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Critical Thinking
Students need to develop critical thinking skills in order to understand and evaluate the limitations of
statistical methods. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods makes students aware of method
appropriateness, assumptions, biases, and justifiable conclusions.
CRITICAL
 Critical Thinking
THINKING Unusual Values
Critical thinking is an important
Chebyshev’s theorem tells us that no matter what the data distribution looks like, skill for students to develop in
at least 75% of the data will fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean. As order to avoid reaching misleading
we will see in Chapter 6, when the distribution is mound-shaped and symmetric,
conclusions. The Critical Thinking
about 95% of the data are within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Data values
beyond 2 standard deviations from the mean are less common than those closer
feature provides additional clari-
to the mean. fication on specific concepts as a
In fact, one indicator that a data value might be an outlier is that it is more safeguard against incorrect evalua-
than 2.5 standard deviations from the mean (Source: Statistics, by G. Upton and tion of information.
I. Cook, Oxford University Press).
UNUSUAL VALUES
For a binomial distribution, it is unusual for the number of successes r to be
higher than m 1 2.5s or lower than m 2.5s.
We can use this indicator to determine whether a specified number of successes

out of n trials in a binomial experiment are unusual.
For instance, consider a binomial experiment with 20 trials for which probability
of success on a single trial is p 5 0.70. The expected number of successes is m 5 14,
with a standard deviation of s < 2. A number of successes above 19 or below 9
would be considered unusual. However, such numbers of successes are possible.
Interpretation  SOLUTION: Since we want to know the number of standard deviations from the mean,
we want to convert 6.9 to standard z units.
Increasingly, calculators and computers are used
to generate the numeric results of a statistical pro- x m 6.9 8
cess. However, the student still needs to correctly z5 5 5 2.20
s 0.5
interpret those results in the context of a particu-
lar application. The Interpretation feature calls Interpretation The amount of cheese on the selected pizza is only 2.20 standard
attention to this important step. Interpretation is deviations below the mean. The fact that z is negative indicates that the amount of
stressed in examples, in guided exercises, and in cheese is 2.20 standard deviations below the mean. The parlor will not lose its fran-
the problem sets. chise based on this sample.
6. Interpretation A campus performance series features plays, music groups,  Critical Thinking and Interpretation
dance troops, and stand-up comedy. The committee responsible for selecting
the performance groups include three students chosen at random from a pool
Exercises
of volunteers. This year the 30 volunteers came from a variety of majors. In every section and chapter problem set, Critical Thinking
However, the three students for the committee were all music majors. Does
this fact indicate there was bias in the selection process and that the selection problems provide students with the opportunity to test their
process was not random? Explain. understanding of the application of statistical methods and
7. Critical Thinking Greg took a random sample of size 100 from the popula- their interpretation of their results. Interpretation problems
tion of current season ticket holders to State College men’s basketball games. ask students to apply statistical results to the particular
Then he took a random sample of size 100 from the population of current application.
season ticket holders to State College women’s basketball games.
(a)
venience, random) did Greg use to sample from the population of current
season ticket holders to all State College basketball games played by
either men or women?
(b) Is it appropriate to pool the samples and claim to have a random sample of
size 200 from the population of current season ticket holders to all State
College home basketball games played by either men or women? Explain. vii
viii Chapter 1 Getting Started
Statistical Literacy
No language, including statistics, can be spoken without learning the vocabulary. Understandable
Statistics: Concepts and Methods introduces statistical terms with deliberate care.
 What Does (concept, method,

What Does the Level of Measurement Tell Us? statistical result) Tell Us?
The level of measurement tells us which arithmetic processes are appropriate for the This feature gives a brief summary of the informa-
data. This is important because different statistical processes require various kinds of tion we obtain from the named concept, method, or
arithmetic. In some instances all we need to do is count the number of data that meet statistical result.
specified criteria. In such cases nominal (and higher) data levels are all appropriate. In
other cases we need to order the data, so nominal data would not be suitable. Many
other statistical processes require division, so data need to be at the ratio level. Just
keep the nature of the data in mind before beginning statistical computations.
Important Features of a
(concept, method, or result)  Important Features of a Simple Random Sample
For a simple random sample
In statistics we use many different types of graphs,
• n from the population has an equal chance
samples, data, and analytical methods. The features
of being selected.
of each such tool help us select the most appropriate
• No researcher bias occurs in the items selected for the sample.
ones to use and help us interpret the information we
•
receive from applications of the tools.
For instance, from a population of 10 cats and 10 dogs, a random sample
of size 6 could consist of all cats.
 Statistical Literacy Problems

SECTION 6.1 PROBLEMS 1. Statistical Literacy Which, if any, of the curves in Figure 6-10 look(s) like a
normal curve? If a curve is not a normal curve, tell why.
In every section and chapter problem set,
2. Statistical Literacy m,
m 1 s, and s. Statistical Literacy problems test student under-
FIGURE 6-10 standing of terminology, statistical methods, and
the appropriate conditions for use of the differ-
ent processes.
FIGURE 6-11
Definition Boxes 
Box-and-Whisker Plots
Whenever important terms are introduced in
The quartiles together with the low and high data values give us a very useful
text, blue definition boxes appear within the
number summary of the data and their spread.
discussions. These boxes make it easy to reference
or review terms as they are used further.
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY
Lowest value, Q1, median, Q3, highest value
box-and-whisker plot. Box-and-whisker plots provide another useful technique

viii from exploratory data analysis (EDA) for describing data.
IMPORTANT WORDS & SYMBOLS  Important Words & Symbols
SECTION 4.1 Multiplication rules of probability (for The Important Words & Symbols within the
Probability of an event A, P(A) 144 independent and dependent events) 156
Intuition 144 More than two independent events 161 Chapter Review feature at the end of each
Relative frequency 144 Probability of A or B 161
Event A and B 161
chapter summarizes the terms introduced in the
Equally likely outcomes 144
Law of large numbers 146 Event A or B 161 Definition Boxes for student review at a glance.
Mutually exclusive events 163
Statistical experiment 146
Addition rules (for mutually exclusive and general
Page numbers for first occurrence of term are
Event 146
Simple event 146 events) 163 given for easy reference.
Sample space 146 More than two mutually exclusive events 165
Complement of event Ac 148 Basic probability rules 168
SECTION 4.2 SECTION 4.3

Independent events 156 Multiplication rule of counting 177
Dependent events 156 Tree diagram 178
Probability of A and B 156 Factorial notation 181
Event A | B 156 Permutations rule 181
Conditional probability 156 Combinations rule 183
P1A | B2 156
Linking Concepts:
Writing Projects  LINKING CONCEPTS: Discuss each of the following topics in class or review the topics on your own. Then
WRITING PROJECTS write a brief but complete essay in which you summarize the main points. Please
Much of statistical literacy is the ability include formulas and graphs as appropriate.
1. What does it mean to say that we are going to use a sample to draw an inference
to communicate concepts effectively. The about a population? Why is a random sample so important for this process? If
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects feature we wanted a random sample of students in the cafeteria, why couldn’t we just
at the end of each chapter tests both choose the students who order Diet Pepsi with their lunch? Comment on the
statement, “A random sample is like a miniature population, whereas samples
statistical literacy and critical thinking by that are not random are likely to be biased.” Why would the students who order
asking the student to express their under- Diet Pepsi with lunch not be a random sample of students in the cafeteria?
standing in words. 2. In your own words, explain the differences among the following sampling
-
ter sample, multistage sample, and convenience sample. Describe situations in
which each type might be useful.
5. Basic Computation: Central Limit Theorem Suppose x has a distribution  Basic Computation
with a mean of 8 and a standard deviation of 16. Random samples of size Problems
n 5 64 are drawn. These problems focus student
(a) Describe the x distribution and compute the mean and standard deviation attention on relevant formulas,
of the distribution. requirements, and computational pro-
(b) Find the z value corresponding to x 5 9. cedures. After practicing these skills,
(c) Find P1x 7 92. students are more confident as they
(d) Interpretation Would it be unusual for a random sample of size 64 from approach real-world applications.
the x distribution to have a sample mean greater than 9? Explain.
30. Expand Your Knowledge: Geometric Mean When data consist of percent-
ages, ratios, compounded growth rates, or other rates of change, the geomet-
ric mean is a useful measure of central tendency. For n data values,
Expand Your Knowledge Problems  n
Geometric mean 5 1product of the n data values, assuming all data
values are positive
Expand Your Knowledge problems present
optional enrichment topics that go beyond the average growth factor over 5 years of an investment in a mutual
material introduced in a section. Vocabulary -
and concepts needed to solve the problems are metric mean of 1.10, 1.12, 1.148, 1.038, and 1.16. Find the average growth
included at point-of-use, expanding students’ factor of this investment.
statistical literacy.
ix
Direction and Purpose
Real knowledge is delivered through direction, not just facts. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and
Methods ensures the student knows what is being covered and why at every step along the way to statis-
tical literacy.
Chapter Preview 
Questions Normal Curves and Sampling
Preview Questions at the beginning of
each chapter give the student a taste Distributions
of what types of questions can be
answered with an understanding of the
knowledge to come.
PREVIEW QUESTIONS
PART I
What are some characteristics of a normal distribution? What does
the empirical rule tell you about data spread around the mean?
How can this information be used in quality control? (SECTION 6.1)
Pressmaster/Shutterstock.com
Can you compare apples and oranges, or maybe elephants and butter-
flies? In most cases, the answer is no—unless you first standardize
your measurements. What are a standard normal distribution and
a standard z score? (SECTION 6.2)
How do you convert any normal distribution to a standard normal
distribution? How do you find probabilities of “standardized
events”? (SECTION 6.3)
PART II
FOCUS PROBLEM As humans, our experiences are finite and limited. Consequently, most of the important
decisions in our lives are based on sample (incomplete) information. What is a prob-
Benford’s Law: The Importance

ability sampling distribution? How will sampling distributions help us make good
decisions based on incomplete information? (SECTION 6.4)
There is an old saying: All roads lead to Rome. In statistics, we could recast this saying: All
of Being Number 1 probability distributions average out to be normal distributions (as the sample size
increases). How can we take advantage of this in our study of sampling
distributions? (SECTION 6.5)
Benford’s Law states that in a wide variety of circum-
The binomial and normal distributions are two of the most important probability
distributions in statistics. Under certain limiting condi-
disproportionately often. Benford’s Law applies to such
diverse topics as the drainage areas of rivers; properties of
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images
magazines, and government reports; and the half-lives of

radioactive atoms!
“1” about 30% of the time, with “2” about 18% of time,
and with “3” about 12.5% of the time. Larger digits occur
less often. For example, less than 5% of the numbers in
circumstances such as these begin with the digit 9. This
is in dramatic contrast to a random sampling situation, in
which each of the digits 1 through 9 has an equal chance 8. Focus Problem: ForBenford’s Law resources,
online student visit theyou
Again, suppose Brase/Brase,
are the auditor for a very
Understandable Statistics, 12th edition web site
of appearing. at http://www.cengage.com/statistics/brase
-
puter data bank (see Problem 7). You draw a random sample of n 5 228 numbers
r 5 92 p represent the popu-
i. Test the claim that p is more than 0.301. Use a 5 0.01.

