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 Chapter 11 — Industry Analysis

1. In analysing risk levels among industries, studies have found that

a. risk levels vary among different industries.
b. risk levels remained fairly constant across industries.
c. risk levels for the same industry varied over time.
d. risk levels for the same industry remain fairly constant over time.
e. choices a and d.
ANS: e

2. Which of the following statements about the business cycle is false?

a. Toward the end of a recession, financial stocks typically increase in value as
investment and borrowing activities accelerate.
b. Once the economy hits a trough and begins to recover, consumer durable stocks
become attractive investments.
c. Once the economy has recovered and current levels of consumption are sustainable,
businesses may consider modernising or expanding, thus stocks of capital goods
industries become attractive investments.
d. As the business cycle reaches a peak, inflation rates decrease.
e. None of the above (that is, all are true statements).
ANS: d

3. Which of the following is not considered a structural influence on the economy and
industry?
a. Demographics
b. Life-styles
c. International economics
d. Social values
e. Technology
ANS: c

4. Which of the following is not a stage in the industrial life cycle?

a. Early pioneering development
b. Rapid accelerating growth
c. Acquisition and consolidation
d. Mature growth
e. Stabilisation and market maturity
ANS: c

5. In which industrial life cycle stage do sales correlate highly with an economic series or the
economy in general?
a. Pioneering development
b. Rapidly accelerating growth
c. Mature growth
d. Stabilisation and market maturity
e. Deceleration of growth and decline
ANS: d

6. Which of the following statements concerning the competitive environment is true?

a. High fixed costs encourage firms to produce at a low level of capacity, in order to
minimise fixed cost per unit produced.

© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. This edition is intended for use outside of the US only, with content that may be different from the US
Edition. May not be scanned, copied, duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
 b. Low current prices relative to costs in an industry indicate low barriers to entry.
c. Substantial economies of scale do not give a current industry member an advantage
over a new firm.
d. The ability to substitute another product limits the industry's profit potential.
e. Buyers and suppliers do not influence the profitability of an industry.
ANS: d

7. The financial risk for the retail store industry is difficult to judge because of
a. convertible debt.
b. numerous building leases.
c. warrants.
d. variable operating profits.
e. extensive use of preferred stock.
ANS: b

8. When forecasting industry sales it can be useful to

a. utilise the industry life cycle.
b. use input-output analysis.
c. use the relationship between an industry and the aggregate economy.
d. all of the above.
e. none of the above.
ANS: d

9. The ____ of an industry is a function of retention rate and return on equity.

a. expected return
b. expected business risk
c. expected financial risk
d. expected growth rate
e. expected sales volatility
ANS: d

10. At the initial stage of an economic recovery,

a. financial stocks rise on expectations of increases in loan demand, housing
constructions and security offerings.
b. consumer durable stocks rise on expectations of rising consumer confidence and
personal income.
c. capital goods stocks rise on expectation of increases in business capital spending.
d. basic materials stocks rise on expectation of rising profit margins.
e. consumer staple stocks rise on expectations that consumers will continue to spend
on necessities.
ANS: b

11. If the economic outlook was such that you expected corporate earnings to decline,
consumers have excessive levels of debt, and there to be significant overcapacity in the
technology sector, then an appropriate asset allocation policy would be to:
a. overweight equity especially technology stocks and underweight bonds.
b. underweight equity especially technology stocks and overweight bonds.
c. overweight equity especially technology stocks and overweight bonds.
d. underweight equity especially technology stocks and underweight bonds.
e. none of the above.

© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. This edition is intended for use outside of the US only, with content that may be different from the US
Edition. May not be scanned, copied, duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
 ANS: b

12. Analysts should identify and monitor

a. the current and emerging trends and patterns affecting an industry.
b. the indicators of trends and patterns in structural factors.
c. the momentum toward change in trends and patterns in structural factors.
d. choices a and b
e. all of the above
ANS: e

13. Which of the following is not characteristic of the ‘growth’ phase in the industry life cycle?
a. Consumer will accept uneven quality
b. Products have technical and performance differentiation
c. High advertising costs
d. Low profits
e. Many competitors
ANS: d

14. Which of the following statements regarding cyclical industries is true?

a. Cyclical industries are affected by changes in consumer sentiment.
b. Cyclical industries are not affected by the consumer's willingness to borrow and
spend money.
c. Cyclical industries often outperform other sectors during a recession.
d. All of the above statements are true.
e. None of the above statements are true.
ANS: a

15. An increase in any of the following will cause the expected dividend growth rate to increase
for an industry except
a. profit margin.
b. total asset turnover.
c. return on equity.
d. dividend payout ratio.
e. financial leverage.
ANS: d

© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. This edition is intended for use outside of the US only, with content that may be different from the US
Edition. May not be scanned, copied, duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
The Project Gutenberg eBook of History of the inductive
sciences, from the earliest to the present time
This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States
and most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no
restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it
under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this
ebook or online at www.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the
United States, you will have to check the laws of the country where
you are located before using this eBook.

Title: History of the inductive sciences, from the earliest to the present time

Author: William Whewell

Release date: August 5, 2022 [eBook #68693]

Language: English

Original publication: United States: D. Appleton and Company, 1875

Credits: Ed Brandon

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK HISTORY OF

THE INDUCTIVE SCIENCES, FROM THE EARLIEST TO THE
PRESENT TIME ***
 HISTORY
OF THE

I N D U C T I V E S C I E N C E S.
VOLUME I.
 HISTORY
OF THE

I N D U C T I V E S C I E N C E S,
FROM

THE EARLIEST TO THE PRESENT TIME.

B Y W I L L I A M W H E W E L L , D . D.,
MASTER OF TRINITY COLLEGE, CAMBRIDGE.

THE THIRD EDITION, WITH ADDITIONS.

IN TWO VOLUMES.

VOLUME I.

NEW YORK:
D . A P P L E T O N A N D C O M P A N Y,
549 & 551 BROADWAY.

1875.
 TO SIR JOHN FREDERICK WILLIAM HERSCHEL,
K.G.H.

My dear Herschel,

It is with no common pleasure that I take up my pen to dedicate

these volumes to you. They are the result of trains of thought which
have often been the subject of our conversation, and of which the
origin goes back to the period of our early companionship at the
University. And if I had ever wavered in my purpose of combining
such reflections and researches into a whole, I should have derived
a renewed impulse and increased animation from your delightful
Discourse on a kindred subject. For I could not have read it without
finding this portion of philosophy invested with a fresh charm; and
though I might be well aware that I could not aspire to that large
share of popularity which your work so justly gained, I should still
have reflected, that something was due to the subject itself, and
should have hoped that my own aim was so far similar to yours, that
the present work might have a chance of exciting an interest in some
of your readers. That it will interest you, I do not at all hesitate to
believe.

If you were now in England I should stop here: but when a friend is
removed for years to a far distant land, we seem to acquire a right to
speak openly of his good qualities. I cannot, therefore, prevail upon
myself to lay down my pen without alluding to the affectionate
admiration of your moral and social, as well as intellectual
excellencies, which springs up in the hearts of your friends,
whenever you are thought of. They are much delighted to look upon
the halo of deserved fame which plays round your head but still
more, to recollect, 6 as one of them said, that your head is far from
being the best part about you.

May your sojourn in the southern hemisphere be as happy and

successful as its object is noble and worthy of you; and may your
return home be speedy and prosperous, as soon as your purpose is
attained.

Ever, my dear Herschel, yours,

W. Whewell.
March 22, 1837.

P.S. So I wrote nearly ten years ago, when you were at the Cape
of Good Hope, employed in your great task of making a complete
standard survey of the nebulæ and double stars visible to man. Now
that you are, as I trust, in a few weeks about to put the crowning
stone upon your edifice by the publication of your “Observations in
the Southern Hemisphere,” I cannot refrain from congratulating you
upon having had your life ennobled by the conception and happy
execution of so great a design, and once more offering you my
wishes that you may long enjoy the glory you have so well won.

