FINAL DRAFT OF ARMENIA LEAST COST ENERGY

DEVELOPMENT PLAN: 2024 - 2050

MARKET LIBERALIZATION AND

ELECTRICITY TRADE PROGRAM
Yerevan, Armenia
December, 2022
ARMENIA LEAST COST ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PLAN
Armenia updated LCEDP includes years 2024-2050 with the base
Previous Armenia LCEDP was developed in 2019 year 2019 considering technical and socioeconomic factors,
and includes years 2020-2036. providing decision makers with vital information to develop
Armenia’s energy sector strategic program and action plan.

BASELINE SCENARIO

ECONOMY GROWTH RATE

NATURAL GAS PRICE

NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT

21 POLICY SCENARIOS
ENERGY EFFICIENCY

GHG EMISSIONS

GEORGIA ELECTRICITY IMPORT/EXPORT

2
 BASELINE SCENARIO

4/23/2023
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE BASELINE SCENARIO

GDP Population Useful energy demand Fuel price

Average annual growth: Fuel price projections

Growth rate: Growth rate: are based on the IEA
4.2% in 2024, -0.2 % during the forecast of prices for
Residential 2.2% Commercial 2.7%
4.0% until 2050 planning horizon the EU in the “World
Agriculture 0.52% Industrial 3.8% Energy Outlook 2021”

Import and Export Losses Total technical upper limits Nuclear Other

Solar : - 1,000 MW in 2030

Electricity export to - 2,300 MW in 2040
Georgia is considered in Electricity losses in - no limits after 2040
separate scenarios the Transmission Power plants
Wind: - 500 MW in 2040 generation licenses are
and Distribution ANPP lifetime
networks will - no new capacity after 2040 introduced to the
All other electricity extension
decrease: Small HPP: - 439 MW in 2050 model as “Forced to
exports are assumed to through 2026
Choose” starting from
remain constant for the 8.4% in 2024-2027,
Hydro Pumped Storage: the year of operation
planning horizon at the 8.1% in 2030-2050 - 811 MW in 2050
level of 2021
Thermal: - no new fossil generation
4
TPES AND FEC PROJECTION IN BASELINE SCENARIO, KTOE

Growth by 2050
TOTAL PRIMARY 5,233
34 %
ENERGY Average annual growth
SUPPLY 3,893 1.4 %
(TPES)

2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050

Growth by 2050 4,193

51 %
Average annual growth
FINAL ENERGY 2%
CONSUMPTION 2,784
(FEC)
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050

5
CAPACITY AND GENERATION IN BASELINE SCENARIO
GENERATION BY POWER
CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
6,000 MW PLANT
Wind
Total system cost։ $67․8 billion 5.8%
Power system investment։ $12․9 billion 376 Solar
5,000 19%
STORAGE
Energy independence 2050։ 38 % 130
Gas-fired
WIND 413 47%
8,734
4,000 GWh

194 2,630 Hydro

8
29%
3,000 418 SOLAR
1,501 2030
1,031
440
600 NUCLEAR Gas-
Wind
2,000 7% fired
600 Storage
0.2% Hydro
1,404 1,404 3%
13%
HYDRO
1,404
1,000
GAS FIRED 1,545 13,472
963 963 GWh Nuclear
Solar
496 34%
42%
-
2024 2030 2040 2050 2050
6
 FEC BY FUEL IN BASELINE SCENARIO, KTOE GHG EMISSIONS (CO2EQ) FOR BASELINE SCENARIO, BY SECTOR, KT
5,000 7,789 7,961
4,201 7,614 7,491
8,000
3,714 3,891 6,962
4,000 3,600 3,592 6,637
3,388 7,000 6,191 6,320
3,025 3,210
6,000
3,000
5,000
2,000 4,000
3,000
1,000
2,000
- 1,000
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
Renewables 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 0
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
Oil Products 437 447 457 470 485 511 556 611
Transport 2,125 2,139 2,158 2,179 2,215 2,303 2,534 2,827
LT Heat 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Supply 490 628 644 498 527 554 596 630
Natural Gas 1,923 2,463 2,525 1,954 2,066 2,172 2,337 2,472
Residential 1,664 1,743 1,815 1,879 1,939 2,016 2,114 2,155
Coal 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5
Power Sector 565 1,658 1,620 104 180 154 137 19
Biofuels 80 80 83 88 89 90 92 77
Industry 583 647 711 774 841 929 1,010 1,119
Biofuel and fossil fuel blends 10 15 21 28 36 49 68 93
Commercial 712 748 791 837 886 957 1,051 1,163
Electricity 563 583 615 658 700 758 824 935
Agriculture 52 51 50 49 49 49 49 49
Total 3,025 3,600 3,714 3,210 3,388 3,592 3,891 4,201
Total 6,191 7,614 7,789 6,320 6,637 6,962 7,491 7,961

3,000 2,463 2,525 2,472

2,172 2,337
1,923 1,954 2,066
2,000

FEC BY SECTOR FOR 1,000

NATURAL GAS
IN BASELINE 0
SCENARIO, KTOE 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
Power Sector 240 705 689 44 77 66 58 8
Industry 223 249 274 300 326 361 394 439
Transport 472 474 478 481 488 509 568 646
Residential 695 729 759 786 811 843 885 902
Commercial 292 307 324 344 364 393 432 478
Total 1,923 2,463 2,525 1,954 2,066 2,172 2,337 2,472
7
POLICY SCENARIOS FOR ARMENIA LCEDP 2024-2050:
ECONOMY GROWTH RATE SCENARIO
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ECONOMY GROWTH RATE SCENARIO

GDP GROWTH RATES DEVELOPMENT IN INDUSTRY

Increased demand in Energy efficiency in

Low growth High growth industry industry

Conservative development in
GDP growth: GDP growth: Electricity demand in
EE
industry sector increases
2% annually 6% annually in industry sector
by 200 MW in 2027

