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 Modern Business Statistics, with © 2012, 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning
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 Dedicated to
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Mark, Linda, Brad, Tim, Scott, and Lisa
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Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
Brief Contents

Preface xxiii

About the Authors xxxi

Chapter 1 Data and Statistics 1

Chapter 2 Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical

Presentations 35

Chapter 3 Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures 97

Chapter 4 Introduction to Probability 163

Chapter 5 Discrete Probability Distributions 209

Chapter 6 Continuous Probability Distributions 251

Chapter 7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 283

Chapter 8 Interval Estimation 324

Chapter 9 Hypothesis Tests 365

Chapter 10 Statistical Inference About Means and Proportions

with Two Populations 414

Chapter 11 Inferences About Population Variances 465

Chapter 12 Tests of Goodness of Fit and Independence 493

Chapter 13 Experimental Design and Analysis of Variance 527

Chapter 14 Simple Linear Regression 582

Chapter 15 Multiple Regression 671

Chapter 16 Regression Analysis: Model Building 726

Chapter 17 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 774

Chapter 18 Nonparametric Methods 848

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
viii Brief Contents

Chapter 19 Statistical Methods for Quality Control 891

Chapter 20 Decision Analysis 925

Chapter 21 Sample Survey On Website

Appendix A References and Bibliography 964

Appendix B Tables 966

Appendix C Summation Notation 977

Appendix D Self-Test Solutions and Answers to Even-Numbered

Exercises 979

Appendix E Microsoft Excel 2010 and Tools for Statistical

Analysis 1028

Index 1039

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
Contents

Preface xxiii
About the Authors xxxi

Chapter 1 Data and Statistics 1

Statistics in Practice: BusinessWeek 2
1.1 Applications in Business and Economics 3
Accounting 3
Finance 4
Marketing 4
Production 4
Economics 4
1.2 Data 5
Elements, Variables, and Observations 6
Scales of Measurement 6
Categorical and Quantitative Data 7
Cross-Sectional and Time Series Data 7
1.3 Data Sources 10
Existing Sources 10
Statistical Studies 11
Data Acquisition Errors 13
1.4 Descriptive Statistics 14
1.5 Statistical Inference 15
1.6 Statistical Analysis Using Microsoft Excel 17
Data Sets and Excel Worksheets 18
Using Excel for Statistical Analysis 19
1.7 Data Mining 21
1.8 Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice 22
Summary 24
Glossary 24
Supplementary Exercises 25
Appendix An Introduction to StatTools 32

Chapter 2 Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical

Presentations 35
Statistics in Practice: Colgate-Palmolive Company 36
2.1 Summarizing Categorical Data 37
Frequency Distribution 37
Using Excel’s COUNTIF Function to Construct a Frequency Distribution 38
Relative Frequency and Percent Frequency Distributions 38

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
x Contents

Using Excel to Construct Relative Frequency and Percent Frequency

Distributions 40
Bar Charts and Pie Charts 41
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Construct a Bar Chart and a Pie Chart 42
2.2 Summarizing Quantitative Data 47
Frequency Distribution 47
Using Excel’s PivotTable Report to Construct a Frequency Distribution 49
Relative Frequency and Percent Frequency Distributions 51
Dot Plot 51
Histogram 52
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Construct a Histogram 54
Cumulative Distributions 55
Ogive 56
2.3 Exploratory Data Analysis: The Stem-and-Leaf Display 61
2.4 Crosstabulations and Scatter Diagrams 66
Crosstabulation 66
Using Excel’s PivotTable Report to Construct a Crosstabulation 69
Simpson’s Paradox 72
Scatter Diagram and Trendline 74
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Construct a Scatter Diagram and a Trendline 75
Summary 82
Glossary 83
Key Formulas 84
Supplementary Exercises 84
Case Problem 1 Pelican Stores 90
Case Problem 2 Motion Picture Industry 91
Appendix 2.1 Using Excel’s PivotChart Report to Summarize
Categorical Data 92
Appendix 2.2 Using Excel’s PivotChart Report to Summarize
Quantitative Data 94
Appendix 2.3 Using StatTools for Tabular and Graphical Presentations 95

Chapter 3 Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures 97

Statistics in Practice: Small Fry Design 98
3.1 Measures of Location 99
Mean 99
Median 100
Mode 101
Using Excel to Compute the Mean, Median, and Mode 102
Percentiles 103
Quartiles 104
Using Excel to Compute Percentiles and Quartiles 105
3.2 Measures of Variability 111
Range 111
Interquartile Range 112
Variance 112
Standard Deviation 114
Using Excel to Compute the Sample Variance and Sample
Standard Deviation 115

