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The Political Economy
of Sanctions: Resilience
and Transformation in
Russia and Iran
Ksenia Kirkham
International Political Economy Series
Series Editor
Timothy M. Shaw , University of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, USA;
Emeritus Professor, University of London, London, UK
The global political economy is in flux as a series of cumulative crises
impacts its organization and governance. The IPE series has tracked its
development in both analysis and structure over the last three decades.
It has always had a concentration on the global South. Now the South
increasingly challenges the North as the centre of development, also
reflected in a growing number of submissions and publications on
indebted Eurozone economies in Southern Europe. An indispensable
resource for scholars and researchers, the series examines a variety of capi-
talisms and connections by focusing on emerging economies, companies
and sectors, debates and policies. It informs diverse policy communities
as the established trans-Atlantic North declines and ’the rest’, especially
the BRICS, rise.
NOW INDEXED ON SCOPUS!
Ksenia Kirkham
The Political
Economy
of Sanctions:
Resilience
and Transformation
in Russia and Iran
Ksenia Kirkham
Department of War Studies
King’s College London
London, UK
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer
Nature Switzerland AG 2022
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights
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Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Welfare State Theories and IPE 5
1.2 The Political Economy of Sanctions 7
1.3 The Political Economy of Russia and Iran 10
1.4 Book Outline 13
References 17
v
vi CONTENTS
Appendices 401
Bibliography 419
Index 455
List of Figures
ix
x LIST OF FIGURES
xi
CHAPTER 1
Introduction
Sanctions in IPE
2016; Jessop 2016; Offe 1985). However, it is the first attempt to inte-
grate welfare state research with structural analyses of counter-hegemonic
evolution in the international system and with global power dynamics.
This book closes this gap by developing a theoretical framework for
analysing counter-hegemonic mechanisms of the welfare state, and by
applying this framework to the cases of Russia and Iran under sanctions.
The contrast between Lockean heartland and Hobbesian contender states
provides a contextual ground for assessing the following questions:
1981; Jessop 1982; Poulantzas 1974, and many more) to the notion
of welfare, which becomes a central binding category of the state as an
‘integral’ entity. The WSR approach reconciles the views concerning the
contentious concept of the state in contemporary IPE thought, where
‘many Gramscis are on offer’ (Germain and Kenny 1998: 8). WSR does
not position itself as an overwhelming substitution for the theory of
the state and rejects the possibility of the development of a general,
‘fully determinate’ theory, as a reductionism of one kind or another is
inevitable’ (Jessop 1982: 211). It rather proposes the ‘method of articu-
lation’, according to which the analysis of the state is set in a particular
historical conjuncture (such as economic sanctions) to understand the
conditions under which specific causal chains and contradictions (the
mechanisms of sanctions) might produce ‘contingently necessary effects’,
the welfare state regime outcomes (the counter-hegemonic mechanisms).
Moreover, it helps to integrate and to further develop the most valu-
able functionalist and power resource insights into the neo-Gramscian
dimension, which parallels with Robert Cox’s concept of a ‘historic
bloc’ that presents structural power as a blend of three categories of
‘potentials’—material capabilities, ideas and institutions (Cox 1981: 136).
The theoretical merger proceeds through a multidimensional concept
of ‘Self-protection of society’ (in Part I), which conflates power struc-
tures (institutional, material and cultural) with welfare state functions
(de-commodifying, redistributive and connecting) to arrive at the final
point of theoretical inquiry—counter-hegemonic mechanisms of the WSR
that constitute welfare state regime reproduction. Van der Pijl’s afore-
mentioned conception of a geopolitical dialectic between a ‘Lockean
heartland’ and ‘Hobbesian contender states’ offers the most propitious
point of departure for this, but WSR amplifies and extends the concep-
tion of the welfare state implied therein. Although van der Pijl advances
in capturing the main dynamics of the internal evolution of states, some-
times this happens at the expense of overlooking the countertendencies.
