New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics

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A review of break‐out floods from volcanogenic

lakes in New Zealand

V. Manville, K. A. Hodgson & I. A. Nairn

To cite this article: V. Manville, K. A. Hodgson & I. A. Nairn (2007) A review of break‐out floods
from volcanogenic lakes in New Zealand, New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics,
50:2, 131-150, DOI: 10.1080/00288300709509826

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New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 2007, Vol. 50: 131-150
0028-8306/07/5002-0131 © The Royal Society of New Zealand 2007
A review of break-out floods from volcanogenic lakes in New Zealand
V. MANVILLE1,*
K. A. HODGSON2
I. A. NAIRN3,1
1
GNS Science
Wairakei Research Centre
Private Bag 2000
Taupo, New Zealand
2
Western Heights High School
Old Quarry Road
Rotorua, New Zealand
3 Zealand caldera lake break-outs as amongst the largest known
45 Summit Road
RD5, Rotorua, New Zealand
*Corresponding author: v.manville@gns.cri.nz
Abstract New Zealand hosts numerous lakes in its active
volcanic areas. These water bodies are developed in calderas,
volcano-tectonic collapse structures, explosion craters, and
valleys dammed by lava, pyroclastic, or laharic flows. They
range in scale and elevation from small shallow ponds a few
metres above sea level in Auckland, through volcano-tectonic
collapse structures such as the Rotorua and Taupo calderas
that hold many cubic kilometres of water at a height of a few
hundred metres, to the summit Crater Lake of Mt Ruapehu,
which contains c. 9 × 106 m3 of hot acidic water at an altitude
of 2530 m. The combination of active volcanism and New
Zealand's temperate climate means that new lakes can form
or old ones overfill rapidly following activity at any volcanic
centre.
Lakes in volcanic environments are often relatively short-
lived features compared with those in tectonic settings, being
prone to rapid formation and/or modification/destruction by
both primary volcanic processes and the secondary effects of
post-eruptive landscape re-adjustment. In addition to primary
eruption-related volcano-hydrologic hazards, significant de-
layed hazards can also result from partial to total failure of
impounding barriers of volcanic material. For example, New
Zealand's worst volcanic disaster, the 1953 Tangiwai lahar,
which resulted in 151 deaths, was caused by partial failure of
the rim of Mt Ruapehu's Crater Lake 8 yr after the 1945 erup-
tion had ended. Most recently, post-1996 refilling of the lake
behind a barrier of unconsolidated tephra laid down during
the 1995/96 eruption sequence culminated in breaching and
failure of the dam on 18 March 2007, resulting in the release
of 1.3 × 106 m3 of water and generation of the largest historic
lahar at the volcano.
Historical reports and geomorphic/sedimentologic studies
demonstrate that many of New Zealand's volcanogenic lakes
have been the source of large-magnitude floods, some of
G06017; Online publication date 14 May 2007
Received 26 June 2006; accepted 2 May 2007
131
which have caused major re-organisation of regional drainage
networks. Post-eruption failures of the topographic rim of the
Taupo caldera have produced catastrophic releases of up to
60 km3 of water, whereas intracaldera lakes hosted within the
Okataina and Rotorua Volcanic Centres have also been the
source of repeated floods. At least four events have been
identified from Lake Tarawera (Okataina Volcanic Centre) in
response to volcanogenic modification of the lake basin and
catchment, most recently following the AD 1886 Tarawera
eruption. Paleohydraulic reconstructions of dam-breach
hydrographs and downstream flood discharge rank some New
Holocene floods on Earth.
Keywords volcano-hydrologic hazards; caldera and crater
lakes; paleohydrology; floods; lahars; natural hazards
INTRODUCTION
Volcanogenic lakes in New Zealand
Volcanogenic lakes are here defined as those formed as a
result of volcanic activity: volcanic lakes are restricted to
those which host a vent. Volcanogenic lakes in New Zealand
are concentrated in four main areas that coincide with the
distribution of recent volcanism (Fig. 1): the Taupo Volcanic
Zone, the Auckland Volcanic Field, the Bay of Islands-Kai-
kohe Volcanic Field, and around Mt Taranaki (Lowe & Green
1992). A few lakes are located on offshore volcanoes such
as Mayor Island, White Island, and Raoul Island. A number
of volcanogenic lakes are also developed along rivers drain-
ing the central North Island, principally the Waikato, where
volcaniclastic aggradation has dammed tributary streams.
Most are relatively young, at least in their present form.
However, widespread diatomaceous and volcaniclastic la-
custrine sediments in the Taupo Volcanic Zone indicate that
large, long-lived lakes have been a feature for much of its
1.6 m.y. history (Grange 1937; Healy et al. 1964; Smith et
al. 1993). The most recently formed volcanogenic lakes in
New Zealand include Lake Rotomahana, formed after the AD
1886 Tarawera eruption (Nairn 1979; Walker et al. 1984); Mt
Ruapehu's Crater Lake, which reformed in the active crater
after the 1995/96 eruption sequence; and the crater lake on
White Island, which began to fill in August 2003.
Volcanogenic lake basins are typically formed by one or
more of three main processes. The largest impoundments
develop in caldera collapse structures formed as a result of
magma withdrawal and surface subsidence during large ex-
plosive eruptions (Williams 1941) and often superimposed
on regional tectonic depressions. Examples are Lake Taupo
(Lowe & Green 1992) and Lake Rotorua. Smaller explosive
eruptions produce craters up to 2 km in diameter, often at
elevations several kilometres above the surrounding land-
scape, such as the summit crater on Mt Ruapehu (Christenson
132
& Wood 1993; Delmelle & Bernard 2000). Hydrothermal
(phreatic) and hydromagmatic (phreatomagmatic) eruption
craters (maars and tuff-rings) are typically smaller than 2 km
in diameter and comprise a central pit ringed by a raised ejecta
rim (Lorenz 1973) and are common in the Auckland Volcanic
Field (e.g., Lake Pupuke). The third main type of volcano-
genic lake basin arises where existing drainage valleys are
blocked by lava flows, pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches,
and laharic deposits. Volcanic-damming is responsible for 8%
of all naturally dammed lakes, making volcanism the third
most common dam-forming mechanism (Costa & Schuster
1988). Numerous lava-flow-dammed lakes occur within the
Okataina Volcanic Centre including Lakes Rotoiti, Rotoehu,
Tarawera, Okataina, Okareka, Tikitapu, and Rotokakahi; ex-
amples in the Auckland Volcanic Field are Western Springs
and Lake Waiatarua; and Lake Owhareiti is an example
from the Bay of Islands-Kaikohe Volcanic Field. Lake Rere-
whakaaitu (on the margin of the Okataina Volcanic Centre)
reached its present state after pyroclastic flow damming 700
yr ago, while numerous lakes along the lower Waikato, includ-
ing Waikare and Rotongaro, were formed and/or modified by
sediment aggradation in the aftermath of the 26.5 and 1.8 ka1
eruptions of Taupo (Green & Lowe 1985; Lowe 1988).
Volcano-hydrologic hazards
The combination of volcanic activity with standing bodies
of water, often at altitude and with unstable margins, gives
rise to a number of unique hazards caused by a wide range
of different mechanisms (Neall 1996). These may be broadly
divided into those directly related to volcanic activity, such
as steam (phreatic) explosions (Moore et al. 1966), eruptions
through a crater lake (Mastin & Witter 2000), pyroclastic
1
All ages within the 14C range are reported in calibrated/calendar
years before present.
New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 2007, Vol. 50
Fig. 1 A, location map of ac-
tive volcanic regions in the North
Island, New Zealand. B, Distribu-
tion of volcanogenic lakes in the
Taupo Volcanic Zone, and late
Pleistocene lacustrine sediments
(striped areas).
flows interacting with water (Brantley & Waitt 1988), melting
of snow and ice by volcanic heat (Waitt 1989; Pierson et al.
1990; Walder 2000), and volcanogenic tsunami (Latter 1981;
Watts & Waythomas 2003). Volcano-hydrologic phenomena
indirectly associated or non-synchronous with volcanic ac-
tivity include gas releases from crater lakes and/or magma
beneath crater lakes (Sigurdsson et al. 1987; Tazieff 1989),
rain-triggered lahars (Waldron 1967; Tungol & Regalado
1996; Hodgson & Manville 1999), and volcanic lake break-
outs (O'Shea 1954; Waythomas et al. 1996; Manville et al.
1999; Manville & Wilson 2004; Hodgson & Nairn 2005). It is
the last that is the focus of this paper: previously such events
have been reported either individually or in compilations
of natural and man-made dam failures (Costa 1985; Costa
& Schuster 1988; Schuster 2000; O'Connor et al. 2002) or
reviews of volcano-hydrologic hazards and fatalities (Neall
1976, 1996; Mastin & Witter 2000). Only recently has the
study of volcanogenic lake break-outs become a discipline
in its own right, with evidence of extreme events reported
at Aniakchak, Alaska (Waythomas et al. 1996), Lake Taupo
(Manville et al. 1999; Manville & Wilson 2004), and Lake
Tarawera (Hodgson & Nairn 2004,2005).
LAKe t A u p o
Lake Taupo is the largest body of fresh water in Australasia,
covering c. 620 km2 and holding 60 km3 of water, with a
surface elevation of 367 m. The modern lake owes its form
to volcanic activity since 50 ka, and in particular to the 26.5
ka Oruanui eruption. Before 26.5 ka, the Taupo-Reporoa
depression (Fig. 1) was occupied by a large long-standing
lake, informally referred to as Lake Huka (Manville & Wil-
son 2004), for much of the mid-late Pleistocene (Smith et
al. 1993). This water body developed in aNNE-trending and
westward-deepening asymmetric graben, locally overprinted
with caldera structures, that formed as a result of long-term
Manville et al.—Volcanic floods review
regional extension and subsidence (Davey et al. 1995). Its
former distribution can be inferred from widespread diato-
maceous and pumice-bearing lake sediments seen in outcrop
and boreholes (cf. the Huka Falls Formation of Grindley
1965) between Taupo and Reporoa (Fig. 1), but subsequent
volcano-tectonic activity has obscured much of the detail.
Limited geological evidence (Thompson 1958; Manville &
Wilson 2004) indicates that Lake Huka drained via an ances-
tral Waikato River through the Ongaroto Gorge and thence
into the Hauraki Plains.
The 530 km3 (magma volume) Oruanui eruption at 26.5 ka
(Wilson 2001), one of the largest eruptions worldwide since
75 ka, effectively destroyed Lake Huka and created a new
closed topographic basin that eventually hosted Lake Taupo
(Fig. 2). Pre-eruption modifications to Lake Huka by minor
precursory eruptions and deformation associated with caldera
unrest are detailed elsewhere (Manville & Wilson 2004). The
Oruanui eruption involved 10 phases, virtually all mediated
by interaction between vesiculated magma and remnants of
Lake Huka, with pyroclastic density currents (mostly ignim-
brites) occurring throughout. The wholly unwelded deposits
of these flows occur to at least 90 km from the source, cover
c. 12 000 km2, and reach thicknesses of >200 m in proximal
areas where they define a topographic rim c. 50 km in diam-
eter at an altitude of 600-700 m on the north and northeast
sides of the caldera (Wilson 1991). Generation of a sub-
stantial caldera during the eruption is indicated by a sharply
delineated c. 140 km2 Bouguer gravity anomaly of-50 mgal
that occupies the central northern part of Lake Taupo (Davy
& Caldwell 1998). This area is ringed by a collapse collar,
best developed on the western side of the lake, where mass
wasting and scarp retreat as a result of caldera collapse have
produced a series of arcuate embayments that vertically trun-
cate thick sheets of welded Whakamaru Group ignimbrites.
The northern margin of the lake comprises a series of bays
separated by intervening headlands formed by pre-Oruanui
rhyolite domes, all cut by NNE-striking faults of the Taupo
Fault Belt (Villamor & Berryman 2001). Vertical offsets of
the Oruanui ignimbrite surface increase to the south on these
faults, suggesting sympathetic movement on these structures
during caldera formation (Manville & Wilson 2003). The
southern part of modern Lake Taupo is identified from geo-
logic and geophysical data as an asymmetric graben (Wilson
et al. 1984; Davy & Caldwell 1998), formed or enlarged by
sympathetic downwarping on regional structures during the
Oruanui eruption (Wilson 2001). The eastern shoreline of the
lake has largely been modified by post-Oruanui activity and
collapse, particularly following the 1.8 ka Taupo eruption
(Davy & Caldwell 1998), and represents a flexural downsag
towards the caldera.
Post-Oruanui 26.5 ka flood
The Oruanui eruption had a number of profound effects on
the paleogeography of the central North Island, reflecting the
complex interplay between levels of Lake Taupo, erosion,
volcaniclastic aggradation, and drainage diversions (Manville
& Wilson 2004). Caldera collapse, coupled with ignimbrite
emplacement that formed a raised topographic rim around the
eruption centre, created a large closed basin and constructed
a substantial geomorphic barrier between areas of different
elevation. In the aftermath of the eruption, a nascent Lake
Taupo began to accumulate in the southern basin, while a
second lake developed in the partially ignimbrite-filled Re-
poroa basin to the north (Pain & Pullar 1975).
133
M
M
Fig. 2 Drainage diversions associated with the post-Oruanui 26.5
ka highstand and break-outfloodfromLake Taupo overlain on 20 m
shaded digital elevation model (Land Information New Zealand
data): (1) pre-eruption Waikato River route, Reporoa-Mangakino-
Hinuera-Hauraki plains; (2) post-eruption highstand overflow route,
Waihora-Mangakino-Hinuera-Hauraki plains; (3) break-out flood
route and subsequent Waikato River course, Taupo-Reporoa-Man-
gakino-Hinuera-Hamilton basin.
Lake Taupo initially filled to a highstand level of c. 500 m,
as indicated by the highest of a pair of irregularly preserved
marginal shoreline terraces (Grange 1937; Manville & Wilson
2003,2004; Hughes 2005). These markers are best preserved
around the western side of the Taupo basin, where a pair of
6-8 m high steps at 500 and 480 m are cut into a gently lake-
ward-dipping surface of Oruanui deposits above the cliffed
topographic rim of the caldera (Fig. 3 A). Each step consists
of a wave-cut platform, with a veneer of beach sediments on
the terrace tread (Fig. 3B) and locally a back-beach berm of
rounded pumice pebbles emplaced by rafting and wave action,
and a wave-cut cliff forming the terrace riser (cf. Manville
2001a); younger weathered pyroclastics and volcanic loess
drape both steps. Elsewhere around the lake basin, only the
better developed lower step and coarse-grained beach sedi-
ment lag are preserved.
Estimates of the time necessary to refill the basin to the
highstand level are hampered by uncertainties concerning
such factors as: basin bathymetry; inflow rates; how much
water may have remained from pre-eruption Lake Huka;
water volumes required to establish a water table in fresh
pyroclastic deposits; and evaporative losses under Last Gla-
cial Maximum conditions (Pillans et al. 1993). However,
as a first approximation, it has been estimated that it would
take <200 yr for the surface level of Lake Taupo to reach
overflow at 500 m altitude, with the lake covering an area of
c. 700 km2 and having a volume of c. 175 km3 (Manville &
Wilson 2004).
Overtopping initially occurred at c. 500 m elevation in
the Waihora area, 20 km west of the modern outlet; overspill
and consequent erosion of the outlet caused a lake level drop
of 10-20 m to a level controlled by a resistant sill of welded
ignimbrite (Manville & Wilson 2004). A better developed
134 New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 2007, Vol. 50