▲ Chapter Focus Problems ii. If p is in fact larger than 0.301, it would seem there are too many num-
The Preview Questions in each chapter are followed by a

Focus Problem, which serves as a more specific example of from the point of view of the Internal Revenue Service. Comment from
what questions the student will soon be able to answer. The the perspective of the Federal Bureau of Investigation as it looks for
Focus Problems are set within appropriate applications and
iii. Comment on the following statement: “If we reject the null hypothesis at
are incorporated into the end-of-section exercises, giving a, we have not proved H0 to be false. We can say that
students the opportunity to test their understanding. the probability is a that we made a mistake in rejecting H0.” Based on the
outcome of the test, would you recommend further investigation before
accusing the company of fraud?
x
Focus Points 
SECTION 3.1 Measures of Central Tendency: Mode,
Each section opens with bul- Median, and Mean
leted Focus Points describing FOCUS POINTS
the primary learning objectives • Compute mean, median, and mode from raw data.
• Interpret what mean, median, and mode tell you.
of the section. • Explain how mean, median, and mode can be affected by extreme data values.
• What is a trimmed mean? How do you compute it?
• Compute a weighted average.
The average price of an ounce of gold is $1350. The Zippy car averages 39 miles
This section can be covered quickly. Good per gallon on the highway. A survey showed the average shoe size for women is
discussion topics include The Story of Old size 9.
Faithful in Data Highlights, Problem 1; Linking In each of the preceding statements, one number is used to describe the entire
Concepts, Problem 1; and the trade winds of
sample or population. Such a number is called an average. There are many ways to
Hawaii (Using Technology).
compute averages, but we will study only three of the major ones.
Average The easiest average to compute is the mode.
Mode The mode of a data set is the value that occurs most frequently. Note: If a data set
has no single value that occurs more frequently than any other, then that data set
has no mode.
EXAMPLE 1 Mode
Count the letters in each word of this sentence and give the mode. The numbers of
letters in the words of the sentence are
5 3 7 2 4 4 2 4 8 3 4 3 4
 Looking Forward
LOOKING FORWARD
This feature shows students where the presented material will be used
In later chapters we will use information based later. It helps motivate students to pay a little extra attention to key
topics.
on a sample and sample statistics to estimate
population parameters (Chapter 7) or make
decisions about the value of population param-
eters (Chapter 8).
CHAPTER REVIEW
SUMMARY
In this chapter, you’ve seen that statistics is the study of how • Sampling strategies, including simple random,
to collect, organize, analyze, and interpret numerical infor-
mation from populations or samples. This chapter discussed Inferential techniques presented in this text are based
some of the features of data and ways to collect data. In on simple random samples.
particular, the chapter discussed • Methods of obtaining data: Use of a census, simula-
• Individuals or subjects of a study and the variables tion, observational studies, experiments, and surveys
associated with those individuals • Concerns: Undercoverage of a population, nonre-
• sponse, bias in data from surveys and other factors,
levels of measurement of data effects of confounding or lurking variables on other
• Sample and population data. Summary measurements variables, generalization of study results beyond the
from sample data are called statistics, and those from population of the study, and study sponsorship
populations are called parameters.
▲ Chapter Summaries
The Summary within each Chapter Review feature now also appears in bulleted
form, so students can see what they need to know at a glance.
xi
Real-World Skills
Statistics is not done in a vacuum. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods gives students valu-
able skills for the real world with technology instruction, genuine applications, actual data, and group
projects.
REVISED! Tech Notes  > Tech Notes Box-and-Whisker Plot

Both Minitab and the TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire calculators support box-
and-whisker plots. On the TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire, the quartiles Q1 and Q3
Tech Notes appearing throughout the text are calculated as we calculate them in this text. In Minitab and Excel 2013, they are
give students helpful hints on using TI- calculated using a slightly different process.
84Plus and TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus Keypad) Press STATPLOT ➤On.
keypad) and TI-83Plus calculators, Highlight box plot. Use Trace and the arrow keys to display the values of the
Microsoft Excel 2013, Minitab, and Minitab
Express to solve a problem. They include
display screens to help students visualize
and better understand the solution.
Med = 221.5
Excel 2013 Does not produce box-and-whisker plot. However, each value of the
Home ribbon, click the Insert Function
fx. In the dialogue box, select Statistical as the category and scroll to Quartile. In
> USING TECHNOLOGY

the dialogue box, enter the data location and then enter the number of the value you
Minitab Press Graph ➤ Boxplot. In the dialogue box, set Data View to IQRange Box.
MinitabExpress Press Graph ➤ Boxplot ➤ simple.
Binomial Distributions -
Although tables of binomial probabilities can be found in priate subtraction of probabilities, rather than addition of
most libraries, such tables are often inadequate. Either the
value of p (the probability of success on a trial) you are look- 3 to 7 easier.
ing for is not in the table, or the value of n (the number 3. Estimate the probability that Juneau will have at most 7
of trials) you are looking for is too large for the table. In clear days in December.
Chapter 6, we will study the normal approximation to the bi- 4. Estimate the probability that Seattle will have from 5 to
nomial. This approximation is a great help in many practical 10 (including 5 and 10) clear days in December.
5. Estimate the probability that Hilo will have at least 12
 REVISED! Using Technology
applications. Even so, we sometimes use the formula for the
binomial probability distribution on a computer or graphing clear days in December.
calculator to compute the probability we want. 6. Estimate the probability that Phoenix will have 20 or Further technology instruction is
more clear days in December. available at the end of each chapter in
Applications 7. Estimate the probability that Las Vegas will have from
The following percentages were obtained over many years 20 to 25 (including 20 and 25) clear days in December. the Using Technology section. Problems
of observation by the U.S. Weather Bureau. All data listed Technology Hints are presented with real-world data from
are for the month of December.
TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire (with TI-84 a variety of disciplines that can be
Location
Long-Term Mean % of
Clear Days in Dec.
Plus keypad), Excel 2013, Minitab/MinitabExpress solved by using TI-84Plus and TI-nspire
Juneau, Alaska 18% for binomial distribution functions on the TI-84Plus/
(with TI-84Plus keypad) and TI-83Plus
Seattle, Washington 24% TI-83Plus/TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus keypad) calculators, calculators, Microsoft Excel 2013, Minitab,
Hilo, Hawaii 36% Excel 2013, Minitab/MinitabExpress, and SPSS.
Honolulu, Hawaii 60%
and Minitab Express.
SPSS
Las Vegas, Nevada 75%
In SPSS, the function PDF.BINOM(q,n,p) gives the prob-
Phoenix, Arizona 77%
ability of q successes out of n trials, where p is the prob-
Adapted from Local Climatological Data, U.S. Weather Bureau publication, “Normals, ability of success on a single trial. In the data editor, name
Means, and Extremes” Table.
a variable r and enter values 0 through n. Name another
In the locations listed, the month of December is a rela- variable Prob_r. Then use the menu choices Transform ➤
tively stable month with respect to weather. Since weather Compute. In the dialogue box, use Prob_r for the target
patterns from one day to the next are more or less the same, variable. In the function group, select PDF and Noncentral
it is reasonable to use a binomial probability model. PDF. In the function box, select PDF.BINOM(q,n,p). Use
1. Let r be the number of clear days in December. Since the variable r for q and appropriate values for n and p. Note
December has 31 days, 0 r 31. Using appropriate that the function CDF.BINOM(q,n,p), from the CDF and
Noncentral CDF group, gives the cumulative probability of
the probability P(r) for each of the listed locations when 0 through q successes.
r 5 0, 1, 2, . . . , 31.
2. For each location, what is the expected value of the
probability distribution? What is the standard deviation?
xii
EXAMPLE 13 Central Limit Theorem
A certain strain of bacteria occurs in all raw milk. Let x be the bacteria count per
milliliter of milk. The health department has found that if the milk is not contami-
 UPDATED! Applications
nated, then x has a distribution that is more or less mound-shaped and symmetric. Real-world applications are used
The mean of the x distribution is m 5 2500, and the standard deviation is s 5 300.
In a large commercial dairy, the health inspector takes 42 random samples of the milk from the beginning to introduce each
produced each day. At the end of the day, the bacteria count in each of the 42 samples statistical process. Rather than just
is averaged to obtain the sample mean bacteria count x. crunching numbers, students come
(a) Assuming the milk is not contaminated, what is the distribution of x? to appreciate the value of statistics
SOLUTION: The sample size is n 5 42. Since this value exceeds 30, the central
through relevant examples.
limit theorem applies, and we know that x will be approximately normal, with
mean and standard deviation
11. Pain Management: Laser Therapy “Effect of Helium-Neon Laser

Auriculotherapy on Experimental Pain Threshold” is the title of an article in
the journal Physical Therapy (Vol. 70, No. 1, pp. 24–30). In this article, laser
therapy was discussed as a useful alternative to drugs in pain management of
chronically ill patients. To measure pain threshold, a machine was used that de-
livered low-voltage direct current to different parts of the body (wrist, neck, and
back). The machine measured current in milliamperes (mA). The pretreatment
Most exercises in each section  detectable) at m 5 3.15 mA with standard deviation s 5 1.45 mA. Assume that
are applications problems. the distribution of threshold pain, measured in milliamperes, is symmetric and
more or less mound-shaped. Use the empirical rule to
(a) estimate a range of milliamperes centered about the mean in which about
68% of the experimental group had a threshold of pain.
(b) estimate a range of milliamperes centered about the mean in which about
95% of the experimental group had a threshold of pain.
12. Control Charts: Yellowstone National Park Yellowstone Park Medical
Services (YPMS) provides emergency health care for park visitors. Such
health care includes treatment for everything from indigestion and sunburn
to more serious injuries. A recent issue of Yellowstone Today (National Park
DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Break into small groups and discuss the following topics. Organize a brief outline in
GROUP PROJECTS which you summarize the main points of your group discussion.
 Data Highlights: Group

1.Examine Figure 2-20, “Everyone Agrees: Slobs Make Worst Roommates.”
This is a clustered bar graph because two percentages are given for each re-
sponse category: responses from men and responses from women. Comment
about how the artistic rendition has slightly changed the format of a bar graph. Projects
Do the bars seem to have lengths that accurately the relative percentages
of the responses? In your own opinion, does the artistic rendition enhance or Using Group Projects, students gain
confuse the information? Explain. Which characteristic of “worst roommates” experience working with others by
does the graphic seem to illustrate? Can this graph be considered a Pareto chart
for men? for women? Why or why not? From the information given in the - discussing a topic, analyzing data,
ure, do you think the survey just listed the four given annoying characteristics? and collaborating to formulate their
Do you think a respondent could choose more than one characteristic? Explain
response to the questions posed in
FIGURE 2-20 the exercise.
Source: Advantage Business Research for Mattel Compatibility
xiii
Making the Jump
Get to the “Aha!” moment faster. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods provides the push
students need to get there through guidance and example.
 Procedures and
PROCEDURE
Requirements
How to test M when S is known Procedure display boxes summarize
simple step-by-step strategies for
Requirements
carrying out statistical procedures
Let x be a random variable appropriate to your application. Obtain a simple and methods as they are intro-
random sample (of size n) of x values from which you compute the sample duced. Requirements for using
mean x. The value of s is already known (perhaps from a previous study). the procedures are also stated.
If you can assume that x has a normal distribution, then any sample size n Students can refer back to these
will work. If you cannot assume this, then use a sample size n 30. boxes as they practice using the
Procedure procedures.
1. In the context of the application, state the null and alternate hypothe-
ses and set the a.
2. Use the known s, the sample size n, the value of x from the sample, and m
from the null hypothesis to compute the standardized sample test statistic.
x m
z5 GUIDED EXERCISE 11 Probability Regarding x
s
1n In mountain country, major highways sometimes use tunnels instead of long, winding roads over high passes. However,
too many vehicles in a tunnel at the same time can cause a hazardous situation. Traffic engineers are studying a long
3. Use the standard normal distribution and the
tunnel in Colorado. type ofthetest,
If x represents one-tailed
time for a vehicle to goorthrough the tunnel, it is known that the x distribution
has mean m 5 12.1 minutes and standard deviation s 5 3.8 minutes under ordinary traffic conditions. From a
P-value corresponding to the test statistic.
histogram of x values, it was found that the x distribution is mound-shaped with some symmetry about the mean.
4. Conclude the test. If P-value a, then reject H0. If P-value 7 a,
Engineers have calculated that, on average, vehicles should spend from 11 to 13 minutes in the tunnel. If
then do not reject H0. the time is less than 11 minutes, traffic is moving too fast for safe travel in the tunnel. If the time is more than
5. Interpret your conclusion in 13
theminutes,
contextthereof
is athe application.
problem of bad air quality (too much carbon monoxide and other pollutants).
Under ordinary conditions, there are about 50 vehicles in the tunnel at one time. What is the probability that the
mean time for 50 vehicles in the tunnel will be from 11 to 13 minutes?
We will answer this question in steps.
(a) Let x represent the sample mean based on sam- From the central limit theorem, we expect the x dis-
ples of size 50. Describe the x distribution. tribution to be approximately normal, with mean and
standard deviation
s 3.8
mx 5 m 5 12.1 sx 5 5 < 0.54
1n 150
(b) Find P111 6 x 6 132. We convert the interval

