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Preface vii
clickstream analysis, the role of Twitter and Linked-In in marketing research, and improv-
ing students’ critical thinking skills.
Fourth, other texts include little coverage of the task of conducting a literature review to
find background information on the research problem. Our text has a chapter that includes
substantial material on literature reviews, including guidelines on how to conduct a litera-
ture review and the sources to search. Because students rely so heavily on the Internet,
the emphasis is on using Google, Yahoo!, Bing, and other search engines to execute the
background research. In our effort to make the book more concise, we integrated secondary
sources of information with digital media searches. This material is in Chapter 3.
Fifth, our text is the only one that includes a separate chapter on qualitative data analysis.
Other texts discuss qualitative data collection, such as focus groups and in-depth interviews, but
then say little about what to do with this kind of data. In contrast, we dedicate an entire chapter
to the topic that includes interesting new examples and provides an overview of the seminal
work in this area by Miles and Huberman, thus enabling professors to provide a more balanced
approach in their classes. We also explain important tasks such as coding qualitative data and
identifying themes and patterns. An important practical feature in Chapter 9 of the third edition
is a sample report on a qualitative research project to help students better understand the differ-
ences between quantitative and qualitative reports. We also have an engaging, small-scale quali-
tative research assignment on product dissatisfaction as a new MRIA at the end of the chapter
to help students more fully understand how to analyze qualitative research. We think you and
your students will find this assignment to be an engaging introduction to qualitative analysis.
Sixth, as part of the “applied” emphasis of our text, Essentials has two pedagogical
features that are very helpful to students’ practical understanding of the issues. One is the
boxed material mentioned above entitled the Marketing Research Dashboard that sum-
marizes an applied research example and poses questions for discussion. Then at the end
of every chapter, we feature a Marketing Research in Action (MRIA) exercise that enables
students to apply what was covered in the chapter to a real-world situation.
Seventh, as noted above, our text has an excellent continuing case study throughout
the book that enables the professor to illustrate applied concepts using a realistic example.
Our continuing case study, the Santa Fe Grill Mexican Restaurant, is a fun example stu-
dents can relate to given the popularity of Mexican restaurant business themes. As men-
tioned above, for this edition we added an employee data set so students can complete a
competitive analysis, including application of importance-performance concepts, and also
relate the employee findings to the customer perceptions. Because it is a continuing case,
professors do not have to familiarize students with a new case in every chapter, but instead
can build on what has been covered earlier. The Santa Fe Grill case is doubly engaging
because the story/setting is about two college student entrepreneurs who start their own
business, a goal of many students. Finally, when the continuing case is used in later chap-
ters on quantitative data analysis, a data set is provided that can be used with SPSS and
SmartPLS to teach data analysis and interpretation skills. Thus, students can truly see how
marketing research information can be used to improve decision making.
Eighth, in addition to the Santa Fe Grill case, there are four other data sets in SPSS
format. The data sets can be used to assign research projects or as additional exercises
throughout the book. These databases cover a wide variety of topics that all students can
identify with and offer an excellent approach to enhance teaching of concepts. An over-
view of these cases is provided below:
Deli Depot is an expanded version of the Deli Depot case included in previous edi-
tions. An overview of this case is provided as part of the MRIA (Marketing Research
in Action) feature in Chapter 10. The sample size is 200.
viii Preface
Remington’s Steak House is introduced as the MRIA in Chapter 11. Remington’s

Steak House competes with Outback and Longhorn. The focus of the case is analyzing
data to identify restaurant images and prepare perceptual maps to facilitate strategy
development. The sample size is 200.
QualKote is a business-to-business application of marketing research based on an
employee survey. It is introduced as the MRIA in Chapter 12. The case examines the
implementation of a quality improvement program and its impact on customer satis-
faction. The sample size is 57.
Consumer Electronics is based on the rapid growth of the digital recorder/player mar-
ket and focuses on the concept of innovators and early adopters. The case overview
and variables as well as some data analysis examples are provided in the MRIA for
Chapter 13. The sample size is 200.
Ninth, the text’s coverage of quantitative data analysis is more extensive and much
easier to understand than other books’. Specific step-by-step instructions are included on
how to use SPSS and SmartPLS to execute data analysis for many statistical techniques.
This enables instructors to spend much less time teaching students how to use the software
the first time. It also saves time later by providing a handy reference for students when
they forget how to use the software, which they often do. For instructors who want to cover
more advanced statistical techniques, our book is the only one that includes this topic. In
the fourth edition, we have added additional material on topics such as common methods
bias, selecting the appropriate scaling method, and a table providing guidelines to select
the appropriate statistical technique. Finally, we include an overview of the increasingly
popular variance based approach to structural modeling (PLS-SEM) and much more exten-
sive coverage of how to interpret data analysis findings.
Tenth, as noted earlier, online marketing research techniques are rapidly changing the
face of marketing, and the authors have experience with and a strong interest in the issues
associated with online data collection. For the most part, other texts’ material covering
online research is an “add-on” that does not fully integrate online research considerations
and their impact. In contrast, our text has extensive new coverage of these issues that is
comprehensive and timely because it was written in the last year when many of these
trends are now evident and information is available to document them.
Pedagogy
Many marketing research texts are readable. But a more important question is, “Can
students comprehend what they are reading?” This book offers a wealth of pedagogical
features, all aimed at answering the question positively. Below is a list of the major peda-
gogical elements available in the fourth edition:
Learning Objectives. Each chapter begins with clear Learning Objectives that stu-
dents can use to assess their expectations for and understanding of the chapter in view
of the nature and importance of the chapter material.
Real-World Chapter Openers. Each chapter opens with an interesting, relevant
example of a real-world business situation that illustrates the focus and significance
of the chapter material. For example, Chapter 1 illustrates the emerging role of social
networking sites such as Twitter in enhancing marketing research activities.
Marketing Research Dashboards. The text includes boxed features in all chapters
that act like a dashboard for the student to understand emerging issues in marketing
research decision making.
Preface ix
Key Terms and Concepts. These are boldfaced in the text and defined in the page
margins. They also are listed at the end of the chapters along with page numbers to
make reviewing easier, and they are included in the comprehensive marketing research
Glossary at the end of the book.
Ethics. Ethical issues are treated in the first chapter to provide students with a basic
understanding of ethical challenges in marketing research. Coverage of increasingly
important ethical issues has been updated and expanded from the second edition, and
includes online data collection ethical issues.
Chapter Summaries. The detailed chapter Summaries are organized by the Learning
Objectives presented at the beginning of the chapters. This approach to organizing
summaries helps students remember the key facts, concepts, and issues. The Summa-
ries serve as an excellent study guide to prepare for in-class exercises and for exams.
Questions for Review and Discussion. The Review and Discussion Questions are care-
fully designed to enhance the self-learning process and to encourage application of the
concepts learned in the chapter to real business decision-making situations. There are two
or three questions in each chapter directly related to the Internet and designed to provide
students with opportunities to enhance their digital data gathering and interpretative skills.
Marketing Research in Action. The short MRIA cases that conclude each of the chap-
ters provide students with additional insights into how key concepts in each chapter can be
applied to real-world situations. These cases serve as in-class discussion tools or applied
case exercises. Several of them introduce the data sets found on the book’s Web site.
Santa Fe Grill. The book’s continuing case study on the Santa Fe Grill uses a single
research situation to illustrate various aspects of the marketing research process. The Santa
Fe Grill continuing case, including competitor Jose’s Southwestern Café, is a specially
designed business scenario embedded throughout the book for the purpose of questioning
and illustrating chapter topics. The case is introduced in Chapter 1, and in each subsequent
chapter, it builds on the concepts previously learned. More than 30 class-tested examples
are included as well as an SPSS and Excel formatted database covering a customer survey
of the two restaurants. In earlier editions, we added customer survey information for
competitor Jose’s Southwestern Café, as well as employee survey results for the Santa Fe
Grill, to further demonstrate and enhance critical thinking and analytical skills.
McGraw-Hill Connect®: connect.mheducation.com

