RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

INDEX:

1. Methodology
1.2 Probability index
1.2 Severity index (illness or injury)
1.2 Severity index (productivity of operation)
1.2 Severity index (damage to environment)
1.2 Severity index (cost effect)
1.2 Frequency index

2. Risk value
3.1 Maximum value

1 METHODOLOGY
The methodology being used, is based upon the principle that the RISK VALUE that is expressed as a
percentage (%), consists of the following entities –

• PROBABILITY INDEX, which is the likelihood that exposure to a danger will occur.
• SEVERITY INDEX, which is the degree in which the hazard will effect the following –
o Injury or illness,
o Productivity of the operation,
o The environment, and
o The cost involved.
• FREQUENCY INDEX, which is the rate at which the hazard would be present, or also how often
the hazard would be present.

Each main and sub-entity has a minimum and a maximum value as indicated in the different Tables
below.

1.1 PROBABILITY INDEX

VALUE DESCRIPTION OF PROBABILITY VALUES

5 ALMOST CERTAIN or INEVITABLE
4 PROBABLE
3 IMPROBABLE
2 LESS THAN EVEN CHANCE
1 HIGHLY IMPROBABLE
0 NOT PROBABLE

1.2 SEVERITY INDEX (ILLNESS OR DISEASE)

VALUE THE EFFECT THAT A HAZARD MIGHT HAVE w.r.t. AN ILLNESS OR DISEASE
5 FATAL
4 PERMANENT TO SLIGHT DISABILITY
3 ≥ 14 DAYS WITH COMPLETE RECOVERY
2 MEDICAL ATTENTION. ≤14 DAY WITH COMPLETE RECOVERY
1 FIRST AID ONLY.
0 NEAR MISS

Sensitivity Label: General

1.3 SEVERITY INDEX (PRODUCTIVITY OF OPERATION)

VALUE THE EFFECT THAT A HAZARD MIGHT HAVE ON THE PRODUCTIVITY

5 NO PRODUCTION
4 LOSS OF 1 MONTH’S OR MORE PRODUCTION
3 LOSS OF 1 WEEK’S PRODUCTION
2 LOSS OF 1 DAY’S PRODUCTION
1 LOSS OF 1 MAN-SHIFT
0 NO LOSS TIME

1.4 SEVERITY INDEX (EFFECT ON THE ENVIRONMENT)

VALUE THE EFFECT THAT A HAZARD MIGHT HAVE ON THE ENVIRONMENT

5 PERMANENT EFFECT
4 LONG TERM EFFECT – MORE THAN 2 YEARS
3 MEDIUM EFFECT – 6 MONTHS TO 1 YEAR
2 SHORT TERM EFFECT – 1 DAY TO 6 MONTHS
1 INSIGNIFICANT EFFECT
0 NO ASPECT OR IMPACT

1.5 SEVERITY INDEX (COST EFFECT)

VALUE THE COST EFFECT THAT A HAZARD MIGHT HAVE

5 MORE THAN R500 000
4 R100 000 to R499 999
3 R10 000 to R99 999
2 R1 000 to R9 999
1 R0 to R999
0 NO COST INVOLVED

1.6 FREQUENCY INDEX

VALUE THE RATE AT WHICH A HAZARD WOULD BE PRESENT

5 HAZARD IS PERMANENTLY PRESENT
4 HAZARD ARISES ONCE A WEEK
3 HAZARD ARISES ONCE A MONTH
2 HAZARD ARISES ONCE A YEAR
1 HAZARD ARISES EVERY 5 YEARS
0 NO HAZARD EXIST

Sensitivity Label: General

2 RISK VALUE
The RISK VALUE expressed as a percentage (%), is calculated as follow –
• RISK VALUE =(P (PROBABILITY) X S (SEVERITY) X F (FREQUENCY) ÷ MAXIMUM
VALUE) x 100

The RISK VALUE is then categorized either as an A, B, C, D, E or F which has the relevant meaning
as indicated in the Table below –

CATEGO PRIORITY OF ACTION TO BE TAKEN

A – 75 to IMMEDIATE
B – 60% to WITHIN 1 WEEK
C – 45 to WITHIN 1 MONTH
D – 30% to WITHIN 6 MONTHS
E – 15% to WITHIN 12 MONTHS
F – 0% - 14% AS REASONABLE

Recommended actions to be taken as indicated in the Table below –

CATEGO ACTION TO BE TAKEN

A – 75 to TRAINING, SWP & DETAILED ACTION PLAN
B – 60% to TRAINING, SWP & DETAILED ACTION PLAN
C – 45 to TRAINING, SWP, REGISTERS & SCHEDULES
D – 30% to TRAINING & SOP
E – 15% to TRAINING
F – 0% - 14% TRAINING AS REASONABLE

2.1 MAXIMUM VALUE

The maximum value cannot vary. The values of the different elements applicable in the SEVERITY INDEX
are added together, and therefore the maximum value could only be twenty (20). All elements will be
used for PROBABILITY INDEX, SEVERITY INDEX AND FREQUENCY INDEX at all times

Therefore, in order to calculate the RISK VALUE, the maximum figure to divided by could ONLY be –

• 500 as a constant value - that is 5 (maximum for P) X 20 (maximum for S – all five elements are
present) X 5 (maximum for F)

• PROBABILITY VALUE X SEVERITY “TOTAL” [ILLNESS OR DISEASE + PRODUCTIVITY OF

OPERATION + EFFECT ON THE ENVIRONMENT + COST EFFECT = SEVERITY VALUE] X
FREQUENCY VALUE ÷ 500 = TOTAL SCORE (%)

Sensitivity Label: General