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25-11-11 Raymond James Research
25-11-11 Raymond James Research
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Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 12 and Analyst Certification on page 13.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Recent Earnings
THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS Raymond James vs. Consensus
Rep'd Company Symbol Exch YE Sector Industry Reporting Date Crocodile Gold Corp. Geologix Explorations Inc. Omni-Lite Industries U.S. Geothermal Orvana Minerals Corp. PetroAmerica Oil Corp. Suroco Energy ArPetrol Ltd. Petronova Inc. Zodiac Exploration Inc. CRK GIX OML GTH | HTM ORV PTA SRN RPT PNA ZEX T T V T|A T V V V V V Dec Dec Dec Mar Sep Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mining Mining Industrial Technology Mining Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Precious Metals Precious Metals Transportation Alt Energy | Clean Tech Precious Metals Intl Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Jr Oil & Gas Producers 18-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 21-Nov-11 24-Nov-11 25-Nov-11 25-Nov-11 25-Nov-11 w/o w/o w/o w/o w/o w/o am w/o w/o am GB GB SH SL GB RK RK RK RK JB Time Analyst RJ Estimate -$0.01 -$0.01 $0.03 -$0.01 $0.06 C$0.00 US$0.04 C$0.00 -US$0.01 $0.00 Consensus Estimate -$0.01 -$0.01 $0.03 -$0.01 $0.04 na US$0.05 na na $0.00 RJ/Cons Difference $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.03 na -US$0.01 na na $0.00 Actual Reported
Porto Energy Corp. ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. WesternZagros Resources Novus Energy Inc. Conifex Timber Inc. Orezone Resources Yangarra Resources Ltd. Pan Orient Energy Corp
V V V V V T V V
Intl Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Jr Oil & Gas Building Materials Precious Metals Jr Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas
RK RK RK LM DS BH LM RK
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research
Published by Raymond James Ltd
Action
We reiterate our Outperform rating and our C$1.90 target price.
Analysis
Development of the Boleo copper-cobalt-zinc project in Mexico is progressing on schedule and on budget, and we continue to expect initial metal production in 1Q13. Updates for the various elements of the project are as follows: Construction The building of the mine camp and on-site laboratories has been completed, as has the engineering design for the port facility. Earthworks at the plant site are nearing completion, and construction of the concrete foundations for the 60 metre diameter high-rate thickeners, acid tanks, leach tanks, and the mine maintenance and milling facilities is underway. By the end of 2011 management expects to have its initial power plant operational, and to have received the grinding mills and scrubbers for the process plant. Mining Approximately 400 tonnes of ore has been mined underground, thus far in the process of safety and operator skills training by the underground mining teams. 130,000 tonnes of ore has been stockpiled from surface mining activity. The company aims to have a 1 mln tonne ore stockpile by the time the process plant starts in 1Q13. Drilling 2,100 metres have been drilled out of a 3,600 metre drill program to explore for additional reserves and upgrade some of the Inferred resources. We expect the first assay results from drilling in Manto 4 in 1Q12. The Boleo deposit has exploration upside at depth (the deposit has generally not been drilled extensively in Manto 4, particularly down-dip, or in the southern extensions of Mantos 1 and 3). Boleo is a sedimentary deposit with seven flatlying and shallow mantos.
Valuation
Baja is currently trading at a P/NAV of 0.31x. Our target price of C$1.90 is based on a 0.70x multiple applied to our NAV/share of C$2.62 (in-line with risk and liquidity-adjusted historic developer multiples).
EPS 2010A 2011E 2011E 2012E 2012E 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Mar Jun Sep Dec C$(0.01) C$(0.02) C$(0.01) C$(0.32) (0.13)A (0.02)A (0.01) (0.02) (0.13)A (0.02)A 0.16A (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) Full Year C$(0.48) (0.17) 0.02 (0.10) (0.10) Revenues (mln) NA NA NA NA NA NAV
2.66 2.62 NA NA
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research
Published by Raymond James Ltd
Action
We reiterate our Outperform rating and our C$2.55 target price.
Target Price (6-12 mos): Current Price ( Nov-24-11 ) Total Return to Target 52-Week Range Market Data Market Capitalization (mln) Current Net Debt (mln) Enterprise Value (mln) Shares Outstanding (mln, basic) Average Daily Volume (000s) Dividend/Yield Key Financial Metrics 2010A P/E NA P/NAV EBITDA (mln) US$(1)
Analysis
Candente announced scope changes to the design for Caariaco Norte, as well as the timeline for the resumption of drilling and the Feasibility Study. Mill size increase In Jun-2011 Candente announced that a trade-off study was being conducted to assess the optimal mining and processing rate for Caariaco Norte. The company has now confirmed that the Feasibility Study will be based on a throughput rate of 100,000 to 110,000 tonnes/day (greater than the 95,000 tonnes/day originally envisioned). New tailings location The Feasibility Study will incorporate a new location for the tailings storage than what was outlined in the Pre-Feasibility Study Progress Report (PFSPR). From our discussion with management the optimal tailings location is now in a ravine adjacent to the Caariaco Sur exploration target. Access road and power line route The preferred mine access road and power line route is now to the south of the Caariaco property, and follows the current access road. This route has been deemed optimal due to a shorter concentrate haul distance to the port at Eten, Peru, anticipated lower operating costs, and simpler logistics for power line construction. Delay to surface rights agreement; but Feasibility Study still expected in 3Q12 We previously published that a local community vote on a 3-year surface rights access agreement with Candente was to be held on Nov-29-11. It now appears that this event has been delayed. No specific alternative date has been set, but management remains confident of resuming drilling activity in 1Q12. We continue to expect the completion of the Feasibility Study in 3Q12.
2012E NA na US$(5)
Company Description Candente Copper Corp. is developing the 100%-owned Caariaco copper project in Northern Peru where drilling and feasibility studies are underway.
Valuation
Candente Copper is currently trading at a P/NAV of 0.24x. Our target price of C$2.55 is based on a 0.50x multiple applied to our NAV/share of C$5.25 (in-line with risk and liquidity-adjusted historic developer multiples).
EPS 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full Mar Jun Sep Dec Year 2010A US$0.00 US$0.00 US$(0.01) US$(0.01) US$(0.02) 2011E (0.01)A (0.01)A 0.00 0.00 (0.03) 2011E (0.01)A (0.01)A 0.00A (0.01) (0.03) 2012E (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.06) 2012E (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.06) Revenue (mln) NA NA NA NA NA NAV
5.24 5.25 na na
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research
Published by Raymond James Ltd
Action
Yangarra has outlined an aggressive development program for its deep basin assets in 2012. We anticipate the company will require a healthy increase to its credit lines to accommodate this, however the outlook for the companys growth profile remains strong. We are maintaining our Outperform rating and $0.75 target price.
