as an alternative to an unreformed Security Council, also
marks discontinuity.
Finally, there is destruction, which suggests the permanent demise of
the existing system of global order. Historically, such destruction was
prompted by great power conflict at a global level. Thus, the collapse
of the European ancien regime in the wake of the First World War and
the death of the League of Nations following the outbreak of the Second
World War are examples of institutional destruction. Until the end of the
Second World War, such man-made destruction was inevitably followed
by the construction of a new institution to manage global order, as
evidenced in the creation of the UN. However, after the advent of the
nuclear age in 1945, any future direct conflict among nuclear-armed great
powers might result in cataclysmic global destruction, and the inability

to create a successor to the UN. Today, apart from nuclear war, the
climate change crisis, and, indeed, COVID-19 like pandemics also poses
an existential threat to the planet and absolute systemic collapse.
Overview of the Book

Michael Oppenheimer argues that rather than disruption or destruction,
the decline in US leadership represents a discontinuity of the system since
1945 and uncertainty of what might replace it. His chapter elaborates
that the future of IR will emerge from three intersecting forces: globaliza-
tion (but without liberal rules, institutions, and leadership); multipolarity
(the end of American hegemony and wider distribution of power among
states and non-states, even as power itself is redefined); and the prolif-
eration of distinctive, national, and subnational identities (what Sam
Huntington called the “non-westernization of IR”). Any two of these
forces are compatible with stability: multipolarity (inherently more prone
to conflict than other configurations of power, according to Kenneth
Waltz) and globalization can work in a world of convergent values and
effective conflict management (Congress of Vienna). Divergent values and
multipolarity can work in an autarchic world of isolated units; divergent
values and globalization can be reconciled by hegemonic power. But all
three forces operating simultaneously will produce a future of increasing
internal polarization and cross border conflict, diminishing economic
growth and poverty alleviation, weakened global institutions and norms of
behavior, and reduced collective capacity to confront emerging challenges
of global warming, accelerating technology change, nuclear weapons
innovation and proliferation. As in any effective scenario, this future is
clearly visible to any keen observer; we have only to believe our own eyes.
Christopher Ankersen’s chapter examines whether the resurgence of
sovereignty first principles among some states could undermine the
salience of the supranational identities. For a long time, the scholarly view
of the planet has been decidedly Western and state-centric. Increasingly,
though, that perspective is being understood as partial, at best, and prob-
lematic, at worst.12 Ankersen posits that the future of global affairs will
be somewhat more inclusive; more voices will join the choir. We need
to expand our focus to include not only the state, but the coalitions,
alliances, and international organizations created by them, so that we can
better appreciate what is actually taking place on the planet. The outcome,
he predicts, will not be harmonious, though: inclusive means additive, not

integrated. The erstwhile commitment to multilateralism that was a key
feature of the world order since 1945 has faded, only to be replaced by
a more self-interested view. The arrangements that states will find them-
selves in will not be fixed, but transitory, much like the images formed
by a kaleidoscope. Stable alliances and global agreements will be replaced
by temporary hook-ups. This does not bode well for our ability to tackle
global challenges, such as those posed by pandemics like COVID-19.
These megatrends are occurring against the backdrop of the
weaponization of facts. John Kane’s chapter tackles how the phenomenon
of truth is being played out in global affairs now and in the future. Despite
a growing appetite for “evidence-based” thinking and policymaking, we
are nevertheless grappling with the challenges of living in an era of “fake
news.” Kane is concerned that we are heading for a “post-truth” world
in which “nothing matters” except whatever we want to believe. Kane
explains the implications of that and how scholars and citizens alike need
to guard against falling into the trap of relativism. Toward that end, he
provides a practical framework for critically evaluating information, and is
confident that it is only through the objective pursuit of knowledge about
our world as a shared value can we begin to talk with, rather than past,
one another about the most pressing issues of our time.
Turning our attention to the global economy, Christian Busch sees
that, in today’s fast-changing world, the role of business, government,
and civil society actors is being redefined. Enormous challenges related to
climate change, inequality, populism, and technology necessitate public
and private sector organizations to rethink their responsibilities and
approaches. This provides opportunities as well as challenges. Based on
in-depth research on private and public sector organizations, as well
as a review of the most relevant developments related to the global
economy over the last 15 years, this chapter lays out a framework
of how an enlightened kind of capitalism can emerge based on novel
approaches of private and public sector organizations. Analyzing the past
and future of global affairs via the prism of the global economy, this
chapter shows how purpose-orientation, co-opetition, innovative multi-
stakeholder-partnerships, and community-led approaches grounded in an
enlightened self-interest will shape the future of global affairs in the
decades to come. It captures how in a world of discontinuities and
disruptions—in which the only constant is change—individuals and orga-