Fig. 3 A, Post-26.5 ka Oruanui highstand terraces above the western bays of Lake Taupo. B, Massive Oruanui ignimbrite (A) exposed
in subdivision road-cut, overlain by post-26.5 ka highstand shoreline deposits (B) capped by tephric loess (C) deposited after lake level
fall.

Fig. 4 Time-line illustrating

changes in the elevation of Lake
Taupo, together with significant
eruptions from the Taupo Volcanic
Centre (after Wilson 1993) and
the Okataina Volcanic Centre.
Solid stars are confirmed break-out
floods; hollow stars are possible.

Fig. 5 A, Outsize boulder form-

ing part of the Smythe's Quarry
Boulder bed (Thompson 1958), a
post-Oruanui 26.5 ka flood deposit
80 km downstream of the outlet to
Lake Taupo. Intermediate axis of
boulder measures 11m, scale bar
(arrowed) 1 m.B, Coarse bouldery
gravel facies forming the matrix
of the Smythe's Quarry Boulder
bed.

shoreline terrace at an altitude of c. 480 m within the lake
basin indicates a persistent stillstand, whereas overflow to the
north towards Mangakino stripped Oruanui pyroclastic depos-
its from the area west of the lower Mangakino Stream.
Meanwhile, the integrity of the Oruanui ignimbrite pla-
teau in the Wairakei area was being compromised, most
likely by headward retreat of extracaldera tributaries of the
Waikato River, with the possible aid of groundwater sapping
as Lake Taupo filled to a level above the underlying relatively
impermeable Huka Group lake sediments. The caldera rim
was breached in the Taupo area some time before 22.5 ka, as
marked by Okareka Tephra from the Okataina Volcanic Centre
Manville et al.—Volcanic floods review
Fig. 6 A, Transgressive shoreline and lacustrine deposits overlying an erosional unconformity (arrowed) cut into primary 1.8 ka Taupo
Ignimbrite, laid-down during the post-eruptive rise of Lake Taupo to c. 34 m above modern lake level (Acacia Bay, Lake Taupo). B, Post-
Taupo 1.8 ka highstand shoreline marked by the 1-2 m high step (arrowed) and transition between subaerially gullied Taupo Ignimbrite
to the left and smooth, wave-washed subaqueous deposits to the right (Acacia Bay, Lake Taupo).
(Newnham et al. 2003) draping the erosional unconformity.
The level of Lake Taupo fell by 75-80 m in a single phase
(Fig. 4), as inferred from the absence of any intermediate
stillstand terrace levels within the basin, and consistent with
the lack of any intermediate-level resistant horizons within
the Oruanui ignimbrite that would have hindered downcut-
ting. This sudden release of c. 60 km3 of water is correlated
with indicators of a catastrophic flood along the course of
the modern Waikato River between Taupo and Mangakino
100 km downstream. Evidence includes a massive bouldery
unit, the Smythe's Quarry Boulder Member of the Atiamuri
Beds, which can be traced between 68 and 88 km downstream
of Lake Taupo (Fig. 5), and which unconformably overlies
primary Oruanui pyroclastic deposits filling a pre-26.5 ka pa-
leovalley (Thompson 1958). The Smythe's Quarry unit com-
prises boulders up to 10 m in diameter arranged in imbricate
cluster bedforms (Brayshaw 1984) and bar forms separated by
anastomosing braid channels, in a matrix of finer gravels and
coarse sand, and is buried by the main phase of post-eruptive
fluvial volcaniclastics. Breaching of the topographic rim of the
caldera in the Taupo area beheaded the Waihora-Mangakino
flowpath and added c. 60 km to the course of the upper
Waikato River (Fig. 2); evidence that the flood also played a
role in the switching of the course of the lower Waikato River
from its post-340 ka route through the Hauraki Plains to the
Hamilton basin is inconclusive (Manville & Wilson 2004).
The post-26.5 ka floodwater surface level of Lake Taupo,
of c. 405 m, marked by shoreline sediments in the Taupo
area, is inferred to have been controlled by a broad surface
of indurated Huka Falls Formation sediments immediately
downstream of the modern outlet, where the surface is capped
by a several-metre-thick lag veneer of dense lithic gravel
locally cemented by hydrothermal activity. Subsequent en-
trenchment of the Waikato River below this surface gradually
lowered the level of Lake Taupo to approximately its modern
elevation of 357 m some time before 12 ka, as indicated by
the preservation of younger Taupo-derived pyroclastic units
within metres of the modern Waikato River level between
Taupo and Wairakei. This level is controlled by a resis-
tant horizon of silicified, indurated volcaniclastic sediments
and (?)primary ignimbrite at Huka Falls, 6 km downstream
of the outlet. Limited evidence suggests a brief highstand
c. 6-10 m above modern lake level occurred following the
135
3.5 ka Waimihia (Unit S) eruption, the largest eruption from
the Taupo volcano between the Oruanui and Taupo events.
At a single lake-edge outcrop, subaerial Unit V fall overlies
weathered Waimihia-derived lake sediments (Wilson 1993),
whereas the top of Unit V also appears to be water-reworked,
suggesting a possible second brief highstand (Fig. 5). Choking
of the lake outlet by Waimihia pyroclastics and damming to
an elevation of 367-370 m would impound an extra 6 km3 of
water, creating the potential for a significant outbreak flood.
Post-Taupo 1.8 ka flood
The narrow outlet gorge to Lake Taupo was dammed by
voluminous pyroclastic flow deposits of the Taupo Ignim-
brite at 1.8 ka (Wilson & Walker 1985). At the climax of
the eruption, much of the pre-eruption lake was expelled,
evaporated, or drained into a subrectangular caldera collapse
structure beneath the current lake floor (Davy & Caldwell
1998), as inferred from a sub-lake floor bench at a height of
c. 250 m visible on seismic profiles (Lister 1978). After the
eruption, Lake Taupo refilled to a mean highstand level of
c. 400 m, marked by a semi-continuous, tectonically warped
and offset wave-cut bench and highstand shoreline depos-
its (Clarkson 1996; Wilson et al. 1997; Riggs et al. 2001;
Manville & Wilson 2003). Filling is inferred to have taken
several decades (Wilson & Walker 1985; Smith 1991) and
produced a succession of onlapping, transgressive shoreline
sediments (Fig. 6).
Failure of the unconsolidated pumiceous pyroclastic dam
filling the former outlet channel was initiated by overtopping,
and is inferred to have been catastrophic based on the absence
of intermediate shoreline terraces between the c. 400 m high-
stand terrace and a wave-cut bench at 368-371 m elevation
(Manville et al. 1999), releasing c. 20 km3 of water in a single
phase. Flood deposits can be traced for over 220 km down-
stream of Lake Taupo (Manville et al. 1999; Manville 2002)
and include: a 12 km long vertical-walled spillway floored
with lithic gravel and boulder lags immediately downstream
of the outlet; exhumed river terraces and streamlined land-
forms sculpted from older deposits; bouldery fan deposits
and expansion bars downstream of valley constrictions;
fine-grained slackwater deposits in off-channel embayments
and hydraulically ponded depressions; valley-wide erosional
unconformities; and buried forests in distal areas.
136 New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 2007, Vol. 50

Fig. 7 Index map of the Rotorua,

b r <•"•»* i?r E Okataina, and Kapenga Volcanic
Centres overlain on a 20 m shaded
7j digital elevation model (Land In-
formation New Zealand data).

?ara^;
^ - ^ ^ ^*j b ^ v ^
1^
\ caldcra ;**
0 Kni 10

LAKe t A r A w e r A A n d t h e h A r o h A r o
cALderA
Lake Tarawera lies within the 50 ka Haroharo caldera in the
Okataina Volcanic Centre (Fig. 7). Intermittently exposed la-
custrine sediments within the Haroharo caldera and subsidiary
embayments indicate that the caldera was occupied by one or
more large lakes following the 280 ka Matahina Ignimbrite
eruption (Bailey & Carr 1994) and the 50 ka Rotoiti Breccia2
(Nairn 2002). These water bodies have largely been displaced
to marginal moat lakes through growth of the Haroharo and
Tarawera dome complexes during a series of post-25 ka erup-
tive episodes (Nairn 1989,2002). The largest, Lake Tarawera,
Published ages for the Rotoiti eruption range between 74 and 40
ka (Wilson et al. 1992; Lian & Shane 2000). The 50 ka age adopted
in this paper is based on marine, terrestrial, and lacustrine records
calibrated by Marine Isotope Stage data (Pillans & Wright 1992;
Berryman 1992; Shane & Sandiford 2003; Shane et al. 2006).
covers 41 km2 between the western rim of the caldera and
resurgent lava domes to the north and east. The 2.3 km3 lake
currently overflows at an elevation of 298 m via the Tarawera
River, flowing 50 km northeast to the Bay of Plenty coast. The
present lake outlet is controlled where Tapahoro lava flows
from the c. 5.6 ka Whakatane eruption of Haroharo volcano
onlap 13.8 ka Pokuhu lavas erupted from Tarawera.
e a r l y history
Modern Lake Tarawera represents a remnant of a much larger
water body that is inferred to have developed in the caldera
structures formed by eruption of the quartz-biotite tuffs,
Bonisch Pyroclastics, and the 280 ka Matahina Ignimbrite
from the Okataina Volcanic Centre (Nairn 2002). The proto-
lake overflowed into the subsiding Whakatane Graben at an
elevation of 150-200 m and cut the ancestral Kawerau canyon
(Hodgson & Nairn 2004). Subsequent eruptions from the
adjacent Rotorua (Milner et al. 2003) and Reporoa calderas
(Nairn et al. 1994) partially filled the basin at 240-220 ka
before renewed caldera collapse associated with the 50 ka