Analysis
Yangarra pre-released actual 3Q11 average production of 1,253 boe/d (1,209 boe/d net of royalty income), however the company beat our cash flow per share estimate of $0.03, coming in at $0.04 on the back of markedly lower operating costs and realized hedging gains. The company accelerated field activity in 3Q11, spending $19 mln and bringing total wells drilled since March, 2010 to 30 (18.3 net). This includes 13 (7.5 net) Glauconite wells and 12 (6.6 net) Cardium wells. For the remainder of 2011, Yangarra plans to complete 8 (1.8 net) additional wells and expects to meet its 2011 exit target of 2,500 boe/d. Current production is at 1,850 boe/d, not including 650 boe/d of behind volumes (compared to the October operational update of 1,800 boe/d with 800 boe/d of behind pipe volumes). Yangarra also announced its initial 2012E capital program and guidance. The company expects to spend $50 mln, drilling 22 (11.3 net) wells (weighted 85% to the Glauconite and Cardium) and achieve average production for the year of 2,500 to 3,000 boe/d. We have adjusted our model to reflect this budget, however we note that this spending profile results in 2012E exit net debt of $43 mln, compared to the companys current bank lines of $32 mln. At this point, we believe that an updated reserve report (expected by March 2012) will provide the basis for another bank line increase to cover the capital requirements, but failing this we will update our assumptions accordingly.
Valuation
Our $0.75 target price is based on our 2011E NAV Estimate (Exhibit 1) of $0.70 and a 3.5 times multiple (based on the companys historical trading range) on our 2012E cash flow per share estimate of $0.24. We have applied a 50% weighting to each in arriving at our target price.
CFPS 2010A 2011E 2011E 2012E 2012E 1Q Mar C$0.01 0.03A 0.03A 0.04 0.05 2Q Jun C$0.00 0.03A 0.03A 0.04 0.05 3Q Sep C$0.01 0.03 0.04A 0.04 0.06 4Q Dec C$0.02 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.08 Full Year C$0.03 0.12 0.14 0.17 0.24 Revenue (mln) C$7 20 20 30 39 NAVPS
Company Description Yangarra Resources is a junior oil & gas producer focused on the development of its light oil and liquids rich gas opportunities at its Willesden Green/Ferrier core area in the Alberta Deep Basin.
0.72 0.70 NA NA
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research
Published by Raymond James Ltd
Industrial
Ben Cherniavsky | 604.659.8244 | ben.cherniavsky@raymondjames.ca Theoni Pilarinos CFA (Associate) | 604.659.8234 | theoni.pilarinos@raymondjames.ca Greg Jackson (Associate) | 604.659.8262 | greg.jackson@raymondjames.ca
Consolidator
Titan Machinery Inc. Rocky Mountain Dealerships Tri Green Tractor
Target
Fairbanks International Inc. Agritrac Equipment Ltd. Green Power of Harper Implement Jackson-Lee Pearson
Target's Concentration
Case IH John Deere John Deere John Deere Case IH CAT Volvo New Holland Case IH N.M. John Deere Case IH John Deere
Target Territory
Case IH/New Holland Nebraska Alberta Indiana Saskatchewan Michigan Westbrook, Maine South Dakota Minnesota North Dakota, Montana South Carolina Pennsylvania Colorado Minnesota Illinois Nebraska Nebraska Texas Iowa Iowa Idaho/Washington Kansas City Romania
08-Feb-11 Rocky Mountain Dealerships 08-Feb-11 MacAllister Machinery 18-Feb-11 Strongco 28-Feb-11 Titan Machinery Inc. 14-Mar-11 Titan Machinery Inc. 21-Mar-11 Titan Machinery Inc. 22-Mar-11 Blanchard Equipment 15-Apr-11 Hoober Inc. 15-Apr-11 21st Century Equipment 19-Apr-11 Titan Machinery Inc. 02-May-11 Titan Machinery Inc. 08-Aug-11 A.C. McCartney 10-Aug-11 Titan Machinery Inc. 10-Aug-11 Titan Machinery Inc. 09-Sep-11 Doggett Heavy Machinery Services 21-Sep-11 Titan Machinery Inc. 21-Sep-11 Precision Equipment 07-Nov-11 Pap Group 17-Nov-11 Foley Equipment 17-Nov-11 Titan Machinery Inc.
*rental company **equipment rental software
J&B Equipment Ltd. Michigan Tractor Chadwick-BaRoss Inc. Tri-State Implement Schoffman's Inc. *ABC Rental Guess Farm Equipment Chambersburg Farm Service Kay Jan Inc. St. Joseph Equipment Inc. Kuhns Equipment Co. Virgl Implement Victors Inc. Rush Equipment Jewell Implement Co. Elder Implement Farmers Implement Columbia Tractor Inc. Dean Machinery AgroExpert
Carlson Tractor & Equipment New Holland AGCO Case IH Case IH John Deere Case IH John Deere John Deere Case IH CAT Case IH
Events
November 25, 2011 INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR SCHEDULE OF EVENTS RAYMOND JAMES CONFERENCES, FORUMS & TOURS
13-Dec 2011 5-Jan 2012 2-Feb 2012 4-7 Mar 2012 TORONTO 28-Nov 28-29 Nov 30-Nov 30 Nov-1 Dec 2-Dec 7-Dec 13-14 Dec MONTREAL 1-Dec 13-14 Dec 14-Dec I.T. Supply Chain Conference - New York, USA Government Services & Technology Summit - Washington D.C. Growth Airlines Conference - New York, USA 33rd Annual Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference - Orlando, Florida Meetings Group Lunch 1/1s, Group Lunch - 29th 1/1s, Group Lunch 1/1s, Group Lunch - Dec 1st
1/1s, Group Lunch
