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Contents vii

9-4b Measurement Error in an Explanatory Problems 361


Variable 310 Computer Exercises 363
9-5 Missing Data, Nonrandom Samples, and Outlying
Observations 313
chapter 11 Further Issues in Using OLS with
9-5a Missing Data 313
9-5b Nonrandom Samples 315 Time Series Data 366
9-5c Outliers and Influential Observations 317
11-1 Stationary and Weakly Dependent Time
9-6 Least Absolute Deviations Estimation 321 Series 367
Summary 323 11-1a Stationary and Nonstationary Time Series 367
Key Terms 324 11-1b Weakly Dependent Time Series 368
Problems 324 11-2 Asymptotic Properties of OLS 370
Computer Exercises 328 11-3 Using Highly Persistent Time Series in Regression
Analysis 376
Part 2 11-3a Highly Persistent Time Series 376
11-3b Transformations on Highly Persistent Time
Regression Analysis with Time Series 380
11-3c Deciding Whether a Time Series Is I(1) 381
Series Data 333
11-4 Dynamically Complete Models and the Absence of
Serial Correlation 382
chapter 10 Basic Regression Analysis with 11-5 The Homoskedasticity Assumption for Time
Time Series Data 334 Series Models 385
Summary 386
10-1 The Nature of Time Series Data 334
Key Terms 387
10-2 Examples of Time Series Regression
Models 335 Problems 387
10-2a Static Models 336 Computer Exercises 390
10-2b Finite Distributed Lag Models 336
10-2c A Convention about the Time Index 338 chapter 12 Serial Correlation and
10-3 Finite Sample Properties of OLS under Classical Heteroskedasticity in Time Series
Assumptions 339
Regressions 394
10-3a Unbiasedness of OLS 339
10-3b The Variances of the OLS Estimators and the 12-1 Properties of OLS with Serially Correlated
Gauss-Markov Theorem 342 Errors 395
10-3c Inference under the Classical Linear Model 12-1a Unbiasedness and Consistency 395
Assumptions 344 12-1b Efficiency and Inference 395
10-4 Functional Form, Dummy Variables, and Index 12-1c Goodness-of-Fit 396
Numbers 345 12-1d Serial Correlation in the Presence
10-5 Trends and Seasonality 351 of Lagged Dependent Variables 396
10-5a Characterizing Trending Time Series 351 12-2 Serial Correlation–Robust Inference
10-5b Using Trending Variables in Regression after OLS 398
Analysis 354 12-3 Testing for Serial Correlation 401
10-5c A Detrending Interpretation of Regressions 12-3a A t Test for AR(1) Serial Correlation with
with a Time Trend 356 Strictly Exogenous Regressors 402
10-5d Computing R-Squared When the Dependent 12-3b The Durbin-Watson Test under Classical
Variable Is Trending 357 Assumptions 403
10-5e Seasonality 358 12-3c Testing for AR(1) Serial Correlation without
Summary 360 Strictly Exogenous Regressors 404
Key Terms 361 12-3d Testing for Higher-Order Serial Correlation 406

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viii Contents

12-4 Correcting for Serial Correlation with Strictly Summary 451


Exogenous Regressors 407 Key Terms 452
12-4a Obtaining the Best Linear Unbiased
Problems 452
Estimator in the AR(1) Model 408
Computer Exercises 453
12-4b Feasible GLS Estimation with AR(1)
Errors 409
12-4c Comparing OLS and FGLS 411 chapter 14 Advanced Panel
12-4d Correcting for Higher-Order Serial Data Methods 462
Correlation 413
12-4e What if the Serial Correlation Model Is 14-1 Fixed Effects Estimation 463
Wrong? 413 14-1a The Dummy Variable Regression 466
12-5 Differencing and Serial Correlation 414 14-1b Fixed Effects or First Differencing? 467
14-1c Fixed Effects with Unbalanced Panels 468
12-6 Heteroskedasticity in Time Series
Regressions 415 14-2 Random Effects Models 469
12-6a Heteroskedasticity-Robust Statistics 416 14-2a Random Effects or Pooled OLS? 473
12-6b Testing for Heteroskedasticity 416 14-2b Random Effects or Fixed Effects? 473
12-6c Autoregressive Conditional 14-3 The Correlated Random Effects Approach 474
Heteroskedasticity 417 14-3a Unbalanced Panels 476
12-6d Heteroskedasticity and Serial Correlation in 14-4 General Policy Analysis with Panel Data 477
Regression Models 418 14-4a Advanced Considerations with Policy
Summary 419 Analysis 478
Key Terms 420 14-5 Applying Panel Data Methods to Other Data
Problems 420 Structures 480
Computer Exercises 421 Summary 483
Key Terms 484
Part 3 Problems 484
Computer Exercises 486
Advanced Topics 425
chapter 15 Instrumental Variables Estimation
chapter 13 Pooling Cross Sections across and Two-Stage Least Squares 495
Time: Simple Panel Data Methods 426
15-1 Motivation: Omitted Variables in a Simple
Regression Model 496
13-1 Pooling Independent Cross Sections across
Time 427 15-1a Statistical Inference with the IV
Estimator 500
13-1a The Chow Test for Structural Change across
Time 431 15-1b Properties of IV with a Poor Instrumental
Variable 503
13-2 Policy Analysis with Pooled Cross Sections 431
15-1c Computing R-Squared after IV Estimation 505
13-2a Adding an Additional Control Group 436 15-2 IV Estimation of the Multiple Regression
13-2b A General Framework for Policy Analysis Model 505
with Pooled Cross Sections 437
15-3 Two-Stage Least Squares 509
13-3 Two-Period Panel Data Analysis 439 15-3a A Single Endogenous Explanatory
13-3a Organizing Panel Data 444 Variable 509
13-4 Policy Analysis with Two-Period Panel 15-3b Multicollinearity and 2SLS 511
Data 444 15-3c Detecting Weak Instruments 512
13-5 Differencing with More Than Two Time 15-3d Multiple Endogenous Explanatory
Periods 447 Variables 513
13-5a Potential Pitfalls in First Differencing Panel 15-3e Testing Multiple Hypotheses after 2SLS
Data 451 Estimation 513

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Contents ix

15-4 IV Solutions to Errors-in-Variables Problems 514 17-2 The Tobit Model for Corner Solution
15-5 Testing for Endogeneity and Testing Overidentifying Responses 571
Restrictions 515 17-2a Interpreting the Tobit Estimates 572
15-5a Testing for Endogeneity 515 17-2b Specification Issues in Tobit Models 578
15-5b Testing Overidentification Restrictions 516 17-3 The Poisson Regression Model 578
15-6 2SLS with Heteroskedasticity 518 17-4 Censored and Truncated Regression Models 582
15-7 Applying 2SLS to Time Series Equations 519 17-4a Censored Regression Models 583
15-8 Applying 2SLS to Pooled Cross Sections 17-4b Truncated Regression Models 586
and Panel Data 521 17-5 Sample Selection Corrections 588
Summary 522 17-5a When Is OLS on the Selected Sample
Consistent? 588
Key Terms 523
17-5b Incidental Truncation 589
Problems 523
Summary 593
Computer Exercises 526
Key Terms 593
Problems 594
Simultaneous Equations
chapter 16
Computer Exercises 596
Models 534
16-1 The Nature of Simultaneous Equations chapter 18 Advanced Time Series Topics 604
Models 535
16-2 Simultaneity Bias in OLS 538 18-1 Infinite Distributed Lag Models 605
16-3 Identifying and Estimating a Structural 18-1a The Geometric (or Koyck) Distributed Lag
Equation 539 Model 607
16-3a Identification in a Two-Equation System 540 18-1b Rational Distributed Lag Models 608
16-3b Estimation by 2SLS 543 18-2 Testing for Unit Roots 610
16-4 Systems with More Than Two Equations 545 18-3 Spurious Regression 614
16-4a Identification in Systems with Three or More 18-4 Cointegration and Error Correction Models 616
Equations 545 18-4a Cointegration 616
16-4b Estimation 546 18-4b Error Correction Models 620
16-5 Simultaneous Equations Models with Time 18-5 Forecasting 622
Series 546
18-5a Types of Regression Models Used for
16-6 Simultaneous Equations Models with Panel Forecasting 623
Data 549 18-5b One-Step-Ahead Forecasting 624
Summary 551 18-5c Comparing One-Step-Ahead Forecasts 627
Key Terms 552 18-5d Multiple-Step-Ahead Forecasts 628
Problems 552 18-5e Forecasting Trending, Seasonal, and Integrated
Computer Exercises 555 Processes 631
Summary 635
chapter 17 Limited Dependent Variable Models Key Terms 636
and Sample Selection Corrections 559 Problems 636
Computer Exercises 638
17-1 Logit and Probit Models for Binary
Response 560
17-1a Specifying Logit and Probit Models 560 chapter 19Carrying Out an Empirical
17-1b Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Logit and Project 642
Probit Models 563
17-1c Testing Multiple Hypotheses 564 19-1 Posing a Question 642
17-1d Interpreting the Logit and Probit Estimates 565 19-2 Literature Review 644