Fig. 8 Paleogeographic reconstruction of the evolution of the Rotorua/Okataina Volcanic Centres and their respective drainage systems. >
A, Post-50 ka Rotoiti 370-380 m highstand of Lake Rotorua overflows via a stable outlet, alternatively: (i) northwest through the Tikitere
Graben into the Haroharo caldera where a lake is developed at c. 100 m, overflowing into the Tarawera River via the Kawerau canyon;
(ii) north via a sill west of Mourea into the Kaituna catchment; (iii) north via subterranean paths into the Kaituna catchment; or (iv) south
through the Hemo Gorge into the Kapenga basin and Waikato River. Meanwhile, the Haroharo caldera accumulates a lake to a temporary
highstand level of c. 200 m. B, Between 28 and 26.5 ka the barrier between the Rotorua and Haroharo basins fails, releasing c. 10 km3
of water into the Haroharo lake/Tarawera River system as Lake Rotorua drops by 90-110 m. c , Growth of the Haroharo dome complex
during the 25 ka Te Rere eruption episode leads to the formation of Lake Rotoiti at 260 m and begins to restrict the Haroharo caldera lake
to the south-central basin. d, Continued growth of the Haroharo and Tarawera dome complexes further confines ancestral Lake Tarawera;
damming of the caldera outlet by 13.8 ka Waiohau eruptives forces its level above 220 m. e , The 9.5 ka Rotoma eruption episode blocks
the connection between the Rotorua and Haroharo catchments, forcing Lake Rotoiti to rise to a level where it overtops a southward retreat-
ing headwater of the Kaituna River system to establish a northerly drainage of the Rotorua-Rotoiti catchment. The 8 ka Mamaku eruption
dams the outlet to Lake Tarawera causing it to rise above 320 m. F, The 5.6 ka Whakatane eruption dams the outlet to Lake Tarawera,
resulting in a prolonged highstand that gradually declines from 330 to 315 m by 0.7 ka.
Manville et al.—Volcanic floods review 137

A: pddE-30 kA B: ka

oost-13

F post-5.6 k? Wl-Ljih,i1ri™j cwTjpinxi

138
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TTTTTTT
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160-
120-
100-
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in
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Fig. 9 Time-line illustrating changes in the elevation of the lakes developed in the Haroharo caldera together with significant volcanic
eruptions from Okataina and the Taupo Volcanic Centre (TVC). Mangaone Subgroup ages after Smith et al. (2005). Note changes in time-
scale at 60 ka and AD 1000. Solid stars are confirmed break-out floods; shaded stars are probable; hollow stars are possible.
Rotoiti eruption formed the Haroharo caldera in the northern
part of the Okataina Volcanic Centre (Fig. 8). Blockage of the
Kawerau canyon by Rotoiti pyroclastic flow deposits raised
the level of the intracaldera lake to c. 200 m: simultaneously,
blockage of the outlet to Lake Rotorua caused that lake to rise
to c. 380 m (see below). Exhumation of the Kawerau canyon
lowered the level of the Haroharo caldera lake to its former
level of c. 100 m before initiation of the Mangaone Subgroup
phase of explosive eruptions. The Kawerau Ignimbrite phase
of the 33 ka Mangaone I eruption (Spinks et al. 2004) dammed
the canyon, temporarily raising the intracaldera lake level
to c. 200 m again (Fig. 9). These early highstand lakes may
have been the source of outbreak flood events if their margins
breached rapidly.
Some time between 28 and 26.5 ka, the adjacent 500 km2
Rotorua catchment was temporarily captured by the Haroharo
system when the Rotoiti Ignimbrite barrier between the two
systems was breached in the Tikitere Graben area (Fig. 8B).
The level of intracaldera Lake Rotorua fell by 90-110 m as it
drained into the Haroharo caldera and thence into the Kawerau
canyon (Kennedy et al. 1978; Esler et al. 2002; Marx 2004).
The Rotorua catchment remained captured by the Tarawera
River system until emplacement of the 25 ka Te Rere erup-
tives, or the 9.5 ka Rotoma episode at the latest, combined
with headwater capture, diverted drainage from Rotorua into
the Kaituna River system (Fig. 8C or E).
The post-26.5 ka history of lake impoundment in the Haro-
haro caldera is complex, but a sequence can be inferred from
the ages of the confining lava and pyroclastic flow deposits,
New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 2007, Vol. 50
a 10
supplemented by the sedimentary record (Fig. 8D-H). Lakes
Okareka, Tikitapu, and Rotokakahi were created by emplace-
ment of the Okareka dome complex at 25 and 15.7 ka. Lake
Rotoiti to the north and Lake Okataina to the west were pro-
gressively confined between the caldera rim and lavas of the
Haroharo dome complex emplaced episodically between 25
and 5.5 ka, when Lake Okataina was finally separated from
Lake Tarawera. Lakes Rotoma and Rotoehu were formed by
lava extrusions at 9.5 ka, whereas Lake Rerewhakaaitu was
progressively dammed by pyroclastic flows at 13.8 and 0.7
ka. Lake Rotomahana owes its existence to explosion craters
excavated during the AD 1886 Tarawera eruption. Confine-
ment of Lake Tarawera commenced at 25 ka, with the lake
reaching essentially its modern form following the 5.6 ka
Whakatane eruption episode (Nairn 2002; Hodgson & Nairn
2004).
Post-Waiohau 13.8 ka flood
The 13.8 kaWaiohau eruption episode (Nairn 2002; Speed et
al. 2002) was the first post-26.5 ka event to have a major ef-
fect on drainage from the Haroharo caldera. Emplacement of
a pyroclastic fan extending northeast from the Tarawera area
blocked the outlet to the proto-Lake Tarawera, constraining
overflow at 220 m where this fan abutted the caldera rim
to the northeast. If the Rotorua and Rotoiti/Rotoma/Rotoehu
catchments remained captured by Haroharo at this time, then
the doubled catchment area would have caused rapid lake
filling. Breaching of the fan dam, most likely by overtopping,
cut a 1 km wide and 3 km long channel through the fan toe
Manville et al.—Volcanic floods review 139
and lowered the lake overflow level to 160 m. There are no
exposures of post-Waiohau-age sediment in the Tarawera
River valley, so whether a catastrophic flood took place as a
consequence of this breaching remains unknown (Hodgson
& Nairn 2004).
Post-Mamaku 8 ka flood
Proto-Lake Tarawera was again substantially modified dur-
ing the 8 ka Mamaku eruption episode when lavas extruded
from the Haroharo complex advanced to abut against the
13.8 ka Pokohu lava flow from Tarawera (Fig. 8E). The lake
surface rose to a new outlet level of c. 300 m, but lake level
had fallen below 270 m, and more likely to 210 m, by 5.6
ka (see below), as a result of a catastrophic break-out flood.
Sedimentary evidence for the flood comes from post-Mamaku
bouldery gravels that outcrop along the Tarawera River val- Fig. 10 Oblique aerial photograph of the outlet to Lake Tarawera
ley and incorporate both 13.8 and 8 ka material (Hodgson looking west. X—Y is the line of schematic cross-sections shown in
Fig. 11. (Photo: D. L. Homer)
& Nairn 2004).