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
 Contents xi

Coefficient of Variation 116

Using Excel’s Descriptive Statistics Tool 116
3.3 Measures of Distribution Shape, Relative Location, and Detecting Outliers 120
Distribution Shape 120
z-Scores 121
Chebyshev’s Theorem 122
Empirical Rule 123
Detecting Outliers 124
3.4 Exploratory Data Analysis 128
Five-Number Summary 128
Box Plot 128
Comparative Analysis Using Box Plots 129
3.5 Measures of Association Between Two Variables 133
Covariance 134
Interpretation of the Covariance 135
Correlation Coefficient 138
Interpretation of the Correlation Coefficient 139
Using Excel to Compute the Covariance and Correlation Coefficient 140
3.6 The Weighted Mean and Working with Grouped Data 144
Weighted Mean 144
Grouped Data 145
Summary 149
Glossary 150
Key Formulas 151
Supplementary Exercises 153
Case Problem 1 Pelican Stores 157
Case Problem 2 Motion Picture Industry 158
Case Problem 3 Heavenly Chocolates Website Transactions 159
Appendix Descriptive Statistics Using StatTools 160

Chapter 4 Introduction to Probability 163

Statistics in Practice: Oceanwide Seafood 164
4.1 Experiments, Counting Rules, and Assigning Probabilities 165
Counting Rules, Combinations, and Permutations 166
Assigning Probabilities 170
Probabilities for the KP&L Project 172
4.2 Events and Their Probabilities 175
4.3 Some Basic Relationships of Probability 179
Complement of an Event 179
Addition Law 180
4.4 Conditional Probability 186
Independent Events 189
Multiplication Law 189
4.5 Bayes’ Theorem 194
Tabular Approach 197
Using Excel to Compute Posterior Probabilities 198
Summary 200
Glossary 200
Key Formulas 201

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
xii Contents

Supplementary Exercises 202

Case Problem Hamilton County Judges 206

Chapter 5 Discrete Probability Distributions 209

Statistics in Practice: Citibank 210
5.1 Random Variables 210
Discrete Random Variables 211
Continuous Random Variables 212
5.2 Discrete Probability Distributions 213
5.3 Expected Value and Variance 219
Expected Value 219
Variance 219
Using Excel to Compute the Expected Value, Variance, and Standard
Deviation 220
5.4 Binomial Probability Distribution 225
A Binomial Experiment 225
Martin Clothing Store Problem 226
Using Excel to Compute Binomial Probabilities 231
Expected Value and Variance for the Binomial Distribution 233
5.5 Poisson Probability Distribution 236
An Example Involving Time Intervals 236
An Example Involving Length or Distance Intervals 237
Using Excel to Compute Poisson Probabilities 238
5.6 Hypergeometric Probability Distribution 241
Using Excel to Compute Hypergeometric Probabilities 243
Summary 245
Glossary 246
Key Formulas 247
Supplementary Exercises 248

Chapter 6 Continuous Probability Distributions 251

Statistics in Practice: Procter & Gamble 252
6.1 Uniform Probability Distribution 253
Area as a Measure of Probability 254
6.2 Normal Probability Distribution 257
Normal Curve 257
Standard Normal Probability Distribution 260
Computing Probabilities for Any Normal Probability Distribution 264
Grear Tire Company Problem 265
Using Excel to Compute Normal Probabilities 266
6.3 Exponential Probability Distribution 272
Computing Probabilities for the Exponential Distribution 273
Relationship Between the Poisson and Exponential Distributions 274
Using Excel to Compute Exponential Probabilities 275
Summary 277
Glossary 277
Key Formulas 278

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
 Contents xiii

Supplementary Exercises 278

Case Problem Specialty Toys 281

Chapter 7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 283

Statistics in Practice: Meadwestvaco Corporation 284
7.1 The Electronics Associates Sampling Problem 285
7.2 Selecting a Sample 286
Sampling from a Finite Population 286
Sampling from an Infinite Population 289
7.3 Point Estimation 293
Practical Advice 295
7.4 Introduction to Sampling Distributions 297
7.5 Sampling Distribution of x– 300
Expected Value of x– 300
Standard Deviation of x– 301
Form of the Sampling Distribution of x– 302
Sampling Distribution of x– for the EAI Problem 304
Practical Value of the Sampling Distribution of x– 304
Relationship Between the Sample Size and the Sampling
Distribution of x– 306
7.6 Sampling Distribution of p– 310
Expected Value of p– 310
Standard Deviation of p– 311
Form of the Sampling Distribution of p– 312
Practical Value of the Sampling Distribution of p– 313
7.7 Other Sampling Methods 316
Stratified Random Sampling 316
Cluster Sampling 316
Systematic Sampling 317
Convenience Sampling 317
Judgment Sampling 318
Summary 318
Glossary 319
Key Formulas 320
Supplementary Exercises 320
Appendix Random Sampling with StatTools 323

Chapter 8 Interval Estimation 324

Statistics in Practice: Food Lion 325
8.1 Population Mean: σ Known 326
Margin of Error and the Interval Estimate 326
Using Excel 330
Practical Advice 332
8.2 Population Mean: σ Unknown 334
Margin of Error and the Interval Estimate 335
Using Excel 338
Practical Advice 339

