MASTERS DISSERTATION

Aviation Supply Chain

Impact of Covid-19 on Aviation Fuel Supply Chain in terms of changes in Air Traffic Service: A
study of Pakistan Airline Industry

Hamza Arshid (B00500229)

Msc Logistics and Supply Chain Management
University of West of Scotland, Business School

August, 2022

I declare that from entire content of this dissertation report which is not belong to me is
acknowledge. I have read and understand the part of dissertation handbook which deals with
plagiarism*.

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 MASTERS DISSERTATION

Session 2021/2022

School of business and enterprise

Library Registration

Surname Arshid

Forename Hamza

Student ID B00500229

Degree MSc Logistics and Supply Chain

Management

Supervisor Alan Macdonald

Research title Impact of Covid-19 on Aviation Fuel Supply

Chain in terms of changes in Air Traffic
Service: A study of Pakistan Airline Industry

2
 DECLARATION WITH SUBMISSION OF DISSERTATION

UWS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

DISSERTATION DECLARATION

Research title: Impact of Covid-19 on Aviation Fuel Supply Chain in terms of changes in Air
Traffic Service: A study of Pakistan Airline Industry

Student Name: Hamza Arshid

Matric No.: B00500229 Date: 5th August, 2022

Course: MSc Logistics and Supply Chain Management

Supervisor Name: Alan Macdonald

I declare that from entire content of this dissertation report which is not belong to me is
acknowledge. I have read and understand the part of dissertation handbook which deals with
plagiarism*.

Student’s signature: _____________________

*University Statement on Plagiarism and Cheating can be retrieved on student intranet at

following address:
http://www.student.UWS.ac.uk/stuadmin/reggdpl.htm

______________________________________________________________________________
For office use only
Date coursework revised:

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 I. Abstract

This research is aimed to investigate the impact Covid-19 on Aviation fuel supply chain and air
traffic services in the perspective of Pakistan airline industry. It has been carried out by analyzing
the supportive literatures related to impact on Covid-19 on aviation fuel supply chain prior
proceeding to primary research. Literature review uncovers that the outbreak of Covid-19 causes
an immense fall in globally aviation industry and Pakistan’s aviation industry is not exceptional.
Pakistan airline industry endure a significant loss due to air travel restrictions which causes decline
in passenger demand. A strong influence of covid-19 on aviation fuel supply chain and air traffic
services has been found through literature review.

To analyze this influence in the perspective of Pakistan airline industry, a primary research has
been conducted in this research report which is based on quantitative approach. This research
intents to carry out the extent at which Covid-19 has impacted the aviation fuel supply chain and
air traffic services of Pakistan airline industry.

The primary research of this study find out that Covid-19 impacts 61.9% of fuel supply chain and
air traffic services of Pakistan airline industry. Pakistan airline industry is highly impacted by
Covid-19 in terms of fuel supply chain and air traffic services. This dissertation fills a research gap
as this research scenario has not been considered previously.

Keywords: Covid-19, Fuel supply chain, Air traffic services, and Pakistan airline industry

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II. Acknowledgement

First and foremost, I would like to thank God Almighty who bless me with capability and strength
which support me to complete my dissertation.

Supervisor- History of entire captivate works into witness that a great work cannot be accomplish
without continue and active support by a person. In this regard, I would like to thank my supervisor
Mr. Alan Macdonald for his abundant supervision and providing me this golden opportunity to
conduct a research under his supervision. His continue efforts and assistance is highly appreciated
which boosts my confidence and enthusiasm. Effective accomplishment of this dissertation was
not positive with his explanations and crucial time. It was an honor to work under his supervision.

Family and Friends- I would like to extend my thanks to my family and friends for their moral
support and patience which contributes positively and makes me focused towards my research.

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III. Copyright
Copyright of this research report remain with author. No numerical or theoretical data from this
report should be publish without his written agreement and each information derive form it must
be acknowledge.

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Table of Contents
Declaration ................................................................................................................................................ 3
I. Abstract......................................................................................................................................... 4
II. Acknowledgement .............................................................................................................. 5
III. Copyright ...................................................................................................................................... 6
Table of figures ............................................................................................................................ 9
IV. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 10
1.1. Research Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 10
1.2. Research Aim ........................................................................................................................................ 12
1.3. Problem Statement .............................................................................................................................. 13
1.4. Scope of Study ...................................................................................................................................... 13
1.5. Research Method ................................................................................................................................. 14
1.6. Relevance to Supply Chain ................................................................................................................... 14
1.7. Division and structure of report ........................................................................................................... 14
V. LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................................... 15
2.1. Introduction to literature review ......................................................................................................... 15
2.2. Theoretical Perspective of Existing Studies .......................................................................................... 16
2.3. Justification of framework.................................................................................................................... 18
2.4. Empirical findings of existing theory .................................................................................................... 20
2.5. Conclusion of literature review ............................................................................................................ 22
VI. RESEARCH DESIGN & METHODOLOGY ............................................................................... 25
3.1. Introduction to research design and methodology.............................................................................. 25
3.2. Research approach ............................................................................................................................... 26
3.3. Data collection ...................................................................................................................................... 27
3.4. Data analysis ......................................................................................................................................... 29
3.5. Discussion of problem .......................................................................................................................... 30
3.6. Limitations of methodological approach ............................................................................................. 31
3.7. Ethical considerations .......................................................................................................................... 32
VII. FINDINGS, DISCUSSIONS, AND RESULTS ANALYSIS ................................................................ 33
4.1. Introduction to findings and results analysis .................................................................................... 33
4.2. Mahalanobis Distance ....................................................................................................................... 34

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 4.3. Reliability statistics ............................................................................................................................ 36
4.4. Correlation Coefficient ...................................................................................................................... 38
4.5. Regression Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 40
4.6. Conclusion of findings and results .................................................................................................... 43
VIII. CONCLUSION, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND LIMITATIONS ....................................................... 44
5.1. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 44
5.2. Recommendations................................................................................................................................ 46
5.3. Limitations ............................................................................................................................................ 49
IX. REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 51
Appendix A .................................................................................................................................................. 58

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Table of Figures

Figure 1.1. Mahalanobis Distance .......................................................................................................... 34

Figure 1.2. Reliability Statistics- Impact of Covid-19 ........................................................................ 37
Figure 1.3. Reliability statistics- Aviation fuel supply chain ............................................................. 37
Figure 1.4. Correlation coefficient ......................................................................................................... 39
Figure 1.5. Model Summary- Regression Analysis .......................................................................40
Figure 1.6. Analysis of variance (ANOVA)-Regression Analysis ................................................41
Figure 1.7. Coefficient- Regression Analysis ................................................................................42
Figure 1.8. Covid-19 has an impact on aviation fuel supply chain ................................................45
Figure 1.9. Regular flight operations leads to regular demand for aviation fuel supply chain ......46

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IV. INTRODUCTION
1.1.Research Introduction

The outbreak of Coronavirus pandemic 2019 create an exceptional impact on the public health and
businesses around the world. Aviation industry is considered as one of the most substantial primary
contributors in the spread of COVID-19. As consequences of COVID-19 restrictions, many of the
countries reduced their air transport and Pakistan is from one of these countries. The end result
was the prominent reduction in the number of international and domestic passenger flights.
International aviation market suffered more as compare to domestic market, excluding the air
logistic airlines which suffered less. In the perspective of association with other airports, Northern
airlines undergoes a more intense and sever drop (Hassan, 2021).

Referring to International Civil Aviation Organization, at the last of March 2020, about 20
commercial airlines entirely stopped their flight operations and around 12 airlines had stopped
entire international flights all over the world. The loss of aviation industry caused a destructive
deterioration in the GDP of world approximately 0.02% to 0.12% as estimated for the first quarter
of 2020. Considerably interrupted aviation industry triggered a consequent decline in fuel
consumption by aircraft and its emissions. Fuel consumption by airlines effects its profit but its
emission has negative impact on climate like CO2 is contributing about 36% to 51% of entire
aviation impact on climate (Atkinson, 2018).

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In 21st century, first two decades were estimated as the boosted period for air transportation. Air
traveling demand was growing gradually from last two decades. Each year, with the increase of
air traffic demand, usage of means of transportation also increased. Supply chain management
needs inclusive accounting for entire stages which demands for coordination and at the same time
harmonize their operations parallel. In term of developing digitization of actions, enterprises
indicate its importance for the latest information system and also for sustainable development
which in turn contribute in the supply chain, develop globally networks, but restructuring activities
also needs to be undertaken. The end result of these actions by operators which supplies the
aviation fuels is the accurate response to such dynamics in the environment of market. Except
these concerns which are associated with the indications of the requirements of usage sustainable
fuels, the equipment’s efficiency and effectiveness of devices which are linked with the aviation
fuel supply have great significance in the processes of logistic management. Those airlines which
are based on airports depends on the greatest degree of prices of fuel supplies and reliability of
supplies, whereas other relevant operators can manage their operational planning more flexible.
Some of the airlines utilize a system of tankering which allows an aircraft to fuel with excessive
fuel to return without refueling from the expensive airports.

However, using tanks is difficult to operate and has an impact the effectiveness of the cost of the
connection made. Tanging burns more fuel than ever it is necessary, thus producing greater gas
emissions, and distorting the true opposition to the location of the Pakistan air transport market. In
this case, the airport manager wishes to enhance his splendor the airport for all customers (airlines,
agents, and petrol suppliers) should play work between those groups. Because of the truth made
by the management framework. Now they can no longer participate in the petrol trade, in many
cases the effect on the petrol machine the operating version of the airport can be used with the help
of using the appropriate airport control petrol infrastructure is essential to the operation of this
machine. It has to be said there is no single, dominant version for transferring airports. Direct
answers to a given airport depend on other factors, each internal, which includes the scale of the
airport, its environment, layout, and exterior the state of the petrol market and others. However, in
practice, a few generally, Exemplary answers have been developed that can represent a great idea
Pakistan airlines fuel brings market. In terms of fuel delivery at the airport itself, Europe's top
airports have two means of transport opportunity. The most commonly used are pipes and rail or
road tanks. The fuel delivery machine is the ultimate result of cost-benefit calculations. While

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Airports that offer a variety of small aircraft can be clearly identified by the use of road tanks, it
has no money at major airports (Manag, 2020).

The implementation of the necessary laws and procedures for all governments will take time to
coordinate; however, there may be a lot of information and management drivers that they can use
to help ‘start the sky’. The re-launch of international aviation will require extensive consultation
on responses and measures to control threats in response to COVID-19. Despite various national
laws, international cooperation within the aviation industry remains strong. As the airline and
business rules of the airline begin to improve, it is of the utmost importance that the proper business
practices of executive bodies and government must be followed continuously in order to control
the risks and epidemics of the COVID-19 epidemic. In passenger travel clauses, each information
from the departure and departure airports, the aircraft themselves, and the delivery chain operators
want to make sure to control the most common threats (Manag, 2020).