post-whakatane 5.6 ka sedimentation

Following the post-Mamaku 8 ka events, the next modifica-
tion to Lake Tarawera accompanied the 5.6 ka Whakatane
eruption episode (Kobayashi et al. 2005). Trees in vertical
growth positions occur at 30 m depth (c. 270 m elevation)
in Lake Tarawera (Nairn 1981) and are radiocarbon dated
as associated with this eruption. They are inferred to have
been drowned when the lake surface level rapidly rose from
below 270 m to a terrace-marked highstand level of 330 m
as a consequence of eruptive activity. The post-Mamaku, low
elevation (c. 210 m) outlet to Lake Tarawera was dammed by
emplacement of the Tapahoro lavas (Fig. 10) while a block-
and-ash flow fan extended southeast from the leading edge
of the Tapahoro lava flows to abut the 13.8 ka Pokohu lava
flow (Fig. 11 A). Early Whakatane tephra fall beds overlying
Pokohu lava flow surfaces are subaerial at 320 m, but later
beds are intercalated with lacustrine sediments, indicating
inundation towards the end of the Whakatane eruption episode
(Hodgson & Nairn 2005). After a prolonged stillstand marked
by development of extensive post-Whakatane terraces on the
western shore, lake level fell to c. 315 m prior to the 0.7 ka
Kaharoa eruption, presumably by slow incision of a narrow
channel through the indurated fan toe (Fig. 11B). Exclusion
of the Rotorua catchment by growth of Rotoma lava domes at
9.5 ka may have been a factor in overtopping outflows being
insufficient to trigger catastrophic downcutting. Volcaniclastic
aggradation in the Tarawera valley below the Tapahoro dam
filled the river channel to the caldera rim as a result of rework-
ing of thick Whakatane episode pyroclastic fans.

Fig. 11A,B Schematic cross-

sections of the Lake Tarawera
outlet area. A, Following the 5.6
ka Whakatane eruption episode, the
narrow post-Whakatane channel
through the fan toes was blocked
by the 0.7 ka Kaharoa eruption. B,
At the present day, after removal of
the 5.6 ka pyroclastic fanby the syn-
Kaharoa 0.7 ka break-out flood.