1/1s, Group Lunch 1/1s, Group Lunch 1/1s - Calgary 1/1s - San Francisco 1/1s - Vancouver 1/1s - Vancouver (28th), Calgary (29th) 1/1s - Vancouver 1/1s - San Francisco 1/1s - Winnipeg 1/1s - Vancouver 1/1s - San Francisco 1/1s - Texas 1/1s - Houston (5th), San Fran (6th) 1/1s - Calgary (7th), Vancouver (8th) 1/1s 1/1s 1/1s, Group Lunch 1/1s 1/1s, Group Lunch
WESTERN CANADA & WESTERN USA 28-Nov Anatolia Energy Inc. 28-Nov Strategic Oil & Gas Ltd. (SOG) 28-Nov ZCL Composites Inc. (ZCL) 28-29 Nov Petroamerica Oil Corp. (PTA) 30-Nov Ritchie Bros. Autioneers (RBA) 1-Dec Anatolia Energy Inc. 2-Dec Aimia (AIM) 5-Dec Anatolia Energy Inc. 5-Dec Secure Energy Services (SES) 5-6 Dec Trinidad Drilling (TDG) 5-6 Dec Petroamerica Oil Corp. (PTA) 7-8 Dec Toromont Industries (TIH) NEW YORK 30-Nov 30-Nov 1-Dec 1-Dec 8-Dec BOSTON MID-ATLANTIC USA 30-Nov Black Diamond (BDI) 2-Dec Petroamerica Oil Corp. (PTA) EUROPE 2 & 6 Dec 8-9 Dec Chieftain Metals Inc. (CFB) Baja Mining Corp. (BAJ) Analyst: Oil & Gas Producers Anatolia Energy Inc. Black Diamond (BDI) Petroamerica Oil Corp. (PTA) Analyst: Oil Sands/Oil & Gas Producers
Luc Mageau Ben Cherniavsky Rafi Khouri Ben Cherniavsky Kenric Tyghe Andrew Bradford Andrew Bradford Rafi Khouri Ben Cherniavsky Kristopher Zack Andrew Bradford Rafi Khouri Luc Mageau
Adam Low
Please contact your Raymond James Salesperson or Michelle Marguet, Marketing Coordinator (416-777-4951) Toll Free Canada Toronto: 1-888-601-6105 Montreal: 1-866-350-4455 Vancouver: 1-800-667-2899
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Earnings
Rep'd Company Symbol Exch YE Sector Industry Reporting Date Evertz Technologies Inc. Research In Motion Hana Mining Ltd. DragonWave Encana Corp Winpak Enablence Technologies Precision Drilling Corp Canfor Pulp Products Inc. Caterpillar Inc. West Fraser Timber Canadian National Railway Canadian Pacific Railway Agnico-Eagle Mines FirstService Corp. Methanex Mullen Group Open Text Canadian Oil Sands Limited Canam Group Inc. Canfor Cenovus Energy Domtar Nexen Inc Progress Energy Resources MacDonald Dettwiler & Associates Norbord Inc. Lone Pine Resources Daylight Energy Ltd. Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Toromont Industries ARC Resources Calfrac Well Services Ltd. Fibrek Inc. Interfor North American Energy Partners North American Palladium Ltd. Sierra Wireless Talisman Energy Wajax Corp. Yamana Gold Inc. Alamos Gold Inc. Bonavista Energy Canadian Natural CanWel Building Materials Group Denison Mines Corp. Eldorado Gold Corp. Fairborne Energy McCoy Corp. Mercer International Inc. Pengrowth Energy Petrominerales Russel Metals Stantec Suncor Energy Inc. Air Canada Heroux-Devtek Inc. ET RIMM|RIM HMG DWI|DRWI ECA WPK ENA PD|PDS CFX CAT WFT CNR|CNI CP AEM FSRV|FSV MEOH|MX MTL OTEX|OTC COS CAM CFP CVE UFS NXY PRQ MDA NBD LPR DAY RBA TIH ARX CFW FBK IFP.A NOA PDL|PAL.A SWIR|SW TLM WJX AUY|YRI AGI BNP CNQ CWX DML|DNN EGO|ELD FEL MCB MERC|MRI.U PGF|PGH PMG RUS STN|STN SU AC.B HRX T Q|T T T|Q T|N T V T|N T N T T|N T|N T|N Q|T Q|T T Q|T T T T T|N N|T T|N T T T T|N T N|T T T T T T T|N T|A Q|T T|N T N|T T T T|N T T|A N|T T T Q|T T|N T|B T T|N T|N T T Apr Feb Dec Feb Dec Dec Apr Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jun Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Technology Technology Mining Technology Energy Consumer Technology Energy Forest Prdcts Industrial Forest Prdcts Industrial Industrial Mining Real Estate Industrial Energy Technology Energy Industrial Forest Prdcts Energy Forest Prdcts Energy Energy Technology Forest Prdcts Energy Energy Industrial Industrial Energy Energy Forest Prdcts Forest Prdcts Industrial Mining Technology Energy Industrial Mining Mining Energy Energy Industrial Mining Mining Energy Industrial Forest Prdcts Energy Energy Industrial Industrial Energy Industrial Industrial IT Hardware IT Hardware Base Metals & Minerals Software | IT Services Sr Oil & Gas Con Prdcts & Retail IT Hardware Oil & Gas Services Pulp & Paper Infra & Constrcn Building Materials Transportation Transportation Precious Metals Real Estate Services Chemicals Oil & Gas Services Software | IT Services Oil Sands & Producers Infra & Constrcn Building Materials Oil Sands & Producers Pulp & Paper Sr Oil & Gas Intermediate Oil & Gas Software | IT Services Building Materials Intermediate Oil & Gas Intermediate Oil & Gas Infra & Constrcn Infra & Constrcn Intermediate Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Services Pulp & Paper Building Materials Infra & Constrcn Uranium & Jr Exploration IT Hardware Intl Oil & Gas Infra & Constrcn Precious Metals Precious Metals Intermediate Oil & Gas Sr Oil & Gas Transportation Uranium & Jr Exploration Precious Metals Intermediate Oil & Gas Infra & Constrcn Pulp & Paper Intermediate Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Infra & Constrcn Infra & Constrcn Oil Sands & Producers Transportation Transportation 6-Sep-11 16-Sep-11 28-Sep-11 6-Oct-11 20-Oct-11 20-Oct-11 21-Oct-11 21-Oct-11 24-Oct-11 