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x Contents

19-3 Data Collection 645 B-2 Joint Distributions, Conditional Distributions,


19-3a Deciding on the Appropriate Data Set 645 and Independence 688
19-3b Entering and Storing Your Data 646 B-2a Joint Distributions and Independence 688
19-3c Inspecting, Cleaning, and Summarizing Your B-2b Conditional Distributions 690
Data 647 B-3 Features of Probability Distributions 691
19-4 Econometric Analysis 648 B-3a A Measure of Central Tendency: The Expected
19-5 Writing an Empirical Paper 651 Value 691
19-5a Introduction 651 B-3b Properties of Expected Values 692
19-5b Conceptual (or Theoretical) B-3c Another Measure of Central Tendency: The
Framework 652 Median 694
19-5c Econometric Models and Estimation B-3d Measures of Variability: Variance and Standard
Methods 652 Deviation 695
19-5d The Data 654 B-3e Variance 695
19-5e Results 655 B-3f Standard Deviation 696
19.5f Conclusions 656 B-3g Standardizing a Random Variable 696
19-5g Style Hints 656 B-3h Skewness and Kurtosis 697
Summary 658 B-4 Features of Joint and Conditional
Distributions 697
Key Terms 658
B-4a Measures of Association: Covariance and
Sample Empirical Projects 658 Correlation 697
List of Journals 664 B-4b Covariance 697
Data Sources 665 B-4c Correlation Coefficient 698
B-4d Variance of Sums of Random Variables 699
Math Refresher A  Basic Mathematical B-4e Conditional Expectation 700
Tools 666 B-4f Properties of Conditional Expectation 702
B-4g Conditional Variance 704
A-1 The Summation Operator and Descriptive B-5 The Normal and Related Distributions 704
Statistics 666 B-5a The Normal Distribution 704
A-2 Properties of Linear Functions 668 B-5b The Standard Normal Distribution 705
A-3 Proportions and Percentages 671 B-5c Additional Properties of the Normal
A-4 Some Special Functions and Their Distribution 707
Properties 672 B-5d The Chi-Square Distribution 708
A-4a Quadratic Functions 672 B-5e The t Distribution 708
A-4b The Natural Logarithm 674 B-5f The F Distribution 709
A-4c The Exponential Function 677 Summary 711
A-5 Differential Calculus 678 Key Terms 711
Summary 680 Problems 711
Key Terms 681
Problems 681 Math Refresher C  Fundamentals of
Mathematical Statistics 714
Math Refresher B Fundamentals of
Probability 684 C-1 Populations, Parameters, and Random
Sampling 714
B-1 Random Variables and Their Probability C-1a Sampling 714
Distributions 684 C-2 Finite Sample Properties of Estimators 715
B-1a Discrete Random Variables 685 C-2a Estimators and Estimates 715
B-1b Continuous Random Variables 687 C-2b Unbiasedness 716

58860_fm_hr_i-xxii.indd 10 10/23/18 6:11 PM


Contents xi

C-2c The Sampling Variance of Estimators 718 D-2e Partitioned Matrix Multiplication 752
C-2d Efficiency 719 D-2f Trace 753
C-3 Asymptotic or Large Sample Properties of D-2g Inverse 753
Estimators 721 D-3 Linear Independence and Rank of a
C-3a Consistency 721 Matrix 754
C-3b Asymptotic Normality 723 D-4 Quadratic Forms and Positive Definite
C-4 General Approaches to Parameter Estimation 724 Matrices 754
C-4a Method of Moments 725 D-5 Idempotent Matrices 755
C-4b Maximum Likelihood 725 D-6 Differentiation of Linear and Quadratic
C-4c Least Squares 726 Forms 755
C-5 Interval Estimation and Confidence Intervals 727 D-7 Moments and Distributions of Random
C-5a The Nature of Interval Estimation 727 Vectors 756
C-5b Confidence Intervals for the Mean from a Normally D-7a Expected Value 756
Distributed Population 729 D-7b Variance-Covariance Matrix 756
C-5c A Simple Rule of Thumb for a 95% Confidence D-7c Multivariate Normal Distribution 756
Interval 731 D-7d Chi-Square Distribution 757
C-5d Asymptotic Confidence Intervals for Nonnormal D-7e t Distribution 757
Populations 732 D-7f F Distribution 757
C-6 Hypothesis Testing 733 Summary 757
C-6a Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing 733
Key Terms 757
C-6b Testing Hypotheses about the Mean in a Normal
Problems 758
Population 735
C-6c Asymptotic Tests for Nonnormal
Populations 738
Advanced Treatment E  The Linear Regression
C-6d Computing and Using p-Values 738 Model in Matrix Form 760
C-6e The Relationship between Confidence Intervals
and Hypothesis Testing 741 E-1 The Model and Ordinary Least
Squares Estimation 760
C-6f Practical versus Statistical Significance 742
E-1a The Frisch-Waugh Theorem 762
C-7 Remarks on Notation 743
E-2 Finite Sample Properties of OLS 763
Summary 743
E-3 Statistical Inference 767
Key Terms 744
E-4 Some Asymptotic Analysis 769
Problems 744 E-4a Wald Statistics for Testing Multiple
Hypotheses 771
Advanced Treatment D  Summary of Matrix Summary 771
Algebra 749 Key Terms 771
Problems 772
D-1 Basic Definitions 749
Answers to Going Further Questions 775
D-2 Matrix Operations 750
D-2a Matrix Addition 750 Statistical Tables 784
D-2b Scalar Multiplication 750 References 791
D-2c Matrix Multiplication 751 Glossary 797
D-2d Transpose 752 Index 812

58860_fm_hr_i-xxii.indd 11 10/23/18 6:11 PM


Preface

In ALL content, please indent the first paragraph as well, like the following ones. My motivation
for writing the first edition of Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach was that I saw a fairly
wide gap between how econometrics is taught to undergraduates and how empirical researchers think
about and apply econometric methods. I became convinced that teaching introductory econometrics
from the perspective of professional users of econometrics would actually simplify the presentation,
in addition to making the subject much more interesting.
Based on the positive reactions to the several earlier editions, it appears that my hunch was correct.
Many instructors, having a variety of backgrounds and interests and teaching students with different
levels of preparation, have embraced the modern approach to econometrics espoused in this text. The
emphasis in this edition is still on applying econometrics to real-world problems. Each econometric
method is motivated by a particular issue facing researchers analyzing nonexperimental data. The focus
in the main text is on understanding and interpreting the assumptions in light of actual empirical appli-
cations: the mathematics required is no more than college algebra and basic probability and statistics.

Designed for Today’s Econometrics Course


The seventh edition preserves the overall organization of the sixth. The most noticeable feature
that distinguishes this text from most others is the separation of topics by the kind of data being ana-
lyzed. This is a clear departure from the traditional approach, which presents a linear model, lists all
assumptions that may be needed at some future point in the analysis, and then proves or asserts results
without clearly connecting them to the assumptions. My approach is first to treat, in Part 1, mul-
tiple regression analysis with cross-sectional data, under the assumption of random sampling. This
setting is natural to students because they are familiar with random sampling from a population in
their introductory statistics courses. Importantly, it allows us to distinguish assumptions made about
the underlying population regression model—assumptions that can be given economic or behavioral
­content—from assumptions about how the data were sampled. Discussions about the consequences of
nonrandom sampling can be treated in an intuitive fashion after the students have a good grasp of the
multiple regression model estimated using random samples.
An important feature of a modern approach is that the explanatory variables—along with the
dependent variable—are treated as outcomes of random variables. For the social sciences, allow-
ing random explanatory variables is much more realistic than the traditional assumption of nonran-
dom explanatory variables. As a nontrivial benefit, the population model/random sampling approach
reduces the number of assumptions that students must absorb and understand. Ironically, the classical
approach to regression analysis, which treats the explanatory variables as fixed in repeated samples
and is still pervasive in introductory texts, literally applies to data collected in an experimental setting.
In addition, the contortions required to state and explain assumptions can be confusing to students.
My focus on the population model emphasizes that the fundamental assumptions underlying
regression analysis, such as the zero mean assumption on the unobservable error term, are properly

