Argus Biofuels

Daily international market prices and commentary

Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024

HIGHLIGHTS PRICES
Biofuels spot prices $/t
„ Strength in ARA biodiesel premiums firms prices
Bid Ask ±
„ HEFA-SPK SAF fob premium edges up after strong loss
„ UK and Netherlands renewable fuel ticket prices increase RED biodiesel fob ARA range

„ Asia-Pacific biofuels: China HVO discussions surface Palm OME 1,228.00 1,238.00 +13.00
Rapeseed OME 1,283.00 1,293.00 +20.00
Soya OME 1,255.00 1,265.00 +13.00
FAME 0°C CFPP 1,253.00 1,263.00 +13.00
MARKET COMMENTARY FAME -10°C CFPP 1,280.00 1,290.00 +19.00
UCOME 1,378.98 1,388.98 +11.17

NWE spot biodiesel premiums climb Tallow OME 1,338.98 1,348.98 +11.17
POME OME 1,358.98 1,368.98 +11.17
European biodiesel fob ARA range premiums to the ICE gasoil
Advanced FAME 0°C CFPP 1,473.98 1,483.98 +11.17
7-28 day strip rose across the board on Friday, countering a RED marine biodiesel (VLSFO blend)
several-month low in gasoil prices to see outrights gain. B30 (UCOME) dob ARA range 828.00 838.00 -2.00
Gasoil prices fell for the third consecutive trading ses- B24 (UCOME) dob Algeciras-Gibraltar 775.00 785.00 -4.00

sion, with lower front-month values tied to weak demand in Mid ±

northwest Europe. The 7-28 gasoil strip dipped by $10.83/t
B20 (Advanced Fame 0°C) dob ARA range 710.48 -3.37
to $733.98/t, the lowest level since December 2023. B30 (Advanced Fame 0°C) dob ARA range 779.46 -1.56
Argus assessed Fame 0 spot value up by $24.50/t on the B100 (Advanced Fame 0°C) dob ARA range 1,247.38 +11.14
day at $524.50/t, the traded average of two deals at $524- RED hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) fob ARA range
HVO (Class I)
525/t on Argus Open Markets (AOM). The outright price rose diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* $/m³
+540.00 +550.00 nc
by $13/t to $1,258/t, weighed by the weakening gasoil. HVO (Class I)
+692.31 +705.13 nc
diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil*
RME spot values climbed even further, increasing by HVO (Class I) 1,487.46 1,500.28 -11.73
$30.45/t to $554/t, in line with one trade on AOM. The out- HVO (Class II)
+580.00 +590.00 nc
diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* $/m³
right price increased by $20/t to $1,288/t, bringing the RME/ HVO (Class II)
+743.59 +756.41 nc
Fame 0 spread to $30/t after narrowing earlier in the week. diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil*
HVO (Class II) 1,538.74 1,551.56 -11.73
Ucome traded once at $650/t, where spot value was
HVO (Class III)
+555.00 +565.00 nc
assessed, up by $22/t from the previous session. Outright diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* $/m³
HVO (Class III)
Ucome prices rose by $11.17/t to $1,383.98/t. diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil*
+711.54 +724.36 nc
Advanced Fame 0 maintained a $95/t premium over HVO (Class III) 1,506.69 1,519.51 -11.73
Ucome despite low demand, which was noted by brokers and HVO (Class IV)
+560.00 +570.00 nc
diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* $/m³
traders to be weighing on the larger Pome oil-based biodies- HVO (Class IV)
+717.95 +730.77 nc
diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil*
el market in ARA as well.
HVO (Class IV) 1,513.10 1,525.92 -11.73
In political developments, delegates from France, *HVO-escalated
Germany, and the Netherlands called on the European RED Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)
Commission to intensify its investigation into alleged fraud HEFA-SPK^ fob ARA range
in Asian biofuel exports to Europe during a meeting of EU SAF diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* $/m³ (31 May) +795.00 +805.00 +5.00
SAF diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* (31 May) +1,046.05 +1,059.21 +6.58
CONTENTS SAF 1,862.12 1,875.28 -5.46

Mid ±
European biodiesel 1
European bio-bunkers and hydrotreated vegetable oil 2-3 SAF (ex HBE-IXB Netherlands credits) 929.63 -5.57
European ethanol 4 HEFA-SPK^ cif NWE
SAF diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* $/m³ (31 May) +825.00 +835.00 nc
European feedstocks 4
SAF diff to 7-28 days Ice gasoil* (31 May) +1,085.53 +1,098.68 nc
Asia-Pacific biofuels and freight 7 SAF 1,901.60 1,914.75 -12.04
US biofuels and month to date averages 9 ^Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA-SPK)
Market news 10 *RED SAF-escalated

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Argus Biofuels Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024

RED biodiesel fob ARA range, premium to Ice gasoil 7-28 day Biofuels spot prices $/t
Bid Ask ±
Transaction Price ($/t)
Bionaphtha fob ARA range 1,660.00 1,670.00 -10.00
FAME 0°C CFPP, loading 07 Jun 2024 - 28 Jun 2024 (1,000t) Biopropane fca ARA range 1,540.00 1,550.00 nc
BP buys from Viterra B.V. +524.00
BP buys from Cargill +525.00
Hydrotreated biofuels prices (volume) $/m³
Bid Ask ±
Rapeseed OME, loading 07 Jun 2024 - 28 Jun 2024 (1,000t)
TotalEnergies buys from ExxonMobil +554.00 HVO fob ARA range (Class II)* 1,200.22 1,210.22 -9.15
SAF fob ARA range* 1,415.21 1,425.21 -4.15

UCOME, loading 07 Jun 2024 - 28 Jun 2024 (1,000t) SAF cif NWE* 1,445.22 1,455.21 -9.15

Petroineos buys from Mercuria +650.00 Bionaphtha fob ARA range* 1,145.40 1,152.30 -6.90
Biopropane fca ARA range* 803.88 809.10 nc
*HVO, SAF, bionaphtha and biopropane have assumed densities of 0.78kg/l,
energy ministers. Notably, the member states proposed that 0.76kg/l, 0.69kg/l and 0.522kg/l respectively.
sustainability certification be suspended if producers refused
access to inspecting agents of member states’ authorities. Ice gasoil $/t
In the biodiesel paper market, over 150,000t of trade
Contract Value ±
was reported. Some of the key trades include two June
RME/Fame 0 spreads at +$24-25/t ($520-523/t, $496-498/t) 7 to 28 days forward 733.98 -10.83
7 to 28 days forward (HVO-escalated) 795.15 -11.73
for a total of 2,000t, two 3Q RME/Fame 0 spreads that trad-
7 to 28 days forward (SAF-escalated) 816.07 -12.04
ed at +$75/t ($460/t, $385/t) for a total of 6,000t/month,
Settle
and two 4Q RME/Fame 0 spreads that traded at +$138-140/t
Jun 731.75 -11.00
($455/t, $315-317/t) for a total of 4,000t/month.
Jul 734.50 -11.00
For Fame 0 paper, June/July traded at +$55/t ($500/t,
Aug 737.50 -10.75
$445/t) for $1,000t/month, supporting earlier claims of buy-
ers stocking up on single-counted product. The 3Q/4Q Fame
0 spread traded at +$70/t ($385/t, $315/t) for 1,000t/month.
Gasoil spreads $/t
Ucome saw the strongest paper liquidity, with June/July
trading three times at +$30-36/t ($635-650/t, $605-615/t) Month Value ±

for a total of 6,000t/month. The Ucome July/3Q spread also Palm oil-gasoil spread (Pogo) Aug 128.00 +30.50
traded three times at +$35-36/t ($605-615/t, $570-579/t) for Bean oil-gasoil spread (Bogo) Aug 270.25 +11.50
7,500t versus 2,500t/month total. The 4Q/1Q Ucome spread
traded twice at +$10-15/t ($535/t, $520-525/t) for 5,000t/
Biofuels spot prices $/t
month total. And Ucome/Fame 0 4Q traded at +$215/t
Bid Ask ±
($535/t, $320/t) for 1,000t/month, while Ucome/RME 4Q
traded at +$77/t ($535/t, $458/t) for 2,000t/month. RED ethanol fob ARA range
Double-counting ethanol inc duty €/m³ 920.00 930.00 nc