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
xiv Contents

Using a Small Sample 339

Summary of Interval Estimation Procedures 341
8.3 Determining the Sample Size 344
8.4 Population Proportion 347
Using Excel 349
Determining the Sample Size 350
Summary 354
Glossary 355
Key Formulas 356
Supplementary Exercises 356
Case Problem 1 Young Professional Magazine 360
Case Problem 2 Gulf Real Estate Properties 361
Case Problem 3 Metropolitan Research, Inc. 363
Appendix Interval Estimation with StatTools 363

Chapter 9 Hypothesis Tests 365

Statistics in Practice: John Morrell & Company 366
9.1 Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses 367
The Alternative Hypothesis as a Research Hypothesis 367
The Null Hypothesis as an Assumption to Be Challenged 368
Summary of Forms for Null and Alternative Hypotheses 369
9.2 Type I and Type II Errors 371
9.3 Population Mean: σ Known 373
One-Tailed Test 373
Two-Tailed Test 379
Using Excel 382
Summary and Practical Advice 384
Relationship Between Interval Estimation and Hypothesis Testing 385
9.4 Population Mean: σ Unknown 390
One-Tailed Test 391
Two-Tailed Test 392
Using Excel 393
Summary and Practical Advice 396
9.5 Population Proportion 399
Using Excel 401
Summary 403
Summary 406
Glossary 406
Key Formulas 407
Supplementary Exercises 407
Case Problem 1 Quality Associates, Inc. 410
Case Problem 2 Ethical Behavior of Business Students at Bayview University 411
Appendix Hypothesis Testing with StatTools 413

Chapter 10 Statistical Inference About Means and Proportions with Two

Populations 414
Statistics in Practice: U.S. Food and Drug Administration 415

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
 Contents xv

10.1 Inferences About the Difference Between Two Population Means: σ1 and σ2
Known 416
Interval Estimation of μ1  μ2 416
Using Excel to Construct a Confidence Interval 418
Hypothesis Tests About μ1  μ2 420
Using Excel to Conduct a Hypothesis Test 422
Practical Advice 423
10.2 Inferences About the Difference Between Two Population Means: σ1 and σ2
Unknown 427
Interval Estimation of μ1  μ2 427
Using Excel to Construct a Confidence Interval 428
Hypothesis Tests About μ1  μ2 431
Using Excel to Conduct a Hypothesis Test 433
Practical Advice 434
10.3 Inferences About the Difference Between Two Population Means: Matched
Samples 438
Using Excel to Conduct a Hypothesis Test 441
10.4 Inferences About the Difference Between Two Population Proportions 446
Interval Estimation of p1  p2 446
Using Excel to Construct a Confidence Interval 448
Hypothesis Tests About p1  p2 449
Using Excel to Conduct a Hypothesis Test 451
Summary 456
Glossary 456
Key Formulas 456
Supplementary Exercises 458
Case Problem Par, Inc. 461
Appendix Inferences About Two Populations Using StatTools 462

Chapter 11 Inferences About Population Variances 465

Statistics in Practice: U.S. Government Accountability Office 466
11.1 Inferences About a Population Variance 467
Interval Estimation 467
Using Excel to Construct a Confidence Interval 471
Hypothesis Testing 472
Using Excel to Conduct a Hypothesis Test 475
11.2 Inferences About Two Population Variances 479
Using Excel to Conduct a Hypothesis Test 484
Summary 488
Key Formulas 488
Supplementary Exercises 488
Case Problem Air Force Training Program 490
Appendix Inferences About Population Variances with StatTools 491

Chapter 12 Tests of Goodness of Fit and Independence 493

Statistics in Practice: United Way 494
12.1 Goodness of Fit Test: A Multinomial Population 495
Using Excel to Conduct a Goodness of Fit Test 498

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
xvi Contents

12.2 Test of Independence 501

Using Excel to Conduct a Test of Independence 505
12.3 Goodness of Fit Test: Poisson and Normal Distributions 510
Poisson Distribution 510
Using Excel to Conduct a Goodness of Fit Test 514
Normal Distribution 514
Using Excel to Conduct a Goodness of Fit Test 518
Summary 520
Glossary 520
Key Formulas 521
Supplementary Exercises 521
Case Problem A Bipartisan Agenda for Change 525
Appendix Test of Independence Using StatTools 526