11 6 x 6 13
Jupiterimages/Stockbyte/Getty Images
to a standard z interval and use the standard normal

probability table to find our answer. Since
x m x 12.1
Guided Exercises  z5
s/ 1n
<
0.54
11 12.1
Students gain experience with new x 5 11 converts to z < 5 2.04
0.54
procedures and methods through 13 12.1
Guided Exercises. Beside each problem and x 5 13 converts to z < 5 1.67
0.54
in a Guided Exercise, a completely Therefore,
worked-out solution appears for im- P111 6 x 6 132 5 P1 2.04 6 z 6 1.672
mediate reinforcement. 5 0.9525 0.0207
5 0.9318
(c) Interpret your answer to part (b). It seems that about 93% of the time, there should be no
xiv safety hazard for average traffic flow.
Preface
Welcome to the exciting world of statistics! We have written this text to make statis-
tics accessible to everyone, including those with a limited mathematics background.
Statistics affects all aspects of our lives. Whether we are testing new medical devices
or determining what will entertain us, applications of statistics are so numerous that,
in a sense, we are limited only by our own imagination in discovering new uses for
statistics.
Overview
The twelfth edition of Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods contin-
ues to emphasize concepts of statistics. Statistical methods are carefully presented
with a focus on understanding both the suitability of the method and the meaning
of the result. Statistical methods and measurements are developed in the context of
applications.
Critical thinking and interpretation are essential in understanding and evaluat-
ing information. Statistical literacy is fundamental for applying and comprehending
statistical results. In this edition we have expanded and highlighted the treatment of
statistical literacy, critical thinking, and interpretation.
We have retained and expanded features that made the first 11 editions of the
text very readable. Definition boxes highlight important terms. Procedure displays
summarize steps for analyzing data. Examples, exercises, and problems touch on
applications appropriate to a broad range of interests.
The twelfth edition continues to have extensive online support. Instructional
videos are available on DVD. The companion web site at http://www.cengage.com/
statistics/brase contains more than 100 data sets (in JMP, Microsoft Excel, Minitab,
SPSS, and TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire with TI-84Plus keypad ASCII file for-
mats) and technology guides.
Available with the twelfth edition is MindTap for Introductory Statistics. MindTap
for Introductory Statistics is a digital-learning solution that places learning at the
center of the experience and can be customized to fit course needs. It offers algorith-
mically-generated problems, immediate student feedback, and a powerful answer
evaluation and grading system. Additionally, it provides students with a personalized
path of dynamic assignments, a focused improvement plan, and just-in-time, inte-
grated review of prerequisite gaps that turn cookie cutter into cutting edge, apathy
into engagement, and memorizers into higher-level thinkers.
MindTap for Introductory Statistics is a digital representation of the course
that provides tools to better manage limited time, stay organized and be successful.
Instructors can customize the course to fit their needs by providing their students
with a learning experience—including assignments—in one proven, easy-to-use
interface.
With an array of study tools, students will get a true understanding of course
concepts, achieve better grades, and set the groundwork for their future courses.
These tools include:
• A Pre-course Assessment—a diagnostic and follow-up practice and review oppor-
tunity that helps students brush up on their prerequisite skills to prepare them to
succeed in the course.
xv
xvi preface
• Just-in-time and side-by-side assignment help –provide students with scaffolded

and targeted help, all within the assignment experience, so everything the student
needs is in one place.
• Stats in Practice—a series of 1-3 minute news videos designed to engage students
and introduce each unit by showing them how that unit’s concepts are practically
used in the real world. Videos are accompanied by follow-up questions to rein-
force the critical thinking aspect of the feature and promote in-class discussion.
Learn more at www.cengage.com/mindtap.
Major Changes in the Twelfth Edition

With each new edition, the authors reevaluate the scope, appropriateness, and effec-
tiveness of the text’s presentation and reflect on extensive user feedback. Revisions
have been made throughout the text to clarify explanations of important concepts and
to update problems.
Additional Flexibility Provided by Dividing Chapters into Parts

In the twelfth edition several of the longer chapters have been broken into easy to
manage and teach parts. Each part has a brief introduction, brief summary, and list
of end-of-chapter problems that are applicable to the sections in the specified part.
The partition gives appropriate places to pause, review, and summarize content. In
addition, the parts provide flexibility in course organization.
Chapter 6 Normal Distributions and Sampling Distributions: Part I discusses the
normal distribution and use of the standard normal distribution while Part II
contains sampling distributions, the central limit theorem, and the normal
approximation to the binomial distribution.
Chapter 7 Estimation: Part I contains the introduction to confidence intervals
and confidence intervals for a single mean and for a single proportion while
Part II has confidence intervals for the difference of means and for the differ-
ence of proportions.
Chapter 8 Hypothesis Testing: Part I introduces hypothesis testing and includes
tests of a single mean and of a single proportion. Part II discusses hypothesis
tests of paired differences, tests of differences between two means and differ-
ences between two proportions.
Chapter 9 Correlation and Regression: Part I has simple linear regression while
Part II has multiple linear regression.
Revised Examples and New Section Problems

Examples and guided exercises have been updated and revised. Additional section
problems emphasize critical thinking and interpretation of statistical results.
Updates in Technology Including Mindtab Express

Instructions for Excel 2013, Minitab 17 and new Minitab Express are included in the
Tech Notes and Using Technology.
Continuing Content
Critical Thinking, Interpretation, and Statistical Literacy
The twelfth edition of this text continues and expands the emphasis on critical
thinking, interpretation, and statistical literacy. Calculators and computers are very
good at providing numerical results of statistical processes. However, numbers from
a computer or calculator display are meaningless unless the user knows how to
interpret the results and if the statistical process is appropriate. This text helps stu-
dents determine whether or not a statistical method or process is appropriate. It helps
PREFACE xvii
students understand what a statistic measures. It helps students interpret the results of
a confidence interval, hypothesis test, or liner regression model.
Introduction of Hypothesis Testing Using P-Values

In keeping with the use of computer technology and standard practice in research,
hypothesis testing is introduced using P-values. The critical region method is still
supported but not given primary emphasis.
Use of Student’s t Distribution in Confidence Intervals and

Testing of Means
If the normal distribution is used in confidence intervals and testing of means, then the
population standard deviation must be known. If the population standard d eviation is
not known, then under conditions described in the text, the Student’s t distribution
is used. This is the most commonly used procedure in statistical research. It is also
used in statistical software packages such as Microsoft Excel, Minitab, SPSS, and
TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire calculators.
Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests of Difference

of Means
If the normal distribution is used, then both population standard deviations must be
known. When this is not the case, the Student’s t distribution incorporates an approx-
imation for t, with a commonly used conservative choice for the degrees of freedom.
Satterthwaite’s approximation for the degrees of freedom as used in computer soft-
ware is also discussed. The pooled standard deviation is presented for appropriate
applications (s1 < s2).
Features in the Twelfth Edition

Chapter and Section Lead-ins
• Preview Questions at the beginning of each chapter are keyed to the sections.
• Focus Problems at the beginning of each chapter demonstrate types of questions stu-
dents can answer once they master the concepts and skills presented in the chapter.
• Focus Points at the beginning of each section describe the primary learning objec-
tives of the section.
Carefully Developed Pedagogy

• Examples show students how to select and use appropriate procedures.
• Guided Exercises within the sections give students an opportunity to work with
a new concept. Completely worked-out solutions appear beside each exercise to
give immediate reinforcement.
• Definition boxes highlight important definitions throughout the text.
• Procedure displays summarize key strategies for carrying out statistical procedures
and methods. Conditions required for using the procedure are also stated.
• What Does (a concept, method or result) Tell Us? summarizes information we
obtain from the named concepts and statistical processes and gives insight for
additional application.
• Important Features of a (concept, method, or result) summarizes the features of the
listed item.
• Looking Forward features give a brief preview of how a current topic is used later.
• Labels for each example or guided exercise highlight the technique, concept, or
process illustrated by the example or guided exercise. In addition, labels for sec-
tion and chapter problems describe the field of application and show the wide
variety of subjects in which statistics is used.
xviii preface
• Section and chapter problems require the student to use all the new concepts mas-
tered in the section or chapter. Problem sets include a variety of real-world appli-
cations with data or settings from identifiable sources. Key steps and solutions to
odd-numbered problems appear at the end of the book.
• Basic Computation problems ask students to practice using formulas and statisti-
cal methods on very small data sets. Such practice helps students understand what
a statistic measures.
• Statistical Literacy problems ask students to focus on correct terminology and
processes of appropriate statistical methods. Such problems occur in every section
and chapter problem set.
• Interpretation problems ask students to explain the meaning of the statistical
results in the context of the application.
• Critical Thinking problems ask students to analyze and comment on various issues
that arise in the application of statistical methods and in the interpretation of
results. These problems occur in every section and chapter problem set.
• Expand Your Knowledge problems present enrichment topics such as negative bino-
mial distribution; conditional probability utilizing binomial, Poisson, and normal
distributions; estimation of standard deviation from a range of data values; and more.
• Cumulative review problem sets occur after every third chapter and include key
topics from previous chapters. Answers to all cumulative review problems are
given at the end of the book.
• Data Highlights and Linking Concepts provide group projects and writing projects.
• Viewpoints are brief essays presenting diverse situations in which statistics is used.
• Design and photos are appealing and enhance readability.
Technology Within the Text

• Tech Notes within sections provide brief point-of-use instructions for the
TI‑84Plus, TI-83Plus, and TI-nspire (with 84Plus keypad) calculators, Microsoft
Excel 2013, and Minitab.
• Using Technology sections show the use of SPSS as well as the TI-84Plus,
TI-83Plus, and TI-nspire (with TI-84Plus keypad) calculators, Microsoft Excel,
and Minitab.
Interpretation Features
To further understanding and interpretation of statistical concepts, methods, and
results, we have included two special features: What Does (a concept, method,
or result) Tell Us? and Important Features of a (concept, method, or result).
These features summarize the information we obtain from concepts and statistical
processes and give additional insights for further application.
Expand Your Knowledge Problems and Quick Overview Topics

With Additional Applications
Expand Your Knowledge problems do just that! These are optional but contain very
useful information taken from the vast literature of statistics. These topics are not
included in the main text but are easily learned using material from the section or
previous sections. Although these topics are optional, the authors feel they add depth
and enrich a student’s learning experience. Each topic was chosen for its relatively
straightforward presentation and useful applications. All such problems and their
applications are flagged with a sun logo.
Expand Your Knowledge problems in the twelfth edition involve donut graphs;
stratified sampling and the best estimate for the population mean m; the process of
using minimal variance for linear combinations of independent random variables;
and serial correlation (also called autocorrelation).
Some of the other topics in Expand Your Knowledge problems or quick over-
views include graphs such as dotplots and variations on stem-and-leaf plots; out-
liers in stem-and-leaf plots; harmonic and geometric means; moving averages;
PREFACE xix
calculating odds in favor and odds against; extension of conditional probability to

various distributions such as the Poisson distribution and the normal distribution;
Bayes’s theorem; additional probability distributions such as the multinomial
distribution, negative binomial distribution, hypergeometric distribution, contin-
uous uniform distribution, and exponential distribution; waiting time between
Poisson events; quick estimate of the standard deviation using the Empirical rule;
plus four confidence intervals for proportions; Satterthwaite’s approximation
for degrees of freedom in confidence intervals and hypothesis tests; relationship
between confidence intervals and two-tailed hypothesis testing; pooled two-
sample procedures for confidence intervals and hypothesis tests; resampling (also
known as bootstrap); simulations of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests
using different samples of the same size; mean and standard deviation for linear
combinations of dependent random variables; logarithmic transformations with
the exponential growth model and the power law model; and polynomial (curvi-
linear) regression.
For location of these optional topics in the text, please see the index.
Most Recent Operating System for the

TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus Calculators
The latest operating system (v2.55MP) for the TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus calculators is
discussed, with new functions such as the inverse t distribution and the chi-square
goodness of fit test described. One convenient feature of the operating system is that
it provides on-screen prompts for inputs required for many probability and statistical
functions. This operating system is already on new TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus calculators
and is available for download to older calculators at the Texas Instruments web site.
Alternate Routes Through the Text

Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods, Twelfth Edition, is designed to be
flexible. It offers the professor a choice of teaching possibilities. In most one-semester
courses, it is not practical to cover all the material in depth. However, depending on the
emphasis of the course, the professor may choose to cover various topics. For help in
topic selection, refer to the Table of Prerequisite Material on page 1.
• Introducing linear regression early. For courses requiring an early presentation
of linear regression, the descriptive components of linear regression (Sections 9.1
and 9.2) can be presented any time after Chapter 3. However, inference topics
involving predictions, the correlation coefficient r, and the slope of the least-
squares line b require an introduction to confidence intervals (Sections 7.1 and
7.2) and hypothesis testing (Sections 8.1 and 8.2).
• Probability. For courses requiring minimal probability, Section 4.1 (What Is
Probability?) and the first part of Section 4.2 (Some Probability Rules—Compound
Events) will be sufficient.
Acknowledgments
It is our pleasure to acknowledge all of the reviewers, past and present, who have
helped make this book what it is over its twelve editions:
Jorge Baca, Cosumnes River College Abraham Biggs, Broward Community