European bio-bunkers Double-counting ethanol inc duty 1,264.54 1,278.29 +0.14

European marine biodiesel prices mostly fell amid lacklustre T2 premium ethanol inc duty €/m³ 724.00 734.00 nc
T2 premium ethanol inc duty 995.14 1,008.88 +0.11
spot demand and easing fossil markets on Friday.
T2 ethanol inc duty €/m³ 714.00 724.00 nc
Participants said high premiums against fossil counter-
T2 ethanol inc duty 981.39 995.14 +0.11
parts weighed on voluntary demand for blended product.
T2 ethanol diff to Eurobob non-oxy +174.39 +187.64
Very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and marine gasoil (MGO)
RED biomethanol
dob ARA and GAC slipped for the second day. Front-month
Biomethanol fob ARA range netback 1,046.00 1,054.00 nc
Ice Brent crude futures and Ice gasoil futures fell as well.
Biomethanol fob ARA range netback €/t 964.52 971.89 -0.11
EU emissions trading system (ETS) prices slipped to
Biomethanol fob ARA range diff to methanol +712.06 +722.06 -0.04
$78.39/t from $79.82/t. The premiums held by biodiesel
Biomethanol cif UK 1,080.00 1,090.00 nc
blends against conventional counterparts mostly widened.
ETBE
B30 Ucome dob ARA values decreased by $2/t to $833/t,
ETBE fob Rotterdam (30 May) 1,194.00 1,194.50 -32.75
but the blend’s ETS-incorporated premium against VLSFO
Diff to MTBE (30 May) +220.00

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Argus Biofuels Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024

gained $5.54/t to $263.36/t. Calculated B30 Advanced Fame RED swaps and forward physical prices $/t
0 dob ARA prices slipped by $1.56/t to $779.46/t, but the Contract Jun Jul Aug 3Q 24 4Q 24 1Q 25
blend’s premium to VLSFO dob ARA widened by just under
RME swap
$6/t to $209.82/t when ETS costs were accounted for. B24
dob Algeciras-Gibraltar lost $4/t to $780/t, and its ETS-inclu- Mid 1,265.00 1,228.00 1,201.00 1,201.00 1,195.00 1,174.00

sive premium to VLSFO narrowed by $2.07/t to $175.79/t. ± +10.00 +5.00 nc nc +5.00 +5.00
Calculated B100 Advanced Fame 0 dob ARA values in-
Fame 0°C CFPP swap
creased by $11.14/t to $1,247.38/t, on the back of Advanced
Fame 0 biodiesel barge assessments hitting near two-month Mid 1,235.00 1,183.00 1,126.00 1,126.00 1,060.00 1,044.00

highs, while its ETS-inclusive premium against MGO main- ± +5.00 +5.00 +5.00 +5.00 -5.00 -10.00
tained a two-month high to widen by $16.48 to $420.86/t.
UCOME swap

Hydrotreated vegetable oil Mid 1,385.00 1,353.00 1,321.00 1,321.00 1,275.00 1,259.00

Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) premiums held steady on ± +20.00 +15.00 +10.00 +10.00 nc +10.00
the week while outright prices declined.
PME forward physical
Four buyers were active for HVO (Class II) on Friday,
Mid 1,210.00 1,158.00 1,101.00 1,101.00 1,025.00 1,009.00
but failed to attract sellers. Bids for loading 7-28 June were
at $530/m³ by the close, up from $500/m³ earlier in the ± +5.00 +5.00 +5.00 +5.00 -5.00 -10.00
assessment period and without offers. The premium was SME forward physical
unchanged at $585/m³. In the paper market, a contract
Mid 1,235.00 1,188.00 1,131.00 1,136.00 1,080.00 1,064.00
for Class II dealt for June/July at +$5/t ($810/t, $805/t) for
3,000t/month, as a premium to the front-month gasoil. ± +5.00 +5.00 +5.00 +5.00 -5.00 -10.00

Selling interest for Class IV was absent on Friday but Fame -10°C CFPP forward physical
three buyers were active through the session, with bids ris-
Mid 1,262.00 1,224.00 1,194.00 1,194.00 1,182.00 1,161.00
ing from $500/m³ to $525/m³. The premium held at $565/m³.
Interest for classes I and III was absent. The premiums ± +9.00 +5.00 +1.00 +1.00 +4.00 +3.00

were stable at $545/m³ and $560/m³, respectively. HVO (Class II) swap
The HVO-escalated 7-28 day Ice gasoil price decreased by
Mid 1,545.00 1,543.00 1,546.00 1,546.00 1,530.00 1,519.00
$11.73 /t to $795.15/t on Friday.
Discussions for palm oil mill effluent (Pome)-based HVO ± +5.00 nc nc nc -5.00 -5.00

fob China continued, with sellers willing to take the cost of Ethanol NWE T2 swap €/m³
any potential EU anti-dumping duties (ADDs) in some cases.
Mid 725.00 715.00 700.00 703.00 677.00 667.00
And TotalEnergies' 500,000 t/yr HVO has delivered its
± nc +1.00 +1.00 +3.00 +3.00 +1.00
first cargo following an upgrade which took over two months
to complete. A delivery of 10,000t arrived at Antwerp's Ze-
nith Energy terminal on 30 May, according to Argus tracking.
HEFA-SPK SAF vs HVO (Class II) fob ARA $/t
Sustainable aviation fuel
The fob ARA range hydrotreated esters and fatty acids
HEFA-SPK SAF HVO (Class II)
synthesised paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK) premium inched 3,500
up on Friday, following a steep decline earlier in the week.
Lacklustre spot demand coupled with a regular flow of
3,000
imports from Asia and growing European production is
weighing on northwest European sustainable aviation fuel
(SAF) prices, attendees at the International Air Transport 2,500 hhh
Association (IATA) event in Vienna told Argus this week.
Corporate and voluntary consumption is subdued, and some 2,000
are faced with logistic constraints and limits to storage.
The fob ARA range and cif NWE premiums fell sharply on
1,500
Tuesday, as an offer for 1,000t used cooking oil (UCO)-based
Jun 23 Oct 23 Jan 24 May 24

