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Problem Forecasting - 2 - Solved
Problem Forecasting - 2 - Solved
Forecast demand of each of the products for year 2020 and 2021 by using
appropriate methods. (If you need, then consider a smoothing constant = 0.7)
For CB
Naïve technique
For BK
Incremental Addition
For BN
Simple average
Forecast for 2020 = (33 + 20 +36 + 25 + 29)/5 = 27.67 unit
Simple avg 2021 = 27.67 units
Moving Average
Weighted Average
Business environment for the year 2020 would be 50% like 2019, 30% like 2018
and 20% like 2017
Forecast for the year 2020 = 0.5 x 29 + 0.3 x 25 +0.2 x 36 = 14.5 + 7.5 + 7.2
= 29.2
For TB
Y = mX + c
Y = Demand
X = time (year)
∑Y , sum of Y = 565
∑XY = 2537
n=7
m = [∑X∑Y – n x ∑XY]/[( ∑X)2 – n x ∑X2]
= 9.89
c = [∑Y – m x ∑X]/n
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
CH (A) 50 58 54 69 64 58 55 57
F 50 50 55.6 54.5 64.7 64.2 59.9 56.4 56.8 56.26
AD
8 1.6 14.5 0.7 6.2 4.9 0.6
(IA-FI)
Forecasting error
Adjusted forecast for the year 2020 = 56.8 ± 5.07 (51.73 – 61.87)
Adjusted forecast for the year 2021 = 56.26 ± 5.07 (51.19 – 61.33)
2. Demand history of five different products of a company is shown below.
Products 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
X 27 23 32 26 30
Y 50 47
Z 38 42 55 57 65 70 76
S 33 29 25 22
T 40 36 42 32 30 44 48 38