NW
140 New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 2007, Vol. 50
Syn-Kaharoa 0.7 ka flood
The 0.7 ka Kaharoa eruption episode opened with a series
of vent-clearing explosions, followed by plinian eruptions,
pyroclastic flows, and the extrusion of three lava domes that
crown the modern Tarawera massif. A 4—5 yr duration has
been estimated from erupted volumes and comparisons with
historic dome effusion rates (Nairn et al. 2001). The level of
Lake Tarawera appears to have initially fallen to c. 300 m
during the eruption, possibly due to erosion of the outlet
by increased discharges induced by the entry of pyroclastic
flows into the lake. Later rise to 325 m is indicated by water-
sorted silt and sand beds overlying Kaharoa pyroclastics at
this elevation. A highstand level of 330 m is inferred from
the height of flood deposits immediately downstream of
the present outlet (see below), corresponding with the post-
Whakatane lake level and implying blockage of the narrow
post-Whakatane channel through the toe of the Tapahoro fan
dam (Fig. 11 A) by a combination of Kaharoa block-and-ash
flow deposits and remobilised pyroclastic deposits issuing
from the 3.5 km2 Tapahoro gully catchment (Hodgson &
Nairn 2004,2005).
As a consequence of the blockage, the lake rose by c. 30 m
before failure of the barrier. The exact cause of breaching is
unknown, but it may have been initiated by overtopping, pip-
ing through the buried pre-eruption channel, or wave-induced
erosion and overtopping caused by tsunami generated by late-
stage block-and-ash flows entering the lake (cf. Waythomas
et al. 1996). Late-stage Kaharoa fall units overlying flood
deposits above a scoured surface indicate that the break-out
Fig. 12 A, Composite low-level vertical airphoto
showing syn-Kaharoa flood features in the middle
Tarawera valley from c. 5 to 11 km downstream of
the modern outlet. Flow direction left to right. B,
View from true right bank of Tarawera River valley
showing syn-Kaharoa flood boulders up to 8 m in
diameter scattered on recessional flood surfaces
7 km downstream of the modern outlet.
occurred before the cessation of the eruption episode. Dam
failure was catastrophic, releasing 1.7 km3 of water as the
lake fell by c. 40 m. The main outflow excavated a 350 m
wide breach in the Tapahoro fan dam (Fig. 1 1B) and scoured
a 300 m wide and 3 km long spillway above the Tarawera
Falls amphitheatre. A southeasterly directed offshoot of flow
deposited gravel in a broad channel across the Pokohu lava
flow and cut a 4 km long gully system through its southeast
margin and into Kaharoa pyroclastics farther downstream
(Fig. 7). The plunge pools, scoured surfaces, abandoned chan-
nels, and streamlined landforms below the Lake Tarawera
outlet are all indicative of a very large magnitude, highly
erosive and competent flood (Baker 1985; Baker & Komar
1987). Below the Tarawera Falls amphitheatre, flood deposits
include giant streamlined lateral, point, and medial barforms
(Fig. 12A) composed of stratified bouldery gravels at least
10 m thick which occur for 10 km downstream of the outlet.
Boulders up to 13 m in diameter lie scattered or clustered on
their surfaces, diminishing in number and size downstream
(Fig. 12B). Boulder lithologies are mostly glassy and spheru-
litic rhyolite lavas and welded rhyolite autobreccia derived
from pre-Kaharoa lava flows exposed below, in, and above
the Tarawera Falls. Between 10 and 25 km downstream,
these deposits are superseded by boulder-bearing cross- and
planar-stratified sandy gravels up to 10 m thick confined
between pre-Kaharoa alluvial fans and terraces. The gravels
form broad, gently downstream sloping benches that are cut
by arcuate recessional terraces. Laminated silts at high levels
on terraces in the main Tarawera River valley and in tributary
Manville et al.—Volcanic floods review 141
streams were interpreted by Hodgson & Nairn (2005) as
slackwater deposits (Baker et al. 1983). Distal flood deposits
averaging 1 m thick resurfaced c. 700 km2 of the Rangitaiki
Plains and advanced the shoreline by c. 2 km (Pullar & Selby
1971; Hodgson & Nairn 2005).
Post-Tarawera AD 1886 flood
The AD 1886 basaltic plinian eruption of Mt Tarawera (Walk-
er et al. 1984) was followed by a reported 12.8 m rise in the
level of Lake Tarawera above its pre-eruption level by AD
1904 (Bell 1906). Heavy rain triggered a break-out flood on
1 November 1904, resulting in a 1 m drop in lake level before
the main flood phase on 3 November peaked at Kawerau,
24 km downstream, at an estimated 700 m3/s (Maclaren
1906). The flood overtopped the normally dry Tarawera Falls
3 km downstream from the lake outlet (Fig. 13), overwhelm-
ing the normal subterranean drainage of the Tarawera River
through fissures that emerge low in the 70 m high cliffed
margin to the Pokohu lava flow. A total lake level drop of
3.35 m was measured in AD 1906, with the lake apparently
stabilising at close to its modern elevation of 298 m. small
post-AD 1886 shoreline terraces around Lake Tarawera 2-3 m
above the current lake level are consistent with this observa-
tion (Hodgson & Nairn 2005). The AD 1904 flood caused
significant downcutting along the main stream of the middle
Tarawera River, triggering a phase of rejuvenation and inci-
sion in tributary streams. This released voluminous quantities
of volcaniclastic debris that aggraded the bed of the Tarawera
River, causing channel avulsion and flooding up to 30 km
downstream.
The AD 1904 flood is attributed to collapse of a low vol-
caniclastic fan composed of remobilised AD 1886 and older Fig. 13 Oblique photograph of the Tarawera Falls during the AD
material extending from the mouth of the Tapahoro gully 1904 flood across the 70 m high margin of the 13.8 ka Pokohu lava
(Fig. 10, 1 1B) that would have blocked the Tarawera River flow. Normal outflow is subterranean, emergingfromfissuresabout
c. 1 km downstream of the lake outlet (White et al. 1997; half-way up the cliff face behind the waterfall on the left. The flood
Hodgson & Nairn 2000,2005). The river now flows through discharge was sufficient to occupy normally dry surface channels
a 10 m wide and c. 6 m deep channel cut through the fan toe (relict from the syn-Kaharoa 0.7 kaflood)and to overtop the amphi-
theatre to the left and right. (Photo: Rotorua archives)
during breaching failure. Elevation of the fan surface at the
river bank is c. 4 m above the mean modern lake level and
consistent with the post-AD 1886 highstand terrace level
around the lake. Timing of fan emplacement is unknown, but 1981, 2002; Hodgson & Nairn 2004). However, infilling of
Lake Tarawera would fill at 5-6 m/yr under normal climatic the Tikitere Graben by emplacement of the 50 ka Rotoiti
conditions. Breccia (Nairn 2002), erupted from the northern Haroharo
caldera, has buried any evidence of this. A V-shaped notch
in the southern caldera rim at the Hemo Gorge suggests the
possibility of an early post-220 ka drainage path towards the
LAKe r o t o r u A south into the ancestral Lake Huka/Waikato River system via
The 20 km diameter Rotorua caldera, formed at 220 ka by the Ngakuru depression in the Kapenga caldera, but outcrop
eruption of the voluminous Mamaku Ignimbrite (Houghton evidence is lacking and the viability of this route is potentially
et al. 1995; Milner et al. 2002), is now partially occupied by a compromised by immediate post-Mamaku eruption of the
shallow lake covering 80 km2 at a surface elevation of 280 m. Ohakuri Ignimbrite (Gravley et al. 2003) and the relatively
Extensive suites of highstand lacustrine terraces and shoreline late-stage subsidence of this area indicated by fault offsets in
benches fringe much of the Rotorua basin (Grange 1937; the Ngakuru Graben (Villamor & Berryman 2001). Eruption
Kennedy et al. 1978; Marx 2004), evidence of a complex of the Earthquake Flat Pyroclastics from the Kapenga caldera
history of lake level oscillations influenced by volcanic and just after the 50 ka Rotoiti eruption would have blocked this
tectonic activity at the adjacent Okataina and Kapenga Vol- alternative drainage path to the south.
canic Centres (Nairn 1981, 2002). The highest, tectonically In the aftermath of the 50 ka Rotoiti eruption, the level of
tilted lacustrine terrace (387-414 m elevation) corresponds Lake Rotorua rose to 370-380 m, enabling a broad highstand
to a post-220 ka highstand level associated with filling of the terrace to develop around much of the basin (Fig. 14). This
newly created basin in the aftermath of the Mamaku Ignim- implies either a single, long-duration highstand controlled
brite eruption (Marx 2004). The direction of overflow of this by a hard-rock sill outside an actively subsiding area, or a
lake is unknown. Development of a pre-50 ka northeasterly number of highstand cycles related to volcano-tectonic ac-
outlet via the tectonically subsiding Tikitere Graben (Fig. 7) tivity (see below). The location of the potential overflow sill
and thence northwards to the coast is usually assumed (Nairn is uncertain: Grange (1937) hypothesised that it lay 1.5 km
 New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 2007, Vol. 50
Calibrated aqe (ka)
Fig. 14 Time-line illustrating changes in the elevation of Lake Rotorua together with significant volcanic eruptions. Note change in
time-scale at 60 ka. Shaded stars are probable break-out floods; hollow stars are possible (after Kennedy et al. 1978; Marx 2004).
west of the Mourea area, where a lake at 370 m would pres-
ently overflow into the Hururu Stream headwaters to join the
Kaituna River 8 km downstream (Nairn 1981, 2002). Nairn
(1981,2002) also suggested some drainage via subterranean
routes into the north-flowing Kaituna River. More recent
work (Marx 2004) implicates the Tikitere Graben, requiring
either the balancing of continuous volcano-tectonic subsid-
ence with episodic pyroclastic aggradation to maintain an
effective barrier, or that the majority of downfaulting has
accompanied adjacent caldera collapse with long intervening
periods of relative stasis. Drainage to the south via the Hemo
Gorge is unlikely given emplacement of the Earthquake Flat
