2022 Shamnur & Co.

LLC
This feasibility study is presented to objectively uncover the strengths and weaknesses
of Shamnur & Co. It will help to identify and assess the opportunities and threats
present in the natural environment, the resources required for the project, and the
prospects for success.

Shamnur & Co. Osh c., 723500

 Shamnur & Co.

DISCLAIMER

The information and opinions contained in this document are not intended to be the sole basis
upon which the implementation of the opportunity contemplated herein (the “Opportunity”)

can be decided. It is therefore advisable for the recipient(s) to make its/their own judgment
and assessment of the information and the Opportunity contained in this document.

Opinions expressed herein reflect the judgment as of the date of this document and may be
subject to change without notice, whether specific to the Opportunity or general, which may

have a material impact on any such opinions. No responsibility is undertaken herein for any
consequences resulting from the use of this document as well as the reliance upon any opinion

or statement contained herein or for any omission.

The preparation of this document is intended for information purposes only and is not tailored

to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person or entity
who may receive this material. Investors should receive independent financial advice regarding

the appropriateness of investing in any securities, financial instrument, or investment strategy

discussed in this document. This document is intended to be directed to qualified investors

only.

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 Shamnur & Co.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

About Our Company .................................................................................................... 5

1. Industry Analysis ..................................................................................................... 7

1.1. Production .................................................................................................................. 8

1.2. Top Players ................................................................................................................. 9

1.3. Demand ....................................................................................................................11

2. Market Analysis .................................................................................................... 12

2.1. Uzbekistan .................................................................................................................12

2.2. Kazakhstan ................................................................................................................14

2.3. Tajikistan ....................................................................................................................16

2.4. Kyrgyzstan .................................................................................................................17

3. Operational Feasibility ......................................................................................... 18

3.1. Location ....................................................................................................................18

3.2. Engineering Process .................................................................................................19

3.3. Manufacturing technology .....................................................................................19

3.4. Raw material and resources ....................................................................................22

4. SWOT Analysis ....................................................................................................... 23

5. Financial Analysis ................................................................................................. 24

5.1. Five-years profit and loss projection ........................................................................24

5.2. Five-years projected statement of financial position ............................................26

5.3. Five-years projected cash flow ...............................................................................27

5.4. Visualizations .............................................................................................................28

5.5. Financial modeling assumptions .............................................................................30

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 Shamnur & Co.

5.6. Investor payback period .........................................................................................34

5.7. Sensitivity analysis .....................................................................................................36

5.8. Ratio analysis.............................................................................................................40

6. Assumptions and Limiting Conditions ................................................................. 41

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About Our
Company

A Brief Story Introduction of the Company

Shamnur & Co. LLC is planning to construct a construction

cement factory in Issyk-Kul region, Kyrgyz Republic. It has planned
to introduce technological processes that ensure the highest
environmental safety of products. The products produced by the
entity will not only meet the quality requirements of European
standards but also the requirements stipulated by the legislation
of the Kyrgyz Republic.
Unique selling proposition of our products will be their superior
quality and lower market price. There is own quarry for cement
production which makes lower production costs. In addition,
highly qualified specialists will be hired who will be able to provide
required quality.

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 Shamnur & Co.

Vision
Our vision is to provide a pleasant, nurturing and
growth oriented environment which encourages our
employees to be highly productive and to grow
personally and professionally.

Mission
We are dedicated to support our customers by
providing superior products by constantly seeking
renewal through application of new technologies
and best business practices.

Our Values
Shamnur has our client’s best interest in mind. We are
guided by strong core values and professional ethics as
well as inclusion and respect for the varying differences in
each region we will operate in. We believe that actions
speak louder than words. We believe in ethical and fair
cooperation with our customers, colleagues, and even
with people with whom we are not connected. When we
talk about values, they are not only anchored in our
working environment but also in our life beyond work.

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1. Industry Analysis
Cement is an important building material. The Sector has a huge economic
impact due to its long and diverse supply chain.
Size
In CY21, the estimated global cement
industry stood at USD~327bln (CY20:
USD~314bln), contributing ~0.3% to the
global GDP. The market is expected to
reach USD~459bln by CY28 with a CAGR
of ~5.1%. The industry also contributes
~7.7% to world employment.
Consumption
Cement is a hygroscopic substance with
a maximum shelf life not greater than 3
months, therefor cement consumption
closely matches production numbers.
Shamnur & Co.
Production
Global cement production stood at
~4.4bln MT in CY21 recording a growth of
~4.7% YoY. Cement production volumes
are highly dependent on clinkering
capacity;the process is highly energy
intensive and clinker is the primary raw
material of all cement blends; In CY21
global clinker production capacity grew
by ~12mln MT and stood at ~3.7bln MT.
Regional Distribution
China is the largest producer and
consumer of cement, as it produces ~57%
of total global cement.
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 Shamnur & Co.

1.1. Production

Global cement production is regionally concentrated. Top five countries

accounted for ~68.5% of the world’s clinker production capacity which hovered
around ~3.7bln MT in CY21.

Global Cement Production

4500 6.00%
5.00%
4400
4.00%
4300 3.00%
2.00%
4200
1.00%
4100
0.00%

4000 -1.00%
-2.00%
3900
-3.00%
3800 -4.00%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Global cement production stood at ~4.4bln MT in CY21 (CY20: ~4.2bln MT).