1.2.Research Reason (Problem indication)

Change in air traffic demand leads to change in number of factors which include flight frequency,
airport operations, and fuel consumption (Xue, 2021). Fuel consumption is the main factor of this
study and how Covid-19 has impacted the fuel consumption supply chain of Pakistan airline
industry what was the consequences of this impact will be extract the outcomes of this study.
Covid-19 outbreak in 2020 has reduced the passenger flight operations as compare to 2019. This
study will elaborate the airlines includes in Pakistan airline industry and their responses to less
passengers from the perception of aircraft utilization and its impact on fuel consumption.

Research Aim

In this study, Pakistan airline industry has been taken into consideration and the impact of Covid-
19 on the supply chain of fuel consumption will be analyzed. The results of this study will add
academic knowledge about Pakistan airline industry. Covid-19 has ground 90% flights which
reduces airline operations and fuel consumption (Singh, 2015). Fuel consumption also varies from
the type of aircraft which in turn affects its financial performance. As some aircrafts consume high
amount of fuel but latest aircrafts tend to consume lessen amount of fuel which are called fuel
efficient aircrafts. All of these factors will take into consideration which conducting this study
(D.K.Wasiuk, 2015).

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1.3.Problem Statement

Even though the immense effect of Covid-19 on the airline industry of Pakistan has been studies
actively, in which the short-term and long-term aspects as still not clear as many of the countries
are still struggling with rebound of flights and stable the flights operations and take it back to the
position as it was before Covid-19. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s positive control over the Covid-19
support us with an opportunity to quantify and analyze certain impacts of Covid-19 which mainly
includes fuel consumption as subject of this study. Pakistan’s domestic air travel demand has been
recovered greatly at the end of 2022. In this research report, impact of Covid-19 on fuel
consumption will be mainly focused for the Pakistan airline industry. Airlines under study will
includes Pakistan International Airline, AirBlue, SereneAir, and AirSial. The fuel consumption by
these airlines will be analyzed and compared before and after the Covid-19 situation.

Research Questions

1.3.1. How Covid-19 impacts the air traffic services?

1.3.2. What is the impact of Covid-19 on aviation fuel supply chain of Pakistan airline
industry?

1.3.3. What is the impact of changes in air traffic services on aviation fuel supply chain?

Research Objectives

1.3.4. To analyze the impact of Covid-19 on air traffic services.

1.3.5. To analyze the impact of Covid-19 on aviation fuel supply chain of Pakistan airline industry.

1.3.6. To analyze the impact of changes in air traffic services on aviation fuel supply chain due to
Covid-19

1.4.Scope of Study

The worldwide consumption of fuel by commercial airlines increased as estimated in every year
since 2009 and it has reached great of 95 billion gallons estimated in 2019. Hence, because of the
coronavirus pandemic, the consumption of fuel has been reduced up to 52 billion gallons only
estimated in 2020 but extended at 57 billion gallons in 2021. The most significant factor includes
the growth in air transport dynamics along with the growth in the economy of world through

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increase in GDP and this leads to increase in income of customers which enhanced their lifestyles.
But due to Covid-19, aviation industry of Pakistan has greatly disrupted and there is a significance
reduction in air traveling demand and flight operations has been estimated. Less number of flight
operations leads to less fuel consumption by aircrafts. In the assessment of these severe changes
impact the key indicators which indicates the value of companies involves in aviation industry, the
effectiveness of both enhancements in supply chain and resources tends to be used and most
significant is the aviation fuel, which is the most focused subject in this research paper.

1.5.Research Method

For this research, primary source of data is used by conducting a survey. As data have been
collected from survey questionnaire, hence, this study will be quantitative study method.
Quantitative study helps to analyze numerical data by using statistical tools. In this regard, the
results of this research is based on numerical data which has been collected through primary
sources and analyzed by performing certain statistical tests. In term of research approach,
“deductive research approach” has been used for this study. Deductive research leads to
application and testify of existing theory. “Impact of Covid-19 on Aviation Fuel Supply Chain in
terms of Changes in Air Traffic Services” is already existing theory but this theory will be
implement and testify in the perspective of Pakistan Airline Industry. Research strategy for this
study is “explanatory research.” Data will be collected by spreading survey questionnaire to the
target population.

1.6.Relevance to Supply Chain

Supply chain is a network among suppliers and companies to distribute products or services. This
research is based on aviation fuel supply chain which is directly relevance to the field of supply
chain. Aviation fuel has been supply at airport for aircrafts operations by the suppliers. In supply
chain, companies prepares jet fuel and supply at different airports. This indicates that aviation fuel
supply chain is centered in the field of supply chain.

1.7.Division and Structure of report

This report has been structured in five divisions.

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 1.7.1. 1st division is based on introduction in which reason of conducting this research has
been explained. Furthermore introduction also contains problem statement, purpose,
scope, methodology, and relation of study with supply chain.

1.7.2. 2nd division is regarding literatures review in which existing theoretical and empirical
findings of existing theories has been explained thoroughly.

1.7.3. 3rd division is based on research design.

1.7.4. 4th division consist of results and discussion of findings. This division will is most
significance as results will be explain.

1.7.5. 5th division is about conclusion, limitation, and recommendations.

V. LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1.Introduction to literature review

This literature review provides the information regarding the impact of Covid-19 on aviation fuel
supply chain and also how Covid-19 has shift the air traffic services. Each of the industry has been
impacted due to Covid-19 and aviation industry is also from one of those industries. There are
number of researches has been conducted over the impact of Covid-19 and the study will also add
value in the existing knowledge regarding impact of Covid-19 on aviation fuel supply chain in the
perspective of Pakistan airline industry (Maroof, 2021). This research has not been conducted
before in the perspective of Pakistan airline industry which indicates a clear gap. A research gap
exists in research area of impact of Covid-19 on aviation fuel supply chain and air traffic services
in the perspective of Pakistan airline industry. There is a prominent change has been observed in
the behavior of passengers due to Covid-19 crisis which creates travel restrictions and also
economic crisis which as a result create a huge drop in demand for airline services. It has been
estimated by IATA that revenue passenger kilometer has been dropped by 90% in 2020 and still it
is down up to 75%. This downfalls also impacts the fuel accounting for the airline services.
Decrease in Air Traffic demand leads to less operations and this lower the fuel consumption for
air operations. This outbreak of Covid-19 has an exceptional impact on the public life globally and
this virus has infected humans health (Melas, 2020). Global respond to reduce the spread of Covid-
19 is to slow down emerging cases and recover the existing once. To reduce the impact of Covid-

15
19 on human health and to avoid its spread most of the countries restricted travel by air. Pakistan
and many other countries restricted their air travel operations to minimize the spread of Covid-19
(Beth, 2020). It has been investigated that aviation industry remains one of the most initial and
prominent contributor to the spread of Covid-19. Due to this reason most of the countries reduced
and restrict the air transport services which are linked with the pandemic centers (Deb, 2015). As
a result, there was a huge decrease in the ratio of International passenger and domestic flights as
compared to domestic market international market has suffered as were depression except those
airlines which were handling air logistics operations and outperforming of ultra-long-haul flights
in other business models. It is general that airport is always connected to several other countries
and it is arrival point for many other nationalities. This perspective of connectivity with certain
airports causes the sharp drop in air traffic demand for passenger traveling (MuhammetDeveci,
2022). From 2019 to 2020 it has been estimated by International Civil Aviation Organization dad
Pakistan airline industry has faced as were decline in flight operations which has impacts the GDP
of Pakistan. To resume the flight operations Pakistan airline industry requires to redesign SOP's to
resume the flight operations and also minimize this spread of Covid-19. Significant disrupted in
aviation industry and specifically airline industry caused a prominent variation in aircraft
emissions and fuel consumption (Scheelhaase, 2022). Decline in fuel consumption has also
impacts the airline profit and fuel burning emission from aircraft which affects climate and
environment of country. For instance carbon dioxide is contributed about 36% to 51% of total
aviation impact on climate. This carbon dioxide emission and fuel consumption has been impacted
by Covid-19. As mention above that Covid-19 caused a severe decline in passenger flow by air to
reduce the spread of Covid-19 and this results in reduce Air Traffic operations. Reduction in Air
Traffic operations is directly linked with the amount of fuel consumption (Albers, 2020).

2.2.Theoretical Perspective of Existing Studies

Covid-19 was spread around the world and it impacted globally industries and sectors. Covid-19
caused a sharp decline in the financial and economic situation of countries. Airlines from around
the world has been impacted due to Covid-19 crisis (S.Brown, 2020). Reason to choose this area
is because it directly aligns with aims and objects of this research report. Research aim is to
analyses and conclude the impact of Covid-19 on aviation fuel supply chain of Pakistan airline
industry. In 2020 World Health Organization (WHO) claim that Covid-19 has spread around the

16
world and cases are gradually increases. Their word certain strategies has been used by each of the
country to control this spread of Covid-19 (Benz, 2022). Several measures had taken to overcome
the spread of Covid-19 and to stable the disrupted situation. In this regard, government of each
country had announced to district the cross border flight operations. Among all, airline industry is
one of the most impacted industry due to pandemic crisis. Commercial flight operations was
restricted by the government and almost all passenger aircrafts were remain on ground. Along with
airline operations obviously airport operations were also impacted. Both Aviation and non-aviation
activities has great contribution to enhance the economy of country (S.Brown, 2020). As airport
were not in stable condition due to which non-aviation revenue was not generated as before
pandemic. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) - fuel made from biogenic feedstock that includes
agricultural residues and municipal waste, or through subsequent SAF technology that combines
the emissions of liquids from CO2 refined and carbon seize - will play a key role in achieving this
change (Abate, 2020). SAF is very active in tackling carbon emissions on long-haul aircraft and
has incredible revenue now no longer needs any major gadget or infrastructure investment, if you
think it can be mixed with regular jet gas. Considering the long-term lead of a new product of new
technologies such as hydrogen and electricity that is empowered to return to the market place, SAF
is a way to make major advances faster, with each flight and short haul aircraft (Davies, 2018).

Most of the researches has indicates that airline industry has been impacted immensely due to
Covid-19 and it will take time to recover the crisis. Aviation industry was gradually growing from
2009 until 2019 (Albers, 2020). This decade was fortune period for aviation industry. Major
function of Aviation fuel is to power the aircraft. It is very common that aircraft cannot be operate
without fuel consumption. When aircrafts were on ground during the Covid-19, then fuel was
required only to handle the cargo operations (Levy, 2016). Passenger operations were restricted to
avoid the spread of Covid-19 and passenger handling aircrafts remains on ground during the entire
period of Covid-19. This indicates that aviation fuel consumption was reduced during pandemic
crisis as there was no requirement of fuel for passenger handling aircrafts (BenjaminBauer, 2020).
It has been clearly define by many researchers that Covid-19 has significant impact on aviation
fuel supply chain in their research conducted in different countries of world (Adrienne, 2020).
Another indication of impact of covet on aviation fuel supply chain is the carbon dioxide emission
from aircrafts fuel burning. The carbon dioxide emission from aircrafts has contributed less in
environment during the pandemic. This indicates that less fuel consumption happens during the

17
covered because of which fuel emission was decrease as compared to pre-pandemic contribution
of carbon dioxide in environment (PaoloBeria, 2011).