Wayne Barber, Chemeketa Community College
College Dexter Cahoy, Louisiana Tech University
Molly Beauchman, Yavapai College Maggy Carney, Burlington County College
Nick Belloit, Florida State College Christopher Donnelly, Macomb
at Jacksonville Community College
Kimberly Benien, Wharton County Tracy Leshan, Baltimore City Community
Junior College College
xx preface
Meike Niederhausen, University of Raja Khoury, Collin County Community

Portland College
Deanna Payton, Northern Oklahoma Diane Koenig, Rock Valley College
College in Stillwater Charles G. Laws, Cleveland State
Michelle Van Wagoner, Nashville State Community College
Community College Michael R. Lloyd, Henderson State
University
Reza Abbasian, Texas Lutheran University Beth Long, Pellissippi State Technical
Paul Ache, Kutztown University and Community College
Kathleen Almy, Rock Valley College Lewis Lum, University of Portland
Polly Amstutz, University of Nebraska Darcy P. Mays, Virginia Commonwealth
at Kearney University
Delores Anderson, Truett-McConnell Charles C. Okeke, College of Southern
College Nevada, Las Vegas
Robert J. Astalos, Feather River College Peg Pankowski, Community College of
Lynda L. Ballou, Kansas State Allegheny County
University Ram Polepeddi, Westwood College,
Mary Benson, Pensacola Junior College Denver North Campus
Larry Bernett, Benedictine University Azar Raiszadeh, Chattanooga State
Kiran Bhutani, The Catholic University Technical Community College
of America Traei Reed, St. Johns River Community
Kristy E. Bland, Valdosta State University College
John Bray, Broward Community College Michael L. Russo, Suffolk County
Bill Burgin, Gaston College Community College
Toni Carroll, Siena Heights University Janel Schultz, Saint Mary’s University
Pinyuen Chen, Syracuse University of Minnesota
Emmanuel des-Bordes, James A. Rhodes Sankara Sethuraman, Augusta State
State College University
Jennifer M. Dollar, Grand Rapids Stephen Soltys, West Chester University
Community College of Pennsylvania
Larry E. Dunham, Wor-Wic Community Ron Spicer, Colorado Technical
College University
Andrew Ellett, Indiana University Winson Taam, Oakland University
Ruby Evans, Keiser University Jennifer L. Taggart, Rockford College
Mary Fine, Moberly Area Community William Truman, University of North
College Carolina at Pembroke
Rebecca Fouguette, Santa Rosa Junior Bill White, University of South Carolina
College Upstate
Rene Garcia, Miami-Dade Community Jim Wienckowski, State University of
College New York at Buffalo
Larry Green, Lake Tahoe Community Stephen M. Wilkerson, Susquehanna
College University
Shari Harris, John Wood Community Hongkai Zhang, East Central
College University
Janice Hector, DeAnza College Shunpu Zhang, University of Alaska,
Jane Keller, Metropolitan Community Fairbanks
College Cathy Zucco-Teveloff, Trinity College
We would especially like to thank Roger Lipsett for his careful accuracy review
of this text. We are especially appreciative of the excellent work by the editorial and
production professionals at Cengage Learning. In particular we thank Spencer Arritt,
Hal Humphrey, and Catherine Van Der Laan.
Without their creative insight and attention to detail, a project of this quality
and magnitude would not be possible. Finally, we acknowledge the cooperation of
Minitab, Inc., SPSS, Texas Instruments, and Microsoft.
Charles Henry Brase

Corrinne Pellillo Brase
Additional Resources–Get More
from your Textbook!
MindTap™
New to this Enhanced Edition is MindTap for Introductory Statistics. MindTap for
Introductory Statistics is a digital-learning solution that places learning at the center
of the experience and can be customized to fit course needs. It offers algorithmically-
generated problems, immediate student feedback, and a powerful answer evalua-
tion and grading system. Additionally, it provides students with a personalized path
of dynamic assignments, a focused improvement plan, and just-in-time, integrated
review of prerequisite gaps that turn cookie cutter into cutting edge, apathy into
engagement, and memorizers into higher-level thinkers.
MindTap for Introductory Statistics is a digital representation of the course that pro-
vides tools to better manage limited time, stay organized and be successful. Instructors
can customize the course to fit their needs by providing their students with a learning
experience—including assignments—in one proven, easy-to-use interface.
With an array of study tools, students will get a true understanding of course
concepts, achieve better grades, and set the groundwork for their future courses.
These tools include:
• A Pre-course Assessment—a diagnostic and follow-up practice and review oppor-
tunity that helps students brush up on their prerequisite skills to prepare them to
succeed in the course.
• Just-in-time and side-by-side assignment help –provide students with scaffolded
and targeted help, all within the assignment experience, so everything the student
needs is in one place.
• Stats in Practice—a series of 1-3 minute news videos designed to engage students
and introduce each unit by showing them how that unit’s concepts are practically
used in the real world. Videos are accompanied by follow-up questions to rein-
force the critical thinking aspect of the feature and promote in-class discussion.
Go to http://www.cengage.com/mindtap for more information.
Instructor Resources
Annotated Instructor’s Edition (AIE) Answers to all exercises, teaching com-
ments, and pedagogical suggestions appear in the margin, or at the end of the text in
the case of large graphs.
Cengage Learning Testing Powered by Cognero A flexible, online system that
allows you to:
• author, edit, and manage test bank content from multiple Cengage Learning solutions
• create multiple test versions in an instant
• deliver tests from your LMS, your classroom or wherever you want
Companion Website The companion website at http://www.cengage.com/brase
contains a variety of resources.
• Microsoft® PowerPoint® lecture slides
• More than 100 data sets in a variety of formats, including

JMP

Microsoft Excel

Minitab

SPSS

TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire with 84plus keypad ASCII file formats
xxi
xxii Additional Resources–Get More from your Textbook!
• Technology guides for the following programs


JMP

TI-84Plus, TI-83Plus, and TI-nspire graphing calculators

Minitab software (version 14)

Microsoft Excel (2010/2007)

SPSS Statistics software
Student Resources
Student Solutions Manual Provides solutions to the odd-numbered section and
chapter exercises and to all the Cumulative Review exercises in the student textbook.
Instructional DVDs Hosted by Dana Mosely, these text-specific DVDs cover

all sections of the text and provide explanations of key concepts, examples, exer-
cises, and applications in a lecture-based format. DVDs are close-captioned for the
hearing-impaired.
JMP is a statistics software for Windows and Macintosh computers from SAS, the
market leader in analytics software and services for industry. JMP Student Edition is
a streamlined, easy-to-use version that provides all the statistical analysis and graph-
ics covered in this textbook. Once data is imported, students will find that most pro-
cedures require just two or three mouse clicks. JMP can import data from a variety of
formats, including Excel and other statistical packages, and you can easily copy and
paste graphs and output into documents.
JMP also provides an interface to explore data visually and interactively, which
will help your students develop a healthy relationship with their data, work more
efficiently with data, and tackle difficult statistical problems more easily. Because
its output provides both statistics and graphs together, the student will better see and
understand the application of concepts covered in this book as well. JMP Student
Edition also contains some unique platforms for student projects, such as mapping
and scripting. JMP functions in the same way on both Windows and Macintosh plat-
forms and instructions contained with this book apply to both platforms.
Access to this software is available with new copies of the book. Students can
purchase JMP standalone via CengageBrain.com or www.jmp.com/getse.
Minitab® and IBM SPSS These statistical software packages manipulate and in-
terpret data to produce textual, graphical, and tabular results. Minitab® and/or SPSS
may be packaged with the textbook. Student versions are available.
The companion website at http://www.cengage.com/statistics/brase contains useful

assets for students.
• Technology Guides Separate guides exist with information and examples for each
of four technology tools. Guides are available for the TI-84Plus, TI-83Plus, and
TI-nspire graphing calculators, Minitab software (version 14) Microsoft Excel
(2010/2007), and SPSS Statistics software.
• Interactive Teaching and Learning Tools include online datasets (in JMP, Microsoft
Excel, Minitab, SPSS, and Tl-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-nspire with TI-84Plus keypad
ASCII file formats) and more.
CengageBrain.com Provides the freedom to purchase online homework and other

materials à la carte exactly what you need, when you need it.
For more information, visit http://www.cengage.com/statistics/brase or contact

your local Cengage Learning sales representative.
Table of Prerequisite Material
Chapter Prerequisite Sections
1 Getting Started None
2 Organizing Data 1.1, 1.2
3 Averages and Variation 1.1, 1.2, 2.1
4 Elementary Probability Theory 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2
5 The Binomial Probability 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2
Distribution and Related Topics 4.3 useful but not essential
6 Normal Curves and Sampling
Distributions (omit 6.6) 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 5.1
(include 6.6) also 5.2, 5.3
7 Estimation
(omit 7.3 and parts of 7.4) 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 5.1, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5
(include 7.3 and all of 7.4) also 5.2, 5.3, 6.6
8 Hypothesis Testing
(omit 8.3 and part of 8.5) 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 5.1, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5
(include 8.3 and all of 8.5) also 5.2, 5.3, 6.6
9 Correlation and Regression
(9.1 and 9.2) 1.1, 1.2, 3.1, 3.2
(9.3 and 9.4) also 4.1, 4.2, 5.1, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 7.1, 7.2, 8.1, 8.2
10 Chi-Square and F Distributions
(omit 10.3) 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 5.1, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4,
(include 10.3) 6.5, 8.1 also 7.1
11 Nonparametric Statistics 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 5.1, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5,
8.1, 8.3
1
1
2 Chapter 1 Getting Started
1.1 What Is Statistics?
1.2 Random Samples
1.3 Introduction to Experimental Design
Paul Spinelli/Major League Baseball/Getty Images
Chance favors the prepared mind.

Louis Pasteur (1822–1895) is the founder of modern bacteriology. At age 57,
Bettmann/Historical/Corbis
—Louis Pasteur Pasteur was studying cholera. He accidentally left some bacillus culture unattended
Statistical techniques are tools in his laboratory during the summer. In the fall, he injected laboratory animals with
of thought . . . not substitutes for this bacilli. To his surprise, the animals did not die—in fact, they thrived and were
thought. resistant to cholera.
—Abraham Kaplan When the final results were examined, it is said that Pasteur remained silent for a
minute and then exclaimed, as if he had seen a vision, “Don’t you see they have been
vaccinated!” Pasteur’s work ultimately saved many human lives.
Most of the important decisions in life involve incomplete information. Such
decisions often involve so many complicated factors that a complete analysis is not
practical or even possible. We are often forced into the position of making a guess
based on limited information.
As the first quote reminds us, our chances of success are greatly improved if we
have a “prepared mind.” The statistical methods you will learn in this book will help
you achieve a prepared mind for the study of many different fields. The second quote
reminds us that statistics is an important tool, but it is not a replacement for an
in-depth knowledge of the field to which it is being applied.
The authors of this book want you to understand and enjoy statistics. The
reading material will tell you about the subject. The examples will show you how it
works. To understand, however, you must get involved. Guided exercises, calculator
and computer applications, section and chapter problems, and writing exercises are
all designed to get you involved in the subject. As you grow in your understanding
of statistics, we believe you will enjoy learning a subject that has a world full of
interesting applications.
2
Section 1.1 What is Statistics 3
Getting Started
preview questions
Why is statistics important? (section 1.1)
What is the nature of data? (section 1.1)
How can you draw a random sample? (section 1.2)
What are other sampling techniques? (section 1.2)
How can you design ways to collect data? (section 1.3)
iStock/Getty Images Plus/north-tail/Getty Images

Focus Problem
Where Have All the Fireflies Gone?
A feature article in The Wall Street Journal discusses the disappearance of fire-
flies. In the article, Professor Sara Lewis of Tufts University and other scholars
express concern about the decline in the worldwide population of fireflies.
There are a number of possible explanations for the decline, including habi-
tat reduction of woodlands, wetlands, and open fields; pesticides; and
pollution. Artificial nighttime lighting might interfere with the Morse-
code-like mating ritual of the fireflies. Some chemical companies pay a
bounty for fireflies because the insects contain two rare chemicals used
in medical research and electronic detection systems used in spacecraft.
What does any of this have to do with statistics?
The truth, at this time, is that no one really knows (a) how much the
world firefly population has declined or (b) how to explain the decline.
The population of all fireflies is simply too large to study in its entirety.
In any study of fireflies, we must rely on incomplete information
Courtesy of Corrinne and Charles Brase
from samples. Furthermore, from these samples we must draw realistic

conclusions that have statistical integrity. This is the kind of work that
makes use of statistical methods to determine ways to collect, analyze,
and investigate data.
Suppose you are conducting a study to compare firefly populations
exposed to normal daylight/darkness conditions with firefly populations
exposed to continuous light (24 hours a day). You set up two firefly colo-
Adapted from Ohio State University Firefly Files logo
nies in a laboratory environment. The two colonies are identical except
that one colony is exposed to normal daylight/darkness conditions and the other is
exposed to continuous light. Each colony is populated with the same number of ma-
ture fireflies. After 72 hours, you count the number of living fireflies in each colony.
After completing this chapter, you will be able to answer the following questions.
(a) Is this an experiment or an observation study? Explain.
(b) Is there a control group? Is there a treatment group? For online student resources, visit the Brase/Brase,
Understandable Statistics, 12th edition web site
at http://www.cengage.com/statistics/brase
3
(c) What is the variable in this study?

