An overview of History

Before starting Foreign Policy

Post Napoleonic Era

● Congress of Vienna
● Concert of Europe (1814-1914)
● Unification of Germany by Otto Von Bismarck, 1871
● Multipolar World
● First World War 1914-1918
● Treaty of Versaille 1919
Continued

● League of Nations
● World War 2
● United Nations
● Bipolar World
● Starting of Cold War between USSR and USA
COLD WAR
Communism/Marxism Main Issue : Class System
Solution: A classless society

Factory Owner Factory Worker

Means of Production (Machines) Mode of Production (Skill)
(factory)
20% work, 80% profit 80% work, 20% profit

End Result: Dialectical Materialism

“An iron
curtain has
descended over
the globe”

Winston
Churchill, PM
of UK,
Published in
NYT in 1949.
3 phases of Cold War
Era of tight bipolarity 1947-1962
George F. Keenan’s Long Telegram, “The sources of Soviet Conduct, Article X”

“Diplomatically frustrate USSR”

Truman Doctrine (400 million $ to turkey and greece) “to support freedom loving people

Marshal plan (1300 million $ to Europe)

in Retaliation, Salin’s Expansionist Doctrine

Propaganda
continued…
1st main theatre: korean war , 38th parallel Domino

theory

2nd main theatre: China-USSR collaboration 3rd:

formation of NATO,and CIA, 1949

4th Warsaw pact

5th Vietnam War 1953-1975 6th

U2 plane incident, 1959

Era of loose bipolarity (1962-1975)
Cuban Missile Crisis , 1962

USA gave detente-doctrine, “ability to mutually coexist peacefully”

START, SALT, HOTLINE, CTBT, PTBT

Revival of era of tight bipolarity 1975-1991
1975 to 1985 : Escalation Afghan

cold war

1985 to 1991 : De Escalation

Gorbachev reforms

fall of berlin wall 1989 division

of USSR

policy of rapprochement: “today we are…”

7 Characteristics of Cold War
1. Bipolar struggle: no 3rd party involved
2. Hybrid Struggle: power and ideology
3. Global Struggle: m.east (arab-israel war, 1973)
4. fought in the shadows of thermal nuclear weapons: (US:1945, hiroshima)
(USSR: 1949)
5. Paradoxical peace : no direct war
6. Cooperative Dimension: detente during cuban missile crisis, 1963 hotline
agreement,PTBT 1963, SALT-1 1972, SALT-2 1979
 continued…
Fought between asymmetrical adversaries:
1. robust versus weak economy
2. liberal versus controlled economy
3. capitalism versus communism
4. liberal politics versus controlled
5. tolerant to criticism versus intolerant
6. naval power versus land power
7. small accurate versus large less accurate nuclear warheads
8. military plus economic power versus economically hollow power
9. complete super power versus incomplete super power
10. USA allies had autonomy versus USSR’s allies held tightly
 Foreign Policy
A
● written/unwritten
● declared/undeclared
● documented/undocumented
● covert/overt

strategic direction, vision, policies, strategies or plan

to organize the relations with a state is called foreign
policy.
Or

A policy pursued by a state, in its future dealings with

another state to secure its national interest is called as
foreign policy of a state.
Foreign Policy of Russia
 Pre 9/11 and Post Cold War, 1991
● Weak Military Weak
● Economy
● Weak Political Situation Weak
● Social System

ANCE,
● Foreign
due to NATO’S
policy was:
STRICT VIGIL

1. Internalized
2. Domestic reforms
3. Non- Confrontation
4. Isolationist
5. No room for Russia to expand
Post 9/11
● Technical blunder / Miscalculation by USA
● NATO deviated from original anti-Russia policy
● Went to IRAQ and Afghanistan.
PUTIN-ization of Russia

● This provided Russia with a strategic vacuum, and allowed it to be:

● Externalized
● Assertive
● Expansionist
● Hegemonic
● Power oriented
● Aggressive
Foreign Policy of Russia

● PIVOT: USA centered

● ORIENTATION: anti-America

● Scope: Totality of Issues

Crimean Crisis
Crimean Crisis

● Boundry commission of UN annexed Crimea with Ukraine

instead of Russia
● UN-led puppet referendum
● Russia’s IRREDENTIST claim
● From 2008 to 2014
● PUTIN annexed Crimea in 2014
1. Diplomatic boycott (political)
2. Froze assets of Russia in European Countries (economic)

RUSSIA’S MOVE
1. GASPROM : closed, 4 days blackout in Germany
2. Went to Syria to support Bashar ul Assad
3. Entered global politics

If I put Crimean message into one slogan,

‘RUSSIA IS BACK’ ! ”
Ukraine Crisis

East Ukraine : Russian Influence West

Ukraine : EUROPE’s influence Central

Ukraine : Europe’s influence

● Internal rifts over ideology

 Events
1. 2013: multi-billion $ deal with EU
2. 3 Baltic states joined NATO
(Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia)
3. 2021: military exercise with 8
NATO members
4. RUSSIA gave 5 billion $ bailout
package

WAR BEGAN : 24, FEBURARY

2022
Continued
PUTIN’s 5000-words treatise “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”

Resisting NATO’s Westward Expansion

81% of Russians supported this “Special Operation” - Levada Centre Anyone

against it, declared “National Traitor”

Implications of Russia Ukraine Conflict
Geostrategic
Implications
1. Russian resurgence and re-
expansionist agenda

2. Revival of NATO -
Operation Steadfast
Defender

3. Warm water access of

Russia
historical quest for warm waters
continued…
● Global Hybrid warfare
● Domino Effect
● Nuclear Flashpoint
Geopolitical Implications
1. Changing Global Order- Unipolar in jeopardy
2. Revival of Cold War Politics
3. Polarization in Europe
4. Emergence of Bloc politics
5. Organizational Imbalance
6. Refugee Influx
7. Corrosion of Globalization
Geoeconomic Implications
1. Economic Sanctions leading global inflation
2. Emerging energy crisis
3. Food insecurity
4. BRI question
5. Decline in Innovation
On Russia
1. Aristocratic Rulers cannot lose wars and remain autocrats - Tsar Nicholas 2
2. Fighting the wrong war- (Rise and Fall of Great Powers - Paul Kennedy)
3. Financial Burden
4. Military’s disregard for soldiers - “sending them to wood chipper” - Lloyd Austin,
US’s Secretary of Defense.
Russia and Pakistan
RUSSIA and PAKISTAN BILATERAL

SCO •Bid placed by Russia, 2016

•3 times declined in the past

•2017-2021, “DO MORE” by USA

RATS • “Pakistan army is an anti-terror
expert and we want to learn from
it”

•Lifted in 2018
Arms Embargo,1981 •Defense cooperation
Economic
•Sept, 2019
•Just asked for a small penalty in Rupees Export Embargo, 1969

•Indian patent declined

Rice Patent

•Offer to reconstruct Steel Mill, 1973

•6 billion Chinese loan

•Offered FDI ML-1 automatic railway
system

•Russia offered 2 billion $

IP-GASPIPELINE, 2017
Political

•Pro-india in past
Kashmir issue •Neutral now

CPEC connectivity

•April, 2021
Blank Cheque • Sergei Lavrov’s
Visit