Planning For Seismic Vulnerability

A Case of Kirtipur Municipality, Nepal

Kumar Dhamala1

1.0 ABSTRACT
This thesis tries to know seismic vulnerability of people of Kirtipur Municipality by proposing a
three-step vulnerability assessment technique, and also attempts to recommend a general
framework of mitigation measures including measures specific to Kirtipur Municipality. The
thesis therefore hopes to contribute to current understanding on seismic risk and vulnerabilities
vis-à-vis also improve upon the current policies and practices pursued in seismic risk
management and planning. The research strategy sets out by examining both empirical and
normative questions. The earthquake induced losses of both human and properties is estimated
using computer model called RADIUS and an attempt is made to see association of social
variables and these losses by using a statistical package such as SPSS. For the analysis purpose,
the earthquake scenario is taken from the past study carried out by JICA. The main finding
reveals that vulnerability of people against seismic risk is resultant of complex interplay among
several causal factors namely locational, physical, socio-economic, and institutional factors.
Damage of physical assets—whether that be housing or municipal infrastructures tend to be
higher in the case where soil type is soft alluvial, building constructions are taller or of low
quality, and households have lower education level and vice-versa. The thesis finally
recommends a set of mitigation measures comprising of zoning, enforcement of building code
and regulations, diversifying economic base and capacity building of the Kirtipur Municipality.

2.0 INTRODUCTION
Urbanization is occurring very fast in developing countries. As a result, city authorities in these
countries are unable to provide basic infrastructure services in adequate manner. The living
environment especially of the city core is worsening. In most of the cities, there is influx of
populations from the surrounding areas, mostly in search of employment and better living
conditions. Sometimes the natural and manmade disasters force them to move to the cities to live

1
Msc Urban Planning, Tribhuvan University (T.U), Institute of engineering (I.O.E.)

1
in most inhuman conditions. If these areas lie in seismic zones, the combination of hazards and
its induced effects on densely concentrated human, physical and economic activities could lead
to a natural disaster. When a vulnerability factor is added, the situation tends to become more
complex. The high rate of unplanned development and intense pressure on resources means that
the provision of water, shelter, health, education, food, transportation and others is often
inadequate. When disaster strikes, the larger and more unplanned city, the more difficult it is to
organize, rescue and respond to disaster by the city dwellers and governments. This continuing
trend of urbanization and risk of disaster will continue to increase unless the city is planned and
its actions are guided by the duly prepared disaster management plan.

2.1 Disasters in Nepal

Nepal is a disaster prone country
House Destroyed By Disasters in Nepal
mainly due to its young geology, (Source, MoHA)
120000
sloppy terrain, poverty and low 108801
Building Destroyed

100000
level of education and awareness. 80000
60000
The major natural disaster threats 30014
40000 36220
10597 13997 15082 6819
in Nepal are landslides, floods, 20000
0
fire, hailstorms, glacial lake -20000
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01

03

05
19

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outburst, disease epidemics and
earthquakes. The quality of life of Graph: House Destroyed From Different Disasters In Nepal (Source,
Moha, 2006)
an individual is determined largely
Life Lost by Disaster in Nepal from 1983-2005
by socio-economic and physical
1716
environment. Enhancing quality of 1387
1524
1190 1466
Life lost

life also means minimizing 941 881

913 765 415 310
frequency and intensity of 579

disturbance to average human

83

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87

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91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

existence. Minimizing the

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year
disturbance is directly associated
with reducing exposure to the risk— Graph: Life Lost From Different Disasters In Nepal. (Source,
Moha, 2006)
that is reducing the vulnerability.
Therefore, in order to make a life easier, comfortable and safe, it is imperative to reduce
vulnerability of people against hazard. Vulnerability is induced from different sources—some

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sources are exogenous and may not be necessarily within the human control. This necessitates
building human capability which not only reduces vulnerability, but also enables to cope with the
risk.
Types Location Reasons
Major Minor
Earthquake Hill Terai Indo-Tibetan plate collision
Flood Terai Hill Heavy rain fall, siltation, dike failure
Landslide Hill - Young geology, steep topography, deforestation, encroachment
of marginal land
Fire Terai Hill Lack of awareness, hazardous and inflammable construction
materials, close dwellings, thatched roofs
Epidemics Hill Terai Poor sanitation, food shortage, lack of health services

Table: Types Of Major Disaster In Nepal (Source; Moha, 2001)