xii

58860_fm_hr_i-xxii.indd 12 10/23/18 6:11 PM


Preface xiii

stated conditional on the explanatory variables. This leads to a clear understanding of the kinds of
problems, such as heteroskedasticity (nonconstant variance), that can invalidate standard inference
procedures. By focusing on the population, I am also able to dispel several misconceptions that arise
in econometrics texts at all levels. For example, I explain why the usual R-squared is still valid as a
goodness-of-fit measure in the presence of heteroskedasticity (Chapter 8) or serially correlated errors
(Chapter 12); I provide a simple demonstration that tests for functional form should not be viewed
as general tests of omitted variables (Chapter 9); and I explain why one should always include in a
regression model extra control variables that are uncorrelated with the explanatory variable of inter-
est, which is often a key policy variable (Chapter 6).
Because the assumptions for cross-sectional analysis are relatively straightforward yet realis-
tic, students can get involved early with serious cross-sectional applications without having to worry
about the thorny issues of trends, seasonality, serial correlation, high persistence, and spurious regres-
sion that are ubiquitous in time series regression models. Initially, I figured that my treatment of
regression with cross-sectional data followed by regression with time series data would find favor
with instructors whose own research interests are in applied microeconomics, and that appears to be
the case. It has been gratifying that adopters of the text with an applied time series bent have been
equally enthusiastic about the structure of the text. By postponing the econometric analysis of time
series data, I am able to put proper focus on the potential pitfalls in analyzing time series data that do
not arise with cross-sectional data. In effect, time series econometrics finally gets the serious treat-
ment it deserves in an introductory text.
As in the earlier editions, I have consciously chosen topics that are important for reading journal
articles and for conducting basic empirical research. Within each topic, I have deliberately omitted
many tests and estimation procedures that, while traditionally included in textbooks, have not with-
stood the empirical test of time. Likewise, I have emphasized more recent topics that have clearly
demonstrated their usefulness, such as obtaining test statistics that are robust to heteroskedasticity
(or serial correlation) of unknown form, using multiple years of data for policy analysis, or solving
the omitted variable problem by instrumental variables methods. I appear to have made fairly good
choices, as I have received only a handful of suggestions for adding or deleting material.
I take a systematic approach throughout the text, by which I mean that each topic is presented by
building on the previous material in a logical fashion, and assumptions are introduced only as they
are needed to obtain a conclusion. For example, empirical researchers who use econometrics in their
research understand that not all of the Gauss-Markov assumptions are needed to show that the ordi-
nary least squares (OLS) estimators are unbiased. Yet the vast majority of econometrics texts intro-
duce a complete set of assumptions (many of which are redundant or in some cases even logically
conflicting) before proving the unbiasedness of OLS. Similarly, the normality assumption is often
included among the assumptions that are needed for the Gauss-Markov Theorem, even though it is
fairly well known that normality plays no role in showing that the OLS estimators are the best linear
unbiased estimators.
My systematic approach is illustrated by the order of assumptions that I use for multiple regres-
sion in Part 1. This structure results in a natural progression for briefly summarizing the role of each
assumption:
MLR.1: Introduce the population model and interpret the population parameters (which we hope
to estimate).
MLR.2: Introduce random sampling from the population and describe the data that we use to
estimate the population parameters.
MLR.3: Add the assumption on the explanatory variables that allows us to compute the estimates
from our sample; this is the so-called no perfect collinearity assumption.
MLR.4: Assume that, in the population, the mean of the unobservable error does not depend on the
values of the explanatory variables; this is the “mean independence” assumption combined with a
zero population mean for the error, and it is the key assumption that delivers unbiasedness of OLS.

58860_fm_hr_i-xxii.indd 13 10/23/18 6:11 PM


xiv Preface

After introducing Assumptions MLR.1 to MLR.3, one can discuss the algebraic properties of ordi-
nary least squares—that is, the properties of OLS for a particular set of data. By adding Assumption
MLR.4, we can show that OLS is unbiased (and consistent). Assumption MLR.5 (homoskedastic-
ity) is added for the Gauss-Markov Theorem and for the usual OLS variance formulas to be valid.
Assumption MLR.6 (normality), which is not introduced until Chapter 4, is added to round out the
classical linear model assumptions. The six assumptions are used to obtain exact statistical inference
and to conclude that the OLS estimators have the smallest variances among all unbiased estimators.
I use parallel approaches when I turn to the study of large-sample properties and when I treat
regression for time series data in Part 2. The careful presentation and discussion of assumptions
makes it relatively easy to transition to Part 3, which covers advanced topics that include using pooled
cross-sectional data, exploiting panel data structures, and applying instrumental variables methods.
Generally, I have strived to provide a unified view of econometrics, where all estimators and test sta-
tistics are obtained using just a few intuitively reasonable principles of estimation and testing (which,
of course, also have rigorous justification). For example, regression-based tests for heteroskedasticity
and serial correlation are easy for students to grasp because they already have a solid understanding
of regression. This is in contrast to treatments that give a set of disjointed recipes for outdated econo-
metric testing procedures.
Throughout the text, I emphasize ceteris paribus relationships, which is why, after one chapter on
the simple regression model, I move to multiple regression analysis. The multiple regression setting
motivates students to think about serious applications early. I also give prominence to policy analysis
with all kinds of data structures. Practical topics, such as using proxy variables to obtain ceteris pari-
bus effects and interpreting partial effects in models with interaction terms, are covered in a simple
fashion.

Designed at Undergraduates, Applicable


to Master’s Students
The text is designed for undergraduate economics majors who have taken college algebra and
one-semester of introductory probability and statistics. (Math Refresher A, B, and C contain the
requisite background material.) A one-semester or one-quarter econometrics course would not be
expected to cover all, or even any, of the more advanced material in Part 3. A typical introduc-
tory course includes Chapters 1 through 8, which cover the basics of simple and multiple regres-
sion for cross-sectional data. Provided the emphasis is on intuition and interpreting the empirical
examples, the material from the first eight chapters should be accessible to undergraduates in most
economics departments. Most instructors will also want to cover at least parts of the c­ hapters
on regression analysis with time series data, Chapters 10 and 12, in varying degrees of depth.
In the one-semester course that I teach at Michigan State, I cover Chapter 10 fairly carefully,
give an overview of the material in Chapter 11, and cover the material on serial correlation in
Chapter 12. I find that this basic one-semester course puts students on a solid footing to write
empirical papers, such as a term paper, a senior seminar paper, or a senior thesis. Chapter 9
­c ontains more specialized topics that arise in analyzing cross-sectional data, including data
­problems such as outliers and nonrandom sampling; for a one-semester course, it can be skipped
without loss of continuity.
The structure of the text makes it ideal for a course with a cross-sectional or policy analysis
focus: the time series chapters can be skipped in lieu of topics from Chapters 9 or 15. The new mate-
rial on potential outcomes added to the first nine chapters should help the instructor craft a course
that provides an introduction to modern policy analysis. Chapter 13 is advanced only in the sense
that it treats two new data structures: independently pooled cross sections and two-period panel data
analysis. Such data structures are especially useful for policy analysis, and the chapter provides

58860_fm_hr_i-xxii.indd 14 10/23/18 6:11 PM


Preface xv

several examples. Students with a good grasp of Chapters 1 through 8 will have little difficulty with
Chapter 13. Chapter 14 covers more advanced panel data methods and would probably be covered
only in a second course. A good way to end a course on cross-sectional methods is to cover the rudi-
ments of instrumental variables estimation in Chapter 15.
I have used selected material in Part 3, including Chapters 13 and 17, in a senior seminar geared
to producing a serious research paper. Along with the basic one-semester course, students who have
been exposed to basic panel data analysis, instrumental variables estimation, and limited dependent
variable models are in a position to read large segments of the applied social sciences literature.
Chapter 17 provides an introduction to the most common limited dependent variable models.
The text is also well suited for an introductory master’s level course, where the emphasis is on
applications rather than on derivations using matrix algebra. Several instructors have used the text to
teach policy analysis at the master’s level. For instructors wanting to present the material in matrix
form, Appendices D and E are self-contained treatments of the matrix algebra and the multiple regres-
sion model in matrix form.
At Michigan State, PhD students in many fields that require data analysis—including accounting,
agricultural economics, development economics, economics of education, finance, international eco-
nomics, labor economics, macroeconomics, political science, and public finance—have found the text
to be a useful bridge between the empirical work that they read and the more theoretical econometrics
they learn at the PhD level.

Suggestions for Designing Your Course Beyond the Basic


I have already commented on the contents of most of the chapters as well as possible outlines for
courses. Here I provide more specific comments about material in chapters that might be covered or
skipped:
Chapter 9 has some interesting examples (such as a wage regression that includes IQ score as
an explanatory variable). The rubric of proxy variables does not have to be formally introduced to
present these kinds of examples, and I typically do so when finishing up cross-sectional analysis. In
Chapter 12, for a one-semester course, I skip the material on serial correlation robust inference for
ordinary least squares as well as dynamic models of heteroskedasticity.
Even in a second course I tend to spend only a little time on Chapter 16, which covers simultane-
ous equations analysis. I have found that instructors differ widely in their opinions on the importance
of teaching simultaneous equations models to undergraduates. Some think this material is funda-
mental; others think it is rarely applicable. My own view is that simultaneous equations models are
overused (see Chapter 16 for a discussion). If one reads applications carefully, omitted variables and
measurement error are much more likely to be the reason one adopts instrumental variables estimation,
and this is why I use omitted variables to motivate instrumental variables estimation in Chapter 15.
Still, simultaneous equations models are indispensable for estimating demand and supply functions,
and they apply in some other important cases as well.
Chapter 17 is the only chapter that considers models inherently nonlinear in their parameters,
and this puts an extra burden on the student. The first material one should cover in this chapter is on
probit and logit models for binary response. My presentation of Tobit models and censored regression
still appears to be novel in introductory texts. I explicitly recognize that the Tobit model is applied to
corner solution outcomes on random samples, while censored regression is applied when the data col-
lection process censors the dependent variable at essentially arbitrary thresholds.
Chapter 18 covers some recent important topics from time series econometrics, including test-
ing for unit roots and cointegration. I cover this material only in a second-semester course at either
the undergraduate or master’s level. A fairly detailed introduction to forecasting is also included in
Chapter 18.

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xvi Preface

Chapter 19, which would be added to the syllabus for a course that requires a term paper, is much
more extensive than similar chapters in other texts. It summarizes some of the methods appropriate
for various kinds of problems and data structures, points out potential pitfalls, explains in some detail
how to write a term paper in empirical economics, and includes suggestions for possible projects.