Chapter 13 Experimental Design and Analysis of Variance 527

Statistics in Practice: Burke Marketing Services, Inc. 528
13.1 An Introduction to Experimental Design and Analysis of
Variance 529
Data Collection 530
Assumptions for Analysis of Variance 531
Analysis of Variance: A Conceptual Overview 531
13.2 Analysis of Variance and the Completely Randomized Design 534
Between-Treatments Estimate of Population Variance 535
Within-Treatments Estimate of Population Variance 536
Comparing the Variance Estimates: The F Test 537
ANOVA Table 539
Using Excel 540
Testing for the Equality of k Population Means: An Observational
Study 541
13.3 Multiple Comparison Procedures 546
Fisher’s LSD 546
Type I Error Rates 549
13.4 Randomized Block Design 552
Air Traffic Controller Stress Test 553
ANOVA Procedure 554
Computations and Conclusions 555
Using Excel 557
13.5 Factorial Experiment 561
ANOVA Procedure 563
Computations and Conclusions 563
Using Excel 567
Summary 571
Glossary 571
Key Formulas 572
Supplementary Exercises 574
Case Problem 1 Wentworth Medical Center 579
Case Problem 2 Compensation for Sales Professionals 580
Appendix Analysis of a Completely Randomized Design Using StatTools 581

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
 Contents xvii

Chapter 14 Simple Linear Regression 582

Statistics in Practice: Alliance Data Systems 583
14.1 Simple Linear Regression Model 584
Regression Model and Regression Equation 584
Estimated Regression Equation 585
14.2 Least Squares Method 587
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Construct a Scatter Diagram and Compute
the Estimated Regression Equation 591
14.3 Coefficient of Determination 599
Using Excel to Compute the Coefficient of Determination 603
Correlation Coefficient 603
14.4 Model Assumptions 607
14.5 Testing for Significance 609
Estimate of σ2 609
t Test 610
Confidence Interval for β1 612
F Test 613
Some Cautions About the Interpretation of Significance Tests 614
14.6 Using the Estimated Regression Equation for Estimation and Prediction 618
Interval Estimation 619
Confidence Interval for the Mean Value of y 619
Prediction Interval for an Individual Value of y 621
14.7 Excel’s Regression Tool 625
Using Excel’s Regression Tool for the Armand’s Pizza Parlors
Example 626
Interpretation of Estimated Regression Equation Output 627
Interpretation of ANOVA Output 628
Interpretation of Regression Statistics Output 629
Using StatTools to Compute Prediction Intervals 629
14.8 Residual Analysis: Validating Model Assumptions 633
Residual Plot Against x 634
Residual Plot Against ŷ 637
Standardized Residuals 637
Using Excel to Construct a Residual Plot 639
Normal Probability Plot 643
14.9 Outliers and Influential Observations 646
Detecting Outliers 646
Detecting Influential Observations 647
Summary 652
Glossary 653
Key Formulas 654
Supplementary Exercises 656
Case Problem 1 Measuring Stock Market Risk 662
Case Problem 2 U.S. Department of Transportation 663
Case Problem 3 Alumni Giving 664
Case Problem 4 PGA Tour Statistics 664
Appendix 14.1 Calculus-Based Derivation of Least Squares Formulas 666
Appendix 14.2 A Test for Significance Using Correlation 667
Appendix 14.3 Regression Analysis Using StatTools 668

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
xviii Contents

Chapter 15 Multiple Regression 671

Statistics in Practice: International Paper 672
15.1 Multiple Regression Model 673
Regression Model and Regression Equation 673
Estimated Multiple Regression Equation 673
15.2 Least Squares Method 674
An Example: Butler Trucking Company 675
Using Excel’s Regression Tool to Develop the Estimated Multiple Regression
Equation 678
Note on Interpretation of Coefficients 680
15.3 Multiple Coefficient of Determination 685
15.4 Model Assumptions 688
15.5 Testing for Significance 689
F Test 689
t Test 692
Multicollinearity 693
15.6 Using the Estimated Regression Equation for Estimation and Prediction 697
15.7 Categorical Independent Variables 699
An Example: Johnson Filtration, Inc. 699
Interpreting the Parameters 701
More Complex Categorical Variables 704
15.8 Residual Analysis 708
Residual Plot Against ŷ 708
Standardized Residual Plot Against ŷ 709
Summary 712
Glossary 713
Key Formulas 714
Supplementary Exercises 715
Case Problem 1 Consumer Research, Inc. 720
Case Problem 2 Alumni Giving 721
Case Problem 3 PGA Tour Statistics 722
Case Problem 4 Predicting Winning Percentage for the NFL 724
Appendix Multiple Regression Analysis Using StatTools 725

Chapter 16 Regression Analysis: Model Building 726

Statistics in Practice: Monsanto Company 727
16.1 General Linear Model 728
Modeling Curvilinear Relationships 728
Interaction 730
Transformations Involving the Dependent Variable 734
Nonlinear Models That Are Intrinsically Linear 737
16.2 Determining When to Add or Delete Variables 742
General Case 743
16.3 Analysis of a Larger Problem 748
16.4 Variable Selection Procedures 751
Stepwise Regression 752
Forward Selection 753
Backward Elimination 754
Best-Subsets Regression 754