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Argus Biofuels
HEFA-SPK barges on Argus Open Markets (AOM) steadily low-
ered from $900/m³ to $800/m³, while the most competitive
buying interest held steady at $750/m³.
But market views differ and a cif trade for UCO-based
HEFA-SPK for prompt delivery in northwest Europe, not
meeting Argus’ size and loading period specifications, was
reported at more than $400/t above Friday’s price. Others
saw spot offers at much lower levels.
Selling interest for 1,000t of HEFA-SPK fob loading on
6-27 June held steady at $870/m³ on Friday, while buying in-
terest firmed by $60/m³ during the session to $760/m³. This
compares with closing bids at $725/m³ the previous day. Of-
fers were at $870/m³ having softened from $900/m³ to $870/
m³ on Thursday. In the wider market, bids and offers for
June loading were at $750-800/m³. Bids were also reported
below $750/m³, while the sell side ranged up to $1,050/m³.
The fob ARA range HEFA-SPK premium assessment firmed
by $5/m³ on the day on Friday, but lost $205/m³ on the
week at $800/m³. The cif NWE price held steady on the
day at $830/m³. The fob ARA range outright price was at
$1,868.70/t, equating to a $1,068/t premium to weekly cif
NWE jet fuel, while the cif NWE outright was at $1,908.18/t.
Following Tuesday’s large loss, on Wednesday's AOM, of-
fers for HEFA-SPK fob ARA fell from $850/m³ to $800/m³ by
the close, while bids moved from $725/m³ to $770/m³.
European ethanol
Spot ethanol prices in Northwest Europe were flat on Friday,
but marginally higher on the week.
No crop-based lower greenhouse gas (GHG) savings etha-
nol barges changed hands, but interest stood at €715-726/m³
for 8-12 June loading. Argus assessed the lower GHG savings
ethanol price at €719/m³, unchanged on the day and within
Friday’s closing interest. The weekly average price was
€716.75/m³, up by around €17/m³ on the week.
Trade on the paper market was focused on 3Q, which
traded around €700/m³. Trade also comprised June/July/Au-
gust around -€6/m³ (€725/m³, €716/m³, €701/m³).
Spot minimum 90pc GHG savings single-counting ethanol
fob ARA range was at a premium of €10/m³ over product
with lower GHG savings, flat on the day but softer by €5/m³
on the week. Participants cited low demand.
Prompt UK and Netherlands double-counting ethanol was
assessed at €925/m³, flat on the day but firmer by €15/m³ on
the week, on the back of firming interest in the UK.
European gasoline prices are falling significantly, with
margins to crude reaching their lowest levels since mid-
March on 30 May. Independently-held gasoline stocks at the
ARA hub rose by 9.7pc in the week to 30 May to 993,000t,
according to Insights Global.
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Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024
Food and feed crop feedstocks
Fob Dutch mill spot and curve prices held steady on Friday,
despite losses reported for Cbot soybean oil futures.
Prompt RSO was higher by €5/t on the day at €1,013/t,
as a weighted loading average of June and July interest at
€1,015-1,025/t and €990-995/t, respectively.
Bids and offers for August-September-October (ASO) were
at €983-988/t, and the strip was assessed there, lifting it
higher by €6/t. November-December-January (NDJ) changed
hands once at €995/t, twice at €996/t, and twice at €997/t
during the session, with the strip assessed at the traded
average of €996/t, higher by €7/t. February-March-April
(FMA) was bid, offered and assessed at €990-998/t on Friday,
edging the midpoint higher by €4/t at €984/t.
Waste and advanced feedstocks
Used cooking oil (UCO) cif ARA prices rose followning
declines earlier this week based on trade and indications.
UCO cif ARA prices were reported at $970-985/t, reflect-
ing measured gains in biodiesel spot Ucome prices.
A deal for 2,000t of UCO cif ARA with Eur1 status and
5pc free fatty acids (FFA), 2pc moisture and impurities
(MIU), iodine value of 80g/hg and sulphur content of 50ppm
(5/2/80/50) was done at $990/t, originating from the Middle
East, in isotanks. This marked the UCO cif ARA assessment
at $970/t on Friday, higher by $15/t on the day.
In the previous session, a deal for 4,000t of UCO cif
ARA with T1 status and 3/2/80/50 closed at $960/t from
the Middle East in flexitanks, but was considered below the
market by most participants. Indications for UCO with the
same specifications from the Middle East were at $1,020/t.
An offer for UCO cif ARA with T1 status and 5/2/65/50 was
heard at $970/t versus a bid at $950/t from South Asia.
Around 16,850t of UCO from Fangcheng, China, is set to
arrive in Rotterdam, Netherlands, on 28 June, according to
trade analytics platform Kpler.
UCO ex-works ARA prices were stable at €1,010-1,020/t,
having gained €10/t on 30 May. That day, buying interest for
UCO DDP ARA with 5/2/70/50 was heard at around €1,040/t.
An offer for UCO fob ARA range on Argus Open Markets
(AOM) emerged at $1,165/t for 500t, loading over 14-28 June.
With no bids on AOM and buying interest outside AOM also
limited, the assessment was steady at $1,080/t. Thursday
saw more AOM activity, with five bids between $1,040-1,061/
t and two offers between $1,120-1,165/t loading 13-27 June.
Indications for categories 1 and 2 tallow, as well as cate-
gory 3, emerged in line with assessed fca values early in the
week, and prices held at €680/t and €955/t, respectively.
Palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil was flat at $1,015-1,025/
t. An offer for refined Pome oil cif ARA was at $1,100/t.
Argus Biofuels Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024

Sustainable polymers feedstocks Feedstock prices

Limited supply and petrochemicals demand supported Bid Ask ±

plastic-derived pyrolysis oil (PPO) prices in Europe. Rapeseed oil (RSO) €/t
Prices for refinery-grade PPO rose by €50/t at the high Contract
end to €1,200-1,250/t fca Europe in the week up to 24 May. RSO fob Dutch mill prompt 1,008.00 1,018.00 +5.00
Prices for PPO for direct blending into cracker feedstock RSO fob Dutch mill ASO 983.00 988.00 +6.00
were at €1,350-1,550/t fca Europe, an increase of €200/t RSO fob Dutch mill NDJ 995.00 997.00 +7.00

since Argus began assessing the product on 23 February. RSO fob Dutch mill FMA 990.00 998.00 +4.00
Sunflower oil (SFO) $/t
The fob ARA range used cooking oil (UCO)-based bion-
SFO fob northwest Europe 6 ports JAS 1,045.00 1,055.00 +2.50
aphtha price extended its downward trend, losing $10/t to
Used cooking oil (UCO) $/t
$1,665/t on Friday. Price indications have been around a
UCO fob ARA range 1,075.00 1,085.00 nc
$1,000/t premium to fossil naphtha, with co-processed mate-
UCO cif ARA 965.00 975.00 +15.00
rial slightly lower. Demand from petrochemicals producers is UCO ex-works ARA range €/t 1,010.00 1,020.00 nc
limited, with interest further downstream lacklustre. UCO ex-works ARA range 1,095.33 1,106.17 +0.12
Delivered Asian bionaphtha prices have been volatile in Tallow fca northwest Europe $/t
the second half of the month, but ended the fortnight higher Tallow categories 1 and 2 €/t 675.00 685.00 nc
by $30/t as Japanese naphtha recovered from more than Tallow categories 1 and 2 732.02 742.87 +0.08
three-month lows. Poor margins for regional naphtha crack- Tallow category 3 €/t 950.00 960.00 nc