nizations can develop the capacity to deal with the unexpected and play
an effective role in tackling society’s most pressing challenges.
Similarly, the loose regime of laws, customs, and norms, governing
global affairs is at an inflection point, reflecting a discontinuity. Jennifer
Trahan focuses, in particular, on the International Criminal Court (ICC),
as well as the creation of a variety of inelegantly named “mechanisms” for
compiling evidence of atrocity crimes in Syria, Iraq, and Myanmar. As to
the ICC, she argues that it is at a key crossroads, having already weath-
ered extensive political “push back” against its work—a campaign for mass
withdrawals (particularly for the withdrawal of African states) from the
Court, as well as a campaign to reassert immunity for heads of state. Yet,
the Court continues to face serious resistance to its work, as exempli-
fied by scathing and destructive attacks against the Court, including by
US government officials, especially when the Court attempts to prosecute
state actors. Such difficulties have been exacerbated by the recent rejec-
tion by the ICC’s Pre-Trial Chamber of the Prosecutor’s application to
proceed with investigation of crimes committed in Afghanistan. As to the
“mechanisms” created to compile crime evidence of atrocities committed
in Syria, Iraq, and Myanmar, Trahan raises the question of whether the
creation of such mechanisms (rather than creation of international or
hybrid tribunals) represents a retreat for the field of international justice,
forced to adapt to a more hostile political landscape. A key challenge for
the international community will be to ensure such evidence collection
successfully feeds into systematic prosecutions before courts and tribunals
that respect due process and do not implement the death penalty. The
chapter concludes that in the future we will, more than ever, need the
ICC and other accountability mechanisms in the face of still far too many
atrocity crimes being committed, including by state actors.
As in the case of international law, the gendered assumptions driving
much of global affairs led to a fundamental rethinking of the traditional
areas of international relations and politics, and led to the emergence
of the disruptive ‘Feminist Foreign Policy’ (FFP) agenda. Anne-Marie
Goetz’s chapter asserts that the defense of “national sovereignty”
has allowed states to shield patriarchal preferences, not only blocking
women’s rights but contributing to some of the most destructive features
of national and international decision-making. For FFP to deliver a
significant course correction in international affairs, its practitioners must
accept that ending diplomatic silence on abuses of women has costs. It
can bring diplomatic isolation or trigger domestic protest since it may

make transnational business arrangements, including arms deals—the fuel
for protracted conflicts—contingent on respect for women’s rights.
Clearly, there is a need to counter and, perhaps, even reverse
these trajectories of conflict. Thomas Hill believes that overcoming a
widespread misunderstanding of what is needed to build peaceful societies
stands as one of the greatest global challenges of our time. Governments
typically over-invest in military approaches to state security while much-
smaller investments in development programs meant to improve human
security and resilience to conflict are short termed and apolitical. Educa-
tion often is overlooked as a possible peacebuilding mechanism, and when
it is not, is treated, quite literally, as a children’s matter. Hill argues that
building a global constituency that understands, supports, and engages
effectively in peacebuilding will require a radical shift toward a new
form of education for youth. Conflict Transformation Education (CTE)—
characterized by thoughtful deliberation and dialogue, an emphasis on
creativity, an acknowledgment of its explicit political nature, and efforts to
develop cross-communal peacebuilding constituencies—stands as higher
education’s possible answer to over-securitization. Recent participatory
action research with higher education actors in Iraq, Colombia and
Kuwait offer helpful examples of how scholars and students based in those
contexts already have been using CTE methods to counteract dominant
narratives about the inevitability of violence, and to create and reinforce
notions of shared fate that are prerequisites to building and sustaining
peace.
Founded on the recognition of the interdependence of enduring secu-
rity, peace, development, and human rights, a global consensus was
reached, in the form of SDGs, which represent a landmark event. As
Jens Rudbeck explains, when the 2015 Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs) were established in 2000, there were 63 low-income countries
in the world. Fifteen years later, there are only 33 left. While such a
dramatic decline suggests that poverty and hunger are becoming prob-
lems of the past, it is far too early to declare mission accomplished. Rather
than disappearing poverty and hunger are increasingly concentrated in
countries characterized by violent conflict and unstable state institutions.
Today, half of the world’s poor and hungry live in conflict-affected soci-
eties compared to a decade and a half ago when four-fifth of them
lived in stable, low-income countries. These new dynamics raise diffi-
cult questions about how to solve the most pertinent development issues.
Rudbeck explores the changing patterns of core development issues and

critically assess the nature of the solutions proposed by the international
development community. Whereas the 2015 MDGs were about reducing
poverty and building human capital for the poor, the 2030 SDGs focus on
building inclusive, peaceful, resilient and prosperous societies. However,
even as no country can claim to have found a path to sustainable devel-
opment, an important new element in the SDGs is the idea that the goals
are universal for all states.
A key driver toward a sustainable future is technology dependent
and a technology-driven disruption is underway: we are moving from a
purely physical globe to an increasingly virtual one. As Pano Yannako-
georgos explains, the consequences of this compression have brought on
an unprecedented global interconnectedness and interdependence never
before known among peoples and locales. Underpinning new possi-
bilities for economic development and innovation are vulnerable and
unstable information and communication technology (ICT) operational
technology (OT) and platform IT (PIT) infrastructures which holisti-
cally are termed “cyberspace.” The integrity of this domain is essential to
economic development, national security, public safety, and modern civic
discourse worldwide. Seeking to exploit vulnerabilities in a fragile techno-
logical ecosystem are nation-states, terrorist groups, criminal gangs, and
other malicious substate actors. Cyber competition among these actors is
always evolving. The terrain is blurred between public and private entities,
the targets and exploits are in a constant state of upgrade, and competitors
are indistinct and ubiquitous. The state-centered international system is
thus under immense pressure as existing security frameworks and stability
measures become more outmoded. Yannakogeorgos offers an analysis of
the altering landscape of political, military and economic competition in
and by means of cyber. Using recent events and documented experiences
as examples, he reveals our dependence on networks, and, more worry-
ingly, the fragility of these networks. Yannakogeorgos concludes with
suggestions for how the global community may manage risks to assure
that cyber is an economic enabler, enhancing human prosperity rather
than a source of instability and conflict.
Parallel disruptions, as Carolyn Kissane explains, are already evident
in the contours of the geopolitics of energy, which have radically trans-
formed over the last two decades. In the early years of the twenty-first
century, policy discussions centered around the existential threat posed
by peak oil supply. In capitals across the world, policymakers wondered
how they could best prepare their states for declining oil production. The
scarcity of supply was the risk, and the multitude of economic and polit-
ical sensitivities associated with energy security drove countries to seek
new ways of securing hydrocarbons. Kissane explores the energy transition
and examines how the geopolitics of energy is experiencing a new stage
of discontinuity, exposing both new risks and opportunities for producers
and consumers of global energy.
Great Thunberg’s high-profile Atlantic crossing by yacht highlighted
the potential climate risks associated with energy transition, and did so in
a highly personal way. Thus, Michael Shank argues that the response to
the climate crisis is no longer the purview of national policymakers only,
since presidents and prime ministers are backing out of the Paris climate
agreement—a pact that intended to locate the focus of greenhouse gas
emissions reduction in the hands of national governments. Increasingly,
subnational actors—cities, states, businesses, universities, hospitals, reli-
gious organizations, and other nonprofit sectors in both the global North
and South—are taking the lead and filling the void left by national govern-
ments. As part of this locus shift, personal behavior change is increasingly
discussed among these subnational actors—and by the storytellers within
society (e.g., media)—and, as a result, social norms encouraging sustain-
able consumption (e.g., plant-based diets, slow fashion) are becoming
more mainstream in the climate action space, complementing the more
traditional and expected environmental choices (e.g., recycling, LED
lightbulbs, carbon-light transit). While some frontiers continue to remain
stigmatized (e.g., family planning), the invigorated action among subna-
tional actors is ambitious and inspiring. Shank explores the systems-level
transformations happening within one particular sector of subnational
society—global cities in the global North and South that are taking
aggressive action on climate change—since the majority of the world’s
population resides in cities and since cities are responsible for the majority
of the world’s energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Shank concludes
by tracing out the potential shift, within these cities, toward behavior
change strategy and how behavioral economics and social psychologies
may be useful in motivating residents within these cities to further reduce
subnational sector emissions.
How might any of these global challenges—marked as they are
by tension and contestation—be managed? Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu
contends that, despite the advent of new challenges, actors, and insti-
tutions in the post-9/11 age, the United Nations (UN) still remains
the multilateral center of global affairs. Indeed, in spite of threats from