24-Oct-11 24-Oct-11 25-Oct-11 25-Oct-11 26-Oct-11 26-Oct-11 26-Oct-11 26-Oct-11 26-Oct-11 27-Oct-11 27-Oct-11 27-Oct-11 27-Oct-11 27-Oct-11 27-Oct-11 27-Oct-11 28-Oct-11 28-Oct-11 31-Oct-11 1-Nov-11 1-Nov-11 1-Nov-11 2-Nov-11 2-Nov-11 2-Nov-11 2-Nov-11 2-Nov-11 2-Nov-11 2-Nov-11 2-Nov-11 2-Nov-11 2-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 3-Nov-11 4-Nov-11 4-Nov-11 w/o w/o w/o w/o bm am am bm am bm am am bm am bm am am am am bm am bm bm bm am am bm am am bm dm am bm am am am am am bm bm am bm am bm bm am bm bm dm am am bm am dm bm bm bm SL SL AL SL JB.KZ KT SL AB DS TP.BC DS SH SH BH FB SH AB SL JB FB DS JB DS JB.KZ KZ SL DS KZ KZ BC BC KZ AB DS DS BC BJ SL RK BC BH GB KZ JB.KZ SH BJ BH KZ SH DS KZ RK FB BC JB BC BC Time Analyst RJ Estimate $0.19 $0.85 -$0.01 -US$0.17 US$1.57 US$ 0.23 nm $0.27 $0.55 $1.55 $0.57 $1.33 $0.98 $0.69 US $0.70 $0.58 $0.32 $0.92 $0.92 $0.00 $0.00 $1.07 $2.66 $1.14 $0.26 $0.60 -$0.02 $0.38 $0.33 $0.17 $0.32 $0.78 $1.02 $0.00 -$0.04 -$0.07 $0.01 -$0.01 US$0.77 $0.85 $0.25 $0.13 $0.91 $1.37 $0.07 -$0.02 $0.20 $0.26 $0.12 0.28 $0.57 US$1.78 $0.40 $0.60 $1.42 $0.44 $0.13 Consensus Estimate $0.19 $0.89 -$0.01 -US$0.19 US$1.35 US$ 0.23 nm $0.21 $0.39 $1.55 $0.47 $1.27 $1.13 $0.68 US $0.68 $0.63 $0.35 $0.93 $0.95 $0.01 -$0.05 $1.08 $2.50 $1.01 $0.25 $0.62 -$0.03 $0.40 $0.31 $0.16 $0.33 $0.73 $1.14 $0.01 -$0.05 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.03 US$0.80 $0.88 $0.26 $0.13 $0.88 $1.43 $0.07 -$0.04 $0.20 $0.27 na 0.33 $0.47 US$1.73 $0.42 $0.60 $1.55 $0.49 $0.12 RJ/Cons Difference $0.00 -$0.04 $0.00 US$0.02 US$0.22 US$ 0.00 nm $0.06 $0.17 $0.00 $0.10 $0.06 -$0.15 $0.01 US $0.02 -$0.05 -$0.03 $0.01 -$0.03 -$0.01 $0.05 -$0.01 $0.16 $0.13 $0.01 $0.02 $0.01 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.05 -$0.12 -$0.01 $0.01 -$0.07 $0.01 -$0.02 -US$0.03 -$0.03 -$0.01 $0.00 $0.03 -$0.06 $0.00 $0.02 $0.00 -$0.01 na - 0.04 $0.10 US$0.05 -$0.02 $0.00 -$0.13 -$0.05 $0.01 Actual Reported $0.23 $0.80 -$0.02 -US$0.23 US$1.57 US$ 0.22 -$0.01 $0.25 $0.47 $1.71 $0.06 $1.38 $1.10 $0.60 US $0.61 $0.59 $0.47 $1.01 $1.06 $0.21 -$0.01 $1.05 $3.10 $0.98 $0.22 $0.73 -$0.02 $0.40 $0.31 $0.06 $0.40 $0.74 $1.56 $0.05 -$0.01 $0.18 -$0.02 $0.15 US$0.88 $1.06 $0.26 $0.12 $0.84 $1.57 $0.06 $0.01 $0.20 $0.31 $0.11 0.15 $0.46 US$1.93 $0.43 $0.63 $1.73 -$0.45 $0.16
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Rep'd Company
Symbol
Exch
YE
Sector
Industry
Reporting Date
Time
Analyst
RJ Estimate
Consensus Estimate $0.22 $0.78 $0.37 $0.32 $0.17 $0.29 -$0.09 $0.04 US$0.31 $0.13 $0.04 $1.33 $0.40 $0.73 $0.38 $0.50 $0.23 $0.35 $0.02 $0.45 $0.27 US$1.26 $0.78 $0.14 $0.20 $0.03 $0.19 $0.58 $0.06 $0.45 $0.27 $0.26 $0.10 $0.15 na $0.40 $0.46 $0.12 $0.00 US$0.33 $0.86 $0.25 $0.14 $0.80 $0.50 $0.15 US$0.02 $0.33 $0.64 $0.22 $96.4mln* -$0.01 -$0.02 $1.16 $0.18 $0.15 $0.08 $0.38 $0.49 $0.05
RJ/Cons Difference $0.00 -$0.02 -$0.01 -$0.06 $0.00 $0.07 $0.12 $0.01 -US$0.02 $0.02 -$0.01 -$0.05 -$0.07 $0.07 -$0.01 $0.04 $0.00 -$0.15 -$0.01 $0.03 $0.04 US$0.03 -$0.03 $0.02 -$0.06 -$0.04 $0.04 -$0.07 $0.02 $0.03 $0.02 -$0.02 $0.02 $0.02 na $0.04 $0.02 $0.02 -$0.01 -US$0.02 -$0.02 $0.07 -$0.04 $0.01 $0.04 $0.04 -US$0.03 -$0.02 $0.06 $0.02 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.02 -$0.02 $0.02 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.05 $0.00
Actual Reported $0.27 $0.83 $0.49 $0.26 $0.20 $0.34 -$0.54 $0.10 US$0.26 $0.08 $0.05 $1.29 $0.49 $0.54 $0.25 $0.45 $0.16 $0.21 -$0.01 $0.44 $0.38 US$1.29 $0.49 $0.13 $0.13 $0.14 $0.28 $0.73 $0.07 $0.41 $0.26 $0.29 $0.11 $0.22 $0.11 $0.41 $0.54 $0.17 -$0.01 US$0.29 $0.81 $0.28 $0.17 $0.80 $0.41 $0.21 $0.28 $0.50 $0.23 -$0.05 na $1.20 $0.23 $0.16 $0.07 $0.39 $0.44 $0.04
Miranda Tech Inc. SNC Lavalin Aecon Group Cameco CML Healthcare Ensign Energy Services Fortress Paper GasFrac Energy Services Gran Tierra Energy Secure Energy Services Inc. Uranium One Inc. Vermilion Energy Inc. Canyon Services Group Inc. Cervus Equipment Corp Churchill Corp Crew Energy Easyhome Ltd. Finning International Golden Star NAL Energy Open Range Energy Pacific Rubiales Energy Pan American Silver Perpetual Energy Inc. Silvercorp Softchoice Strongco Corp Trican Well Service ZCL Composites Atrium Innovations Inc. Birchcliff Energy Black Diamond Group Ltd. Crocotta Energy Enerflex Ltd. Essential Energy Services Exchange Income Corp. Genivar Inc. Insignia Energy Lake Shore Gold Corp. Parex Resources Inc. PetroBakken Energy Pure Energy Services Ltd. Savanna Energy Services Corp Shoppers Drug Mart Silver Wheaton Trinidad Drilling Ltd. Tuscany International Drilling Inc. WestJet Airlines Zargon Oil & Gas Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. Aimia Asia Bio-Chem Group Corp. Athabasca Oil Sands Baytex Energy Bird Construction Inc. CAE Inc. Cequence Energy CGI Group Cineplex Inc. Connacher Oil and Gas
MT SNC ARE CCO CLC ESI FTP GFS GTE SES UUU VET FRC CVL CUQ CR EH FTT GSS|GSC NAE ONR PRE PAAS|PAA PMT SVM SO SQP TCW ZCL ATB BIR BDI CTA EFX ESN EIF GNV ISN LSG PXT PBN PSV SVY SC SLW TDG TID WJA ZAR AAV AIM ABC ATH BTE BDT CAE|CAE CQE GIB.A|GIB CGX CLL