ers weigh on demand for bio-based alternatives. Tallow category 3 1,030.26 1,041.10 +0.11
Palm oil mill effluent (POME) $/t
Biopropane prices have been wide in the fca ARA range
POME oil cif ARA 1,015.00 1,025.00 nc
market in the second half of May, with some indicating that
offers would fall well below the $1,000/t premium to entice RED biomethane (30 May) €/MWh
buying interest. Others reported discussions for small vol- Bid Ask
umes of tallow-based material above the $1,100/t premium
Germany VTP (THE)
mark. The UCO-based fca ARA range biopropane assessment
2024 65 75
was steady on the day at $1,545/t on Friday.
Premium Germany VTP (THE)
2024 115 130
Renewable gas
Danish and Dutch waste-based renewable guarantees of Renewable gas guarantees of origin (30 May)
origin (RGGO) prices diverged, while crop values held. Unit Bid Ask Mid ±
In Denmark, 2024 and 2025 waste RGGOs fell by €1.50/
Denmark
MWh to €18.50/MWh and €29.50/MWh. Values were also indi-
2023 crop €/MWh 10.00 11.00 10.50 nc
cated at lower levels after the assessment period. But waste 2024 crop €/MWh 11.00 12.00 11.50 nc
prices in the Netherlands climbed by €1/MWh to €22/MWh 2025 crop €/MWh 13.00 16.00 14.50 nc
and €32/MWh for 2024 and 2025, respectively. 2023 waste €/MWh 13.00 14.50 13.75 nc
Danish 2024 crop prices were flat at €11.50/MWh, as were 2024 waste €/MWh 16.50 20.50 18.50 -1.50
Dutch 2024 crop at €13/MWh. 2025 waste €/MWh 27.50 31.50 29.50 -1.50
In the UK, waste RGGOs held at £9.25/MWh for 2025 vin- Netherlands
tage, while crop product shed £0.75/MWh along the curve to 2023 crop €/MWh 11.00 12.00 11.50 nc

£4.75/MWh, £6/MWh and £8/MWh for 2023, 2024 and 2025. 2024 crop €/MWh 12.50 13.50 13.00 nc
2025 crop €/MWh 14.00 17.50 15.75 nc
In Germany, the fuel biomethane market is quiet as a
2023 waste €/MWh 14.00 15.50 14.75 nc
result of high inventories and persistently low price levels.
2024 waste €/MWh 20.00 24.00 22.00 +1.00
The high stock levels not only result in low import volumes
2025 waste €/MWh 30.00 34.00 32.00 +1.00
but also minimises their impact on domestic prices. This UK
coupled with flat prices for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission 2023 crop £/MWh 4.25 5.25 4.75 -0.75
reduction certificates meant that the price for unsubsidised 2024 crop £/MWh 5.50 6.50 6.00 -0.75
biomethane moved marginally. 2025 crop £/MWh 6.25 9.75 8.00 -0.75
The price of unsubsidised, advanced biomethane with 2023 waste £/MWh 8.00 9.00 8.50 nc
German origin, a carbon intensity (CI) of minus 100grCO2e/ 2024 waste £/MWh 8.00 10.50 9.25 nc

MJ and for delivery in 2024 increased slightly by €2.50/MWh 2025 waste £/MWh 10.00 12.00 11.00 nc

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Argus Biofuels Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024

week-on-week to €115-130/MWh as a result of firmer buy- Renewable fuel ticket prices

Bid Ask ±
ing interest. A deal for unsubsidised and certified biometh-
ane imported from Denmark with a CI of close to minus German GHG reduction obligation* €/t CO2e

100grCO2e/MJ for delivery in 2024 and 2025 closed between Conventional GHG quota
2023 95 105 nc
€95-100/MWh, while unsubsidised, certified and waste-based
2024 105 120 nc
biomethane in the Netherlands was at around €45/MWh.
Single-counting advanced GHG quota €/GJ
The price of biomethane with a CI of 10grCO2e/MJ was 2023 1.80 2.10 nc
flat at €65-75/MWh. The gas continues to be unattractive for 2024 1.80 2.10 nc
the fuel market, because it is traded around €90/MWh under Double-counting advanced GHG quota
Germany's Renewable Energy Act (EEG). 2023 210 230 nc
2024 230 250 nc
Other GHG quota
Renewable fuel tickets 2023 110 120 nc
Prices for UK and Dutch renewable fuel ticket firmed, while 2024 115 125 nc
values in Germany held for the ninth consecutive session. Annex IX part B GHG quota
In the UK, 2024 Other RTFCs dealt at 19.30p/RTFC on 2023 95 105 nc
Tuesday and 20p/RTFC on Wednesday, with bids and offers 2024 105 120 nc
Upstream emission reduction (UER) certificates
moving lower thereafter, settling in a 19.30-20p/RTFC range
2023 75 90 nc
by Friday, up by 0.35p/RTFC on the week. Crop kept a
2024 105 115 nc
0.50p/RTFC discount to Other, at 18.80-19.50p/RTFC. Netherlands renewable fuel unit** €/GJ
Interest for 2023 was subdued, with most obligated par- Conventional renewable fuel unit (HBE-C)
ties now covered for the year. The Other RTFC assessment 2024 4.90 5.90 nc
held at 18-18.80p/RTFC, unchanged since 13 May, while Crop Advanced renewable fuel unit (HBE-G)
2024 8.00 8.60 nc
was assessed at 17.50-18.30p/RTFC.
Other renewable fuel unit (HBE-O)
Prices in the Netherlands edged higher on the week, but
2024 7.95 8.55 nc
like-for-like purchases of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) Annex IX part B renewable fuel unit (HBE-IXB)
remain cheaper than buying HBEs. 2024 7.90 8.50 nc
HBE-Gs for 2024 changed hands at €8.35/GJ on Tuesday, *Treibhausgasminderungsverpflichtung **Hernieuwbare brandstofeenheden
with buying and selling interest then widening to a €8-8.60/ UK renewable transport fuel certificate p/RTFC
GJ range by Friday, up by €0.20/GJ on the week. HBE-Os and Crop-based RTFC

HBE-IXBs were at €7.95-8.55/GJ and €7.90-8.50/GJ, respec- 2023 17.50 18.30 nc

2024 18.80 19.50 nc
tively, up by €0.20/GJ. HBE-Cs were flat at €4.90-5.90/GJ.
Other RTFC
In Germany, prices for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission 2023 18.00 18.80 nc
reduction certificates held largely steady. 2024 19.30 20.00 nc
A trade for Other tickets 2024 closed early in the week,
at €120/t CO2e for between 5,000-10,000t CO2e. This set the
assessment for 2024 Other tickets at €115-125/t CO2e. Offers
led to a decrease in the prices for single-counting advanced
GHG certificates, which were down to €1.80-2.10/GJ, a drop RED crop/waste biodiesel & HVO fob ARA $/t
of €0.40/GJ on week. Double-counting advanced tickets
were flat at €230-250/tCO2e. Conventional GHG quota and
UCOME vs Fame 0
Annex IX part B GHG quota prices were flat at €105-120/
HVO (Class II) vs HVO (Class I)
tCO2. Prices for UER 2024 were at €105-115/tCO2e. 400
Trade for 2023 certificates was absent as many obligated
companies have finalised their mandate. Prices for single- 200
counting advanced credits converged with 2024 prices and hh
were also assessed at €1.80-2.10/GJ. All other certificates
prices were flat, with Conventional and Annex IX part B GHG 0
credits at €95-105/tCO2e, double-counting advanced 2023
tickets at €210-230/t CO2e and Other 2023 tickets at €110- -200
120/tCO2e. 2023 UER prices were assessed at €75-90/tCO2e. 01 Jun 27 Sep 25 Jan 24 May