2.3.Justification of Framework

In the duration of 2015 to 2019, fuel consumption and fuel supplies for aircraft operations were
stable at some level at airports. Decline in air traffic at airports of Pakistan in the winter results in
lesser deliveries. A period of analysis which includes summer holidays there was a growth in air
traffic was estimated which indicates that the supply of fuel towards aviation activities or for the
aircraft operations has been increased (SilveiraPereira, 2021). On the other hand during the years
of 2020 and 2021 which was the years when spread and impact of pandemic Covid-19 was at its
peak, there has been estimated a reduction in air traffic demand which directly impacts the
variation in aviation fuel demand (YassineDabachine, 2020). This clearly indicates that variation
in air traffic demand will directly impacts the demand for aviation fuel supply chain (I.Czerny,
2021). The relationship among deliveries volume and Air Traffic operations were very noticeable
before the pandemic Covid-19 (Forsyth, 2020). In existing theories it has been clearly mention that
there is a strong relationship between the volume of air operations and amount of aviation fuel
supply chain delivered at the airports for the aircraft operations (Dabachine, 2020). When studies
conducted they research on the area of Aviation fuel supply chain and impact of comedy 19 then
they found a positive relation between these two variables i.e. Covid-19 and aviation fuel supply
chain.

This indicates that Covid-19 and aviation fuel supply chain are directly correlated to each other.
An increase in Air Traffic demand will lead to increase in demand for aviation fuel supply chain
at airports for aircraft operations (FelipeRuiz-Moreno, 2021). This positive relation indicates that
when the number of operations will increase then the requirement for aviation fuel will also
increase (StefanGössling, 2020). Most of the existing studies concludes their results which
indicates the positive relation among Covid-19 and aviation fuel supplies chain. Before Covid-19,
huge amount of fuel were delivered at airports available in Pakistan and during the Covid-19
significant decline in aviation fuel supply chain has been estimated by numerous existing studies
(Graham, 2020). Most of the existing studies concludes their results which indicates the positive
relationship among Covid-19 and aviation fuel supplies chain. Before Covid-19, huge amount of
fuel were delivered at airports available in Pakistan and during the Covid-19 significant decline in

18
aviation fuel supply chain has been estimated by numerous existing studies (L.Lamb, 2020). The
results of these analysis indicates the relationship among aviation fuel supply chain for the aircraft
and air traffic is found to be strong and significant. It has been found in many researches that the
ratio of Aviation fuse supply chain and air operations were not same before Covid-19 (ErikLinden,
2021). This statement clearly defined at Covid-19 has create significant variation in aviation fuel
supplies chain at airports. This area of research will also be study in this report in the perspective
of Pakistan airline industry. Most of the studies have also compared this situation of Aviation fuel
supply chain at airports after Covid-19 and they have completed that the situation is being stable
from the period of March 2020 to December 2021 (XavierFageda, 2015). These findings of other
relevant studies directly support the field of this research and theoretical framework. Reduction in
demand for air traffic services have contribution to manage the airline fuel supply chain in more
efficient manner, despite the concept of variation in fuel prices in the Global market (Macilree,
2020). It has been informed by IATA that in July 2020 the fuel prices were 45% lesser then a year
before. This indicates that after Covid-19 when the aviation fuel supply chain tends to be rise due
to resume Air Traffic services, price of Aviation fuel has been increases. For airline operations,
few supply is the major expense which covers approximately 15% to 20% of entire expenditure.
These variation in fuel prices and aviation fuel structure will convince Airlines to consider the
purchase of fuel efficient aircrafts which will cause less fuel burning and reduction in carbon
dioxide emission (WeiLiu, 2021). When data analysis has been conducted in many empirical
findings then it has been notice that there is a strength among the relationship between fuel delivery
and a traffic services in the Covid-19 period as compared to the situation before Covid-19
(EmanNaboush, 2020). Hence, the theoretical framework justification has been conducted and find
that there is a prominent decrease has been estimated in air transport services and also decline in
revenue from airports and Airlines services which have essential contribution in the optimization
of airport resource management like fuel (Maneenop, 2020). It is worth two mention as the result
of empirical findings that there are many bodies in the perspective of supply chain in aviation
operations (SimgeSamanci, 2021). These entities includes ground service providers, airport
managers, fuel operators, airlines with conflict of interest. Therefore a greater level of alliance of
airline operations with fuel consumption might have huge efficiency to manage the complex
operations of supply chain and conflict of interest of mentioned entities which are forming the
supply chain (Dunn, 2020). For example the attractiveness for the airlines towards and airport

19
enhances with the reduction in aviation fuel cost, but on the other hand for ground handling agent
and supplier increase in fuel price is more significant. A greater dependence among the aviation
fuel supplies and deliveries and number of air operation performed or also important features
which contributes to reduce the delivery cost by providing greater service to carriers at the same
time. Successful control of Covid-19 is highly appreciated which has been control at the end of
2020 and the air travel demand has been resumed and fully recovered (LucasTisdall, 2020).
Pakistan airline industry has resumed its domestic and international flights to operate full volume
of flights. These findings has mention that they believe that efficient safety during air travel should
be remain into consideration to avoid any future disruptions. As a traffic has gain huge demand
for passenger travelling and this leads to increase in air operations (Schultz, 2020). In turn, this
will also leads to increase in demand for aviation fuel supply chain to Airlines. Pakistan airline
industry should focus to buy fuel efficient aircrafts in order to reduce the unnecessary cost and
make effective use of existing resources and passenger aircraft can be used for cargo aircraft
(Smith, 2020).

2.4.Empirical Findings of existing studies

The pandemic Covid-19 has interrupted the entire business operations in entire industries globally.
In this regard, airline industry is one of the most effected and first industry that was impacted
because of this spread of Covid-19. The vaccine for Covid-19 has been prepared after a year which
cause somehow delay to control and recover health issues due to Covid-19. In order to control the
spread of Covid-19 Pakistan government had restricted the cross country transportation via
Airlines. Airline business and its market value had sunk since the introduction of Covid-19 till its
recovery. This destruction in airline industry and other Global markets motivates to conduct a
research on the impact of Covid-19 on aviation fuel supply chain and also to measure the entire
operations of airline industry in the world (MariusGilbert, 2020). The empirical findings of
previous studies and literature review indicates that airline business has suffered a huge
catastrophic condition. Empirical findings of previous studies has also conclude that Covid-19 has
not only impact the aviation fuel supplies in but also entire airline operations and airport
management system. In the response of Covid-19 many airports and its policy makers had taken
several actions to avoid the spread of Covid-19 and to resume the flight operations (MegersaAbate,
2020). The aviation industry has become the Central and significant part to focus because aviation

20
industry has prominent contribution in the GDP of every country. Any disruption in aviation
industry will leads to variation in the GDP of country. Aviation industry has become major
discussion as infected by Covid-19 because major number of leads has been grounded which word
serving the passenger flow across the countries (David, 2020). It has been prominent visualize in
the past years that aviation industry was growing and developing. However many empirical
findings have shown that not all airports were equally impacted by Covid-19 because the impact
was observed as to change in customer habits due to lockdown measures (H.Akbar, 2020)
(MuhammetDeveci, 2022). The situation of airline industry of Pakistan world quite different
before the crisis of covid-19. Particularly, air transportation is one of the major sector of Pakistan
which has been great source of productivity and profitability (MariaIacus, 2020). There are number
of sectors associated with aviation industry despite airport and aircraft. There are number of
stakeholders and shareholders involves in Pakistan aviation industry. All associated sectors with
aviation industry has been disturbed due to the crisis of Covid-19. Impact of Covid-19 has shifting
the landscape of Pakistan aviation industry (Coelho1, 2020). The Pakistan government stopped the
air traveling and passenger flow cross border in 2020 which led all of the Airlines to involve in
huge cost cutting measures. With the unfolding continuation and extensive understanding provides
the guideline for recovery of disruptions which has been impacted due to Covid-19, Pakistan
airlines have sorted out in number of responses along with preserve and they have also modified
and remove some strategies which significantly involved governments to provide the required
liquidity. The empirical findings of certain studies has conclude that comedy 19 has immensely
impacted the Pakistan airline industry (FeiHuang, 2020). Number of aircraft has been grounded as
passenger demand has not been fully recovered full stop as compared to Commercial operations,
logistic operations of Pakistan aviation industry has not been severely impacted. The consumption
of fuel by commercial Airlines was gradually increases globally since 2009 to 2019. The aviation
industry was gradually gaining growth and development from past 10 years. However because of
the pandemic Covid-19 the consumption of fuel has been dropped by 52 billion gallons in 2020
and it has been reached up to 57 billion gallons in 2021 (Romagosa, 2020). This finding of
empirical study has clearly in forms that Covid-19 has immensely impact the fuel consumption by
Airlines full stop as due to Covid-19 Air transportation for passenger flow was restricted and due
to detection in flight operation for passenger flow the fuel consumption was directly impacted. The
empirical finding of existing studies has also provide a clear comparison among the situation of

21
commercial Airlines before the pandemic Covid-19 and also after Covid-19. Since the destruction
in aviation industry along with growth of economic relation globally, the experience of commercial
aviation was growing and developing in the recent period till 2019 (Monika Bal, 2021). The
commercial Airlines was generating revenue about 838 billion dollars globally in 2019. From 2009
to 2019 it has been estimated that passenger demand for commercial air operations was gradually
increases while demand for Logistic traffic was also increasing (MITRA, 2020). This increase in
the air Logistic traffic provides an idea that there is a chance to Rapid development of e-commerce
and this sector was expected to continue growth for future before the Covid-19. Let's considered
the commercial aviation after the Covid-19 under the light of empirical findings. In the duration
of 2020 aviation industry estimated as it has generated only 373 billion dollars in terms of revenue.
This sharp decline happened as a result of pandemic Covid-19 (Xue, 2021). In the first 6 months
of 2020 the impact of Covid-19 has paralyzed aviation industry globally which provides that
countries have imposed lockdown to control the spread of Covid-19 and also restricted
international flights because of the pandemic (Bartle, 2021). Because of this lockdown more and
more passenger flights were remained at low level and the air freight capacity has also remain
unbalanced globally. In the second half of 2020 the contribution of fried operations in aviation
industry was estimated at 78 percent (Fahriye Merdivenci, 2021). Before Covid-19 Pakistan
aviation industry was estimated as 50 percent of commercial operations and 50 percent of freight
operations. As commercial operations of airlines remains less due to restricted cross border
passenger flights and the freight operations were continue, the contribution percentage of cargo
operation has increases as compared to the percentage of commercial operations (Leończuk, 2021).
All these variations in flight operations has directly related to fuel consumption. Empirical findings
have conclude that lesser flight operations leads to lesser fuel consumption. Supply chain of fuel
at airports has been estimated as low in gallons as compared to the supply before Covid-19. In
2021 there is a certain stability has been noticed in flight operations. The aviation fuel supply chain
tends to be stable with the stability of commercial and freight operations (Kong, 2010).