within and without, the UN continues to shape the global discourse on
peace and security, development, and human rights. Over the past 15
years the adoption of Security Council resolution 1540, the SDGs, the
Paris Agreement on climate change, the Responsibility to Protect prin-
ciples, the creation of UN Women, as well as the successful negotiation
of the Arms Trade Treaty and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear
Weapons, are indicative of this trend. However, the implementation of
these norms, agreements, and treaties remains uneven at best and nonex-
istent at worst. Moreover, the present trend of countries pursuing “nation
first” policies while questioning multilateralism and global governance is
likely to further impair the UN’s operational role. Sidhu examines the
UN’s efforts in managing global disorder and discontinuities, and the
prospects of establishing a new world order over the coming decades.
This volume offers a rather somber appreciation of the future of global
affairs. Destruction is not inevitable; however, navigation the multitude
of discontinuities and disruptions will require concerted collective action
at all levels, linking from the individual to the global. To spur the neces-
sary policy innovations in global affairs, the discipline of Global Affairs
also needs to be more comprehensive: we stress the need to replace the
twin shackles of state-only policy and practice, and siloed academic anal-
ysis with a transdisciplinary approach. The real challenge will be doing
so in a global, inclusive, and cooperative manner, which has not been
the hallmark of the discipline subjected to the parochial, exclusive, and
confrontational dominant discourse until now.
Notes
1. America First! 2018. Statement from President Donald J. Trump on
Standing with Saudi Arabia, White House, 20 November. https://
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-donald-j-
trump-standing-saudi-arabia/.
2. Sidhu, W. P. S. 2018. “Global trends: disruptive, dangerous and disor-
derly”, Mint, 26 February.
3. Pinker, Steven. 2012. The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has
Declined. New York: Penguin. Pinker’s thesis, of course, has been subject
of much discussion, including pointed critique. The best example of that
is Braumoeller, Bear. 2019. Only the Dead: The Persistence of War in the
Modern Age. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
4. Report of the Secretary-General on SDG Progress 2019, Special Edition.

New York: United Nations. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/con
tent/documents/24978Report_of_the_SG_on_SDG_Progress_2019.pdf.
5. Goodhand, Jonathan. 1999. “From wars to complex political emergencies:
Understanding conflict and peace-building in the new world disorder”.
Third World Quarterly, 20:1, 13–26.
6. In keeping with the convention used elsewhere in academic writing, espe-
cially in International Relations, when referring to the state of the ‘real
world’ we use global affairs with lower case letters. When referring to the
academic field of Global Affairs we use upper case letters.
7. Mann, Michael. 1986–2014. Social Sources of Power: Volumes I to IV.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
8. While no precise time-horizon has been imposed, all authors recognize the
need to focus on the next 15–25 years, as opposed to the more distant
future. This is largely meant to identify the need for priority action, and
avoid any flights of fancy that might otherwise be possible if the emphasis
is shifted too far into the unknown, and unknowable, future.
9. Morozov, Evgeny. 2013. To Save Everything, Click Here: The Folly of
Technological Solutionism. New York: Public Affairs.
10. Fountain, Henry. 2019. “Climate change is accelerating, bringing world
dangerously close to extinction”, New York Times, 4 December and UN
News. 2019. “Climate change: Another year of record gas emissions,
warns UN meteorological agency”, 25 November. https://news.un.org/
en/story/2019/11/1052111.
11. Fernández-Armesto. 2019. Filipe, Out of Our Minds: A History of What
We Think and How We Think It. New York: Oneworld.
12. Acharya, Amitav and Buzan, Barry. 2019. The Making of Global Interna-
tional Relations: Origins and Evolution of IR at Its Centenary. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
CHAPTER 2
The Turbulent Future of International