T T T T T T T T T|A T T T T V T T T T A|T T T T|B Q|T T A|T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T T N|T T T T T T|N T T T T|N T T|N T T|N T T
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IT Hardware Infra & Constrcn Infra & Constrcn Uranium & Jr Exploration Con Prdcts & Retail Oil & Gas Services Pulp & Paper Oil & Gas Services Intl Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Services Uranium & Jr Exploration Intermediate Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Services Infra & Constrcn Infra & Constrcn Intermediate Oil & Gas Con Prdcts & Retail Infra & Constrcn Precious Metals Intermediate Oil & Gas Jr Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Precious Metals Intermediate Oil & Gas Precious Metals Software | IT Services Infra & Constrcn Oil & Gas Services Infra & Constrcn Con Prdcts & Retail Intermediate Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Services Jr Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Services Oil & Gas Services Transportation Infra & Constrcn Jr Oil & Gas Precious Metals Intl Oil & Gas Intermediate Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Services Oil & Gas Services Con Prdcts & Retail Precious Metals Oil & Gas Services Oil & Gas Services Transportation Intermediate Oil & Gas Intermediate Oil & Gas Con Prdcts & Retail Agribsness & Food Prdcts Oil Sands & Producers Intermediate Oil & Gas Infra & Constrcn Transportation Jr Oil & Gas Software | IT Services Con Prdcts & Retail Oil Sands & Producers
4-Nov-11 4-Nov-11 7-Nov-11 7-Nov-11 7-Nov-11 7-Nov-11 7-Nov-11 7-Nov-11 7-Nov-11 7-Nov-11 7-Nov-11 7-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 8-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 9-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11
SL FB FB BJ JM AB DS AB RK AB BJ KZ AB BC FB LM FB BC BH KZ LM RK BH KZ BH SL BC AB BC KT LM AB LM AB AB SH FB LM BJ RK JB AB AB KT BH AB AB BC KZ LM KT SH JB KZ FB BC LM SL KT JB
$0.22 $0.76 $0.36 $0.26 $0.17 $0.36 $0.03 $0.05 US$0.29 $0.15 $0.03 $1.28 $0.33 $0.79 $0.37 $0.54 $0.23 $0.20 $0.01 $0.48 $0.31 US$1.29 $0.75 $0.16 $0.14 $0.07 $0.23 $0.51 $0.08 $0.48 $0.29 $0.24 $0.12 $0.17 $0.07 $0.44 $0.48 $0.14 -$0.01 US$0.31 $0.84 $0.32 $0.10 $0.81 $0.54 $0.19 -US$0.01 $0.31 $0.70 $0.24 $98.7 mln* -$0.01 -$0.02 $1.14 $0.16 $0.17 $0.07 $0.39 $0.44 $0.05
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Rep'd Company
Symbol
Exch
YE
Sector
Industry
Reporting Date
Time
Analyst
RJ Estimate
Consensus Estimate $1.10 $0.94 $0.01 $0.12 $0.28 $0.33 $0.51 US$1.09 $0.35 -$0.11 $0.64 $0.24 $0.33 US$0.19 $0.03 $0.06 $0.24 $0.35 -$0.01 na -$0.04 $0.21 -$0.01 -$0.03 $0.05 $0.00 -$0.15 nm nm -$0.02 $1.46 -$0.01 $0.13 $0.03 $0.13 $0.00 $0.13 $0.12 $0.00 na na na -US$0.01 -$0.17 $0.05 -$0.11 na C$0.23 -$0.01 -$0.01 $0.03 $0.04 -$0.01 na US$0.05 na na $0.00 nm na
RJ/Cons Difference $0.00 $0.08 $0.00 $0.01 $0.00 $0.02 -$0.03 -US$0.04 -$0.03 -$0.01 -$0.01 $0.03 $0.02 US$0.01 $0.01 -$0.02 -$0.04 $0.12 -$0.02 na -$0.01 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.01 -$0.02 $0.00 -$0.02 nm nm -$0.03 -$0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.02 -$0.01 na na na US$0.00 $0.03 $0.00 $0.00 na -C$0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.03 $0.00 na -US$0.01 na na $0.00 nm na
Actual Reported $1.09 $0.81 $0.11 $0.09 $0.26 $0.31 $0.57 US$1.17 $0.35 -$0.18 $0.65 $0.24 $0.33 US$0.17 $0.04 $0.06 $0.20 $0.53 -$0.02 -$2.18 $0.22 -$0.01 -$0.03 $0.10 $0.00 -$0.74 nm $0.15 -$0.01 $1.37 $0.14 $0.03 $0.17 $0.01 $0.10 $0.10 -$0.02 $0.00 -US$0.01 US$0.00 -US$0.01 -$0.14 $0.05 -$0.08 $0.04 $0.22
Crescent Point Enerplus Corp. GLV Inc. Great Canadian Gaming IBI Group Inc. Legacy Oil & Gas Neo Material Technologies Niko Resources Rocky Mountain Dealerships Inc Student Transportation Inc. Tim Hortons Western Energy Services Corp WestFire Energy Bankers Petroleum Glacier Media Inc. Osisko Mining Corp Alacer Gold Corp. Alliance Grain Traders Inc. Alterra Power Corp, Anooraq Resources Corp. Armtec Infrastructure Inc. AvenEx Energy Azure Dynamics BioExx Specialty Proteins Ltd. Copper Mountain Mining Corp. Eastern Platinum Ltd. GLG Life Tech Corporation Intrinsyc Software Magellan Aerospace Paladin Energy Petrobank Energy Ram Power Renegade Petroleum Ltd. Southern Pacific Resources Corp. Strad Energy Services Ltd. Strategic Oil & Gas Ltd. Twin Butte Energy Waldron Energy Corp. Great Basin Gold Petromanas Energy Inc. Porto Energy Corp. ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. WesternZagros Resources Conifex Timber Inc. Novus Energy Inc. Orezone Resources Yangarra Resources Ltd. Pan Orient Energy Corp Crocodile Gold Corp. Geologix Explorations Inc. Omni-Lite Industries Orvana Minerals Corp. U.S. Geothermal PetroAmerica Oil Corp. Suroco Energy ArPetrol Ltd. Petronova Inc. Zodiac Exploration Inc. Route1 Inc Greenfields Petroleum Corp.