This book covers this, first, by viewing the heartland as heterogeneous
and internally variegated, which at times of crises perhaps has become
more Hobbesian, and second, by suggesting that the nature of contender
states might vary a lot owing to the particularities of their state–society
configurations.
1 INTRODUCTION 7
Ukraine after the break-up of the Soviet Union. These historical evidences
made the author call Ukraine the ‘victim of geopolitics’ (ibid.: 141).
There is no agreement on the effects of sanctions on Russia, either.
As in the literature on Iran, some authors attribute the negative impacts
of the sanctions to government economic regulation flaws: (1) over-
reliance on oil revenues amid technological retardation of some upstream
and downstream oil and gas companies, highly dependent on the export
of pumping equipment, catalysts and applied software (import share of
50–80%) (Nureev and Busygin 2017), (2) insufficient economic diver-
sification, corruption, uncompetitive subsidised industries, a regressive
tax regime, the lack of foreign investment, financial and technological
shortcomings and the brain drain (Golikova and Kuznetsov 2017), (3)
growing budget financing of non-productive operating expenses (i.e. on
state administration, defence, law and order) that diverts resources away
from industrial modernisation and innovation (Mau and Leonard 2017).
However, a growing number of papers underline positive effects of sanc-
tions and counter-sanctions on the Russian economy. As observed by
Roger Munnings, the chairman of the Board of Russo-British Chamber
of Commerce (RBCC), sanctions ‘initially had the effect of depressing
economic growth in Russia, particularly as a result of limiting liquidity in
the economy through restricted availability of short and long term credits
for companies’, but later ‘the Russian corporate sector and banking system
has largely worked through this issue’, and ‘there has been the positive
effect of localisation of manufacture of goods and provision of services
provoking a more diversified and balanced economy than hitherto and
one in which small and medium sized enterprises have the opportunity to
prosper’.2 In fact, in the agricultural sector, as in some other sectors of
economy, import substitution policies have been successful in ensuring
the country’s security of food supplies (Polyanin and Moiseev 2016).
Richard Connolly believes that the adaptation to sanctions in Russia was
quite effective, because it was ‘overwhelmingly state-led’—permitting the
country’s leader to promptly utilise institutional, financial and diplomatic
tools and reallocate resources to minimise the negative impact of sanctions
(Connolly 2018: 189). The author rightfully points to ‘modification’ and
diversification of Russia’s foreign policy, import substitution and ‘Russifi-
cation’ of the military and the energy sectors, as well as to ‘sanitisation’
and ‘securitisation’ of the financial sector and other adaptive fiscal and
monetary measures that permitted the country to evade a ‘full-blown
credit crunch’ (ibid.) For some, due to Russia’s ‘economic resilience’
sanctions have not only failed to achieve their goals, i.e. regime change
and ‘democratisation’, but have instead lead to the regime’s empower-
ment, which might contribute to a contender geopolitical posture and to
the consolidation of the regime (Littlejohn 2018; Volodin 2018).
Overall, there are three main flaws in the current accounts analysing the
‘effects’ of sanctions on the Russian and Iranian political economy that
explain why the mechanisms of sanctions, as well as CHMs that repro-
duce and protect the systems from collapse, remain underexplored. First,
current accounts aim to solve a problem of ‘if sanctions work’, not to
understand in what sense they might transform current socio-economic
arrangements. Second, they do not explicitly recognise the contradictory
nature of the impact of sanctions on the Russian and Iranian political
economy, which explains why the views concerning the effects of sanc-
tions appear so polarised. Third, Russia and Iran are analysed as entities,
separate from the processes that evolve in the global political economy.
Therefore, to better define the mechanisms, the theoretical scope of the
accounts on the effects of sanctions should be widened with reference to
the contradictory nature of the welfare state development and to geopo-
litical forces other than the sanctions themselves. The inclusion of an
analysis of geopolitical forces in relation to counter-hegemonic mecha-
nisms, along with a supranational dimension in the concept of the welfare
state regime, shall complement the analysis.
three (a, b, c) are the variables that constitute the institutional mecha-
nisms of social control, in an attempt to harmonise religion, democracy
and private property.