Continually evolving, McGraw-Hill Connect® has been redesigned to provide the only true
adaptive learning experience delivered within a simple and easy-to-navigate environment,
placing students at the very center.
∙∙ Performance Analytics—Now available for both instructors and students, easy-to-

decipher data illuminates course performance. Students always know how they are
doing in class, while instructors can view student and section performance at-a-glance.
∙∙ Mobile—Available on tablets, students can now access assignments, quizzes, and results
on-the-go, while instructors can assess student and section performance anytime, anywhere.
∙∙ Personalized Learning—Squeezing the most out of study time, the adaptive engine
within Connect creates a highly personalized learning path for each student by identify-
ing areas of weakness and providing learning resources to assist in the moment of need.
This seamless integration of reading, practice, and assessment ensures that the focus is on
the most important content for that individual.
x Preface
LearnSmart®
LearnSmart, the most widely used adaptive learning resource, is proven to improve grades.
By focusing each student on the most important information they need to learn, Learn-
Smart personalizes the learning experience so they can study as efficiently as possible.
SmartBook®
SmartBook—an extension of LearnSmart—is an adaptive eBook that helps students focus
their study time more effectively. As students read, SmartBook assesses comprehension
and dynamically highlights where they need to study more.
Instructor Library
The Connect Instructor Library is your repository for additional resources to improve student
engagement in and out of class. You can select and use any asset that enhances your lecture.
Instructor’s Resources. Specially prepared Instructor’s Manual and Test Bank and
PowerPoint slide presentations provide an easy transition for instructors teaching with
the book the first time.
Data Sets. Six data sets in SPSS format are available in the Connect Library, which
can be used to assign research projects or with exercises throughout the book. (The
concepts covered in each of the data sets are summarized earlier in this Preface.)
SmartPLS Student Version. Through an arrangement with SmartPLS
(www.smartple.de), we provide instructions on how to obtain a free student ver-
sion of this powerful new software for executing structural modeling, multiple
regression, mediation, and many other interesting types of analyses. Specific instruc-
tions on how to obtain and use the software are available in the Connect Library.
SPSS Student Version. This powerful software tool enables students to analyze up
to 50 variables and 1,500 observations. SPSS data sets are available that can be used
in conjunction with data analysis procedures included in the text. Licensing informa-
tion is available from IBM Analytics for Education: www.ibm.com/analytics/us/en
/industry/education
Acknowledgments
The authors took the lead in preparing the fourth edition, but many other people
must be given credit for their significant contributions in bringing our vision to real-
ity. We thank our colleagues in academia and industry for their helpful insights
over many years on numerous research topics: David Andrus, Kansas State Uni-
versity; Barry Babin, Louisiana Tech University; Joseph K. Ballanger, Stephen F.
Austin State University; Ali Besharat, University of South Florida; Kevin Bittle,
Johnson and Wales University; Mike Brady, Florida State University; John R.
Brooks, Jr., Houston Baptist University; Mary L. Carsky, University of Hart-
ford; Gabriel Perez Cifuentes, University of the Andes; Vicki Crittenden, Boston
College; Diane Edmondson, Middle Tennessee State University; Keith Ferguson,
Michigan State University; Frank Franzak, Virginia Commonwealth University;
Susan Geringer, California State University, Fresno; Anne Gottfried, University of
Southern Mississippi; Timothy Graeff, Middle Tennessee State University; Dana Harrison,
Preface xi
East Tennessee State University; Harry Harmon, Central Missouri State University;
Lucas Hopkins, Florida State University; Gail Hudson, Arkansas State
University; Beverly Jones, Kettering University; Karen Kolzow-Bowman, Morgan State
University; Michel Laroche, Concordia University; Bryan Lukas, University of Melbourne;
Vaidotas Lukosius, Tennessee State University; Lucy Matthews, Middle Tennessee State
University; Peter McGoldrick, University of Manchester; Martin Meyers, University of
Wisconsin, Stevens Point; Arthur Money, Henley Management College; Vanessa Gail
Perry, George Washington University; Ossi Pesamaa, Jonkoping University; Emily J.
Plant, University of Montana; Michael Polonsky, Deakin University; Charlie Ragland,
Indiana University; Molly Rapert, University of Arkansas; Mimi Richard, University of
West Georgia; John Rigney, Golden State University; Jeff Risher, Kennesaw State Uni-
versity; Wendy Ritz Fayetteville State University; Jean Romeo, Boston College; Lawrence
E. Ross, Florida Southern University; Phillip Samouel, Kingston University; Carl Saxby,
University of Southern Indiana; Donna Smith, Ryerson University; Marc Sollosy, Marshall
University; Bruce Stern, Portland State University; Goran Svensson, University of Oslo;
Armen Taschian, Kennesaw State University; Drew Thoeni, University of North Florida ;
Gail Tom, California State University, Sacramento; John Tsalikis, Florida International
University; Steve Vitucci, University of Central Texas; Tuo Wang, Kent State University;
David Williams, Dalton State University;
Our sincere thank goes also to the helpful reviewers who made suggestions and shared
their ideas for the fourth edition:
Mary Conran Lee Ann Kahlor

Fox School of Business at Temple University University of Texas at Austin
Curt John Dommeyer Sungho Park
California State University at Northridge Arizona State University
Finally, we would like to thank our editors and advisors at McGraw-Hill Education. Thanks
go to Laura Hurst Spell, sponsoring editor; Elizabeth Schonagen, marketing manager; and
Jenilynn McAtee, project manager.
Joseph F. Hair, Jr.
Mary W. Celsi
David J. Ortinau
Robert P. Bush
Brief Contents
Part 1 T
he Role and Value of Marketing
Research Information 1
1 Marketing Research for Managerial
Decision Making 2
2 The Marketing Research Process
and Proposals 24
Part 2 D
esigning the Marketing Research
Project 47
3 Secondary Data, Literature Reviews,
and Hypotheses 48
4 Exploratory and Observational Research
Designs and Data Collection Approaches 74
5 Descriptive and Causal Research Designs 106
Part 3 G
athering and Collecting
Accurate Data 133
6 Sampling: Theory and Methods 134
7 Measurement and Scaling 158
8 Designing the Questionnaire 190
Part 4 D
ata Preparation, Analysis,
and Reporting the Results 219
9 Qualitative Data Analysis 220
10 Preparing Data for Quantitative Analysis 246
11 Basic Data Analysis for Quantitative Research 272
12 Examining Relationships in Quantitative
Research 316
13 Communicating Marketing Research Findings 352
Glossary 382
Endnotes 400
Name Index 404
Subject Index 406
xii
Contents
Part 1 T
he Role and Value of Marketing 2 The Marketing Research Process
and Proposals 24
Research Information 1
Solving Marketing Problems
1 Marketing Research for Managerial Using a Systematic Process 25
Decision Making 2 Value of the Research Process 26
Geofencing 3 Changing View of the Marketing
The Growing Complexity of Marketing Research Process 26
Research 4 Determining the Need for
MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD: Information Research 27
CONDUCTING INTERNATIONAL MARKETING RESEARCH
MARKETING RESEARCH 4 DASHBOARD: DECISION
The Role and Value of Marketing Research 6 MAKERS AND RESEARCHERS 28
Marketing Research and Overview of the Research Process 29
Marketing Mix Variables 6 Transforming Data into Knowledge 30
Marketing Theory 9 Interrelatedness of the Steps and the
MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD: Research Process 31
THE PERFECT PRICING EXPERIMENT? 10 Phase I: Determine the Research Problem 31
The Marketing Research Industry 10 Step 1: Identify and Clarify
Types of Marketing Research Firms 10 Information Needs 32
Changing Skills for a Changing Industry 11 Step 2: Define the Research Questions 34
Ethics in Marketing Research Practices 12 Step 3: Specify Research Objectives
Ethical Questions in General and Confirm the Information Value 36
Business Practices 12 Phase II: Select the Research Design 36
Conducting Research Not Meeting Step 4: Determine the Research
Professional Standards 13 Design and Data Sources 36
Abuse of Respondents 14 MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD:
Unethical Activities of the MEASURING EFFECTIVENESS
Client/Research User 15 OF ONLINE ADVERTISING FORMATS 37
MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD 15 Step 5: Develop the Sampling
Unethical Activities by the Respondent 16 Design and Sample Size 38
Marketing Research Codes of Ethics 16 Step 6: Examine Measurement
CONTINUING CASE STUDY: THE SANTA Issues and Scales 38
FE GRILL MEXICAN RESTAURANT 17 Step 7: Design and Pretest
Emerging Trends 17 the Questionnaire 39
Marketing Research in Action 18 Phase III: Execute the Research Design 39
Continuing Case: The Santa Fe Grill 18 Step 8: Collect and Prepare Data 39
Summary 20 Step 9: Analyze Data 39
Key Terms and Concepts 20 Step 10: Interpret Data to
Review Questions 21 Create Knowledge 40
Discussion Questions 21 Phase IV: Communicate the Results 40
Appendix A 22
xiii
xiv Contents
Step 11: Prepare and Present Summary 70