(d) What is the level of measurement (nominal, interval, ordinal, or ratio) of the
variable?
(See Problem 11 of the Chapter 1 Review Problems.)
SECTION 1.1 What Is Statistics?

Focus Points
• Identify variables in a statistical study.
• Distinguish between quantitative and qualitative variables.
• Identify populations and samples.
• Distinguish between parameters and statistics.
• Determine the level of measurement.
• Compare descriptive and inferential statistics.
Introduction
Decision making is an important aspect of our lives. We make decisions based on the
information we have, our attitudes, and our values. Statistical methods help us exam-
ine information. Moreover, statistics can be used for making decisions when we are
faced with uncertainties. For instance, if we wish to estimate the proportion of people
who will have a severe reaction to a flu shot without giving the shot to everyone who
wants it, statistics provides appropriate methods. Statistical methods enable us to
look at information from a small collection of people or items and make inferences
about a larger collection of people or items.
Procedures for analyzing data, together with rules of inference, are central topics
in the study of statistics.
Statistics Statistics is the study of how to collect, organize, analyze, and interpret numerical
information from data.
The subject of statistics is multifaceted. The following definition of statistics is

found in the International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science, edited by Miodrag
Lovric. Professor David Hand of Imperial College London—the president of the
Royal Statistical Society—presents the definition in his article “Statistics: An
Overview.”
Statistics is both the science of uncertainty and the technology of extracting

information from data.
The statistical procedures you will learn in this book should supplement your
built-in system of inference—that is, the results from statistical procedures and good
sense should dovetail. Of course, statistical methods themselves have no power to
work miracles. These methods can help us make some decisions, but not all conceiv-
able decisions. Remember, even a properly applied statistical procedure is no more
accurate than the data, or facts, on which it is based. Finally, statistical results should
be interpreted by one who understands not only the methods, but also the subject
matter to which they have been applied.
The general prerequisite for statistical decision making is the gathering of data.
First, we need to identify the individuals or objects to be included in the study and
the characteristics or features of the individuals that are of interest.
Section 1.1 What Is Statistics 5
Individuals Individuals are the people or objects included in the study.

Variable A variable is a characteristic of the individual to be measured or observed.
For instance, if we want to do a study about the people who have climbed
Mt. Everest, then the individuals in the study are all people who have actually made
it to the summit. One variable might be the height of such individuals. Other vari-
ables might be age, weight, gender, nationality, income, and so on. Regardless of the
variables we use, we would not include measurements or observations from people
who have not climbed the mountain.
The variables in a study may be quantitative or qualitative in nature.
Quantitative variable A quantitative variable has a value or numerical measurement for which opera-
Qualitative variable tions such as addition or averaging make sense. A qualitative variable describes
an individual by placing the individual into a category or group, such as male or
female.
For the Mt. Everest climbers, variables such as height, weight, age, or income
are quantitative variables. Qualitative variables involve nonnumerical observations
such as gender or nationality. Sometimes qualitative variables are referred to as
Categorical variable categorical variables.
Another important issue regarding data is their source. Do the data comprise
information from all individuals of interest, or from just some of the individuals?
Population data In population data, the data are from every individual of interest.
Sample data In sample data, the data are from only some of the individuals of interest.
It is important to know whether the data are population data or sample data. Data
from a specific population are fixed and complete. Data from a sample may vary
from sample to sample and are not complete.
Population parameter A population parameter is a numerical measure that describes an aspect of

a population.
Sample statistic A sample statistic is a numerical measure that describes an aspect of a s ample.
For instance, if we have data from all the individuals who have climbed Mt. Everest,
then we have population data. The proportion of males in the population of all climbers
who have conquered Mt. Everest is an example of a parameter.
Looking Forward
On the other hand, if our data come from just some of the climbers, we have
In later chapters we will use information based sample data. The proportion of male climbers in the sample is an example of a
on a sample and sample statistics to estimate statistic. Note that different samples may have different values for the proportion
population parameters (Chapter 7) or make
of male climbers. One of the important features of sample statistics is that they
decisions about the value of population param-
eters (Chapter 8). can vary from sample to sample, whereas population parameters are fixed for a
given population.
Example 1 Using Basic Terminology

The Hawaii Department of Tropical Agriculture is conducting a study of ready-to-
harvest pineapples in an experimental field.
(a) The pineapples are the objects (individuals) of the study. If the researchers are
interested in the individual weights of pineapples in the field, then the variable
consists of weights. At this point, it is important to specify units of measurement
and degrees of accuracy of measurement. The weights could be measured to

the nearest ounce or gram. Weight is a quantitative variable because it is a nu-
merical measure. If weights of all the ready-to-harvest pineapples in the field
are included in the data, then we have a population. The average weight of all
ready-to-harvest pineapples in the field is a parameter.
(b) Suppose the researchers also want data on taste. A panel of tasters rates the
pineapples according to the categories “poor,” “acceptable,” and “good.” Only
some of the pineapples are included in the taste test. In this case, the variable
is taste. This is a qualitative or categorical variable. Because only some of the
pineapples in the field are included in the study, we have a sample. The pro-
Gallo Images/Landbouweekblad/Getty Images
portion of pineapples in the sample with a taste rating of “good” is a statistic.
Throughout this text, you will encounter guided exercises embedded in the
reading material. These exercises are included to give you an opportunity to work
immediately with new ideas. The questions guide you through appropriate analy-
sis. Cover the answers on the right side (an index card will fit this purpose). After
you have thought about or written down your own response, check the answers.
If there are several parts to an exercise, check each part before you continue. You
should be able to answer most of these exercise questions, but don’t skip them—
they are important.
guided exercise 1 Using Basic Terminology

How important is music education in school (K–12)? The Harris Poll did an online survey of 2286 adults (aged 18 and older)
within the United States. Among the many questions, the survey asked if the respondents agreed or disagreed with the state-
ment, “Learning and habits from music education equip people to be better team players in their careers.” In the most recent
survey, 71% of the study participants agreed with the statement.
(a) Identify the individuals of the study and the The individuals are the 2286 adults who participated in
variable. the online survey. The variable is the response agree or
disagree with the statement that music education equips
people to be better team players in their careers.
(b) Do the data comprise a sample? If so, what is the The data comprise a sample of the population of
underlying population? responses from all adults in the United States.
(c) Is the variable qualitative or quantitative? Qualitative — the categories are the two possible
response’s, agrees or disagrees with the statement that
music education equips people to be better team players
in their careers.
(d) Identify a quantitative variable that might be of Age or income might be of interest.
interest.
(e) Is the proportion of respondents in the sample Statistic—the proportion is computed from sample data.
who agree with the statement regarding music
education and effect on careers a statistic or a
parameter?
Levels of Measurement: Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, Ratio

We have categorized data as either qualitative or quantitative. Another way to clas-
sify data is according to one of the four levels of measurement. These levels indicate
the type of arithmetic that is appropriate for the data, such as ordering, taking differ-
ences, or taking ratios.
Levels of Measurement Levels of Measurement

Nominal level The nominal level of measurement applies to data that consist of names, labels,
or categories. There are no implied criteria by which the data can be ordered from
smallest to largest.
Ordinal level The ordinal level of measurement applies to data that can be arranged in
order. However, differences between data values either cannot be determined or
are meaningless.
Interval level The interval level of measurement applies to data that can be arranged in order.
In addition, differences between data values are meaningful.
Ratio level The ratio level of measurement applies to data that can be arranged in order. In
addition, both differences between data values and ratios of data values are mean-
ingful. Data at the ratio level have a true zero.
Example 2 Levels of Measurement

Identify the type of data.
(a) Taos, Acoma, Zuni, and Cochiti are the names of four Native American pueblos
from the population of names of all Native American pueblos in Arizona and
New Mexico.
Michelle Dulieu/Shutterstock.com
SOLUTION: These data are at the nominal level. Notice that these data values
are simply names. By looking at the name alone, we cannot determine if one
name is “greater than or less than” another. Any ordering of the names would be
numerically meaningless.
(b) In a high school graduating class of 319 students, Jim ranked 25th, June ranked
19th, Walter ranked 10th, and Julia ranked 4th, where 1 is the highest rank.
SOLUTION: These data are at the ordinal level. Ordering the data clearly makes
sense. Walter ranked higher than June. Jim had the lowest rank, and Julia the
highest. However, numerical differences in ranks do not have meaning. The dif-
ference between June’s and Jim’s ranks is 6, and this is the same difference that
exists between Walter’s and Julia’s ranks. However, this difference doesn’t really
mean anything significant. For instance, if you looked at grade point average,
Walter and Julia may have had a large gap between their grade point averages,
whereas June and Jim may have had closer grade point averages. In any rank-
ing system, it is only the relative standing that matters. Computed differences
between ranks are meaningless.
iStockphoto.com/Korban Schwabi
(c) Body temperatures (in degrees Celsius) of trout in the Yellowstone River.
SOLUTION: These data are at the interval level. We can certainly order the data,
and we can compute meaningful differences. However, for Celsius-scale tem-
peratures, there is not an inherent starting point. The value 08C may seem to be a
starting point, but this value does not indicate the state of “no heat.” Furthermore,
it is not correct to say that 208C is twice as hot as 108C.
(d) Length of trout swimming in the Yellowstone River.

SOLUTION: These data are at the ratio level. An 18-inch trout is three times as
long as a 6-inch trout. Observe that we can divide 6 into 18 to determine a mean-
ingful ratio of trout lengths.
In summary, there are four levels of measurement. The nominal level is con-
sidered the lowest, and in ascending order we have the ordinal, interval, and ratio
levels. In general, calculations based on a particular level of measurement may not be
appropriate for a lower level.
PROCEDURE
How to determine the level of measurement
The levels of measurement, listed from lowest to highest, are nominal,
ordinal, interval, and ratio. To determine the level of measurement of data,
state the highest level that can be justified for the entire collection of data.
Consider which calculations are suitable for the data.
Level of
Measurement Suitable Calculation
Nominal We can put the data into categories.
Ordinal We can order the data from smallest to largest or “worst” to “best.”
Each data value can be compared with another data value.
Interval We can order the data and also take the differences between data
values. At this level, it makes sense to compare the differences
between data values. For instance, we can say that one data
value is 5 more than or 12 less than another data value.
Ratio We can order the data, take differences, and also find the ratio
between data values. For instance, it makes sense to say that
one data value is twice as large as another.
What Does the Level of Measurement Tell Us?