Relations
Michael F. Oppenheimer
Four structural forces will shape the future of International Relations:

globalization (but without liberal rules, institutions, and leadership)1 ;
multipolarity (the end of American hegemony and wider distribution
of power among states and non-states2 ); the strengthening of distinc-
tive, national and subnational identities, as persistent cultural differences
are accentuated by the disruptive effects of Western style globalization
(what Samuel Huntington called the “non-westernization of IR”3 ); and
secular economic stagnation, a product of longer term global decline in
birth rates combined with aging populations.4 These structural forces
do not determine everything. Environmental events, global health chal-
lenges, internal political developments, policy mistakes, technology break-
throughs or failures, will intersect with structure to define our future.
But these four structural forces will impact the way states behave, in the
M. F. Oppenheimer (B)
Center for Global Affairs, School of Professional Studies, New York University,
New York, NY, USA
e-mail: mo41@nyu.edu
© The Author(s) 2021 23

C. Ankersen and W. P. S. Sidhu (eds.), The Future of Global Affairs,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-56470-4_2
24 M. F. OPPENHEIMER
capacity of great powers to manage their differences, and to act collec-

tively to settle, rather than exploit, the inevitable shocks of the next
decade.
Some of these structural forces could be managed to promote pros-
perity and avoid war. Multipolarity (inherently more prone to conflict
than other configurations of power, given coordination problems)5 plus
globalization can work in a world of prosperity, convergent values, and
effective conflict management. The Congress of Vienna system achieved
relative peace in Europe over a hundred-year period through informal
cooperation among multiple states sharing a fear of populist revolution.
It ended decisively in 1914. Contemporary neoliberal institutionalists,
such as John Ikenberry, accept multipolarity as our likely future, but are
confident that globalization with liberal characteristics can be sustained
without American hegemony, arguing that liberal values and practices
have been fully accepted by states, global institutions, and private actors
as imperative for growth and political legitimacy.6 Divergent values plus
multipolarity can work, though at significantly lower levels of economic
growth-in an autarchic world of isolated units, a world envisioned by
the advocates of decoupling, including the current American presi-
dent.7 Divergent values plus globalization can be managed by hegemonic
power, exemplified by the decade of the 1990s, when the Washington
Consensus, imposed by American leverage exerted through the IMF
and other U.S. dominated institutions, overrode national differences,
but with real costs to those states undergoing “structural adjustment
programs,”8 and ultimately at the cost of global growth, as states—espe-
cially in Asia—increased their savings to self insure against future financial
crises.9
But all four forces operating simultaneously will produce a future
of increasing internal polarization and cross border conflict, diminished
economic growth and poverty alleviation, weakened global institutions
and norms of behavior, and reduced collective capacity to confront
emerging challenges of global warming, accelerating technology change,
nuclear weapons innovation and proliferation. As in any effective scenario,
this future is clearly visible to any keen observer. We have only to abolish
wishful thinking and believe our own eyes.10
2 THE TURBULENT FUTURE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 25
Secular Stagnation
This unbrave new world has been emerging for some time, as US power
has declined relative to other states, especially China, global liberalism
has failed to deliver on its promises, and totalitarian capitalism has proven
effective in leveraging globalization for economic growth and political
legitimacy while exploiting technology and the state’s coercive powers to
maintain internal political control. But this new era was jumpstarted by
the world financial crisis of 2007, which revealed the bankruptcy of unreg-
ulated market capitalism, weakened faith in US leadership, exacerbated
economic deprivation and inequality around the world, ignited growing
populism, and undermined international liberal institutions. The skewed
distribution of wealth experienced in most developed countries, politi-
cally tolerated in periods of growth, became intolerable as growth rates
declined. A combination of aging populations, accelerating technology,
and global populism/nationalism promises to make this growth decline
very difficult to reverse. What Larry Summers and other international
political economists have come to call “secular stagnation” increases the
likelihood that illiberal globalization, multipolarity, and rising nationalism
will define our future. Summers11 has argued that the world is entering
a long period of diminishing economic growth. He suggests that secular
stagnation “may be the defining macroeconomic challenge of our times.”
Julius Probst, in his recent assessment of Summers’ ideas, explains:
…rich countries are ageing as birth rates decline and people live longer.
This has pushed down real interest rates because investors think these
trends will mean they will make lower returns from investing in future,
making them more willing to accept a lower return on government debt
as a result.
Other factors that make investors similarly pessimistic include rising
global inequality and the slowdown in productivity growth…
This decline in real interest rates matters because economists believe
that to overcome an economic downturn, a central bank must drive down
the real interest rate to a certain level to encourage more spending and
investment… Because real interest rates are so low, Summers and his
supporters believe that the rate required to reach full employment is so
far into negative territory that it is effectively impossible.
…in the long run, more immigration might be a vital part of curing
secular stagnation. Summers also heavily prescribes increased government
spending, arguing that it might actually be more prudent than cutting back
26 M. F. OPPENHEIMER
– especially if the money is spent on infrastructure, education and research

and development.
Of course, governments in Europe and the US are instead trying to
shut their doors to migrants. And austerity policies have taken their toll on
infrastructure and public research. This looks set to ensure that the next
recession will be particularly nasty when it comes… Unless governments
change course radically, we could be in for a sobering period ahead.12
The rise of nationalism/populism is both cause and effect of this

