Title: Exploring the Security Development Nexus: The Long-term Relationship between Internal Conflict

and Economic Growth in Pakistan using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL).

Abstract:

This research aims to investigate the long-term relationship between prevalence of internal conflict (net
conflict) and economic growth in Pakistan using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling.
With the help of this, the study will further uncover the dynamics of the Security Development (SD)
Nexus, which posits that developing countries must prioritize security improvements before embarking on
economic reforms, in the case of Pakistan. In other words, It seeks to determine whether Pakistan should
reassess the SD Nexus narrative and prioritize economic development over security reforms or continue
to allocate resources towards enhancing security measures. The paper will further examine whether
improvements in economic indicators such as level of education, inflation rate, and trade openness
contribute to a decreased likelihood of conflict within the country. Through the application of ARDL
methodology, this study endeavours to elucidate how fluctuations in levels of internal conflict influence
economic growth patterns over an extended period. The findings of this research contribute to a nuanced
understanding of the intricate interplay between conflict dynamics and economic performance in
Pakistan. Ultimately, the insights gained will expand on the evidence-based policymaking efforts that are
aimed at fostering sustainable development and peace within the nation.

Introduction:

Pakistan, like many other developing countries, faces the challenge of balancing security needs with
economic development aspirations. The Security Development Nexus posits that countries must prioritize
security improvements before undertaking economic reforms. However, this narrative raises questions
about the optimal allocation of resources and the sequencing of policy priorities. This research aims to
investigate the long-term relationship between internal conflict and economic growth in Pakistan,
shedding light on the Security Development Nexus and informing evidence-based policymaking for
sustainable development and peace.

Research Objectives:

 To examine the long-term relationship between internal conflict and economic growth in Pakistan
using ARDL model.
 To assess the direction and magnitude of the impact of internal conflict on various dimensions of
economic growth, including GDP growth, investment, and productivity.
 To identify potential mechanisms through which internal conflict affects economic growth, such
as disruptions to production, investment, human capital accumulation, and investor confidence.
 To explore the role of policy interventions and institutional factors in mitigating the adverse
effects of internal conflict on economic growth in Pakistan.

Research Questions:

 How does the Security Development Nexus manifest in Pakistan's context, and should the
country prioritize security reforms or economic development as its primary focus?
 What is the long-term relationship between internal conflict and economic growth in Pakistan,
and how do variations in economic performance influence conflict levels over time?
  To what extent do improvements in economic indicators such as education, inflation rate, and
trade openness contribute to reducing the likelihood of internal conflict in Pakistan?
 What are the short-term and long-term dynamics between economic development and internal
conflict in Pakistan, and how do these dynamics impact the country's overall stability and growth
trajectory?

Methodology:

This research will employ Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling techniques to analyze
time-series data on internal conflict indicators (e.g., number of conflict incidents, severity index, Rate of
fatalities) and economic indicators (e.g., GDP per capita, primary gross enrollment ratio, Trade Openness
Indicator and Inflation rate) in Pakistan. The ARDL model allows for the estimation of both short-term
and long-term effects, capturing the dynamic relationship between internal conflict and economic growth
while controlling for potential confounding factors. The analysis will also explore potential interactions
and moderating effects among socioeconomic variables to better understand their combined influence on
the Security Development Nexus.

Data Collection:

Data for this study will be sourced from reputable sources such as the Global Terrorism Database (GTD),
World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Pakistan's national statistical agency (PBS). The
dataset will cover a time period spanning 20 years to capture long-term trends and fluctuations in internal
conflict and economic indicators.

Significance of Research

This research aims to contribute to a nuanced understanding of the Security Development Nexus and its
implications for Pakistan's development trajectory. By empirically examining the relationship between
internal conflict and economic growth, the study will provide insights into the optimal allocation of
resources and policy priorities. The findings will inform evidence-based policymaking aimed at fostering
sustainable development, peace, and stability in Pakistan and other conflict-affected regions.

The outcomes of this research could have significant implications for policymakers, development
practitioners, and researchers working on conflict resolution, economic development, and peacebuilding.
By elucidating the dynamics between internal conflict and economic growth, the study will offer
actionable insights to guide policy interventions, resource allocation, and sequencing of reforms for
promoting sustainable development and peace in Pakistan.

This research seeks to unpack the complex interplay between internal conflict and economic growth in
Pakistan, offering insights into the Security Development Nexus and informing evidence-based
policymaking for sustainable development and peace. Through rigorous analysis and empirical evidence,
the study aims to contribute to the academic literature and provide practical guidance for addressing the
multifaceted challenges facing conflict-affected countries like Pakistan.