Green Belt Course Structure

• Introduction to • Introduction to • Introduction to

Root Cause variation Lean and Six
Analysis • Understanding Sigma
• Data Driven Variation • Simple and
GAMMA

Techniques • Process robust problem

TAU
PSI
• Process Stability solving
focused • Process • Define the
techniques Capability problem
• Validating root • Improving • Measure the
cause process output correctly
stability and • Fix the problem
process permanently at
capability the source

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Identify Critical Causes / X’s

Potential X’s
A Graphical Tools X X X X X X X X X X C Statistical Tools
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X
1. Pareto Plot
1. 2 Proportion Test
2. Scatter Plot
2. Chi square Test
3. 2 Sample T Test
Process Map 4. ANOVA
B
Based Tools
5. Correlation and
1. FMEA
XXX Regression
2. VA/NVA Analysis
Critical X’s

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Green Belt Workshop Module GAMMA -3

-3
Population vs Data
Sample Classification

Hypothesis
Testing

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Population vs Sample
➢ Population: All the items that have the “property of interest”
under study.
➢ Sample: A significantly smaller subset of the population used
to make an inference.

Population

Sample
Sample
Sample

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 Sampling techniques (Probability)
Simple random Systematic
Stratified sampling Cluster sampling
sampling sampling
Every unit of the Similar to simple Population is divided into Involves dividing the
population has an random sampling, subgroups (called strata) based population into smaller
equal chance of but instead of on a relevant characteristic. groups known as
being selected. randomly Random or systematic sampling is clusters. Instead of
Ensures unbiased generating used to select a sample from sampling individuals,
selection. numbers, units each subgroup. Appropriate entire subgroups are
Generally is a part are chosen at when the population has mixed randomly selected. This
of other sampling regular intervals. characteristics, and we want method is good for
techniques. Appropriate every characteristic to be dealing with large and
when data comes proportionally represented in the dispersed
in a timely sample. (geographically)
fashion. populations.

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Statistical Notation – Cheat Sheet
Measure Population Sample Statistic
Parameter
Mean μ X
Variance σ2 S2
Standard Deviation σ S

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Descriptive & Inferential Statistics
Statistics are often divided into two branches: Descriptive and
Inferential statistics:

Descriptive statistics focus on the collection, analysis,

presentation and description of a set of data.

Inferential statistics focus on making decisions about a large set

of data, called the population, from a subset of the data, called
the sample.

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Green Belt Workshop Module GAMMA -3

-3
Population vs Data
Sample Classification

Hypothesis
Testing

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Data Types

Attribute/Discrete Continuous
➢ Colors ➢ Dimensions
➢ Gender ➢ Profit
➢ Region ➢ Sales Revenue
➢ No. of tickets ➢ Handle Time
➢ No. of defects ➢ Lead Time
➢ No. of clicks ➢ Turn Around Time
➢ No. of items sold ➢ Weight
➢ Temperature

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Identify type of data

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Green Belt Workshop Module GAMMA -3

-3
Population vs Data
Sample Classification

Hypothesis
Testing

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Hypothesis Testing

➢ Hypothesis Testing is a systematic method for testing a claim or hypothesis

about a parameter of a population, through a sample. A Hypothesis Test
specifies whether to accept or reject this claim depending on the evidence
provided by the sample.
➢ When we estimate the properties of a population from a sample, the
sample statistics are unlikely to be exactly equal to the actual population
values. The difference between the sample statistic and the population
value is the Sampling Error.
➢ If Sampling Error causes the observed difference, the next time someone
performs the sampling again, the results might be different. Hypothesis
Testing incorporates estimates of the sampling error to help us make the
correct decision.

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Sampling Error
Sample 2

Sample 3

Sample 4
Sample 1

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Example: Hypothesis Testing
Before VS. After
✓ It is claimed that a process has been
improved in yield by bringing a change in an Catalyst A Catalyst B
89.7 84.7
important factor “Catalyst”. Yield data are
81.4 86.1
collected from both the processes.
84.5 83.2

✓ Random samples are drawn from yield data 84.8 90.2

87.3 86.3
from process A and process B.
79.7 79.3
85.1 82.6
81.7 89.1
83.7 83.7
84.5 88.5

“Is there a real difference between Process A and Process B?”