2.5.Conclusion of literature review

Although they impact of Covid-19 has hit the airline performance harder than other sectors
associated with aviation industry. Such impact on airline industry has not been occurred before
Covid-19. During 2012 to 2019, a great environment which was favorable for the growth and

22
strong development for aviation industry and fuel prices for also low. Airlines were generated
about 17 billion dollar economic profit in a year (Wasowska, 2021). The average loss due to Covid-
19 on Airlines is about one 10% of revenue generated before Covid-19. Both commercial and
freight operations of Pakistan airline industry has been disrupted due to Covid-19. It has been
concluded by many studies that during 2015 to 2019 aviation fuel supply chain at the airports were
estimated as stable (Atkinson, 2018). Covid-19 has disruption the flight operations which leads to
destruction in aviation fuel supplies. Analysis of studies has indicates that increase in strength of
relationship among performance of air operations and fuel delivery volume in pandemic period as
compared to the duration before pandemic (Benz, 2022). However from this perspective it can be
concluded at a prominent decline in air transportation will leads to decline in airport revenues.
Airport revenue have great contribution in enhancement of resources required for airport like fuel
(Leończuk, 2021). It is essential to mention that certain aspects which has contribution in aviation
operation and supply chain. These aspects includes airlines, fuel operators, fuel suppliers, and
ground handlers with their different perspectives. There is a strong link among aviation operations
with fuel consumption by Airlines which have greater contribution to manage the complex
operations of supply chain and management conflict of interest by entities as mentioned above.
Their conflict of interest arises as the increase in fuel price cause increasing cost for aviation fuel
but it can be advantage for the ground handlers and suppliers who supplier fuel at airports
(MariusGilbert, 2020). Studies has also conclude that a strong dependence among the extent of
Aviation fuel delivered at airport and number of air operations performed and also other factors
which leads to variation in cost at same time (MariaIacus, 2020). There are number of building
blocks which provides the analysis that suppliers of Aviation fuel to the airport has an impact of
variation in aviation environment which has been disrupted due to pandemic Covid-19 crisis. 2
minimize the impact of Covid-19 on aviation fuel supply chain, management has effectively
manage the evolution fuel supply chain. Certain researches has support this study which provide
se information that during this pandemic it has been noticed that requirement for fuel consumption
is greatly depend on the ratio of air operations (Romagosa, 2020). This observation was focused
during the crisis of Covid-19. Later, fuel supply management play its greater role to effectively
manage the supply of fuel at airports then before pandemic Covid-19. As this situation of Covid-
19 has been recovered and air operations tends to stable, it is also expected that the demand of Air
Traffic will be continue to grow as it was before pandemic Covid-19. This intern will impact the

23
fuel requirement and fuel consumption at airport for aircraft operations (StefanGössling, 2020).
Many authors has also state that because of this that because of this situation of Covid-19 and the
impact of this situation on fuel market of Aviation then there will be a requirement to conduct a
research in order to rise the utilization of fuels and also the ratio of carbon dioxide emission during
the airline operations. In a short term, it has been unfolded that fuel consumption is also related to
fuel emission. A decrease in fuel emission from aircraft has been noticed during covered 19.
Decrease in fuel emission indicates that fuel consumption was lower during the Covid-19 as the
flights for restricted to operate cross borders (S.Brown, 2020). After Covid-19 flights are continue
to operate which leads to increase in fuel demand at airports. Currently, fuel price is gradually
increases as the demand for fuel consumption is also increases. To accommodate with the rise of
fuel prices, Pakistan airline industry must focus to adopt fuel efficient aircrafts. Latest fuel efficient
aircraft will consume less fuel and less carbon dioxide emission (MuhammetDeveci, 2022). Covid-
19 has been successfully controlled by the end of 2020 and activities of commercial air operation
has been resumed on its routes after the recovery of Covid-19. In domestic operations, the major
recovery of flight efficiency among major cities seems to be stable and growth by the end of 2021
(Manag, 2020). Despite the major recovery it has believe that flight operation has been resume
with some extent of confidence regarding the safety of air traveling. Consequently, highest
recovery ratio has been estimated in second half of 2020. The flight operation was estimated after
a month of recovery from Covid-19 and the ratio of estimated operations were quite high. This
high ratio provides a hope that airline industry will be recovered soon (Abate, 2020). The recovery
duration of aviation industry were different in countries and also vary from city to city. Certain
other aspects has also impact on the recovery time. These aspects include medical circumstances,
awareness among people, and measures taken by government. Most of the researches has make a
comparison of data which is based on pre-pandemic situation and post pandemic period which can
be used to reconsider the balance among cargo flight and passenger flights and also ratio of airline
operations (Dray, 2021).

24
VI. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY

3.1.Introduction to research design and methodology

The research design states the inclusive strategy which can be chosen to integrate certain aspects
of study in a logical and comprehensive way and also to ensure that the research problem will be
address effectively and it establish the design for collection, data analysis, and measurement.
Remember that research problem also contributes to decide the research design should be use.
Major role of research design is to clarify that the obtained evidence is enable to address research
problem effectively as unambiguous as possible (Sakyi, 2020). Gaining information regarding
research problem usually involves to specify the kind of evidence required for theory testation, to
assess a program, and to precisely assess and define the meaning relevant to observed phenomena.
Research design provides the market research method framework and techniques which can be
chosen by researcher (Mohajan, 2017). Design can be select by researcher that let them to apply
the methods which are appropriate for study and successfully manage their studies in future.
Research design defines the essentials of data analysis and data collection (Patel, 2019).

Research methodology provides information regarding the research i.e. how a specific research is
being conducts. The part of research methodology in the research paper facilitates the reader to
convince that the research is useful and capable to contribute in the field of study. Methodology
provides all basic information regarding data collection and analysis along with how the data has
been collected (Leary, 2019). Research methodology must defines the used research design by
explaining the methods and technique, which type of research, selected research approach, selected
research strategy, selected and justification about sampling size, method of data collection, and
tools which has been used for data analysis to test the hypothesis (GLASS, 1976). This information
explains the ways a researcher has been used to design the research which make sure that research
has been conducted with valid and reliable data collection, accurate results and make sure that the
research result should be answerable to research questions and achieve the research objectives. A
good methodology explains the fundamental of research which tells the reader how the research
has been conducted (Carlborg, 2014). The complexity and length of the research designed depends
on the research area and problem statement but and effective Research Design provides clear
information on identified research problem and justification of its selection, helps to review the
already published literatures which are related to our problem and research area, explicitly and

25
clearly specified the hypothesis based on identified problem area, provide the effective explanation
of the data which are required for appropriate testation of hypothesis and also elaborates that how
the data required for the study will be gather, elaborate analysis methods which will be implement
to the gathered data to determine whether hypothesis are true or not (Akhtar, 2016). It is not
possible to decide the research design without and appropriate and specified problems statement
or research purpose. Research design also involves number of tools and sampling methods which
can be used for data collection for research. Research design provides the proper guidance for
analysis of data and research design have numerous kinds of research methodology (Palmatier,
2018). It is very important to narrow down the research area and in this regard Research Design
support to narrow down a broader research area into probable objectives of research (Saunders,
2018). Research design depends on the type of study as different research designs needed certain
settings to conduct a study. Journal timeline is also outline by research designs which will help to
conduct a study by using appropriate research method first of implementation of an appropriate
research design leads to successful conduction of study. Research studies having minimum number
of errors and which are successful in providing the appropriate information is considered as the
valid and reliable research study (Osuagwu, 2020).

3.2.Research Approach

Based on the numerical data collected for hypothesis testing, this research is quantitative
research type (Apuke, 2017). Quantitative research is the procedure of gathering and analyzing
numerical data. In this type of research, hypothesis is build and then testing through the intended
responses in the form of numerical data and then collected data is being test. Numerical form of
data used to outline the manipulations from the outcomes and observation which is derived from
the results is known as quantitative research (DANIEL, 2016). In order to collect the quantitative
data, a research questionnaire was adopted from an article, molded those questions according to
the research objectives, and then filled by the responders. Quantitative research is finest for
categorizing, identifying pattern, measuring, and generalizations. In this research the data has been
collected as primary source of data. Quantitative research is define as the process of numerical
data collection and analysis. It is usually implement to find average is, patterns cause and effect
relationships among variables and predictions (Bhawna, 2016). Quantitative research also support
the results to generalize it on considered population. Industry guard the reason to choose

26
quantitative research is because in this research because an effect relationship among covid-19 and
aviation fuel supply chain has been focused. The questionnaire used in this research for data
collection consist of close ended questions and in quantitative research design questions are
preferred. Data collection has been conducted by using a likert scale to quantify the data and
analyze it by using statistical tools (Johnson, 2004). Quantitative research have large number of
sample sizes, as in the study. This study consist of 100 respondents which made the criteria of
quantitative research. The data gather from respondents is in numerical form and analyze in
quantifiable method. Close ended questions help to analyze data in quantitative way and provide
numerical base results to prove or disprove the hypothesis and this is one of the reason to choose
quantitative research method (Hyman, 2016). In this research quantitative research approach is use
two testify theory regarding the impact of covid-19 on aviation fuels supply chain on the basis of
statistical and numerical evidence (Irfan, 2019). Quantitative research is prefer over the qualitative
research because it clarifies the issues in more appropriate method. Data gathered for this research
study is highly structured and reliable as evidence provide through Mahalanobis Distance and
Reliability statistics. The research approach for this paper is deductive research (Daellenbach,
2018). Deductive research is based on testing an existing theory and the same pattern has been
followed. Detective approach is usually used for scientific research (Beck, 2010). In detective
research, it has been a nice that what existing studies have proved and analyze the existing theories
of phenomena, and station of hypothesis which emergence from existing theories (Bahrudin,
2020). Mostly quantitative research needs to detective reasoning. In this paper and existing theory
of “Impact of Covid-19 on the Aviation Fuel Supply Chain in terms of changes in Air Traffic
Services: A Study of Pakistan Airline Industry” has been taken, hypothesis has made based on this
theory and then the developed hypothesis tested through the collecting and testing numerical data.
The research theory has been taken in this research is already exist is other countries but now it
has been implemented in the perspective of Pakistan (Casula, 2021). The strategy is to find out the
results of questions of what, why, and how to achieve the research objectives in order to define
and support the theory is considered as explanatory research. In this research paper, quantitative
method, detective reasoning, and explanatory Research strategies has been implemented which is
based on using primary data and analyze it by using statistical tools to prove or disapprove
hypothesis (Yilmaz, 2013).