NO NEW FOSSIL GENERATION

9
LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
GENERATION BY
TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
7,000 MW POWER PLANT
Total system cost։ $57.5 billion
Wind
Difference with Baseline 6,000 Power system investment։ $9.9 billion Solar 6.2%
Scenario in 2050 Energy independence 2050։ 31 %
TPES

20%
-35 % 467
STORAGE Gas-
5,233 195 fired
5,000
8,284 44%
3,893
504 GWh
3,414
4,000 65 Hydro
3,828 30%
WIND
194
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
8 3,657 2030
Low growth Baseline 3,000 418 2,165
1,031
440 NUCLEAR Wind Gas-fired
SOLAR
Difference with Baseline 10.2% 0.1% Hydro
Storage
Scenario in 2050 2,000 13%
6%
FEC

-26 % 4,193 1,404 1,404 HYDRO

1,479
1,000 12,100
3,127 GAS FIRED
2,784 1,479 GWh
963 963
496 Solar
2,730
- 70% 2050
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 2024 2030 2040 2050
10
HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT GENERATION BY
7,000 MW POWER PLANT
7,454
Difference with Baseline Total system cost: $80.7 billion Storage
Wind
Scenario in 2050 64 3%
6,000 Power system investment: $16.6 billion 0.05%
42 %
STORAGE 195 Solar
TPES

Energy independence 2050: 40 %

16%
Gas-
5,000 fired
5,233 9,250 54%
3,959 GWh
WIND
101 3,176 Hydro
3,893 4,000 65
27%
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
1,129 SOLAR
8 101 2030
High growth Baseline
3,000 418
931 Wind Gas-
5,722
Difference with Baseline 440 1,080 NUCLEAR Storage 0.9% fired
Scenario in 2050 3% 0.2% Hydro
2,000 7%
36 % 1,080
FEC

1,404 1,404
4,193 HYDRO
1,404 17,225
2,840
1,000 Solar
GAS FIRED 1,545 41% GWh
Nuclear
2,784 963 963 48%
496
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 -
2024 2030 2040 2050 2050 11
INCREASED DEMAND IN INDUSTRY SCENARIO
CAPACITY BY POWER GENERATION BY
TPES AND FEC POWER PLANT
7,000 MW PLANT
Difference with Baseline Total system cost: $69․0 billion Wind
Gas-fired
Scenario in 2050 1.9%
6,000
Power system investment: $12.1 billion 0.2%
15 % Solar
Energy independence 2050: 46 %
TPES

6,027 7% Hydro
16%
5,000
5,233 11,065
3,892
191 GWh
STORAGE 65
WIND
3,893
4,000 81 Nuclear
81
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 486
SOLAR 75% 2030
1,023 1,861
8
Increased demand in industry
3,000 418 Wind
Baseline 1,080 3.4%
Gas-fired
NUCLEAR 0.1%
440 Storage
Difference with Baseline 1,080 1% Hydro
Scenario in 2050 1,080 18%
2,000
4%
FEC

4,356 1,404 1,404

HYDRO Solar
4,193 1,404 14,620
1,000 20% GWh
2,784 GAS FIRED 1,545 Nuclear
963 963 57%
2,784 496
-
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
2024 2030 2040 2050 2050
12
ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRY SCENARIO

TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT GENERATION BY

7,000 MW POWER PLANT
Difference with Baseline Total system cost: $68.4 billion
Wind
Scenario in 2050
6,000 Power system investment: $13.9 billion Solar 5.7%
3%
Energy independence 2050: 38 %
TPES

371 18%
5,413 STORAGE
195 Gas-
5,000
5,233 fired
3,919 409 9,014 48%
WIND
GWh
Hydro
3,893
4,000
65 28%
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
3,047
2030
194 1,773
Energy efficiency in industry
8
Baseline 3,000 418 SOLAR
1,031 Wind Gas-fired
Difference with Baseline
440 Storage 6.8% 0.2%
Scenario in 2050 600 NUCLEAR 5% Hydro
2,000
4% 12%
FEC

600
4,355 1,404 1,404 HYDRO
4,193 1,404 Nuclear
1,000 14,487
2,799 GAS FIRED 1,545 GWh 32%
963 963
2,784
496 Solar
45%
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
- 2050
2024 2030 2040 2050
13
POLICY SCENARIOS FOR ARMENIA LCEDP 2024-2050:
NATURAL GAS PRICE SCENARIOS
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE NATURAL GAS PRICE SCENARIOS
EU Gas Price
Natural gas price will
remain $165/1,000m3 until
2024 and afterward it will
reach the EU prices defined
in the “World Energy Outlook
2021”
Unchanged Gas Price Extreme Gas Price
Natural gas price assumed
equal to the EU gas prices
Natural gas price will
remain $165/1,000m3 up to in spring 2022 ($1,000
/1,000m3) from 2024 to
2033 then the price will be
equal to what is considered 2033 with no natural gas
supply afterwards
in the Baseline scenario
NO NEW FOSSIL
GENERATION
15
EU GAS PRICE SCENARIO
GENERATION BY
TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
8,000 MW POWER PLANT
Difference with Total system cost: $66.5 billion Wind
5,233
Baseline Scenario 7,000 Power system investment: $7.4 billion Solar 5.8%
in 2050 19%
Energy independence 2050: 20 %
TPES

504
-21 %
STORAGE
4,676 6,000 65
3,893
8,749
3,894 GWh
5,000
WIND Hydro
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
504 28%
Gas-fired
47%
EU Gas Price Baseline 3,751
4,000
4,206 194 2030
SOLAR
No significant change 8 1,988 Wind
4,193
3,000 1,031 10%
compared with 418 Storage
Baseline Scenario 440 NUCLEAR 2% Gas-fired
24%
FEC