China stands out as the outlier in global cement manufacturing both in capacity
and actual production with more than half of the global market share. The
next country to follow, India, has a market share of less than ~10% in global
production.

Being an energy-intensive process, cement manufacturing is the third largest

industrial polluter. Tightening government regulations and increasing
environmental concerns are pushing the adoption of green cement. The green
cement concept refers to cement manufactured from emissions-reducing
processes and/or the use of less clinker substituted with fly ash or blast-furnace
slag.

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Regional capacity & Production (mIn MT)

Clinker Capacity Cement Production
Sr #. Country CY 20 CY 21 CY 20 CY 21
1. China 54% 53% 57% 57%

2. India 8% 7% 7% 7%

3. Vietnam 2% 2% 2% 2%

4. USA 3% 3% 2% 2%

5. Turkey 2% 2% 2% 2%

6. Indonesia 2% 2% 2% 1%

7. Brazil 2% 2% 1% 1%

8. Iran 2% 2% 2% 1%

9. Russia 2% 2% 1% 1%

10. KSA 2% 2% 1% 1%

11. Others 21% 21% 23% 23%

1.2. Top Players

Cement industry is one of the essential sectors of the global economy. This is due
to its massive standalone output as well as its significance in being an essential
part of the supply chain for some major industries such as construction, chemicals
and exploration of natural resources.

Due to the high capital-intensive nature of the business, the industry tends to be
oligopolistic as the market is mostly controlled by only by a few firms in many
countries around the world.

The global cement market is dominated by big companies and the top ten
largest cement companies have an estimated market share of ~54.2%.

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China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of cement as it accounts for
~56.8% of the total global production. Therefore, 3 of the top 10 global players
are located there. China’s cement production is eight times that of the world’s

Second-largest producer, India (~7.5%) where only 1 of the top 10 players is

located.

Sr #. Company Origin CY 20 Revenues (USD)

China National Building Material

1. China 37
Group

2. Cement Roadstone Holdings Ireland 28

3. Anhui Conch Cement China 26

4. Holcim France 25

5. HeidelbergCement Germany 20

6. Cemex Mexico 13

7. Votorantim Cimentos Brazil 7

8. Ultratech India 6

China Resources Cement

9. China 5
Holdings

10. Taiwan Cement Corp Chinese Taipei 4

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1.3. Demand

As the COVID-19-related restrictions have eased, the CY21 global cement

consumption is estimated to have rebounded at ~6%
~-5% which had tanked by ~-5% in CY20.
2022
However, the momentum slowed down in 2HCY21 as
the low base was realized, while cost pressure also
mounted owing to higher energy prices and margins
2021 got squeezed due to low-cost pass ability.
- ~6%
Following the slowdown, demand is expected to grow
at a normal ~4% growth rate in CY22; selling prices are expected to increase
gradually, while restoration of industry margins is mainly subject to energy and
freight cost movements in the near future.

Robust demand for construction, expanding urbanization, infrastructure additions

& enhancements, and increasing disposable income are expected to keep
cement demand steady going forward; as in CY21 construction activities in the
world’s biggest economies averaged ~10% growth rates.

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2. Market Analysis
Central Asia has been experiencing stable growth since 2019, including last year
despite the pandemic. According to CW’s Global Volume Forecast Report May
2021, Eastern Europe and the CIS region’s cement demand was expected to
grow at a rate of 4.2% in 2021.

Growth expectations for Central Asia are moderately higher at an

estimated 5 – 6%. The spread of the pandemic has made its
presence felt in the region, adversely impacting economic growth
and societal well-being. Still, Uzbekistan was only one of the three
European and Central Asian economies that were able to maintain positive
economic growth in 2020.

The region’s cement demand is expected to remain robust, especially in the

major markets of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

2.1. Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan’s economy is export-driven with a strong reliance on gold, petroleum

gas, and natural cotton yarn. In Uzbekistan, cement production in 2021 is
expected to be around 16.4 million tons
according to the Uzstroymaterialy
Association’s forecast. Effectively this
would translate into an increase of almost
Demand
17-18 MTs 30% or 3.9 million tons more than 2020.
Production Demand, however, is expected to be
16.4 MTs
between 17 to 18 million tons driven by
strong construction demand, primarily
housing construction.

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At the beginning of 2021, a total of 33 cement plants were operational, with the
main concentration of production sites in Tashkent, Navoi, and Fergana. More
than three-quarters of all cement produced in Uzbekistan comes from only six
enterprises:

 JSC Kyzylkumcement  Jizzakh

 Akhangarantsement  Sherabad cement plants (part
 Kuvasaycement of Almalyk Mining and
 Bekabadcement Metallurgical Plant JSC).

With sustained cement demand growth expected to remain a permanent fixture

for at least the next two decades given the requirement for 145 000 new housing
units annually to keep up with population trends as well as the replacement of
old housing stock, additional capacity is expected to come online. In 2021 alone,
10 new enterprises with a cumulative capacity of 5 million t are expected to be
launched. Over the 2021 – 2023 timeline, an additional investment of US$500
million and a capacity of 3 million t is expected to be implemented in the
autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan located within Uzbekistan.