3.3.Data Collection

27
For this research, data has been collected through online medium by developing survey
questionnaire. A survey questionnaire is made on the website called Google Form and then link is
generated. The generated link is spread to the intended respondents by following non-probability
convenience sampling (Kabir, 2016). The respondents filled questionnaire through online in order
to maintain the safety in this based on this research paper in order to get proved constructs of each
variable. Questions is developed for which contains questions regarding research area i.e. Pakistan
airline industry (Morgan, 2001). The questions are made in this way which will cover the entire
research and provides required and primary data to generate results. In addition, generalization of
results is one of the major aspect of authentic research. The questionnaire has been developed in a
way as it is capable to gather data which will be valid and generalizable (Shanks, 2018). The
advantage of data collection through Google form is to get the numerical data, auto-generated
graphs which show the answers and to get Google sheet which contains the responses of each.
Based on the type of research and design of questionnaire, sampling technique used for this
research is non-probability convenience sampling and snowball sampling (Naderifar, 2017).
Convenience sampling includes the non-probability sampling in which samples are selected from
the population because they are available for the researcher and also possess the capability to
involve in the research. Snowball sampling method is non-probability sampling method which is
used when current research respondents support to recruit future subjects for data collection and
study population (Noy, 2008). Snowball sampling method has also been implement because it is
requested to each respondent that they can refer or circulate the questionnaire to other relevant
people (Irina-Maria Dragan, 2013). The reason to choose snowball sampling method is because
the data has been gather from Pakistan which requires to ask reference for more respondents as it
was not possible without their support. In this regards, both non-probability snowball sampling
and convenience sampling has been used in this research report. In these sampling methods,
research questionnaire has been send to all those individual who are accessible to fill the
questionnaire and this questionnaire has been send through online medium (Kirchherr, 2017).
Every expected respondent is free to fill the questionnaire according to desire. In this sampling
technique, research questionnaire has been send and filled by customers of airline through online.
This method helps to collect data from the respondents based on their desire and filled via online
which maintains the safety of an individual during this pandemic. The questionnaire has been
spread through e-mail in Google form. To define the accurate sample size for the research, rule of

28
thumb has been used which provides the best possible sample size (Raju, 2016). According to rule
of thumb, each construct of each variable requires 5 respondents which indicate the 5:1 ratio of
questionnaire (iro, 2018). Several studies has define the 10:1 and 20:1 for the survey collection but
5:1 found to be most reliable and convenient (Mondal, 2019). The reason for selecting the 5:1 is
the current situation because most of the respondents are not available due to current Covid-19
situation. The questionnaire contains 10 constructs or questions and according to Field, 2005:639:
Hair et al., 21010:102, Ho, 2006:206 specifies that 50 respondents are require but responses are
increased up to 100 respondents in order to get more reliable data.

3.4.Data Analysis

Sample of 100 respondents were developed by following the rule of thumb. On the collected
sample, Mahalanobis Distance, correlation, and Cronbach’s alpha by extracting the p-value which
would support the research results. By analysis the value get from the test would provide the
research results. In this Research report Mahalanobis distance has also been measured.
Mahalanobis distance is considered as an effective and efficient multivariate distance which
estimates the distance among two points. It actually based covariance between variables in the
aspects of vectors which are being compared. Mahalanobis distance measure the outlier in factor
analysis. It measures the consistency among the responses of questionnaire. Mahalanobis distance
has to analyze and answer one of the research limitation that how concentrate were response while
responding to the survey questionnaire. As this is quantitative study and to get primary data
structure close and it survey questionnaire has been distributed among study population. As being
researcher, it is not possible to be present near each of the respondent while they are responding
to the questionnaire due to limited time. In order to estimates that how accurately the questionnaire
has been filled by the respondent Mahalanobis distance has been applied. There is a specific range
has been specified by researcher for Mahalanobis distance which is .005. If a p-value in
Mahalanobis distance occurs as less than 0.005 then it will be considered as an outlier. More
significant contribution of Mahalanobis distance in Research report is it's aspects of great
executions in multivariate detection identification of imbalance data sets and also one class
classification. Mahalanobis distance outlier is basically a distance in multivariate space between
two points. It is better for a research report to perform Mahalanobis distance outlier at initial stage
because the outlier will be identified at early stage of research so that other statistical test can be

29
applied with most accurate extracted data. Cronbach’s alpha test is used to measure the internal
consistency and reliability of each variable and also measures that at what extent set of item as a
group is internally consistent (Bonett, 2014). It measures the scale reliability. In addition, when
the average inter-item correlation increases, the Cronbach’s alpha also increases. There are certain
ranges has been given by the experts (William P Fisher, 2012). According to the rule of thumb, if
the value of alpha is greater than equal to 0.9 then the value is considered to be excellent, if the
value of alpha is ranges between 0.8 to 0.9 then it is good and if the value is lies among 0.7 to 0.8
then it is acceptable and if the value is less than 0.5 then the Cronbach’s value is not acceptable
carry out by our data (Crawford, 2012). Correlation coefficient is implement to measures extend
of strong relationship among two or more variables. Correlation coefficient clearly identifies the
relationship among variables, if exists, without any mistake (Kanyongo, 2006). In addition,
correlation test is the most significant test to analyze whether hypothesis is supported or not
supported. In this research report, the correlation among covid-19 and aviation fuel supply chain
is under focus. All of these tests is performed on IBM SPSS software and each of the test has great
significance (Cho, 2015). Each test indicates a different and significant reserve without which
there can be a gap in the report. The Significance, role and indications of each test has been
elaborate thoroughly and results will be based on the performance of these test. Gathered data in
this report is analyzed on the base of Mahalanobis Distance, reliability statistics, and correlation
coefficient. There are numerous kinds of correlation coefficient but the most utilizable is
Pearson’s. Pearson’s correlation is also called Pearson’s R and it is execute in the research to find
liner regression (Nawi, 2020). The correlation coefficient refers directly to the Pearson’s R. when
the value of correlation coefficient is 1 then it means the relationship among variables is positive.
In contrast, if the value is -1 then it means there is negative relationship among variables. When
the value is found zero then it means no relation exist among variables i.e. neither positive nor
negative (Jain, 2016).

3.5.Discussion of problems

While conducting this research two major problems for identified full stop the first one is defining
variables. Defining variables is initial step of this research which is very critical and essential to
conduct any research. As define variable directly entire research and any error while defining
variables will leads to errors in entire search (Pardede, 2018). The variable needs to be clear at

30
initial stage to avoid any confusion in further Research report. This research contain two variables
one Independent and one dependent variable. Initial stage of research it was being quite difficult
to identify the Independent and dependent variable and developed our processes based on these
variables (Muganda, 2019). Variables are the extract of defined variables of research. Any error in
defining variables will leads to misconducting of hypothesis. Another major problem is faced if
defining population and data collection. Is this research is based on Pakistan airline industry which
indicate state the response should be associated with Pakistan airline industry. On the other hand
as mentioned above the research is based on the impact of COVID-19 on aviation fuel supply chain
(Lund, 2020). This area of research indicates that the participant should be associated with aviation
fuel supply chain in Pakistan airline industry. It was being really difficult to find the accurate
studies population and then extract the target population from study population (Akhidime, 2017).
To approach respondents is also one of the major issue has been faced while conducting this
research. As to have contact of all participants tend to become a part of research is quite difficult.
In this regard snowball sampling has been implemented because once I get a respondent who is
responsible or appointed for regular aviation fuel supplies chain then I can request them to circulate
the questionnaire provide contact of people who can become the part of this research study (Inaam,
2018).

3.6.Limitations of methodological approach

 None of the research study can be conducted without any limitation. This is quantitative
research based on primary data collection and it's analysis on numerical based. Quantitative
research approach can one of the limitation of this research study in concern of statistical
relationship which makes researcher to overlook some broader relationships and themes. This
research study is highly focused towards numbers which emergence are risk to overlook or
missing of any significant information which can be beneficial to support the results of this
study. When quantitative research approach is adopted in a research, it is very important to
draw the research questions and research objectives carefully and developed a research model
for data collection and data analysis.

 In addition, the outcomes of quantitative research is also limited because it's result and
conclusion revolves around the close ended questions considered in the survey questionnaire.
The analysis of quantitative research is based on the choices that has been given for each

31
 question to the respondent. The respondent cannot convey it's on perspective or idea which
might provide additional knowledge.

 Another limitation is the selection of non-probability sampling because it makes unclear to

measure if they selected study population is well representative or not. As being researcher it
is very difficult to calculate the margin of error and intervals due to selection of non-probability
sampling.

 As non-probability convenience sampling and snowball sampling has been selected for this
research study with logical reasoning. Snowfall sampling creates hurdle for data collection
because researcher help Limited control over sampling method. The reason for this is because
the subjects which researcher can obtain data rely on preceding subjects. This indicates that
the representatives of sample is not definite.

 One of the most significant limitation of this research report is lack of existing data regarding
this research area. As mentioned in this Research report that this study is firstly initiated in the
perspective of Pakistan airline industry. There is no existing study found which directly relate
with impact of covid-19 on aviation of fuel supplies in Air Traffic services in the perspective
of Pakistan airline industry. This limits the introduction and information given in the literature
review.

3.7.Ethical Consideration

The participation of respondents in this research will not cause any harm and disadvantage.
Participating in this study will not harm physically or psychologically or in any other concern. If
the respondent notice any inaccurate aspect or have any complaint, then he/she can contact on
personal contact information given at questionnaire at any time (Cacciattolo, 2015). Detail of
supervisor has also mentioned the surety has been given to research participants that all
information which will be collect from them during this research will kept confidential
(FLEMING, 2015). Participants will not be able to be identifiable in any publication. Any
information collected from them will be via online medium and password of accounts will be kept
secure. It might be possible that data which have been collected from them needs to be shared to
permit them to reuse for further studies but it will be shared anonymously (GAJJAR, 2013). This
shared data will not permit any institution or researcher to identify participants. Results of this

32
research project might go for publication but data collected from them will be kept confidential.
Furthermore, participants and their institution will not be identifiable. In addition, the data of
Pakistan airline industry will be kept with more security levels because participants are airline
managers which are responsible for calculating fuel efficiencies (Akaranga, 2016).