the Final Report 41 Key Terms and Concepts 71
Develop a Research Proposal 41 Review Questions 71
Marketing Research in Action 42 Discussion Questions 71
What Does a Research Proposal Look Like? 42
Summary 44 4 Exploratory and Observational
Key Terms and Concepts 45 Research Designs and Data
Review Questions 45 Collection Approaches 74
Discussion Questions 46 Customer Territoriality in “Third Places” 75
Value of Qualitative Research 76
Part 2 D
esigning the Marketing Overview of Research Designs 77
Overview of Qualitative and Quantitative
Research Project 47 Research Methods 77
3 Secondary Data, Literature Reviews, Quantitative Research Methods 77
and Hypotheses 48 Qualitative Research Methods 78
Will Brick-and-Mortar Stores Qualitative Data Collection Methods 81
Eventually Turn into Product Showrooms? 49 In-Depth Interviews 81
Value of Secondary Data and Focus Group Interviews 82
Literature Reviews 50 Phase 1: Planning the Focus
Nature, Scope, and Role of Group Study 85
Secondary Data 50 Phase 2: Conducting the Focus
Conducting a Literature Review 51 Group Discussions 87
Evaluating Secondary Data Sources 51 Phase 3: Analyzing and Reporting
Secondary Data and the Marketing the Results 89
Research Process 53 Advantages of Focus Group
Internal and External Sources Interviews 89
of Secondary Data 54 Purposed Communities/Private
Internal Sources of Secondary Data 54 Community 89
External Sources of Secondary Data 54 Other Qualitative Data Collection
CONTINUING CASE STUDY: Methods 91
THE SANTA FE GRILL MEXICAN Ethnography 91
RESTAURANT USING Case Study 91
SECONDARY DATA 58 Projective Techniques 92
MARKETING RESEARCH CONTINUING CASE:
DASHBOARD: TRIANGULATING THE SANTA FE GRILL 92
SECONDARY DATA SOURCES 62 Observation Methods 93
Synthesizing Secondary Research for the Unique Characteristics of Observation
Literature Review 62 Methods 94
Developing a Conceptual Model 63 Types of Observation Methods 94
Variables, Constructs, and Selecting the Observation Method 96
Relationships 63 Benefits and Limitations of
Developing Hypotheses and Drawing Observation Methods 97
Conceptual Models 64 Social Media Monitoring and the
CONTINUING CASE STUDY: THE SANTA Listening Platform 97
FE GRILL MEXICAN RESTAURANT Netnography 99
DEVELOPING RESEARCH QUESTIONS Marketing Research in Action 100
AND HYPOTHESES 67 Reaching Hispanics through Qualitative
Hypothesis Testing 67 Research 100
Marketing Research in Action 69 Summary 102
The Santa Fe Grill Mexican Restaurant 69 Key Terms and Concepts 103
Contents xv
Review Questions 104 Population 137

Discussion Questions 104 Sampling Frame 138
Factors Underlying Sampling
5 Descriptive and Causal Theory 138
Research Designs 106 Tools Used to Assess the Quality
Magnum Hotel’s Loyalty Program 107 of Samples 139
Value of Descriptive and Causal Survey MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION
Research Designs 108 CONTINUING CASE STUDY: THE SANTA
Descriptive Research Designs FE GRILL 139
and Surveys 108 Probability and Nonprobability Sampling 140
Types of Errors in Surveys 109 Probability Sampling Designs 140
Sampling Errors 109 MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD:
Nonsampling Errors 110 SELECTING A SYSTEMATIC RANDOM
Types of Survey Methods 110 SAMPLE FOR THE SANTA FE GRILL 142
Person-Administered Surveys 111 MARKETING RESEARCH
Telephone-Administered Surveys 112 DASHBOARD: WHICH IS
Self-Administered Surveys 115 BETTER—PROPORTIONATELY OR
Selecting the Appropriate Survey Method 118 DISPROPORTIONATELY STRATIFIED
Situational Characteristics 118 SAMPLES? 145
Task Characteristics 119 Nonprobability Sampling Designs 146
Respondent Characteristics 120 Determining the Appropriate
Causal Research Designs 122 Sampling Design 148
The Nature of Experimentation 123 Determining Sample Sizes 148
Validity Concerns with Experimental Probability Sample Sizes 148
Research 124 CONTINUING CASE STUDY:
MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD: THE SANTA FE GRILL 149
RETAILERS USE EXPERIMENTS Sampling from a Small Population 150
TO TEST DISCOUNT STRATEGY 125 MARKETING RESEARCH
Comparing Laboratory and Field DASHBOARD: USING SPSS
Experiments 126 TO SELECT A RANDOM SAMPLE 150
Test Marketing 127 Nonprobability Sample Sizes 151
Marketing Research Dashboard 128 Other Sample Size Determination
Riders Fits New Database into Approaches 151
Brand Launch 128 MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD:
Summary 130 SAMPLING AND ONLINE SURVEYS 151
Key Terms and Concepts 131 Steps in Developing a Sampling Plan 152
Review Questions 131 Marketing Research in Action 154
Discussion Questions 132 Developing a Sampling Plan for a
New Menu Initiative Survey 154
Part 3 G
athering and Collecting Summary 155
Key Terms and Concepts 156
Accurate Data 133
Review Questions 156
6 Sampling: Theory Discussion Questions 156
and Methods 134
Mobile Web Interactions Explode 135 7 Measurement and Scaling 158
Value of Sampling in Marketing Santa Fe Grill Mexican Restaurant:
Research 136 Predicting Customer Loyalty 159
Sampling as a Part of the Value of Measurement in
Research Process 136 Information Research 160
The Basics of Sampling Theory 137 Overview of the Measurement Process 160
xvi Contents
What Is a Construct? 161 Step 4: Determine Layout and

Construct Development 161 Evaluate Questionnaire 203
Scale Measurement 163 MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD:
MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD: SMART QUESTIONNAIRES
UNDERSTANDING THE DIMENSIONS ARE REVOLUTIONIZING SURVEYS 204
OF BANK SERVICE QUALITY 163 Step 5: Obtain Initial
Nominal Scales 164 Client Approval 207
Ordinal Scales 164 Step 6: Pretest, Revise, and
Interval Scales 165 Finalize the Questionnaire 207
Ratio Scales 166 Step 7: Implement the Survey 207
Evaluating Measurement Scales 167 The Role of a Cover Letter 208
Scale Reliability 167 MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD:
Validity 168 COVER LETTER USED WITH THE
Developing Scale Measurements 169 AMERICAN BANK SURVEY 209
Criteria for Scale Development 169 Other Considerations in Collecting Data 210
Adapting Established Scales 172 Supervisor Instructions 210
Scales to Measure Attitudes and Behaviors 173 Interviewer Instructions 211
Likert Scale 173 Screening Questions 211
Semantic Differential Scale 174 Quotas 211
Behavioral Intention Scale 176 Call or Contact Records 211
Comparative and Noncomparative Marketing Research in Action 212
Rating Scales 177 Designing a Questionnaire to
Other Scale Measurement Issues 180 Survey Santa Fe Grill Customers 212
Single-Item and Multiple-Item Scales 180 Summary 217
Clear Wording 180 Key Terms and Concepts 218
Misleading Scaling Formats 181 Review Questions 218
Marketing Research in Action 184 Discussion Questions 218
What Can You Learn from a Customer
Loyalty Index? 184 Part 4 D
ata Preparation, Analysis,
Summary 186
and Reporting the Results 219
Review Questions 187 9 Qualitative Data Analysis 220
Discussion Questions 188 Why Women are “Claiming
the Throttle” 221
8 Designing the Questionnaire 190 Nature of Qualitative Data Analysis 222
Can Surveys Be Used to Develop Qualitative versus Quantitative Analyses 222
University Residence Life Plans? 191 The Process of Analyzing
Value of Questionnaires in Qualitative Data 223
Marketing Research 192 Managing the Data
Pilot Studies and Pretests 192 Collection Effort 223
Questionnaire Design 193 Step 1: Data Reduction 223
Step 1: Confirm Research Step 2: Data Display 230
Objectives 193 Step 3: Conclusion Drawing/
Step 2: Select Appropriate Verification 231
Data Collection Method 194 Writing the Report 235
Step 3: Develop Questions Analysis of the Data/Findings 236
and Scaling 194 Conclusions and Recommendations 237
MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD: CONTINUING CASE: SANTA FE GRILL:
“FRAMING” YOUR QUESTIONS CAN USING QUALITATIVE RESEARCH 238
INTRODUCE BIAS! 198 Marketing Research in Action 239
Contents xvii
A Qualitative Approach to Understanding Measures of Dispersion 277