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Argus Biofuels Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024

International biofuels / feedstock differentials and freight

China vs fob ARA range $/t

Ucome diff: 383.98
HVO (Class II) diff: 335.15
Freight 5kt: 200.00
Rotterdam

UCO bulk fob China vs exw NL $/t

Diff: 250.75
Freight 5kt: 220.00
Shanghai

HVO fob Sg vs fob ARA range $/t

Freight 40kt: 101.25

POME oil fob Mal vs cif ARA $/t

Port Klang Singapore
Diff: 260.00
Freight 3-5kt: 222.50

Asia-Pacific biofuels International biofuels spot prices $/t

A cargo of 10,000t of palm oil mill effluent (Pome)-based Bid Ask ±

hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) with very-low cold filter RED biodiesel
plugging point (CFPP) was discussed in the mid-$1,200s/t POME OME fob China 980.00 1,010.00 nc
fob China this week, with the seller to bear the cost of any BGME fob China 980.00 1,020.00 nc

potential future anti-dumping duties (ADDs) to the EU. UCOME fob China 980.00 1,020.00 nc
UCOME fob Strait of Malacca 1,050.00 1,090.00 nc
But offers elsewhere were higher, from $1,200/t for +15°C
PME fob Malaysia 835.00 1,040.00 +5.00
CFPP up to $1,300-1,350/t fob China for -10°C CFPP. But buy-
PME fob Indonesia 735.00 1,010.00 +5.00
ers at these levels were few and far between, especially if Biodiesel
they would have to pay any applicable ADDs. PME ex-works Indonesia 866.00 870.00 +8.00
The used cooking oil (UCO) market was stable. The best SME fob Argentina upriver (30 May) 1,059.11 1,076.74 +2.38
bid for regular bulk UCO with maximum 7pc free fatty acid Houston fob B100 (30 May) 1,213.76 1,243.66 -20.21

(FFA) remained at $840/t fob China, while most sellers con- Houston fob B100 (30 May) ¢/USG 405.94 415.94 -6.76
Marine biodiesel
tinued to defend offers at or above $860/t fob China.
B24 dob Singapore 720.00 725.00 -2.50
Buying interest for premium UCO from EU buyers hovered
RED hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO)
at around or below $880/t fob China because of recent
HVO fob China (Class II) 1,200.00 1,220.00 -70.00
increases in freight costs from China to the EU. Current HVO fob China (Class IV) 1,200.00 1,220.00 -70.00
freight for delivering bulk UCO from China to Amsterdam- HVO fob Singapore (Class I) netback 1,386.21 1,399.03 -11.73
Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) is above $200/t, according to one HVO fob Singapore (Class II) netback 1,437.49 1,450.31 -11.73
UCO buyer. But most premium UCO sellers continued to offer HVO fob Singapore (Class III) netback 1,405.44 1,418.26 -11.73
HVO fob Singapore (Class IV) netback 1,411.85 1,424.67 -11.73
at or above $900/t fob China, saying their breakeven level
RED Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)*
was around $890/t fob China.
SAF fob Singapore netback 1,760.87 1,774.03 -5.46
China's domestic UCO market was largely stable, with *Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA-SPK)
regular UCO deals concluded at around 6,850 yuan/t ($946/t)
Bionaphtha
dap with value-added tax (VAT). Brown grease collection
Bionaphtha cfr northeast Asia 1,780.00 1,800.00 nc
costs continued to hold at Yn6,100-6,200/t dap with VAT. Ethanol
fob Pakistan 740.00 800.00 -10.00
Indonesia pushing SAF agenda fob Pakistan (hydrous) 670.00 730.00 -10.00
The Indonesian government hopes to finalise a national cfr Mumbai 735.00 755.00 -5.00
cfr Philippines $/m³ 665.00 685.00 nc
roadmap and action plan for the industrial development of
B-grade cfr northeast Asia $/m³ 620.00 630.00 nc
sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by June. This sparked market
cfr China 540.00 725.00 nc

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Argus Biofuels Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024

sentiment that more feedstocks like UCO might be kept for International feedstock spot prices $/t
Bid Ask ±
domestic use and that export taxes could be imposed.
But these potential export regulatory measures will be RED feedstocks

more likely with higher domestic refinery capabilities to Brown grease dap China CNY/t 6,100.00 6,200.00 nc
Brown grease dap China 842.32 856.13 +0.88
take waste-based feedstocks and nothing is set in stone yet,
UCO dap China CNY/t 6,800.00 6,900.00 nc
market participants said.
UCO dap China 938.98 952.79 +0.98
High container freight rates and weak finished product
Premium UCO bulk fob China 880.00 900.00 nc
prices kept southeast Asian markets muted. Bulk UCO with
UCO bulk fob China 840.00 860.00 nc
lower metals and chlorides was offered at around $900-950/t
Premium UCO diff to UCO bulk fob China +40.00
fob Malaysia, while indicative and firm offers for regular-
UCO fob China 840.00 850.00 nc
specification product ranged from around $870-890/t.
UCO fob Indonesia 830.00 850.00 nc
The lowest offer for Vietnam-origin UCO in flexibags was
UCO bulk fob Strait of Malacca 845.00 870.00 nc
still around $865/t, although there were offers around $890-
UCO fob Vietnam 830.00 865.00 nc
900/t, keeping assessments stable.
POME oil fob Malaysia/Indonesia 750.00 770.00 nc
Indicative and firm offers for fob strait of Malacca bulk
Feedstocks
Ucome from a buyer and producer remained around $1,090- Palm olein Malaysia/Indonesia fob
1,100/t. Indicative bids were around $1,030-1,050/t fob. Prompt 895.00 905.00 +17.50
The palm oil methyl ester (PME) market saw a wider Jul 900.00 905.00 +15.00
Aug 897.50 905.00 +13.75
price spread in line with continued lacklustre demand on the
Sep 895.00 905.00 +7.50
back of firmer Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) futures. Arg SBO diff to CBOT 1st mth (30 May) ¢/lb -2.80 -2.00
Crude oil softened on the day, while higher than expect-
ed US gasoline stocks also weighed on the overall oil com-
plex. But firmer sunflower oil prices supported CPO demand. Freight (31 May) $/t
RED PME offers rose to $1,040/t fob Malaysia and $1,010/t Size '000t Bid Ask ±
fob Indonesia, but bids remained scarce even as the Argus- Malaysia - ARA
assessed RED PME forward physical prices softened. Palm oil 15-30 134.00 185.00 nc
There remained few bids in the Pome oil market but PME 3-5 195.00 200.00 nc
UCO/POME oil 3-5 220.00 225.00 nc
offers were up from the last reported $750-770/t range to
Malaysia - West Med
$770-790/t fob, tracking the palm oil supply side movement. Palm oil 15-30 130.00 175.00 nc
PME 3-5 185.00 190.00 nc
Thin margins drag on bionaphtha prices UCO/POME oil 3-5 210.00 215.00 nc
The bionaphtha and ethanol markets were quiet, with many Singapore - ARA
HVO 40 97.50 105.00 nc
chemical market participants at the Asia Petrochemical
China - ARA
Industry Conference (Apic) in South Korea this week. UCO 5 205.00 235.00 nc
Delivered Asian bionaphtha prices were volatile over the Ucome/HVO 5 190.00 210.00 nc
past two weeks, but ended the fortnight higher by $30/t as US - China
Ethanol 40-50 66.00 83.00 nc
regular Japanese naphtha recovered from more than three-
month lows. But weak margins for regional naphtha crackers
continue to weigh on demand for bio-based alternatives. Reference prices $/t
Weak demand from both the beverage and chemical sec- Month Settle ±
tors was weighing on prices in the Pakistani ethanol market,
CBOT soybean oil futures (16:30 London time)
with bids for extra neutral alcohol moving down by around
Jul 1,001.34 +0.22
$20/t to $670/t fob Karachi during the week. An 18,000t
Aug 1,007.73 +0.66
cargo of Pakistani ethanol was loading this week for ship-
Sep 1,010.38 +0.22
ment to the Mediterranean.
Malaysia palm oil futures
B-grade demand from northeast Asia was also persistent-
Jun 864.85 +18.27
ly weak, and the assessment was flat at $620-630/m³ cfr. A
Jul 866.98 +21.67
seller was offering at $680/m³, owing to higher freight costs
Aug 865.49 +19.76
which have risen by 8pc from Brazil to South Korea since
Bid Ask ±
October, but this was deemed unworkable by others.
Glycerine fob SE Asia 300.00 310.00 +12.50