Pyroclastics shortly after the Rotoiti eruption (Nairn 1971).
The duration of this highstand period is also uncertain.
Speculation that the level of Lake Rotorua fluctuated between
its rise post-50 ka and its ultimate 90-110 m fall, bracketed
by the 28 ka Poihipi and 26.5 ka Oruanui eruptions from the
Taupo Volcanic Centre (Dravitzki 1999; Esler et al. 2002;
Marx 2004), requires either multiple dam-forming events in
the Tikitere Graben (Marx 2004) or a complex interplay be-
tween volcanism, tectonism, and subterranean drainage paths
(Esler et al. 2002). The post-28 ka fall may have resulted from
arrival at the rim of Lake Rotorua of a headward-retreating
gully, initiated at the edge of the Haroharo caldera margin,
which had cut back through the Rotoiti Ignimbrite fill in the
Tikitere Graben over the intervening c. 27 ka. Alternatively,
breaching could have resulted from accelerated overtopping
flow due to a downfaulting event in the Tikitere Graben.
The corresponding release of c. 10 km3 of water apparently
scoured the c. 1 km wide, 60 m deep channel seen in the
bathymetry of the western arm of Lake Rotoiti (Nairn 1981;
Pickrill 1993). This drowned valley is much larger than that
occupied by the Kaituna River, and must have been formed
by a catastrophic flood as Lake Rotorua drained into the Haro-
haro caldera. While the peak discharge of this flow will have
been attenuated by ponding in the Haroharo caldera, it likely
contributed to erosion of the Kawerau canyon downstream
of the Haroharo caldera rim. Sedimentary evidence of this
flood has been obscured by continued tectonic subsidence
and aggradation of the Tikitere Graben and Rangitaiki Plains
(Pullar & Selby 1971; Pullar 1985; Nairn & Beanland 1989)
and volcanism in the Haroharo caldera (Nairn 2002).
Growth of the post-25 ka Haroharo dome complex pro-
gressively restricted outflow from the Rotorua catchment,
forming first Lake Rotoiti and then Rotoehu and Rotoma
until the level of Lake Rotoiti surpassed 294 m, enabling it to
overflow the basin rim to the north into the Kaituna River at
Okere at c. 9.5 ka (Nairn 2002; Hodgson & Nairn 2005). Sub-
sequent tectonic subsidence of the Tikitere Graben averaging
c. 2 mm/yr has lowered the level of Lake Rotorua to 280 m
(Fig. 14). Therefore, there have been at least three progres-
sively lower highstands of Lake Rotorua since its formation at
220 ka, but sedimentary evidence of catastrophic break-outs
is lacking, due to rapid landscape modification and burial by
later volcanic activity.
c r A t e r LAKe, r u A p e h u
Mt Ruapehu lies at the southern end of the Taupo Volcanic
Zone and is New Zealand's largest and most active onshore
andesitic volcano. This 100 km3 composite cone rises to
Manville et al.—Volcanic floods review
2797 m above sea level and is surrounded by a volumetrically
equivalent ring plain composed of distal pyroclastic fall and
laharic and fluvial deposits (Houghton et al. 1987; Palmer
et al. 1993). Historic activity has consisted of very frequent,
relatively small (VEI 1-3) phreatic, phreatomagmatic, and
magmatic eruptions (Healy et al. 1978; Nairn et al. 1979),
with the two largest eruption sequences occurring in 1945
(Oliver 1945; Reed 1945; Beck 1950) and 1995/96 (Bryan et
al. 1996; Johnston et al. 2000). The active southern crater is
normally occupied by a hot, acidic crater lake (Christenson
& Wood 1993), overflowing at an elevation of 2530 m, and
with a volume of 9 × 106m3. The lake has existed for most
of the last 2000 yr, based on the record of phreatomagmatic
eruptions recorded by the Tufa Trig Formation on the eastern
ring plain (Cronin & Neall 1997; Donoghue et al. 1997) and
the intercalated sequence of laharic deposits forming the
Onetapu Formation along the Whangaehu River which drains
the lake (Hodgson 1993; Lecointre et al. 2004). Clast assem-
blages in the lahar deposits permit reconstruction of the link
between eruption style and lahar production. Lahar triggering
mechanisms include: (1) flank collapses of hydrothermally
altered and unstable portions of the cone; (2) phreatic and
phreatomagmatic eruptions that generate snow-rich slurries
and hyperconcentrated stream flows; (3) rain-triggered re-
mobilised tephra lahars; and (4) significantly, in terms of this
paper, sudden collapses of parts of the crater rim (Lecointre
et al. 2004). Two lahars in the past 2000 yr have had volumes
of 4 × 107m3, one of which crossed an interfluve to enter a
tributary of the north-flowing Tongariro River sometime after
AD 1400-1660 (Lecointre et al. 2004).
Following expulsion of Crater Lake during the 1945 erup-
tion sequence (Oliver 1945; Reed 1945; Beck 1950), the lake
refilled behind a barrier of 1945 tephra and lava over the
previous outlet channel, buttressed by the then extant Crater
Basin Glacier. On Christmas Eve 1953, the barrier failed by
piping, releasing c. 1.8 × 106m3 of water as the lake fell by
7.9 m (O'Shea 1954; Stilwell et al. 1954). The initial dilute
flood rapidly bulked through entrainment of particulate ma-
terial from the channel and banks of the Whangaehu River,
to form a debris flow with a peak discharge of 2000 m3/s,
before rapid attenuation due to debulking and absorption of
water into the substrate on the low gradient Whangaehu Fan
reduced this by c. 60% (Manville 2004). The crest of the lahar
reached the Tangiwai Railway Bridge 39 km downstream,
2.1-2.3 h after the onset of breaching as a debris flow to
hyperconcentrated flow, carrying away part of the bridge and
resulting in the Wellington-Auckland express train falling into
the river with the loss of 151 lives. Earlier historical floods
in the Whangaehu River, including one in January 1925 that
was accompanied by a drop in the level of Crater Lake and
scouring of the Whangaehu River bed at Tangiwai (O'Shea
1954; Stilwell et al. 1954), and the AD 1861 lahar (Taylor
1861; Crawford 1870; Cronin et al. 1997), may have resulted
from partial collapse of the Crater Lake rim.
The 1995/96 eruption sequence again expelled Crater Lake,
and deposited c. 7 m of unconsolidated tephra across the rock
rim forming the pre-existing outlet. Subsequent refilling of
the lake raised the possibility of failure of this tephra dam and
a lake break-out flood/lahar as much as 50-70% larger than
in 1953 (Hancox et al. 2001). On 18 March 2007, the rising
Crater Lake breached the tephra dam, releasing c. 1.3 × 106
m3 of water in <2 h. The flood bulked up through entrainment
of snow, ice, colluvium, and older lahar deposits in the Whan-
gaehu Gorge to form a lahar estimated to be c. 25% larger than
143
the 1953 Tangiwai event. Long-term planning by scientific
and other response agencies including GNS Science, Massey
University, the Department of Conservation, and Horizons
Regional Council has captured a wealth of time-series data
on this event at multiple sites downstream, making it the best
monitored volcanogenic flood and lahar in the world.
pALeohYdrAuLIc AnALYSIS oF LAKe BreAK-
OUT FLoodS
Identification of a past flood event from geomorphic and
sedimentological indicators gives only limited information on
some key flood parameters of use to emergency planners such
as flow depth, velocity, and discharge. Paleohydraulic analysis
attempts to determine values for these from downstream field
evidence such as stage-level indicators, deposit sedimentol-
ogy, and channel geometry (e.g., O'Connor & Webb 1988).
Alternatively, as is the case with break-out floods, the outflow
hydrograph is estimated from impoundment parameters in-
cluding lake volume released, fall in lake level, and breach
geometry and growth rate (Walder & O'Connor 1997).
Estimation of the potential flood hydrograph from a dam-
breach is complicated by its dependence on four interrelated
factors: lake volume, dam height (or lake level drop), average
breach width, and breach development time. Techniques de-
veloped to assess the magnitude of potential dambreak floods
from a range of natural and artificial dams include empirical
regression relationships, dimensional analysis, parametric
models, and physically based dam erosion models (Manville
2001b). Regression relationships typically take a power-law
form with empirically derived coefficients that seek to link
observed values of peak discharge and some dimensional
characteristic(s) of the lake, dam, or breach (Johnson & Illes
1976; MacDonald & Langridge-Monopolis 1984; Costa
1988; Walder & O'Connor 1997). However, utility of the
method is limited by scatter in the base data, differences in
the way they were collected, and an absence of any simple
or direct linkage between parameters of lake, dam or breach
size, and peak outflow rate. Dimensional analysis assumes
that the fundamental physical mechanisms are the same for
all dambreak flood events, so that the dimensionless peak
discharge is primarily a function of dimensionless spilled lake
volume and the dimensionless breach erosion rate (Walder
& O'Connor 1997). The last two factors are most critical as
these govern whether or not substantial drawdown of the
lake occurs before the breach has reached its maximum size.
Parametric methods apply open-channel weir flow equations
to determine outflow from breach dimensions and geometry
(Chow 1959; Price et al. 1977); these may be automated
in a time-stepping numerical model that balances outflow
through an enlarging breach against reservoir drawdown
(Manville 2001b). Physically based breach erosion models
couple sediment-transport models with weir flow equations to
estimate the rate of breach erosion for an iteratively calculated
discharge (Ponce & Tsivoglou 1981; Fread 1996; Coleman
& Andrews 2000).
Although paleohydraulic analysis of breach development
can give information about the maximum potential peak
discharge at the outlet, actual evidence of high-magnitude
discharges is better obtained from farther downstream due
to complications arising from channel conveyancing and
back-water effects. The existence of established relationships
between hydraulic flow parameters (i.e., velocity, shear stress,
144 New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 2007, Vol. 50
stream power) and the maximum size of particles that can