2.2 The Earthquake phenomenon

Earthquakes are caused by sudden vertical or horizontal slippages of crustal rock along a fault or
an area of strain, thereby causing rebound to new alignment. They are release of strain energy
related to sudden fault movements. An Earthquake can be caused by volcanic eruption, plate
tectonics, or man-made explosions which last for a short time and within a very limited region.
The Earthquake can be grouped as;
I. Natural
o Endogenous ; due to Earth’s internal energy ( Volcanic or tectonics)
o Exogenous ; due to attraction of planets and collapse of core( Mostly tectonics)
II. Artificial; due to human activities viz. quarry explosions, nuclear energy blast etc.
Most earthquakes last for less than a minute. The larger earthquakes are followed by a series of
after shocks that also may be dangerous. An earthquake shock causes vibrations or seismic
waves, on and below the Earth's surface causing; ground rupture, liquefaction, ground shacking,
tsunamis, aftershocks, landslides and etc. Earthquake does not necessarily occur all over the
world, but concentrate on the areas where the plates subduct, such as in a belt that girdles the
Pacific Ocean. The probability of earthquake occurring in a particular area can be determined by
monitoring the seismic activity based on detailed geological knowledge and historical evidence;
although it's exact timing cannot be predicted.

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A Fault is a fracture in the earth’s crust along which two blocks of the crust have slopped with
respect to each other. There are several faults in the Kathmandu Valley. If one of them moves,
part of the valley will severely damaged, even if the damaged area is not so large. An Earthquake
does not occur at a single point, they occur along fault ruptures that have three dimensional
planes. An Earthquake originates at a considerable depth below the surface of the earth at a point
on the fault plane where the stress that produces the maximum slippages. The force induced in
earthquake acting in a building is simply calculated by Newton’s II law of motion i.e. F=Ma. In
which F is a force that produces acceleration ‘a’ when acting on a body of mass ‘M’. For
calculations M is set equal to W/g Then F=W/g X a. Here, W stands for weight of the body
(Buildings) and ‘g’ acceleration of gravity. Then the term a/g is called seismic coefficient (C).
Hence, F= WC.

2.3 Earthquakes in Nepal

Nepal lies on an active seismic zone ranging from Java – Myanmar – Himalayas- Iran and
Turkey, where many large earthquakes have occurred in the past. The three tectonic lines Main
Central Thrust (MCT), Main Boundary thrust (MBT) and Main frontal thrust (MFT) run across
Nepal, and many of the earthquakes occurred in an area between MCT and MBT (JICA, 2002).
The seismic activity is recorded to be the highest throughout the length of the MBT. Nepal has
experienced a large number of devastating earthquakes in the past. And the seismicity is more
active in the western part of the Nepal. But the central part of the Nepal has suffered relatively
few earthquakes. Bilham et al (1995) has pointed out that the Himalayan central zone may be a
‘seismic gap’ between longitudes 87.30 E and 87.70 E.(Monsalve G. et al 2006) that is
accumulating stress, and that a huge earthquake could occur someday when the stress is relieved
(JICA, 2002). This central zone covers the western part of the Nepal. Seismicity is considered to
be high in this region based on the frequency and strength of past earthquakes.

Figure: Tectonic Activities (Subduction Of Indian Plate Under The Eurasian Plate) (Source: Khanal,
2005)

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According to the plate tectonics theory, Nepal is located in boundary between the Indian and the
Tibetan plate, along which a relative shear strain of about 20 mm/yr has been estimated. (Bothara
et al 2002). The Indian Subcontinent plate is moving northwards at a rate of about 40 mm/yr,
colliding with the Eurasian continent causing an uplift that produces the highest mountain peaks
in the world including the Himalayan, the Karakoram, the Pamir and the Hindukush
ranges.”(Thapaliya, 2006). As the Indian plates moves northwards, it is being pushed beneath the
Eurasians plate. Much of the compressional motion between these two colliding plates has been
continues. As a result, Nepal is very active seismically. Of the natural disasters occurring in the
country, earthquakes can be considered to be the most significant in terms of loss of life and
damage to property as well as the frequency of their occurrences. The recorded history shows
that earthquakes in 1255, 1408, 1810, 1833, 1934, 1980 and 1988 were the major ones
responsible for large number of loss of life and property in different part of the country. In the
1934 earthquake, 19000 buildings were heavily damaged, 3800 people were killed and 1000
people were seriously injured only in the Kathmandu valley. Among the various earthquakes
occurred the three earthquakes of 1833, 1934 and 1988 caused serious damages in and around
Kathmandu valley.