VII. FINDINGS, DISCUSSIONS, AND RESULTS ANALYSIS

4.1.Introduction to findings and results analysis
Findings and results analysis is one of the most important part of Research report because it
elaborates whether research questions has been answered. The findings office Research report
depends on the research strategy has been adopted and data collected based on research approach.
The data has been gather by a survey questionnaire and result obtained by numerical analysis. The
results has been obtained by using statistical tools. IBM SPSS software has been used to test the
collected data and obtain values of each test. The test applies for finding and results analysis are
Mahalanobis distance reliability status is, correlation Coefficient, and regression analysis. Each of
the test has its own contribute and provides values for interpretation. The interpretation of each
test is based on the values represents by the table. There are specified ranges has been set through
which data can be analyze. Each test has its own contribution to support the results and answer
research questions. IBM SPSS provides logical reasoning based on each of its tests and values.
Result analysis of this research will fill a research gap as this research study has not been conducted
previously in the perspective of Pakistan airline industry.

33
4.2.Mahalanobis Distance

MAH_1 ρ-value The Mahalanobis distance is a distance

1.21382 0.75
measuring tool which measures distance
0.85678 0.84
0.85678 0.84 among two points in the multivariate
0.27056 0.97 space. Most important role of
1.21382 0.75
Mahalanobis distance is its use to find
0.48478 0.92
0.85678 0.84 outliers of variables includes in a research
0.01315 1 report by statistical analyses. It is
0.01315 1
tremendously useful, excellent to execute
0.85678 0.84
0.01315 1 for anomaly detection, classified the
0.01315 1 imbalance data, and single class
0.85678 0.84 classification.
1.21382 0.75
0.08456 0.99 In the given figure 1.1, values of
1.21382 0.75
Mahalanobis distance has been calculated
3.01566 0.39
1.77181 0.62 via SPSS. This tables shows two columns
0.27056 0.97 one is MAH_1 and other presents
0.08456 0.99
probability value or ρ-value.
1.21382 0.75
0.48478 0.92 MAH_1 column possess actual
0.85678 0.84
3.65834 0.3 Mahalanobis distance values based on
0.85678 0.84 primary data from 100 respondents
0.01315 1 collected for this report. After calculating
1.77181 0.62
0.85678 0.84 Mahalanobis distance value, ρ-value has
Table 4.1. Mahalanobis Distance
0.01315 1 been calculated based on MAH_1 values.
0.27056 0.97 According to research standards, ρ-value
0.08456 0.99 a. RELIABILITY STATISTICS
0.85678 0.84 less than 0.001 is consider as an outlier.
0.85678 0.84
0.01315 1
0.27056 0.97

34
3.01566 0.39
0.27056 0.97
0.48478 0.92 Here, it should be notice that Mahalanobis
2.27167 0.52 distance measures the distance
0.85678 0.84
comparative to centroid, which is a base or
0.27056 0.97
0.08456 0.99 the central point of data and this can be
0.27056 0.97 consider as collective mean for
0.08456 0.99
multivariate data. For data given in figure
0.85678 0.84
0.08456 0.99 1.1, the centroid point is the in which
3.65834 0.3 multivariate space i.e. mean from both
0.86373 0.74
independent and dependent variable
0.01315 1
0.08456 0.99 intersects. Larger values of Mahalanobis
0.08456 0.99 distance leads to move away from centroid
0.48478 0.92
where data point met. Calculated
5.37382 0.15
1.77181 0.62 Mahalanobis distance for this report
0.08456 0.99 possess more values less than 1 but above
0.01315 1
0.001.
0.27056 0.97
3.65834 0.3
0.08456 0.99
1.21382 0.75
2.27167 0.52
0.08456 0.99
3.65834 0.3
3.65834 0.3
0.48478 0.92
1.21382 0.75
0.01315 1
1.77181 0.62
3.01566 0.39
0.48478 0.92
0.08456 0.99
0.85678 0.84
0.27056 0.97
0.08456 0.99
0.27056 0.97
1.77181 0.62

35
 0.48478 0.92 In calculated ρ-value, it can be seen that
0.27056 0.97
all values are greater than 0.001. This
1.21382 0.75
0.01315 1 indicates that there is no outlier in data
0.85678 0.84 collected and the questionnaire has been
0.48478 0.92
attempted attentively by respondent.
1.21382 0.75
0.08456 0.99
0.48478 0.92
0.85678 0.84
1.21382 0.75
1.21382 0.75
1.21382 0.75
2.27167 0.52
0.01315 1
0.85678 0.84
0.85678 0.84
4.58832 0.2
0.27056 0.97
1.77181 0.62
4.58832 0.2
0.48478 0.92
0.01315 1
0.08456 0.99

Figure 1.1. Mahalanobis Distance

4.3.Reliability Statistics
Cronbach’s alpha measures the internal consistency or reliability of likert scale. The term
reliability also use for consistency. Main reason to apply Cronbach’s alpha or reliability tests for
this research report is to ensure that likert scale for multiple questions possess in questionnaire are
reliable and these questions are relevant and accurate to measure variables under study i.e. impact
of Covid-19, aviation fuel supply chain, and air traffic services. Another reason to apply reliability
tests is to know how set of test items are closely related as a group. Set of items means questions
for each variable. Like in this study report, each variable has 5 items which are collectively 10
items for both variables. To check the internal consistency for each set of items, Cronbach’s alpha
value has been obtain through IBM SPSS statistics. In this research report, rule of thumb has been
used to avoid issues usually appears with Cronbach’s Alpha. An alpha with higher level is might

36
consider as items selected for test are highly correlated. Though, α is also complex and sensitive
for number of items selected for this research and involves in test. As in this study, number of
items is limited i.e. 5 for each variable but there might be higher alpha value can be obtain with
large number of items. Let’s discuss each of the value given below:

Reliability for Impact of Covid-19 (IOC)

Reliability Statistics

Cronbach's N of
Alpha Items
.774 5

Figure 1.2. Reliability Statistics Impact of Covid-19 (IOC)

Figure 1.2 presents the Cronbach’s alpha value which is .774. It has been thoroughly explain in 3rd
chapter that Cronbach’s value between 0.8 > α ≥ 0.7 is “acceptable.” This indicates that reliability
of items selected for this report is acceptable and further testation can be proceed with this data
and number of constructs. Number of items selected to measure a variable i.e. impact of covid-19
is acceptable. Reliability for this variable can be increase if more items added but these items
should be relevant to existing items otherwise alpha value will not increase even after additional
items.

Reliability for Aviation Fuel Supply Chain (AFSC)

Reliability Statistics

Cronbach's N of
Alpha Items
.830 5

Figure 1.3. Reliability Statistics Aviation Fuel Supply Chain (AFSC)

Figure 1.3 presents the Cronbach’s alpha value which is .830. Value ranges along with their rules
has been elaborates in above methodology section which claims that according to rule of thumb,
value between 0.9 > α ≥ 0.8 is “good.” This indicates that items selected to measure aviation fuel
supply chain is good and further testation can be perform on selected number of items. Here, higher
value of Cronbach’s alpha also indicates that questions selected for this variables are asking same
thing and remains on track. This means that our questionnaire involves redundant questions. If in

37
case the value obtained from SPSS based on selected number of items is less than alpha which is
0.5 than the data would not be acceptable and there is requirement to add additional and relevant
items for that particular variable which possess Cronbach’s value less than alpha value. Lower
value of alpha also indicates that there are not enough questions involves to test a hypothesis.
Reliabilities statistics is a statistical tool which is well developed for testing performance of
variables and their construct. This support a study to measure its properties and construct that
contain scales. The values obtained from IBM SPSS for reliability analysis indicates that this data
is reliable because it meets the criteria and ranges defined by research rules. Data reliability defines
that data composed for research is accurate and complete and it is a significant base to build data
trust in the organization. When data reliability is ensured in a research then it helps to meet the
research objectives with initiative of Data integrity and regulatory compliance. Reliable measure
is one of the statistical tool which comprises zero or negligible random measurement error which
means that something that can cause arbitrary distortion in the measurement procedure which
results in unreliable measurements. Though, it is not required to entirely free from systematic
errors which might cause chronic and consistent distortion while measuring the concept of research
to attain their reliability, it mainly requires only to be consistent. In order to achieve authentic
results it is very important to perform reliability analysis. Without considering reliability, it could
create difficulties for research to trust the gathered data according to measure the appropriate
performance of participants which represents the data instead of reason of unorganized artefacts
while performing testing which includes methodological, environmental, or psychological
processes. Reliability analysis usually impact by test duration, difficulty to understand constructs
objectives of research variation in situation and intervals of test-retest.

4.4.Correlation Coefficient

Correlation Coefficient is a statistical tool which is used to describe weather to variables are in
relationship. It also elaborate that in which direction variables are moving under the research area.
If variables moves in identical direction then these conclude that a positive relationship occurs
between variables but movement of variables in opposite direction indicates that there is a negative
correlation between variables. Correlation shows the strength of a relationship between two
variables and is expressed numerically by the correlation coefficient. As mention in methodology
section that when correlation Coefficient value is obtained as exact one then this support the

38
perfect positive relationship between variables. Correlation is often skewed when an outlier is
present but the data collected for this research consider no outlier. Mahalanobis distance measured
for this research report indicates that data collected for research contains no outlier. Linking with
Mahalanobis distance and zero outlier, correlation will not skewed. The values for correlation
ranges between +1 and -1. When correlation Coefficient value is obtained as plus one this
indicates that a linear perfect positive correlation occurs between variables this indicates that
when variable X increases that is independent variable then variable Y with also increases which
is the dependent variable. And alternatively decrease with X variable will leads to decrease in Y
variable. Here, our variable x is impact of Covid-19 and variable y is aviation fuel supply chain
and air traffic services. A strong significant relationship between independent and depend variable
has been prove by performing correlation test on IBM SPSS. Ranges for relationship among
variables has clearly mentioned in methodology section. Value obtained for relationship between
independent and dependent variables is .194 which presents strong positive relationship. This
indicates that our independent variable has strong positive relationship with dependent variable
and hypothesis is supported.

Correlations
Impact_of_Co Aviation_Fuel
vid19 _Supply_Chai
n
Impact_of_Covid19 Pearson Correlation 1
Sig. (2-tailed)
N 100
Aviation_Fuel_Supply_Ch Pearson Correlation .194 1
ain Sig. (2-tailed) .055
N 100 100

Figure 1.4. Correlation Coefficient

Relation between Independent and dependent variable of the study that is Impact of covid-19 and
aviation fuel supplies when is found as strong positive relation but it is not perfect positive relation
because the value is less than 1. The value obtained for relationship is 0.194 which indicates a
linear positive relationship. It has been observed that if impact of Covid-19 increases then the
issues in user fuel supply chain will also increases. Conversely, if the impact of covid-19 will be
controlled then aviation fuel supplies in will also be recovered. Impact of covid-19 and aviation

39
fuel supplies in moves in same direction as a relationship between them is found as positive. This
relationship also supports the objectives by proving that covid-19 has an impact on aviation fuel
supplies and Air Traffic services as the variables moves in same direction. Like other aspects of
statistical analysis, correlation can be misinterpreted. Small sample sizes may yield unreliable
results, even if it appears as though correlation between two variables is strong. Alternatively, a
small sample size may yield uncorrelated findings when the two variables are in fact linked.