CPG ERF GLV.A GC IBG LEG NEM NKO RME STB THI WRG WFE BNK GVC OSK ASR AGT AXY ARQ|ANO ARF AVF AZD BXI CUM ELR GLG ICS MAL PDN PBG RPG RPL STP SDY SOG TBE WDN GBG PMI PEC SNM WZR CFF NVS ORE YGR POE CRK GIX OML ORV GTH | HTM PTA SRN RPT PNA ZEX ROI GNF.S
Dec Dec Mar Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Dec Jun Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jun Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Apr Dec Dec Dec Dec Jun Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Sep Mar Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec
Energy Energy Industrial Consumer Industrial Energy Mining Energy Industrial Industrial Consumer Energy Energy Energy Consumer Mining Mining Industrial Technology Mining Industrial Energy Technology Industrial Mining Mining Industrial Technology Industrial Mining Energy Technology Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Mining Energy Energy Energy Energy Forest Prdcts Energy Mining Energy Energy Mining Mining Industrial Mining Technology Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Technology Energy
Intermediate Oil & Gas Intermediate Oil & Gas Infra & Constrcn Con Prdcts & Retail Infra & Constrcn Intermediate Oil & Gas Special Situations Intl Oil & Gas Infra & Constrcn Transportation Con Prdcts & Retail Oil & Gas Services Jr Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Con Prdcts & Retail Precious Metals Precious Metals Agribsness & Food Prdcts Alt Energy | Clean Tech Uranium & Jr Exploration Infra & Constrcn Intermediate Oil & Gas Alt Energy | Clean Tech Agribsness & Food Prdcts Base Metals & Minerals Uranium & Jr Exploration Agribsness & Food Prdcts Software | IT Services Transportation Uranium & Jr Exploration Oil Sands & Producers Alt Energy | Clean Tech Jr Oil & Gas Oil Sands & Producers Oil & Gas Services Jr Oil & Gas Jr Oil & Gas Jr Oil & Gas Precious Metals Intl Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Building Materials Jr Oil & Gas Precious Metals Jr Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Precious Metals Precious Metals Transportation Precious Metals Alt Energy | Clean Tech Intl Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Intl Oil & Gas Jr Oil & Gas Producers Software | IT Services Intl Oil & Gas
10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 10-Nov-11 11-Nov-11 11-Nov-11 11-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 14-Nov-11 15-Nov-11 17-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 22-Nov-11 22-Nov-11 22-Nov-11 23-Nov-11 24-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 18-Nov-11 21-Nov-11 24-Nov-11 25-Nov-11 25-Nov-11 25-Nov-11 27-Nov-11 28-Nov-11
bm bm dm am am am bm w/o bm am bm am am w/o w/o bm bm am w/o w/o am w/o am am am bm bm w/o w/o bm w/o am bm am w/o w/o am w/o am w/o am w/o w/o am bm w/o w/o bm w/o w/o w/o w/o w/o w/o am w/o w/o am w/o w/o
KZ KZ FB KT FB KZ FB RK BC SH KT AB LM RK KT BH BH SH SL BJ FB KZ SL SH AL BJ SH SL BC BJ JB SL LM JB AB LM LM KZ BH RK RK RK RK DS LM BH LM RK GB GB SH GB SL RK RK RK RK JB SL RK
$1.10 $1.02 $0.01 $0.13 $0.28 $0.35 $0.48 US$1.05 $0.32 -$0.12 $0.63 $0.27 $0.35 US$0.20 $0.04 $0.04 $0.20 $0.47 $0.01 -$0.06 -$0.05 $0.21 $0.00 -$0.02 $0.03 $0.00 -$0.17 nm $0.14 -$0.05 $1.45 -$0.02 $0.14 $0.04 $0.13 $0.00 $0.11 $0.14 -$0.01 US$0.00 -US$0.01 US$0.00 -US$0.01 -$0.14 $0.05 -$0.11 $0.03 C$0.22 -$0.01 -$0.01 $0.03 $0.06 -$0.01 C$0.00 US$0.04 C$0.00 -US$0.01 $0.00 nm -US$0.01
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
bm = before market | dm = during market | am = after market | w/o = week of RESEARCH TEAM | LEGEND Code AL AB BC BH BJ DS FB GB JB JM KT KZ LM RK SH SL TP Analyst Adam Low Andrew Bradford Ben Cherniavsky Brad Humphrey Bart Jaworski Daryl Swetlishoff Frederic Bastien Gary Baschuk Justin Bouchard Jamil Murji Kenric Tyghe Kristopher Zack Luc Mageau Rafi Khouri Steven Hansen Steven Li Theoni Pilarinos Email adam.low@raymondjames.ca andrew.bradford@raymondjames.ca ben.cherniavsky@raymondjames.ca brad.humphrey@raymondjames.ca bart.jaworski@raymondjames.ca daryl.swetlishoff@raymondjames.ca frederic.bastien@raymondjames.ca gary.baschuk@raymondjames.ca justin.bouchard@raymondjames.ca jamil.murji@raymondjames.ca kenric.tyghe@raymondjames.ca kristopher.zack@raymondjames.ca luc.mageau@raymondjames.ca rafi.khouri@raymondjames.ca steve.hansen@raymondjames.ca steven.li@raymondjames.ca theoni.pilarinos@raymondjames.ca Phone 416.777.4943 403.509.0503 604.659.8244 416.777.4917 604.659.8282 604.659.8246 604.659.8232 416.777.7098 403.509.0523 604.659.8261 416.777.7188 403.221.0414 403.509.0505 403.509.0560 604.659.8208 416.777.4918 604.659.8234 Associate(s) Tracy Reynolds Nicholas Heffernan Theoni Pilarinos, Greg Jackson Phil Russo, Tracy Reynolds David Sadowski David Quezada Jamil Murji Gordon Lawson Christopher Cox Sara Kohbodi Gordon Steppan Matthew Stevenson Cynthia Yee, Ana Wessel Arash Yazdani Diane Yu -
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Analyst Information
Analyst Compensation: Equity research analysts and associates at Raymond James are compensated on a salary and bonus system. Several factors enter into the compensation determination for an analyst, including i) research quality and overall productivity, including success in rating stocks on an absolute basis and relative to the local exchange composite Index and/or a sector index, ii) recognition from institutional investors, iii) support effectiveness to the institutional and retail sales forces and traders, iv) commissions generated in stocks under coverage that are attributable to the analysts efforts, v) net revenues of the overall Equity Capital Markets Group, and vi) compensation levels for analysts at competing investment dealers. Analyst Stock Holdings: Effective September 2002, Raymond James equity research analysts and associates or members of their households are forbidden from investing in securities of companies covered by them. Analysts and associates are permitted to hold long positions in the securities of companies they cover which were in place prior to September 2002 but are only permitted to sell those positions five days after the rating has been lowered to Underperform.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject securities. No part of said person's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. In addition, said analyst has not received compensation from any subject company in the last 12 months.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Aggressive Growth (AG) Medium or higher risk equities of companies in fast growing and competitive industries, with less predictable earnings and acceptable, but possibly more leveraged balance sheets. High Risk (HR) Companies with less predictable earnings (or losses), rapidly changing market dynamics, financial and competitive issues, higher price volatility (beta), and risk of principal. Venture Risk (VR) Companies with a short or unprofitable operating history, limited or less predictable revenues, very high risk associated with success, and a substantial risk of principal.