2,000 HYDRO
1,404
1,404 1,404 1,470
12,925
2,786 GWh
1,000 GAS FIRED
Hydro
2,784 1,213 996 992 Solar 17%
963 47%
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
-
2024 2030 2040 2050
2050
16
UNCHANGED GAS PRICE SCENARIO
GENERATION BY
TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
7,000 MW POWER PLANT
Total system cost: $65.8 billion Wind
Difference with
Baseline Scenario 6,000 Power system investment: $13.1 billion Solar 5.8%
5,233
Energy independence 2050: 39 %
TPES

in 2050 GEOTERMAL 25 9%
1% 5,269
467 Gas-fired
STORAGE
3,893 5,000 25 195 57%
8,773
WIND 504 GWh
3,899
130
4,000 Hydro
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 28%
Unchanged Gas Price Baseline 2,841
8
2030
2,240
4,205 3,000 418 194
No significant change SOLAR Gas-fired
compared with 4,193 440 486 0.2% Geothermal
Wind 0.5%
Baseline Scenario
NUCLEAR 8.8%
2,000
FEC

600 Hydro
1,404 1,404 HYDRO Storage 13%
5%
1,545
1,000 GAS 1,545 14,042
2,790
FIRED Solar GWh
963 963 40%
Nuclear
2,784 496 33%
-
2050
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
2024 2030 2040 2050
17
EXTREME GAS PRICE SCENARIO

Switch from natural gas to electricity, blends of

biofuel with fossil fuel, as well as oil products

EXTREME GAS Increase in NPP and RES generation capacity to fill

PRICE the gap in generation from gas-fired power plants

Increase transmission and distribution grid capacity

to transfer increased electricity generation

The scenario will require Armenia to take a different approach, including development
of the new policy and regulatory environment allowing Armenia to switch from natural
gas to electricity in all sectors of the economy. Also, expansion of the power grid and
support schemes for implementation of renewable energy and energy efficiency.
18
POLICY SCENARIOS FOR ARMENIA LCEDP 2024-2050:
NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO

ANPP 2032 ANPP 2037 ANPP 2037 and ANPP 2026 and ANPP 2037 and
two SMR-300 one SMR-300 one SMR-300

ANPP’s lifetime ANPP’s lifetime ANPP’s lifetime

extension by 2037 extension by 2026 extension by 2037
and and and
ANPP’s lifetime ANPP’s lifetime
extension by 2032 extension by 2037 Two SMR-300 One SMR-300 One SMR-300
commissioning in commissioning in commissioning in
2037 and 2045 2036 2037

NO NEW FOSSIL GENERATION

20
ANPP 2032 SCENARIO
GENERATION BY
TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
7,000 MW POWER PLANT
Total system cost: $67․0 billion Wind Gas-fired
No significant
6,000
Power system investment: $12.7 billion Solar 5.8% 11%
TPES

change compared 5,242 17%

with Baseline
Energy independence 2050: 38 %
Scenario in 2050 5,233
376 Hydro
5,000 STORAGE
130 8,804 28%
3,893
GWh
414 Nuclear
4,000 WIND 38%
194
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050

ANPP 2032 Baseline 8 SOLAR

1,495
2,771
Gas-fired
2030
940
3,000 418 Wind 0.2%
7%
440 440 Storage Hydro
4,194
No significant 13%
600 NUCLEAR 3%
FEC

change compared 4,193 2,000

600
with Baseline 1,404 1,404 HYDRO
Scenario
1,404 13,608
1,000 GWh
2,784 GAS FIRED Nuclear
1,545 Solar
963 963 42%
34%
496
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
-
2024 2030 2040 2050 2050
21
ANPP 2037 SCENARIO
GENERATION BY
TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
7,000
POWER PLANT
MW
Wind
Total system cost: $66.2 billion Solar 5.8%
19% Gas-fired
No significant 6,000 Power system investment: $12.6 billion 10%
5,242
TPES

change compared Energy independence 2050: 38 %

with Baseline Hydro
Scenario in 2050 5,233 376 27%
8,804
5,000 STORAGE
130 GWh
3,893
Nuclear
414 38%
4,000 WIND
194
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 SOLAR 2,771 2030
8
ANPP 2037 Baseline 1,031 1,495
3,000 418 Gas-fired
Wind 0.2%
4,194
440 440 7% Hydro
No significant 600 NUCLEAR Storage 13%
change compared 2,000 3%
600
FEC

4,193
with Baseline 1,404 1,404 HYDRO
Scenario
1,404 13,608
1,000
2,784 GAS FIRED 1,545 GWh
963 963 Nuclear
Solar
496 34%
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 42%
-
2024 2030 2040 2050 2050
22
ANPP 2037 AND TWO SMR-300 SCENARIO
GENERATION BY
TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
7,000 MW POWER PLANT
Wind
No significant
Total system cost: $66.4 billion Solar 5.8%
5,271 Gas-fired
change compared 6,000
Power system investment: $13.9 billion 19%
10%
with Baseline Energy independence 2050: 39 %
TPES

Scenario in 2050 467

5,233
Hydro
STORAGE 195 27%
5,000 8,804
GWh
3,893 504
Nuclear
4,000 WIND 194 65 38%
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050

ANPP 2037 and two SMR-300 2,944 2030

8 SOLAR
Baseline 1,031 1,988
3,000 418 Gas-fired
4,206
Wind 0.2%
No significant 440
NUCLEAR 440 9%
change compared
4,193
with Baseline 2,000 300 Storage Hydro
FEC

Scenario 600 5% 12%

1,404 1,404 HYDRO

1,404
1,000 GAS FIRED 13,943
2,784 1,545 GWh
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 963 963 Nuclear
496 Solar 33%
- 41%
2024 2030 2040 2050
2050 23
ANPP 2026 AND ONE SMR-300 SCENARIO
TPES AND FEC GENERATION BY
7,000 CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
MW POWER PLANT
Difference with Baseline Total system cost: $68․0 billion Wind
Solar 5.9%
Scenario in 2050 5,233 6,000 Power system investment: $13.6 billion 25
GEOTERMAL
TPES