economic outlook. Lower growth will make every aspect of the liberal
order more difficult to resuscitate post-Trump. Domestic politics will
become more polarized and dysfunctional, as competition for dimin-
ishing resources intensifies. International collaboration, ad hoc or through
institutions, will become politically toxic. Protectionism, in its multiple
forms, will make economic recovery from “secular stagnation” a heavy
lift, and the liberal hegemonic leadership and strong institutions that
limited the damage of previous downturns, will be unavailable. A clear
demonstration of this negative feedback loop is the economic damage
being inflicted on the world by Trump’s trade war with China, which—
despite the so-called phase one agreement—has predictably escalated from
negotiating tactic to imbedded reality, with no end in sight. In a world
already suffering from inadequate investment, the uncertainties gener-
ated by this confrontation will further curb the investments essential for
future growth. Another demonstration of the intersection of structural
forces is how populist-motivated controls on immigration (always a weak-
ness in the hyper-globalization narrative) deprives developed countries of
Summers’ recommended policy response to secular stagnation, which in
a more open world would be a win-win for rich and poor countries alike,
increasing wage rates and remittance revenues for the developing coun-
tries, replenishing the labor supply for rich countries experiencing low
birth rates.
Illiberal Globalization
Economic weakness and rising nationalism (along with multipolarity) will
not end globalization, but will profoundly alter its character and greatly
reduce its economic and political benefits. Liberal global institutions,
under American hegemony, have served multiple purposes, enabling
states to improve the quality of international relations and more fully
2 THE TURBULENT FUTURE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 27
satisfy the needs of their citizens, and provide companies with the legal
and institutional stability necessary to manage the inherent risks of global
investment. But under present and future conditions these institutions will
become the battlegrounds—and the victims—of geopolitical competition.
The Trump Administration’s frontal attack on multilateralism is but the
final nail in the coffin of the Bretton Woods system in trade and finance,
which has been in slow but accelerating decline since the end of the Cold
War. Future American leadership may embrace renewed collaboration in
global trade and finance, macroeconomic management, environmental
sustainability and the like, but repairing the damage requires the heroic
assumption that America’s own identity has not been fundamentally
altered by the Trump era (four years or eight matters here), and by the
internal and global forces that enabled his rise. The fact will remain that
a sizeable portion of the American electorate, and a monolithically pro-
Trump Republican Party, is committed to an illiberal future. And even
if the effects are transitory, the causes of weakening global collaboration
are structural, not subject to the efforts of some hypothetical future US
liberal leadership. It is clear that the US has lost respect among its rivals,
and trust among its allies. While its economic and military capacity is
still greatly superior to all others, its political dysfunction has diminished
its ability to convert this wealth into effective power.13 It will further-
more operate in a future system of diffusing material power, diverging
economic and political governance approaches, and rising nationalism.
Trump has promoted these forces, but did not invent them, and future
US Administrations will struggle to cope with them.
What will illiberal globalization look like? Consider recent events.
The instruments of globalization have been weaponized by strong states
in pursuit of their geopolitical objectives. This has turned the liberal
argument on behalf of globalization on its head. Instead of interde-
pendence as an unstoppable force pushing states toward collaboration
and convergence around market-friendly domestic policies, states are
exploiting interdependence to inflict harm on their adversaries, and even
on their allies. The increasing interaction across national boundaries that
globalization entails, now produces not harmonization and cooperation,
but friction and escalating trade and investment disputes.14 The Trump
Administration is in the lead here, but it is not alone. Trade and invest-
ment friction with China is the most obvious and damaging example,
precipitated by China’s long failure to conform to the World Trade
Organization (WTO) principles, now escalated by President Trump into
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
polymerization of the formaldehyd is almost entirely prevented, and a
dry gas is insured and given off at the pipe (h).
The room should be left closed overnight and thoroughly aired
thereafter. The bare floor must then be scrubbed with hot water and
soda and flushed with a three-per-cent carbolic-acid solution.
As little furniture as possible should be found in an operating
room, and this preferably of undecorated enameled iron.
Instrument Cabinet.—For the instruments and dressings there
should be a dust-proof cabinet of iron and glass, such as is shown in
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.—Instrument Cabinet.
Operating Table.—The operating table should be of like

construction and as plain as possible. Its top can be padded with
sterilized felt, protected from moisture by rubber sheets. A surgical
chair of plain construction might suffice, inasmuch as most plastic
operations cover but a small area and are usually about the head
and often performed under local anesthesia. A chair with head rest is
much more comfortable, adding much to the moral and physical
comfort of the then conscious patient. A very desirable chair is
shown in Fig. 5.
Fig. 5.—Operating Table.
Instrument Table.—An instrument table, such as is shown in the

next illustration, is quite necessary, upon which dressings and
instruments are laid during operation. In this the frame is of white
enameled iron and the top and shelf of plate glass.
Fig. 6.—Instrument Table.
Irrigator.—An irrigator is often of service, especially in washing

out the fine pieces of bone resulting from chiseling or drilling. In skin-
grafting it may be used with sterilized three-per-cent salt solution as
described later. The best irrigators are those of germ-proof or
ground-glass stopper type. They are suspended from the wall by
means of an iron bracket or pulley service or placed upon a movable
enameled stand as shown in Fig. 7.
Irritating antiseptic solutions are to be avoided, their especial
indication will be found under antiseptic care of wounds.
CARE OF INSTRUMENTS
All instruments should be of modern make, devoid of clefts or
grooves, and having separating locks when possible. Wooden or
ivory handles should be entirely discarded. They should first be
rendered free of dirt or dried blood by
scrubbing briskly with a stiff nailbrush and
hot water; then dried and placed in the
sterilizer. The immersed instruments are
boiled for five or ten minutes. There are
many of such sterilizing apparatuses to
be obtained, all made on the same plan,
however, and consist of a copper or brass
box and cover well nickel plated. Folding
legs are placed beneath. A perforated
tray is placed within for the immersion of
instruments. An alcohol lamp with
asbestos wick furnishes the heat.
One per cent of carbonate of soda
added to the water prevents them from
rusting. The simple subjection of
instruments to carbolic-acid solutions or
antiseptics of like nature is useless.
(Gärtner, Kümmel, Gutch, Redard, and
Davidsohn.)
From the sterilizer the instruments are
placed in a glass tray containing a one-
per-cent lysol solution. Knives, needles,
and scissors should be immersed in a
tray with alcohol, as a great number of
antiseptics destroy their cutting edges.
Glass or porcelain trays are best for this
purpose. A sterilized towel being placed
in the bottom of each for the better
placing of instruments.
Fig. 7.—Irrigator.
After operation all instruments should
again be scrubbed with soap and hot
water, immersed a moment in boiling
water or a jet of live steam, dried with an aseptic cloth, and returned
to the case.
A very effectual means of rendering instruments sterile is to place
them in a metal box and bake them in the ordinary oven (200° F.) for
one hour.
To preserve needles Dawbarn advises keeping them in a
saturated solution of washing soda. Albolene has an unpleasant
oiliness, but is otherwise good. Calcium chlorid in absolute alcohol is
efficacious, but expensive. All rust accumulating on instruments must
be carefully removed with fine emery cloth; this, however, is
unnecessary if the soda solution is used as previously mentioned. It
is well to occasionally dip the instruments (holding them with an
artery forceps) into boiling water as they are used during operation.
Fig. 8.—Instrument Sterilizer.
PREPARATION OF THE SURGEON AND