Rating Distributions
Coverage Universe Rating Distribution RJL Strong Buy and Outperform (Buy) Market Perform (Hold) Underperform (Sell) 73% 26% 1% RJA 58% 36% 6% RJ LatAm 39% 55% 6% Investment Banking Distribution RJL 51% 25% 33% RJA 14% 5% 6% RJ LatAm 27% 3% 0%
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
attractiveness; management effectiveness; competition; visibility; financial condition, and expected total return, among other factors. These factors are subject to change depending on overall economic conditions or industry- or companyspecific occurrences. Target Prices: The information below indicates target price and rating changes for the subject companies included in this research.
Update Date Closing Price Target Price 1.90 2.00 1.45 1.35 Target Price 2.55 2.75 UR 3.50 3.00 2.25 1.50 1.00 0.60 0.60 0.45 0.45 0.30 Rating 2 2 2 2 2 2 UR 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 2 2 Rating
S c rity P e (C ) eu ric $
Text
Analyst Recommendations & 12 Month SB1: Strong Buy MO2: MP3: Market Perform MU4: NR : Not Rated R:
D te: N em a ov ber 2 2 1 3 01 P rice C ve g S sp n e o ra e u e d d R tin C a g a g hne T rg t P a e rice a d R tin C a g n a g hne T rg t P a e rice C a g hne S lit Ad stm n p ju e t
Valuation Methodology: Our target price is based on a multiple applied to our NAV/share, and takes into account the risk and liquidity-adjusted historic multiples.
Update Date Sep-30-11 Sep-09-11 Mar-15-11 Jan-21-11 Jan-18-11 Nov-30-10 Mar-12-10 Dec-01-09 Nov-24-09 Jul-23-09 Apr-23-09 Apr-15-09 Dec-15-08
N v-0 -1 o 2 1 U U R R M 2 $.30 O $ .6 2 0 $ .4 2 0 $ .2 2 0 $ .0 2 0 $ .8 1 0 M 2 $.45 O M $.45 P3 M $.60 P3 M 2 $.60 O S 1 $1.00 B S 1 $1.50 B S 1 $2.25 B S 1 $3.00 B S 1 $3.50 B M 2 $2.75 O M 2 $2.55 O
S c rity P e (C ) eu ric $
$ .6 1 0 $ .4 1 0 $ .2 1 0 $ .0 1 0 $ .8 0 0 $ .6 0 0 $ .4 0 0 $ .2 0 0 M y-1 -0 a 1 9 M y-1 -1 a 0 0 M y-2 -1 a 6 1 O 6 9 ct-2 -0 O 5 0 ct-2 -1 M r-1 -0 a 6 9 M r-1 -1 a 5 0 M r-0 -1 a 4 1 M r-3 -1 a 0 1 Fb 6 9 e -1 -0 Fb 5 0 e -1 -1 Fb 5 1 e -0 -1 N v-2 -0 o 4 8 D c-2 -0 e 2 8 N v-2 -0 o 3 9 D c-2 -0 e 1 9 N v-2 -1 o 0 0 D c-1 -1 e 6 0 Ag 3 9 u -0 -0 Ag 1 9 u -3 -0 Sp 8 9 e -2 -0 Ag 2 0 u -0 -1 Ag 0 0 u -3 -1 Sp 7 0 e -2 -1 Ag 7 1 u -1 -1 Sp 0 1 e -1 -1 O 6 1 ct-0 -1 A r-1 -0 p 3 9 A r-1 -1 p 2 0 A r-2 -1 p 8 1 Ju 6 9 l-0 -0 Ju 5 0 l-0 -1 Ja -1 -0 n 9 9 Ju -0 -0 n 8 9 Ja -1 -1 n 8 0 Ju -0 -1 n 7 0 Ja -1 -1 n 3 1 Ju -2 -1 n 3 1 Ju 1 1 l-2 -1 $ .0 0 0
Text
Analyst Recommendations & 12 Month SB1: Strong Buy MO2: MP3: Market Perform MU4: NR : Not Rated R:
D te: N em a ov ber 2 2 1 3 01 P rice C ve g S sp n e o ra e u e d d R tin C a g a g hne T rg t P a e rice a d R tin C a g n a g hne T rg t P a e rice C a g hne S lit Ad stm n p ju e t
Valuation Methodology: Our valuation is based on historic risk and liquidity adjusted developer P/NAV multiple.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Closing Price 0.99 1.14 1.71 2.35 2.17 1.42 0.48 0.43 0.45 0.51 0.38 0.38 0.16
C d te C p er C rp (D T 3 yr. S ck P an en o p o . N ) to erfo an rm ce
$ .9 0 0 $ .8 0 0 $ .7 0 0
S c rity P e (C ) eu ric $
$ .6 0 0 $ .5 0 0 $ .4 0 0 $ .3 0 0 $ .2 0 0 $ .1 0 0 M y-1 -0 a 1 9 M y-1 -1 a 0 0 M y-0 -1 a 4 1 M y-3 -1 a 1 1 O 6 9 ct-2 -0 O 5 0 ct-2 -1 M r-1 -0 a 6 9 M r-1 -1 a 5 0 M r-1 -1 a 2 1 Fb 6 9 e -1 -0 Fb 5 0 e -1 -1 Fb 2 1 e -1 -1 N v-2 -0 o 4 8 D c-2 -0 e 2 8 N v-2 -0 o 3 9 D c-2 -0 e 1 9 N v-2 -1 o 0 0 D c-1 -1 e 8 0 O 1 1 ct-1 -1 A r-1 -0 p 3 9 A r-1 -1 p 2 0 A r-0 -1 p 7 1 Ju 6 9 l-0 -0 Ju 5 0 l-0 -1 Ja -1 -0 n 9 9 Ju -0 -0 n 8 9 Ja -1 -1 n 8 0 Ju -0 -1 n 7 0 Ja -1 -1 n 5 1 Ju -2 -1 n 8 1 Ju 2 1 l-2 -1 N v-0 -1 o 4 1 Ag 3 9 u -0 -0 Ag 1 9 u -3 -0 Sp 8 9 e -2 -0 Ag 2 0 u -0 -1 Ag 0 0 u -3 -1 Sp 7 0 e -2 -1 Ag 7 1 u -1 -1 Sp 3 1 e -1 -1 $ .0 0 0
Text
Analyst Recommendations & 12 Month SB1: Strong Buy MO2: MP3: Market Perform MU4: NR : Not Rated R:
D te: N em a ov ber 2 2 1 3 01 P rice C ve g S sp n e o ra e u e d d R tin C a g a g hne T rg t P a e rice a d R tin C a g n a g hne T rg t P a e rice C a g hne S lit Ad stm n p ju e t
Valuation Methodology: Our valuation is based on a blended approach using net asset value and P/CF multiple, which takes into account growth potential and risk profile.