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
 Contents xix

16.5 Multiple Regression Approach to Experimental Design 756

16.6 Autocorrelation and the Durbin-Watson Test 761
Summary 765
Glossary 766
Key Formulas 766
Supplementary Exercises 767
Case Problem 1 Analysis of PGA Tour Statistics 770
Case Problem 2 Fuel Economy for Cars 772
Appendix Variable Selection Procedures Using StatTools 772

Chapter 17 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 774

Statistics in Practice: Nevada Occupational Health Clinic 775
17.1 Time Series Patterns 776
Horizontal Pattern 776
Trend Pattern 778
Seasonal Pattern 778
Trend and Seasonal Pattern 779
Cyclical Pattern 780
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Construct a Time Series Plot 782
Selecting a Forecasting Method 783
17.2 Forecast Accuracy 783
17.3 Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing 788
Moving Averages 788
Using Excel’s Moving Average Tool 789
Weighted Moving Averages 792
Exponential Smoothing 792
Using Excel’s Exponential Smoothing Tool 794
17.4 Trend Projection 800
Linear Trend Regression 800
Using Excel’s Regression Tool to Compute a Linear Trend Equation 804
Holt’s Linear Exponential Smoothing 805
Nonlinear Trend Regression 807
Using Excel’s Regression Tool to Compute a Quadratic Trend Equation 808
Using Excel’s Chart Tools for Trend Projection 810
17.5 Seasonality and Trend 815
Seasonality Without Trend 815
Seasonality and Trend 818
Models Based on Monthly Data 821
17.6 Time Series Decomposition 825
Calculating the Seasonal Indexes 826
Deseasonalizing the Time Series 830
Using the Deseasonalized Time Series to Identify Trend 831
Seasonal Adjustments 832
Models Based on Monthly Data 832
Cyclical Component 833
Summary 836
Glossary 837
Key Formulas 838
Supplementary Exercises 839

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
xx Contents

Case Problem 1 Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales 843

Case Problem 2 Forecasting Lost Sales 844
Appendix Forecasting Using StatTools 845

Chapter 18 Nonparametric Methods 848

Statistics in Practice: West Shell Realtors 849
18.1 Sign Test 850
Hypothesis Test About a Population Median 850
Hypothesis Test with Matched Samples 854
Using Excel 856
18.2 Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test 858
18.3 Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon Test 864
18.4 Kruskal-Wallis Test 875
18.5 Rank Correlation 879
Using Excel 881
Summary 884
Glossary 885
Key Formulas 886
Supplementary Exercises 886
Appendix Nonparametric Methods with StatTools 889

Chapter 19 Statistical Methods for Quality Control 891

Statistics in Practice: Dow Chemical Company 892
19.1 Philosophies and Frameworks 893
Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award 894
ISO 9000 894
Six Sigma 894
19.2 Statistical Process Control 897
Control Charts 897
x– Chart: Process Mean and Standard Deviation Known 898
x– Chart: Process Mean and Standard Deviation Unknown 901
R Chart 903
p Chart 905
np Chart 907
Interpretation of Control Charts 908
19.3 Acceptance Sampling 911
KALI, Inc.: An Example of Acceptance Sampling 912
Computing the Probability of Accepting a Lot 913
Selecting an Acceptance Sampling Plan 916
Multiple Sampling Plans 918
Summary 919
Glossary 919
Key Formulas 920
Supplementary Exercises 921
Appendix Control Charts Using StatTools 923

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
 Contents xxi

Chapter 20 Decision Analysis 925

Statistics in Practice: Ohio Edison Company 926
20.1 Problem Formulation 927
Payoff Tables 928
Decision Trees 928
20.2 Decision Making with Probabilities 929
Expected Value Approach 929
Expected Value of Perfect Information 931
20.3 Decision Analysis with Sample Information 937
Decision Tree 938
Decision Strategy 939
Expected Value of Sample Information 942
20.4 Computing Branch Probabilities Using Bayes’ Theorem 948
Summary 952
Glossary 953
Key Formulas 954
Supplementary Exercises 954
Case Problem Lawsuit Defense Strategy 957
Appendix An Introduction to PrecisionTree 958

Chapter 21 Sample Survey On Website

Statistics in Practice: Duke Energy 21-2
21.1 Terminology Used in Sample Surveys 21-2
21.2 Types of Surveys and Sampling Methods 21-3
21.3 Survey Errors 21-5
Nonsampling Error 21-5
Sampling Error 21-6
21.4 Simple Random Sampling 21-6
Population Mean 21-6
Population Total 21-7
Population Proportion 21-9
Using Excel for Simple Random Sampling 21-9
Determining the Sample Size 21-12
21.5 Stratified Simple Random Sampling 21-15
Population Mean 21-15
Using Excel: Population Mean 21-16
Population Total 21-18
Using Excel: Population Total 21-19
Population Proportion 21-19
Using Excel: Population Proportion 21-21
Determining the Sample Size 21-21
21.6 Cluster Sampling 21-26
Population Mean 21-28
Population Total 21-29
Population Proportion 21-30

Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.
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summoned Master Lucas to the sick-chamber.