ASSISTANTS
Care of the Hands
The hands of the surgeon and his assistants must always be

thoroughly prepared before operation or dressing a wound. The
mere immersion of the hands into an antiseptic solution is not
sufficient to remove germ life. The oily secretions of the skin and its
folds, as well as the cleft about the nails and the nails themselves,
are common carriers of infection and are cleansed only by the
vigorous method of scrubbing with soap and water and then
rendered aseptic by the use of proper media.
The aseptic hospital washstand, as shown in Fig. 9, will be found
an ideal piece of furniture; it has a frame constructed of wrought iron,
white enameled. The top is of one-inch polished plate glass, with two
twelve-inch holes.
Fig. 9.—Aseptic Washstand.
The entire stand can be moved away from the wall, to permit of
thorough cleaning of basins, supply pipes, etc. The basins are the
best annealed glass, and are supported by nickel-plated traps, with
connections for vent pipes. The water supply is controlled by foot
valves, which enable the operator to draw either cold, medium, or
hot water at will. The waste is also controlled by a foot valve, as
shown.
The systematic law of cleansing the hands should be insisted
upon at all times. Rules for the method followed might be displayed
in abbreviated form in the operating room by glass or enameled
signs hung on the wall over the basin and reading as follows:
YOUR HANDS
I. Clean nails.
II. Scrub with very hot water and soap for five minutes.
III. Wipe in sterile towel.
IV. Brush with eighty per cent alcohol.
V. Dip into antiseptic solution.
Green soap is commonly used and is to be preferred to powdered

or cake soap. The powder cakes and clogs the container in damp
weather, while the latter collects impurities from the air. Synol soap,
also liquid, is perhaps the most ideal, a two per cent solution of
which forms an excellent lavage for cleaning instruments, as well as
washing down furniture in the operating room.
The brushes to be used are of the common wooden-back, hard-
bristle make, which can be boiled without injury. There should be
several of these, marked on their backs as desired, so that one
brush can be used for the one purpose only. In cleansing the hands,
the forearms, and even the elbows, should be similarly treated. After
scrubbing with soap, as directed, they are to be rinsed, dried with a
sterilized towel, again scrubbed with alcohol, and then dipped or
flushed with a bichlorid solution.
Gowns
No woolen garments should be allowed to come in contact with

the site of the operation, nor is it well to allow such material in the
operating room while working.
Freshly laundered linen gowns of Von Bergman’s pattern, reaching
to the shoes, should be worn. They should contain half sleeves and
be buttoned on the back. See Fig. 10. These may be sterilized in the
steam sterilizer or washed in one-per-cent soda solution. When
soiled or blood-stained they should be relaundered.
The operator may substitute the gown with a rubber apron of the
Triffe pattern, reaching as high as the collar, but continuous washing
quickly ruins them. See Fig. 11.
Fig. 10.—Von Bergman Operating
Gown.
Fig. 11.—Triffe Rubber Apron.
PREPARING THE PATIENT

General Preparation
The patient for all plastic operations should be carefully examined

as to general health and past history. His healing powers should be
at their best, as much depends on primary union. If he presents a
syphilitic history, it is well to place him under treatment, for a time, at
least, before an operation is undertaken. The bowels should be
regular. Sulphate of magnesium should be given each morning,
before breakfast, for at least two days prior to operating, while his
general condition may be improved by the employment of bitter and
alterative tonics. Nux vomica with tinct. cinchonæ com., associated
with essence of pepsin aromat., or lactopeptone, are very useful.
This treatment is also carried on for several days, post operatio.
The success of an operation depends, first, upon the selection of
the case; second, the selection of the method employed, and, third,
upon the hygiene under which the patient undergoes convalescence.
The patient must be given to understand, in many cases, that it is
often necessary to reoperate, even to the extent of seven or eight
operations, to bring about the desired result. The first result obtained
with many cosmetic operations is not at all gratifying to the patient,
and unless this is explained to him beforehand he may become
discouraged awaiting the next operation and disappear, thus losing
the opportunity of being pleased finally, while the surgeon is
misunderstood and underestimated by narrow-minded judges and
the ever-willing friendly advisers and critics—a consummation much
to be avoided.
Preparation of the Operative Field
The part to be operated upon should first be closely shaven. The

oily secretions of the area are next rubbed off with an absorbent
cotton sponge saturated with alcohol or ether. Next, the skin is
washed with hot water and soap or three-per-cent synol suds, then
rinsed, and finally rendered aseptic with a bichlorid solution.
If the operation is to be done about the face a rubber cap is so
adjusted as to cover the hair. If this is not obtainable sterilized
bandages can be employed.
In operations about mucous membranes, as in the nose and
mouth, the parts must be cleaned at short intervals with a solution of
permanganate of potash or boric acid. The teeth must be cleansed
with antiseptic soap, tartar is scraped off, and the mouth rinsed with
a proper disinfectant. The corrosive sublimate, or carbolated
solutions, owing to their toxic qualities, cannot be used. The
preparation of wounds for reoperation, or where an operation is
secondary to injury, is referred to later.
All clothing about the site of operation should be removed and
rubber cloth placed to surround the field and cover the clothing. This
should be covered again with sterilized towels. Everything that
touches the patient after this has been done should be aseptic;
indeed, hands employed during operation must be immersed from
time to time in 1-500 bichlorid solution, and allowed to remain wet.
CHAPTER III
REQUIREMENTS DURING OPERATION
SPONGES AND SPONGING