W. W.
Trinity College, Nov. 22, 1846.
 PREFACE
TO THE THIRD EDITION.

I N the Prefaces to the previous Editions of this work, several

remarks were made which it is not necessary now to repeat to the
same extent. That a History of the Sciences, executed as this is, has
some value in the eyes of the Public, is sufficiently proved by the
circulation which it has obtained. I am still able to say that I have
seen no objection urged against the plan of the work, and scarcely
any against the details. The attempt to throw the history of each
science into Epochs at which some great and cardinal discovery
was made, and to arrange the subordinate events of each history as
belonging to the Preludes and the Sequels of such Epochs,
appears to be assented to, as conveniently and fairly exhibiting the
progress of scientific truth. Such a view being assumed, as it was a
constant light and guide to the writer in his task, so will it also, I think,
make the view of the reader far more clear and comprehensive than
it could otherwise be. With regard to the manner in which this plan
has been carried into effect with reference to particular writers and
their researches, as I have said, I have seen scarcely any objection
made. I was aware, as I stated at the outset, of the difficulty and
delicacy of the office which I had undertaken; but I had various
considerations to encourage me to go through it; and I had a trust,
which I 8 have as yet seen nothing to disturb, that I should be able to
speak impartially of the great scientific men of all ages, even of our
own.
 I have already said, in the Introduction, that the work aimed at
being, not merely a narration of the facts in the history of Science,
but a basis for the Philosophy of Science. It seemed to me that our
study of the modes of discovering truth ought to be based upon a
survey of the truths which have been discovered. This maxim, so
stated, seems sufficiently self-evident; yet it has, even up to the
present time, been very rarely acted on. Those who discourse
concerning the nature of Truth and the mode of its discovery, still,
commonly, make for themselves examples of truths, which for the
most part are utterly frivolous and unsubstantial (as in most Treatises
on Logic); or else they dig up, over and over, the narrow and special
field of mathematical truth, which certainly cannot, of itself, exemplify
the general mode by which man has attained to the vast body of
certain truth which he now possesses.

Yet it must not be denied that the Ideas which form the basis of
Mathematical Truth are concerned in the formation of Scientific Truth
in general; and discussions concerning these Ideas are by no means
necessarily barren of advantage. But it must be borne in mind that,
besides these Ideas, there are also others, which no less lie at the
root of Scientific Truth; and concerning which there have been, at
various periods, discussions which have had an important bearing
on the progress of Scientific Truth;—such as discussions concerning
the nature and necessary attributes of Matter, of Force, of Atoms, of
Mediums, of Kinds, of Organization. The controversies which have
taken place concerning these have an important place in the history
of Natural Science in 9 its most extended sense. Yet it appeared
convenient to carry on the history of Science, so far as it depends on
Observation, in a line separate from these discussions concerning
Ideas. The account of these discussions and the consequent
controversies, therefore, though it be thoroughly historical, and, as
appears to me, a very curious and interesting history, is reserved for
the other work, the Philosophy of the Inductive Sciences. Such a
history has, in truth, its natural place in the Philosophy of Science;
for the Philosophy of Science at the present day must contain the
result and summing up of all the truth which has been disentangled
from error and confusion during these past controversies.

I have made a few Additions to the present Edition; partly, with a

view of bringing up the history, at least of some of the Sciences, to
the present time,—so far as those larger features of the History of
Science are concerned, with which alone I have here to deal,—and
partly also, especially in the First Volume, in order to rectify and
enlarge some of the earlier portions of the history. Several works
which have recently appeared suggested reconsideration of various
points; and I hoped that my readers might be interested in the
reflections so suggested.

I will add a few sentences from the Preface to the First Edition.