Product Dissatisfaction 239 SPSS Applications—Measures of
Summary 240 Dispersion 278
Key Terms and Concepts 241 Preparation of Charts 281
Review Questions 242 How to Develop Hypotheses 281
Discussion Questions 242 MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD:
Appendix A 243 STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT
Advertising’s Second Audience: AND TESTING 282
Employee Reactions to Organizational Analyzing Relationships of
Communications 243 Sample Data 283
Sample Statistics and Population
10 P
reparing Data for Quantitative
Parameters 283
Analysis 246
Choosing the Appropriate Statistical
Scanner Data Improves Understanding
Technique 283
of Purchase Behavior 247
Univariate Statistical Tests 286
Value of Preparing Data for Analysis 248
SPSS Application—Univariate
Validation 249
Hypothesis Test 287
Editing and Coding 251
Bivariate Statistical Tests 287
Asking the Proper Questions 251
Cross-Tabulation 288
Accurate Recording of Answers 251
MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD:
Correct Screening Questions 252
SELECTING THE SANTA FE GRILL
Responses to Open-Ended Questions 255
CUSTOMERS FOR ANALYSIS 288
The Coding Process 256
Chi-Square Analysis 290
MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD:
Calculating the Chi-Square Value 291
DEALING WITH DATA FROM DATA
SPSS Application—Chi-Square 292
WAREHOUSES 258
Comparing Means: Independent
Data Entry 259
Versus Related Samples 293
Error Detection 259
Using the t-Test to Compare
Missing Data 259
Two Means 294
Organizing Data 261
SPSS Application—Independent
Data Tabulation 261
Samples t-Test 295
One-Way Tabulation 261
SPSS Application—Paired
Descriptive Statistics 264
Samples t-Test 296
Graphical Illustration of Data 264
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) 297
Marketing Research in Action 267
SPSS Application—ANOVA 298
Deli Depot 267
n-Way ANOVA 300
Summary 270
SPSS Application—n-Way
ANOVA 301
Perceptual Mapping 304
Discussion Questions 271
Perceptual Mapping Applications
11 B
asic Data Analysis for Quantitative in Marketing Research 305
Research 272 CONTINUING CASE STUDY:
Data Analysis Facilitates Smarter Decisions 273 THE SANTA FE GRILL 305
Value of Statistical Analysis 274 Marketing Research in Action 306
Measures of Central Tendency 274 Examining Restaurant Image Positions—
MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD: Remington’s Steak House 306
SPLITTING THE DATABASE INTO SANTA Summary 313
FE’S AND JOSE’S CUSTOMERS 276 Key Terms and Concepts 313
SPSS Applications—Measures of Review Questions 314
Central Tendency 276 Discussion Questions 314
xviii Contents
12 Examining Relationships 13 C
ommunicating Marketing
in Quantitative Research 316 Research Findings 352
Data Mining Helps Rebuild Procter & It Takes More than Numbers to
Gamble as a Global Powerhouse 317 Communicate 353
Examining Relationships Value of Communicating
between Variables 318 Research Findings 354
Covariation and Variable Relationships 319 Marketing Research Reports 354
Correlation Analysis 322 MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD:
Pearson Correlation Coefficient 323 CRITICAL THINKING AND MARKETING
SPSS Application—Pearson RESEARCH 357
Correlation 323 Format of the Marketing
Substantive Significance of the Research Report 357
Correlation Coefficient 325 Title Page 358
Influence of Measurement Scales on Table of Contents 358
Correlation Analysis 326 Executive Summary 358
SPSS Application—Spearman Introduction 359
Rank Order Correlation 326 Research Methods and Procedures 360
What Is Regression Analysis? 327 Data Analysis and Findings 361
Fundamentals of Regression Analysis 328 Conclusions and Recommendations 372
Developing and Estimating the Limitations 374
Regression Coefficients 330 Appendixes 374
SPSS Application—Bivariate Common Problems in Preparing
Regression 330 the Marketing Research Report 374
Significance 332 The Critical Nature of Presentations 375
Multiple Regression Analysis 333 Guidelines for Preparing Oral
Statistical Significance 334 Presentations 375
Substantive Significance 334 Guidelines for Preparing the Visual
Multiple Regression Assumptions 335 Presentation 376
SPSS Application—Multiple Marketing Research in Action 377
Regression 335 Who Are the Early Adopters of
What Is Structural Modeling? 339 Technology? 377
An Example of Structural Modeling 341 Summary 380
Marketing Research in Action 345 Key Terms and Concepts 381
The Role of Employees in Developing a Review Questions 381
Customer Satisfaction Program 345 Discussion Questions 381
Summary 348
Glossary 382
Endnotes 400
Name Index 404
Discussion Questions 349
Subject Index 406
Part 1
The Role and

Value of
Marketing
Research
Information
Marketing Research for
Managerial Decision
Making
Chapter 1
Learning Objectives After reading this chapter, you will be able to:
1. Describe the impact marketing 4. Understand the scope and focus of
research has on marketing decision the marketing research industry.
making. 5. Recognize ethical issues associated
2. Demonstrate how marketing with marketing research.
research fits into the marketing 6. Discuss new skills and emerging
planning process. trends in marketing research.
3. Provide examples of marketing
research studies.
Geofencing
Over the past 15 years, the Internet has sparked a number of significant innova-
tions in marketing research, from online surveys, to mobile surveys, to social
media monitoring. The newest Internet technology to influence both marketing
and marketing research may be geofencing. Geofencing is a virtual fence that is
placed around a geographic location in the real world. Location-enabled smart-
phone applications can detect entry and exit from these virtual fences. A geo-
fence can be as small as a coffee shop or as wide as a city block. Companies such
as Starbucks have used these virtual fences as a way to offer customers in-store
benefits such as ease of checkout and local in-store deals.1 In-store deals can be
customized based on the the shopper’s previous purchases or other information
available in the shopper’s profile.
For marketing researchers, geofencing offers a number of possible ways for
information to be gleaned from customers. The applications often possess the
ability to monitor purchasing behavior as well as the time of day of visits, the
number of visits, and the length of visits (often called “loitering time”).2 Perhaps
most interesting is the possibility of using geofencing to capture in-the-moment
feedback. Early research comparing surveys fielded by geofencing applications
to traditional surveys suggests that consumers more accurately report their ex-
periences immediately after they occur.3 An additional potential benefit for re-
searchers is that online browsing behavior can be matched to data on in-store
behavior.
Geofencing should be particularly helpful with collecting data from younger
customers who often do not participate in traditional surveys.4 Of course, con-
sumers must agree to turn on their location-based apps if researchers are to
collect data. On the other hand, potential research respondents can easily be of-
fered relevant rewards for participating in research based on geofencing apps.
The popularity of retail store apps that include geofencing components along
with the value of “in-context” feedback for marketers makes it likely that the use
of geofencing to collect marketing research information will grow in the next
few years.
4 Part 1 The Role and Value of Marketing Research Information
The Growing Complexity of Marketing Research

Technology and the growth of global business are increasing the complexity of marketing
research. Digital technologies bring a great deal of opportunities for marketing research
but create challenges as well. Internet-based tools, including web-based surveys, interac-
tive and social networking tools like Facebook and Twitter, and mobile phones are radically
remolding data collection. “Big data,” a term used to describe the large and complex
datasets that information technology enables organizations to gather and store, requires
innovative tools to extract insight for businesses and marketers. Some new techniques, such
as neuromarketing—which involves scanning the brains of research subjects while show-
ing them ads, for instance—have not yet proven themselves, and may or may not eventu-
ally provide useful insights to marketers. Many new data collection tools, including Twitter,
clickstream tracking, GPS, and geofencing, pose serious questions in regard to consumer
privacy. The current variety of available tools and techniques makes choosing a method for
a particular research project increasingly challenging. An additional level of complexity in
research design occurs whenever the research effort is global. In our first Marketing Research
Dashboard, we address issues in conducting international marketing research. Never before
has the research landscape been more complex or more exciting for marketing researchers.
MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD CONDUCTING INTERNATIONAL

MARKETING RESEARCH
Many marketing research firms have a presence in a large product to a specific segment. More specific research
number of countries. For example, Gfk Research (www applicable to the specific marketing opportunity or prob-
.gfk.com) advertises that it performs marketing research lem is likely to be necessary.
in over 100 countries. Still, performing research in coun- Research on emerging markets, such as Latin America,
tries around the world poses some challenges. A great Africa, and the Middle East, is important as these market-
deal of marketing theory and practice to date has been places are growing, but the lack of existing secondary data
developed in the United States. The good news is that and market research suppliers in these areas of the world
many theories and concepts developed to explain con- presents challenges for businesses who would like to bet-
sumer behavior are likely to be applicable to other con- ter understand these marketplaces. Developing research
texts. For example, the idea that consumers may purchase capabilities in these areas is complicated by the fact that
items that reflect their self-concepts and identities likely identifying representative samples is difficult because
applies to many countries. Second, marketing research existing reliable demographic data in these markets may
techniques, including sampling, data collection, qualitative not be available. Translating survey items into another lan-
and quantitative techniques, and statistical analyses, are guage may change their meaning even when the precau-
tools that are likely to be almost universally applicable. tion of backtranslation is used to identify potential issues.
But there are many challenges. Some marketing Moreover, establishing conceptual equivalence in surveys
researchers study a country’s culture and make broad may be difficult; for example, the Western notion of “truth”
conclusions about the applicability of their findings. How- is not applicable in the Confucian philosophy.
ever, culture may strongly affect some kinds of purchases Building relationships with marketing research compa-
and not others. Second, some target segments and sub- nies in the countries where firms want to collect information
cultures exist across countries, so performing research is the preferred strategy as firms within countries already
that focuses on cultural differences at the level of coun- have useful knowledge about research challenges and
tries may too narrowly define a target market. Last, Yoram solutions. However, marketing research is not always highly
Wind and Susan Douglas argue that while consumers in regarded by managers in emerging marketplaces. This may
different countries tend to behave somewhat differently, be true for several reasons. Consumer acceptance and par-
there is often more variance in behavior within a coun- ticipation in surveys may be low. The cost of poor business
try than between countries. Thus, research making broad decisions may be lower and thus the perceived need for
conclusions about consumer culture in a particular coun- research to minimize risk is lessened. And, researchers who
try may not be useful to a company marketing a specific engage in both qualitative and quantitative techniques often
(Continued )
Chapter 1 Marketing Research for Managerial Decision Making 5
MARKETING RESEARCH DASHBOARD CONDUCTING INTERNATIONAL