Year Magnitude Location Human Property

Death Injuries Collapsed Damage
1993 Jajarkot 40 % of the buildings
affected.
1988 6.6 Udayapur 721 6453 22328 49045
1980 6.5 Bajhang 46 236 12817 13298
1934 8.4 Bihar-Nepal 8519 80893 126355
1810 Moderate Moderate Heavy
1767
1681
1408 Heavy Heavy Heavy
1260
1255 1/3rd Population including King Many buildings and
Abhaya Malla was killed. temples were collapsed
Table: Major Earthquake in Nepal, (Source, Guragain, 2004)

3.0 PROBLEM STATEMENT

The Kirtipur Municipality of Nepal is located in seismically active region. In 2001 the town had
a population of about 40,835. Kirtipur is the emerging municipality of Nepal. Due to this recent
up-gradation the city is witnessing rapid urbanization. Although new building regulations have

5
been introduced, the older parts of the city have high population density. The buildings and
lifelines in the city have low earthquake resistance (GoN- JICA, 2002). The threat of a potential
natural disaster such as an earthquake is large over the city. As the city is not free from
earthquake hazard, an assessment of the elements at risk (buildings and population) is required in
order to determine population vulnerability and loss estimation. This entails the need for study of
detailed population activity patterns as well as collection of detailed individual building
characteristic information. Efforts to reduce vulnerability of elements at risk are needed on a
priority basis. One of such efforts includes a joint study carried out by the Government of Nepal
and JICA. However this study is not adequate for the Kirtipur Municipality in order to know
building and population losses that will ultimately feed into a disaster management plan. By way
of such loss estimation, a framework can be drawn for the local authority for taking mitigative
action to reduce potential damage and losses. Such framework in turn can be embedded into the
disaster management plan to reduce seismic vulnerability of area. Experiences however reveal
that there are various problems which tend to affect cities in reducing seismic risk such as;
i. Construction without Permit

ii. Violations of building code

iii. Shrinking courtyards

iv. Improper land use

v. Encroachment of open spaces

vi. Lack of alternative provisions for infrastructure services such as alternate transportation
route.

vii. Inadequate preparedness

The above factors are in general found to be prominent in loss of life and property at the time of
disaster.

4.0 RATIONALE OF THE STUDY

Out of the five municipalities in Kathmandu valley, Kirtipur was chosen because of its
convenient location close to Kathmandu. Despite this proximity, Kirtipur Municipality is also
least known about its seismic vulnerability, while it is almost neglected in the aspect of
development and planning. Also it typifies the problems faced by growing urban cities across
Nepal. For new municipalities like Kirtipur, there is an urgent need for rational planning before

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urban expansion becomes unmanageable, and such plan needs to give due attention to
requirement of disaster management. If the present trend of unplanned urban growth is continued
then there is likelihood of more life and property loss at the time of disaster. Only an appropriate
city planning strategy can reduce the potential risk. In this regard, risk assessment of an area for
the development of vulnerability scenario and inclusion of risk and vulnerability mitigating
measures in municipal city planning may become a useful endeavor. This thesis is expected to be
a timely effort in this direction.

5.0 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

The objective of the study is to know seismic vulnerability and formulate an appropriate
mitigation measures for the Kirtipur Municipality with the following supplementary objectives;

1) To develop vulnerability analysis techniques.

2) To develop coping strategy which may also include identifying;
a) The most vulnerable area within the study boundary,
b) The most vulnerable cluster of people.
The thesis therefore is hoped to contribute to enhance current understanding on seismic risk and
vulnerabilities vis-à-vis also improve open the current policies and practices pursued in seismic
risk management and planning.

6.0 SCOPE AND LIMITATION

The study shall be limited to representative wards located at the core and fringe areas of Kirtipur
Municipality. It is hoped that knowledge gained from these wards shall adequately reflect the
state of entire Municipality given the similar physical, social and economic aspect; although the
geological state of the core area is very much confined in a limited area. Primary data shall be
gathered from the selected wards by taking random sample of households by making inventory
of the day-night population, buildings, economy, education and others. Certain networks such as
the roads, water supply and sewerages will also be analyzed. In general, the following specific
points shall be included in the thesis;

i. The demographic situation, socio-economic and physical situations of the municipality.

ii. The information of physical infrastructure interpreted from the maps.