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Argus Biofuels Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024

US biofuels Biodiesel spot price averages May to date $/t

Renewable identification number (RIN) credits rebounded on Bid Ask

Friday morning and supported the Argus Renewable Volume RED

Obligation (RVO). Palm OME fob ARA range 1,165.90 1,175.90
The RVO was last measured at 8.76¢/USG, up 0.13¢/USG. Rapeseed OME fob ARA range 1,211.05 1,221.05
Ethanol D6 RINs for 2024 last traded at 56.5¢/RIN, gaining Soya OME fob ARA range 1,192.90 1,202.90
0.625¢/RIN from yesterday’s close. FAME 0°C CFPP fob ARA range 1,190.90 1,200.90
Biomass-based diesel D4 RINs with 2024 vintage gained FAME -10°C CFPP fob ARA range 1,208.90 1,218.90
1.5¢/RIN as deals were struck at 57.5¢/RIN. UCOME fob ARA range 1,310.05 1,320.05
Current year cellulosic biofuel D3 RINs rose by 3.5¢/ Tallow OME fob ARA range 1,262.91 1,272.91
RIN as buyer interest rose to 320¢/RIN while seller interest POME OME fob ARA range 1,298.62 1,308.62
reached 321¢/RIN. Advanced FAME 0°C CFPP fob ARA range 1,405.05 1,415.05
US ethanol prices were mostly unchanged in a muted International
start to Friday’s session, while corn futures edged lower. RED POME OME fob China 964.21 988.95
Chicago Rule 11 railcars were up by 1.38¢/USG to 184¢/ RED UCOME fob China 980.00 1,020.00
USG, with buyer and seller interest with timing for this week RED UCOME fob Straits of Malacca 1,052.38 1,086.67
last heard at 181¢/USG and 187¢/USG. RED PME fob Malaysia 829.05 1,016.90
Prompt in-tank transfers at Kinder Morgan’s Argo termi- RED PME fob Indonesia 730.00 977.14

nal near Chicago held steady under a lack of fresh market in- SME fob Argentina (to 30 May) 1,055.97 1,075.81

dications. Similarly, front month barges at New York Harbor

HVO spot price averages May to date $/t
went unchanged, as no spot activity surfaced.
Bid Ask

Renewable feedstocks: USGC prices climb up RED

Renewable feedstocks traded at higher prices into the US HVO fob ARA range (Class I) 1,545.59 1,558.41
Gulf coast by the close of the previous session, despite a HVO fob ARA range (Class II) 1,593.52 1,606.34
drop in renewable diesel production margins. HVO fob ARA range (Class III) 1,570.62 1,583.44

Used cooking oil (UCO) railcar volumes traded into the US HVO fob ARA range (Class IV) 1,578.56 1,591.38

Gulf coast at 44¢/lb for June delivery, lifting the prices by International

0.5¢/lb. UCO prices in southeast locations also moved up by RED HVO fob China (Class II) 1,213.16 1,264.21

0.5¢/lb, tracking the strength at the US Gulf. RED HVO fob China (Class IV) 1,213.16 1,264.21

Prices for yellow grease (YG) were steady at the US Gulf RED HVO fob Singapore (Class I) 1,441.75 1,454.57

coast, after railcar volumes traded at 42¢/lb. RED HVO fob Singapore (Class II) 1,489.67 1,502.49

Bids for distillers corn oil (DCO) for railcar volumes into RED HVO fob Singapore (Class III) 1,466.78 1,479.60

the region were heard at 48¢/lb, but no deals were reported RED HVO fob Singapore (Class IV) 1,474.71 1,487.53

during the session. RED SAF* spot price averages May to date $/t
Choice white grease and poultry fat prices were assessed
Bid Ask
higher to reflect the overall strength in the wider feedstocks
complex. SAF fob ARA range 2,099.42 2,112.58

And the July CBOT soybean oil contract weakened by SAF cif NWE 2,155.19 2,168.34

0.16¢/lb to 45.72¢/lb from the previous session. SAF fob Singapore 1,995.58 2,008.74
*Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA-SPK)

Americas
Prompt discounts for soybean oil lots firmed through the Bionaphtha spot price averages May to date $/t

week as buyers moved to meet seller’s levels. Bid Ask

June physical markets closed at CBOT -2.4¢/lb, increasing Bionaphtha fob ARA range 1,694.52 1,704.52
by 0.7¢/lb between 28-30 May. Bionaphtha cfr northeast Asia range 1,767.38 1,786.90
In Chicago, July gained 0.2¢/lb to 45.72¢/lb in the same
period, mainly tracking crude palm oil gains. Biopropane spot price average May to date $/t
RED-certified biodiesel edged lower $4.24/t to $1,068/t Bid Ask
on a fob Rosario basis.
Biopropane fca ARA range 1,563.57 1,573.57

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Argus Biofuels Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024

NEWS

Three states ask EU to ramp up biofuels probe Ethanol spot price averages May to date $/t
Delegates from France, Germany and the Netherlands called Bid Ask

on the European Commission to intensify its investigation RED

into alleged Asian biofuel fraud during a meeting of EU Double-counting ethanol fob ARA range inc duty €/m³ 888.57 898.57
energy ministers on 30 May.
Double-counting ethanol fob ARA range inc duty 1,217.74 1,231.44
The three countries submitted a non-paper for consider-
T2 premium ethanol fob ARA range inc duty €/m³ 701.34 711.34
ation by the other ministers, claiming Asian exports to the
T2 premium ethanol fob ARA range inc duty 961.18 974.88
EU of biofuels produced from used cooking oil (UCO) and
T2 ethanol fob ARA range inc duty €/m³ 687.29 697.29
animal fats (tallow) increased substantially from the begin-
ning of 2023, and may have been produced from fraudulent T2 ethanol fob ARA range inc duty 941.94 955.64

and unsustainable raw materials. T2 ethanol diff to Eurobob non-oxy +87.95 +101.15