MARKETING RESEARCH (Continued )
have to adjust methodology to more successfully interact marketplace. The research firms who are able to provide
with consumers in emerging marketplaces. actionable information will be those who study consumer
Technology presents both opportunities and barriers for behavior in context, work with local marketing research firms
international marketing research. 3Com commissioned Harris to develop sound marketing research infrastructure, apply
Interactive to conduct the world’s largest interactive Internet- new technologies appropriately to collect valid and reliable
based poll. Fully 1.4 million respondents in 250 countries data, and develop the analytical sophistication to understand
around the world participated in Project Planet. In many coun- segments within and across country boundaries.
tries, respondents entered their answers in an online survey. Sources: Yoram Wind and Susan Douglas, “Some Issues in
In remote areas without telephones and computers, interview- International Consumer Research,” European Journal of Marketing,
ers were sent with portable handheld tablets for data entry. 2001, pp. 209–217; C. Samuel Craig and Susan P. Douglas,
When interviewers returned from the field, the data could be “Conducting International marketing Research in the 21st Century,”
uploaded to the database. In this research effort, 3Com was 3rd Edition, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester, West Sussex, England
able to reach even technologically disenfranchised communi- 2005; B. Sebastian Reiche and Anne Wil Harzing, “Key Issues in
ties. While the results were based on a convenience rather International Survey Research,” Harzing.com, June 26, 2007, www
than a representative sample, the effort still represents an .harzing.com/ intresearch_keyissues.htm, accessed August 11, 2011;
important, if imperfect global effort at collecting meaningful Fernando Fastoso and Jeryl Whitelock, “Why is so Little Marketing
Research on Latin America Published in High Quality Journals
cross-cultural information.
and What Can We Do About It?” International Marketing Research,
What does the future hold? Research firms and companies 2011, Vol. 28(4), pp. 435-439; Holmes, Paul “3Com’s Planet Project: An
who can successfully develop methods and concepts that Interactive Poll of the Human Race,” http://www.holmesreport.com
will aid them to better understand and serve marketplaces /casestudyinfo/581/3Coms-Planet-Project-An-Interactive-Poll-of
around the world are likely to be more competitive in a global -the-Human-Race.aspx, May 28, 2011, accessed August 13, 2011.
Despite the explosion of new marketing research tools and concepts, established tools
such as hypothesis testing, construct definition, reliability, validity, sampling, and data anal-
ysis remain essential to evaluating the uses and value of new data collection approaches.
Traditional data collection methods such as focus groups, mystery shopping, and computer-
aided telephone interviewing (CATI) are still relevant and widely used tools. Companies
increasingly are choosing hybrid research techniques involving multiple research methods
to overcome the weaknesses inherent in single methodologies.
Marketing research The The American Marketing Association defines marketing research as the function
function that links an that links an organization to its market through the gathering of information. This informa-
organization to its market tion facilitates the identification and definition of market-driven opportunities and prob-
through the gathering of lems, as well as the development and evaluation of marketing actions. Finally, it enables
information.
the monitoring of marketing performance and improved understanding of marketing as a
business process.5 Organizations use marketing research information to identify new prod-
uct opportunities, develop advertising strategies, and implement new data-gathering meth-
ods to better understand customers.
Marketing research is a systematic process. Tasks in this process include designing methods
for collecting information, managing the information collection process, analyzing and interpret-
ing results, and communicating findings to decision makers. This chapter provides an overview
of marketing research and its fundamental relationship to marketing. We first explain why firms
use marketing research and give some examples of how marketing research can help companies
make sound marketing decisions. Next we discuss who should use marketing research, and when.
The chapter provides a general description of the ways companies collect marketing
research information. We present an overview of the marketing research industry in order
to clarify the relationship between the providers and the users of marketing information.
The chapter closes with a description of the role of ethics in marketing research, followed
by an appendix on careers in marketing research.
6 Part 1 The Role and Value of Marketing Research Information
The Role and Value of Marketing Research

Many managers with experience in their industry can make educated guesses based on
their experience. But markets and consumer tastes change, sometimes rapidly. No matter
how much experience that managers might have with their marketplace, they occasionally
find that their educated guesses miss the mark. Behavioral decision theorists such as Dan
Ariely, author of Predictably Irrational, have documented that even experienced individu-
als can be very wrong in their decision making even when the decision they are making
has important consequences.6 And many managerial decisions involve new contexts where
experience may be absent or even misleading. For example, organizations may be consid-
ering new strategies, including marketing to a new segment, using new or evolving media
to appeal to their customers, or introducing new products.
Marketing research draws heavily on the social sciences both for methods and theory.
Thus, marketing research methods are diverse, spanning a wide variety of qualitative and
quantitative techniques and borrowing from disciplines such as psychology, sociology, and
anthropology. Marketing research can be thought of as a toolbox full of implements designed
for a wide variety of purposes. Tools include surveys, focus groups, experiments, and ethnog-
raphy, just to name a few. The size of the toolbox has grown in recent years with the advent of
“big data,” social media, Internet surveys, and mobile phones. And international marketing
problems and opportunities have brought complexity to marketing problems and opportuni-
ties along with special challenges for marketing researchers who seek to understand these
markets. The size and diversity of the toolbox represent exciting opportunities for marketing
researchers to grow and develop innovative ways of learning about markets and consumers.
Whether you work for a small, medium, or large business, it is highly likely that sooner
or later you or your organization will buy research, commission research, or even engage in
do-it-yourself (DIY) research. While some research methods involve techniques that are hard
to master in one course, the essential material in a one-semester course can take you a long
way toward being a better research client and will enable you to do some projects on your own.
You probably already know that not all research efforts are equally well executed, and
poorly conceived efforts result in information that is not useful for decision making. As
well, some secondary research may initially appear to be relevant to a decision, but after
reviewing the methodology or sample employed by the research firm, you may decide
that the research is not useful for your decision problem. Moreover, even well-executed
research has some weaknesses and must be critically evaluated. Developing the knowledge
and critical stance to evaluate research efforts will help you determine how and when to
apply the research that is available to marketing problems at hand.
Marketing research can be applied to a wide variety of problems involving the four
Ps: price, place, promotion, and product. Additionally, marketing research is often used
to research consumers and potential consumers in vivid detail, including their attitudes,
behaviors, media consumption, and lifestyles. Marketers are also interested in consumer
subcultures, as products are often used to enact and support subculture participation. Last,
marketing academics and consultants often perform theoretical research that helps mar-
keters understand questions applicable to a broad variety of marketing contexts. Below,
we explain how marketing research applies to the traditional four Ps; to studying consum-
ers and consumer subcultures; and the role of theoretical research in marketing.
Marketing Research and Marketing Mix Variables

Product Product decisions are varied and include new product development and introduc-
tion, branding, and positioning products. New product development often involves a great
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CHAPTER VII
IS THE UNIVERSE INFINITE?
Kant and the number of the stars—Extinct stars and dark
nebulæ—Extent and aspect of the astronomical universe
—Different kinds of universes—Poincaré’s calculation—
Physical definition of the infinite—The infinite and the
unlimited—Stability and curvature of cosmic space-time—
Real and virtual stars—Diameter of the Einsteinian
universe—The hypothesis of globes of ether.
Is the universe infinite? It is a question that men have asked in all

ages, though they have not defined its meaning very accurately. The
theory of Relativity enables us to approach it from a new and subtle
point of view.
Kant—the genial grumbler who found it so horribly monotonous
to see the same sun shining, and the same spring blossoming, every
year—took his stand on metaphysical considerations when he
affirmed that space is infinite, and is sown with similar stars in all
parts.
It is, perhaps, better to confine ourselves in such a matter to the
results of recent observation, and close the doors of our debating-
room against the fog of metaphysics. Indeed, the latter would compel
us to define pure space, about which we know nothing—not even if
there is such a thing.
The proof that we know little about it is the fact that the
Newtonians believe in it, while the Einsteinians regard it merely as
an inseparable attribute of material things. They define space by
matter; and they then have to define the latter. Descartes, on the
contrary, defined matter in terms of extension, which is the same
thing as space. It is a vicious circle. It is therefore better to leave
Kant’s metaphysical arguments out of our discussion, and adhere
strictly to experience, to what is measurable.
To simplify matters, we will admit the reality of this continuum in
which the stars float, which is traversed by their radiations, which
common sense calls space. If there were stars everywhere—if they
were infinite in number—there would also be space and matter
everywhere. Newtonians might find this a triumph equally with
Einsteinians. Those who believe in absolute space and those who
deny it—Absolutists and Relativists—would equally rejoice.
It would be fortunate if astronomical observation were to show
that the number of the stars is infinite, and thus the holders of
contrary opinions could both chant a victory in their writings. But
what does astronomical observation actually report?
There are those who deny a priori that the number of the stars
can be infinite. That number, they said, is capable of increase; it is
therefore not infinite, because nothing can be added to the infinite.
The argument is specious, but unsound; although Voltaire himself
was seduced by it. One need not be a great mathematician to see
that it is always possible to add to an infinite number, and that there
are infinite quantities which are themselves infinitely small in
comparison with others. Let us get on to the facts.
If the stellar universe has no limits, there is no visual line drawn
from the earth to the heavens which will not encounter one of the
stars. The astronomer Olbers has said that the whole nocturnal sky
would in that case shine with the brilliance of the sun. But the total
brilliance of all the stars put together is only three thousand times
greater than that of a star of the first magnitude, or thirty million times
less than the light of the sun.
But that proves nothing, as Olbers’ argument is wrong, for two
reasons. On the one hand, there are necessarily a good many
extinct or dark stars in the heavens. Some of them have been
closely studied, even weighed. They betray their existence by
periodically eclipsing brighter stars, with which they revolve. On the
other hand, it was discovered some time ago that celestial space is
occupied over large stretches by dark gaseous masses and clouds
of cosmic dust, which absorb the light of more distant stars. We thus
see that the existence of an infinite number of stars is quite
compatible with the poorness of the light of the heavens at night.
Now let us put on our spectacles—our telescopes, I mean—and