"Anne hath opened her eyes and spoken," said she,

weeping. "She is quite herself, but I fear—"

Master Lucas hastily obeyed the summons, and the moment

he entered the room he saw the state of the case.

Anne's eyes were open and rational, but that awful shadow
rested upon her face which once seen cannot be mistaken.

"My dearest daughter," was all her father could say, as he

bent over her and took her hand.

"Jack?" whispered Anne, with a look of eager inquiry.

"I trust truly that he hath escaped and is in safety,"

whispered her father in return. "I have had a letter from
him written on shipboard, and there is every reason to hope
that both he and Arthur will make their way safely to
Germany. He sent his love specially to you."

Anne smiled sweetly, and lay silent for a few minutes. Then
she said faintly but clearly—

"Dear father, you have forgiven me?"

"As fully and truly as I hope myself to be forgiven, dear

child."
"I have not been a good or dutiful daughter," said Anne
slowly. "I have lived in a strange, foolish dream all my life,
but I see all clearly now—how you have forgiven and borne
with and pitied me all the time I was fancying myself so
superior and learned and wise—so far above all the rest of
you. But, father, I did try to serve God—"

"I know you did, daughter. I knew it all the time," said her
father.

"You have been the best of fathers to me, and you will have
your reward," continued Anne dreamily. "Father, what
became of the little book I sent Jack?"

"I do not know, my love. I suppose he took it with him."

"That book finished the work which Agnes began," said

Anne. "I fought against it—I fought against my own
conscience, with all my might, but God would not let me be
lost. Father, if you are ever able, I pray you, for my sake
and Jack's, to read and study the Gospel. Never mind what
men may say or how they may treat you. The truth is worth
it all, and the truth shall make you free."

These were the last words she said. Cicely would have sent
for a priest, but even while she was speaking of it, all was
over. The weary overworked body and the wounded spirit
found repose.

Toward the close of a pleasant day in the latter part of May,

1538, a gentleman rode through the street of Bridgewater,
looking around him with great interest, not so much like a
stranger as like one who, having been long away, takes
cognizance of things which have happened in his absence.
He was a scholarly-looking man of perhaps six or eight and
twenty, well dressed and riding a good horse. He turned
into Bridge Street and alighted at the door of "John Lucas,
white and brown baker and dealer in sweetmeats and
spices," as was set forth on a huge signboard decorated
with a most ramping lion.

"I see no changes here, save that the old lion has been
regilt and painted since my day," said the horseman,
deliberately surveying the front of the house. "And as I live,
I should say there was the very same old cat sitting on the
end of the counter. But that can hardly be. I do not see my
father, but he may be out."

A stout, respectable-looking journeyman came forward to

attend to the stranger, who looked at him with attention,
and then asked courteously—

"Are Master Lucas or any of his family within?"

"Not at present," was the reply. "My master and mistress

have gone to hear the Bible reading, and Dame Cicely has
gone out also. Will it please you to sit down and await their
return?"

"To the church, to hear the Bible reading!" repeated the

stranger with a smile. "That would have been a strange
sound years ago, when I left this place. Do they then have
regular Bible readings in the church?"

"Ay, sir, every afternoon."

"And do many people attend to hear?'

"Oh, yes, sir. My master hardly ever misses, and, beside

that, he reads in the Bible to his family every morning. You
may see the great book lying yonder beside his chair."
"Is your master well in health?"

"Ay, sir, extraordinary well and stout for a man of his age,
specially since he married my mistress."

"So he is married!" exclaimed the visitor. "And who is the

new dame?"

"I do not know her right name," returned the shopman.

"She used to live here years ago, and then we called her
Madam Barbara. She was a nun once in the same convent
with poor Mistress Anne, or so I have heard. Anyhow, she is
a good mistress and makes my master a very happy home.
But will you not sit down, sir? They will soon be home."

"I thank you, but I will walk toward the church and meet
them," said Jack Lucas; for as our readers have guessed, it
was none but he. "I have been long abroad, but I was bred
here and know all the streets of the town well."

A few minutes after, Jack entered the church of St. Mary,

where a tolerable congregation was assembled. The great
Bible, chained safely to its stand, was placed in the open
space in front of the chancel, and a young man whom Jack
recognized as a former schoolmate was reading from the
Gospel of St. John. Around him were grouped people of all
classes: gentlemen and ladies, citizens with their wives and
children, and sailors from the river, all eagerly listening to
the Word of God, while at the edge of the crowd stood two
or three priests with scowling brows, evidently highly
displeased with the whole affair.

"Oh, Father William, could you but have lived to see this
day!" thought Jack. "But you gained your martyr's crown in
good time."
Jack had no difficulty in finding out his father, who, with his
family, was seated very near the reader. Master Lucas had
grown old within ten years, but still looked hale and hearty.