-7 % 19%
Energy independence 2050: 33 % 467 Gas-fired
4,864 STORAGE 195 47%
3,893 5,000 25 8,711
GWh
WIND 481
4,000
65 Hydro
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
29%
ANPP 2026 and One SMR-300
8
194 3,290 2030
Baseline 1,849
3,000 418 SOLAR Gas-fired
1,031 0.2% Geothermal
Wind 0.8%
4,195 440 9%
No significant
change compared 300 NUCLEAR Hydro
4,193 2,000
FEC

with Baseline Storage 12%

Scenario 1,404 1,404 300 5%
HYDRO
1,545 Nuclear
1,000 13,963
2,784
GAS FIRED 1,545 GWh 16%

963 963 Solar

2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 496 57%
-
2024 2030 2040 2050 2050
24
ANPP 2037 AND ONE SMR SCENARIO
TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT GENERATION BY
7,000 MW POWER PLANT
Difference with Baseline Total system cost: $66.4 billion Wind
Scenario in 2050 5,233 Solar 5.8% Gas-fired
6,000
Power system investment: $13.2 billion 19% 10%
-6 %
TPES

Energy independence 2050: 34 % 467

STORAGE
195 Hydro
3,893 27%
4,899 5,000 8,804
GWh
WIND 504
Nuclear
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
4,000 65 38%
194
ANPP 2037 and one SMR-300
SOLAR
3,572 2030
Baseline 8 1,031 1,988
3,000 418 Gas-fired
4,208 Wind 0.2%
440 440 9%
No significant
change compared 4,193 NUCLEAR Hydro
300 Storage
FEC

2,000 13%
with Baseline 6%
Scenario 1,404 1,404 HYDRO 300

1,404
2,784 1,000 14,222 Nuclear
GAS FIRED
1,545 GWh 16%
963 963
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
496
-
2024 2030 2040 2050
Solar 2050
57% 25
POLICY SCENARIOS FOR ARMENIA LCEDP 2024-2050:
ENERGY EFFICIENCY SCENARIOS
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY SCENARIO

IMPROVEMENT IN END-USE TECHNOLOGIES SCENARIOS TRANSPORT ELECTRIFICATION SCENARIOS

EE-no limit EE-20 EE-50 EE-90 EV-50 EV-100

No limitations on
EV share in total Full (100%)
new demand 20% (EE-20), 50% (EE-50), and 90% cars is considered electrification of
technologies (EE-90) of forced implementation of EE 50% by 2050 cars by 2050
improvement measures

NO NEW FOSSIL GENERATION

27
EE-NO LIMIT SCENARIO
TPES AND FEC GENERATION BY
CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
7,000 MW POWER PLANT

Difference with Baseline

Total system cost: $49․6 billion Wind
7.1%
Scenario in 2050 6,000 Power system investment: $9․8 billion
Energy independence 2050: 50 %
TPES

-28 % 5,233
Gas-fired
Solar 35%
23%
3,893 3,770 5,000 7,200
467 GWh
3,157 STORAGE
65
4,000 WIND 504
65 Hydro
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
194 35% 2030
EE-no limit Baseline
8 2,379
3,000 418
1,031 SOLAR 1,882 Gas-fired
440 Wind 0.1%
11%
2,000 NUCLEAR Storage Hydro
Difference with Baseline
FEC

4,193 12%
Scenario in 2050 1,404 1,404 600 3%
-22 % HYDRO

3,256 1,404
1,000
2,784 GAS FIRED 11,414
1,404 GWh
2,249
963 963
496 Solar Nuclear
- 34% 40%
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
2024 2030 2040 2050
205028
 EE-20 SCENARIO
TPES AND FEC GENERATION BY
CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
7,000 MW POWER PLANT
Wind
Total system cost: $66.6 billion Solar 5.8%
Difference with Baseline
5,233
6,000 Power system investment: $12․5 billion 19%
Scenario in 2050
TPES

-5 % Energy independence 2050: 40 %

4,984
Gas-fired
3,893 5,000 8,722 47%
323
GWh
3,877 STORAGE 130
WIND
4,000
361 Hydro
29%

8 194 2030
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
1,470 2,413
EE-20 Baseline 3,000 418 SOLAR Gas-fired
1,031 Wind 0.1%
440 7%
Difference with Baseline
Scenario in 2050 600 NUCLEAR
Storage Hydro
4,193 2,000
FEC

-4 % 600 3% 13%
1,404 1,404 HYDRO
4,026
1,404
1,000 13,120
2,784 GAS FIRED 1,545 GWh
2,779
963 963
496 Solar Nuclear
- 42% 35%
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
2024 2030 2040 2050
2050
29
EE-50 SCENARIO
GENERATION BY
CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
TPES AND FEC 7,000 MW POWER PLANT
Total system cost: $63․7 billion Wind
Solar 5.9%
Power system investment: $11․6 billion 19%
Difference with Baseline 6,000
Scenario in 2050 5,233 Energy independence 2050: 44 %
TPES

-14 %
Gas-fired
3,893 5,000 467 8,573 46%
4,497
GWh
504 STORAGE
3,838 WIND 65
Hydro
65 29%
4,000
194 2030
8
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
2,471
EE-50 Baseline
3,000 418 2,188
SOLAR Gas-fired
440 1,031 Wind 0.1%
10%
Difference with Baseline NUCLEAR
Storage Hydro
Scenario in 2050 4,193 2,000
FEC

600 2% 14%
-11 % 1,404 1,404
HYDRO
3,718
1,545
1,000 12,799
2,784 GAS FIRED 1,545
GWh
963 963 Solar
2,759
496 Nuclear
- 38% 36%
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 2024 2030 2040 2050
2050
30
EE-90 SCENARIO
TPES AND FEC GENERATION BY
7,000 CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
MW POWER PLANT
Difference with Baseline Total system cost: $61․1 billion Wind
Scenario in 2050 Solar 6.1%
-23 % 5,233 6,000 Power system investment: $11․1 billion
20%
TPES

Energy independence 2050: 48 %

Gas-fired
3,893 5,000 467 8,398 45%
4,035 STORAGE GWh
3,795
504 65
4,000 65 Hydro
30%
WIND
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 194 2030
8 2,460 Gas-fired
EE-90 Baseline
3,000 418 2,155
SOLAR Wind 0.1%
1,031 10%
Difference with Baseline
440
Scenario in 2050
Storage Hydro
NUCLEAR
-19 % 4,193 2,000 2% 15%
FEC

