EcoGeog Lecture Chapter 5

ĐẠI HỌC QUỐC GIA HÀ NỘI
TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ
Economic Geography
FDE 3009
Dr. NGUYEN Dinh Tien – VNU-UEB

Email: nguyendinhtien@vnu.edu.vn
Hà Nội, 2023
Nguyen Dinh Tien - VNU-UEB. Email:
nguyendinhtien@vnu.edu.vn
WELCOME TO VIETNAM!
Socialist Republic of Vietnam Area: 331.690km2

Population: 100 million (2023)
Capital: Hanoi Population density: 322 persons/km2
Percent Urban: 42%
Percent Rural: 58%
5.1. Spatial pattern of
Vietnam economy
• About three quarters of the country is
covered by mountains and plateaus.
Flatlands are mostly limited to the coastal
Red River and Mekong deltas
• Since the Doi Moi reforms of 1986, Viet
Nam has embarked on a path towards a
market economy and openness
Vietnam has 63 provinces and cities (5 cities)
Vietnam has 8 ecological zones
• Viet Nam is administratively
divided into three regions
(northern, central, and
southern) and eight socio-
economic sub-regions.
• Map of
Northern
provinces
• South Centre Coast:
• 8 provinces (Da
Nang, Quang Nam,
Quang Ngai, Binh
Dinh, Phu Yen,
Khanh Hoa, Ninh
Thuan, Binh Thuan
Question
• Where is the narrowest place on the map of Vietnam?
• Which province is largest in Vietnam?
Vietnam Growth Economy
What are the KEY drivers of Economic Growth?

Vietnam’s Top 10 Export Partners
Vietnam’s top 10 export partners in

2019:
United States (USD 61.4 billion),
China (USD 41.3 billion),
Japan (USD 20.4 billion),
South Korea (USD 19.7 billion),
Hong Kong (USD 7.1 billion),
Netherlands (USD 6.8 billion),
India (USD 6.6 billion),
Germany (USD 6.5 billion),
United Kingdom (USD 5.7 billion)
and Thailand (USD 5.0 billion).
Short and Long run Barrier to Growth in Vietnam

VIETNAM SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2021 - 2030
1 Existing country development resources

- Population and labor
- Natural resources: land, minerals, water sources, forests, seas, etc.
- Economic geography and geopolitics
2 Evaluate all aspects of national development capacity
-Economic capacity
- Natural resources
- Social resources
- Institutional capacity
- National defense, security and foreign affairs capacity
(1). The macroeconomy is stable, the economic growth rate is quite high, but did not meet the
targets and tends to decrease gradually compared to the previous strategic periods.
GDP GDP per TFP's contribution Growth rate of

growth capita to GDP growth labor
rate (%) (USD) (%) productivity/y
ear (%)
2011-2015 5.9 1,330 (2010) 33.6 4.3
2016-2019 6.8 41.1 5.8
2020 2.5 -
2011-2020 5.9 2,750 (2020) 37.5 -
According to the World Bank and the UN Statistics Division, Vietnam's growth in the
period 2011 - 2017 was higher than the average rate of low-middle-income countries
(5.4%) and Southeast Asian nations (5%). However, in the period 2011 - 2020, the average GDP
growth is about 5.9%/year, lower than the Strategy target of 7-8%/year and lower than the two previous
periods (the first strategy 1991 - 2000, average GDP growth was 7.56%/year and the second strategy 2001-
2010, the figure was 7.26%/year. GDP per capita in 2020 will increase about 1,420 USD compared with that in
2010, much lower than other countries in the region (In 2018 compared with that in 2010, Singapore increased
by 11,837 USD, South Korea: 5,004 USD, China: 3,256 USD…).
(2). Implementation of economic restructuring associated with the growth model innovation
has gained positive results, but slowly while the growth mode has not changed clearly.
Science, technology and innovation have not really become the driving force to improve
labor productivity, competitiveness, and socio-economic development.
(3). The implementation of three strategic breakthroughs (institutions, human resources and
infrastructure) has concentrated resources, and witnessed achievements. But looking at the
whole picture it is still slow; the task of creating a foundation so that by 2020, Vietnam
basically becomes a modern industrial country, which has not yet met the set target.
(4). Regional development, marine and urban economy, and new rural development have
gained achievements, but there are still many limitations and weaknesses.
(5). The implementation of the cultural, social and human development goals recorded a
progress but also revealed many limitations.
32
(6). Resource management, protection and improvement of environmental
quality, proactive response to climate change, natural disaster prevention have
been paid more attention; but do not meet the requirements
(7). State management, administrative reform, anti-corruption and waste have
changed remarkably, but there is still much to be done.
(8). The combination of economic development with national defense, security
and foreign affairs, international integration is increasing and more effective.
(9) Overall assessment, causes and lessons learned
33
II. Strategic content 2021-2030
The main tasks of this section are:

- Clearly identify the main directions of the strategy
- Strategic Objectives
- Major solutions to achieving the Strategic Objectives
34
Strategic content 2021-2030
1 Context and perspective of socio-economic development in the 2021 - 2030 period
a) International background:
- Peace, cooperation, association and development are still the main trends
- The Covid-19 pandemic has changed complicated, causing global economic crisis and recession
- Sustainable development becomes a global trend; digital economy, circular economy, green growth are the
development models chosen by many countries
- Science, technology, innovation and the 4th Industrial Revolution are changing rapidly, breaking through,
causing a wide and multidimensional impact on a global scale; promote the development of the digital
economy and digital society.
- The trend of urbanization and development of smart city is increasing.
- The Asia-Pacific region continues to be an important driving force of the global economy
- The situation of the East Sea is becoming more and more complicated, unpredictable, and seriously
threatens the peace and stability of the region and investment and development environment. 35
b). Domestic background
- After nearly 35 years of Doi Moi, Vietnam’s position and power has grown much stronger.
- Aspiration for a prosperous Vietnam, self-reliant and resilient will is the endogenous strength for the
country to develop rapidly and sustainably in the coming time.
- However, the economy still faced shortcomings, limitations and potential risks, and the risk of lagging is
still great.
- The process of urbanization increase rapidly, creating great pressure on the needs of infrastructure
development and treatment of environmental pollution.
- The Covid-19 pandemic could cause negative impact, lasting into the early years of the Strategy period; the
requirement not only to neutralize risks, overcome difficulties and challenges, but also be proactive with new
opportunities, while the world economic structure and global governance are reshaped, modes of production,
trading, consumption and social life changed after the pandemic.
36
Viewpoint of socio-economic development in the 2021 - 2030 period

1 Reforming and transformation.
2 Rapid and sustainable development is mainly based on science and technology,
innovation and digital improving the quality of a complete, synchronous, modern,
socialist-oriented market economy institution, effective and efficient law integration and
enforcement is a prerequisite for country development.
3 Arousing aspirations for national development, self-reliance and promoting the
strength of the great national solidarity and develop the country.
4 Building an autonomous economy must be based on mastering technology and
proactively integrating into and diversifying markets, improving the economy's adaptive
capacity.
5 Resolutely and persistently in the fight to protect national independence, sovereignty,
unity and territorial integrity; build an orderly, disciplined and safe society, ensure the
peaceful and happy life of the people. 37
2 Socio-economic development targets during period 2021 - 2030

a). Overall objectives
Strategy 2021-2030 Strategy 2011-2020 Strategy 2001-2010
By 2030, it will be a By 2020, Vietnam Bring our country out of
developing country with will basically underdevelopment group; to
modern industries and high become a modern create a foundation for
average income; By 2045, it industrial country. basically a modern
will become a developed industrialized country by 2020.
country with high income.
- According to UNIDO: Developing and emerging industrial economies have the following criteria: Manufacturing Value Added per capita (MVA) is from 1,000 - 2,500 USD or the value of
manufacturing industry accounts for over 0.5% of the total value of global manufacturing industry. Industrialized economies are considered ‘industrialized’ if its adjusted MVA per capita exceeds
2,500 international dollars (PPP) or GDP per capita exceeds 20,0000 international dollars (PPP). In the ASEAN region, the industrial country are Malaysia and Singapore, the industrialized country
are Indonesia and Thailand. The MVA per capita of Vietnam is estimated at about 900 USD by 2020, is expected to reach over 2,000 USD by 2030, and has become an industrial country (in the range
of 1,000 - 2,500 USD).
- According to the World Bank classification applicable to the fiscal year 2020-2021, the group of middle-income countries has an
average income per capita of between 4,046 USD and 12,535 USD. The high average income threshold in the past 10 years ranges
from 3,856 USD to 4,126 USD, 3,856 USD in 2010, 4,126 USD in 2015, 3,996 USD in 2020, and 4,046 USD in 2021.
38
Annual Household Income per
Capita

