UNIVERSITI PERTAHANAN NASIONAL MALAYSIA

KEM SUNGAI BESI

57000 KUALA LUMPUR

GROUP ASSIGNMENT
STRATEGIC STUDIES DUS3022
SEMESTER 1 2023/2024

TOPIC: HOW CONVINCING IS THE ARGUMENT THAT WARS ARE RESULT OF

MISJUDGEMENT AND MISPERCEPTION?
CLASS: 1ZP65
LECTURER: Dr. Norhazlina Fairuz Binti Musa Kutty
NO. NAMA NO. MATRIK
1 ANIS ERINA BINTI MAT ZAID 2230702
2 FARHANI RIZKYA AULIA BINTI DEDI HIDAYAT 2230705
3 FONG XHINE HWEY 2230706
4 GAN SHI EN 2230707
5 NUR ELLYANA BINTI MOHD FAUZI 2230728

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 TABLE OF CONTENT
NO. TOPICS PAGE
1.0 INTRODUCTION 3
2.0 WARS ARE RESULT OF MISJUDGEMENT AND 4
MISPERCEPTION
2.1 SECURITY DILEMMA 4-5
2.1 HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS 6-7
2.3 COGNITIVE BIASES 8-9
2.4 CRISIS SITUATIONS 10-11
2.5 NATIONALISM AND GROUPTHINK 12
3.0 CONCLUSION 13
4.0 RESOURCES 14-15

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1.0 INTRODUCTION
The argument that wars are often the result of misjudgment and misperceptions is a

compelling and widely recognized perspective in the field of international relations and

conflict studies. While not all wars can be attributed solely to misjudgment and

misperception, these factors play a significant role in the outbreak and escalation of many

conflicts.

Wars are often the result of misjudgment and misperception, stemming from a variety

of factors such as miscalculations, misunderstandings, and biased interpretations of events.

These misjudgments can lead to escalating tensions, breakdowns in communication, and

ultimately armed conflicts. Whether it is a failure to accurately assess the intentions of other

nations or a misunderstanding of cultural or historical contexts, the impact of misjudgment

and misperception on the outbreak of wars cannot be understated.

In many historical and contemporary conflicts, misjudgment and misperception have

played a significant role in driving nations and groups into war. The inability to accurately

perceive the motivations and actions of others has led to a cycle of distrust and hostility,

fueling the path to armed confrontation. Understanding the root causes of misjudgment and

misperception is crucial in preventing future conflicts and promoting peaceful resolution of

disputes. In the following work, we will explore the various ways in which misjudgment and

misperception have contributed to past conflicts and examine potential strategies for

mitigating these factors in the pursuit of global peace and security.

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2.0 WARS ARE THE RESULTS OF MISJUDGEMENTS AND MISPERCEPTIONS

2.1 SECURITY DILEMMA

The term "security dilemma," first used by John Herz in 1950, has since been

thoroughly examined by a number of academics, including Robert Jervis, Charles Glaser, and

others. It observes how measures taken by one state to increase its security, such as armament

building, military force posture, and alliance formation which tend to decrease the security of

other states and to draw a reaction from them.

In some cases, security dilemma could be seen in the extremely tense relationship

between Iran and the United States. Presumably, the officials think that the United States and

its regional allies will be safer if they impose severe sanctions on Iran, threaten to topple its

government, launch cyberattacks against its nuclear infrastructure, and assist in forging

regional coalitions against it. On the other side, Saudi Arabia believes that meddling in

Yemen makes Riyadh safer, while Israel believes that killing Iranian scientists improves its

security. Iran’s capability to develop its own nuclear deterrent has increased the anxiousness

of the other states and make them feel less secure which would lead to the risk of war.

Apart from that, security dilemma can also be shown as one of the factors that caused

World War I in 1914. Mainly between Germany, Britain, and France, there has been an arms

race that has benefited arms manufacturers like the Krupp Company in Germany. Despite a

significant financial investment, Britain was able to build the HMS Dreadnought in 1906,

which was the most advanced and formidable warship in the world at the time and capable of

competing with the German military. Between 1908 and 1914, great nations including

Austria-Hungary, Germany, Russia, and Britain boosted their military spending by more than

50%. This has raised the insecurity among the states and the arms race ended up in war.

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 In this era of globalization, there are increasing number of states that possess nuclear

weapons, such as Russia, France, China, North Korea, United States and India. The risk of

nuclear weapons being used is huge since the past few decades, especially after the Cold War

era. For instance, the incident of Russian aggression in Ukraine and Western support for Kyiv

increased the effect among the countries that possess nuclear weapons in the world. The

development of nuclear weapons is troubling the world community as it acquire major threat

to global peace. This has shown that the possession of nuclear weapons is not only for

national defense purpose, but also to show the strength of a country.