Natural or sea sponges are now little used in surgery, owing to
their peculiar cellular construction. They invite and readily retain
spores and germs, are difficult to clean, and require almost constant
attention to be at all safe.
Many methods for rendering these sponges aseptic have been
proposed, but at best the life of such a sponge is short and hardly
pays for the labor and time expended. The absorbing power of a
sponge is, of course, its essential quality. For plastic operations
sterilized absorbent cotton made into small balls answers every
purpose. These puffs of cotton are covered with gauze to prevent the
fraying out of the fibers. To further improve them, their centers may
be made up of cellulose or wood fiber. When an absorbent cotton
sponge is moistened and squeezed out it does not answer as well,
since its absorbing qualities are much reduced; the addition of the
other material overcomes this.
A much-used and inexpensive sponge having great absorbing
power is made in the form of a small compress of sterilized gauze
held together with one or two stitches of thread. All of the above
sponges are sterilized with the needed dressings and are burned
after use. When removed from the sterilizer they are placed in a
suitable basin containing six per cent sterilized salt water. It is well to
place the receptacle close by the assistant who is to sponge. An
enameled iron basin rack, as shown in Fig. 12, answers the purpose
best.
Fig. 12.—Basins and Rack.
The soiled sponges are thrown into a lower empty basin or one
placed at the operator’s feet. As they are removed from the solution
they are squeezed as dry as possible and pressed upon, rather than
wiped across, the operative field. It must be remembered that the
surgeon’s work must not be hampered by slow or inefficient
sponging, and that this procedure must be quick and timely. It is well
for the assistant to become accustomed to the habit of the operator.
The best assistant is one who has acquired a methodical and
regular manipulation, a result dependent upon constant individual
association; such a one is practically invaluable for the skillful
performance of plastic surgery. He becomes not only familiar with
the one thing, but cultivates a ready knowledge of the arrest of
hemorrhage by digital compression when hemostatic forceps would
hinder the ease of work, besides cultivating a happy manner of
holding retractors or spreading the edges of the incisions with the
free hand. As in most of these operations hemorrhage cannot be
controlled by the so-called bloodless method. The assistant must
control the constant oozing by the gentle pressure of the sponge
quickly applied at short intervals. When the sponges are squeezed
out in salt solution, as hot as the hand will bear comfortably, capillary
oozing is more readily overcome.
STERILIZATION OF DRESSINGS
All dressings to be used in covering wounds, post operatio, or
otherwise, must be as scrupulously clean and free from infection as
the hands and the instruments of the operator. This is done by
means of sterilization by dry heat or steam under pressure. For all
minor cases, small apparatuses only are needed. They are usually
made of copper, often nickel-plated, and so constructed as to contain
a lower perforated instrument tray and another, placed above it, for
dressings. The two are fitted into an outer copper receptacle with
snugly fitting cover. A folding stand is furnished upon which this
arrangement is placed, and an alcohol lamp with asbestos wick
furnishes the heating power. The lower tray is covered with water
which, by boiling, fills the upper compartment with steam evenly
distributed and with sufficient pressure to accomplish sterilization in
from thirty to sixty minutes. Metal hooks are provided with which the
trays can be removed. A complete and compact outfit, as designed
by Willy Meyer, is shown in Fig. 13.
In the above sterilizer, or in those of similar type, there is naturally
more or less saturation of the dressings and the possibility, in the
event of the entire conversion of the water contained therein into
steam, of injuring the instruments by excessive heat. To overcome
this defect the Wallace sterilizer may be advantageously employed.
Fig. 13.—Willy Meyer Sterilizer.
Fig. 14.—Wallace Sterilizer.
Wallace Sterilizer.—Its chief feature is the addition of a reservoir

fitting with the separated sterilizer into the outer body. See Fig. 14.
This reservoir automatically regulates the water and steam supply. It
is filled with water and inserted into the compartment provided for
and adjoining the sterilizer. Through an opening in the bottom the
water is permitted to escape into the sterilizer until the bottom of the
latter is covered to a depth of ⅛ inch. As the heat is applied from the
alcohol lamp this film of water is rapidly converted into steam.
The dressings arranged in the large tray are placed in the sterilizer
and the supply of steam is maintained through the constant and
steady flow of water from the reservoir, which compensates the
evaporation in the sterilizer. In about twenty minutes the formation of
steam in the top of the reservoir exerts sufficient pressure to force all
the boiling water from the reservoir into the sterilizer to the depth of
about 1½ inches. The tray of instruments is now inserted and the
process continued for another ten minutes. Much less heat is
required with this apparatus than with those of ordinary type, while
sterilization can be continued uninterruptedly for one and one half
hours, if need be.
Sprague Sterilizer.—The most perfect sterilizer is that of the
Sprague type, in which a dry chamber is surrounded by steam under
pressure. The apparatus is shown in Fig. 15.
Fig. 15.—Sprague Type of
Sterilizer.
Its cylindrical chamber is surrounded by two heavy copper shells,