600
1,404 1,404
HYDRO
1,479 12,426
1,000 GWh
GAS FIRED
2,784
3,376
1,545
Solar
963 963 36% Nuclear
2,736 496 37%
-
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
2024 2030 2040 2050 2050
31
EV-50 SCENARIO
GENERATION BY
TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
7,000 MW POWER PLANT
Wind
Total system cost: $66.0 billion 5.8%
Solar
Difference with Baseline 5,233 6,000
Power system investment: $14.5 billion 19%
Energy independence 2050: 44 % 467
TPES

Scenario in 2050
-7 % STORAGE
4,870
3,893 195
5,000 8,794
3,886
WIND GWh
448 Gas-fired
47%
65 Hydro
4,000
28%
3,149
2030
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050

8 194
EV-50 Baseline 1,714
3,000 418 SOLAR
1,031 Gas-fired
Wind 0.2%
Difference with Baseline 440 8% Hydro
Scenario in 2050 11%
-5 % 4,193 600 NUCLEAR Storage
2,000
FEC

600 4%
1,404 1,404
3,970 HYDRO
1,404
1,000 15,232
2,784 GAS FIRED 1,545 GWh Nuclear
2,784
963 963 30%
496
- Solar
46%
2024 2030 2040 2050
205032
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
EV-100 SCENARIO
GENERATION BY
TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
7,000 MW POWER PLANT
Total system cost: $66.9 billion Wind
Solar 3.0%
Difference with Baseline 5,517 Power system investment: $15․1 billion 17%
6,000
Scenario in 2050 Energy independence 2050: 53 %
TPES

5% 64
5,233
STORAGE 130
Gas-fired
3,886 5,000
8,841 52%
3,893 GWh
WIND
101 Hydro
4,000 2,729
28%
101 1,088
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
8 SOLAR 2030
EV-100 Baseline Gas-fired
3,000 418
Wind 0.2%
931 NUCLEAR 1%
440 1,080 Hydro
Storage
Difference with Baseline 1,080 2% 10%
2,000
FEC

4,193
Scenario in 2050
-10 % 1,404 1,404 HYDRO
1,404 16,333
3,794 1,000
2,784 GAS FIRED 1,545 GWh
Solar
2,784
963 963 36% Nuclear
496 51%
-
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
2024 2030 2040 2050 2050
33
POLICY SCENARIOS FOR ARMENIA LCEDP 2024-2050:
GHG EMISSIONS SCENARIO

34
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE GHG EMISSIONS SCENARIO
Carbon tax Carbon tax
$50/ton $100/ton

2024 2030 2050

TPES AND FEC PROJECTION IN GHG EMISSIONS SCENARIO, KTOE

5,250

TOTAL 5,233
PRIMARY 4,055
3,884 3,935
ENERGY No significant change compared
with Baseline Scenario in 2050
SUPPLY 3,893
3,605
3,485
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050

GHG emissions BaseLine

4,193
FINAL 3,166 3,311 3,526
3,832
2,895 3,025
ENERGY 2,784 4,190

CONSUMP 2,779
No significant change compared
TION with Baseline Scenario

2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050

35
CAPACITY AND GENERATION IN GHG EMISSIONS SCENARIO
GENERATION BY POWER
CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
7,000 MW PLANT
Total system cost: $75․5 billion Wind Gas-fired
6,000
Power system investment: $11․4 billion Solar 5.7% 2%
Energy independence 2050: 37 % 17%
504 Hydro
STORAGE 24%
130
5,000
8,948
WIND GWh
504
4,000 194 2,821
Nuclear
8
940
1,513
SOLAR
51% 2030
3,000 418 Gas-fired
600 Wind 3%
440 10%
NUCLEAR
600 600 Storage Hydro
2,000 14%
3%
1,404 1,404
HYDRO
1,404 1,404 13,191
1,000
GAS FIRED GWh
963 963 Nuclear
496 492 Solar 35%
- 34%
2024 2030 2040 2050
2050
36
POLICY SCENARIOS FOR ARMENIA LCEDP 2024-2050:
GEORGIA ELECTRICITY IMPORT/EXPORT SCENARIO

37
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE GEORGIA ELECTRICITY IMPORT/EXPORT SCENARIOS

Import/Export 300 MW Import/Export 300 MW

300 MW of electricity export from

300 MW of electricity export from
2027 and 1,050 MW from 2040 for
2027 for October-March period
October-March period

50 MW of electricity import from 2027

for April-September

NO NEW FOSSIL GENERATION

38
IMPORT/EXPORT 300 MW SCENARIO
GENERATION BY
TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT POWER PLANT
7,000
MW
Difference with Storage Wind
Baseline Scenario
5,987 Total system cost։ $68․6 billion 0.4% 3%
6,000
Power system investment։ $12․4 billion
TPES

in 2050
14 % Energy independence 2050։ 46 % Solar
15%
5,233
5,000 70
3,888 STORAGE 9,669
65 GWh Gas-fired
3,893 56%
107 Hydro
4,000 WIND SOLAR 26%
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050

1,088 2,143
Import/Export 300 MW Baseline
107 2030
8
3,000 418 NUCLEAR
Gas-fired
4,193 931 0.1%
440 Wind
No significant 1,080 Storage 2%
4,207 2% Hydro
change compared
2,000 1,080 12%
FEC

with Baseline
Scenario 1,404 1,404 HYDRO Solar
25%
1,404 13,975
2,784 1,000 GAS FIRED 1,545 GWh
2,784 963 963
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 496 Nuclear
- 59%
2024 2030 2040 2050 2050
39
IMPORT/EXPORT 1,050 MW SCENARIO
GENERATION BY
TPES AND FEC CAPACITY BY POWER PLANT
9,000 MW POWER PLANT