“As will easily be supposed, I have borrowed largely from other

writers, both of the histories of special sciences and of philosophy in
general. 1 I have done this without 10 scruple, since the novelty of my
work was intended to consist, not in its superiority as a collection of
facts, but in the point of view in which the facts were placed. I have,
however, in all cases, given references to my authorities, and there
are very few instances in which I have not verified the references of
previous historians, and studied the original authors. According to
the plan which I have pursued, the history of each science forms a
whole in itself, divided into distinct but connected members, by the
Epochs of its successive advances. If I have satisfied the competent
judges in each science by my selection of such epochs, the scheme
of the work must be of permanent value, however imperfect may be
the execution of any of its portions.
1 Among these, I may mention as works to which I have peculiar
obligations, Tennemann’s Geschichte der Philosophie;
Degerando’s Histoire Comparée des Systèmes de Philosophie;
Montucla’s Histoire des Mathématiques, with Delalande’s
continuation of it; Delambre’s Astronomie Ancienne, Astronomie
du Moyen Age, Astronomie Moderne, and Astronomie du Dix-
huitième Siècle; Bailly’s Histoire d’Astronomie Ancienne, and
Histoire d’Astronomie Moderne; Voiron’s Histoire d’Astronomie
(published as a continuation of Bailly), Fischer’s Geschichte der
Physik, Gmelin’s Geschichte der Chemie, Thomson’s History of
Chemistry, Sprengel’s History of Medicine, his History of Botany,
and in all branches of Natural History and Physiology, Cuvier’s
works; in their historical, as in all other portions, most admirable
and instructive.

“With all these grounds of hope, it is still impossible not to see that
such an undertaking is, in no small degree, arduous, and its event
obscure. But all who venture upon such tasks must gather trust and
encouragement from reflections like those by which their great
forerunner prepared himself for his endeavors;—by recollecting that
they are aiming to advance the best interests and privileges of man;
and that they may expect all the best and wisest of men to join them
in their aspirations and to aid them in their labors.

“‘Concerning ourselves we speak not; but as touching the matter

which we have in hand, this we ask;—that men deem it not to be the
setting up of an Opinion, but the performing of a Work; and that they
receive this as a certainty—that we are not laying the foundations of
any sect or doctrine, but of the profit and dignity of mankind:—
Furthermore, 11 that being well disposed to what shall advantage
themselves, and putting off factions and prejudices, they take
common counsel with us, to the end that being by these our aids and
appliances freed and defended from wanderings and impediments,
they may lend their hands also to the labors which remain to be
performed:—And yet, further, that they be of good hope; neither
feign and imagine to themselves this our Reform as something of
infinite dimension and beyond the grasp of mortal man, when, in
truth, it is, of infinite error, the end and true limit; and is by no means
unmindful of the condition of mortality and humanity, not confiding
that such a thing can be carried to its perfect close in the space of
one single day, but assigning it as a task to a succession of
generations.’—Bacon—Instauratio Magna, Præf. ad fin.

“‘If there be any man who has it at heart, not merely to take his
stand on what has already been discovered, but to profit by that, and
to go on to something beyond;—not to conquer an adversary by
disputing, but to conquer nature by working;—not to opine probably
and prettily, but to know certainly and demonstrably;—let such, as
being true sons of nature (if they will consent to do so), join
themselves to us; so that, leaving the porch of nature which endless
multitudes have so long trod, we may at last open a way to the inner
courts. And that we may mark the two ways, that old one, and our
new one, by familiar names, we have been wont to call the one the
Anticipation of the Mind, the other, the Interpretation of Nature.’—
Inst. Mag. Præf. ad Part. ii.
 CONTENTS
OF THE FIRST VOLUME.

―――⎯◆−◆−◆―――⎯
Page
~Preface to the Third Edition. 7~
~Index of Proper Names. 23~
~Index of Technical Terms. 33~
Introduction. 41

BOOK I.

HISTORY OF THE GREEK SCHOOL PHILOSOPHY, WITH REFERENCE TO

PHYSICAL SCIENCE.