Part III considers how the counter-hegemonic structural mode of
Russia and Iran has been secured via enhancing the material capacity
and future potential of the socio-economic base, in the face of uneven
development of global capitalism and the country’s dependence on global
markets. In both Russia and Iran, financial consolidation, the course of
technological modernisation, economic diversification and active region-
alism have been productive steps in building up the material capacity of
the regime. However, the reliance of large businesses on state support and
‘patron–client’ relationships ultimately limits business efficiency, induces
corruption and in some cases disrupts incentives for creativity and inno-
vation. The WSR material capabilities are determined by: (a) households’
dependence on the market in overall welfare coverage (decommodifi-
cation); (b) wealth creation and wealth distribution: the poverty and
inequality dynamics (primary and secondary wealth distribution); and (c)
formal and inf ormal channels for cooperation and investment opportuni-
ties (connection). All three (a, b, c) constitute material capabilities of the
WSR. The processes, generated from the material power structure of the
WSR triggered the following counter-hegemonic mechanisms, to name
a few: modernisation of the economy, import substitution programs,
counter-sanctions, the optimisation of socio-economic policies, including
some austerity measures, further consolidation of the budgetary system
(intra-budgetary redistribution), enhanced state control over capital flows,
tax reforms, with the aim of creating fiscal stimuli for technological
modernisation and domestic demand formation.
Part IV examines the cultural power structure of the welfare state
regime that corresponds to the ability of contender states to transform
the modalities of social behaviour, practices, personal orientation and
attitudes. The ideology of statecraft in Russia, with its discourse of ‘oth-
erness’ and new cadre formation, and Shia political system in Iran, with
its communitarian postulates, partially helped to consolidate society at
the macro-level and to obtain public support for economic centralisa-
tion. However, civil society hierarchy, familialism and other forms of
informal relationships in both states disrupt labour bargaining power
and cohesion, while further centralisation of control over civil society
institutions might make state–civil society dialogue excessively bureau-
cratised and inflexible. The analysis is focused on the following cultural
16 K. KIRKHAM
References
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Althusser, Louis. 1969. For Marx. Harmondsworth. Harmondsworth: Penguin
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Baldwin, Peter. 1996. “Can We Define a European Welfare State Model?
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18 K. KIRKHAM
Abstract Part I develops the ground for the theoretical merger and
shows how it is correlated to the structure of the empirical Parts II, III
and IV, devoted to institutional, material and cultural capabilities of the
WSR, consequently. The welfare state regime approach (WSR) is consid-
ered both a theoretical framework and a powerful tool for analysing
counter-hegemonic mechanisms. Chapter 2 examines the welfare state
regime as a theoretical account, following the consistent path from func-
tionalists, structuralist accounts, from Wood and Gough’s Institutional
responsibility matrix to the neo-Gramscian analysis of counter-hegemony.
Chapter 3 introduces a reverse logical sequence, from Gramsci to welfare,
to justify the centrality of the concept of WSR within the moment of
sanctions as a ‘situation’ in the Gramscian sense. This self-reinforcing
trajectory completes the theoretical consolidation between the Gramscian
and welfare state accounts arriving at the merger point—the concept of
the Self-protection of society,1 gradually developed and applied throughout
core empirical chapters.
Introduction to Part I
Theoretical identification departs from existing mainstream and critical
welfare state theories, to consider what insights could be helpful for
defining the mechanisms of sanctions, and consequently, the counter-
hegemonic settings of Russia and Iran. The most consistent subdivision of
welfare theories was offered by Ian Gough, who divided them into ‘eco-
nomic theories of government policy’, ‘pluralist theories of policymaking’
and ‘functionalist theories of the welfare state’ by simply following the
logic of their scientific genesis—economics (classical liberals), political
science and sociology, respectively. As the capitalist system has expanded,
‘globalised’ and became more complex, so have the theories, and these
boundaries have become blurred.
