PRESENTATION

Energy Strategies and Transformation

2024 MMEC | Upstream Exploration

Prospects – Positioning
Mozambique E&P Sector for
Growth

Analene Enslin | Technical Research Principal | Commodity Insight Upstream

May 2024

Copyright © 2024 S&P Global.

Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Global.
Upstream – Four key issues shaping the future

Fossil Fuel Company Exploration Rising

Resilience Strategies Re-defined Costs

S&P Global Commodity Insights 2

 Upstream Exploration Prospects | May 2024

Global E&P CAPEX is rebounding, entering a plateau phase

• Spending plateau expected ~USD600 billion; lower than Global upstream E&P capex ($ billion)
historical highs during the mid-2010s, implying higher Onshore Offshore Pre-COVID-19 forecast

efficiencies given inflation since then 800

Forecast
700
600
• S&P Global UCCI (Upstream Capital Cost Index) has
500
increased 36% from its 2020 low 400
300
• Short term (2021–23): 200
100
– Spending jumped 39% from 2021→2022 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
(of which 10% cost inflation)

– Spending expected to increase 11% from 2022→2023 Year-on-year change in global upstream E&P capex
(of which 5% cost inflation) Capex in North America Capex in rest of the world Dated Brent (nominal)
150 120
– Conventional E&P makes up the majority of spending 100
100

Capex ($ billion)
50

Oil price ($/b)

• Medium term (2024–26): 0
80

-50 60
– Steady growth in E&P capex projected -100
40
-150
20
-200
As of May 2023
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
-250 0
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027
© S&P Global 2023

S&P Global Commodity Insights 3

 Upstream Exploration Prospects | May 2024

Exploration’s performance last 15 years – declining NFWs, declining volumes

Global conventional discovered volumes in 2023 as of Jan 15, 2024: 10.9 bln boe

Global conventional oil and gas discovered vs. NFWs Number of basins with at least one NFW or discovery
drilled, billion boe, well count
Liquids Gas NFW
Basins with discoveries Basins with NFW
70 2,000 300
Thousands

60 250
1,600
50
200
1,200
40
150
30
800
100
20
400
50
10

0 0 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Data compiled January 15th, 2024.

Sources: S&P Global Commodity Insights; EDIN.

S&P Global Commodity Insights 4

 Upstream Exploration Prospects | May 2024

Offshore Seismic Surveys

Significant acreage covered with offshore seismic
• Seismic activity focused on Zambezi Delta and
Prosperidade / Mamba / Rovuma Complex
• Prospects identified

5
 Upstream Exploration Prospects | May 2024

Wells drilled
More than 100 exploration wells drilled
• Exploration wells mostly concentrated in Northern
sections offshore and onshore in the South, after
interpretation of the seismic data
• The map shows successful and unsuccessful
exploration wells
• Green area onshore in the North shows the discovery
wells for the Pande and Temane fields
• Green wells in the North offshore, show the
successful wells in the Rovuma basin.

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 Upstream Exploration Prospects | May 2024

Discovered volumes
Awarded Contract Blocks
• The total remaining reserves in the northerns blocks
offshore is in excess of 120 TCF on 2P level
• Significant acreage taken up in Zambezi Delta region
in 6th licensing round
• Significant potential still possible in Zambezi Delta,
with limited exploration wells drilled thus far

7
 Upstream Exploration Prospects | May 2024

Capex Spending to increase in coming years

Rovuma LNG project to headline spending in next 5 years
2023 top
2023 top fivefive
capexcapex andspend
and decom decom spend 2028 top
2028five capex
top five capexand decom
and decom spend
spend

PTTEP
Mozambique Area 1
Ltd, 7%
China National
Bharat Petro
Petroleum Corp, 5%
Resources Ltd Other, 1%
Ventures Total Mozambique Exxon Mobil Corp, Other, 1%
Mozambique BV, Area 1 Ltda, 23% 6%
9%
Eni SpA, 6%

Ongc Videsh Ltd,

9%
Korea Gas Corp,
10% Mozambique
Rovuma Venture
Beas Rovuma SpA, 52%
Energy Mitsui E&P
Mozambique Ltd, Mozambique Area 1
9% Ltd, 17% GALP-Exploracao e
Producao Petrolifera
LDA, 10%
Sasol Petroleum
Mozambique Ltda, Empresa Nacional Empresa Nacional
12% De De
Hidrocarbonetos, Hidrocarbonetos,
13% 10%

Data compiled April, 2024. Data compiled April, 2024.

Only considering assets > 10 Bboe. Only considering assets > 10 Bboe.

Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights upstream E&P content (Vantage). Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights upstream E&P content (Vantage).

© 2024 S&P Global. © 2024 S&P Global.

8
 Upstream Exploration Prospects | May 2024

Where things are standing in Mozambique at the moment

Offshore discoveries from a decade ago – some are still not in production
2023 - top
2023 Topparent companies
Parent net resources
Companies net(MMboe)
Resources (Mmboe) Mozambique – exploration
Mozambique wells
- exploratory wells 10-year
10-year

Liquids Gas . Onshore Offshore

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 12

TotalEnergies SE

Empresa Nacional De Hidrocarbonetos 10

China National Petroleum Corp

8
Mitsui Group

Eni SpA
6
Exxon Mobil Corp

Oil & Natural Gas Corp Ltd

4
Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd

PTT Exploration and Production Public Co Ltd

2

Galp Energia SGPS SA

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

0
Data compiled April, 2024 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

MMboe = million barrels of oil equivalent; MMbbl = million barrels. Data compiled April, 2024

Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights upstream E&P content (EDIN). Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights upstream E&P content (EDIN).

© 2024 S&P Global. © 2024 S&P Global.

9
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