The level of measurement tells us which arithmetic processes are appropriate for the
data. This is important because different statistical processes require various kinds of
arithmetic. In some instances all we need to do is count the number of data that meet
specified criteria. In such cases nominal (and higher) data levels are all appropriate. In
other cases we need to order the data, so nominal data would not be suitable. Many
other statistical processes require division, so data need to be at the ratio level. Just
keep the nature of the data in mind before beginning statistical computations.
guided exercise 2 Levels of Measurement

The following describe different data associated with a state senator. For each data entry, indicate the corresponding level
of measurement.
(a) The senator’s name is Sam Wilson. Nominal level
(b) The senator is 58 years old. Ratio level. Notice that age has a meaningful zero. It
makes sense to give age ratios. For instance, Sam is twice
as old as someone who is 29.
Continued
Guided Exercise 2 continued
(c) The years in which the senator was elected to the Interval level. Dates can be ordered, and the difference
Senate are 2000, 2006, and 2012. between dates has meaning. For instance, 2006 is 6 years
later than 2000. However, ratios do not make sense. The
year 2000 is not twice as large as the year 1000. In addi-
tion, the year 0 does not mean “no time.”
(d) The senator’s total taxable income last year was Ratio level. It makes sense to say that the senator’s
$878,314. income is 10 times that of someone earning $87,831.
(e) The senator surveyed his constituents regarding Ordinal level. The choices can be ordered, but there is no
his proposed water protection bill. The choices for meaningful numerical difference between two choices.
response were strong support, support, neutral,
against, or strongly against.
(f) The senator’s marital status is “married.” Nominal level
(g) A leading news magazine claims the senator Ordinal level. Ranks can be ordered, but differences
is ranked seventh for his voting record on bills between ranks may vary in meaning.
regarding public education.
Critical
Thinking “Data! Data! Data!” he cried impatiently. “I can’t make bricks without clay.”
Sherlock Holmes said these words in The Adventure of the Copper Beeches by
Sir Arthur Conan Doyle.
Reliable statistical conclusions require reliable data. This section has provided
some of the vocabulary used in discussing data. As you read a statistical study or con-
duct one, pay attention to the nature of the data and the ways they were c ollected.
When you select a variable to measure, be sure to specify the process and re-
quirements for measurement. For example, if the variable is the weight of ready-
to-harvest pineapples, specify the unit of weight, the accuracy of measurement,
and maybe even the particular scale to be used. If some weights are in ounces
and others in grams, the data are fairly useless.
Another concern is whether or not your measurement instrument truly mea
sures the variable. Just asking people if they know the geographic location of the
island nation of Fiji may not provide accurate results. The answers may reflect
the fact that the respondents want you to think they are knowledgeable. Asking
people to locate Fiji on a map may give more reliable results.
The level of measurement is also an issue. You can put numbers into a
calculator or computer and do all kinds of arithmetic. However, you need to
judge whether the operations are meaningful. For ordinal data such as restaurant
rankings, you can’t conclude that a 4-star restaurant is “twice as good” as a 2-star
restaurant, even though the number 4 is twice 2.
Continued
Critical Thinking continued

Are the data from a sample, or do they comprise the entire population?
Sample data can vary from one sample to another! This means that if you are
studying the same statistic from two different samples of the same size, the
data values may be different. In fact, the ways in which sample statistics vary
among different samples of the same size will be the focus of our study from
Section 6.4 on.
Interpretation When you work with sample data, carefully consider the population
from which they are drawn. Observations and analysis of the sample are applicable to only
the population from which the sample is drawn.
Descriptive statistics Descriptive statistics involves methods of organizing, picturing, and summarizing
information from samples or populations.
Inferential statistics Inferential statistics involves methods of using information from a sample to
draw conclusions regarding the population.
Looking Forward We will look at methods of descriptive statistics in Chapters 2, 3, and 9. These
methods may be applied to data from samples or populations.
The purpose of collecting and analyzing data Sometimes we do not have access to an entire population. At other times, the
is to obtain information. Statistical methods
difficulties or expense of working with the entire population is prohibitive. In such
provide us tools to obtain information from
data. These methods break into two branches. cases, we will use inferential statistics together with probability. These are the topics
of Chapters 4 through 11.
Viewpoint The First Measured Century

The 20th century saw measurements of aspects of American life that had never been systematically
studied before. Social conditions involving crime, sex, food, fun, religion, and work were numerically
investigated. The measurements and survey responses taken over the entire century reveal unsus-
pected statistical trends. The First Measured Century is a book by Caplow, Hicks, and Wattenberg.
It is also a PBS documentary available on video. For more information, visit the PBS web site and find
the link to the First Measured Century documentary.
SECTION 1.1 Problems 1. Statistical Literacy In a statistical study what is the difference between an
individual and a variable?
2. Statistical Literacy Are data at the nominal level of measurement quantita-
tive or qualitative?
3. Statistical Literacy What is the difference between a parameter and a
statistic?
4. Statistical Literacy For a set population, does a parameter ever change? If
there are three different samples of the same size from a set population, is it
possible to get three different values for the same statistic?
5. Critical Thinking Numbers are often assigned to data that are categorical in
nature.
(a) Consider these number assignments for category items describing
electronic ways of expressing personal opinions:
1 5 Twitter; 2 5 e-mail; 3 5 text message; 4 5 Facebook; 5 5 blog
Are these numerical assignments at the ordinal data level or higher?

Explain.
(b) Consider these number assignments for category items describing useful-
ness of customer service:
1 5 not helpful; 2 5 somewhat helpful; 3 5 very helpful;

4 5 extremely helpful
Are these numerical assignments at the ordinal data level? Explain. What
about at the interval level or higher? Explain.
6. Interpretation Lucy conducted a survey asking some of her friends to spec-

ify their favorite type of TV entertainment from the following list of choices:
sitcom; reality; documentary; drama; cartoon; other
Do Lucy’s observations apply to all adults? Explain. From the description of

the survey group, can we draw any conclusions regarding age of participants,
gender of participants, or education level of participants?
7. Marketing: Fast Food A national survey asked 1261 U.S. adult fast-food
customers which meal (breakfast, lunch, dinner, snack) they ordered.
(a) Identify the variable.
(b) Is the variable quantitative or qualitative?
(c) What is the implied population?
8. Advertising: Auto Mileage What is the average miles per gallon (mpg) for
all new hybrid small cars? Using Consumer Reports, a random sample of
such vehicles gave an average of 35.7 mpg.
9. Ecology: Wetlands Government agencies carefully monitor water quality and

its effect on wetlands (Reference: Environmental Protection Agency Wetland
Report EPA 832-R-93-005). Of particular concern is the concentration of
nitrogen in water draining from fertilized lands. Too much nitrogen can kill
fish and wildlife. Twenty-eight samples of water were taken at random from
a lake. The nitrogen concentration (milligrams of nitrogen per liter of water)
was determined for each sample.
10. Archaeology: Ireland The archaeological site of Tara is more than 4000
years old. Tradition states that Tara was the seat of the high kings of Ireland.
Because of its archaeological importance, Tara has received extensive study
(Reference: Tara: An Archaeological Survey by Conor Newman, Royal Irish
Academy, Dublin). Suppose an archaeologist wants to estimate the density of
ferromagnetic artifacts in the Tara region. For this purpose, a random sample
of 55 plots, each of size 100 square meters, is used. The number of ferromag-
netic artifacts for each plot is determined.
11. Student Life: Levels of Measurement Categorize these measurements asso-

ciated with student life according to level: nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio.
(a) Length of time to complete an exam
(b) Time of first class
(c) Major field of study
(d) Course evaluation scale: poor, acceptable, good
(e) Score on last exam (based on 100 possible points)
(f) Age of student
12. Business: Levels of Measurement Categorize these measurements associated

with a robotics company according to level: nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio.
(a) Salesperson’s performance: below average, average, above average
(b) Price of company’s stock
(c) Names of new products
(d) Temperature (8F) in CEO’s private office
(e) Gross income for each of the past 5 years
(f) Color of product packaging
13. Fishing: Levels of Measurement Categorize these measurements associated

with fishing according to level: nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio.
(a) Species of fish caught: perch, bass, pike, trout
(b) Cost of rod and reel
(c) Time of return home
(d) Guidebook rating of fishing area: poor, fair, good
(e) Number of fish caught
(f) Temperature of water
14. Education: Teacher Evaluation If you were going to apply statistical

methods to analyze teacher evaluations, which question form, A or B, would
be better?
Form A: In your own words, tell how this teacher compares with other teachers
you have had.
Form B: Use the following scale to rank your teacher as compared with other
teachers you have had.
1 2 3 4 5
worst below average above best
average average
15. Critical Thinking You are interested in the weights of backpacks students
carry to class and decide to conduct a study using the backpacks carried by
30 students.
(a) Give some instructions for weighing the backpacks. Include unit of
measure, accuracy of measure, and type of scale.
(b) Do you think each student asked will allow you to weigh his or her
backpack?
(c) Do you think telling students ahead of time that you are going to weigh
their backpacks will make a difference in the weights?
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Cecil, amazed, bewildered, could merely utter, in a tone of sad and
reproachful inquiry, "Blanche!"
A stifled, agonizing sob burst from her; but clinging closer to her
protector, she hurried him on.
Cecil leaned against the banister for support. As Blanche reached the
bottom of the stairs, she could not resist giving a parting look; and the
anguish of the face which then met her eye so completely changed her
feelings, that, forgetting all Captain Heath had said, she flew up the stairs
and threw herself into Cecil's arms, exclaiming, "My own beloved, you will
not send me from you?"
He pressed her frantically to his heart, and carried her back to their
apartment.
Captain Heath's face was contracted by a fearful spasm as he slowly

sought his own room. Once more were his hopes crushed; once more had he
to renounce the visions of exquisite bliss which filled his soul. On the point
of for ever separating Blanche from her unworthy lover, as he had imagined,
and with the opening which that separation made for his own future
prospects, he now again saw that the struggle was useless, and that Blanche
was irretrievably lost to him.
CHAPTER XXIV.
THE DENOUEMENT.
Four days afterwards, Meredith Vyner received this letter:—
"They are married at last; and are now gone to Broadstairs for the
honeymoon. It is a sad affair; but it was inevitable. May she be happy!
"I was to have given her away; but, from some caprice on his part, it was
not permitted; and the office was performed by one of his club friends, a
certain Mr. Forrester. I was present, however; though not invited. From one
of the side pews, I witnessed the ceremony. The last words of dear Blanche
were, that I should intercede for her with you; which, God knows, I would,
did I think that a father's heart needed the intercession! But your kind nature
is quite assurance enough to me.
"I am forced to go to Italy, to join my brother; and, as I have no time to

lose, Mrs. Vyner will, I dare say, excuse my taking formal leave. Pray, let my
trunks be packed, and forwarded to me, at Southampton, where I shall be to-
morrow.
"You shall hear further from me soon; now I am too busy to write more."
In the calm tone of this letter there is the same stoicism which always
enabled this brave man if not to conquer, at least to conceal his emotions.
Who could have suspected the misery which really lay concealed in those
few lines?
The adroitness with which he recommended Blanche to her father's

generosity, showed how affection will sharpen the wits, and make even the
most candid people cunning, to attain their ends. He knew that Mrs. Vyner
had too much need of money, not to grudge any bestowed upon the girls; and
that Vyner himself was little likely to suffer his regard for his child, such as
it was, to withstand his wife's persuasion. Therefore, to have pleaded in
Blanche's favour, would have been to call down certain defeat. Instead of
that, he adroitly assumed that Vyner could not need any intercession—could
not, as a father, do otherwise than pardon his daughter. To refuse the pardon,
would therefore be to act contrary to all expectation. The question was thus
not discussed, but settled.
The second point in his letter is, the journey to Italy: that needs only a
very brief comment: he hoped, in the confusion of foreign scenes, to distract
his thoughts from grief.
Farewell, then, thou brave, honest, self-sacrificing man! May travel bring
oblivion! may time bring consolation to thy sad and noble heart!
BOOK III.
CHAPTER I.
ROSE VYNER TO FANNY WORSLEY.
WYTTON HALL, 14th Oct. 1840.
MY DEAR FANNY,
Since poor Blanche's unfortunate marriage—and yet why should I call it

unfortunate? has she not married the man of her choice, and is not that the
great ideal we maidens all aspire to? However, as it is the fashion here to
speak of it as a "most unfortunate business," over which mama weeps (I
don't clearly see why) and papa storms, I have caught the trick, and called it
so to you.
To resume this broken sentence; or rather to begin it anew: since