Risk Factors
General Risk Factors: Following are some general risk factors that pertain to the projected target prices included on Raymond James research: (1) Industry fundamentals with respect to customer demand or product / service pricing could change and adversely impact expected revenues and earnings; (2) Issues relating to major competitors or market shares or new product expectations could change investor attitudes toward the sector or this stock; (3) Unforeseen developments with respect to the management, financial condition or accounting policies or practices could alter the prospective valuation. Risks - Baja Mining Corp. Mining companies are subject to a range of risks, including, but not limited to: environmental risk, political risk, operational risk, financial risk, hedging risk, commodity price fluctuation risk, and currency risk. Any difference between our metal price forecasts and realized metal prices will likely have an impact on our earnings and valuation estimates for the mining companies in our research coverage universe. The operation of mines, and mills is complex and is exposed to a number of risks, most of which are beyond the companys control. These include: environmental compliance issues, personnel accidents, metallurgical/other processing problems, unexpected rock formations, ground or slope failures, flooding or fires, earthquakes, rock bursts, equipment failures, consultant errors and, interruption due to inclement weather conditions, road closures, and/or local protests. Other risks include, but are not limited to: uncertainties surrounding reclamation costs, aging equipment and facilities which could lead to increased costs, strikes, and transportation disruptions. Risks - Candente Copper Corp. Mining companies are subject to a range of risks, including, but not limited to: environmental risk, political risk, operational risk, financial risk, hedging risk, commodity price fluctuation risk, and currency risk. Any difference between our metal price forecasts and realized metal prices will likely have an impact on our earnings and valuation estimates for the mining companies in our research coverage universe. The operation of mines, and mills is complex and is exposed to a number of risks, most of which are beyond the companys control. These include: environmental compliance issues; personal accidents; metallurgical/other processing problems; unexpected rock formations; ground or slope failures; flooding or fires; earthquakes; rock bursts; equipment failures; consultant errors and, interruption due to inclement, weather conditions, road closures, and/or local protests. Other risks include, but are not limited to: uncertainties surrounding reclamation costs; aging equipment and facilities which could lead to increased costs; strikes; and, transportation disruptions.
Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Risks - Yangarra Resources Ltd. Key risks include cash flow exposure to fluctuations in energy prices and foreign exchange rates, more specifically the relationship between the Canadian and U.S. dollar. Due to the nature of its operations, Yangarra also faces risks associated with weather-related interruptions, dry holes, restricted access to facilities, unplanned pipeline shutdowns and unexpected production delays. Also, the company is exposed to the risk that unexpected increases in decline rates lower production volumes, resulting in lower cash flow. Unexpected cost overruns, change in government policies (local, provincial and federal) and interest rate fluctuations could also negatively impact net income and cash flow. Some of Yangarras acreage is non-operated in nature, therefore the company is at risk of changes in corporate direction by the operator. Additional Risk and Disclosure information, as well as more information on the Raymond James rating system and suitability categories, is available for Raymond James at rjcapitalmarkets.com/SearchForDisclosures_main.asp and for Raymond James Limited at www.raymondjames.ca/researchdisclosures.
International Disclosures
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This is RJA client releasable research
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Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2
Canada Research | Page 18 of 18 RAYMOND JAMES LTD. CANADIAN INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY TEAM WWW.RAYMONDJAMES.CA EQUITY RESEARCH
HEAD OF EQUITY RESEARCH DARYL SWETLISHOFF, CFA 604.659.8246
ENERGY
OIL & GAS ENERGY SERVICES, HEAD OF ENERGY RESEARCH ANDREW BRADFORD, CFA NICK HEFFERNAN (ASSOCIATE) VINCENT URNESS (ASSOCIATE) INTERNATIONAL OIL & GAS RAFI KHOURI, B.SC, MBA CYNTHIA YEE (ASSOCIATE) ANA WESSEL (ASSOCIATE) OIL & GAS TRUSTS | OIL & GAS PRODUCERS KRISTOPHER ZACK, CA, CFA GORDON STEPPAN (ASSOCIATE) OIL SANDS | OIL & GAS PRODUCERS JUSTIN BOUCHARD, P.ENG. CHRISTOPHER COX (ASSOCIATE) OIL & GAS PRODUCERS LUC MAGEAU, CFA MATTHEW STEVENSON (ASSOCIATE) 403.509.0503 403.509.0511 403.509.0534 403.509.0560 403.221.0355 403.509.0541 403.221.0414 403.221.0411 403.509.0523 403.509.0562 403.509.0505 403.509.0518
VANCOUVER (1.800.667.2899)
SCOT ATKINSON, CFA DOUG BELL TERRI MCEWAN (ASSISTANT)
INDUSTRIAL
INDUSTRIAL | AEROSPACE & AVIATION, HEAD OF INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH BEN CHERNIAVSKY 604.659.8244 604.659.8234 THEONI PILARINOS, CFA (ASSOCIATE) 604.659.8262 GREG JACKSON (ASSOCIATE) INFRASTRUCTURE & CONSTRUCTION 604.659.8232 FREDERIC BASTIEN, CFA JAMIL MURJI, CFA (ASSOCIATE) 604.659.8261 TRANSPORTATION | AGRIBUSINESS & FOOD PRODUCTS 604.659.8208 STEVE HANSEN, CMA, CFA ARASH YAZDANI, MBA (ASSOCIATE) 604.659.8280
LONDON
JON DE VOS LAKSHMI THURAI ADAM WOOD
MINING
BASE METALS & MINERALS ADAM LOW, CFA PRECIOUS METALS BRAD HUMPHREY GARY BASCHUK GORDON LAWSON (ASSOCIATE) PHIL RUSSO (ASSOCIATE) URANIUM & JUNIOR EXPLORATION BART JAWORSKI, P.GEO. DAVID SADOWSKI (ASSOCIATE) 416.777.4943 416.777.4917 416.777.7098 416.777.7102 416.777.7084 604.659.8282 604.659.8255
FORESTRY
FORESTRY DARYL SWETLISHOFF, CFA DAVID QUEZADA, CFA (ASSOCIATE) 604.659.8246 604.659.8257
REAL ESTATE
REAL ESTATE & REITS TRACY REYNOLDS (ASSOCIATE) 416.777.7042
TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY & CLEAN TECH STEVEN LI, CFA DIANE YU (ASSOCIATE) 416.777.4918 416.777.6414
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