n 2 21
be transported (Costa 1983; Komar 1989; O'Connor 1993)
permit local discharges to be estimated. Such regression
relationships are most likely to be appropriate where deri-
o vation is constrained by estimates of local flow conditions
.SP
PH
l! o en
independently obtained from step-backwater models (see
below). In combination with estimates of flow cross-section
g
from channel geometry and stage level markers (where pres-
ent), discharge can be derived from such velocity estimates.
g Step-backwater analysis is based on the principle of con-
g Si o servation of mass and energy in a steady, gradually varying
-a o
o 00 flow. In paleohydrologic applications, a series of flow cross-
is sections defined by channel geometry and paleostage height
indicators can be used to calculate an energy-balanced water-
b surface profile that is a function of discharge, flow resistance,
ogoooogo
O O O O O O N and channel geometry (O'Connor & Webb 1988). Calculated
'S profiles are iteratively fitted to the geologic data to estimate
peak discharge at various points along the flow path. However,
.3 ^|of the method is very sensitive to channel geometry, including
cross-section stability (i.e., no erosion or deposition during
the flood) and spacing, and the presence and size of areas
1
•3
"I gggggg
O OOOO O
of ineffective flow such as channel embayments and flood
plains. Hydraulic jumps arising from rapidly varying flow
o\ >n ^°
conditions (e.g., along steep irregular channels), can cause
numerical instabilities in the model, while the key assumption
of steady, slowly varying flow is often untenable for dambreak
oooooocs^o floods, which are characterised by a steep rising limb. The
O O O O O O ^ H O
KIhOOOO
technique has, however, been successfully applied to bedrock
en »© ^ ^ »©
^f en en gorge-confined reaches of paleofloods, such as the Missoula
(O'Connor & Baker 1992) and Bonneville (O'Connor 1993)
.2
events.