The European Commission said in June 2023 that it was International

investigating allegations of “possible fraud” related to biofu- fob Pakistan 769.52 800.00
el imports from China, following reports from an undisclosed
member state. Previously, the Germany federal environment Feedstocks spot price averages May to date $/t
ministry told Argus that it was aware of falsely-certified Bid Ask

biofuels circulating within the country. RED

Prices for used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome) fob ARA
RSO fob Dutch mill prompt €/t 984.14 993.86
hit a multi-year low at $1,176/t on 22 March last year, ac-
UCO fob ARA range 1,075.00 1,085.00
cording to Argus assessments.
UCO cif ARA 961.67 971.67
The European Commission launched an anti-dumping
UCO ex-works ARA range 1,090.21 1,101.02
investigation into Chinese-origin biodiesel in December,
Tallow (categories 1 and 2) fca northwest Europe 729.32 740.13
following a similar investigation launched in August into In-
donesian supply allegedly routed through China and the UK. Tallow (category 3) fca northwest Europe 1,029.46 1,040.28

The Chinese anti-dumping investigation focuses on whether POME oil cif ARA 1,009.52 1,019.52

market distortions rendered the use of domestic prices and International

costs inappropriate, rather than the sustainability creden- RED premium bulk UCO fob China 896.32 909.37
tials of the biofuels. RED bulk UCO fob Straits of Malacca 846.19 869.29
The three member states called on the European Com- RED UCO fob China 849.74 865.00
mission to intensify its investigation into Asian exporters, RED UCO fob Indonesia 832.86 852.86
including to identify systemic weakness and put in place
RED UCO fob Vietnam 839.05 861.90
corrective actions against fraud in tandem with member
RED bulk UCO fob China 841.84 857.42
states. They proposed that sustainability certification for
RED POME oil fob Malaysia/Indonesia 759.05 776.90
biofuels produced in Asia be rejected if the producers refuse
access to inspecting agents of “competent authorities of the
member states”. Database — that represents a paradigm shift in the verifica-
After the energy ministers' meeting, European energy tion of sustainability requirements compliance,” she added.
commissioner Kadri Simson pointed out that the commission Belgian energy minister Tinne Van der Straetan said
does not have the mandate "to trace sources" in the third transparency on the origins of feedstocks is needed. "It’s al-
countries. ways the same issue with biofuels, it’s the competition that
"I introduced to ministers the next steps on biofuels, and we have between food and the use for energy. And there’s a
these were the plan to further strengthen the function of consensus around the table that we need to have more clar-
them implementing regulation of certification,” she said. ity along the whole value chain."
“We will also launch a working group with member states By Simone Burgin
in the context of the Committee of the Sustainability of
Biofuels, Bioliquids and Biomass Fuels. And I also shared my La Mede delivers first HVO cargo after upgrade
assessment that since we have implemented sustainability TotalEnergies' 500,000 t/yr hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO)
frameworks for biofuels — we do have now have the Union has delivered its first cargo following an upgrade to the unit