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 iii. Risk assessment of the area.
iv. Seismic vulnerability of the area.
v. Mitigative measures to reduce seismic risk and vulnerabilities.
However, this study will be limited on;
i. Data on population, infrastructure and service situation, geological condition shall be
gathered from the secondary sources, though the site verification shall be done.

ii. The software “RADIUS” shall be used to estimate the damages and losses.

iii. Key personals and professionals of line agencies, municipality and local people shall be
consulted to develop mitigative strategy.

iv. Although the risk analysis is done with respect to the mesh of 500m X 500m to the whole
municipality, the outcome shall be distributed ward wise; because ward is the smallest
political unit and other information are also available at ward level only.

v. The building other than residential are not analyzed separately.

vi. As RADIUS analyzed the infrastructures like roads and water supply networks
cumulatively within the study boundary it will not study ward wise.

vii. Though the recommendations for planning with due consideration of seismic
vulnerability shall be made, the planning and planning process shall not be included in
this thesis.

7.0 THEORY

Vulnerability appears to take two distinct schools of thoughts. First tends to define vulnerability
as the degree of loss that any element of society—whether that is people, physical or social
infrastructure or economic activity—would suffer as result of hazard (ICE, 1995). Second tends
to take a view whereby vulnerability is a condition or set of conditions that adversely affect a
person’s ability to prepare for, withstand or response to disaster (Twigg 1998, cf. Upreti 2006:
50). Household vulnerability may result from numerous reasons. These may include (a) lack of
access to assets (b) lack of access to information and knowledge (c) lack of strong national and
local institutional structures (d) disintegration of social pattern and (e) weak building structures
(ICE, 1995). However, significant emphasis is found to be laid on the physical vulnerability—
that may include elements such as individual's dwellings to city's major infrastructure services.

8
The argument is that reducing physical vulnerability has positive implications in terms of
reducing human casualties as well as reducing social and economic vulnerability at times of
disaster. Literatures are however limited in emphasizing or revealing as how reducing social and
economic vulnerability may lead to reduced physical vulnerability. The later contention is visible
when Upreti (2006: 50) states "in most cases, the immediate cause of vulnerability is physical,
yet the root causes are almost always economic or social." People living in the same location
may have different level of vulnerability depending on income and other social attributes such as
gender, age, and disability. Furthermore, the degree may be more or less depending on
accessibility to economic opportunities, shelter and basic services. Locational attributes may
further compound susceptibility and vulnerability of the poor and disadvantaged groups against
hazards, as they are found to be located mostly in the marginalized areas of the city—which in
most cases tend to be hazards prone. Consequently, the poor and socially disadvantaged groups
tend to be vulnerable against hazards. On the other hand, political disturbance or disintegration
of social capital such as social networks and association can increase social and economic
vulnerability. This may have detrimental effect especially on poor households in increasing their
ability to access to opportunities and improve their resilience to hazards. UNDP (2004) further
notes the importance of the issue of governance in seismic risk reduction, in which it has
primarily pointed out to the significance especially of political and administrative governance,
thereby indicating the role of institutional capacity in both poverty and seismic risk reduction.

8.0 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

There are evolving widespread consensus/ understanding of vulnerability although; the
literatures are deeply rooted to physical perspective. Hence, Vulnerability is to be studied in
aggregate terms, considering all the physical, socio-economical and cultural elements. Till now
our practices also are focused on physical vulnerability, that can be reduced by engineering
design however other types of vulnerability can’t be simply reduced by any engineering design
and hence, linkage of engineering (physical) aspect with the socio-economic (social) aspect is
felt necessary. The objective of this research is to know seismic vulnerability and also attempts
to recommend an appropriate mitigation measures for the Kirtipur municipality. Side by side, it
also aims to develop vulnerability analysis techniques. The research strategy is sets out by purely
empirical and normative questions that are;

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 I) What is the extent of vulnerability of people in Kirtipur municipality against seismic
risk?

II) What could be the disaster mitigation measures in order to reduce the prevalent
vulnerability of people in Kirtipur municipality?