6,396
Total system cost։ $70.2 billion Storage Wind
Difference with 8,000 3%
Power system investment։ $17.8 billion 0.4%
Baseline Scenario
TPES

in 2050 Energy independence 2050։ 48 % Solar

22 % 7,000 15%
5,233
3,888 9,671 Gas-
GWh fired
6,000
3,893 70 56%
Hydro
STORAGE
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 195 26%
5,000
Import/Export 1,050 MW
Baseline
WIND 108
65
SOLAR 2030
Gas-fired
4,000 Wind 0.1%
1,324 2,757 1% Hydro
108 Storage
4,263 8 2%
7%
No significant change 3,000 418
compared with 4,193 440 931 1,080 NUCLEAR
FEC

Baseline Scenario
2,000 1,080
17,787
1,404 1,404 HYDRO
Solar GWh
1,545 44% Nuclear
2,784 1,000 GAS FIRED
1,545 46%
963 963
2,784
496 2050
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 -
2024 2030 2040 2050
40
CONCLUSIONS
TOTAL SYSTEM COST AND POWER SECTOR INVESTMENTS
KEY CONCLUSIONS
TOTAL SYSTEM COST AND POWER SECTOR INVESTMENTS BY
SCENARIO, BILLIONS OF USD
19%
More than 5 % 15 SCENARIOS 1.8% 9% High growth
Increased Extreme Gas 80.7
-2.1% 0.9%
Energy Efficiency in Demand in Price
-2.6% ANPP 2037 and one -1.9% -1.3% industry Industry 74.2
-6% EV-50 SMR-300 EU gas price EV-100 Baseline
68.4 69.0
67.8 GHG Emissions
EE-50 66.0 66.4 66.5 66.9
75.5
-15% 63.7 Import/Export
Low growth EE-20 ANPP 2032 ANPP 2026 and Import/Export 11%
ANPP 2037 ANPP 2037 and two 1,050 MW
57.5 Unchanged gas 66.6 67.0 one SMR-300 300 MW
66.2 SMR-300 70.2
EE-90 price… -1.2% 68.0 68.6
-2.3% 66.4 -1.7% 1.3%
61.1 0.4% 3.6%
-10% -1.9%
-2.8%
EE-no limit
49.6
-27% Difference from Baseline Scenario is
More than 5 %
within +/- 5 %
Import/Export
Unchanged ANPP 2026 and 1,050 MW
gas price ANPP 2037 and Import/Export High growth
one SMR-300 17.8
13.1 ANPP 2037 two SMR-300 EE-20 ANPP 2032 300 MW 16.6
EE-no limit EE-90 13.6
9.8 12.6 13.9 12.5 12.7 12.4 Extreme Gas
11.1
EV-100 Price
EV-50 Energy Efficiency
ANPP 2037 and 15.1 Baseline 26.3
EE-50 14.5 Increased Demand
Low growth one SMR-300 12.9 in industry GHG
11.6 EU gas price in Industry
9.9 13.2 13.9 Emissions
7.4 12.1
11.4

Total System Cost Total Power Sector Investment

42
KEY CONCLUSIONS
• The results of the Armenia LCEDP 2024-2050 emphasize the importance of ensuring a policy and
institutional environment to support the realization of new variable renewable generation to the
maximum extent feasible. This would ensure the lowest cost generation, strengthen Armenia’s energy security
and competitiveness and reduce reliance on imported energy sources.

• Armenia could achieve a fully carbon-neutral power system by 2050 if renewable and nuclear
generation are developed in parallel.

• Armenia’s use of fossil fuels will be approximately 50% by 2050. This could be further reduced through
the implementation of new technologies and demand side management.

• Natural gas is projected to contribute to more than 80% of pollutants in all the scenarios and
would be the main source of GHG emissions from all the energy carriers.

• The transport and household sectors have highest share of energy use over total FEC in all
considered scenarios (together - from 56% to 62%). The development of special policy measures ensuring
more RES usage instead of natural gas in household and transport sectors, will strengthen Armenia’s energy
independence.

43
KEY CONCLUSIONS

• The five high demand growth scenarios* assume significant demand growth, which is unlikely based on
historical data. To illustrate this point: during the last 20 years, Armenia’s demand has grown by
about 42%, while under the 5 high demand growth scenarios it is assumed that the demand will grow by
228%, 5.5 times more than the historical data.
• These scenarios add about 400 MW more demand in 2050 (from 2,200MW to 2,600MW), which would
require Armenia to build generation capacity in the form of new 1,080-MW NPP in 2036. If Armenia builds a
large (1,000 MW or more) NPP based on these assumptions, it would most likely bear the full cost of
capital investment while only using a fraction of the full capacity.
• A large (1,000 MW or more) NPP would require the Yerevan CCGT and Yerevan CCGT-2 units to
cease operation from 2036 since they would no longer be needed. Although, the Yerevan CCGT is a
state-owned company, the Government of Armenia has a contractual commitment under a PPA with Yerevan
CCGT-2 for 25-years, through 2046. As a result, the total electricity system cost would increase, as the fixed
costs of at least one of two mentioned power generation units is an obligation for the Government.

* High demand growth scenarios are: (1) High GDP growth: 50 percent higher growth than in Baseline Scenario; (2) Increased Demand in
Industry: Additional 200 MW of industrial capacity; (3) Export 300 MW: Regular export to Georgia at 300 MW; (4) Export 1,050 MW: Increased
export to Georgia at 1050 MW; (5) EV-100: 100 percent share of EVs in Armenia. 44
 KEY CONCLUSIONS
• From the operation/dispatch standpoint: a large (1,000 MW or more) NPP unit would be serving about 50% of the
system peak demand and very close to 100% of the nightly minimum demand/consumption, this would require all
other generating units (thermal, hydro and wind) to either be shut down overnight (6-8 hours), which
would have significant technical/operational consequences, or their electricity output would need to be stored.
Storing of such a volume of electricity will require large battery systems, involving technologies that are still in their
early stage of development and have not yet reach their maturity stage.
• If the capacity of one unit were to serve 50% of the peak demand, during annual maintenance and/or
system emergency situations, the system would require a reserve capacity of the same size. This would
create an additional economic burden to electricity consumers due to the high cost of reserved capacity.
• From the system dispatching standpoint, the best practice is to build a thermal unit that is not larger than
20% of the system peak demand.

