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Ӌ@

INTRODUCTION

CRIME continuously threatens urban safety and under2mines citizens’ life

quality. According to [1], there have 29 been 435 mass shooting events happened
in the United States 30 during the year 2019, resulting in 517 dead, 1648
wounded, severe property loss, and inestimable grief. Thus, sensing 3crime risk is
important for individuals and society, to prevent and reduce potential crime
events. Fortunately, the availability of various urban data in some cities (e.g.,
Chicago) fosters unprecedented opportunities for researchers to explore crime-
related problems, such as crime hotspot detection [2], [3], crime classification
[4], [5], [6], crime rate inference [7], [8], and crime count prediction [4], [5], [9],
[10], [11]. 38 An amount of urban data has been investigated to be helpful 39 for
performance improvement of crime-related studies. For example, the occurrence
of crime events may be affected by human mobility, that more crowd of people
may bring an increasing possibility of larceny.

Nevertheless, due to the uneven development level of 44 cities, a number

of cities do not disclose data to the public for some possible reasons, i.e., the high
cost of data collection and maintenance, the absence of clear-cut regulations, and
increasing privacy concerns. Thus, residents need sufficient experience to sense
whether there will be risk. But not all residents have such local experience, and
this brings more challenges for newcomers, e.g., tourists. Recently, transfer
learning [12], [13] provides a new paradigm that enables us to use learned
knowledge from a data-rich city (source city) to solve similar tasks in a data-
scarce city (target city), e.g., chain store site recommendation and crowd flow
prediction [14], [15]. Therefore, we attempt to resort to unsupervised transfer
learning to explore crime risk prediction in cities without labeled crime data.
 However, even though adequate labeled data can be collected from a
source city, a prediction model trained using these data may fail to predict crime
risk in the target city without labeled crime data. Different data collection
capabilities may result in inconsistencies in the available relevant context data in
different cities. Suppose that the source city is New York City (NYC), and the
target city is Los Angeles (LA). Due to its widespread deployment of detection
equipment and long-standing open data project, NYC has collected multisource
urban data over the past many years and continues to disclose information to the
public, e.g., point of interest (POI) distribution and taxi trip records. Some cities
also collect many urban data. But due to some concerns on 71 privacy issues or
high data collection costs, they do not make some useful and relevant data
available to the public, such as taxi mobility data in cities like LA. Thus, the
contexts’ inconsistency issue hinders crime risk prediction performance in cities
with unlabeled data.

An intuitive approach to solve contexts’ inconsistency is to only use

common context data to train a model from the source city and then fine-tune this
model to solve tasks in the target city, leaving inconsistent city-specific context
data alone. But this may lose some useful information for crime risk prediction,
and even worse when context data are sparse. Due to the prevalence of deep
learning technologies, more data may bring better performance since they can
extract more useful information in the networks. Therefore, we try to design an
effective model that can construct possible source-city specific context data for
the target city to address the contexts’ inconsistency problem, and then predict
crime in the target city leveraging learned knowledge from the source city.

In this article, we propose an unsupervised domain adaptation model

(UDAC) for crime risk prediction across cities while addressing the contexts’
inconsistency issue, called UDAC. The objective of UDAC is to solve crime risk
prediction in a target city without labeled crime data, by transferring knowledge
learned from a source city with abundant labeled data to the target city. Inspired
by [15], we design a method to construct possible city-specific context data for
the target 98 city grids, based on context data in similar source city grids, to
address the issue of inconsistent context. We then present a network to learn
effective features for crime risk prediction in the source city and learn domain-
invariant features simultaneously for the success of unsupervised domain
adaptation. The optimization process would consider three elements
simultaneously, i.e., crime risk prediction error, domain classification error, and
distribution discrepancy distance. Extensive experiments are conducted to verify
the effectiveness of UDAC using three real-world datasets from NYC, Chicago,
and LA.

The main contributions of our work are as follows.

1) Our work is a promising step toward unsupervised domain adaptation in crime
prediction across cities, while simultaneously addressing the contexts’
inconsistency issue between cities.
2) We propose an effective model for crime risk prediction in cities without
labeled data, which can facilitate deep unsupervised domain adaptation method
leveraging knowledge learned from a source city with abundant labeled data. To
address the inconsistent contexts between two cities, we first construct city-
specific contexts for the target city, and then present a dense convolution network
to learn effective features for accurate crime prediction and domain-invariant
features for unsupervised domain adaptation. The optimized network can be
feasible for crime prediction in the target city.
3) We conduct extensive experiments to illustrate the effectiveness of our
proposed UDAC model using real-world datasets from three cities. The
experimental results show that our strategy outperforms the state-of-the-art
comparison methods.
 The rest of this article is organized as follows. We begin by
reviewing previous studies in Section II. Section III presents the problem
formulation and an overview of our proposed framework. In Section IV, we
describe the three phases of this framework in detail. Extensive evaluation results
are demonstrated in Section V. Finally, we conclude this article and chart future
plans in Section VI.