9.0 METHODS

For the study purpose the area of ‘Kirtipur municipality’ was selected due to its proximity and
data availability. Besides its socio economic and institutional context is similar to those of other
newly formed municipalities in the country, it also typifies the problems faced by growing urban
centers across Nepal. For the purpose of loss
estimation computer software RADIUS is
used. For that purpose the entire
municipality is divided into 99 square
meshes of 500 meter X 500 meter. Then the
random data from six different wards of the
municipality were collected. For this
purpose the crude data taken by the
municipality is extracted, processed and
analyzed. The result from the RADIUS is
further analyzed by using statistical tools
like SPSS in association with social data.
Then the relation between physical
information (loss) and social information is
tried to find out. For the soil type of the
area, map produced by DoMG is referred
and for the scenario earthquakes model,
model developed by JICA study team are
utilized respectively. Figure: Mesh Arrangements for RADIUS Analysis and
Demarcation Of Study Spots

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10.0 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY AREA

Kirtipur was identified as a town or urban locality in 1952/54, but it was declassified as a town in
1971 census when the criteria for designating urban localities were changed. In 1997, Kirtipur
municipality was formed by combining 8 surrounding VDCs namely. Kirtipur town lies on the
south-west of Kathmandu at a height of 1418 meters above mean sea level. The town is
elongated towards east and west with perimeter about 1400 meters. It is located at 27º 38’ 37” to
27º 41’ 36" N and 85º 14’ 64” to 85º 18’ 00" E. At present, Kirtipur municipality has 19 wards
and covers 1791.35 ha. of land (Shrestha B et al.2003) and total population of 40,835 with 21,686
males and 19,149 females in 9487 households (CBS 2001). It has population growth rate of 2.65%
(CBS, 2003), therefore it is estimated that the present population of Kirtipur is about 47278.

Kirtipur is one of the oldest settlements in the Kathmandu valley and its history goes back to
ancient times. “According to the Padmagari chronicle in the brahmanical Era Kirtipur was the
home town of the earliest kings of the valley.”(Shokoohy M 1994).

In the past Kirtipur had suffered from many earthquakes. Among those the 1808 and 1833 are
the major ones. The people of Kirtipur have wrong perception that the hill site of their town is
one single solid rock and therefore earthquakes have little effect on their buildings. However
many buildings have been destroyed and damaged, some of the houses may have shown greater
resistance due to their good structures (Ibid 95-7, cf (Shokoohy, 1994-18). In 1934 Bihar Nepal
earthquake many of the buildings of Kirtipur were destroyed and badly damaged. Some of these
are still uninhabited and in a state of disrepair, many others are replaced with new constructions.
(J.B. Auden and A.M.N. Ghosh, preliminary account of the earthquake of 1934 in Bihar Nepal cf Shokoohy, 1994-
20). Amongst the buildings damage in that earthquake some religious structures, the Uma

Maheshwor temple lost its top, which was restored only a decade ago, but not in its original form
(Prof S. R. Tiwari cf Shokoohy, 1994) and the Jagatpal Vihar.

Figure: The Panoramic View Of The Settlement Of Kirtipur

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Kathmandu valley is underlain by soft
soil lacustrine deposits. This thick and
weak material is expected to produce
high amplification during the
earthquake (Guragain 2004).
According to the geological map of
Kathmandu valley, Major part of the
Kirtipur Municipality area contains the
low bearing capacity soils consists of
Kalimati formation (Klm) and other
some parts remains Alluvial fan
deposit (Salf), Sopyang formation Figure: The Geologically (Soil) Condition Of Kirtipur (Source,
DoMG, 2006)
(Sp), Chandragiri formation,
Chapagaon Terrace Deposit also about 8-10% of the whole municipality area consists hard rock
of Tistung formation (Ti). There are numerous faults and lineaments in and around the valley,
but the question is that all of them have not studied whether or not they are active. Some of them
which have been studied by different personnel are Thankot Fault (Saijo et al 1995), Chovar
Fault (Saijo et al 1995),
Chandragiri Fault (Saijo et
al 1995), Kathmandu South
Fault ( Yagi et al 2000),
Danuwargaun Fault (
Sakai H 2001), Kalphu
Fault (Nakata in 1982),
Chitlang Fault (Nakata in
1982), Kulekhani Fault
(Nakata in 1982) and Sun
Koshi-Rosi Fault (Nakata
in 1982).
Figure: Different Faults within Valley (Source Sakai H, 2001)

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12.0 EVIDENCES AND ANALYSIS

12.1 Economy
This below figure suggest that the
Financial Status Of Kirtipur Municipality
Financial status of the Kirtipur 35000 (Source, Kirtipur Municipality)
Municipality is running almost at the 30000
25000
same level since its initial stages