Considering all developed scenarios and taking into account economic and energy security considerations, it is
recommended to consider nuclear generation with a capacity of no more than 600 MW. To reduce the
reserve capacity requirement, smaller modular reactors, with a maximum capacity of 300 MW, would
enable the country to improve the security of the supply without placing an additional financial burden on
the Armenian economy and electricity consumers.
45
Thank you for your attention

This presentation is made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for
International Development (USAID). The contents of this presentation are the sole responsibility of Tetra Tech ES, Inc.
and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government
ANNEX
 GHG EMISSIONS (CO2EQ), KT ENERGY INDEPENDENCE LEVELS, %
12,000
60
11,000
50
10,000
40
9,000
30
8,000

7,000 20

6,000 10

5,000 0
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
Baseline 6,191 7,614 7,789 6,320 6,637 6,962 7,491 7,961 Baseline 37 13 14 40 39 39 38 38
High growth 6,353 8,075 8,815 6,780 7,412 8,358 9,514 10,951 High growth 36 12 12 48 46 43 42 40
Low growth 6,035 7,196 7,083 6,761 6,575 6,445 6,021 5,821 Low growth 37 13 15 18 20 22 27 31
9,500
60
9,000
8,500 50

8,000 40
7,500
30
7,000
6,500 20
6,000
10
5,500
5,000 0
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
Baseline 6,191 7,614 7,789 6,320 6,637 6,962 7,491 7,961 Baseline 37 13 14 40 39 39 38 38
Increased Demand in Increased Demand in
6,190 9,066 5,924 6,188 6,421 6,773 7,364 7,992 37 10 51 50 50 49 47 46
Industry Industry
EE in Industry 6,257 7,749 7,971 6,443 6,724 7,063 7,730 8,246 EE in Industry 37 13 13 40 39 39 38 38
48
 GHG EMISSIONS (CO2EQ) , KT ENERGY INDEPENDENCE LEVELS , %
9,500 45

9,000 40

8,500 35

8,000 30

7,500 25

7,000 20

6,500 15

6,000 10

5,500 5

5,000 0
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
Baseline 6,191 7,614 7,789 6,320 6,637 6,962 7,491 7,961 Baseline 37 13 14 40 39 39 38 38
EU Gas Price 6,195 7,835 7,661 7,801 7,884 8,273 8,639 9,268 EU Gas Price 37 11 14 15 17 17 19 20
Unchanged Gas Price 6,208 8,065 8,303 7,480 7,592 7,888 7,268 7,939 Unchanged Gas Price 37 11 11 18 19 20 40 39

49
 GHG EMISSIONS (CO2EQ), KT ENERGY INDEPENDENCE LEVELS, %

9,000 45

8,000 40

7,000 35

6,000 30

5,000 25

4,000 20

3,000 15

2,000 10

1,000 5

0 0
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
Baseline 6,191 7,614 7,789 6,320 6,637 6,962 7,491 7,961 Baseline 37 13 14 40 39 39 38 38
ANPP 2032 6,191 6,422 6,375 6,343 6,637 6,963 7,491 7,959 ANPP 2032 37 36 38 40 39 39 38 38
ANPP 2037 6,191 6,422 6,336 6,551 6,813 6,963 7,491 7,959 ANPP 2037 37 36 38 38 38 39 38 38
ANPP 2026 and one SMR-300 6,191 7,617 7,792 7,478 6,774 7,195 7,617 7,996 ANPP 2026 and one SMR-300 37 13 14 18 32 31 32 33
ANPP 2037 and two SMR 6,191 6,422 6,336 6,551 6,774 7,387 7,414 7,967 ANPP 2037 and two SMR-300 37 36 38 38 38 30 39 39
ANPP 2037 and one SMR 6,191 6,350 6,336 6,551 6,774 7,387 7,580 8,004 ANPP 2037 and one SMR-300 37 37 38 38 38 30 32 34

50
 GHG EMISSIONS (CO2EQ), KT ENERGY INDEPENDENCE LEVELS, %
8,000 60
7,500
50
7,000
6,500 40
6,000 30
5,500
5,000 20
4,500 10
4,000
0
3,500 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
Baseline 37 13 14 40 39 39 38 38
Baseline 6,191 7,614 7,789 6,320 6,637 6,962 7,491 7,961
EE-no limit 44 18 20 22 24 25 52 50
EE-no limit 4,363 5,143 4,909 4,809 4,651 4,752 3,911 4,451
EE-20 37 13 14 41 40 40 39 40
EE-20 6,151 7,509 7,640 6,125 6,390 6,658 7,093 7,339
EE-50 37 14 15 18 20 21 44 44
EE-50 6,039 7,276 7,269 7,002 6,834 6,928 5,802 6,080
EE-90 38 14 15 18 21 22 48 48
EE-90 5,926 7,004 6,828 6,463 6,149 6,117 4,932 4,975

8,500 60

8,000 50

7,500 40

7,000
30
6,500
20
6,000
10
5,500
0
5,000 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
Baseline 37 13 14 40 39 39 38 38
Baseline 6 191 7 614 7 789 6 320 6 637 6 962 7 491 7 961
EV-50 37 13 14 41 41 41 42 44
EV-50 6 174 7 582 7 757 6 156 6 291 6 373 6 596 6 642
EV-100 37 13 13 52 52 51 51 53
EV-100 6 174 7 615 8 029 5 722 5 884 6 161 6 322 6 322
51
 GHG EMISSIONS (CO2EQ), KT ENERGY INDEPENDENCE LEVELS, %

8,500 45

40
8,000

35

7,500
30

7,000 25

20
6,500

15
6,000
10

5,500 5

0
5,000 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
Baseline 37 13 14 40 39 39 38 38
Baseline 6,191 7,614 7,789 6,320 6,637 6,962 7,491 7,961
GHG 37 41 41 40 40 39 39 37
GHG 6,170 5,844 6,026 6,245 6,495 6,868 7,396 8,094

