PROBABILITY AND

STATISTICS

Effect of
temperature
variation on Bee
Colonies
using Correlation and Linear regression
 Problem Statement

Problem: Investigate how climate-induced temperature changes affect bee colonies.

Objective: Understand the correlation between temperature fluctuations and bee

population dynamics.

Impact: To explain real life impact of climate change on agricultural practices and human
well-being.
 Importance

Bees play a crucial role in pollination, which is vital for agriculture and ecosystem health.

Predicting how climate change affects bee populations helps in implementing

conservation strategies.
 Importance

Ecosystem Health:
1. Bees serve as keystone species in terrestrial ecosystems.
2. They facilitate pollination of a wide range of plant species.
3. Pollination supports growth of fruits, vegetables, nuts, and seeds.
4. Contributes to biodiversity and stability of ecosystems.
Addressing the Problem
By employing correlation and regression
methods, we can quantify the relationship
between bee colony populations and local
temperature, identify patterns, and make
predictions to better understand how
climate change may impact bee
populations in the future.
 Assumptions

Linearity:
The relationship between the temperature (independent variable) and bee colony changes
(dependent variable) is linear.

Independence of Errors:
The errors (residuals) are independent of each other.

Constant Variance:
The variance of the errors is constant across all levels of the independent variable.

Random Sampling:
The data is a random sample from the population of interest.
 Data Source

Source 1 :
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-
series/10/tavg/12/1/2010-2016?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000

Source 2 :
https://data.world/login?next=%2Fmakeovermonday%2F2018w18-bee-colony-
loss%2Fworkspace%2Ffile%3Ffilename%3DBee%2BColony%2BLoss.xlsx

Source 3 :
https://www.hiveandkeeper.com/pages/what-is-good-weather-for-bees-1
 Data Preparation

1) Gather data on bee colony populations and local temperature measurements for different
geographical regions over multiple years.
2) Organize the data into a tabular format with columns representing the year, bee colony
populations, and local temperature values.
3) Correlation Analysis:
4) Calculate the correlation coefficient (Pearson's correlation) between bee colony
populations and local temperature for each region separately.
 Data Preparation

5) Use the formula for Pearson's correlation coefficient: 𝑟=𝑛(∑𝑥𝑦)−(∑𝑥)(∑𝑦)[𝑛∑𝑥2−(∑𝑥)2][𝑛∑𝑦2−(∑𝑦)2]r=

[n∑x2−(∑x)2][n∑y2−(∑y)2]​n(∑xy)−(∑x)(∑y)​where 𝑛n is the number of data points, 𝑥x is the deviation of
each bee colony population value from its mean, 𝑦y is the deviation of each temperature value
from its mean, ∑∑ denotes summation, and 𝑥𝑦xy represents the product of the deviations.

6)Plot time series graphs of bee colony population changes and temperature

7) Exploratory Data analysis (state wise)

 Pearson Correlation
Coefficient

Assessing the relationship between temperature and bee colony changes.

Identifying whether temperature fluctuations impact bee populations.

Used the formula for Pearson's correlation coefficient: 𝑟=𝑛(∑𝑥𝑦)−(∑𝑥)(∑𝑦)[𝑛∑𝑥2−(∑𝑥)2][𝑛∑𝑦2−(∑𝑦)2]r=[n∑x2−

(∑x)2][n∑y2−(∑y)2]​n(∑xy)−(∑x)(∑y)​where 𝑛n is the number of data points, 𝑥x is the deviation of each bee

colony population value from its mean, 𝑦y is the deviation of each temperature value from its mean, ∑∑

denotes summation, and 𝑥𝑦xy represents the product of the deviations.

Correlation Matrix
Correlation Matrix
Correlation Matrix
Time Series Analysis
Time Series Analysis
Time Series Analysis
Interpretation
Thank You !