turn from the province of possibility to that of reality, and we shall see
that recent astronomical observation has yielded a number of
remarkable facts which lead irresistibly to the following conclusions.
The number of the stars is not, as was long supposed, limited by
the range of our telescopes alone. As we get further away from the
sun, the number of stars contained in a unity of space, the frequence
of the stars, the density of the stellar population, do not remain
uniform, but decrease in proportion as we approach the limits of the
Milky Way.
The Milky Way is a vast archipelago of stars, our sun lying in its
central region. This mass of stars, to which we belong, has, roughly,
the shape of a watch-case, the thickness being only about half the
width of the structure. Light, which travels from the earth to the moon
in little over a second, from the earth to the sun in eight minutes, and
from the earth to the nearest star in three years, needs at least
30,000 years—three hundred centuries—to pass from end to end of
the Milky Way.
The number of stars in the Milky Way is something between 500
and 1,500 millions. It is a small number: scarcely equal to the human
population of the earth, much smaller than the number of molecules
of iron in a pin’s head.
In addition to these we have discovered dense masses of stars,
such as the Magellanic Clouds, the cluster in Hercules, and so on,
which seem to belong to the fringes of our Milky Way—to be suburbs
of it, so to say. These suburbs seem to stretch a considerable
distance, particularly on one side of the Milky Way. The furthest
away is, perhaps, not less than 200,000 light-years from us.
Beyond these, space seems to be deserted, devoid of stars over
expanses which are enormous in comparison with the dimensions of
our galactic universe as we have described it. What is beyond this?
Well, beyond this we find those strange bodies, the spiral
nebulæ, lying like silver snails in the garden of the stars. We have
discovered several hundred thousand of them. Some astronomers
believe that these spiral masses of stars may be annexes of the
Milky Way, reduced models of it. Most astronomers incline to think,
for very good reason, that the spiral nebulæ are systems like the
Milky Way, and comparable to it in their dimensions. If the former
view is correct, the entire system of stars accessible to our
telescopes could be traversed by light in some hundreds of
thousands of years. On the second hypothesis the dimensions of the
stellar universe to which we belong must be multiplied by ten, and
light would take at least millions of years to traverse it.
On the first view the entire stellar universe, in so far as it is
accessible to us, consists of the Milky Way and its annexes: that is to
say, a local concentration of stars, beyond which we can see
nothing. The stellar universe is, in other words, practically limited, or
at least finite.
On the second view our Milky Way is simply one of the myriads of
spiral universes we see. The spiral nebula (with its hundreds of
millions of stars) plays the same part in this vaster universe that a
star has in the Milky Way. We have the same problem as before, but
on a vaster scale: if the Milky Way consists of a concentration of a
finite number of stars, as observation proves, does the accessible
universe consist of a finite number of spiral nebulæ?
Experience has as yet not pronounced on this point. But in my
opinion it is probable that, when our instruments are powerful
enough to tackle such a problem—in several centuries, perhaps—
science will answer “yes.”
If it were otherwise, if the spiral nebulæ were fairly evenly
distributed as we go outward, we can show by calculation that,
attraction being in inverse proportion to the square of the distance,
gravitation would have an infinite intensity in such a universe, even
in the part in which we live. But this is not the case. It follows that,
either the attraction of two masses decreases at great distances
rather more rapidly than in inverse proportion to the square of the
distance (which is not wholly impossible), or that the number of
stellar systems and stars is finite. Personally I favour the second
hypothesis, but it is incapable of proof. In such matters there is
always an alternative, always a way of escaping in accordance with
one’s bias, and there is really nothing that compels us to say that the
stars are finite in number.
Starting from the mean value, as it has been observed, of the

proper motions of the nearer stars, Henri Poincaré has calculated
that the total number of stars in the Milky Way must be about one
thousand million. The figure agrees fairly well with the results of the
star-gauges effected by astronomers by means of photographic
plates.
He has also shown that the proper motions of stars would be
greater if there were many more stars than those which we see.
Thus Poincaré’s calculations are opposed to the hypothesis of an
indefinite extension of the stellar universe, as the number of stars
“counted” agrees fairly closely with the number “calculated.” We
should add, however, that these calculations prove nothing if the law
of attraction is not quite the inverse proportion of the square at
enormous distances.
On the other hand, if the universe is finite in space as it is
conceived in classic science, the light of the stars, and isolated stars
themselves, would gradually drift away into the infinite, and the
cosmos would disappear. Our mind resents this consequence, and
astronomical observation discovers no trace whatever of such a
dislocation.
In a word, in the space of the “Absolutists” the stellar universe
can only be infinite if the law of the square of distances is not quite
exact for very remote masses; and it cannot be finite except on the
condition that it is ephemeral in point of time.
For Newton, indeed, the stellar universe might be finite within an
infinite universe, because in his view there can be space without
matter. For Einstein, on the contrary, the universe and the material or
stellar universe are one and the same thing, because there is no
space without matter or energy.
These difficulties and obscurities disappear in great part when we

consider space, or space-time, from the Einsteinian standpoint of
General Relativity.
What is the meaning of the sentence, “The universe is infinite”?
From either the Einsteinian, the Newtonian, or the Pragmatist point
of view it means: If I go straight ahead, going on eternally, I shall
never get back to my starting-point.
Is it possible? Newton is compelled to say yes, because in his
view space stretches out indefinitely, independent of the bodies that
occupy part of it, whether the number of the stars is or is not limited.
But Einstein says no. For the Relativist the universe is not
necessarily infinite. Is it therefore limited, fenced in by some sort of
railings? No. It is not limited.
A thing may be unlimited without being infinite. For instance, a
man who moves on the surface of the earth may travel over it
indefinitely in every direction without ever reaching a limit. The
surface of the earth, thus regarded, or the surface of any sphere
whatsoever, is therefore both finite and unlimited. Well, we have only
to apply to space of three dimensions what we find in two-
dimensional space (a spherical surface), to see how the universe
may be at one and the same time finite and unlimited.
We saw that, in consequence of gravitation, the Einsteinian
universe is not Euclidean, but curved. It is, as we said, difficult, if not
impossible, to visualise a curvature of space. But the difficulty exists
only for our imagination, which is restricted by our life of sense, not
for our reason, which goes farther and higher. It is one of the
commonest of errors to suppose that the wings of the imagination
are more powerful than those of reason. If one wants proof of the
contrary, one has only to compare what the most poetic of ancient
thinkers made of the starry heavens with what modern science tells
about the universe.
Here is the way to approach our problem. Let us not notice for
the moment the rather irregular distribution of stars in our stellar
system, and take it as fairly homogeneous. What is the condition
required for this distribution of the stars under the influence of
gravitation to remain stable? Calculation gives us this reply: The
curvature of space must be constant, and such that space is bent
like a spherical surface.
Rays of light from the stars may travel eternally, indefinitely,
round this unlimited, yet finite, universe. If the cosmos is spherical in
this way, we can even imagine the rays which emanate from a star—
the sun, for instance—crossing the universe and converging at the
diametrically opposite point of it.
In such case we might expect to see stars at opposite points in
the heavens, of which one would be the image, the spectre, the
“double” of the other—in the sense which the ancient Egyptians gave
to the word. Properly speaking, this “double” would represent, not
the generating star as it is, but as it was at the time when it emitted
the rays which form the double, or millions of years earlier.
If we observe the original and the double star, the reality and the
mirage, simultaneously from some remote part of the stellar system,
such as our planet, we shall see a great difference between them,
since the “copy” will show us the original as it was thousands of
centuries before. It may, in fact, happen that the second star is more
brilliant than the first, because in the meantime the first has gradually
cooled, and may even be extinct.
It is improbable that we should find many of these phantom-stars,