Blanche's fortunate marriage, our days have passed equably enough; but
although not characterized by any "incidents," nor affording any "news,"
they have not been stupid. Life has not been stagnant. The slow growth of
passions has proceeded without interruption. Marmaduke Ashley has
become the devoted slave of Violet. I call him her Brazilian Othello. I made
her very angry yesterday, by telling her that she should be less cruelly
haughty to him, "for is he not," said I, "a man and a brother?" They would
make a superb couple, for although I tease her with references to gentlemen
of colour, and with congratulatory remarks respecting the chain being
"broken, and Africa being free," you must know that his complexion is not
really darker than that of a Spaniard. And you know how lovely she is—no
you don't, you have not seen her since she shook off girlish things, and
cannot imagine how she has altered.
Poor Marmaduke, although he has made some impression on her, will

have, I fear, to languish a long while ere the haughty beauty condescends to
step down from her pedestal. Almost as long as I shall have to wait before
the modest Julius will understand, without my being forced to tell him, that
he is not absolutely indifferent to a certain saucy girl at whom he makes
sweet eyes.
You can't imagine how, every day, my admiration deepens for the little
man. I am always finding some new illustration of his excellence; always
hearing something which confirms my opinion of his nobility of soul.
Yesterday, I found that he was studying hard for the bar, not because he was
without fortune, but because he would not consent to his mother being
poorer at the death of his father than she had been before. He was the heir to
all the property, except a jointure; but he refused to enter into possession
while his mother lived, and as every man ought, he says, to be able to gain
his own livelihood, he has determined to gain his at the bar.
He has recently been exerting himself to procure a good subscription list

to a volume of poems. Here is the title. "GLOOMS AND GLEAMS. By One
who has suffered."
I am as a weed
Torn from the rock, on ocean's foam to sail,
Where'er the wave or tempest's breath prevail.
BYRON.
The mysterious one—the one who has suffered (what not specified!) is a
newly discovered wonder—the Sappho of Walton—the daughter of a linen-
draper.
According to Julius she is really a clever deserving girl, a little wild in

her notions, but with all the generosity of genius, which redeems her
affectations and her follies. She is too poor to venture on publication herself;
and I have just found that Julius, unable to secure a sufficient sum by
subscription, has undertaken to pay the printing expenses. He stipulated that
this should be a secret; but her grateful father disclosed it to Mrs. Roberts
(our housekeeper) who disclosed it to me. Imagine the gossip there will be in
Walton over this publication! How the papas and mamas, the uncles and
maiden aunts will moralize over the corruption of the age, and the wild
audacious vanity of their townswoman! A poetess in Walton? Why a volume
of poems—(unless they were low church effusions or the inspirations of
"advanced Christians"—) is itself a rarity. You know how slightly tainted
with literature the small towns of England usually are? I doubt if any are so
colourless as Walton. Dickens penetrates here—where does not his genial
sunshine penetrate?—but no other name of those blown from the brazenly
impudent trumpet of fame has ever found an echo in Walton. A poetess is,
consequently, looked upon as something short of a sorceress: a fearful and
Appalling Illustration of the Reckless March of Intellect which Devastates
the World!
Julius has already secured her an influential patron in Sir Chetsom

Chetsom, and his brother Tom Chetsom. The baronet is possessor of the
Dingles, a fine estate within three miles of Walton, and is looked up to as
one of the great people of the county. Such a figure as he is! I must sketch
him for your amusement.
Sir Chetsom Chetsom is not without considerable daring, for with the
weight of six or seven and sixty years upon his shoulders, he makes a gallant
dash at thirty. His whiskers are miraculously black, always well-oiled, and
stiffly curled; his eyebrows are of another black in virtue of his inheritance
from nature; and his hair is of a third black in virtue of Truefit's well directed
efforts at wigmanity. This threefold darkness, unsuspicious of a gray hair,
overshadows a sallow, wrinkled brow and cheeks, upon which a hare's foot
imitates the ruddy glow of youth with a sort of Vauxhall-by-daylight-
splendour. Under the genuine eyebrows, float two colourless eyes, between
which a high and well-shaped nose rears its haughty form. Frightfully
regular teeth, without a speck, without a gap, fill up the gash which
represents his mouth. A well-padded chest, and well-stayed waist, ending in
shrunken legs and excruciatingly tight-booted feet complete the physique of
this Adonis. His dress is a perpetual book of fashions!
Of the morale I know little, except that he never plays cards—flatters
himself he has not come to that yet—talks fluently of valtzing (particular
about sounding the w as v, as a young gentleman after his first German
lesson), adores Fanny Elssler, calls Grisi a naice leetle giarl enough, thinks
himself, and wishes to be accepted as, a remorseless Lovelace, and is always
afraid of talking too long with one woman, lest he should "compromise her."
This ferocious lady-killer, whom you will at once place amongst that
very terrific and numerous class of men which I have christened Murders,
has a brother, whom I wonder he does not disown, so frankly does that
brother bear his age. Tom Chetsom, "jolly Tom Chetsom," as he is called, is
"a tun of a man," with a bald, shiny pate fringed with straggling grey hair, a
rubicund face, a vinous nose, and a moist, oystery eye, rolling in rheum. Yet
this implacable exhibition of age in a younger brother is tolerated by the
baronet, who is blind enough, or stupid enough, not to be aware of the
comment it is on his own resplendent juvenility!
Tom Chetsom, careless bon vivant as he seems, and is, conceals beneath
that rubicund jollity an astute selfishness, and a real knowledge of life and
human nature, to which his elder brother makes great pretension. But that
which the elder seems to be without being it, the younger is without seeming
it, as Browning would say.
Well, these are the patrons selected for our Walton Sappho. They are to
launch her into the "great world." Sir Chetsom has permitted the dedication
of Glooms and Gleams to himself. He is to introduce the volume into the
"first circles," while Tom Chetsom is to bruit its fame in all the clubs.
I have not yet seen the poetess herself; but propose to fall in with the
general "rage," and pay a visit at the Grange some day when she is there. I
will give you a full description.
And there is an end of my budget.

CHAPTER II.
THE WOMAN WITH A MISSION.

Ein starker Geist in einem zarten Leib
Ein zwitter zwischen Mann und Weib,
Gleich ungeschickt zum Herrschen und zum Lieben,
Ein kind mit eines Riesen Waffen
Ein Mittelding von Weisen und von Affen!
SCHILLER.—Die Berühmte Frau.
Marmaduke and Violet, "so justly formed to meet by nature," have not, it
may be supposed, remained insensible to each other's charms. The
elopement of Blanche gave him several opportunities of making eloquent
remarks on the superiority of affection—the riches of the heart—to mere
worldly wealth; and to utter several stinging sarcasms on those who gave up
the worship of a loving heart, for the trumpery advantages of an
establishment and a position.
These sarcasms were, of course, meant for Mrs. Meredith Vyner, who
accepted them in bland silence, or made vague defences, saying that women
were often misguided, because the whole of the facts were not known.
Violet so entirely responded to his sentiments, and, without knowing the

previous connection between him and her mother, so unhesitatingly applied
those sarcasms to her, that she became more and more attracted to him, from
the fact that they alone seemed rightly to have read her mother's character.
Mrs. Meredith Vyner saw, with strangely mingled jealousy and pleasure,
the growing attachment of these two. She did not love Marmaduke: she had
never loved him in any high or generous sense of the term. But he had filled
her girlish imagination, and he still exercised a certain fascination over her.
She admired his beauty; she delighted in the sense of power exercised over
so fiery and impetuous a creature; it was exquisite flattery. To see her place
occupied in his heart was, therefore, singularly irritating. His anger was an
avowal of his love. His threats of vengeance, much as she might dread them,
were the threats of one who suffered in his love. And so clearly did she
perceive this, that it occasioned no surprise to observe how, in the same
measure as his attachment grew to Violet, his anger seemed to abate, his
mind no longer to run upon its old topics of inconstancy and vengeance. No
surprise, but great jealousy!
Other feelings mingled with this. She could not but be delighted to think
that Marmaduke had ceased to harbour any schemes against her peace: the
tiger was pacified, or attracted by other prey. This was not all. She hated
Violet, and watched the development of this passion with curious eagerness,
because in it she foresaw two sources of misery to her daughter. If they
married, she thought they would be mutually wretched, and it was in her
power at any time to make Violet horribly jealous, by informing her of
Marmaduke's early attachment. That was one source; another was, with a
little coquetry and cunning on her part, to bring him once more at her feet,
which, she doubted not, she could still effect.
Under the "still life" of what seemed the most uneventful of country
residences, under the smooth current of every-day occupations, such were
the tempests rumbling in the deeps, and ready at an instant to burst forth!
The drama was really there; it seemed to be elsewhere. The development and
collision of passions, out of which the dramas of life are constructed, were
circumscribed within the walls of the Hall and the Grange. But it was
elsewhere that the noisy bustle of event—noisy because of its emptiness—
attracted the attention of spectators, and seemed, by the talk occasioned, to
have absorbed all the interest which could possibly lie in the elements
afforded by the neighbourhood.
But, first, a word respecting one of the principal actors. I mean Hester
Mason, the poetess. Had Rose's letter, in which, according to promise, she
doubtless gave a detailed description of the Walton Sappho fallen into my
hands, you should have been treated with her lively account of this important
personage: her womanly acuteness and observation would have assuredly
delighted you. As it is, my matter-of-fact pen must be the substitute.
Hester Mason was five and twenty, and still wrote Miss before her name;
not because adorers were backward, but because they were Waltonians. They
had no "spirituality;" they had no "imaginings;" they had no "mission." Life
to them had no "earnestness;" they lived without a "purpose." Cowards, they
humbled themselves before "conventionalities," and dared not tell society to
its face that it was a lie. They went to church; they called themselves
Christians, because they followed an antiquated routine, and did not
comprehend the later "developements" of Christianity necessitated by the
"wants of the age." Above all, they shuddered at the true doctrine of social
regeneration, that, namely, of the emancipation of woman, and thought that
marriage should be indissoluble. They were humdrums!
Not to one of those could she descend; her soul was too lofty, her
passions too "devouring," to waste themselves on such "clods." Indeed, had
she been less of a "priestess," she might have been equally exclusive; since
the Waltonians were utterly without taste for literature, philosophy, or art;
and were as ill looking as the inhabitants of small towns usually are. Hester
had been thrice on a visit of a few days to London; she had seen Hyde Park
and its brilliant company; she had walked down St. James's-street and Pall
Mall, and on the doorsteps of the clubs had seen men who were gods
compared with the dandies of Walton. She had feasted upon contemporary
literature, and had written burning letters of wild enthusiasm to Bulwer, in
imitation of his "Florence Lascelles." She had dreamed ambitious dreams, in
which she held a sceptre in London society, and awoke to find herself in
Walton!
Hester was handsome, but coarse-featured. Her black hair and eyes gave
a certain éclat to a face ornamented with a nose which irredeemably
betrayed her low birth, and surmounted by a forehead too high and large for
beauty. She was about the middle height, and had a magnificent bust. Her
hands were large and coarse; her legs were—to express them in one word, I
should say they were Devonshire legs! In her dress, gait, and manner you
saw something which, though not positively vulgar, was distinctly not
ladylike; a certain brusquerie, almost pertness, and a dogmatism, which is at
all times shocking in a woman.
About the time when Julius St. John first interested himself in the
publication of her volume of poems, Hester, worn out with awaiting her
"ideal," and almost despairing of ever reigning in London society, began so
far to humble herself in her own eyes, as to admit the attentions of the
surgeon's apprentice, newly arrived at Walton. True it is that James Stone,
the foresaid apprentice, had a dash of London about him. He was not a
Waltonian, he was not a humdrum; so far from it, that he had the character of
a "rake!" He discoursed about the ballet; had been behind the scenes at the
theatres; was well-versed in Jullien's promenade concerts (then a novelty);
smoked a meerschaum; and when in full-dress turned his shirt-sleeve cuffs
over his coat, much to the amazement of the Waltonians, who imagined he
had just washed his hands, and had forgotten to turn back his cuffs, so little
did they appreciate the dandyism!
It may appear strange, but that little trait of elegance won more of
Hester's admiration than all his personal charms, and they were not few,
could have effected in a month. It gave him a London air. It made him so
superior to the provincial bumpkins, who laughed with coarse ridicule at an
elegance they could not understand. It was in vain Hester, bridling, told them
that the "pink of fashion and the mould of form"—the all-accomplished
Count D'Orsay—wore his cuffs in that way. They only laughed the more,
and christened Stone—the Walton De Orsay.
As long as Stone held out against the ridicule which his innovation
excited, Hester accorded him her sympathy, and almost her love. But when
he yielded to public opinion, and turned back his cuffs to their original place,
she suddenly cooled towards him. It was a submission to conventionalities.
It was a truckling to society. It was cowardice.
He purchased his pardon, however, and by a speech so adroit that in