The region has seen growing Chinese influence over recent years,
especially in the construction sector, with an increasing number of
companies making a play, as China focuses on expanding the Belt
and Road Initiative (BRI), an important strategic project linking
China through Russia to Europe, as discussed in depth in CW Group’s World
Cement Report. It is expected that the coming years will see yet more Chinese
players making investments in the Uzbek cement sector.

Numerous infrastructure projects will help to sustain demand diversification and

reduce dependence on housing construction. The Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China
railway is an extremely important strategic project that is expected to be
completed in the next few years and will aid in improving the transport links

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between the three countries. This is especially important given that both
Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are landlocked.

This route gains even more significance given a previously agreed plan (02
February 2021) to build a 573 km route from Mazar-e-Sharif to Peshawar, via
Kabul, thus linking Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan. This was even hailed in
Uzbekistan as ‘the event of the century because of its possible transformative
impact on Uzbekistan’s economy. This project has an estimated cost of US$5
billion, will open Pakistani seaports on the Arabian Gulf to Uzbekistan, and is
expected to aid in Afghanistan’s gradual integration into the Central Asian
economic system.

However, given the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan,

in addition to differences in railway gauges utilized in the three
countries and the inhospitable terrain of the Hindu Kush mountains,
where a significant portion of the construction will take place, it is
expected that the railway link through China remains the most likely, if not the
most economical project. This will ensure that Uzbekistan’s reliance on China only
grows.

There are numerous other railway projects including additional lines for Tashkent
and upgrading of various railway lines across the country. Additionally, some 29

road infrastructure projects are currently expected to be implemented and

completed between 2020 – 2025. These projects were announced in 2020 and
are currently being finalized, with work having commenced on some of them.

2.2. Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is the region’s largest economy by some way, with a strong reliance
on exports of natural resources, namely crude oil and petroleum gas among
others. In 2020, the country’s GDP was negatively impacted as the global

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economy experienced its worst year since the great depression with oil
consumption drastically declining. With proactive measures from the government
and the national banking regulator, various measures were adopted that helped
mitigate and defray the impact of the economic challenges brought about by
the pandemic.

In April 2020, the Nurly Zhol State Infrastructure Development

Program for 2020 – 2025 was adopted by the government and aims
to implement 112 infrastructure projects with a total value of 5.5
trillion tenges (approximately US$12.8 billion) between 2020 to

2025. In April 2021, the number of construction projects from 2021 to 2025
increased to 158, in addition to 23 specific transportation and 58 mining projects.

The construction sector in Kazakhstan is, much like its neighbor Uzbekistan, driven
by housing construction. In 2021, a total of 11 cement plants are operational (with
a total production capacity of 16.5 million tpy), as opposed to 12 plants the
previous year. Given the strong prospects for the Kazakh economy, as crude oil
and natural gas prices rebound on the back of global economic recovery, there
remain prospects for further developments in production capacity. As with most
other countries in the region, China is expected to be a major player in the market
as the country continues to increase its presence across the BRI region, especially
as production capacity and rigorous environmental measures in China restrict
domestic avenues for growth.

In 2020, there were 15.3 million m2 of housing construction completed for 1.9
trillion tenges. The Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development stated that
in 2021 the state expects 17 million m2 to be constructed. In total, during the
period of 2021 – 25, an estimated 103 million m2 of new housing will be
constructed.

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The period from January to April 2021 saw a 16% increase in the price of building
materials. Kazakhstan’s construction sector has been negatively impacted by its
reliance on imports, with 50% of all steel structures and over 99% of sheet glass
being imported. While the country is, for the time being, self-reliant in terms of
cement and concrete, pressure on these sectors is expected as demand
continues to be robust.

A growing cause of concern is the bottlenecks put in place by the state itself.
Currently, only the Kazakhstan Housing Company provides a ‘warranty’ in cases
where the construction company is unable to complete a project. Under the
current regulations set by the National Bank, there is a limit to the guarantee that
can be provided to a construction project. For example, if a major developer
invests in a project, only one-fifth is covered by guarantees.

With the increase in building material prices, and government mandates requiring
specific volumes of public housing construction at previously agreed prices, there
is rising fear amongst construction companies that a wave of defaults is next to
certain unless the government issues a decree revising the prices of existing
contracts that were in place from January 2019 to 2021.

2.3. Tajikistan

Tajikistan has 19 cement plants with a total estimated production capacity of

about 5.6 million tpy, with the commissioning of a 0.6 million tpy grinding plant in
the Jaloliddini Balkhi district of Khatlon province by Mohir Cement. Chinese-Tajik
joint ventures dominate the cement industry landscape in the country and will
likely continue to determine the sector’s growth going forwards.

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2.4. Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan’s total cement capacity is 3 million tpy. Domestic consumption

remains below 2 million tpy, while the remaining production is destined for
exports, predominantly to Uzbekistan. In 10M 2020, cement enterprises of the
Republic of Kyrgyzstan produced 1.65 million tons of cement, which is 8.3 % less
than in January-October 2019. The volume of cement production in October last
year increased by 51 % compared to October 2019 and amounted to 225,800
tons.

