Probability

Maths Study Sessions 2024

AASL and AAHL

1. [Maximum mark: 6]
Consider two events, A and B, such that P(A) = 0.35, P(B) = 0.55, and
P(A ∪ B) = 0.6.
Find P(A0 | B 0 )

2. [Maximum mark: 6]
7 13
Consider two events, A and B, such that P(A0 ∩ B 0 ) = , P(B | A) = , and
52 20
8
P(A | B 0 ) = .
13
Decide if events A and B are independent.

3. [Maximum mark: 6]
James either walks or gets the bus to school every day.
If James walks to school, the probability he is late is 0.6.
If he gets the bus, the probability he is late is 0.2.
If it is raining the probability he gets the bus is 0.7.
Today it rained and James was late.
Find the probability he got the bus.

1
4. [Maximum mark: 6]
A test is used to determine if a person has a particular strand of rotavirus.
If a person has the virus the test returns a positive 93% of the time.
If a person does not have the virus the test returns a positive 4% of the time.
It is known that the probability of a randomly selected person having this strand
of rotavirus is 3%.

(a) If a randomly selected person tests positive for the virus, find the proba-
[3]
bility they actually have the virus.

(b) In a population of 200 000 people, estimate how many people would be
[3]
misdiagnosed using this test.

5. [Maximum mark: 12]

Andy and Beth are playing a game.
They take turns rolling a dice. The first player to roll a 6 wins.
Beth rolls first.

(a) (i) What is the probability Andy wins?

(ii) In one particular game Andy rolls at least 2 times. What is the
probability he wins this game? [4]

(b) (i) What is the probability Beth wins exactly 3 games?

(ii) What is the probability Beth wins exactly 3 games given she wins at
least 3 games? [4]
After finishing their game Andy and Beth decide to visit a carnival.
They hear someone promoting their carnival game... “Play the coin flip, guar-
anteed win every time!”
They ask about the game and find out that it costs $1 to play and for each play
you flip 10 coins.
Players receive a payout based on how many heads you flip.
Here is the payout table.

Number of
Payout
heads

0−5 $0.20

6−8 $2

9 − 10 $5

Payout: this is the total amount the player receives back after playing the
game.
Beth has $5 in her pocket.
She decides to play the game 8 times.

(c) (i) How much money should she expect to have after playing 8 times?

(ii) What is the variance of the payout? [4]

 AAHL only

6. [Maximum mark: 6]
The continuous random variable (CRV) X has a probability density function
(pdf) given by... 
3x3 − 4x2 + 2x 0 ≤ x ≤ a
f (x) =
0, elsewhere

(a) Find the value of a. [2]

(b) Find E(X). [2]

(c) Find Var(X). [2]

7. [Maximum mark: 6]
Consider the CRV X with pdf:

k,

 0≤x≤2
f (x) = 2k, 2 ≤ x ≤ 3


0, elsewhere


where k ∈ R.
(a) Find k. [2]

(b) Find P(1.5 < X < 2.5). [4]

8. [Maximum mark: 6]
A CRV X has a pdf:

arccos(2x), 0 ≤ x ≤ b
f (x) =
0, elsewhere
Where a, b ∈ R.
The median of f (x) is 0.261799 to 6 decimal places.

(a) Find a and b. [2]

(b) Find the IQR of f (x). [4]

9. [Maximum mark: 14]
A barber notices that the time it takes for customers to have a hair cut, where
the CRV T is time in minutes, is modelled by the following pdf:

 1 x2 (6 − x), 0 ≤ x ≤ a


f (x) = 108
0, elsewhere


where a ∈ R.

(a) (i) Find a.

(ii) Find E(X) and Var(X). [4]

He charges customers $4 per minute (X) and then adds an extra service fee of
$6 to each bill. Let the CRV C be the amount he charges a customer.

(b) Find E(C) and Var(C). [2]

He notices that he is very happy when a haircut time (T ) is 1 standard deviation

(of T ) within the mean (of T ).

(c) He serves a customer who has a haircut of at least 3 minutes in length.

What is the probability the barber is very happy?. [4]