Chapter I.—Prelude to the Greek School Philosophy.

Sect. 1. First Attempts of the Speculative Faculty in Physical Inquiries. 55
Sect. 2. Primitive Mistake in Greek Physical Philosophy. 60

Chapter II.—The Greek School Philosophy.

Sect. 1. The General Foundation of the Greek School Philosophy. 63
Sect. 2. The Aristotelian Physical Philosophy. 67
Sect. 3. Technical Forms of the Greek Schools. 73
1. Technical Forms of the Aristotelian Philosophy. 73
2. Technical Forms of the Platonists. 75
3. Technical Forms of the Pythagoreans. 77
4. Technical Forms of the Atomists and Others. 78

Chapter III.—Failure of the Physical Philosophy of the Greek

Schools.
Sect. 1. Result of the Greek School Philosophy. 80
Sect. 2. Cause of the Failure of the Greek Physical Philosophy. 83

14
 BOOK II.

HISTORY OF THE PHYSICAL SCIENCES IN ANCIENT GREECE.

Introduction. 95

Chapter I.—Earliest Stages of Mechanics and Hydrostatics.

Sect. 1. Mechanics. 96
Sect. 2. Hydrostatics. 98

Chapter II.—Earliest Stages of Optics. 100

Chapter III.—Earliest Stages of Harmonics. 105

BOOK III.

HISTORY OF GREEK ASTRONOMY.

Introduction. 111

Chapter I.—Earliest Stages of Astronomy.

Sect. 1. Formation of the Notion of a Year. 112
Sect. 2. Fixation of the Civil Year. 113
Sect. 3. Correction of the Civil Year (Julian Calendar). 117
Sect. 4. Attempts at the Fixation of the Month. 118
Sect. 5. Invention of Lunisolar Years. 120
Sect. 6. The Constellations. 124
Sect. 7. The Planets. 126
Sect. 8. The Circles of the Sphere. 128
Sect. 9. The Globular Form of the Earth. 132
Sect. 10. The Phases of the Moon. 134
Sect. 11. Eclipses. 135
Sect. 12. Sequel to the Early Stages of Astronomy. 136

Chapter II.—Prelude to the Inductive Epoch of Hipparchus. 138

15
 Chapter III.—Inductive Epoch of Hipparchus.
Sect. 1. Establishment of the Theory of Epicycles and Eccentrics. 145
Sect. 2. Estimate of the Value of the Theory of Eccentrics and
Epicycles. 151
Sect. 3. Discovery of the Precession of the Equinoxes. 155

Chapter IV.—Sequel to the Inductive Epoch of Hipparchus.

Sect. 1. Researches which verified the Theory. 157
Sect. 2. Researches which did not verify the Theory. 159
Sect. 3. Methods of Observation of the Greek Astronomers. 161
Sect. 4. Period from Hipparchus to Ptolemy. 166
Sect. 5. Measures of the Earth. 169
Sect. 6. Ptolemy’s Discovery of Evection. 170
Sect. 7. Conclusion of the History of Greek Astronomy. 175
Sect. 8. Arabian Astronomy. 176

B O O K I V.

HISTORY OF PHYSICAL SCIENCE IN THE MIDDLE AGES.

Introduction. 185

Chapter I.—On the Indistinctness of Ideas of the Middle Ages.

1. Collections of Opinions. 187
2. Indistinctness of Ideas in Mechanics. 188
3. Indistinctness of Ideas shown in Architecture. 191
4. Indistinctness of Ideas in Astronomy. 192
5. Indistinctness of Ideas shown by Skeptics. 192
6. Neglect of Physical Reasoning in Christendom. 195
7. Question of Antipodes. 195
8. Intellectual Condition of the Religious Orders. 197
9. Popular Opinions. 199

Chapter II.—The Commentatorial Spirit of the Middle Ages. 201

1. Natural Bias to Authority. 202
2. Character of Commentators. 204