The volume of cement production in Q1 2020 was 34.2 % lower than Q1 last year.
H1 2020 indicated a 24.3 % decrease YoY. The deficit in production volume in
January-September amounted to 13.6 %.

The volume of ready-mixed concrete production in Kyrgyzstan in October 2020

increased by 7.6 % compared to October 2019, up to 73,800 tons. In January-
October, the volume of production of ready-mixed concrete decreased by 17.2
% YoY (down to 503,500 tons), improving the 9M result by 4,4 pp.

The total design capacity of the republic's enterprises reaches 3 million tons of
cement per year. In 2019, Kyrgyz factories produced 2 million tons of cement, 4 %
more than in 2018.

This scenario is likely to continue for the next few years while domestic demand
catches up to existing production capacity. Further investment in the country’s
cement sector is not expected in the short-to-medium term.

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3. Operational Feasibility
The operational feasibility of the entity is as under:

The plant will The plant will The Chinese A sum of The training of
be able to be located at partners will do $134,581,282 workers should
produce Issyk-Kul the complete will be spent start 2 months
approximately region, Tong designing of on the before the

Construction of plant

training
Production scale

Location

Designing the factory

equipment
and purchase of

Staff recruitment &

1 million tons district the plant as construction of factory project
cement on per the plant and is fully
annual basis international purchasing the completed.
standards. equipment.

3.1. Location

The Exact location is Kyrgyz Republic, Issyk-Kul region, Tong district, 14 km from the
village Ottuk. Tong is a district of
Issyk-Kul Region in north-eastern
Kyrgyzstan. The seat lies at
Bökönbaev. Its area is 7,230
square kilometres (2,790 sq mi),
and its resident population was
53,401 in 2021. Tong District
borders Issyk-Kul District to the
north-west, Jeti-Ögüz District to
the south and south-east, Kochkor District to the south-west, Naryn District to the
south, Kemin District to the north-west, and Issyk Kul - to the north.

Within the framework of this project, it is planned to purchase land plot of 15

hectares for the construction of a cement plant, and there is also an own quarry
for the extraction of raw materials for cement production near the planned site
of the Issyk-Kul region of Kyrgyzstan. Thus, the area of the proposed plant location
is located not far from the economically developed, livable city Balykchi, it is

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possible to supply all the necessary social infrastructure. The selection of the area
has been made after meticulously analyzing the multifaceted decision pivots i.e.,
availability of labor, proximity of market and raw material sites, logistical
considerations, provision of utilities, etc.

3.2. Engineering Process

3.3. Manufacturing technology

Extraction and transportation of raw materials . Grinding and preparation of

components. Clinker firing. Grinding to a powdery state, the introduction of
gypsum and other impurities, packing. (The first three stages, account up to 75%
of the total cost of cement production.

Then limestone and clay are pre-crushed, dried to a humidity of about 1% and
crushed into raw flour. Limestone and clay can be dried in two ways. First is using

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drying drums and other heat machines. Second is drying together in raw material
separator mills, in which the grinding and drying are carried out simultaneously.
The second way is more efficient and is used in most new factories which operates
by the dry method

To obtain raw flour of a certain chemical compositions of mills, it is sent to mixing,

and then to corrective silos, where raw flour with a deliberately low or high tiger (
content) is additionally supplied. In silos, flour is mixed with compressed air. The
prepared raw material mixture enters a system of cyclone heat exchangers
consisting of several (usually four) degrees of cyclones connected to each other
and with a short (40-70m) rotatory kiln with gas vents. Passing successively through
all cyclones, raw flour heated by flue gas moving towards it coming out of the
kiln. The residence time of the mixture in cyclone heat exchangers does not
exceed 20-30 seconds. Despite this, raw flour not only has time to heat up to a
temperature of , but also completely dehydrated and partially (by 20-25%)
decarbonized.

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 Shamnur & Co.

From cyclones, the material enters the kiln, where further reactions of cement
clinker formation occur.

Mining of raw material including Grinding raw material to a fine Raw meal is heated at a
limestone clay, gypsum and power, called raw meal temperature of ~ 1,450 ℃ in a
others cement kiln to produce clinker

Hot clinker exists from kiln and Cooled clinker mixed with Manufactured cement then
enters the clinker cooler to gypsum and other additions. It is stored in silos before packaging
reduce its temperature from 1, grinded into fine and and sale to end consumers.
450℃ to 100℃. homogenous powder, cement.

From the oven, the clinker is poured into the refrigerator and after cooling it is sent
to the clinker warehouse.

Other technological operations in the dry production method are the preparation
of hydraulic additives and gypsum, grinding of cement.

It’s storage and shipment to the consumer

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3.4. Raw material and resources

The major components of the prime product Portland Cement are provided
below. The entity will source each
Loam
Coal 6.0%
9.0%
component from a different source.
Gypsum
3.0%
For instance, Limestone, sandstone
Sandstone
5.0%
and slate will be extracted from own
quarry. Gypsum will be mined at its

Limestone own quarry in the Zhumgal district of

77.0%
Naryn region, which is located 100 km
away from the factory. Coal will be used from three deposits. Those are Karakichi,
Kyrgyz Republic (60%), Min-Kush, Kyrgyz Republic (20%) and Shabyrkul, Kazakhstan
(20%).