His wife, bright and cheerful as ever, sat by his side, and
next her was a very old man in the dress of a priest, who
sat leaning his two hands on the head of his staff, and
listening evidently with the closest attention. Jack looked at
the group, and the tears rose to his eyes as he thought of
one who should have been with them. He waited till the
reader ceased and the congregation rose to depart, and
then drew near his father, who was helping the old man to
his feet.

"Let me give you a helping hand," said he, as if speaking to

a stranger. "The venerable father seems infirm."

"He can walk very well when he gets to his feet," said
Master Lucas. "He is very old, but nothing will keep him
from the Bible readings in the church."

"Yes, yes, I am an old man—I am almost ninety years old,"

said the father, in a feeble but cheery voice. "I am an old
man, but I am very well—and everybody is good to me."

"That is the burden of his daily song," said Master Lucas.

"Truly, it is a privilege to be allowed to tend him in his age,
and I love him like a father."

"It is much to say," returned Jack in an unsteady voice. "I

have ever found a father's love the warmest and truest in
the world!"

Something in the tone caused Master Lucas to look round

suddenly. At the same moment his wife exclaimed—
"Surely, surely—this is our Jack come home. Master Lucas,
do you not know your own son?"

We pass over the greetings and questionings, the

exclamations and rejoicings on the part of the whole
household. Jack soon found himself seated at the family
supper table, bountifully spread as in old days, with as
many of his favorite dishes as Cicely could provide at such
short notice.

"You did not expect to find a step-dame, did you, Jack?"

asked his father.

"Why, no, not exactly," replied Jack. "And yet I was no ways
surprised, but greatly pleased to find that you had taken
our good Madam Barbara to wife. You know I always liked
the notion."

"You see the house was very lonely, latterly," said Master
Lucas; "and we were both growing older. Then the convents
were all broken up, and the nuns had leave to do what they
would, so I even broke the matter to the lady, and she was
content to take up her living with us. Then our good Father
John grew infirm and lonely in his house at Holford, and so
we brought him home here, where he is as happy as the
day is long. His mind hath grown somewhat dazed the last
year, some time ago, and, above all things, he loves the
Bible readings. Father John, do you not know our Jack—Jack
Lucas, whom you did so much for?"

"Ay, ay," returned the old man readily. "I remember Jack
Lucas. A towardly boy he was, and full of good gifts, though
he was careless in throwing stones, I remember. They said
he was a heretic and that the devil carried him off, but I
never believed that."
"If he did, he brought him back," said the baker, laughing,
"for here he sits, as you see."

"But Jack was only a lad, and this is a grown man,"

returned the old priest in a puzzled tone.

"He will get hold of the matter presently," said Dame Lucas,
as we must now call her. "I would not trouble him. Never
mind, dear father, you will understand all by and by."

"And where have you been all this time, that we have not
heard from you?" asked Master Lucas. "We have written
again and again, but have heard nothing, and had almost
given you up for lost."

"I have been in many lands," replied Jack. "I have been
hearing medical lectures in Padua and Milan, and travelling
all over Germany—even so far as Hungary and Bohemia.
But I have my diploma now, and can settle where like; so I
have even come to see whether this town of Bridgewater
can afford a living to a poor surgeon."

"You are just in the nick of time, for old Master Burden is
dead and there is no one to take his place," said his father.
"But do you really mean to settle down here? I thought you
would be for going to London or Bristol."

"I wished to be near you, father," said Jack; "and, besides,

my chances are better here than in London, where doctors
are far more plenty than blackberries."

"Did you see Master Fleming as you came through?" asked

Dame Lucas.

"Oh yes, mother—if you care to be called mother by such a

well-grown son."
Dame Lucas smiled and nodded, while his father looked
greatly pleased.

"I abode a week with the good gentleman, and he hath sent
you all various tokens of good will, which are in my mails."

"I warrant he rejoices in the new times," remarked Master

Lucas.

"He rejoices, though with trembling, as do all who live near

the court," said Jack gravely. "He does think the times are
not at all settled, and that the King may yet lay on us a
yoke as heavy as that of the Pope. But we will not talk of
these things here or anticipate evil. How are the family at
Holford?"

"Well and hearty, all that are left. The old knight is gone,
but my lady survives and rejoices over the birth of her
grandchild."

"What has been done with Uncle Thomas's cottage?"

"Nothing. Old Margery stayed there as long as she lived,

and since her death, it has been shut up. Sir Arthur hath
ever considered it your property, and he also holds quite a
sum of money which Uncle Thomas left you. Sir Arthur is
not strong, and I fear will not live many years."

"I will ride out and see him soon," said Jack. "Are the Brents
well?"

"Well and flourishing. Davy has a fine vessel and is growing

a rich man, and here is Peter to speak for himself," as the
tall journeyman entered the room; "and a fine fellow he is,
too, as ever kneaded up a batch of dough. He hath been
more like a son than a servant to me, and I have used him
accordingly. I suppose you heard all about poor Sir William
from Master Fleming?"