b). Key indicators

a) Economics
- The growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is about 7%/year on average; GDP per capita at current
prices by 2030 will reach about 7,500 USD.
- The proportion of the manufacturing industry will reach about 30% of GDP, the digital economy will reach
about 30% of GDP.
- The urbanization rate will reach over 50%.
- Total investment will reach 33-35% of GDP; public debt will not exceed 60% of GDP.
- The contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth will reach 50%.
- The social labor productivity growth rate will reach over 6.5%/year.
- Reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 1 - 1.5%/year.
(According to the re-evaluation of the economic size of the General Statistics Office, GDP in 2019 was 332 billion USD, GDP per capita
was 3,442 USD, in 2020 it is expected to reach about 340 billion USD (7.99 million billion VND) and GDP per capita is about 3,490
USD. The economic indicators calculated for the socio-economic development strategy 2021-2030 and the 5-year socio-economic
development direction 2021-2025 are based on revalued data.) 40
b). Key indicators (con’t)
b) Social aspect
- Human development index (HDI) will reach over 0.7.
- Average life expectancy will reach 75 years, in which the minimum life expectancy reaches 68 years.
- The rate of trained workers with degrees and certificates will reach 35-40%.
- Labor working in the agricultural sector will decrease to less than 20% of the total labor force of the economy.
c) Environment
- The forest coverage rate is stable at 42-43%.
- The rate of treatment and reuse of wastewater discharged into the river basin environment will reach over 70%.
- Reduce at least 8% of greenhouse gas emissions.
- 100% of production and business establishments meet environmental standards.
- Increase the area of marine and coastal protected areas to 3-5% of the national marine area. Compared with normal
development scenario (scenario without by deliberate actions to mitigate emissions). 41
3 Strategic breakthroughs, tasks and solutions mainly for socio-economic
development during period 2021 - 2030
a). Strategic Breakthroughs
1 Improve the quality of a complete, synchronous, modern and integrated socialist-oriented

market economy institution, focusing on markets for factors of production, especially the
market of rights, land use, science and technology.
2 Continue to comprehensively developing human resources, science, technology,

innovation associated with arousing aspirations for national development, national pride,
self-reliance and promoting cultural values and Vietnamese citizen.
3 Continue to improving synchronous and modern socio-economic infrastructure system,

focusing on the development of key infrastructure in transport, energy, information
technology, big cities, and infrastructure and respond to climate change.
42
b). Main tasks and solutions of the socio-economic development for 2021 - 2030
1 Focus on improving the quality of the institution of the socialist-oriented market economy, and better settling relations between the
State, the market and the society.
2 Strongly develop science, technology and innovation in order to make a breakthrough to improve productivity, quality, efficiency
and competitiveness of the economy
3 To develop human resources, education and training to meet the high-quality human resource requirements of the 4th Industrial
Revolution and international integration.
4 To step up industrialization, modernization, and restructure the economy in association with renewing the growth model, ensuring
the reality and efficiency; developing the digital economy; promote rapid and sustainable growth on the basis of macroeconomic
stability
5 To develop infrastructure, regional economy, marine economy, using urban areas as the driving force for regional development and
43
promoting the a new rural development.
b). Main tasks and solutions of the socio-economic development for 2021 - 2030(con’t)
6 Development of culture and society, realization of social progress and equity; constantly improve people's
material and spiritual life
7 Managing and using resources effectively; enhancing environmental protection and response to climate change,
preventing, combating and mitigating natural disasters
8 To consolidate and strengthen national defense, ensure national security, maintain social order and safety;
resolutely and persistently in the fight to firmly protect national independence, sovereignty, unity and territorial
integrity
9 Improve the efficiency of foreign affairs, integration, and position and reputation of Vietnam in the
international arena
10 Continue to building the socialist rule-of-law State, development, integrity and action; to step up the
prevention and fight against corruption, saving practice, fight wastefulness, and create a breakthrough in
administrative reform
44
Vietnam economic growth potential
3 Economic Potential
+ Green economy
+ Circular economy
+ Digital economy
+ Happiness Index
...
45
END!


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ĐẠI HỌC QUỐC GIA HÀ NỘI

TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ

Dr. NGUYEN Dinh Tien – VNU-UEB

Socialist Republic of Vietnam Area: 331.690km2

Nguyen Dinh Tien - VNU-UEB. Email:

Vietnam’s top 10 export partners in

Nguyen Dinh Tien - VNU-UEB. Email:

1 Existing country development resources

GDP GDP per TFP's contribution Growth rate of

The main tasks of this section are:

1 Context and perspective of socio-economic development in the 2021 - 2030 period

Viewpoint of socio-economic development in the 2021 - 2030 period

2 Socio-economic development targets during period 2021 - 2030

Nguyen Dinh Tien - VNU-UEB. Email:

b). Key indicators

a). Strategic Breakthroughs

1 Improve the quality of a complete, synchronous, modern and integrated socialist-oriented

2 Continue to comprehensively developing human resources, science, technology,

3 Continue to improving synchronous and modern socio-economic infrastructure system,

Nguyen Dinh Tien - VNU-UEB. Email:

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