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4. SWOT Analysis

The SWOT Analysis is a necessary part of us because it gives an in-depth look at

our Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats.

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5. Financial Analysis
Five-Years of financial model has been developed on the basis of underlying
assumptions. The projected statements are provided below:

5.1. Five-years profit and loss projection

_ _ _ All Amounts in USD_ _ _

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Revenue 21,285,000 51,188,375 75,369,584 77,682,082 80,065,889

Ordinary Portland
17,850,000 42,899,500 63,123,550 65,017,257 66,967,774
Cement (OPC)

Sulphate Resistant
765,000 1,847,475 2,731,624 2,827,231 2,926,184
Cement (SRC)

White Cement 1,050,000 2,523,500 3,713,150 3,824,545 3,939,281

Rapid Hardening
750,000 1,820,000 2,704,000 2,812,160 2,924,646
Cement

Blast Furnance
600,000 1,449,000 2,142,450 2,217,436 2,295,046
Slag Cement

Clinker Direct Sales 270,000 648,900 954,810 983,454 1,012,958

Cost of Sales (7,355,585) (17,298,867) (24,585,245) (24,724,855) (24,856,379)

Salaries 573,353 1,473,657 1,977,802 2,117,412 2,248,936

Raw Material 540,540 1,261,260 1,801,800 1,801,800 1,801,800

Limestone 469,590 1,095,710 1,565,300 1,565,300 1,565,300

Sandstone 19,800 46,200 66,000 66,000 66,000

Gypsum 12,540 29,260 41,800 41,800 41,800

Coal 14,850 34,650 49,500 49,500 49,500

Loam 23,760 55,440 79,200 79,200 79,200

Energy & Water 2,452,350 5,722,150 8,174,500 8,174,500 8,174,500

Coal 1,052,250 2,455,250 3,507,500 3,507,500 3,507,500

Electricity 1,368,000 3,192,000 4,560,000 4,560,000 4,560,000

Fuel & Lubricants 29,400 68,600 98,000 98,000 98,000

Water 2,700 6,300 9,000 9,000 9,000

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 Shamnur & Co.
Overhead Costs 3,789,343 8,841,800 12,631,143 12,631,143 12,631,143

Gross Profit 13,929,415 33,889,508 50,784,338 52,957,227 55,209,510

Operating
(589,163) (786,224) (875,148) (943,345) (993,977)
Expenditures

Salaries & Wages 442,619 629,351 712,784 775,299 820,049

Marketing 12,000 12,855 13,305 13,770 14,252

Communication
2,400 2,571 2,661 2,754 2,850
Expenses

Software licenses 4,344 4,653 4,816 4,985 5,159

Other Indirect
127,800 136,794 141,582 146,537 151,666
Expenses

Earnings before
interest, tax,
13,340,252 33,103,284 49,909,190 52,013,882 54,215,533
depreciation, and
amortization

Depreciation &
Amortization (1,747,154) (1,747,154) (1,747,154) (1,747,154) (1,747,154)
Expense

Earnings before
11,593,098 31,356,130 48,162,037 50,266,728 52,468,379
interest and tax

Interest Expense (2,691,626) (5,383,251) (5,383,251) (4,037,438) (2,691,626)

Profit before tax 8,901,472 25,972,879 42,778,785 46,229,290 49,776,754

Tax Expense (890,147) (2,597,288) (4,277,879) (4,622,929) (4,977,675)

Profit after tax 8,011,325 23,375,591 38,500,907 41,606,361 44,799,078

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5.2.Five-years projected statement of financial position

_ _ _All Amounts in USD_ _ _

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Non-current assets

Fixed Assets 85,576,243 83,829,789 82,083,335 80,336,881 78,590,427

Intangibles 6,300 5,600 4,900 4,200 3,500

85,582,543 83,835,389 82,088,235 80,341,081 78,593,927

Current assets

Cash and Bank 76,100,605 99,598,991 104,820,424 114,355,630 127,075,584

Account
Receivable 1,749,452 4,207,264 6,194,760 6,384,829 6,580,758

Inventory 5,139 11,991 17,129 17,129 17,129

77,855,196 103,818,245 111,032,314 120,757,588 133,673,471

Total Assets 163,437,739 187,653,635 193,120,549 201,098,669 212,267,398

Owners’ Equity

Share capital 20,187,000 20,187,000 20,187,000 20,187,000 20,187,000

Retained Earnings 8,011,325 31,386,916 69,887,823 111,494,183 156,293,262

28,198,325 51,573,916 90,074,823 131,681,183 176,480,262

Non-Current
Liabilities

Loans 134,581,282 100,935,962 67,290,641 33,645,321 -

Long-Term Lease - - - - -

134,581,282 100,935,962 67,290,641 33,645,321 -

Current Liabilities

Accounts Payable 652,993 1,486,446 2,092,635 2,109,715 2,124,687

Other Payables 5,139 11,991 17,129 17,129 17,129

Short-Term Loans - 33,645,321 33,645,321 33,645,321 33,645,321

658,132 35,143,757 35,755,085 35,772,165 35,787,137

Total owners’ equity

and liabilities 163,437,739 187,653,635 193,120,549 201,098,669 212,267,398

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 Shamnur & Co.

