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Aam Aadmi�s welfare to fare well for FMCG

SECTIONSAam Aadmi�s welfare to fare well for FMCGET BureauLast Updated: Jun 05,
2024, 08:48:00 AM ISTWhatsapp Follow Channel
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Synopsis
FMCG stocks favored as money exits PSU stocks. Strengthening consumer sentiment,
rural market support are priorities for BJP.
FMCG---AgenciesAgencies
On a day when the Sensex plunges over 5,000 points, one can trust the FMCG stocks -
especially the consumer staples - to live up to their reputation as the rescuer of
last resort.

HUL closed nearly 6% higher, Dabur 5.6%, Nestle over 3%, Colgate Palmolive nearly
4.5%, Marico over 3%, Britannia over 3%, and Tata Consumer Products 1.7%. Among the
leading FMCG companies, ITC was the only one to close 2.4% lower - ahead of the
crucial vote on the demerger of its hotel business.

With a weaker mandate, the agenda for the BJP-led NDA government is likely to
switch from growth to welfare with the government being under pressure to roll out
populist measures for boosting consumption. In a bearish market, the TINA (there is
no alternative) factor burnishes the allure of otherwise defensive FMCG stocks.

According to a senior FMCG analyst who has tracked the sector for over two decades,
there are two main reasons for the interest in FMCG stocks. "First, during
uncertainty, investors tend to move from high beta stocks to low beta ones.
Secondly, the upcoming budget may focus on stimulus measures and increase
disposable income," he said.
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Within the broad consumption theme, consumer staples are holding up while
discretionary are down. For instance, the stock of Devyani International closed
over 2.5% lower, Jubilant FoodWorks closed just 0.5% higher, Titan closed 0.6%
lower and TTK Prestige closed 1.5% lower for the day.

"As there is no clear mandate for BJP, they will have to work on strengthening the
consumer sentiment - especially providing support for rural markets," said Sachin
Bobade, vice president-research at Dolat Capital. "In the stock market, the money
that is exiting the PSU stocks is finding a safe haven in the FMCG stocks. And till
the markets remain dicey, the FMCG stocks shall remain in favour."

According to Abneesh Roy, executive director at Nuvama Institutional Equities, the


new government is likely to be more consumption-focused than earlier when it was
more focused on capex and infrastructure. The pricing growth for consumer
companies, which was negative in FY24, is likely to come back in FY25. Raw material
prices are also benign - aiding profitability. The sector valuations are reasonable
when compared to five years ago - especially for Dabur, HUL, Britannia, Marico and
Asian Paints.

A good monsoon, a supportive budget and a surge in consumer demand ahead of the
festive season are likely triggers for the buying interest in these stocks, which
have seen subdued performance on bourses barring a few exceptions.
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