What’s Changed?
I have added new exercises to many chapters, including to the Math Refresher and Advanced
Treatment appendices. Some of the new computer exercises use new data sets, including a data set
on performance of men’s college basketball teams. I have also added more challenging problems that
require derivations.
There are several notable changes to the text. An important organizational change, which should
facilitate a wider variety of teaching tastes, is that the notion of binary, or dummy, explanatory vari-
ables is introduced in Chapter 2. There, it is shown that ordinary least squares estimation leads to a
staple in basic statistics: the difference in means between two subgroups in a population. By introduc-
ing qualitative factors into regression early on, the instructor is able to use a wider variety of empirical
examples from the very beginning.
The early discussion of binary explanatory variables allows for a formal introduction of potential,
or counterfactual, outcomes, which is indispensable in the modern literature on estimating causal
effects. The counterfactual approach to studying causality appears in previous editions, but Chapters 2,
3, 4, and 7 now explicitly include new sections on the modern approach to causal inference. Because
basic policy analysis involves the binary decision to participate in a program or not, a leading example
of using dummy independent variables in simple and multiple regression is to evaluate policy inter-
ventions. At the same time, the new material is incorporated into the text so that instructors not wish-
ing to cover the potential outcomes framework may easily skip the material. Several end-of-chapter
problems concern extensions of the basic potential outcomes framework, which should be valuable
for instructors wishing to cover that material.
Chapter 3 includes a new section on different ways that one can apply multiple regression,
including problems of pure prediction, testing efficient markets, and culminating with a discussion of
estimating treatment or causal effects. I think this section provides a nice way to organize students’
thinking about the scope of multiple regression after they have seen the mechanics of ordinary least
squares (OS) and several examples. As with other new material that touches on causal effects, this
material can be skipped without loss of continuity. A new section in Chapter 7 continues the discussion
of potential outcomes, allowing for nonconstant treatment effects. The material is a nice illustration
of estimating different regression functions for two subgroups from a population. New problems
in this chapter that allow the student more experience in using full regression adjustment to estimate
causal effects.
One notable change to Chapter 9 is a more detailed discussion of using missing data indicators
when data are missing on one or more of the explanatory variables. The assumptions underlying the
method are discussed in more detail than in the previous edition.
Chapter 12 has been reorganized to reflect a more modern treatment of the problem of serial
correlation in the errors of time series regression models. The new structure first covers adjusting the
OLS standard errors to allow general forms of serial correlation. Thus, the chapter outline now paral-
lels that in Chapter 8, with the emphasis in both cases on OLS estimation but making inference robust
to violation of standard assumptions. Correcting for serial correlation using generalized least squares
now comes after OLS and the treatment of testing for serial correlation.
The advanced chapters also include several improvements. Chapter 13 now discusses, at an acces-
sible level, extensions of the standard difference-in-differences setup, allowing for multiple control

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Preface xvii

groups, multiple time periods, and even group-specific trends. In addition, the chapter includes a
more detailed discussion of computing standard errors robust to serial correlation when using first-
differencing estimation with panel data.
Chapter 14 now provides more detailed discussions of several important issues in estimating
panel data models by fixed effects, random effects, and correlated random effects (CRE). The CRE
approach with missing data is discussed in more detail, as is how one accounts for general functional
forms, such as squares and interactions, which are covered in the cross-sectional setting in Chapter 6.
An expanded section on general policy analysis with panel data should be useful for courses with an
emphasis on program interventions and policy evaluation.
Chapter 16, which still covers simultaneous equations models, now provides an explicit link
between the potential outcomes framework and specification of simultaneous equations models.
Chapter 17 now includes a discussion of using regression adjustment for estimating causal (treat-
ment) effects when the outcome variable has special features, such as when the outcome itself is a
binary variable. Then, as the reader is asked to explore in a new problem, logit and probit models can
be used to obtain more reliable estimates of average treatment effects by estimating separate models
for each treatment group.
Chapter 18 now provides more details about how one can compute a proper standard error for
a forecast (as opposed to a prediction) interval. This should help the advanced reader understand in
more detail the nature of the uncertainty in the forecast.

About MindTap™
MindTap is an outcome-driven application that propels students from memorization to mastery.
It’s the only platform that gives you complete ownership of your course. With it, you can challenge
every student, build their confidence, and empower them to be unstoppable.
Access Everything You Need In One Place. Cut down on prep with preloaded, organized course
materials in MindTap. Teach more efficiently with interactive multimedia, assignments, quizzes and
more. And give your students the power to read, listen and study on their phones, so they can learn on
their terms.
Empower Your Students To Reach Their Potential. Twelve distinct metrics give you actionable
insights into student engagement. Identify topics troubling your entire class and instantly communi-
cate with struggling students. And students can track their scores to stay motivated toward their goals.
Together, you can accelerate progress.
Your Course. Your Content. Only MindTap gives you complete control over your course. You
have the flexibility to reorder textbook chapters, add your own notes and embed a variety of content
including OER. Personalize course content to your students’ needs. They can even read your notes,
add their own and highlight key text to aid their progress.
A Dedicated Team, Whenever You Need Them. MindTap isn’t just a tool; it’s backed by a per-
sonalized team eager to support you. Get help setting up your course and tailoring it to your specific
objectives. You’ll be ready to make an impact from day one. And, we’ll be right here to help you and
your students throughout the semester—and beyond.

Design Features
In addition to the didactic material in the chapter, I have included two features to help students
better understand and apply what they are learning. Each chapter contains many numbered examples.
Several of these are case studies drawn from recently published papers. I have used my judgment to
simplify the analysis, hopefully without sacrificing the main point. The “Going Further Questions” in

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xviii Preface

the chapter provide students an opportunity to “go further” in learning the material through analysis
or application. Students will find immediate feedback for these questions in the end of the text.
The end-of-chapter problems and computer exercises are heavily oriented toward empirical work,
rather than complicated derivations. The students are asked to reason carefully based on what they
have learned. The computer exercises often expand on the in-text examples. Several exercises use data
sets from published works or similar data sets that are motivated by published research in economics
and other fields.
A pioneering feature of this introductory econometrics text is the extensive glossary. The short
definitions and descriptions are a helpful refresher for students studying for exams or reading empiri-
cal research that uses econometric methods. I have added and updated several entries for the seventh
edition.

Instructional Tools
Cengage offers various supplements for instructors and students who use this book. I would like
to thank the Subject Matter Expert team who worked on these supplements and made teaching and
learning easy.

C. Patrick Scott, Ph.D., Louisiana Tech University (R Videos and Computer exercise reviewer)
Hisham Foad (Aplia Home work reviewer and Glossary)
Kenneth H. Brown, Missouri State University (R Videos creator)
Scott Kostyshak, University of Florida (R Videos reviewer)
Ujwal Kharel (Test Bank and Adaptive Test Prep)

Data Sets—Available in Six Formats


With more than 100 data sets in six different formats, including Stata®, R, EViews®, Minitab®,
Microsoft® Excel, and Text, the instructor has many options for problem sets, examples, and term
projects. Because most of the data sets come from actual research, some are very large. Except for
partial lists of data sets to illustrate the various data structures, the data sets are not reported in the
text. This book is geared to a course where computer work plays an integral role.

Updated Data Sets Handbook


An extensive data description manual is also available online. This manual contains a list of data
sources along with suggestions for ways to use the data sets that are not described in the text. This
unique handbook, created by author Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, lists the source of all data sets for quick
reference and how each might be used. Because the data book contains page numbers, it is easy to
see how the author used the data in the text. Students may want to view the descriptions of each data
set and it can help guide instructors in generating new homework exercises, exam problems, or term
projects. The author also provides suggestions on improving the data sets in this detailed resource that
is available on the book’s companion website at http://login.cengage.com and students can access it
free at www.cengage.com.

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Preface xix

Instructor’s Manual with Solutions


REVISED INSTRUCTOR’S MANUAL WITH SOLUTIONS SAVES TIME IN PREPARATION
AND GRADING. The online Instructor’s Manual with solutions contains answers to all exercises in
this edition. Teaching tips provide suggestions for presenting each chapter’s material. The Instructor’s
Manual also contains sources for each of the data files with suggestions for using the data to develop
problem sets, exams, and term papers. The Instructor’s Manual is password-protected and available
for download on the book’s companion website.

Test Bank
Cengage Testing, powered by Cognero® is a flexible, online system that allows you to import,
edit, and manipulate content from the text’s test bank or elsewhere, including your own favorite test
questions; create multiple test versions in an instant; and deliver tests from your LMS, your class-
room, or wherever you want.

PowerPoint Slides
UPDATED POWERPOINT ® SLIDES BRING LECTURES TO LIFE WHILE VISUALLY
CLARIFYING CONCEPTS. Exceptional PowerPoint® presentation slides, created specifically for
this edition, help you create engaging, memorable lectures. The slides are particularly useful for clari-
fying advanced topics in Part 3. You can modify or customize the slides for your specific course.
PowerPoint® slides are available for convenient download on the instructor-only, password-protected
section of the book’s companion website.

Scientific Word Slides


UPDATED SCIENTIFIC WORD® SLIDES REINFORCE TEXT CONCEPTS AND LECTURE
PRESENTATIONS. Created by the text author, this edition’s Scientific Word ® slides reinforce the
book’s presentation slides while highlighting the benefits of Scientific Word®, the application cre-
ated by MacKichan software, Inc. for specifically composing mathematical, scientific and techni-
cal documents using LaTeX typesetting. These slides are based on the author’s actual lectures and
are available for convenient download on the password-protected section of the book’s companion
website.

Student Supplements
Student Solutions Manual
Now your student’s can maximize their study time and further their course success with this dynamic
online resource. This helpful Solutions Manual includes detailed steps and solutions to odd-numbered
problems as well as computer exercises in the text. This supplement is available as a free resource at
www.cengagebrain.com.