or virtual stars, luminous and unreal daughters of heavy suns. The
reason is that the rays in their passage through the universe will
generally be diverted by the stars near which they pass.
Concentration or convergence of them at the antipodes of the real
star must be rare. Moreover, the rays are to some extent absorbed
by the cosmic stuff they meet in space. It is, however, not impossible
that the astronomers of the future may discover such phenomena. It
is, in fact, not impossible that we have already observed such things
without knowing it.
In any case, what observers have not done in the past they may
very well do in the future, thanks to the suggestions of the new
science. Possibly it is going to have a great effect on observational
astronomy and induce it to furnish brilliant new verifications of theory.
There may be astonishing results, unforeseen by our folly, of the new
conceptions, surpassing in their fantastic poetry the most romantic
constructions of the imagination. Reality, or at least the possible, is
rising to giddy heights that were far beyond the reach of the golden
wings of fantasy.
I spoke on a previous page of the millions of years which light
takes to travel round our curved universe. Starting from the fairly
well-ascertained value of the quantity of matter comprised in the
Milky Way, it is possible to calculate the curvature of the world and
its radius. We find that the radius has a value equal to at least
150,000,000 light-years.
It therefore takes light at least 900,000,000 years, at a speed of
186,000 miles a second, to travel round the universe, assuming that
it consists only of the Milky Way and its annexes. The figure is quite
consistent with the figures we get from astronomical observation for
the dimensions of the galactic system, and also with the much larger
figures which we find if we regard the spiral nebulæ as Milky Ways.
Thus for the Relativist the universe may be unlimited without
being infinite. As to the Pragmatist, who goes straight ahead—who
follows what he calls a straight line, or the path of light—he will get
back in the end to the body from which he started, provided that he
has time enough at his disposal. He will then say that, if that is the
nature of things, the universe is not infinite.
Hence the question of the infinity or finiteness of the universe can
be controlled by experience, and some day it will be possible to
prove whether the whole cosmos and space are Newtonian or
Einsteinian. Unfortunately, it will have to be a very long experience,
with various little practical difficulties to overcome.
We may therefore prefer not to commit ourselves without further
instructions. We may not feel ourselves obliged to choose between
the two conceptions, and we may leave the benefit of the doubt to
whichever of the two is false.
Moreover, there is perhaps a third issue: if not for the Pragmatist,

at least for the philosopher—I mean, seeing that in England physics
comes under the head of “Natural Philosophy,” for the physicist.
Here it is. If all the heavenly bodies we know belong to the Milky
Way, other and very remote universes may be inaccessible to us
because they are optically isolated from us; possibly by the
phenomena of the cosmic absorption of light, to which we have
already referred.
But this might also be due to something else which will, perhaps,
shock Relativists, but will seem to Newtonians quite possible. The
ether, the medium that transmits the luminous waves, and which
Einstein has ended by admitting once more (refusing, however, to
give it its familiar kinematic properties), and matter seem more and
more to be merely modalities. We explained this, on the strength of
the most recent physical discoveries, in a previous chapter. There is
nothing to prove that these two forms of substance are not always
associated.
Does this not give me the right to think that perhaps our whole
visible universe, our local concentration of matter, is only an isolated
clump or sphere of ether? If there is such a thing as absolute space
(which does not mean that it is accessible to us), it is independent of
ether as well as matter. In that case there would be vast empty
spaces, devoid of ether, all round our universe. Possibly other
universes palpitate beyond these; and for us such worlds would be
for ever as if they did not exist. No ray of knowledge would ever
reach us from them. Nothing could cross the black, dumb abysses
which environ our stellar island. Our glances are confined for ever
within this giant—yet too small—monad.
“Are there, then,” some will cry in astonishment, “things which
exist, yet we will never know them?” Naive pretension—to want to
embrace everything in a few cubic centimetres of grey brain-stuff!
CHAPTER VIII
SCIENCE AND REALITY
The Einsteinian absolute—Revelation by science—
Discussion of the experimental bases of Relativity—Other
possible explanations—Arguments in favour of Lorentz’s
real contraction—Newtonian space may be distinct from
absolute space—The real is a privileged form of the
possible—Two attitudes in face of the unknown.
We approach the end of our work. Has reality, seen through the
prism of science, changed its aspect with the new theories? Yes,
certainly. The Relativist theory claims to have improved the
achromatism of the prism and by this means improved the picture it
gives us of the world.
Time and space, the two poles upon which the sphere of
empirical data turned, which were believed to be unshakeable, have
been dislodged from their strong positions. Instead of them Einstein
offers us the continuum in which beings and phenomena float: four-
dimensional space-time, in which space and time are yoked
together.
But this continuum is itself only a flabby form. It has no rigidity. It
adapts itself docilely to everything. There is nothing fixed, because
there is no definite point of reference by means of which we could
distribute phenomena; because on the shores of this great ocean in
which things float there are none left of those solid rings to which
mariners once fastened their vessels.
Up to this point the theory of Relativity well deserves its name.
But now, in spite of it and its very name, there rises something which
seems to have an independent and determined existence in the
external world, an objectivity, an absolute reality. This is the “Interval”
of events, which remains constant and invariable through all the
fluctuations of things, however infinitely varied may be the points of
view and standards of reference.
From this datum, which, speaking philosophically, strangely
shares the intrinsic qualities with which the older absolute time and
absolute space were so much reproached, the whole constructive
part of Relativity, the part which leads to the splendid verifications we
described, is derived.
Thus the theory of Relativity seems to deny its origin, even its
very name, in all that makes it a useful monument of science, a
constructive tool, an instrument of discovery. It is a theory of a new
absolute: the Interval represented by the geodetics of the quadri-
dimensional universe. It is a new absolute theory. So true is it that
even in science you can build nothing on pure negation. For creation
you need affirmation.
The theory of Relativity has won brilliant victories, crowned by the
decisive sanction of facts. We have given some astonishing
instances of these in our earlier chapters. But to say that the theory
is true because it has predicted phenomena that were afterwards
verified would be to judge it from too narrowly Pragmatist a
standpoint. It would also—there is real danger in this—be to close
against the mind other paths where there are still flowers to cull. We
will not do that.
It is therefore important, in spite of its successes—nay, on
account of them—to turn the light of criticism upon the foundations of
the new doctrine. Even Cæsar, as he mounted the Capitol, had to
listen to the jokes of the soldiers round his chariot and lower his
pride. The theory of Relativity also, as it advances in all its
magnificence along the Triumphal Way, must learn that it has its
limits, perhaps its weaknesses.
But before we go further into it, before we turn the raw light upon
it, let us make one observation.
Whatever be the obscurities of physical theories, whatever be the
eternal and fated imperfection of science, one thing may be
positively laid down here: scientific truths are the best established,
the most certain, the least doubtful of all the truths we can know in
regard to the external world. If science cannot reveal to us the nature
of things in its entirety, there is nothing else that can do it as well.
The truths of sentiment, of faith, of intuition, have nothing to do with
those of science as long as they remain strictly truths of the interior
world. They are on another plane. But the moment they claim to be
measures of the external world—which would be their only cause of
weakness—they subject themselves to the material reality, to the
scientific investigation of the truth.
It is therefore nonsense to speak of a “bankruptcy of science” as
contrasted with the certainty which other disciplines may give us
respecting the external world. The bankruptcy of one would make all
the others bankrupt. When it is not a question of the intimate oasis in
which the serene realities of sentiment flourish, but of the arid and
imperfectly explored desert of the material world, the scientific facts
are the basis of all constructions. Destroy those and you destroy
everything. If you ram the ground floor of a house and bring it down,
you bring down also the upper stories.
To say the truth, it would seem that nothing here below so much
reveals the mystic presence of the divine as does the eternal and
inflexible harmony that unites phenomena, and that finds expression
in the laws of science.
Is not this science which shows us the vast universe well-
ordered, coherent, harmonious, mysteriously united, organised like a
great mute symphony, dominated by law instead of caprice, by
irrefragable rules instead of individual wills—is this not a revelation?
There you have the only means of reconciling the minds which
are devoted to external realities and those which bow to
metaphysical mystery. To talk of bankruptcy of science—if it means
anything more than to point out human weakness, which is, alas!
obvious enough—is really to calumniate that part of the divine which
is accessible to our senses, the part which science reveals.
In sum, the whole Einsteinian synthesis flows from the issue of
the Michelson experiment, or at least from a particular interpretation
of that issue.
The phenomenon of stellar aberration proves that the medium
which transmits the light of the stars to our eyes does not share the
motion of the earth as it revolves round the sun. This medium is
known to physicists as ether. Lord Kelvin, who was honoured by
being buried in Westminster Abbey not far from the tomb of Newton,
rightly regarded the existence of interstellar ether as proved as fully
as the existence of the air we breathe; for without this medium the
heat of the sun, mother and nurse of all terrestrial life, would never
reach us.
In his theory of Special Relativity, Einstein, as we saw, interprets
phenomena without introducing the ether, or at least without
introducing the kinematic properties which are usually attributed to it.
In other words, Special Relativity neither affirms nor denies the
existence of the classic ether. It ignores it.
But this indifference to or disdain of the ether disappears in the
theory of General Relativity. We saw in a previous chapter that the
trajectories of gravitating bodies and of light are directly due, on this
theory, to a special curvature and the non-Euclidean character of the
medium which lies close to massive bodies in the void—that is to
say, ether. This, therefore, though Einstein does not give it the same
kinematic properties as classic science did, becomes the substratum
of all the events in the universe. It resumes its importance, its
objective reality. It is the continuous medium in which spatio-
temporal facts evolve.
Hence in its general form, and in spite of the new kinematic
attitude which is ascribed to it, Einstein’s general theory admits the
objective existence of ether.
Stellar aberration shows that this medium is stationary relatively
to the orbital motion of the earth. The negative result of Michelson’s
experiment tends, on the contrary, to prove that it shares the earth’s
motion. The Fitzgerald-Lorentz hypothesis solves this antinomy by
admitting that the ether does not really share the earth’s motion, but
saying that all bodies suddenly displaced in it are contracted in the
direction of the movement. This contraction increases with their
velocity in the ether, which explains the negative result of the
Michelson experiment.
Lorentz’s explanation seemed to Einstein inadmissible on
account of certain improbabilities which we pointed out, and
especially because it assumes that there is in the universe a system
of privileged references which recalls Newton’s “absolute space.”
Einstein, taking his stand on the principle that all points of view are
equally relative, does not admit that there are in the universe
privileged spectators—spectators who are stationary in the ether—
who could see things as they are, whereas these things would be
deformed for every other observer.
Then, while preserving the Lorentz contraction and the formulæ
in which it is expressed, Einstein says that this contraction, while it
really exists, is only an appearance, a sort of optical illusion, due to
the fact that the light which shows us objects does not travel
instantaneously, but with a finite velocity. This spread of light follows
laws of such a nature that apparent space and time are changed in
precise accordance with the formulæ of Lorentz. That is the
foundation of Einstein’s Special Relativity.
Hence the two immediate possible explanations of the negative
result of the Michelson experiment are:
1. Moving objects are contracted in the stationary
ether, the fixed substratum of all phenomena. This
contraction is real, and it increases with the velocity of
the body relatively to the ether. That is Lorentz’s
explanation.
2. Moving objects are contracted relatively to any
observer whatsoever. This contraction is only
apparent, and is due to the laws of the propagation of
light. It increases with the velocity of the moving body
relatively to the observer. That is Einstein’s
explanation.
But there is at least one other possible explanation. It introduces
new and strange hypotheses, but they are by no means absurd.
Indeed, it is especially in physics that truth may at times seem
improbable. This explanation will show how we may account for the
result of the Michelson experiment apart from either Lorentz or
Einstein.
This third explanatory hypothesis is as follows. Every material
body bears along with it, as a sort of atmosphere, the ether that is
bound up with it. There is, in addition, a stationary ether in the
interstellar spaces; an ether insensible to the motion of the material
bodies that move in it, and which we may, to distinguish it from the
ether bound up with bodies, call the “super-ether.” This super-ether
occupies the whole of interstellar space, and near the heavenly
bodies it is superimposed upon the ether which they bear along. The
ether and the super-ether interpenetrate each other just as they
penetrate matter, and the vibrations they transmit spread
independently. When a material body sends out series of waves in
the ether which surrounds it, these move relatively to it with the
constant velocity of light. But when they have traversed the relatively
thin stratum of ether bound up with the material body, which merges
gradually in the super-ether, they spread in the latter, and it is
relatively to this that they progressively take their velocity.
It is like a boat crossing the Lake of Geneva at a certain speed.
About the middle of the lake it has this speed relatively to the narrow
current which the River Rhone makes there, and then it resumes it
relatively to the stationary lake.
In the same way the luminous rays of the stars, although they
come from bodies which are approaching or receding from us, have
the same velocity when they reach us, and this will be the common
velocity which the super-ether imposes upon them. Thus also, on the
other hand, the stellar rays that reach our telescopes will be
transmitted to us by the super-ether, without the very thin stratum of
mobile ether bound up with the earth being able to disturb their
propagation.
These hypotheses explain and reconcile all the facts: (1) the fact
of stellar aberration, because the rays which reach us from the stars
are transmitted to us unaltered by the super-ether; (2) the negative
result of the Michelson experiment, because the light which we
produce in the laboratory travels in the ether that is borne along by
the earth, where it originates; (3) the fact that, in spite of the
approach or recession of the stars, their light reaches us with the
common velocity which it had acquired in the super-ether, shortly
after it started.
However strange this explanation may seem, it is not absurd, and
it raises no insurmountable difficulty. It shows that, if the result of the
Michelson experiment is a sort of no-thoroughfare, there are other
ways out of it besides Einstein’s theory.
To resume the matter, we have offered to us three different ways
of escaping the difficulties, the apparent contradictions, involved in
our experience—the antinomy arising from aberration and the
Michelson result—and they are reduced to these alternatives:
1. The contraction of bodies by velocity is real
(Lorentz).
2. The contraction of bodies by velocity is only an
appearance due to the laws of the propagation of light
(Einstein).
3. The contraction of bodies by velocity is neither
real nor apparent: there is no such thing (hypothesis of
super-ether connected with ether).
This shows that the Einsteinian explanation of phenomena is by
no means imposed upon us by the facts, or is at least not absolutely
imposed by them to the exclusion of any other explanation.
Is it at least imposed by reason, by principles, by the evidential