5.3. Five-years projected cash flow

_ _ _All Amounts in USD_ _ _

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profit/(Loss) before tax 8,901,472 25,972,879 42,778,785 46,229,290 49,776,754

Additions to Net
Earnings

Interest Payments 2,691,626 5,383,251 5,383,251 4,037,438 2,691,626

Increase (Decrease)
in Current Operating
Liabilities 652,993 833,453 606,189 17,080 14,972
Increase (Decrease)
in Current Operating
Assets (1,749,452) (2,457,812) (1,987,497) (190,068) (195,929)
Non-cash losses and
expenses included in
net income 1,747,154 1,747,154 1,747,154 1,747,154 1,747,154

3,342,321 5,506,046 5,749,098 5,611,604 4,257,822

Interest Paid 2,691,626 5,383,251 5,383,251 4,037,438 2,691,626

Tax Paid 890,147 2,597,288 4,277,879 4,622,929 4,977,675

(3,581,773) (7,980,539) (9,661,130) (8,660,367) (7,669,301)

Net Cash Flow From

Operating Activities 8,662,020 23,498,386 38,866,753 43,180,526 46,365,275

Purchase of assets (87,329,697) - - - -

Net Cashflow from
Investing Activities (78,667,677) 23,498,386 38,866,753 43,180,526 46,365,275

Issuance of Share
Capital 20,187,000

Long-term Debt 134,581,282

Capital Repayment - - (33,645,321) (33,645,321) (33,645,321)

Net Cashflow from
Financing Activities 76,100,605 23,498,386 5,221,433 9,535,206 12,719,954

Cash at Beginning of
Year - 76,100,605 99,598,991 104,820,424 114,355,630

Cash at End of Year 76,100,605 99,598,991 104,820,424 114,355,630 127,075,584

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 Shamnur & Co.

5.4. Visualizations

Sales Trend

$72.06 M
$69.91 M
$67.83 M

$46.07 M

$19.16 M

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Gross Profit Margin

68.64%

67.87%

67.09%

65.89%

65.14%

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

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 Shamnur & Co.

EBITDA Margin

2024 2027 2026 2025 2023

64.18%

67.26%

66.52%

65.80%

62.07%

Net Profit Margin

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 Shamnur & Co.

5.5. Financial modeling assumptions

Basic Assumptions

Financial Year Start January

Start Month (Operations) Jan-23

Start Month Jan-23

Inflation 3.5%

Scenario Pessimistic

Sensitivity 10.0%

Tax Rate 10.0%

Interest Rate 4.0%

Depreciation Rate 10.0%

Amortization Rate 10.0%

Debtor Turnover 30 Days

Creditor Turnover 30 Days

Raw Material Assumptions

Content Consumption per Ton

77.0%
Limestone 1.423
5.0%
Sandstone 0.060
3.0%
Gypsum 0.038
9.0%
Coal 0.045

Loam 6.0% 0.072

1.638

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 Shamnur & Co.

Inventory Tunover

3 Days
Limestone

3 Days
Sandstone

7 Days
Gypsum

15 Days
Coal

3 Days
Loam

Energy & Water Assumptions

Unit Price Consumption Cost Allocated

Coal 30.5 0.115 3.5075 USD/Ton

Electricity 0.038 120 4.56 USD/Ton

Fuel & Lubricants 0.70 0.14 0.098 USD/Ton

Water 0.15 0.06 0.009 USD/Ton

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 Shamnur & Co.

Production Assumptions

Production Capacity 1,000,000 Tons

Per Month
Production Volume Per Annum (Absolute)
30.00%
Year 1 25,000 Tons
70.00%
Year 2 58,333 Tons
100.00%
Year 3 83,333 Tons
100.00%
Year 4 83,333 Tons
100.00%
Year 5 83,333 Tons

Revenue Streams

85.00%
Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC)

3.00%
Sulphate Resistant Cement (SRC)

3.50%
White Cement

2.50%
Rapid Hardening Cement

4.00%
Blast Furnance Slag Cement

Clinker Direct Sales 2.00%

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 Shamnur & Co.

Cement Pricing Growth Rate

3.00%
Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) 70.00 USD per Ton

3.50%
Sulphate Resistant Cement (SRC) 85.00 USD per Ton

3.00%
White Cement 100.00 USD per Ton

4.00%
Rapid Hardening Cement 100.00 USD per Ton

3.50%
Blast Furnance Slag Cement 50.00 USD per Ton

3.00%
Clinker Direct Sales 45.00 USD per Ton

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 Shamnur & Co.

5.6. Investor payback period

Net Present Value

Year 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Free
54,727,557 95,401,713 96,017,559 100,615,054 108,183,341
Cashflows

Present
Value of
41,596,666 55,113,894 42,160,722 33,579,390 27,442,438
Free
Cashflows

Initial
(154,768,282)
Investment

Net Present
45,124,826
Value

Internal Rate of Return

Year 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Free
54,727,557 95,401,713 96,017,559 100,615,054 108,183,341
Cashflows

Present
Value of Free 41,596,666 55,113,894 42,160,722 33,579,390 27,442,438
Cashflows

Initial
(154,768,282)
Investment

Internal
Rate of 44.81%
Return

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 Shamnur & Co.