"Yes, and received the remembrance he left me," replied

Jack. "I could but wish as I entered the church this
afternoon that he were there to see and hear."

"He is in a better place, if ever man was," said Master

Lucas. "His memory is green in this place, I can tell you.
When the news came of his death and the manner of it, the
people were ready to break their hearts. But it grows late,
and the good father is already asleep. I dare say Cicely has
your old room ready for you."

A few days after his return, Jack rode over to Holford to

visit his friend Sir Arthur, and the place where he had first
learned to know and value the Scripture.

"You will find everything as it was in the old man's time,"

said the steward, as he gave Jack the key of the cottage,
"save that the storm last night has somewhat shattered the
tree at the house end."

Jack found the place unchanged, as the steward said. A

high wind the night before had blown down part of the great
old oak, which, no doubt, had been a tree in the time of the
Saxons, exposing a hollow in the trunk.

Jack drew near and examined it. Suddenly uttering an

exclamation, he put in his hand and drew forth a good sized
square bundle wrapped in leather and carefully secured with
thongs of the same. Jack carried his prize into the cottage,
and undoing the wrapper with some difficulty brought to
view a large volume written on parchment, well bound and
clasped with iron.
Reverently, he opened the book. It was the Bible of Wickliffe
—the very Bible which had been hidden away a hundred
years before, and which had given the crown of martyrdom
to both Thomas Sprat and his father.

The Hidden Treasure of the old cottage had become the

treasure of all England.

There is little more to add. Father John lived to be a century

old, and died, carefully tended by his adopted children, and
murmuring with his latest breath that everybody was good
to him.

Master Lucas died soon after, leaving his business to Peter

Brent, who had long managed it for him.

Madam Barbara lived to teach reading and embroidery to

Jack's little girls, cherished as a mother by himself and his
wife.

Jack himself survived many perils to see the Protestant

religion firmly established in the reign of Elizabeth.

UNIFORM WITH THIS VOLUME

THE GREAT WHITE QUEEN by Wm. Le Queux.

KING ALFRED THE GREAT Gordon Stables.
THE KNIGHTS OF THE WHITE ROSE George
Griffith.
BEHIND THE VEIL. A Story of the Conquest E. S. Holt.
WON AT LAST; or, Mrs. Briscoe's Nephews Agnes Giberne.
WINNING AN EMPIRE. The Story of Clive G. Stebbing.
UNDAUNTED. A Tale of the Solomon Islands W. C. Metcalfe.
OUT IN GOD'S WORLD; or, Electa's Story J. M. Conklin.
THE STORY OF MARTIN LUTHER E. Warren.
ROBIN TREMAYNE. A Reformation Story E. S. Holt.
HER HUSBAND'S HOME. A Tale E. Everett-
Green.
A REAL HERO; or, The Conquest of Mexico G. Stebbing.
ALL'S WELL; or, Alice's Victory E. S. Holt.
WAITING FOR THE BEST; or, Bek's Story J. M. Conklin.
THE KING'S DAUGHTERS. A Martyr Story E. S. Holt.
A KNIGHT OF TO-DAY L. T. Meade.
SISTER ROSE; or, The Eve of St. Bartholomew E. S. Holt.
JACK. The Story of an English Boy Y. Osborn.
THE CHILDREN'S KINGDOM L.T. Meade.
LADY SYBIL'S CHOICE. A Tale of the Crusades E. S. Holt.
THE KING'S LIGHT-BEARER M. S. Comrie.
CLARE AVERY. A Story of the Spanish Armada Emily S. Holt.
OUR HOME IN THE FAR WEST M. B. Sleight.
LADY ROSAMOND; or, Dawnings of Light L. E. Guernsey.
GOLDEN LINES; or, Elline's Experiences Lady Hope.
OLDHAM; or, Beside all Waters L. E. Guernsey.
TWO SAILOR LADS. Adventures on Sea and Land Gordon Stables.
BEATING THE RECORD. A Story of Geo. Stephenson G. Stebbing.
DOROTHY'S STORY. A Tale of Great St. Benedicts L. T. Meade.
ENGLAND, HOME, AND BEAUTY Gordon Stables.
THE CHILDREN OF DEAN'S COURT Emma Marshall.
FACING FEARFUL ODDS. The Siege of Gibraltar Gordon Stables.
LIFE ON THE OCEAN WAVE Gordon Stables.
LADY BETTY'S GOVERNESS L. E. Guernsey.
A STRANGE HOUSE Catherine Shaw.
LIFE-TANGLES Agnes Giberne.
WELL WON. A School Story J. T. Thurston.

More than Forty Volumes in Series.

LONDON: JOHN F. SHAW & CO., 48, PATERNOSTER ROW,

E.C.

No. 1961
 *** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE HIDDEN
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