Classical liberals (‘economic theorists’) are located further away than
other welfare state theories from the effective conceptualisation of the
counter-hegemonic mechanisms, as the analysis of economic develop-
ment is isolated from ‘social relations and from specific social structures’
(Gough 1979: 6). Also, transnational forces are ignored, even when
some authors refer to a global dimension when analysing integration and
Europeanisation (Kvist and Saari 2007), or globalisation (Deacon 2007;
Swank 2005), the interrelation between transnational forces and welfare
state regimes (global dimension) remained unformulated. This is because
liberal accounts tend to subjectify the evolution of capitalism. For them,
the alteration of attitudes in the wake of technological progress is the main
driving force behind welfare state evolution rather than increasing needs
of the global capitalist system to sustain social reproduction as the result
of its expanded exploitative powers. Richard Titmuss, who examined the
principle of universalism as an outcome of the horrifying experience of
more of a century of ‘turmoil, revolution, war and change’ believed that
the changing philosophy of welfare in the minds of people, the fear of the
risk of military conflict and mass destruction, rather the changing forces
of production lead to the emergence of the welfare state, as the base for
prevention of ‘the vicious descending spiral of poverty, disease, neglect,
illiteracy and destitution’ (Titmuss 1958). As a result, when analysing the
welfare state, classical liberals mainly focus on the change in public senti-
ment towards poverty, the development of welfare philosophies, and the
PART I: THEORETICAL IDENTIFICATION … 23
growth (Kerr et al. 1960) fails to explain the diversities within the welfare
state regimes of similar economically developed states, and most impor-
tantly, do not investigate the mechanisms of transformation, central to
the understanding of the CHMs and the mechanisms of sanctions, aimed
at breaking these counter-hegemonic settings. Furthermore, the ‘mod-
ernisation’ thesis, the most prominent of its time, maintains that the
transformation of the population from ‘subjects’ to ‘citizens’ with the
assistance of the welfare state was necessary for the formation of a system
of social equality based on civil rights (Marshall 1950). The mechanisms
of change—the development of social rights—however, were invalidated
by the effects of market-generated inequalities. A smooth transition to a
socially just society, which the modernisation theory proposes, is further
challenged by the Korpi’s power resource model, which places the welfare
state in the battlefield of social classes, mobilised through distributive
processes within society (Korpi 1983, 1989). Despite being criticised for
downplaying the role of the middle class in its analysis of social democra-
cies (Baldwin 1996), power resource theory introduced useful analytical
insights insofar as it stresses the importance of considering the balance
of class power as a determinative for social reforms. Esping-Andersen
made a considerable step forward in the conceptualisation of the welfare
state by introducing the parameters of commodification and stratifica-
tion into Korpi’s power resource model. These key indicators are central
to his genuine typological division of Western capitalist societies into
conservative, liberal and social democratic (Esping-Andersen 1990).
To sum up, functionalist theories and power resource accounts provide
us with important functional dimensions that would be incorporated in
the welfare state regime approach. However, there are three reasons why
the capacity of mainstream theories to identify counter-hegemonic mecha-
nisms of welfare state regimes is limited. First, such theoretical approaches
suffer from narrowness, ‘fatally weakened by the insistence on either
the objective or the subjective element in understanding human history’
(Gough 1979: 10). Second, the underlying logics of most functionalist,
structuralist or classical economic welfare state theories, can explain some
aspects of the welfare state’s evolution, but have not been capable of sepa-
rating internal and external mechanisms for change and differentiation,
an ‘immense diversity of social policies which any comparative survey
will reveal’ (Gough 1979: 9). Third, mainstream welfare state theories
consider transnational forces as an isolated parameter that might affect
the formation of the welfare state, but they never see global dimension as
26 PART I: THEORETICAL IDENTIFICATION …
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CHAPTER 2