52
 GHG EMISSIONS (CO2EQ), KT ENERGY INDEPENDENCE LEVELS, %

9,000 60

8,500
50

8,000

40
7,500

7,000 30

6,500
20

6,000

10
5,500

5,000 0
2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2040 2045 2050
Baseline 6,191 7,614 7,789 6,320 6,637 6,962 7,491 7,961 Baseline 37 13 14 40 39 39 38 38
Import/Export 300 MW 6,168 8,110 8,520 6,062 6,314 6,795 7,379 8,013 Import/Export 300 MW 37 12 12 51 50 48 47 46
Import/Export 1,050 MW 6,168 8,110 8,520 6,057 6,306 7,627 7,754 8,230 Import/Export 1,050 MW 37 12 12 51 50 46 47 48

53
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
BASELINE SCENARIO
MW
2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2027 2033 2050
-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–12-hour storage
Solar–thermal concentrating–Six-hour storage Wind Wind (existing) Import
Export Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
54
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
MW
2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
(200)
2027 2033 2050
(400)

Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Hydro pumped storage plant
Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP Small HPP
Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5 Hrazdan TPP
Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT ANPP Solar PV Central
Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing) Solar PV floating Solar PV residential
Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–12-hour storage Wind Wind (existing)
Import Export Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
55
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

MW
2,800

2,600

2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2027 2033 2050
-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–Six-hour storage
Wind Wind (existing) Import Export
Generation -export+import Final Electricity Consumption
56
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
INCREASED DEMAND IN INDUSTRY SCENARIO
MW
2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2024 2030 2050

-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP Hydro pumped storage plant
Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP Small HPP Lithium-ion storage
Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5 Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT
NPP (new) ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Wind Wind (existing)
Import Export Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption

57
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE ENERGY
EFFICIENCY IN INDUSTRY SCENARIO
MW
2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2027 2033 2050
-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–12-hour storage
Solar–thermal concentrating–Six-hour storage Wind Wind (existing) Import
Export Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
58
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
EU GAS PRICE SCENARIO
MW
2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200 2027 2033 2050

-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP Hydro pumped storage plant
Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input
CCGT Hrazdan Unit 5 Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT
Gas turbine ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Wind Wind (existing) Import
Export Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
59
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
UNCHANGED GAS PRICE SCENARIO
MW
2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200 2027 2033 2045

-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–12-hour storage
Geothermal Wind Wind (existing) Import
Export Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
60
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
ANPP 2032 SCENARIO
MW
2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200 2027 2033 2050

-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–Six-hour storage
Wind Wind (existing) Import Export
Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
61
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
ANPP 2037 SCENARIO
MW
2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2033 2040 2050

-400

Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–Six-hour storage
Wind Wind (existing) Import Export
Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
62
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
ANPP 2037 and two SMR-300 SCENARIO
MW
2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2033 2040 2050
-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–12-hour storage
Solar–thermal concentrating–Six-hour storage Wind Wind (existing) Import
Export Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption

63
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
ANPP 2026 and One SMR-300 SCENARIO
MW
2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2027 2036 2050
-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–12-hour storage
Solar–thermal concentrating–Six-hour storage Wind Geothermal Wind (existing)
Import Export Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
64
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
ANPP 2037 and one SMR-300 SCENARIO

MW
2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2033 2040 2050
-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–12-hour storage
Solar–thermal concentrating–Six-hour storage Wind Wind (existing) Import
Export Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
65
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
EE-NO LIMIT SCENARIO
MW
1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200 2027 2036 2045

-400

Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Hydro pumped storage plant
Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Small HPP Lithium-ion storage
Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5 Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2
Yerevan CCGT NPP (new) ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central
Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing) Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing)
Solar–thermal concentrating–12-hour storage Wind Wind (existing) Import
Export Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
66
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
EE-20 SCENARIO
MW
2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2027 2033 2050
-400

Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–12-hour storage
Wind Wind (existing) Import Export
Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
67
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
EE-50 SCENARIO
MW
2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200 2027 2033 2045

-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–12-hour storage
Wind Wind (existing) Import Export
Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
68
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
EE-90 SCENARIO
MW
2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200 2027 2033 2045

-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–12-hour storage
Wind Wind (existing) Import Export
Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption

69
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
EV-50 SCENARIO
MW
2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2027 2033 2050
-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–Six-hour storage
Wind Wind (existing) Import Export
Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption

70
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
EV-100 SCENARIO
MW
2,600

2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2027 2033 2050
-400

Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–Six-hour storage
Wind Wind (existing) Import Export
Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption

71
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
GHG EMISSIONS SCENARIO
MW
2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200 2027 2036 2050

-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input
Small HPP (existing) Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input CCGT
Hrazdan Unit 5 Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT Gas turbine
NPP (new) ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Wind Wind (existing) Import
Export Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
72
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
IMPORT/EXPORT 300 MW SCENARIO
MW
2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2027 2033 2050

-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–12 hr storage Wind
Wind (existing) Import Export Generation -export+import
Final Energy Consumption
73
 ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONSUMPTION LOAD BY TIME SLICE
IMPORT/EXPORT 1,050 MW SCENARIO
MW
2,800

2,600

2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP FAD FAN FAP SPD SPN SPP SUD SUN SUP WID WIN WIP
-200
2027 2033 2050
-400
Local cogeneration plant Vorotan HPP Cascade Sevan-Hrazdan HPP Cascade Loriberd HPP
Hydro pumped storage plant Hydro pumped storage plant Input Small HPP (existing) Shnokh HPP
Small HPP Lithium-ion storage Lithium-ion storage Input Hrazdan Unit 5
Hrazdan TPP Yerevan CCGT-2 Yerevan CCGT NPP (new)
ANPP (existing) Solar PV Central Solar PV commercial Solar PV commercial (existing)
Solar PV floating Solar PV residential Solar PV residential (existing) Solar–thermal concentrating–Six-hour storage
Solar–thermal concentrating– 12 hr storage Wind Wind (existing) Import
Export Generation -export+import Final Energy Consumption
74