the space between which is occupied by the water. This
compartment is entirely shut off from the sterilizing chamber, and as
the steam is generated, the inner, or sterilizing, chamber becomes
heated to a degree nearly equal to that of the steam in the
surrounding cylinder; this prevents any condensation of steam taking
place in the dressings. By opening the lever-handled valve at the
bottom of the sterilizer in the rear, and the valve to the right, on top of
the sterilizer, and allowing them to remain open for a space of four or
five minutes, a vacuum is formed in the sterilizing chamber. These
two valves are then closed, the lower one first, and the steam from
the outer cylinder is allowed to enter the chamber, by opening the left
valve on top.
The contents should be allowed to sterilize for twenty or twenty-
five minutes under a pressure of fifteen pounds. Then close the
steam-supply valve; open the vacuum valve (right) and the lever-
handled valve at the bottom; leave these open about the same time
as in creating a vacuum at the beginning of the process; close both
valves, then open the air-filter valve on the door, in order to break the
vacuum; the door can then be opened and the dressings be taken
out dry and absolutely sterile.
The steam-safety valve on this sterilizer is set at seventeen
pounds, but it can easily be regulated should a higher or lower
pressure be desired. The door used on this apparatus has no
packing of rubber or other soft material which wears or shrinks in
time, a steam-tight joint being formed by the bringing together of two
plane metal faces on the door and sterilizer head. The door hinge is
so made that these parts are bound to come together properly,
without the use of excessive caution. Springs on such doors are
liable to get out of order or need replacing, and are avoided in this
apparatus. All that is necessary to lock or unlock the door is to turn
the large hand wheel on the front; the locking levers then work
automatically. These sterilizers are arranged for both gas and steam
heat.
Sterilizing Plant.—For the ideal operating room the entire
sterilizing plant can be had in combined form, as shown in Fig. 16. It
consists of a dry-heat dressing apparatus, just described, water and
instrument sterilizers, all mounted on a white enameled, tubular,
wrought-iron frame. The chamber of the dressing sterilizer is 8½ by
19 inches. The water sterilizer has a capacity of six gallons in each
tank and is fitted with natural stone filters, thermometer, water
gauge, safety valve, etc. The size of the instrument sterilizer is 8 by
15 inches and 6 inches deep, with two trays. Each apparatus in the
above can be used independently of the other, all being arranged for
gas-heating.
Fig. 16.—Sterilizing Plant.
Dressing Cases.—All dressings should be sterilized immediately

before operation, and not laid away for later use, as often done. As
the aseptic material is taken from the sterilizer it is to be placed in
glass cases provided therefor, from which they are removed, as
needed, during the operation.
A simple glass case, as shown in Fig. 17, may be used, or, better
still, the same can be obtained in combination with an instrument
table, as shown in Fig. 18.

The Future of Global Affairs Managing Discontinuity Disruption and Destruction 1St Ed Edition Christopher Ankersen Full Chapter PDF

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

The Future of Global Affairs Managing Discontinuity Disruption and Destruction 1St Ed Edition Christopher Ankersen Full Chapter PDF

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

The Future of Global Affairs: Managing

Discontinuity, Disruption and

Enlightenment in an Age of Destruction: Intellectuals,

Global Business in the Age of Destruction and

The Handbook of Global Shadow Banking, Volume II: The

US Presidents and the Destruction of the Native

International Politics: Power and Purpose in Global

Signals: The 27 Trends Defining the Future of the

Bernard Shaw and Modern Advertising 1st ed. Edition

The Future of Indian Banking 1st ed. 2022 Edition

“The Future of Global Affairs is an exciting and balanced contribution to the

“What is the future of the state? Is multilateralism overrated as an answer to

The Future of Global

ISBN 978-3-030-56469-8 ISBN 978-3-030-56470-4 (eBook)

Cover image: Felix Lipov/Alamy Stock Photo

called a genocide by many—where peacekeepers were present and did not

Alliance, and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative have repre-

Christchurch, New Zealand Helen Clark

Despite criticism from traditionalists, by 2004, we felt the need to

Relations, New York University; Stacey Connaughton, Director, The

1 Introduction: Navigating Unchartered Waters 1

2 The Turbulent Future of International Relations 23

3 A Kaleidoscopic Future: The State and Assemblages

4 The Empiricism Strikes Back: Strategies for Avoiding

5 Toward an Enlightened Form of Capitalism:

6 International Justice and the International Criminal

7 Feminist Principles in Global Affairs: Undiplomatic

8 Taking Conflict Transformation Education Seriously 175

9 A Changing Agenda for International Development 199

10 Cyber Competition and Global Stability 223

11 The Upending of the Geopolitics of Energy:

12 The Future of Climate Action: From Systems Change

13 The United Nations: Managing Unrealistic

Christopher Ankersen is a Clinical Associate Professor at the Center for

interests include public opinion and experimental methodology. His

Fig. 4.1 Ideological differences in believing an unsupported claim

Table 4.1 A limited interest in examining evidence 82

Introduction: Navigating Unchartered Waters

Christopher Ankersen and Waheguru Pal Singh Sidhu

C. Ankersen (B) · W. P. S. Sidhu

© The Author(s) 2021 1

from Afghanistan to the Philippines to Somalia. In most of these conflicts

a billion, allowing an unprecedented flow of information—and disinfor-

stakeholders, including, civil society, private sector, rich foundations and

of global affairs (as the sum of real-world activity) requires a multidimen-

• Whose ideas matter in Global Affairs?

Before tackling those questions, though, it is worthwhile spending time

What Is Global Affairs?

assigning people roles as victims, potential customers, likely terrorists, or

Power, State, and System

have the wherewithal to achieve change on their own, or to influence

uneven, however. A slim majority of Britons appear to have lost faith in

How Do We Understand the Future?

In a related sense, we must avoid the temptation of believing that time

Disruption, Discontinuity, and Destruction

powers might result in cataclysmic global destruction, and the inability

Overview of the Book

he predicts, will not be harmonious, though: inclusive means additive, not

disruptions—in which the only constant is change—individuals and orga-

can bring diplomatic isolation or trigger domestic protest since it may

Rudbeck explores the changing patterns of core development issues and

the multilateral center of global affairs. Indeed, in spite of threats from

4. Report of the Secretary-General on SDG Progress 2019, Special Edition.