Walton it must have appeared worthy at least of a Lauzun—had Lauzun's
name ever been heard there.
"If I do not yield this trifle to public opinion they will force me to quit
this place, and to quit the place would be quitting you."—She forgave him.
But her pardon availed him little. Invited by Mrs. St. John to the Grange,
patronized by the "great people" round Walton, her volume on the eve of
being launched into the wide sea of literature, she felt all her old ambition
revive within her, and scarcely forgave herself for having idled away an hour
with such a youth as Stone—too poor for a husband, too insignificant for a
lover.
The patronage of Sir Chetsom Chetsom completed her intoxication. That
graceless old Lovelace, struck with the beauty of his protégé, saw at once the
facilities afforded him for an intrigue. He was constantly at her father's. Her
poems made the pretext of his visits. Her charms formed the staple of his
conversation; varied by accounts of London society, and visions of the
brilliant career which awaited her if she only determined boldly to enter it.
A sorry figure, truly, was the wigged and whiskered baronet for a girl
with "bright imaginings," and at five and twenty, to choose as her lover; and
yet, if I have contrived to indicate her character properly, the reader will not
be surprised at her lending a willing ear to the old boy's artful flatteries.
He was not young, but he was rich. He had no "imaginings," but he

could tell of the splendours of the capital. He had no "mission," but he wore
bottes vernies. He was without "earnestness," but he talked fluently of all the
new works, and had met most of the literary lions in society.
More than all, he was Sir Chetsom Chetsom, and she was Hester Mason
the linen-draper's daughter. Rank gives a lustre which dazzles even virtue;
and Hester had very few scruples of virtue to struggle against; so that
ambition found her an easy victim. She coquetted—she was "cruel" to her
adorer; not because she was afraid to yield, but because she wished to sell
her honour dearly.
CHAPTER III.
WHAT WAS SAID OF THE WALTON SAPPHO.
"Is it not shocking?" said Mrs. Ruddles, the curate's wife, to Mrs.
Spedley, the surgeon's better half, as she sipped the smoking bohea, and
commented on the ongoings of Walton, and its "muse" in particular,—"Is it
not shocking to witness such depravity? To think of his taking up with such
trumpery as Hester Mason!"
"And to think of her encouraging the wicked, old villain!" ejaculated the
indignant Mrs. Spedley.
"And her father to shut his eyes!" suggested the post-mistress of Walton.
"What can she expect will be the end of it?"
"I'm sure, I can't say."
"He's married, too," said Stone, angrily; for Stone was now utterly
neglected: he had even turned up his shirt cuffs, with D'Orsay magnificence,
on the preceding Sunday; and still Hester had not vouchsafed him a look.
"Married! yes; but he could get nobody to live with him; and his wife has
been separated many years," observed Mrs. Ruddles; "and no wonder!"
"So that Hester falls with her eyes open ... she can't expect him to marry
her—the minx!" said Mrs. Spedley.
"Oh, no. Besides, she looks upon marriage as immoral."
"Ah!"
"Yes, yes: very comfortable notions those are for some people."
"Very. This comes of writing poetry!" gravely and philosophically

remarked the surgeon's wife.
Her husband entered at that moment.
"Pretty poetry it is!" he said. "Hang me, if I can make head or tail of it.
Long words and inflated sentiments—nothing else!"
"Such trash!" scornfully added Mrs. Ruddles.
"So frivolous!" chimed in Mrs. Spedley.
"As if there was anything in that, to cock up one's head about," pursued
Mrs. Ruddles.
"And, to fancy herself so superior to every one else."
"Well, give me good, common sense in a woman," fervently ejaculated

Spedley.
"And me."
"And me."
"Oh, and me."
"It was but last night," said Spedley, "that she took upon herself to set me
right about the vote by ballot; and, instead of arguing the point, she told me
that I was incapable of forming an opinion on it, ignorant as I was of the
rapid developments of humanity. To be sure, I was,—how should I know
what she meant by that?"
"He—he—he!" tittered Mrs. Spedley.—"Developments of humanity,

indeed!"
"That is a philosophy she understands," said Stone, sarcastically; "and

will certainly give us an illustration of it herself shortly——"
Stone chuckled immensely at this double entendre; and the ladies,

forgetting their prudery in their spite, laughed too, and declared that nothing
was more likely.
That is only a sample of what was said in Walton. The whole town was
busy with the event. Envy aided tittle-tattle; and not a voice was raised in
Hester's defence. Sir Chetsom to visit her! Sir Chetsom to drive up to her
door! Sir Chetsom to send her game! Sir Chetsom to take her drives in his
curricle. It was enough to make an English community, like that of Walton,
mad. How she escaped lapidation is a mystery.
Hester knew the scandal she occasioned, and triumphed in it. To be the
mark for jealousy, was a condition affixed to superiority. Detraction was the
tribute impotence paid to power. She was hated—she knew it—how could it
be otherwise?—was she not a genius? At their gossip she laughed; with
society and its sophisms she was at open war.
Having had this one glimpse of the state of opinion in Walton, let us now
turn our attention to the Hall. The St. Johns, Marmaduke, Tom Wincot, and
the family, are in the drawing room. Julius holds the volume of Hester's
poems in his hands, having just finished reading it aloud:—
"Now, Mr. Vyner," said Julius, "do you rescind your harsh judgment; will
you not admit that there is at least great facility in these poems?"
"Facility?" replied Vyner. "Yes, yes,
Nempe incomposito dixi pede currere versus.
I find too much of it: fatal facility, betraying the want of that labor limæ,
without which no work can have value."
"She will learn the difficult 'art to blot' in time," suggested Julius; "at
present she is all exuberance."
"Is not over luxuriance," said Violet, "rather the property of weeds than
of flowers?"
"Certainly," said Vyner. "The volume wants weeding sadly. You know
what 'Horace' says?—
Ut brevitate opus, ut currat sententia, neu se

Impediat verbis lassas onerantibus aures."
"Well," interrupted Rose; "but not to be so critical, do you not think the
volume shows great power?"
"Rather the will to be great than the power," said Marmaduke. "It is
daring and extravagant, but it does not seem to me to have the daring and
extravagance of genius."
"Doesn't it stwike you as vewy stwange that a young woman should wite
in such twemendous misewy? Nothing but seductions, delusions, bwoken
hearts, pwostwated spiwits, agonies of wemorse, tewible pwedictions,
wetched wevewies, and all that sort of thing! Besides, what does she
pwopose when she wepeatedly weitewates the necessity of some better and
more weflective Chwistianity?"
"Those are the extravagances I speak of."
"I confess," said Violet, "I do not like the tricks she plays with language:
surely all those uncouth compounds, and those obtrusive vowels which
everybody else consents to drop, are useless affectations?"
"Those are the conquests of the New School," said Marmaduke.
"I thought that our great poets had found the language harmonious and
flexible enough."
"You see, Mr. St. John," said Rose, laughing, "they are determined to
pull your poetess to pieces. Don't hear any more. I will admire her with you,
and we shall form the fit audience, though few."
The conversation did not cease here; but we have heard enough. Let us
hurry, therefore, to Belgravia, where resides Sir Chetsom Chetsom, who has
been forced to run up to town for a few days, and is now seated opposite his
brother, his hand upon the claret decanter, listening to a brotherly
remonstrance.
"I tell you, Chet, she is une intriguante: underneath all that romance and
extravagance, I see a very cool calculation. In the letter you have just read
me, I divine her character."
"What is there in that to make you suspicious?"
"Oh! no single passage, but the whole tone. Do but consider for a
moment. Here are you, a married man, writing love-letters to an unmarried
girl; she does not repulse you—she does not even pretend to be offended—
she says nothing about your wife, nothing about the unmistakeable nature of
your intentions."
"But I tell you, Tom, the giarl is decidedly fond of me."

"Humph."
"You doubt it?"
"Considerably."
"Very well, very well. I, who see her, who watch her, and who flatter
myself know something of women—I think so, and that is enough."
"Do you ever look in the glass, Chet?"
"Often."
"And the result is?"
"Very different from what must occur in your case, Tom, if ever you
venture on such a piece of temerity."
"And you think yourself still capable of inspiring a passion?"
"The thing is done."
"And you are done, Chet," said Tom Chetsom, placing one bulbous
finger at the side of his vinous nose, and closing one oystery eye, by way of
pantomimic comment on his words.
"You don't know women, Tom."
"Well, let us grant for a moment that you have made an impression; don't
you see the imprudence of having an intrigue so near your home, in a little
place where every action is noticed and discussed?"
"I don't care a fig what they discuss. That's the giarl's look out, not mine,
damme! If neither she nor her father object to my visits, why should I be
squeamish?"
"Why? Because you will be the laughter of the county."
"Thank ye, Tom."

"I'm serious, Chet. Your age is tolerably well known there, and you may
imagine the gossip and the ridicule which will attach to any affair of yours
with a young girl. It will be the talk of the whole county."
Sir Chetsom knew that quite as well as his knowing brother; but what his
brother did not know, was that the great attraction in this intrigue consisted
in the very fact so distinctly enunciated: "It will be the talk of the whole
county!" He wished it to be so. He anticipated the scandal, and rejoiced
thereat. He heard the chorus of virtuous matrons declaiming against his
"wickedness," and the sound was exquisitely flattering. He shook his head
with an air of knowing satisfaction as he read (in his mind's eye) the
paragraphs in the local papers upbraiding him for his villainy. The phrase
"The wretch! at his age to be seducing women!" flattered his anticipative ear
more sweetly than any strain from Beethoven or Mozart could lull the spirit
of a musician.
Tom Chetsom, frank old fellow, never once attempting to conceal a

wrinkle, or to disguise a bald patch, could not comprehend his brother's
secret pride in being made a butt. He understood the vanity of his brother's
dandyism and juvenility: he saw specimens enough of that at his club. But
knowing how all men, and above all men Sir Chetsom, shrunk from ridicule,
it was a puzzle to him that the inevitable ridicule of his intrigue with Hester
should not be a bugbear to frighten him away. He forgot that amidst all the
ridicule and reprobation, there would be a tacit acknowledgment of Sir
Chetsom's lady-killing powers; and for that acknowledgment he could
scarcely pay too dearly.
As a mere safeguard for his vanity, and not out of any illiberality, he had
from the first determined upon making no settlement on Hester, in case she
should consent to live with him. If his intrigue cost him anything, the laugh
would justly be turned against him as a dupe. If it cost him nothing, the
world would storm at his meanness, but they would believe in his power.
CHAPTER IV.
PROPHECIES FULFILLED.
"What makes you so serious to-day, Mrs. St. John?" said Violet, about a
week afterwards.
"I am getting anxious about my protégé. It was my Julius who introduced

her to the notice of Sir Chetsom Chetsom; and I fear no good will come of
it."
"Are you, then, of the Walton party?" asked Violet. "And do you lend an
ear to all the scandal of that miserable place? Consider Sir Chetsom's age."
"Yes," said Rose; "but consider also his pretensions. We knew Sir
Chetsom is old; but he wants to be thought young."
"I assure you," said Mrs. St. John, "it makes me very uneasy. Julius has
already taken the liberty of speaking to him on the subject, as strongly as he
could; but Sir Chetsom only laughed at what he called virtuous scruples. My
only hope is, that Hester looks upon their difference of age and station as a
sufficient warrant for an intimacy which she would not otherwise allow. And
yet I fear it is not so. I hope I may wrong her. I do not wish to think
uncharitably; but from what I have observed of late, I think she is ambitious
and unscrupulous."
"We must remember," said Violet, "that her very opinions on the
emancipation of woman would lead her to adopt a freedom of manner,
which, though it might be very innocent, would be so unlike the conduct of
well-educated girls, that we, judging her by the ordinary rules, should be
guilty of great injustice."
Mrs. St. John shook her head.
"Mrs. St. John demurs," said Rose.

"I do, indeed. I look with suspicion on those opinions. When I see a
woman disdaining the ordinary notions of society, I expect to see her follow
out her own opinions, and disdain the ordinary practices of society."
Meredith Vyner joined them.
"We are discussing the old subject, Hester Mason," said Mrs. St. John.
"And giving her all the virtues under the sun, poetry included," said
Vyner. "Well, you have chosen a good subject. We don't often meet with
such a paragon. Where, indeed, in this prosaic place should we look for such
another
Cui Pudor, et Justitiæ soro

Incorrupta Fides, nudaque Veritas,
Quando ullum inveniet parem?
"By the irony of your tone," said Mrs. St. John, "I suspect you have
heard something new about her."
"No, nothing new; at least nothing unexpected."
"What is it? Pray, let us hear it."
"The most natural thing in the world she last night went off with Sir
Chetsom Chetsom. Interdum deliramus senes, as Plautus saith."
This information was received in silence. Mrs. St. John coloured deeply,
and then turned pale. She was greatly hurt, because she considered herself in
some measure the cause of this misfortune, by having first brought Hester
into notice, and then having introduced her to Sir Chetsom.
It was too true. Hester had gone off; and Sir Chetsom had taken good
care that it should not be a secret.
It would need a more graphic brush than mine to paint the tumult of
scandalized virtue in Walton at this outrage upon public morals. To paint the

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