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xx Preface

Acknowledgments
I would like to thank those who reviewed and provided helpful comments for this and previous
­editions of the text:
Erica Johnson, Gonzaga University Steven Cuellar, Sonoma State
University
Mary Ellen Benedict, Bowling Green
State University Yanan Di, Wagner College
Chirok Han, Korea University John Fitzgerald, Bowdoin College
Yan Li, Temple University Philip N. Jefferson, Swarthmore
College
Melissa Tartari, Yale University
Yongsheng Wang, Washington and
Michael Allgrunn, University of Jefferson College
South Dakota
Sheng-Kai Chang, National Taiwan
Gregory Colman, Pace University University
Yoo-Mi Chin, Missouri University of Damayanti Ghosh, Binghamton
Science and Technology University
Arsen Melkumian, Western Illinois Susan Averett, Lafayette College
University
Kevin J. Mumford, Purdue
Kevin J. Murphy, Oakland University
University
Kristine Grimsrud, University of New
Nicolai V. Kuminoff, Arizona State
Mexico
University
Will Melick, Kenyon College
Subarna K. Samanta, The College of
Philip H. Brown, Colby College New Jersey
Argun Saatcioglu, University of Jing Li, South Dakota State
Kansas University
Ken Brown, University of Northern Gary Wagner, University of
Iowa Arkansas–Little Rock
Michael R. Jonas, University of San Kelly Cobourn, Boise State University
Francisco
Timothy Dittmer, Central
Melissa Yeoh, Berry College Washington University
Nikolaos Papanikolaou, SUNY at Daniel Fischmar, Westminster
New Paltz College
Konstantin Golyaev, University of Subha Mani, Fordham University
Minnesota
John Maluccio, Middlebury College
Soren Hauge, Ripon College
James Warner, College of Wooster
Kevin Williams, University of
Christopher Magee, Bucknell
Minnesota
University
Hailong Qian, Saint Louis
University Andrew Ewing, Eckerd College

Rod Hissong, University of Texas at Debra Israel, Indiana State


Arlington University

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Preface xxi

Jay Goodliffe, Brigham Young Heather O’Neill, Ursinus College


University
Leslie Papke, Michigan State
Stanley R. Thompson, The Ohio University
State University
Timothy Vogelsang, Michigan State
Michael Robinson, Mount Holyoke University
College
Stephen Woodbury, Michigan State
Ivan Jeliazkov, University of University
California, Irvine
Some of the changes I discussed earlier were driven by comments I received from people on this
list, and I continue to mull over other specific suggestions made by one or more reviewers.
Many students and teaching assistants, too numerous to list, have caught mistakes in earlier
­editions or have suggested rewording some paragraphs. I am grateful to them.
As always, it was a pleasure working with the team at Cengage Learning. Michael Parthenakis,
my longtime Product Manager, has learned very well how to guide me with a firm yet gentle hand.
Anita Verma and Ethan Crist quickly mastered the difficult challenges of being the content and sub-
ject matter expert team of a dense, technical textbook. Their careful reading of the manuscript and
fine eye for detail have improved this seventh ­edition considerably.
This book is dedicated to my family: Leslie, Edmund, and R.G.
Jeffrey M. Wooldridge

58860_fm_hr_i-xxii.indd 21 10/23/18 6:11 PM


About the Author

Jeffrey M. Wooldridge is University Distinguished Professor of Economics at Michigan State


University, where he has taught since 1991. From 1986 to 1991, he was an assistant professor of eco-
nomics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He received his bachelor of arts, with majors in
computer science and economics, from the University of California, Berkeley, in 1982, and received
his doctorate in economics in 1986 from the University of California, San Diego. He has published
more than 60 articles in internationally recognized journals, as well as several book chapters. He
is also the author of Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, second edition. His
awards include an Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, the Plura Scripsit award from Econometric
Theory, the Sir Richard Stone prize from the Journal of Applied Econometrics, and three graduate
teacher-of-the-year awards from MIT. He is a fellow of the Econometric Society and of the Journal
of Econometrics. He is past editor of the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, and past
econometrics coeditor of Economics Letters. He has served on the editorial boards of Econometric
Theory, the Journal of Economic Literature, the Journal of Econometrics, the Review of Economics
and Statistics, and the Stata Journal. He has also acted as an occasional econometrics consultant for
Arthur Andersen, Charles River Associates, the Washington State Institute for Public Policy, Stratus
Consulting, and Industrial Economics, Incorporated.

xxii

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chapter 1
The Nature
of Econometrics
and Economic Data

C
hapter 1 discusses the scope of econometrics and raises general issues that arise in the
application of econometric methods. Section 1-1 provides a brief discussion about the pur-
pose and scope of econometrics and how it fits into economic analysis. Section 1-2 provides
examples of how one can start with an economic theory and build a model that can be estimated
using data. Section 1-3 examines the kinds of data sets that are used in business, economics, and
other social sciences. Section 1-4 provides an intuitive discussion of the difficulties associated with
­inferring ­causality in the social sciences.

1-1 What Is Econometrics?


Imagine that you are hired by your state government to evaluate the effectiveness of a publicly
funded job training program. Suppose this program teaches workers various ways to use computers in
the manufacturing process. The 20-week program offers courses during nonworking hours. Any
hourly manufacturing worker may participate, and enrollment in all or part of the program is volun-
tary. You are to determine what, if any, effect the training program has on each worker’s subsequent
hourly wage.
Now, suppose you work for an investment bank. You are to study the returns on different invest-
ment strategies involving short-term U.S. treasury bills to decide whether they comply with implied
economic theories.
The task of answering such questions may seem daunting at first. At this point, you may only
have a vague idea of the kind of data you would need to collect. By the end of this introductory
econometrics course, you should know how to use econometric methods to formally evaluate a job
training program or to test a simple economic theory.
1

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2 CHAPTER 1 The Nature of Econometrics and Economic Data

Econometrics is based upon the development of statistical methods for estimating economic
relationships, testing economic theories, and evaluating and implementing government and business
policy. A common application of econometrics is the forecasting of such important macroeconomic
variables as interest rates, inflation rates, and gross domestic product (GDP). Whereas forecasts of
economic indicators are highly visible and often widely published, econometric methods can be used
in economic areas that have nothing to do with macroeconomic forecasting. For example, we will
study the effects of political campaign expenditures on voting outcomes. We will consider the effect
of school spending on student performance in the field of education. In addition, we will learn how to
use econometric methods for forecasting economic time series.
Econometrics has evolved as a separate discipline from mathematical statistics because the for-
mer focuses on the problems inherent in collecting and analyzing nonexperimental economic data.
Nonexperimental data are not accumulated through controlled experiments on individuals, firms,
or segments of the economy. (Nonexperimental data are sometimes called observational data, or
retrospective data, to emphasize the fact that the researcher is a passive collector of the data.)
Experimental data are often collected in laboratory environments in the natural sciences, but
they are more difficult to obtain in the social sciences. Although some social experiments can be
devised, it is often impossible, prohibitively expensive, or morally repugnant to conduct the kinds
of controlled experiments that would be needed to address economic issues. We give some specific
examples of the differences between experimental and nonexperimental data in Section 1-4.
Naturally, econometricians have borrowed from mathematical statisticians whenever possible.
The method of multiple regression analysis is the mainstay in both fields, but its focus and interpreta-
tion can differ markedly. In addition, economists have devised new techniques to deal with the com-
plexities of economic data and to test the predictions of economic theories.

1-2 Steps in Empirical Economic Analysis


Econometric methods are relevant in virtually every branch of applied economics. They come into
play either when we have an economic theory to test or when we have a relationship in mind that has
some importance for business decisions or policy analysis. An empirical analysis uses data to test a
theory or to estimate a relationship.
How does one go about structuring an empirical economic analysis? It may seem obvious, but
it is worth emphasizing that the first step in any empirical analysis is the careful formulation of the
question of interest. The question might deal with testing a certain aspect of an economic theory, or it
might pertain to testing the effects of a government policy. In principle, econometric methods can be
used to answer a wide range of questions.
In some cases, especially those that involve the testing of economic theories, a formal economic
model is constructed. An economic model consists of mathematical equations that describe various
relationships. Economists are well known for their building of models to describe a vast array of
behaviors. For example, in intermediate microeconomics, individual consumption decisions, subject
to a budget constraint, are described by mathematical models. The basic premise underlying these
models is utility maximization. The assumption that individuals make choices to maximize their
well-being, subject to resource constraints, gives us a very powerful framework for creating tractable
economic models and making clear predictions. In the context of consumption decisions, utility maxi-
mization leads to a set of demand equations. In a demand equation, the quantity demanded of each
commodity depends on the price of the goods, the price of substitute and complementary goods, the
consumer’s income, and the individual’s characteristics that affect taste. These equations can form the
basis of an econometric analysis of consumer demand.
Economists have used basic economic tools, such as the utility maximization framework, to
explain behaviors that at first glance may appear to be noneconomic in nature. A classic example is
Becker’s (1968) economic model of criminal behavior.