4.5.Regression Analysis
Linear regression is the most common form of this technique. Linear regression establishes
the linear relationship between two variables based on a line of best fit. Linear regression is thus
graphically depicted using a straight line with the slope defining how the change in one variable
impacts a change in the other. The y-intercept of a linear regression relationship represents the
value of one variable when the value of the other is zero. Non-linear regression models also exist,
but are far more complex. Regression analysis is a powerful tool for uncovering the associations
between variables observed in data, but cannot easily indicate causation. It is used in several
contexts in business, finance, and economics.

Model Summaryb
Model R R Square Adjusted R Std. Error of the
Square Estimate

1 .368a .736 .726 .74465

a. Predictors: (Constant), Impact_of_Covid19

b. Dependent Variable: Aviation_Fuel_Supply_Chain

Figure 1.5. Model Summary-Regression Analysis

The R-Square value obtained based on collected primary data is .736. This indicates that R-square
73.6% variation is observes in target variable i.e. aviation fuel supply chain and air traffic services.
The obtained value of adjusted R-Square in model summary elaborate that this research study
provides 73.6% information for the constructed model. Main purpose of our square value is
elaboration that at what extent regression model provides information based on observed data. In
this research study, 73.6% of variability has been observed in target variable which is explain by
regression model. The value of adjusted are scare which is 72.6% represents that independent

40
variable cause 72.6% variance in dependent variable of this research study. R-square value can be
increases when variables in research increases. In addition, they value of adjusted are scare also
provides are precise view of correlation coefficient value by considering the information that how
independent variables can be added in a particular model by which the variation independent
variable can be measured.

ANOVAa
Model Sum of df Mean F Sig.
Squares Square
1 Regression 1.462 1 1.462 3.783 .001b
Residual 21.853 97 .225
Total 23.315 98
a. Dependent Variable: Aviation_Fuel_Supply_Chain
b. Predictors: (Constant), Impact_of_Covid19

Figure 1.6. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)-Regression Analysis

Base on this research report, this ANOVA table is One-Way ANOVA because only one
independent and one dependent variable is under study. Another method to observe the change in
the variables which is ANOVA (analysis of variance), it compares the two or multiple independent
variables to identify the statistical evidence which is associated with targeted population and there
means are significantly different. One method in ANOVA is parametric test which is also refer as
One-Factor ANOVA. In this test P-value is less than 0.05 which shows signification and less than
0.01 represents high significations in results. So the P=0.0000 addresses the high signification. As
in the given table 4.6 the value of P, obtained is less than 0.05 which is significant and in
accordance with set value of P. However, another way to test the variables in ANOV is that there
are two different groups which can be analyze and interpret, instead of showing which group of
variables is distinct from other group. If results shows signification f-statistics, then you need to
run a test (Similar to Least Signification Different Test), that actually represents which group are
different in means. The signification value for ANOVA taken as 0.45 that is minimum or less than
0.5 and shows the signification in results. Degree of freedom (DF), highlights the numerous of
independent of values which change in an analysis without any limitations in constraints. Research
shows the Degree of Freedom to 1 which again represents the uniformity in variables in the given
research/ target population.

41
 Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized t Sig.
Coefficients

B Std. Error Beta

1 (Constant) 1.531 .252 6.081 .000

Impact_of_Covid19 .619 .097 .624 6.245 .045

a. Dependent Variable: Aviation_Fuel_Supply_Chain

Figure 1.7. Coefficient-Regression Analysis

Beta value obtained from regression analysis is .619 for standardize coefficient and .624 for
unstandardized coefficient. Usually beta value of unstandardized coefficient is taken by
researchers. Beta value of .619  61.9% is calculated. This interpret that impact of independent
variable i.e. impact of Covid-19 is 61.9% on aviation fuel supply chain and air traffic services. The
beta value in regression analysis signifies the value which causes the change in X variable should
be multiplied to provide the consistent average off change in Y variable. Here, X variable is Impact
of covid-19 and Y variable is aviation fuel supplies and Air Traffic services. It elaborates the extent
at which X variable causes variation in Y variable. The beta coefficient is the degree of change in
the outcome variable for every 1-unit of change in the predictor variable. Result of coefficient table
indicates that covid-19 is 61.9% responsible for change in aviation fuel supply chain and air traffic
services. 39.1% includes other factors which causes decline in aviation fuel supply chain and air
traffic services. R-square 73.6% variation is observes in target variable i.e. aviation fuel supply
chain and air traffic services. The most significant contribution of are scared value in research is
to elaborates that how will regression model represents the observed data. In statistical analysis,
regression is used to identify the associations between variables occurring in some data. It can
show both the magnitude of such an association and also determine its statistical significance.
Results of overall regression analysis indicates the relationship between independent and
dependent variable and also support hypothesis. These testation provides an evidence that
hypothesis is supported and relationship between variables is acceptable. Such testation has great
role for decision making by analyzing values presented as a result of these tests

42
4.6.Conclusion of findings, Discussions, and results analysis

After applying Mahalanobis distance via SPSS, ρ-value < 0.001 is excluded from the data and only
values greater than ρ-value are considered for further testation. For example, if data collected from
50 respondents and while performing Mahalanobis distance three ρ-values are found as less than
0.001 then these three values will consider as outlier and data of 47 respondents will be taken for
further testation. In this regard, data collected from 100 respondents will be consider for further
testation without any exemption because all values are above 0.001 and no outlier has been found.
Cronbach’s alpha in this research report clearly elaborates that alpha value is not suitable to
measure the validity of data, or the range of scale at which the value is recorded as “true” or the
score of this research concept trying to be measured deprive of gather unintended aspects. For
example, in algebra class word problem is introduce to students of math class to check their
capability. For better understanding of word problem, students not only require mathematics skills
but also verbal capability which, when factored in the test score might not elaborate the true
capability for math. This example is provided to support above statement regarding validity and
reliability. Correlation shows how one variable is connected to another and may not clearly
identify how a single instance or outcome can impact the correlation coefficient. Correlation may
also be misinterpreted if the relationship between two variables is nonlinear. It is much easier to
identify two variables with a positive or negative correlation. However, two variables may still
be correlated with a more complex relationship. The closer the value of ρ is to +1, the stronger
the linear relationship. Refer to table 4.2 and 4.3, N indicates number of respondents involves for
data collection. The results of model summary will support Pakistan airline industry to analyze the
extent at which covid-19 as impacted the aviation future plan. The values of R square and
registered are scare represents the extent at which variance of dependent variable has been
elaborates by the Independence variable in regression model. The R-square value of table 4.5
presents that 73.6% variance of independent variable elaborates the variance independent variable.
Result of coefficient table indicates that covid-19 is 61.9% responsible for change in aviation fuel
supply chain and air traffic services. 39.1% includes other factors which causes decline in aviation
fuel supply chain and air traffic services.

43
VIII. CONCLUSION, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND LIMITATIONS
5.1.Conclusion
When crisis due to Covid-19 hits the air transportation, then entire aviation industry was affected.
Because of pandemic Covid-19 crisis, a shift in passenger’s behavior has been observed along with
travel limitations and resultant economic crisis causes an intense downfall in demand for air travel
services. The results of analyses regarding aviation fuel supply chain and air traffic services
demand to airport conclude that as a result of pandemic Covid-19 crisis, there is a prominent
downfall has been estimated. The demand for fuel supply is severely depends on ratio of air traffic
operations and while pandemic the method to manage fuel supply among Pakistan airlines was
effective as compare to pre-pandemic. The data gather to conduct this study is reliable and
authentic to generalize the results. The data has been gathered from Pakistan Airline Industry
managers who handle air traffic services and fuel supply chain. Most importantly, the results of
this study is supported by the results of correlation coefficient. The correlation Coefficient test
indicates they strong positive relationship between variables. This relationship between variables
indicates that Covid-19 has an impact on aviation few supply chain and also on a traffic services.
The finding of these analysis is answerable of all three research questions. Covid-19 impacts the
Air traffic services in terms of passenger flow. Due to Covid-19 and travel restrictions among
borders of all countries reduces the demand for Air travel services. This also reduces the flow of
passengers by air. Impact of Covid-19 on aviation fuel supplies in has also been measured. The
results indicates that Covid-19 has impacted the aviation fuel supply chain in terms of reduce in
passenger demand for Air traveling. Impact of Covid-19 is less on freight operations because cargo
flights were continue to operate. Pakistan airline industry has been immensely impacted by the
Covid-19. When flights were on ground, the need for fuel supply chain was reduces and this
impacts the regular fuel supply chain among Pakistan airline industry. The linear regression model
indicates the extent at which Covid-19 has impacted the aviation fuel supply chain. The beta value
in regression analysis is calculated out as 61.9%. This value represents that the variation in aviation
fuel supplies and air traffic services is 61.9% due to Covid-19. According to this value the change
in aviation fuel supplies in Pakistan airline industry and its air traffic services is 61.9% due to
Covid-19 and 38.1% includes other factors. Other factors could be economic condition, plan to
minimize fuel emission from air travel, and strategy to develop sustainable aviation fuel to protect
the environment. Hence, there is a strong positive relationship has been identified between

44
Independent variable of the study. The independent variable is Covid-19 and dependent variables
are aviation of use supply chain and air traffic services. The strong positive relationship among
variable indicates that Covid-19 has significant impact on aviation fuel supplies in Pakistan airline
industry. The independent variable which is Covid-19 has impact the dependent variable which is
aviation fuel supply chain of Pakistan airline industry is about 61.9%. The analysis of results is
answerable of each research question with significant and authentic evidences. Graph 5.1 presents
the response of managers of Pakistan airline industry who agrees upon the research statement. This
graph clearly shows that respondents of this research claims that Covid-19 has an impact on
aviation fuel supply chain.

COVID-19 has an impact on aviation fuel supply chain.

6%
1%
9%
33% Strongly agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly disagree
51%

Figure 1.8. COVID-19 has an impact on aviation fuel supply chain

This question is core part of questionnaire which measures the relationship between variables.
Most frequent answer measured stretched the results to prove the research topic.