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Descriptive Statistics Helpful?
Can we say that the yield of improved Process B is greater than old Process A?

Descriptive Statistics
Variable Catalyst N Mean Std. Dev.
Yield A 10 84.24 2.90
B 10 85.37 3.35

Is this difference in mean just due to chance?

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When to use Hypothesis testing?

Define Use Descriptive

business Statistics
problem (Numeric/Graphical)

No
Use Inferential
Conclusive Statistics
(Hypothesis Testing)
Yes

Business decision

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Hypothesis Testing Flow

Choose an Formulate Null (H0) & Run the test in

appropriate Alternate (HA) Minitab using
hypothesis test hypothesis sample data

Statistical Conclusion: Compare P-value

Accept the Null or Alternate from the results
Hypothesis based on P-value to α

If H0 is accepted, then the X in question has no impact

on the Y.
Business
Decision
If HA is accepted, then the X is question has an impact
on the Y. However, one needs to confirm practical
significance of this impact.

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 Hypothesis Test Selection
Output Input “X” is Appropriate Test Purpose
“Y” is… …
Discrete in 2 Compare 2
Discrete 2-proportion test
categories proportions/percentages
Discrete in
Compare > 2
Discrete more than 2 Chi-square test
proportions/percentages
categories

Discrete in 2
Continuous 2- sample t-test Compare 2 means (averages)
categories

Discrete in
Continuous more than 2 One-Way ANOVA Compare > 2 means (averages)
categories

Scatter Plot, Correlation Understand relationship

Continuous Continuous between two continuous
Linear Regression variables

https://www.benchmarksixsigma.com/guide-to-right-hypothesis-test/

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H0 and HA Statements
Develop the hypothesis for population and make statistical decisions by
determining the acceptance of the hypothesis using sample data.
✓ Null Hypothesis (H0) : The “null hypothesis” assumes that there are no
differences or relationships. This is the default assumption of all statistical
tests.
✓ Alternative Hypothesis (HA) : The “alternative hypothesis” states that
there is a difference or relationship

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Errors in Hypothesis Testing
Truth about the population
Decision H0 is True HA is True
based on
sample
Accept H0 Correct Decision Type II Error - fail to reject
(probability = 1 - α) H0 when it is false
(probability = β)

Accept HA Type I Error - rejecting Correct Decision

H0 when it is true (probability = 1 - β)
(probability = α)

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Types of Errors
➢ The alpha risk or Type 1 Error (generally called the “Producer’s Risk”) is the
probability that we could be wrong in saying that something is “different.”
It is an assessment of the likelihood that the observed difference could
have occurred by random chance. Alpha is the primary decision-making tool
of most statistical tests. It is decided up-front.

➢ The Confidence level is one minus the alpha level (1-)

➢ The beta risk or Type 2 Error (also called the “Consumer’s Risk”) is the
probability that we could be wrong in saying that two or more things are
the same when, in fact, they are different. It is determined from the
circumstances of the situation. If alpha is made very small, then beta
increases (all else being equal).To minimize beta, while holding alpha
constant, requires increased sample sizes

➢ One minus Beta is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is
false. This is referred to as the Power of the test.

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P-value
➢ Decision-making for a Hypothesis Test is done using the p-value.

➢ P-value is the probability that we would obtain the effect observed in our sample, or
larger, if the null hypothesis were true. In simpler terms, p-values tell us how strongly
our sample data contradict the null.

➢ Lower p-values represent stronger evidence against the null.

If p is less than α, reject H0 and accept HA

If p is greater than α, accept H0 and reject HA

➢ Generally, the acceptance level of a Type I error is 0.05. Thus, any p-value less than
0.05 means we reject the Null Hypothesis.

➢ P value applies for ALL Hypothesis tests!

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