Investor Payback Period

Year 0 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Free
Cashflows 54,727,557 95,401,713 96,017,559 100,615,054 108,183,341

Initial
Investment (154,768,282)

Cumulative
Cashflows (100,040,725) (4,639,012) 91,378,547 191,993,601 300,176,941

Investors
Payback 2.59 Yrs
Period

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 Shamnur & Co.

5.7. Sensitivity analysis

Optimistic Scenario

_ _ _ All amounts in USD _ _ _

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Revenue 23,413,500 56,307,213 82,906,542 85,450,290 88,072,478

Ordinary Portland
19,635,000 47,189,450 69,435,905 71,518,982 73,664,552
Cement (OPC)

Sulphate Resistant
841,500 2,032,223 3,004,786 3,109,954 3,218,802
Cement (SRC)

White Cement 1,155,000 2,775,850 4,084,465 4,206,999 4,333,209

Rapid Hardening
825,000 2,002,000 2,974,400 3,093,376 3,217,111
Cement

Blast Furnance Slag

660,000 1,593,900 2,356,695 2,439,179 2,524,551
Cement

Clinker Direct Sales 297,000 713,790 1,050,291 1,081,800 1,114,254

Cost of Sales (8,033,809) (18,881,388) (26,845,990) (26,985,599) (27,117,123)

Salaries 573,353 1,473,657 1,977,802 2,117,412 2,248,936

Raw Material 594,594 1,387,386 1,981,980 1,981,980 1,981,980

Limestone 516,549 1,205,281 1,721,830 1,721,830 1,721,830

Sandstone 21,780 50,820 72,600 72,600 72,600

Gypsum 13,794 32,186 45,980 45,980 45,980

Coal 16,335 38,115 54,450 54,450 54,450

Loam 26,136 60,984 87,120 87,120 87,120

Energy & Water 2,697,585 6,294,365 8,991,950 8,991,950 8,991,950

Coal 1,157,475 2,700,775 3,858,250 3,858,250 3,858,250

Electricity 1,504,800 3,511,200 5,016,000 5,016,000 5,016,000

Fuel & Lubricants 32,340 75,460 107,800 107,800 107,800

Water 2,970 6,930 9,900 9,900 9,900

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 Shamnur & Co.
Overhead Costs 4,168,277 9,725,980 13,894,257 13,894,257 13,894,257

Gross Profit 15,379,691 37,425,825 56,060,552 58,464,691 60,955,355

Operating
(589,163) (786,224) (875,148) (943,345) (993,977)
Expenditures

Salaries & Wages 442,619 629,351 712,784 775,299 820,049

Marketing 12,000 12,855 13,305 13,770 14,252

Communication
2,400 2,571 2,661 2,754 2,850
Expenses

Software licenses 4,344 4,653 4,816 4,985 5,159

Other Indirect
127,800 136,794 141,582 146,537 151,666
Expenses

Earnings before
interest, tax,
14,790,529 36,639,601 55,185,405 57,521,346 59,961,378
depreciation, and
amortization

Depreciation &
Amortization (1,747,154) (1,747,154) (1,747,154) (1,747,154) (1,747,154)
Expense

Earnings before
13,043,375 34,892,447 53,438,251 55,774,192 58,214,224
interest and tax

Interest Expense (2,691,626) (5,383,251) (5,383,251) (4,037,438) (2,691,626)

Profit before tax 10,351,749 29,509,195 48,054,999 51,736,753 55,522,598

Tax Expense (1,035,175) (2,950,920) (4,805,500) (5,173,675) (5,552,260)

Profit after tax 9,316,574 26,558,276 43,249,499 46,563,078 49,970,338

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 Shamnur & Co.

Pessimistic Scenario

_ _ _ All amounts in USD _ _ _

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Revenue 19,156,500 46,069,538 67,832,625 69,913,873 72,059,300

Ordinary Portland
16,065,000 38,609,550 56,811,195 58,515,531 60,270,997
Cement (OPC)

Sulphate Resistant
688,500 1,662,728 2,458,461 2,544,508 2,633,565
Cement (SRC)

White Cement 945,000 2,271,150 3,341,835 3,442,090 3,545,353

Rapid Hardening
675,000 1,638,000 2,433,600 2,530,944 2,632,182
Cement

Blast Furnance Slag

540,000 1,304,100 1,928,205 1,995,692 2,065,541
Cement

Clinker Direct Sales 243,000 584,010 859,329 885,109 911,662

Cost of Sales (6,677,362) (15,716,346) (22,324,501) (22,464,111) (22,595,635)

Salaries 573,353 1,473,657 1,977,802 2,117,412 2,248,936

Raw Material 486,486 1,135,134 1,621,620 1,621,620 1,621,620

Limestone 422,631 986,139 1,408,770 1,408,770 1,408,770

Sandstone 17,820 41,580 59,400 59,400 59,400

Gypsum 11,286 26,334 37,620 37,620 37,620

Coal 13,365 31,185 44,550 44,550 44,550

Loam 21,384 49,896 71,280 71,280 71,280

Energy & Water 2,207,115 5,149,935 7,357,050 7,357,050 7,357,050

Coal 947,025 2,209,725 3,156,750 3,156,750 3,156,750

Electricity 1,231,200 2,872,800 4,104,000 4,104,000 4,104,000

Fuel & Lubricants 26,460 61,740 88,200 88,200 88,200

Water 2,430 5,670 8,100 8,100 8,100

Overhead Costs 3,410,409 7,957,620 11,368,029 11,368,029 11,368,029

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 Shamnur & Co.
Gross Profit 12,479,138 30,353,192 45,508,124 47,449,763 49,463,666