58860_ch01_hr_001-018.indd 2 10/18/18 4:04 PM


Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
A HOPI SHRINE

A HOPI WEAVER OF CEREMONIAL ROBES


A KATCHINA DANCE

Showing the elaborate masks used by the Hopi

Close to their homes are many shrines that excite the curiosity of tourists and
that sometimes get visitors into trouble. Once a couple of the overly curious
were thrashed with whips by Hopi of the Chimopovi district—for which the guilty
were severely punished by the Agent then in charge. But more than one Agent
has ordered busybodies to replace bahoos and gifts taken from such places.
While I had a hand in this, and finally stopped the plundering of old graves, and
once prevented the sale and removal of an entire Hopi altar, still I must admit
that I never caught a tourist or a “scratcher” pillaging a newly made grave.

Most of the clans must have been intermingled in so small a population. We


have Youkeoma’s statement that there is a Ghost clan, subdivided into a Ghost-
and-Bird clan. A more intelligent member of the tribe once endeavored [339]to
recall for me the numerous fraternities of his people. He said: “The Sun, Salt,
Crow, and Ant clans are dead. There are no more of those people. The Parrot
clan now has but one member, a woman. The Bear clan is the largest, and next
come the Sand and Snake clans. There are the Spider and Evergreen clans.
Some of them go in groups, so we have the Bear, Spider, and Evergreen clans
associated, as is the Rabbit clan with the Tobacco clan. We have the Eagle, the
Horn, the Fire, and the Flute clan; the Antelope, the Lizard, and the Corn clan.”
And when that group of progressive head-men petitioned Washington in 1886
for a school, they signed themselves as leaders of the Mountain-sheep clan, the
Coyote and Badger clans, the Rain, the Reed, and the Katchina clans. But one
of these men is living to-day—Honani, of Chimopovi, always one of the
friendlies. The most interesting and impressive of them, Shupula, father of the
chief Snake priest, died July 4, 1916, a benign old man whose features are
preserved in a splendid piece of modeling by Mr. Emri Kopte, the sculptor who
has lived for many years among the Hopi Indians.

Next to these phases of his religion are the red pages of his life-calendar. The
Hopi is born to a heritage of toil in an unfriendly environment, and perhaps to
misunderstanding and small sympathy; but the poetry of his life begins at once.
The paternal grandmother acts as his nurse. After bathing the child she anoints
it with wood ashes, that he may have a smooth body. The mother is supposed
not to let the sun shine on her for the period of twenty days, at the end of which
time the child is named. Only the women of the husband’s family are present at
this ceremony. They bring a blanket of Hopi weave, and a bowl of sacred water
to place before the mother. They [340]wash her hair with this water. Each of these
godmothers brings an ear of corn as an offering. They dip the corn in the water
and stroke the head of the infant four times, making at the same time a wish for
its health and happiness. Each of them suggests a name. The child will belong
to the mother’s clan, but will be named for something denoting the father’s clan.
If the father happens to be a member of the Sand clan, his children will be
named for things common to the desert sand.
HOPI MOTHER IN GALA DRESS, WITH HER CHILD
Photo. by H. R. Robinson
NAVAJO MOTHER, WITH A CHILD IN ITS CRADLE

On the twenty-first day after the birth these women have assembled and washed
the mother’s hair. This is before sunrise: they are a dawn-loving people. Then
the grandmother takes the infant in one arm and the mother by the hand.
Imagine that little ceremony upon the craggy mesa-top in the gray chill of the
desert morning, high in the thin air, overlooking all the dim sleeping valleys.
They step to the mesa edge to view the rising sun. Sacred meal, mixed with
corn-pollen, is strewn on the air. Then, as that mellow light flames the farthest
east, radiating from the hearts of all the people, gilding Yucca Point and the
Terrace of the Winds, plashing warmly the cold walls of the mesa fortress, the
grandmother speaks the name she has selected from those suggested for the
child.

If the child be a girl, she will receive another name on reaching maturity, when
her hair will be washed and arranged in the symbolic whorls as a sign of
womanhood. If a boy, he will receive another name at a certain ceremony
entitling him to wear a mask and to dance. These names then last through life.

One can understand from this little baptismal scene how my friend of the Second
Mesa, Ta-las-we-huma, got his name. It must have been a beautiful sunrise, and
the little fellow must have been well-favored in the sight of his [341]sponsors; for
his name may be translated, “Glow of the Rising Sun.”

The Hopi do not name their children with the frank vulgarity that so often is
found among the Navajo and other tribes. Many of their titles are pure poetry.
We have Lo-may-ump-tewa—something Going Straight and Good, as an arrow
—and Se-you-ma—one who Carries a Flower. Then there are many names such
as we commonly associate with Indians: Sah-mee or Green Corn, and Qua-ku-
ku, or Eagle Claws.

The Hopi maiden is most frequently given a tender name, and she is often a
pretty little thing deserving it. We find Tawa-mana, or Girl of the Sun, and Pole-
mana and Pole-see, meaning Butterfly Girl and Butterfly Flowers (buttercups).

They are equally tasteful in naming places. I have already mentioned Huh-kwat-
we, the Terrace of the Winds. Of their closer and more intimate places we find
Ta-wah-pah Spring, the Spring of the Sun, at one time a most precious
waterhole, however roiled and muddy. And Pah-lots-quabbie, the “place where
we get red paint for the face,” a point of particular interest to the women who
wish to preserve their complexions. Despite their copper-colored skins, the
intense rays of the desert sunlight cause them to take measures for protection.
Much of Indian face-painting is cosmetic, and not for the brilliant color-scheme
that a tourist connects with war-parties and potential scalpings.

Many of their names are difficult to translate in a word or two, since they most
often describe things fully. The desert Indian is not a word-maker, and for
unfamiliar objects he does not create nouns. There is Dah-vuph-cho-mah: this
spot white men call the Hill of the Water-Witch, [342]for it is where the Water
Development chief has his home, shops, and office. He calls it a “camp.” Camp
or not, it is a haven of welcome for rare souls, including itinerant artists, poets,
and depressed Indian Agents. A disappointed candidate for the much-coveted
mayoralty of Polacca, probably actuated by bitterness, once dubbed this
prominence Pisgah. The Hopi named it, long before the mystery of well-rigs and
peach-tree wands was known, Dah-vuph-cho-mah: “the place where we dry
rabbit-skins for the quilts.” Quite simple, is it not?

The Hopi once made many robes of rabbit-skins. It was necessary to bury the
pelts in the sand before removal to the mesa-top, a ceremonial matter; and Dah-
vuph-cho-mah was the place to do it. The skins were then rolled into ropes, thick
and soft, and sewed together. I last saw these coverings at Hotevilla, where so
many traditions are preserved.

And this suggests the methods of rabbit-hunting. The Hopi does not seek bunny
with .22 rifle, or bow and arrow, or snares. Actually he drops the swift creature
with the Hopi rabbit-stick or boomerang, a curved piece of mountain-oak that
these Indians throw skillfully. But the answer to the inquiring tourist is—“He runs
the rabbit down.” The Hopi are fleet of foot, and of course our touring friend
devours this explanation literally. Hopi rabbit-hunts are joyous community-affairs,
and they do run the rabbit down. They encircle a very large area of desert valley,
all runners, all bearing rabbit-sticks. Then they begin contracting the circle. As
the rabbits flee before one advancing line of beaters, they are turned back by
other lines. From every bush, it seems, Hopi are bobbing up, with menacing
blows and wild cries. The game is thus run down and killed when tiring. Patient
[343]burros bear home the spoils. I have seen these beasts covered with dead
rabbits, while afar in the plain still arose the merry shouts of the running hunters.

The language of the Tewa is composed of shorter terms.

“What do you call these?” I asked, showing some local beans.

“We call them ‘tdo.’ ”


“What does that mean?”

“It means ‘beans.’ When a Tewa means beans, he says ‘beans.’ But when a
Hopi speaks of these, he says: ‘Kotcha-cha-chi-morzree,’ ‘the beans that are
soft when boiled a long time.’ ” So he described them first, when experimenting
with their cooking, and he has never seen fit to shorten his nomenclature.

Compared with the stalwart Sioux or the equally tall and vigorous Navajo of the
mountains, men of the horses, the Hopi are at first glance a little people. This
has brought them some sympathy from those who seize on superficial
appearances. The mature Hopi has a thick figure, not inclined to fatness, but
with barrel-like lungs and a sturdy back. He would make a fine wrestler. As he
has accepted things of civilization via the trader, and absorbed so much from his
neighbor, the Navajo, his costume is not radically different to-day. The curious
dresses of the olden-time, of buckskin, cloth of native weave, and feathers, such
as may be seen in the Harvey collection at Albuquerque, have disappeared from
the mesas and to the younger generation are unknown. A shirt of velveteen,
loose trousers of some light cloth, often pure white, moccasins of red-stained
buckskin and his own peculiar design, a handkerchief twisted about his head,
these form his costume. Most of his ornaments are bought of the Navajo, save
that an occasional Hopi silversmith [344]will hammer the metal into Hopi patterns,
such as butterflies and snakes with turquoise eyes. When you see these forms,
they are Hopi. The Navajo does not use them.
A NEW SON OF THE DESERT

One who has been to school and who runs his own cattle

Photo. by George L. Leaming


HOPI GIRLS ARRAYED FOR A DANCE

But in this dress of the men the resemblance to the nomad ceases. The true
Hopi is marked by his short stature, his broader and radically different
physiognomy, and especially by the dressing of his hair. The Navajo is usually a
sloven with his hair. Do not get too close to him. The Navajo draws his hair
tightly back from the brow, and catches it in a knot or a queue at the back of his
head. And there is little difference between the men and their women. The Hopi
wears the bang and the straight bobbed effect that came out of Egypt. When it is
possible, he takes scrupulous care of his mane. Hair-washing is an important
feature of all ceremonies. He was the first bobbed American.