In short, when a state's military might grows to the point where other states worry

about their own security because they don't know if the state with the stronger military would

use it for offensive purposes, this is known as a security dilemma. Thus, steps to increase

security may cause tensions, escalation, or confrontation with one or more other parties,

resulting in a situation that neither party really wants. Defensive actions can be misinterpreted

as offensive, leading to a cycle of arms buildups and increasing tensions.

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2.2 HISTORICAL PRECEDENTS
Historical assessments of historical conflicts frequently show instances when errors in

judgment and perception played a key role. Historical events can generate biases and

prejudices that influence how decision-makers view present events. Past confrontations may

have resulted in a lack of trust or a heightened sense of threat, altering perceptions in ways

that do not reflect the true intentions of other individuals. Misunderstandings and

misinterpretations of intentions led to the rise of tensions during the Cuban Missile Crisis and

the commencement of World War I, respectively.

In the Cold War and Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), the fierce competition and weapons

race during the Cold War resulted in the Cuban Missile Crisis, a period of high tension

between the United States and the Soviet Union. The United States' assessment of Soviet

missile installations in Cuba. The event emphasized the necessity of correct information and

the possible implications of misinformation, highlighting the need for diplomatic settlement

and crisis management. The lessons acquired during this crisis, including as the hazards of

brinkmanship and the significance of diplomatic solutions, continue to influence international

relations strategy, particularly in the management of nuclear threats.

The outbreak of World War I in 1914 was driven by a network of miscommunications

and misinterpretations among major European nations. Following the death of Archduke

Franz Ferdinand, Austria-Hungary issued a stern ultimatum to Serbia, and Germany provided

unequivocal assistance, triggering a chain reaction. Germany mistook Russia's mobilization

in support of Serbia for a direct danger, prompting a declaration of war on Russia and, later,

France. The invasion of Belgium, prompted by German fears of a two-front war, pulled the

UK into the battle. The alliance structure, patriotic fervor, and communication failures

heightened tensions. These errors escalated a small issue into a worldwide crisis,

demonstrating the disastrous effects of miscommunication on a global scale. The severe

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terms imposed on Germany by the Treaty of Versailles during World War I exacerbated

economic suffering and discontent in Germany. This milieu provided ideal ground for Adolf

Hitler's ascent and the onset of World War II. The lessons learnt in the aftermath of World

War I inspired postwar attempts to promote economic recovery and stability via organizations

such as the Marshall Plan.

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2.3 COGNITIVE BIASES

Cognitive bias is a phenomenon that occurs in cognitive psychology. A person who

experiences cognitive bias will have some information that has been believed to be true, so

that he tends to ignore things that are contrary. The result of this attitude is being able to

change the way we think, behave, evaluate and remember. (Psychological info, 2023). Our

cognitive biases allow us to look deeper into decisions and beliefs and not in terms of logic.

In addition, in confirmation bias Israel tends to look for and delve into information

that confirms the negative view of Palestine, without considering information that may lead

to a more objective view. This bias can give rise to negative perceptions and contribute to

unfair stereotypes. The American-sponsored peace plan, which is also known as the 'road

map', seems unable to resolve the issue of finding peace in Palestine and returning Bayt al-

Maqdis and the entire land to Muslims. Israel is also not serious about resolving this conflict.

It is clear when Israel so arrogantly built a separation wall between Israel and the borders of

Jerusalem. They seem to want to portray to the world that the Palestinian Muslim community

is violent, so the wall needs to be built to prevent Muslims from entering their area. This is a

clear proof of the psychological warfare played by Israel. America is known as the main

helper of Israel. In 2004 alone America channeled $2.3 billion in military aid and $500

million in economic aid to Israel. Why does America help Israel so much? Of course, it has

certain interests in the Middle East and only Israel can help America achieve its desired

agenda. (Mohd Nor, 2010)

Finally, dealing with the Palestinian conflict is not an easy matter, dealing with it is

not something that can happen without effort. It demands all the energy to restore the

consciousness of the ummah in ensuring that the oppression of Muslims does not continue

forever. Awareness efforts, no matter how small the effort, will really produce something that

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will definitely shake the land occupied by Israel. Muslims with the strength of their faith, will

not let their friends continue to suffer bad luck. Let's move towards creating concerned

communities and groups to raise the issue of the oppression of Palestinian Muslims at the

international level and further pressure Israel to comply with the official decisions of

influential bodies such as the UN and the UN Security Council. (Mohd Nor, 2010).