NRs, 000
20000

which obviously unable to cope with 15000

10000
the fast development trend. Therefore 5000

from this we can simply predict that 0

2053/54 2055/56 2057/58 2059/60 2061/62
the economic condition is not so Income(NRs,000) Expenses(NRs,000)

strong to cope the seismicity in the Figure: Financial Status Of The Municipality (Source, Kirtipur
Municipality)
Municipality within its own financial
resources. The Economic activity of the Kirtipur shows a major source of income primarily from
Employment sector (job). From the field survey it is found that the main source of HH income is
from job, comprising 78% in ward no. 18 and 19, 72% in ward 16 and least 41% in ward 4. It
also proves from the land holding scenario of the Area. The majority of the HH has no land. That
comprises 55 % in ward no 4 and 49% in ward no. 18. Similarly, the maximum HH of the area
has less than Rupees 6000 per month. It comprises of 84% in ward no. 18 and 83% in ward
fourteen.

12.2 Housing and household

From the field survey it has found that the Household head of the family within the Municipality
is dominated by the male. At ward no. 4 and 14, 85% of the HH is headed by the male where as
at ward no. 19, it comes to 86%, even 89% in ward 18. Up to 18 members family in a single HH
is also found from the field survey. But the maximum 74% of HH has 3-6 members in Ward
no19 and 71% of HH has 3-6 members in Ward 18.The Building story of the study area is
dominated by maximum of 2-4 story, It comprises by 16%- 2 story, 43% - 3 story and 32%- 4
story in ward no. 4 and 52%- 2 story and 18% - 3 story in ward no. 19. The Building structure
type of the study area is dominated by the adobe (46%), RCC structures comprises by only 18%
in ward no. 4 where as the building structure is dominated by load bearing in cement mortar in
ward no. 19, that comprises of 58% and burnt brick in mud mortar also has a higher share of 39
percentages.

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12.3 Education
The Education level in the HH is seems
Highest education in the HH
quite good because the HH has at least (Source, Field Survey)
one member having secondary level Masters Degree
10% Illetrate
education which comprises of 50 % at Graduate 0%
ward no 19. But the core area i.e. Ward 17%

no 4 have little different scenario of

education level. The Maximum
Higher Secondary
percentage of HH has at least primary Secondary 50%
level education, that comprises of 31% , 23%

The percentage of illiterate population is

Figure: HH Education Level at Ward 4 (Source, Kirtipur
4 %, Secondary level 27%, Higher Municipality, 2006)

secondary 21%, Graduate 11% and

Holding at least Masters degree is 6% at ward four.

12.4 The institutional arrangement

Kirtipur is a new municipality, the institutional setup within the municipality is found not so
strong. Weak institutional set up is generally found in plan making, policy formulation and
implementation stages also. The strong administrative governance can enforce the building
codes, land use planning and safety standards within its political boundary. The strong
institutional setup shall have sufficient technical as well as financial resources. The resources
within the municipality seem minimum to withstand the earthquake disaster. The Municipality
has neither separate disaster management section (see Organization structure of the municipality)
nor coordinated with other such organizations and institutions. Kirtipur lies in shadow from other
valley towns therefore the INGOs, NGOs and CBOs are not find working effectively there. The
budget is running almost constantly. There is neither the provision of budget nor any training for
any type of disaster related works. Since Municipality lack the technical as well as financial
resources; the preparedness, response and recovery, rescue and relief, evacuation, awareness
building plan and programmes are not formulated. When there is no any plan and programme
formulated within the municipality the seismic vulnerability mitigating measures like
participation of the local people, decentralization, institutional strengthening are almost week.
The ward no 10 has formed a disaster management unit five years before, but there is no any
progress regarding this to the entire municipality.
14
The analysis reveals the
Kathmandu Valley Local
Earthquake is found to
cause highest loss among
the four earthquake
scenarios considered.
Several buildings in the
middle and the south-west
of the Municipality are Figure: Buildings Damage Ratio In KVL Earthquake

expected to damage.
Damages shall be as high as
35 percent in some locations
around Panga and
Nayabazar. The building
damages are likely to be
small in the core area and
around Chovar. Total 1732
Figure: Deaths Toll Distribution In KVL Earthquake
buildings (that is, 22.6 % of
the total building count) and
3.6 kilometer of road are
likely to damage within the
Municipality. Death toll of
260 and injury involving
3267 persons are expected to
occur. The casualties related
to the death and injury seems Figure: Injury Distributions In KVL Earthquake
to be highest around Panga
and north-east side of hilltop.