To-day this effect will be found among the orthodox only. The younger men,
home from schools, have adopted the comb and shears as they drift away from
many fetishes. But hair-cutting has produced some serious wrangles with the
Hopi. Long ago an Agent zealously interpreted a Washington order to mean that
all Indians, not only those in schools, should be made to cut their hair in white
man’s fashion—as if this would produce civilization overnight. To the elders of
the tribe this was a terrible heresy, and they resisted very naturally. It is too bad
that orders cannot be transmitted in the form of blue-prints.
The women of the tribe are the strongholds of conservatism. I recall holding a
council of mixed sexes, the talk relating to some form of community
improvement along modern lines. And when it was over, I asked my interpreter:
— [345]

“Do you believe they understood?”

“The men, of course,” he replied, emphatically; “but do you think it possible to


get that stuff through a Hopi woman’s head? Epten. The men will try to carry out
your wishes; but they are in for a very unpleasant time of it with their women. A
Hopi woman! She is like a piece of sandrock. The winds wear it away, but it will
take many years.”

The younger women, who have had schooling, wear the gingham and calico
dresses they have learned to make and launder, and the field matrons assist
them in renewing these garments. But the old ones, and the students of middle-
age, are most likely to be found wearing the ancient Hopi weaves. A dress may
be of thick cloth caught at one shoulder, leaving the opposite arm bare, belted at
the waist with a woven sash, the wearer’s legs and feet bare most of the time,
unless for some special journey she dons the woman’s wrapping and shoe of
buckskin. She grows thick and fat, her countenance rounding into a broad,
complacent face that can smile pleasantly or become stolidly impervious as the
mood strikes her. Once married, her hair is parted and hangs down her back in
thick plaits. Her hands are thick and coarsened from hard labor, the making of
pottery, and especially from the baking of piki bread.

This baking is done on a red-hot stone over the fire. The Hopi woman sits before
it, at her side a pan of batter, sometimes colored red or blue. She dips her hand
into the batter and smears it deftly over the hot stone. Before it has burned and
curled, she wipes over it a second layer. This last cooks perfectly in a thin wafer,
quite like tissue-paper, crinkled and brittle. This she peels off and places in a pile
of such sheets. All day she does this, [346]often until her palm is perfectly cooked
with the bread. The sheets are then rolled, again resembling a packet of tissue,
quite like those we used to buy at Christmas time for decorations. A dozen of
these rolls, and the Hopi man will take the trail, fully provided with provender.

Some rather reject the thought of eating piki bread, but I have sampled Indian
foods more than once, and with different results. An old Navajo shemah can
broil mutton ribs and prepare a pot of coffee over a hogan fire in such a way that
one who has had a hard trip,—and more of it to come,—thinks them delicious.
And piki bread is not half bad, although rather flat in taste, and gritty, for the
sand will intrude; and I suppose if one accepted it as a steady diet his teeth
would be worn down in time, like those of the older Hopi. As for the cooked
hand, one should gratefully accept and eat piki without being too curious as to
its making. The proof of the pudding is in the eating.

Next in the Hopi life-calendar appears the urgent necessity for marriage. The
happy man has very little to do with this affair. The bride-elect—self-elected—
and her mother, a wily dowager who has contrived a large part of the
proceedings, decide most of these things for themselves. I cannot say how early
negotiations have been opened by the aunts and uncles of both signatories, but
of course they have been consulted. At any rate, on a day the girl and her
mother pay a visit to the eligible young man’s home, and tender his parents a
present of piki bread and cornmeal on a woven-reed plaque. Most Southwest
tribes use a wedding-basket symbol; the Navajo import from another tribe a
wedding basket of definite design, and will use no other. If the boy’s parents
accept [347]these presents and replace them with a portion of mutton on the
same plaque, they have signified their consent to the union. If there has been
dissension between the Montagues and Capulets and a plague on both houses,
so to speak, the disdaining parents give this piki and meal to others, signifying
their lack of interest in mere foreigners, and these receiving diplomats break the
sad news that a perfectly good offer has been declined.

But if the present is accepted, the uncles of the bride-elect gather at her home to
advise her concerning the duties of a good wife, and at an appointed time the
girl, accompanied by her parents and close relatives, headed by the one who
named her, proceed to the home of the groom’s parents for a feast. This
gathering is held at night, and when they depart the bride remains. She spends
four nights in her husband’s people’s home, doing the housework for the whole
family. Very early in the morning she begins the corn-grinding, to pay for her
husband. During these four days there is a ceremony of hair-washing, and her
hair is given a peculiar cut to mark her as a married woman. Ever after she
wears it so. And during these four days the boy’s uncles bring in cotton for her
wedding-robe. They are paid for it in meal, and they depart to the kiva to weave
it. While at this weaving, they are fed by the girl’s family. At the end of the four
days the robe is finished. The uncles heap a wealth of advice on the groom
before he departs from the home of his birth. Then the bride dons the white robe
and goes with her husband to the home of her own parents; that is to say, she is
accompanied by her husband. If he has had any ideas of a home of his own,
away from the precincts of mother-in-law, he has not announced them, and
apparently discretion is the better part of valor. [348]

In this manner a young lady has gone to the home of a desirable young man,
proposed for him, married him, partially paid for him, decked herself with apparel
manufactured by his people, and then led him to her home in triumph.

There is nothing new under the sun. Vamping was reduced to a precise science
by the Hopi many centuries before the pueblo de Los Angeles was dreamed of.

“And—hark! As I live, again the villagers!”

All this has not been enough to establish cordial relationship between the
families. There must be something in the nature of a riotous shivaree. These folk
who have captured our darling boy must not be permitted to crow too loud. So
the mother of the groom, his influential aunts and other female relatives,
especially those whose temperaments will lend verve to the affair, proceed to the
rival house. They go upon an errand of mock-seriousness that may assume
proportions. They will say unpleasant things in loud voices, especially for the
benefit of the neighbors, to the effect that this bride has numerous and glaring
defects, and that, if the truth be told, perhaps their paragon has not acquired the
most beautiful and gracious of the village maidens.

The women of the bride’s household reply in kind, their language not always the
most decorous. Personal references are made, involving the cleanliness and
habits of both parties, and a friendly fight is on. These ladies proceed to sling
mud,—at first verbally, and then actually,—real mud, over the house and each
other. The bride and her mother will have to have a vigorous house-cleaning
after this, and fresh plastering on the interior walls. Perhaps that is the idea of it
—to make them furbish the domicile. [349]

The masculine element is conspicuous by its utter absence. The men know
better than to appear. Like white men on house-cleaning day, they seek the
highest roof or the lowest cellar, along with their disconsolate dogs. Woe betide
any absent-minded one who strays within the field. Both parties are likely to turn
on him with more than words and mud. It is not likely that the men will dare
come home until after sunset, when, no doubt, their attention will be distracted
by recitals of the affair, and the condition of the home will cause them much
grief.

A friendly, if undignified, roughhouse, to show the world that these two families,
now having common interests, can endure the most unpleasant conditions and
survive.

And would you imagine that the groom is ever to have a home of his very own,
with a fireside, and slippers, and everything? Not unless he has his Agent
behind him and bravely kicks over the sacred traditions, risking ostracism
possibly and at least a great deal of home-town misery. Just how long Jacob will
serve that family for Rachel, I am not aware; and unlike Jacob, he serves after
having been snared. He draws and transports the water, if he has a wagon; he
cuts the wood and attends the field; he wrangles horses, herds cattle, and helps
manicure the sheep. He is owned by this old mother who directed her daughter’s
attention toward him.

To be fair, sometimes the girl has fancied him for herself, without too much
urging of family; and I recall asking more than one diffident groom, when about
to publish banns:—

“Do you really, of yourself, wish to marry this woman?”

“Well, sir—she wants me to marry her.”

In delicate matters of this kind, the Hopi young man is pleasantly agreeable and
strives to please. [350]

And I succeeded in getting very few of them to take another point of view. There
were several determined Romeos who had selected girls for themselves, who
paid court despite all family disapproval, and who finally won out in their suits.
But they were shrewdly wise to fortify themselves in Governmental positions:
interpreters, policemen, laborers, or assistants, otherwise they would likely have
been ostracized and come close to starvation. Having joined the Moungwi’s
official family, however, and being endowed with monthly salary “fresh and
fresh,” they could assert a bit of independence, could demand immunity from the
bitterest of traditions; and I suppose they made much of their closeness to the
Big Chief. Most Indians do. “I will tell my white uncle” has throttled many a
threatened unpleasantness.

Then too, they were regarded by those less fortunate as rich men, having,
besides a monthly surety, certain perquisites and a supposed subtle influence in
foreign affairs.

“This Moungwi speaks to Washington by papers and the singing wires; and do
you not know, stupid one, that I often talk with him?”

Their family visitors and retainers increased and were many. Not an enviable
position, a place at court, despite its reflected importance and privilege. And the
fall thereof when, Fate decreeing, the Moungwi with loud words dismissed one
of these believed favorites! A return to the kiva influences was not a happy
experience. Sanctuary had not been copied or absorbed from those early
Spaniards and their holy friars. Indian ridicule and Indian persecution can be
very cruel.

Few of the young men have the wherewithal to build a home or to buy one,
either at the mesa or in the valley, [351]so they are tied for years to this feudal
family-system, waiting to inherit from their elders.