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2.4 CRISIS SITUATIONS

The claim that misinterpretation and poor judgment may lead to conflicts is frequently

supported by crisis circumstances. Decision-makers may experience increased strain and

uncertainty during times of crisis, which increases the likelihood of errors in judgment and

perception. There aren't many circumstances that can support this claim.

Time pressure is a major component that can lead to poor judgment and

misinterpretation in crisis circumstances, supporting the theory that these cognitive mistakes

can lead to conflicts. Decision-makers frequently must act quickly and decisively in times of

crisis while working under severe time restrictions. Due to the need to react quickly,

important information may not be carefully reviewed or processed in haste while making

decisions. This may lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the nature of the issue and the

best course of action. (Wilkenfeld & Brecher, 2022)

The Gulf War (1990–1991) stands out as one instance, especially the decision-making

process that resulted in the ground attack known as the "100-Hour War". Iraq invaded Kuwait

in August 1990 under the leadership of Saddam Hussein, sparking a global reaction. Under

President George H.W. Bush, the US spearheaded a coalition to stop the Iraqi invasion

(Jervis, 2013). The air campaign and the naval blockade were part of the conflict's early

stages. But the decision to go on the offensive with the ground forces was taken quite swiftly,

resulting in a brief but fierce struggle.

Additionally, ambiguity and uncertainty are characteristics of crises that make it

difficult for decision-makers to appropriately appraise the situation. People may fill in the

blanks with skewed assumptions or interpretations when there is a lack of clear information,

which can result in misconceptions regarding the nature of the situation and the motivations

of other parties. A deficiency of accurate and comprehensive information is frequently

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present in crisis circumstances. Critical decisions may need to be made by decision-makers

based on scant or ambiguous information. When decision-makers fill up knowledge gaps

with assumptions or interpretations that might not fully reflect the circumstances of the crisis,

mistakes might happen. A case in point of imprecise information and vagueness in the

run-up to a crisis is the 2003 Iraq War. Based on intelligence assessments that showed Iraq

had WMDs, including chemical, biological, and perhaps nuclear weapons, the decision to

attack the country was made (Lewandowsky et al., 2005). The lack of concrete evidence and

the doubts about Iraq's capacity to armament contributed significantly to the subsequent

events. Under the direction of President George W. Bush, the U.S. government produced

intelligence assessments claiming that Iraq, commanded by Saddam Hussein, was in

possession of WMD. According to these assessments, Iraq was aggressively working on

developing and accumulating nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. (Pfiffner, 2018)

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2.5 NATIONALISM AND GROUPTHINK

The argument asserting that wars are often the outcome of misjudgment and

misperception, particularly fueled by nationalism and groupthink. Nationalism, characterized

by an intense loyalty and devotion to one's nation, can lead to an inflated sense of superiority

and a skewed perception of others. This distorted perspective may contribute to the

misjudgment that diplomatic or non-violent solutions are insufficient, prompting nations to

resort to military actions.

Additionally, groupthink is a psychological phenomenon where individuals within a

group prioritize consensus over critical thinking which can amplify misperceptions. The term

was first used in 1972 by social psychologist Irving L. Janis. In the context of war, decision-

makers may succumb to collective biases, ignoring dissenting opinions and reinforcing each

other's flawed beliefs. This can result in a distorted perception of the adversary's intentions

and capabilities, further exacerbating the likelihood of armed conflict.

Groupthink and nationalism combine to create a toxic mixture that makes mistakes in

perception and judgment easy to make. Due to their intense sense of patriotism and the

impact of group dynamics, leaders might make poor judgments that escalate tensions and

result in the unfavorable conclusion of armed conflict. Thus, the link between

misunderstanding, nationalism, groupthink, and poor judgment highlights how crucial it is to

promote critical thinking, open communication, and international cooperation in order to

reduce the likelihood of conflict.

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3.0 CONCLUSION
In conclusion, the argument that wars are often the result of misjudgment and

misperception is compelling and multifaceted. Concepts such as the security dilemma,

historical precedents, cognitive biases, crisis situations, and the influence of nationalism and

groupthink collectively contribute to a narrative where conflicts emerge not only from

rational calculations but also from distorted perceptions and misjudgments. Understanding

and addressing these factors are crucial for developing strategies to prevent wars and promote

peaceful resolutions to international disputes. As humanity navigates the complexities of the

global stage, recognizing the role of misjudgment and misperception in the genesis of wars is

imperative for fostering a more secure and peaceful world.

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Brecher, M., & Wilkenfeld, J. (2022). A study of crisis. University of Michigan Press.

Halliday, F. (1994). The Gulf War 1990–1991 and the study of international
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Jervis, R. (2013). Understanding the Bush doctrine. In American Foreign Policy in a New
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