Reconstructions of volcanogenic floods in New Zealand

X Ifi O
•* f> vo oo
H
The lake break-out floods we have reported here and else-
where are well suited to paleohydraulic analysis. Fieldwork
has yielded information on the location and geometry of
former dams, pre- and post-break-out lake levels, and down-
.3
> o oo stream flood features including channel cross-sections, water
> CN O surface slopes, and dimensions of transported flood boulders.
V) CO O *3" O\
N
i CO V) CO (N i—• Using the techniques outlined above, paleohydraulic recon-
structions have been carried out on a number of volcanic and
volcanogenic lake break-out floods in New Zealand (Manville
et al. 1999; Hodgson & Nairn 2005), and are summarised in

•3
00 CO O\ 00 00 •
A A A
islSf Table 1.
Flood volume and lake-level fall were determined from
mapping of highstand and lowstand terrace elevations and
basin geometry. Elevation errors arising from post-terrace
1 in oo w development tectonic movements and burial by younger de-
f) iH iH
i-J O O posits generally exceed measurement errors from handheld
I GPS (±2 m), calibrated barometer (±0.5 m), or differential
GPS (±0.02 m). Peak discharge calculations were based on di-
mensional analysis, used representative parameters of breach
width/depth ratio, r = 3 and lake side-wall slope, m = 2.5, and
,J. vertical breach erosion rates, k, of 1,10 and 100 m/h (Walder
& O'Connor 1997). These calculations show that for some
o o o o o ^9 9 lakes, peak discharge is almost independent of breach de-
I OH OH OH OH OH 05 < . < . velopment time because of the very large surface area of the
I highstand lake (e.g., the post-26.5 ka and post-1.8 ka floods

I
Pi
from Lake Taupo). Other, smaller water bodies show more
sensitivity, so a mid-range breach erosion rate of 10 m/h was
used in Fig. 14. For comparison purposes, peak discharge was
also calculated for k values of 1 and 100 m/h using an auto-
mated broad-crested weir flow equation spreadsheet (Man-
1 M rl 1 1 1 o ville 2001b) and estimated breach dimensions with similar
Manville et al.—Volcanic floods review
Fig. 15 Plot of log of peak outlet WHOW
discharge versus log of clearwater
flood volume for break-out floods
from New Zealand and selected
overseas intracaldera and crater DtftU-terMm
lakes, based on dimensional
analysis assuming a 10 m/h vertical
breach erosion rate. Comparisons
with floods from other natural and
artificial lake impoundments show lHDH
that only late Pleistocene events
from continental ice-sheet dammed
and pluvial lakes are larger (data 140W
from Costa 1985; O'Connor et
al. 2002).
ram
I +
5 .
&•
results. Downstream discharge estimates are also presented
where independently calculated, using channel geometry and
the boulder flow-competence relation of O'Connor (1993).
These are typically much lower than the maximum estimated
at the breach due to flood-wave attenuation and other channel
conveyance effects.
dIScuSSIon
One of the simplest definitions of a flood is simply "too
much water" (Wolman in O'Connor et al. 2002). However,
the actual magnitude of a flood reflects both the characteris-
tic volume and release rates of the water source, whether it
be an atmospheric (weather system) or terrestrial reservoir
(lakes, snow and ice), and the physiographic properties of
the landscape that receives it (O'Connor et al. 2002). Large
meteorological floods require that precipitation and run-off be
integrated across a wide geographical area over what may be
a substantial period of time, and even large weather systems
like hurricanes only release c. 50 km3 of precipitation over
many thousands of square kilometres (O'Connor et al. 2002).
In contrast, large-scale terrestrial impoundments of water (i.e.,
lakes) are an effective source of major floods because they
can release huge volumes of water directly into a drainage
route should their margins be breached. Volcanic lakes are a
particularly efficient source of such events as water bodies
in volcanic environments are often relatively short-lived
features, being prone to rapid formation, modification, and
destruction by both primary volcanic processes and the sec-
ondary effects of post-eruptive landscape re-adjustment (e.g.,
erosion, sedimentation, tectonic uplift and/or subsidence).
Breaches of the barriers of these lakes can produce break-out
floods that have catastrophic effects on the landscape over
which the flood waters pass. Lake break-out floods at Lakes
Taupo and Tarawera were able to effect large-scale erosion
and create large-scale sedimentary landforms comparable to
145
y-au
OtMTKft
\-*m Imw K S I J? S K»
fa P
h in N
••
I +
s1"
1H lnnw MJAUUJ "JULUJJC
1
\* Iff pi ]
features attributed to catastrophic break-out floods along the
margins of the Laurentide and Cordilleran icesheets in North
America and ice domes and valley glaciers in central Asia
during the late Pleistocene (Baker 2002; Herget 2005).
Modification of the landscape by volcanic activity and the
subsequent (re)filling of lakes can result in drainage systems
developing in new areas through relocation of the lowest point
in the basin margin, as occurred at Lake Taupo following
the 26.5 ka Oruanui eruption (Fig. 2), and possibly at Lake
Rotorua after the 50 ka Rotoiti episode (Fig. 8). Overtopping
and breaching of the caldera/catchment rim can then entrench
the outlet stream in a wholly new course, which, if narrow,
is vulnerable to blockage by subsequent volcanic activity, as
at Lakes Taupo and Tarawera.
A plot of peak outlet discharge versus volume of lake water
released shows that break-out floods from intracaldera lakes
are amongst the largest known floods on Earth (Fig. 15), only
being exceeded by late Pleistocene glacial and pluvial lake
outbursts and continental-scale meteorological events such as
Missoula and Bonneville (Baker 2002; O'Connor et al. 2002).
Break-outs from other volcanogenic impoundments such as
valleys dammed by pyroclastic flows, lava flows, or debris
avalanches are comparable with floods from the breaching of
other types of natural dam such as landslides and moraines
(Costa & Schuster 1988; Schuster 2000). Jökulhlaups (e.g.,
Björnsson 1975; Tómasson 2002), although influenced by
subglacial volcanism as a mechanism for melting ice, are
functionally a class of glacier lake break-out because the out-
flow mechanism is controlled by the glacier, not the volcano
(Walder & Costa 1996; Clarke 2003).
Small scale, historical lake break-out floods at Lake
Tarawera in AD 1904 and Crater Lake, Ruapehu, in AD 1953
and 2007, illustrate the hazards these phenomena present to
life and property. Mitigation is hampered by the unpredict-
able timing of overtopping and/or failure, and there is no
discernible pattern in the floods reported here. However,
the delay between the cessation of volcanic activity and the
146 New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 2007, Vol. 50
filling of volcanic lakes provides a window of opportunity
for engineering intervention to reduce (Bornas et al. 2003;
Newhall et al. 2003) or prevent (Meyer et al 1986; Umbal
& Rodolfo 1996) volcanogenic floods. In New Zealand, in-
digenous and conservation values precluded intervention at
Ruapehu's Crater Lake, but a bund was constructed farther
downstream to prevent a large lahar overspilling into streams
that would drain north into Lake Taupo, potentially impacting
on a valuable trout fishery and hydroelectric generation.
concLuSIonS
intracaldera lake break-out floods, including multiple events
from a single source, have been identified from three of the
nine known caldera volcanoes in the Taupo Volcanic Zone,
including both currently active volcanic centres, Taupo and
Okataina. Lacustrine sediments are also associated with
older caldera structures including Mangakino, Kapenga,
Whakamaru, Reporoa, and Ohakuri (Houghton et al. 1995),
whereas Haroharo and Rotorua calderas show evidence of
highstand lakes dating back to their formation at 280 and 220
ka, respectively (Esler et al. 2002; Milner et al. 2002; Nairn
2002; Marx 2004), raising the possibility that break-out floods
also occurred from these centres in the past, although the
evidence is largely obscured. Volcanogenic lake break-outs
also probably followed the damming of valleys by volumi-
nous pyroclastic flows from these caldera-forming eruptions:
candidates include the lakes developed in the Reporoa basin
following the 1.8 and 26.5 ka eruptions of Taupo (Pain &
Pullar 1975; Manville 2001a; Manville & Wilson 2004), and
those dammed along the lower courses of the Mohaka, Ngaru-
roro, and Waikato Rivers by distal laharic deposits (Lowe &
Green 1992; Segschneider et al. 2002a,b).
Combinations of geologic, climatic, and physiographic
factors make some areas of the Earth more flood-prone than
others. Based on evidence from the Taupo Volcanic Zone,
volcanic regions constitute an under-appreciated source of
megafloods. Further research in volcanic zones around the
world is likely to discover more examples of these events.
AcKnowLedGMentS
research for this study developed out of the Catastrophic Flooding
and Lahars programme founded by B. F. Houghton, C. J. N. Wilson
and J. D. L. White. Funding was provided by the Foundation for
Research, Science and Technology, New Zealand, under contracts
C05516 and C0005X6 to Manville, and contracts CO5430 and
IAN801 to Hodgson and Nairn. Work in the Tarawera area was
supported by Fletcher Challenge Forests, Environment Bay of Plenty,
the Department of Conservation, and the Ruawahia 2B Trust. The
manuscript benefited from reviews by J. D. L. White, R. M. Briggs,
and J. E. O'Connor.
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