15
 SUMMARY OF RADIUS ANALYSIS (KVL EARTHQUAKE) AND SOCIAL DATA
W. Soil Total Total Total Bldg Avg Avg Avg Avg Avg Ratio of Remarks
No. Type pop. Death Injury Damage Bldg. Bldg Edu HH HH Brahman
Count Story Struct Level Size income Chhetri/ Non
Nos % Nos % Nos (Rs/m) Brahman
% (Nos)
(Nos) Chhetri
4 Hard 984 1 0.1 19 1.93 19 9.8 3.33 B-m/m Sec 4.9 7375 3/149
rock (2.15) (7.96) (0.02:0.98)
9 Soft 1190 6 0.5 92 7.73 43 22.6 3.18 B-m/m Sec 3.6 5436 0/55 (0.0:1.0)
soil (2.38) (7.66)
14 Soft 687 3 0.44 41 5.96 26 18.4 2.75 B-m/m Sec 4.4 4833 0/60 (0.0:1.0)
rock (2.32) (7.43)
16 Soft 312 5 1.6 31 9.93 29 30.9 4.08 Adobe Sec 4.3 6683 0/64 (0.0:1.0)
soil (1.39) (7.60)
18 Soft 1459 0 0.0 24 1.64 11 8.0 2.59 B-C/m H Sec 4.2 4353 36/10
soil (2.87) (10.3) (0.78:0.22)
19 Soft 143 1 0.7 10 6.7 10 22.0 2.49 B-C/m Sec 4.1 5413 49/0 (1.0:0.0)
soil (2.51) (9.71)
Note: Avg= Average, Bldg= Building, Dmg= Damage, edu=Education, HH= Household, B-m/m= Brick in Mud-mortar, B-c/m= Brick in
Cement mortar, Sec=Secondary, H Sec=Higher Secondary, Pop=Population

16
The regression analysis reveal a tendency of curvilinear relations between the building damage
ratio and the household income, with R square equal to 0.822, and significance level of 0.075.
This reveals household income may be a significant explanatory factor behind the damage ratio
of the buildings. The relationship tends to indicate
that marginal increase in household income may not
have much effect on reducing building damages.
This may be explained by the fact that marginal
increase in household income is less likely to cause
any significant investment on improving quality of
housing. Only a significant increase in household
income is more likely to improve investment on
quality of housing and therefore decrease building
damage ratio. We can find the value of damage
Graph: Relationship between Building Damage
ratio with respect to some level of HH income
Ratio and HH Income from Regression Analysis
which shall be the threshold level.

13.0 FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION

This study reveals that vulnerability of people against seismic risk is the resultant of complex
interplay among several causal factors namely locational, physical, socio-economic and
institutional factors. The Kirtipur Municipality therefore regardless of its location is susceptible
to seismic vulnerability, although magnitude of loss whether that be building or infrastructure
damages or human casualties appears to vary depending on the soil conditions, quality of
buildings, income status and awareness level of households, and the institutional capacity of the
municipality itself. Damage of physical
Hazard
assets—whether that be housing or
municipal infrastructures tend to be higher
in the case where soil type is soft alluvial, Poverty
Seismic
Institution
building constructions are of low quality, vulnerability

and households have low awareness level

and vice-versa. Similarly the human injury
and deaths is directly related to physical Building/
Structures
damages of the area. Human injury and
Figure: Extents Of Vulnerability
17
deaths is higher where the building damage ratios are higher and vice versa.

The study reveals the extent of seismic vulnerability is influenced by several causal factors. The
locational attributes such as soil type and Epicentral distance are prominent. The other
prominent factor which appears to increase or decrease seismic vulnerability appears to be the
geographical proximity of seismic activity itself. Quality of buildings and infrastructures such as
greater building height using poor quality construction materials are also found to be important
explanatory factors in influencing seismic vulnerability. Socio-economic variables such as
household income are found to be significant in influencing household vulnerability against
seismic hazard. As households with lesser income, are less likely to invest on improving the
quality of buildings and vice-versa. Marginal increase in income may not necessarily improve
the quality of housing hence the greater damages in housing may prevail. Only when income
grows beyond a certain threshold level then investment on housing is likely to occur resulting in
decreasing losses. By far, lower income households tend to be the most vulnerable of all. The
losses appear to compound with the households having lower education level. The casualties are
also found to be higher with increasing share of population age group below ten years and above
60 years. Institutional capacity seems to be another prominent casual factor in influencing
seismic vulnerability. This newly established Municipality lacks the institutional capacity to
understand hazard, its implications and organize its people and resources for the future event in a
planned framework

14.0 RECOMMENDATION
Mitigating measures prepared in this research is basically three step model (Refer chapter 7),
which comprises of first identifying sources of vulnerability, second identifying key elements
and third proposing mitigation measures. Earthquake hazards, quality of buildings, poverty and
institutional provisions are the major sources of seismic vulnerability. The impacts of hazards
should be mitigated by maintaining the provision of zoning and appropriate foundation design.
Structural source of vulnerability due to physical factors should be mitigated by the enforcement
of the building regulations in case of new buildings and retrofit for the old.