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Argus Biofuels
which took over two months to complete. The 22,500dwt
Pacifico unloaded around 10,000t of HVO at Antwerp's Zenith
Energy terminal on 30 May, according to Argus tracking.
The shipment was the first seaborne HVO cargo to leave
La Mede since the unit had a planned turnaround in January-
April aimed at upgrading the plant to run solely on waste
oils (UCO) and animal fats (tallow).
After patchy performance since its opening in 2019 the
refitted La Mede joins other Mediterranean HVO units,
also performing well. Integrated Italian oil firm Eni said its
350,000 t/yr Venice and 650,000 t/yr Gela plants are running
at over 90pc of nameplate capacity, the highest yet.
Repsol's new 250,000 t/yr unit at Cartagena started up
slightly later than expected in the first quarter this year, but
is producing well, sending cargoes for delivery to Huelva.
In January-May seaborne feedstock deliveries to La Mede
have been close to 40,000t of tallow, nearly 25,000t of UCO
and 2,300t of rapeseed oil, according to Argus tracking,
in line with energy ministry data that shows 46pc of HVO
blended in France this year — including imports — was made
from tallow, 15pc from UCO and 6pc from rapeseed. The
remainder includes industrial wastes, other waste fats and
palm oil mill effluent (Pome).
La Mede started up in 2019 configured to run mainly
on imported palm oil. But Paris banned the use of palm in
France's biofuels mix in 2019, and any palm-based HVO pro-
duced at La Mede had to be exported in 2020-22, almost all
to Germany and the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA)
region. TotalEnergies subsequently ended its use of palm oil
Argus Biofuels Outlook
A monthly service presenting Argus short-term
demand and price forecasts for key biofuels,
feedstocks and environmental credits
Biodiesel | Ethanol | Renewable diesel/HVO |
SAF | Feedstocks | RINs | LCFS
Try it out – Explore the Argus Biofuels Outlook in more detail »
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Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024
and La Mede received no palm feedstock in 2023. La Mede
shipped out a total of just over 115,000t of HVO last year.
Some 85,000t was exported and 30,000t went to French
destinations, a sharp fall from 155,000t of seaborne cargoes
in 2022, all of which were exports.
Last year the plant received 135,000t of seaborne tallow,
65,000t of UCO and 75,000t of rapeseed oil.
By Adam Porter
Green steel, SAF likely first H2 buyers in UAE: Masdar
UAE renewables and green hydrogen company Masdar
expects output from its first hydrogen projects to be used in
the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and green
steel, as these face fewer logistical barriers than shipping
and cracking ammonia back to hydrogen.
The company aims to take final investment decisions
(FIDs) on hydrogen projects targeting these sectors within
the next 6-18 months and could start production around
three years later, its director of hydrogen business develop-
ment and commercial, Andreas Bieringer, told Argus.
“We are working on green steel and would like to see
some announcement to be made soon, also on sustainable
aviation fuel, that’s definitely what will go first in the UAE,”
he said.
Masdar has a 2024 pilot for a 2.1MW electrolyser to
prove the concept of using hydrogen in direct reduction of
iron alongside Emirates Steel Arkan. The firm also trialled
methanol-to-jet last year, which offers a path to e-SAF in the
future. And it is developing the region’s first SAF using re-
Argus Biofuels
newable hydrogen and municipal solid waste. Projects where
hydrogen or derivatives can be used directly — such as green
steel, marine fuels and e-SAF — and the decarbonisation of
industrial processes seem to be slightly ahead of the curve
in general, Bieringer said.
“These are things where we can get firm offtake directly
because it takes out the problem of how we ship the product
to offtake markets where the logistic supply chains are not
ready yet,” Bieringer said. “That’s one of the uncertainties
we have now. Like port infrastructure, cracking for am-
monia, pipelines in Europe — all this needs to be advanced
much faster,” he added.
Masdar’s next step for its UAE projects is to sign firm off-
take deals. “Structuring intelligent offtake agreements” that
share the risk fairly on both sides is the “art everyone tries
to figure out”, he said. The company also needs to finalise
the infrastructure to underpin the projects, but this should
be more straightforward than long-distance shipping.
At the end of last year, Abu Dhabi launched its low-
carbon hydrogen policy. It focuses on creating hydrogen “oa-
ses” and clean electricity parks to attract investment and
increase operational efficiencies. Masdar said it is actively
supporting the policy’s implementation.
Outside of the UAE, Masdar is targeting projects in Scan-
dinavia and the Iberian Peninsula. These are “very advanced
front-end engineering designs” and are also focusing on
logistically-easy offtake sectors, Bieringer said.
Masdar appears to have reshuffled the order of its proj-
ect pipeline. One of the first hydrogen projects it announced
was a 200MW renewable ammonia project with fertiliser
company Fertiglobe in Ruwais.
This had targeted FID in 2023 and start up in 2025, but
the timelines appear to have changed. The company had
also hoped to start operating a 2GW renewable ammonia
project in Egypt in 2026, but this also looks like a stretch
since no FID has been taken yet.
Many companies across the hydrogen industry have rolled
back on the initial targets they set out — partly because
of tough macroeconomic conditions but it also reflects a
recognition that scaling up hydrogen might be tougher than
first thought. Even with its own plans changing, Masdar has
not abandoned its target to produce 1mn t/yr of renewable
hydrogen, but Bieringer recognised it could be a stretch to
get there by 2030.
“We would definitely want to do it within a decade, 2030
is the guiding principle. If it maybe takes a little bit longer,
I don't think it'd be too dramatic,” he said. “The direction
is still there, that's what you see in the market studies. The
drive towards green hydrogen is unchanged”.
By Aidan Lea
Copyright © 2024 Argus Media group Page 12 of 14
Licensed to: Alvina Fu, Argus Media Limited (London)
Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024
Indonesia to finalise roadmap to develop SAF by June
The Indonesia government hopes to finalise a national
roadmap and action plan for the industrial development of
sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by June.
The roadmap and proposed action plan consists of three
main pillars, demand, supply and enablers, according to the
Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment
on 29 May. This involves ensuring raw material availability,
certainty of SAF offtake, and mechanisms to reduce impact
on prices, among other aims.
The country also plans to announce a presidential regula-
tion related to the SAF roadmap on the sidelines of the Bali
International Air Show in September, with no further details
disclosed.
The action plan is prepared with a 2025-30 timeline and
will be reviewed and updated periodically. The demand
pillar was discussed previously, and the ministry is holding a
meeting on 31 May to discuss the supply and enablers pillars.
The roadmap currently focuses on used cooking oil (UCO)
and crude palm oil (CPO) residue as SAF feedstocks. Sea-
weed is also a potential raw material to be researched, said
Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment
Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan on 29 May.
“SAF is the most effective solution” to reduce carbon
emissions, based on various data, studies, and increasing
aviation activity, said Luhut.
The government might choose to keep more feedstocks
like UCO domestically, given the country’s aims to produce
more SAF, and potentially impose export taxes, raise export
levies or adjust domestic market obligations (DMO), market
participants said. But they noted these measures to regulate
exports will be more likely with higher domestic refinery
capabilities to take waste-based feedstocks, and nothing is
concrete for now.
Pertamina
State-owned oil company Pertamina plans to power a plane
with a small amount of imported blended SAF during the Bali
International Air Show in September, said a company source.
The SAF will be UCO-based and consist of around 15pc SAF
blended with fossil jet fuel. Pertamina previously supplied
Extension of 2023 German biofuel quota
assessment
Argus will assess prices for the German biofuel quota for
the 2023 compliance year until 15 June 2024. This is in
line with the extension by two months of the compliance
deadline for the German 2023 GHG reduction mandate.
The German customs office did not give a reason for the
extension.
Argus Biofuels
2.4pc SAF-blended jet fuel to national airline Garuda
Indonesia, and the country’s first successful test flight using
a commercial aircraft was conducted on 26 October 2023.
Pertamina previously produced SAF and renewable
diesel at its Cilacap and Dumai refineries, but using refined,
bleached and deodorised palm oil. It plans to bring the
second phase of its Cilacap "green refinery" on line in 2026’s
fourth quarter, which will use palm and waste-based feed-
stocks such as UCO and palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil to
produce around 132,000 t/yr of SAF.
Indonesia exported an average of 235,800 t/yr of UCO
between 2019-23, according to GTT data. Malaysia was the
top recipient of volumes as the country is also a main loca-
tion where UCO is aggregated before beingexported else-
where, followed by the Netherlands and Singapore.
By Sarah Giam
Japanese UCO exports hold high in April
Japanese used cooking oil (UCO) exports remained high
in April, marking a third straight month of year-on-year
increases mainly on the back of firm demand from Singapore.
Japan exported around 11,200t of UCO in April, up by
52pc from a year earlier, according to preliminary data
released on 30 May by the finance ministry. But April exports
were slightly lower from 11,300t in March.
Exports to Singapore, Japan’s biggest destination for its
UCO, rose to 6,100t in April, up by 50pc on a year earlier and
by 2pc from the previous month.
UCO demand in Singapore is expected to stay firm, as the
country is increasing production of sustainable aviation fuel
(SAF) that uses UCO as its feedstock. SAF use will be manda-
tory for flights departing Singapore from 2026, with a SAF
levy also to be imposed.
Exports to Malaysia also rose to 989t in April, up from
the previous year’s 103t, while shipments to European coun-
tries more than doubled to 1,900t from 870t. But exports
to South Korea, Japan’s second-largest buyer, fell by 4pc to
2,200t during the period.
Japan’s UCO export value in April averaged $855/t on a
fob Japan basis, down by 26pc from a year earlier. Export
costs for Singapore fell by 30pc to an average of $843/t on
the same basis.
Japanese firms are stepping up efforts to secure UCO for
domestic SAF production, despite the firm export demand,
as the government is to mandate that SAF makes up at
least 10pc of total jet fuel consumption by volume by 2030.
This means the country’s SAF demand is expected to reach
1.71bn l/yr by then.
Japanese engineering firm JGC, biodiesel producer Revo
International and SAF joint venture Saffaire Sky Energy,
Copyright © 2024 Argus Media group Page 13 of 14
Licensed to: Alvina Fu, Argus Media Limited (London)
Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024
which was created by JGC, Revo and refiner Cosmo Oil in No-
vember 2022, said on 31 May that the companies had agreed
with domestic food firm Dandadan to buy an unspecified
amount of UCO from its restaurants for SAF production.
Saffaire Sky Energy aims to produce 30,000 kilolitre/
yr (517 b/d) of SAF from domestic UCO at Cosmo Oil’s Sakai
plant in west Japan’s Osaka prefecture, with its initial pro-
duction targeted to start sometime in the second half of the
April 2024-March 2025 fiscal year or early 2025-26.
By Motoko Hasegawa
Malaysia's palm oil exports slip back in April
Malaysia's April palm oil exports rose from a year earlier
but fell against the previous month to 1.2mn t, according to
Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data.
„ Exports rose by 13.5pc from a year earlier but January-
April shipments rose by 2pc from 4.8mn t to 4.9mn t.
„ Exports were down by 7pc against a month earlier with
Bursa Malaysia crude palm oil futures firming in the second
half of March with production issues limiting supplies, likely
weighing on April exports.
„ Malaysian palm oil stocks hit a 10-month low in March as
the harvest had just started to recover from the lull season.
„ Firmer palm oil prices weighed on demand, spurring de-
mand for rival vegetable oils.
By Deborah Sun
Argus North American
Biofuels, LCFS & Carbon
Markets Summit
September 16-18, 2024
Monterey, CA, US
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Argus Biofuels Issue 24-108 | Friday 31 May 2024

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