45
 Regular flight operations leads to regular demand for
aviation fuel supply.

15%
Strongly agree
33%
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly disagree
52%

Figure 1.9. Regular flight operations leads to regular demand for aviation fuel supply

It is obvious that an aircraft can’t take-off without fuel. Fuel is necessary for continuation of flight
operations. If an aircraft remains on ground then it will not use the fuel and the requirement for
fuel consumption will be affected. This questions (graph 5.2.) includes in questionnaire to measure
the relation between flight operations and aviation fuel demand. High ratio of respondents agrees
upon it and none of the respondents disagreed which presents that if the flight operations will be
regular then demand for aviation fuel supply chain will remain stable. As flight operations turn
irregular due to Covid-19 which creates disruption in demand for aviation fuel supply chain.
Hence, more or less aviation fuel supply chain and air traffic services has been impacted by Covd-
19 and when flight operations of Pakistan airline industry disrupted due to restrictions of air travel
across country borders then this causes the reduction in demand for aviation fuel supply chain in
Pakistan airline industry.

5.2.Recommendations

Successful control over Covid-19 by the end of 2020, resumes firstly domestic and then
international flights of Pakistan airline industry. Mostly recovery cases were noticed in May and
then July of 2020. This indicates that when Covid-19 cases would less than this will leads to the
quick recovery of air travel operations. This recovery duration varies from country to country. In
terms of success, Pakistan airline industry is less successful as compare to European or American

46
airline industry. There are certain measures which needs to be taken to overcome the impact of
Covid-19. As Covid-19 has impacted the Global aviation industry and different countries are
taking collective actions to overcome loss it has encountered due to pandemic and a travel
restrictions. Pakistan airline industry should focus on those corrective actions and focus on stable
flight operations. By offering privileges to customers by travelling through Pakistan airline
industry can support the demand for Air operations and enhance the ratio of passenger flow. It is
recommended to researchers that they should focus on current state of Pakistan airline industry
and terms of Aviation use supply chain and compare it with pre-pandemic situation. This will help
to measure the effectiveness of efforts execute by airline industry. Airlines and airports are
significant for economic development of regions countries and cities was stop them direct
contribution of Aviation industry in economy by providing services by airline to transport cargo
and passengers. It has been proved by previous researches that aviation industry has sharp fall as
a result of Covid-19 outbreak. Even though many Airlines has bankrupted as they were not capable
to tackle with crisis of Covid-19. Such situations are unexpected but Airlines should strengthen
their existence so that they can handle such situations and remains in the market. Regular fuel
supply is an essential part of regular flight operations for airline. The aircraft using by Pakistani
Airlines are not fuel efficient and they impacts the environment by carbon dioxide emission. The
studies should be conducted to identify the fuel emission and ratio of carbon dioxide emission by
aircraft after cover 19. Further studies can be conduct to compare and contrast the mental factor
impacts by fuel emission before and after Covid-19.

Future direction

Even before Covid-19, Pakistan airline industry was not as successful as it should progress. It is
strongly recommended that Pakistan airline industry should focus on its progress and regular
operations. On the other hand, it is highly recommended to future researchers that they can conduct
research on certain aspects of Pakistan airline industry which creates hurdles for being successful.
This will help to higher authorities of airline industry to focus on these constraints to overcome
and heading towards success. Even after successful control over Covid-19, Pakistan airline is still
far behind the success. The reasons due to which Pakistan airline industry is not as successful as it
should be needs to explore in future research.

Practical implications

47
The major consequences of inability to operate of an airline and decrease in demand has being
gone through by many airlines and Pakistan airline industry is from one of them. As theoretical
implications of the study is to enhance the sop two regulate the flight operations. In this regard,
the implementation of practices and policies requires by government might take time to execute
and co-ordinate with the situation but if it has been implemented by leaders chips, managers and
expert is good support the Pakistan airline industry by "opening the skies." After this successful
control over Covid-19 Pakistan airline industry required to operate and support carefully in order
to return to their work procedures with proper concentration of what and how aviation role will
reflect in future. In term of practical implication, Pakistan airline industry should consider and
corporate with IATA and ICAO representatives and concern with them to contribute to regulate
the flight operations so that the short fall has been observed due to Covid-19 can be recover. The
analysis part of this study will help to answer that how they disruption in aviation fuse supply
chain due to Covid-19 can be manage by taking certain initiatives. The study will help to
practically analyze the current situation of Aviation fuse supply chain by the airline industry so
that a comparison can be made before and after the fuel supply chain of Pakistan airline industry.
This will help to analyze that whether after successful control over Covid-19 leads to improvement
of Aviation of use supply chain among Pakistan airline industry or still it is in unstable condition.
The implication of results of this study might leads to stable the aviation fuel supply chain and Air
traffic services of Pakistan airline industry because this study clearly elaborates the relationship
between these terminologies. This indicates that aviation fuel supply chain is not independent but
it depends on certain circumstances. By understanding of this concept Pakistan airline industry can
preserve the domain of evolution fuel suppliers so that certain other factors could have minimum
impact on it. Hence study will help to practically improve the flight operation of Pakistan airline
industry and minimizes the impact of Covid-19 on fuel supplies and Air traffic services by taking
most appropriate initiative.

Theoretical implications

This study will have positive implication and main theoretical implication is that this study will
add value in the existing knowledge regarding the impact of Covid-19 on aviation fuel supply
chain and Air traffic services in the perspective of Pakistan airline industry. The study has not been
conducted before in the Pakistan research area. This research topic is most significant for aviation

48
industry but unfortunately this has not been focus before by any researcher. This also elaborate the
significance of this study in the article implication. The study will help higher authorities of
Pakistan airline industry to analyze the impact of Covid-19 on flight operations and aviation fuel
supply chain. By getting knowledge regarding the impact of pandemic will support the airline
industry to analyze the sharp fall it has been gone through. Being the first research on this area of
interest indicates the significance of this study in theoretical implications. In addition, the results
of this study will provide knowledge to managers and authorities of airline industry to focus on
the impact of Covid-19 on aviation fuel supply chain and take regulatory measures to strengthen
the existence of airline Industries so that if anything similar happens in future then airline industry
should be capable to accommodate in such an expected situations. The results of this study clearly
elaborates the impact of Independence variable on dependent variable. The relationship among
variables is found as strong positive with evidence of calculated values. The reason to provide this
statement here is to recall this significance of aviation fuel supply chain in airline industry. Pakistan
airline industry has been impacted more severely in terms of passenger flow as passenger travel
world restricted within or outside the country but cargo operations were continue to flow. This
indicates that even in pandemic Covid-19 Pakistan Airlines were continue to operate cargo
operation and this could be one of the reason which add some extent saves the regulation of flight
operations. The theoretical implication of the study will help higher authorities to understand that
they should focus to improve the freight operations so that in case when passenger flow is restricted
so they can continue to operate cargo flights. In addition, major theoretical implication is in
improvement of SOP's. Pakistani Airlines can improve their SOP's by analyzing the results of this
study and this will also help them to improve their flight operations. By improving their standards
of operations will help to remain stable even during difficult situations. Due to fluctuation in
currency prices, the price for fuel is continue to rise. Major portion of airline expense is of fuel
consumption by aircraft. The result of this study can be used by fuel regulators to make efficient
utilization of fuel and to properly plan the requirement of fuel. Demand for fuel supply is directly
depends on demand of airline operations. Any disruption in air travel demand will definitely
impacts the fuel requirements for flight operation because ratio of passenger flight operations will
be less. The results of this study will help to avoid such circumstances and preplan important
factors like fuel supply, air travel demand, and regulation of Air traffic services.

5.3.Limitations

49
No research study can be completely inclusive or flawless in all possible aspects. Study limitation
helps to understand the shortcomings while conducted this research which direct the future
researchers. The limitation of this study is first of all human error because the data has been
collected from employees of Pakistan airline industry who manages the aviation fuel supplies in,
Air traffic services, and other major flight handling operations. As being a researcher, it was not
possible to present near each of respondent while they were responding. There could be a mistake
or error has been made by the respondent while responding to the research questionnaire. Not
being present while response are responding to questionnaire is one of the major limitation because
that is important might sit in disruptive or busy environment which disturb its concentration and
questionnaire might not fill with full concentration. This limitation is not able to overcome while
conducting this research study because this study is based on Pakistan airline industry but
researcher is present in Scotland. As questionnaire consist of close ended questions with a defined
likert scale. There could be other options which respondents might have in their mind and these
options might add value in this study by providing more accurate information but not present in
define likert scale. By adding open ended questions might help respondents to elaborate the actual
impact of Covid-19 on aviation fuel supplies in which helps to conclude they study with more
valid and reliable results. Another limitation of the study is that this study is based on only impact
of Covid-19 on aviation fuel supplies and air traffic services but there can be other factors which
impacts the aviation fuel supplies Chain and none of these factors has been considered in this
study. These factors are also important to identify and understand because Covid-19 has been
successfully controlled but there might be possibility that other factors are continue to impacts the
aviation fuel supply chain. It has been clearly elaborates in the analysis part that Covid-19 has
impact the aviation fuel supplies in by 61.9% but other 38.1% variation in aviation fuel supply
chain is due to other factors which are still and identified and unknown. It is very important to
identify and understand other factors which are impacting the regulation of aviation supply chain
in Pakistan airline industry so that these impacts can be minimize and Pakistan airline industry can
be operate in stable environment. These limitations can be manage in future studies so that more
valid and reliable results can be conclude.

50
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APPENDIX A
1. Which of the following outcome of Covid-19 has a greater impact on airlines you have
realized?
a. Fuel consumption
b. Economic growth
c. Profitability
d. Passenger flow

2. At what extent COVID-19 disrupted the flow of air traffic?

a. Highly
b. Neutral
c. Average
d. Below average

3. Shift in air traffic demand create a shift in aviation fuel supply chain.
a. Strongly Agree
b. Agree
c. Neutral
d. Disagree
e. Strongly Disagree
4. Regular operations leads to regular demand for aviation fuel supply.
a. Strongly Agree
b. Agree
c. Neutral
d. Disagree
e. Strongly Disagree

5. Aviation fuel supply chain depends on frequency of passenger flights.

a. Strongly Agree
b. Agree
c. Neutral
d. Disagree
e. Strongly Disagree

6. COVID-19 had an impact on aviation fuel supply chain.

a. Strongly Agree
b. Agree
c. Neutral
d. Disagree

58
 e. Strongly Disagree

7. During pandemic COVID-19, a prominent reduction in CO2 has been estimated which
indicates less fuel usage by aircrafts.
a. Strongly Agree
b. Agree
c. Neutral
d. Disagree
e. Strongly Disagree

8. Fuel supply chain operations was better before pandemic COVID-19.

a. Strongly Agree
b. Agree
c. Neutral
d. Disagree
e. Strongly Disagree

9. Pakistan airline industry faced disruption in aviation fuel supply during COVID-19
a. Strongly Agree
b. Agree
c. Neutral
d. Disagree
e. Strongly Disagree

10. Due to covid-19, Pakistan airlines were restricted to operate passenger flow across border
which leads to reduction in ovation fuel supply chain.
a. Strongly Agree
b. Agree
c. Neutral
d. Disagree
e. Strongly Disagree

59