To mitigate the socio-economic vulnerability, poverty reduction should be prioritized, and it

should be reduced through diversifying the sources of income and employment opportunities

18
which also cater to the needs of the poor and marginalized group. Poverty reduction strategy
should aim to achieve sustained and diversified economic growth, accelerating human
development through emphasis on basic social services and economic infrastructure, and
ensuring social and economic inclusion of the poor and marginalized groups in the development
process and pursuing good governance. The vulnerability related to institutional provision should
be mitigated by strengthening the institutional capability of the local bodies and efforts must be
made to foster decentralization of disaster management programs including vulnerability
reduction activities to the community level ensuring community mobilization and coordination
between all the stakeholders.

Vulnerability Analysis

Identification of Sources of Vulnerability

Hazard Structures Poverty Institution

Identification of Key elements

Location Physical Socio- Institutional

factors economy provision

Mitigation Measures

- Zoning -Building -Diverse -Strengthening

- Foundation regulation income -Decentralization
treatment -Retrofit -Incentives -Coordination
- Awareness - Training - Participation
- Insurance
- Standards &
guide lines

Safer City

Figure: Flow-chart pertaining to reducing seismic vulnerability

19
The strategic framework for institutional
arrangement in disaster management
including vulnerability reduction is
proposed below to involve municipality at
the center stages which can play the
bridging role between community and the
national level institutions. This aims at
greater community mobilization in
reducing seismic vulnerability. Besides
the general model, some measures specific
to Kirtipur Municipality are recommended
to consist of immediate, intermediate, and
Figure: Strategic frameworks for disaster risk
the long-term counter-measures, keeping in reduction (Source: Dhamala K and Subba M, 2007)
mind of its institutional capability, the
quality of the structures within the municipal area, the socio-economic and cultural situation and
the locational attributes and hazard potential. As an immediate measure, the Kirtipur
Municipality must emphasize on preparing land classification plan which clearly identifies soil
capability within its jurisdiction. The Municipality must give due consideration to the grey areas
such as ward 16 lying in between the core and the periphery (which shows high degree of
building damages in analysis) and formulate special intervention measures including technical
and financial supports to upgrade the quality of existing buildings.

Kirtipur Municipality requires not only reorganize its institutional structure and motivate its
personnel through trainings and exposure to cope with the above challenges, but also focus on
building linkages with the national and international organizations involved in the disaster
management programs. The Municipality must also continuously put efforts in order to increase
awareness level about the threats of hazards among its citizens. As an intermediate and the long-
term action, the Municipality needs to emphasize on diversifying ways to create income
opportunities for its citizens especially by exploiting its tourism potential and traditional cottage
industries. The Municipality may also create a situation by which private investment can be
attracted to promote small and intermediate sized industries.

20
15.0 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
ADPC : Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
CBDM : Community Based Disaster Management
CBS : Central Bureau of Statistics
DoMG : Department of Mines and Geology
DRI : Disaster Risk Index
DUDBC : Department of Urban Development and Building Construction
FEMA : Federal Emergency Management Agency
GIS : Geographic Information System
GoN : Government of Nepal
HH : Household
ICIMOD : International Center for Integrated Mountain Development
IDNDR : International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
INGO : International Non-Government Organization
ITC : International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation
JICA : Japan International Cooperation Agency
KMC : Kathmandu Metropolitan City
KVERMP : Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project
MBT : Main Boundary thrust
MCT : Main Central Thrust
MFT : Main frontal thrust
MMI : Modified Mercalli Intensity
MoHA : Ministry Of Home Affairs
NCRA : Natural Calamities Relief Act
NEA : Nepal Electricity Authority
NGO : Non-Government Organization
NSET : National Society for Earthquake Technology
NTC : Nepal Telecom Company Ltd.
NWSC : Nepal Water supply Cooperation
RADIUS :Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters
UNDP : United Nations Development Programme
VDC : Village Development Council

21
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