Even when one is so fortunate, so energetic, or so rash as to throw aside the


traditions, he simply accepts bondage without mother-in-law, since no part of the
house nor anything he brings to it, other than his personal belongings, may be
claimed by him. The woman owns and rules the home, and this includes the
children and the harvest. The children are of the mother’s clan. The man may
disport himself, gaily dressed and agile as a panther, in the ceremonies; he may
be a leader in the hunt; he may declaim in the kiva; but his authority ceases at
the threshold of the Hopi home.

For has not this woman, during the first year of her married life, ground from one
to two thousand pounds of corn meal in payment for her man and her wedding
dress? She has, indeed. And since she has purchased him, she has the right to
divorce him. He may slave in the hot fields and the sand-blows, running to and
from the patches, hoe on shoulder, to charm a crop of corn. He has planted with
ceremony—so many grains for the hot wind, so many for the field rat, so many
for the katchina, and so many for himself; but once he has harvested it, and
packed the Hopi share to the home cellar, his ponies may starve for the lack of a
hatful of grain if his wife is not generous. One thing with another, I think the Hopi
male has a rather tough time of it. Sometimes he grows a bit fretful and
proceeds to push his wife about, rarely going so far as to box her jaws, which
she very often thoroughly deserves and earns. Then, if she still likes him, she
appeals amid tears to the Agent, with view to having him reprimanded and,
unless it be crop-time, jailed. But if she does not care for him overmuch,
[352]having, as related of an Ethiopian matron, “entirely lost her taste for that
man,” she abruptly divorces him.
Photo. by A. H. Womack
HOPI WEDDING COSTUME

This action calls for no assemblage of the family circle or of chieftains, no


personal complaint, no service of notice, as one might imagine. Friend husband
returns at evening from the sheep-camp or cornfield, probably crooning an old
kiva hymn, at peace with all the Desert and its demons, to find his saddlegear,
his cow-rope, and his other shirt on the doorstep. The decree is thus handed
down, recorded, and confirmed. There is no appeal. He is out. He hoists his few
belongings on his back and departs away from there.

If a young man, he will likely return to the parental roof; if not, he becomes a
solitary and a wanderer for a season, roosting about where nightfall catches
him, to be found later in company with some divorced woman or widow,
cheerfully toiling to harvest corn for children not his own. When this thing has
been repeated a number of times, and throughout a whole tribe, the Agent’s job
of keeping vital statistics of clarity begins to loom into proportions. A Hopi
genealogical record resembles a war-map. The keeping of it becomes abstract
science, having both biological and anthropological phases.

I have known Hopi men of middle age who long maintained a fatherly interest in
their children after such a social cataclysm; but they were not many, most of
them growing careless of any and all responsibility; and I have found women as
the heads of households to which—to adjust the records—I had to assign four
husbands, all living and none present.

But to return to the Hopi wedding. After the four days spent in the home of her
husband’s people, and her triumphant return with the captive to the house of her
[353]mother, the bride is supposed to deny herself the pleasure of all Hopi revelry
and ceremony until the next Neman Katchina Dance. This occurs about a
fortnight prior to the Snake Dance of August, and is an appeal for rain and
harvest fruition. Then she arrays herself once more in the pure white robe, and
appears for a few moments at the ceremony. This is to be her last bid for public
attention and the bride’s centre of the stage, before settling down to a life of toil
certainly, the rearing of many children probably, and perhaps a number of
alliances. But it matters not how troubled her life, how peaceful, pure, how
hectic; this first marriage is the only one to be distinguished by a ceremony and
a symbol. This is the last time she wears the robe—save one. When next we
see her in its white folds, she, having fulfilled the monotonous duties of a true
Hopi or having, like Emma Bovary, tested all of life’s experiences, is waiting,
peacefully uncaring, to be carried to her last bed in the shadow of the great,
immutable mesa.
My introduction to the importance of the wedding robe came about through an
effort to eliminate the evil power of the tribe’s old women. The weddings were
arranged entirely too early, and operated to defy both Arizona State Law and
Service regulation. It was a foxy method and held to with savage determination.
An appeal to the Bureau would have brought only the hopeless decision that a
tribal marriage had been declared a legal marriage by great Eastern Solons bent
on pushing Orientals into Occidental grooves. Often too, young people were
forced into these marriages. And the results were highly pleasing to the Hopi
elders, and four-fold: Rachel’s mother procured labor in the form of Jacob.
Jacob’s family received the ton of corn meal that Rachel would grind. Certainly
[354]Rachel, and often both contracting parties, were prevented from attending
the schools, as the old Hopi earnestly desired; and Hopi traditions as to fruition
were completely satisfied.

There was an even more serious result. This grinding of corn meal early and
late, crouched over the stone metate, ended in the young mother’s losing her
first-born. At one time there was no Hopi woman at the First Mesa whose first-
born child was living.

So, as Moungwi, I gave them fair warning that these things must stop. They did
not stop. An Indian, of whatever tribe, will always chance a test. They are a great
people for stolid experiments. My first idea of punishment was, the child-wife to
the boarding-school, the groom and his father to the Agency jail.

“But,” these male unfortunates finally convinced me, “you are punishing the
wrong persons. We men have had nothing to do with the matter. Get the old
women.”

And when this was done there were lamentations and floods of tears. One old
virago nearly washed me from her home. It was a wet season at the mesa. And
the virus worked about as successfully as a local philosopher of the Hopi
described another’s conversion to Christianity via baptism.

“First time they get him, just like vaccinate him—no take. He backsliding now—
dance all time—old Hopi again. But next time they get him baptized, mebbeso it
take all right—mebbeso.”

Not all of my efforts produced success.


You may ask, Why not secure the girl in school before this untoward happening?
The younger children of the Hopi all attend day schools, located close to their
homes, and often a girl will reach maturity before the matrons [355]have
knowledge of a marriage scheme. With the child-wife in the boarding-school,
caught during those first four days, there was no procession to mamma’s house,
no corn-grinding, no attendance of the Katchina dance, and no robe. The joy
had been taken out of life. There was mourning in both camps; for, as Jacob was
in jail, there was no water-hauling, no woodcutting, no unpaid laboring in the
field. It was a very sad state of affairs, tribally, and apparently this strange
Moungwi had little sympathy for the human race,—at least the Hopi division of it,
and its urge to perpetuate itself.

One day, about two years after the imposition of such a sentence, I met an old
man at a distant mesa who asked for a talk.

“His daughter is home now,” said the interpreter, “and he wants your permission
to have her robe woven.”

“Robe—you mean a wedding robe?”

“Yes. You recall she had no tribal ceremony; and it is like this: When the white
people marry, they have a ring. The white robe is our ring. If she dies, there will
be no robe to bury her in.”

Such is the stupidity of the alien when he seeks to rule the so-called heathen.
My method was justified to protect the weak and the young, but I had cast out
sentiment.

It may be they shall give me greater ease


Than your cold Christ and tangled Trinities.

Quite so many Lispeths. I promptly gave permission for the weaving of a robe,
and I hope she has had no use for it, nor will have, these many years.

The mid-West moralist may interpolate a question here. Without their own
service, did you permit them to go unmarried? This had little in it of the material
compared [356]with that robe episode. But as Moungwi, a commissioned Head of
the people, vested also with the authority of the State of Arizona, I would
solemnize a legal ceremony if events had proved one necessary and the parties
had attained a legal age. I never married a woman to a scoundrel. But I have
married four couples in one morning, issuing first the State license as a
deputized clerk of the court, solemnizing the ceremony as a magistrate, blessing
the bride, and immediately thereafter summoning into open court the groom and
all other guilty persons for trial on a charge of child-prostitution. This method was
drastic, and very wearing on one who had other things to engage his attention.
And it was not a very cheering family-event. But it finally produced obedience.
There came a time when the Hopi would consult the Agency records as to their
children’s ages, and would inquire about school terms, and what Moungwi
thought about it, before framing-up family alliances.

The happiest of the Hopi marriages were those following my permission to


schoolboys and girls to arrange their own courting, sometimes at the school,
thus breaking down old mesa-lines. Boys of the First Mesa married Hotevilla
girls: a thing that would never have been tolerated by the parents on either side.
Close as are the mesas, housing the one people, they might as well be separate
provinces. Seldom will a First Mesa marry an Oraibi, for instance, and vice
versa. A local form of derision among the Hopi is to mock the differences in
pronunciation and intonation of their common language. Oraibi is less than thirty
miles from Walpi, and yet an Oraibi is a being recognizing a different civilization.

When last I visited Phœnix, I entered a shop to make a purchase. A fine-looking


Hopi came forward and greeted [357]me. We talked about the folks at home, of
his summer visit to the mesas, who had died and who had married.

“Now let me see,” I parleyed, for it is hard to remember all individuals of a tribe.
“You are married—what is your wife’s name?”

“Why, you know her; she was Youkeoma’s granddaughter.”

“Sure enough—Viola—the one who hid in the wagon and ran away to school at
Phœnix, for fear I would send her back to Hotevilla.”

Birth and baptism; marriage and divorce; many dances; a lifetime of endless toil
and endless prayer; many harvests, rich and meagre. Then comes the time
when he has planted his last crop, or she has finished the last of household
labors. Something happens to end things, and to serve summons to the
Judgment Seat, that lonely prominence overlooking the Oraibi-Dinnebito
Washes in the west. The tireless feet will no longer cover the steep trails to the

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