Operating
(589,163) (786,224) (875,148) (943,345) (993,977)
Expenditures

Salaries & Wages 442,619 629,351 712,784 775,299 820,049

Marketing 12,000 12,855 13,305 13,770 14,252

Communication
2,400 2,571 2,661 2,754 2,850
Expenses

Software licenses 4,344 4,653 4,816 4,985 5,159

Other Indirect
127,800 136,794 141,582 146,537 151,666
Expenses

Earnings before
interest, tax,
11,889,975 29,566,968 44,632,976 46,506,418 48,469,689
depreciation, and
amortization

Depreciation &
Amortization (1,747,154) (1,747,154) (1,747,154) (1,747,154) (1,747,154)
Expense

Earnings before
10,142,821 27,819,814 42,885,822 44,759,264 46,722,535
interest and tax

Interest Expense (2,691,626) (5,383,251) (5,383,251) (4,037,438) (2,691,626)

Profit before tax 7,451,196 22,436,562 37,502,571 40,721,826 44,030,909

Tax Expense (745,120) (2,243,656) (3,750,257) (4,072,183) (4,403,091)

Profit after tax 6,706,076 20,192,906 33,752,314 36,649,643 39,627,818

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 Shamnur & Co.

5.8. Ratio analysis

Income Statement

Gross Margin 65.14% 65.89% 67.09% 67.87% 68.64%

EBITDA
62.07% 64.18% 65.80% 66.52% 67.26%
Margin

EBIT Margin 52.95% 60.39% 63.22% 64.02% 64.84%

Net Margin 35.01% 43.83% 49.76% 52.42% 54.99%

Times
Interest 3.77 Times 5.17 Times 7.97 Times 11.09 Times 17.36 Times
Earned

Return on
24.94% 42.89% 41.75% 31.19% 25.22%
Equity

Statement of Financial Position

Current
126.99 2.83 2.86 2.99 3.21
Ratio

Working
76,489,063.55 99,188,250.71 101,592,843.06 106,361,399.62 114,106,022.91
Capital

Debt-to
5.03 2.89 1.27 0.59 0.23
equity Ratio

Solvency
0.06 0.16 0.35 0.55 1.16
Ratio

Cash Ratio 124.36 2.72 2.70 2.83 3.04

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 Shamnur & Co.

6. Assumptions and Limiting Conditions

This report is subject to the following assumptions and limiting conditions:

I. Information, estimates, and opinions contained in this report are obtained

from sources considered to be reliable. However, we assume no liability for
such sources;

II. Shamnur & Co. and its representatives warranted to us that the information
they have provided is complete and accurate to the best of their
knowledge and that the financial statements’ information reflects the
company's results of operations and financial condition in accordance with
generally accepted accounting principles unless otherwise stated.
Information provided by the management has been accepted as correct
without further verification, and we express no opinion on that information;

III. We have not conducted a site review of the subject business premises, nor
have we audited or otherwise reviewed the business financial statements,
which have been provided by the business management;

IV. Possession of this report, or a copy thereof, does not carry with it the right of
publication of all or part of it, nor may it be used for any purpose by anyone
without the previous written consent of Shamnur & Co. and, in any event,
only with proper attribution;

V. We are not required to give testimony in court, or be in attendance during

any hearings or depositions, with reference to the company being
analyzed;

VI. Various estimates of value presented in this report apply to this study only
and may not be used out of the context presented herein. This study is valid
only for the purpose or purposes specified herein;

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 Shamnur & Co.

VII. The study contemplates facts and conditions existing as of the reporting
date. Events and conditions occurring after that date have not been
considered, and we have no obligation to update our report for such
events and conditions;

VIII. Information and calculations are based upon the marketing data and
other information as provided to us by the management of Shamnur & Co.;

IX. To the best of our knowledge, the projections drawn, and facts narrated
herein are true and correct;

X. The Projected Financial Statements for the next five years have been
prepared in consultation by Shamnur & Co.. Same projected financial
statements have been used for appraising the venture. Detailed underlying
assumptions used in the preparation of the projected financial statements
have not been validated and analyzed by us in detail since the said scope
has not been assigned to us;

XI. We have conducted the appraisal based on non-advocacy and have no

present or contemplated interest in the business appraised;

XII. Our compensation is not contingent on any action or event resulting from
the analysis, opinions, or conclusions in, or the use of, this Report;

XIII. The appraiser's analysis, opinions, and conclusions, as well as the

development of this report, have been in reasonable accordance and
conformity with the generally accepted management consultancy
standards.

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 Shamnur & Co.

September 14, 2022

Company Contact
Information
Address
Matkerimova 47, Osh c., 723500

Telephone
+996 777 15 30 15

Email
shamyrbek@mail.ru

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