character of its rational premises, or because it does not conflict with
our good sense and mental habits as the others do?
One would suppose this at first, when one compares it with the
teaching of Lorentz; and, in order to relieve this discussion, I will for
the moment leave out of account the third theory which I sketched,
that of a super-ether.
What seemed most difficult to admit in Lorentz’s hypothesis of
real contraction was that the contraction of bodies was supposed to
depend entirely upon their velocity, not in any way upon their nature;
that it was supposed to be the same for all bodies, no matter what
was their chemical composition or physical condition.
A little reflexion shows that this strange suggestion is not so
clearly inadmissible. We know that the atoms are all formed of the
same electrons, and they differ, and differentiate bodies, only in their
number and arrangement. If, then, the electrons common to all
matter and their relative distances experience simultaneously a
contraction due to velocity, it is natural enough to suppose that the
result maybe the same for all objects. When an iron grating of a
given length is dilated by heat, the extent to which a temperature of a
hundred degrees dilates it will be the same whether it counts ten or a
hundred steel bars to the square yard, provided they are identical.
Hence it is not really here that we find the improbability which
caused Relativists to reject the Lorentz theory. It is in the principles
of the theory. It is because the theory admits in nature a system of
privileged reference—the stationary ether relatively to which bodies
move.
Let us examine this more closely. It has been said that Lorentz’s
stationary ether is merely a resuscitation of Newton’s absolute
space, which the Relativists have so vigorously attacked. That is
very far from the truth. If, as we supposed in the preceding chapter,
our stellar universe is only a giant globe of ether rolling in a space
that is devoid of ether—one of many such globes that will remain for
ever unknowable to man—it is obvious that the drop of ether which
represents our universe may very well be moving in the environing
space, which would then be the real “absolute space.”
From this standpoint the Lorentzian ether cannot be identified
with absolute space. To do so amounts to saying that the space
called “absolute” by Newton does not deserve the name. If
Newtonian space is only the physical continuum in which the events
of our universe happen, it is anything but stationary.
In that case the whole fault one has to find with Newton is that he
used a wrong expression: that he called something absolute which is
merely privileged for a given universe. It would be a quarrel about
grammar; and such things have never succeeded in revolutionising
science.
But the Relativists—at least those impenitent Relativists, the
Einsteinians—will not be content with that. It is not enough for them
that the Newtonian space with all its privileges may not be absolute
space.
Our conception of the universe, as a moving island of ether, is
well calculated to reconcile the pre-eminence of Newtonian space
with that agnosticism which forbids us to hope to attain the absolute.
But this again is not enough for the Einsteinians. What they mean to
do is to strip of all its privileges the Newtonian space on which the
structure of classical mechanics has been reared. They mean to
reduce this space to the ranks, to make it no more than analogous to
any other spaces that can be imagined and which move arbitrarily in
reference to it.
From the agnostic, the sceptical, point of view this is a fine and
strong attitude. But in the course of this volume we have so much
admired Einstein’s powerful theoretical synthesis and the surprising
verifications to which it led that we are now entitled to make some
reserves. It is legitimate to call into question even the denials of
doubters, because, after all, they are really themselves affirmations.
We believe that in face of this philosophic attitude of the
Einsteinians—in face of what I should like to call their absolute
relativism—we are justified in rebelling a little and saying something
like this:
“Yes, everything is possible; or, rather, many things are possible,
but all things are not. Yes, if I go into a strange house, the drawing-
room clock may be round, square, or octagonal. But once I have
entered the house and seen that the clock is square, I have a right to
say: ‘The clock is square. It has the privilege of being square. It is a
fact that it is neither round nor octagonal.’
“It is the same in nature. The physical continuum which contains,
like a vase, all the phenomena of the universe, might have, relatively
to me—and as long as I have not observed it—any forms or
movements whatever. But as a matter of fact, it is what it is. It cannot
be different things at the same time. The drawing-room clock cannot
at one and the same time be composed entirely of gold and entirely
of silver.
“There is therefore one privileged possibility amongst the various
possibilities which we imagine in the external world. It is that which
has been effectively realised: that which exists.”
The complete relativism of the Einsteinians amounts to making
the universe external to us to such an extent that we have no means
of distinguishing between what is real and what is possible in it, as
far as space and time are concerned. The Newtonians, on the other
hand, say that we can recognise real space and real time by special
signs. We will analyse these signs later.
In a word, the pure Relativists have tried to escape the necessity
of supposing that reality is inaccessible. It is a point of view that is at
once more modest and much more presumptuous than that of the
Newtonians, the Absolutists.
It is more modest because according to the Einsteinian we
cannot know certain things which the Absolutist regards as
accessible: real time and space. It is more presumptuous because
the Relativist says that there is no reality except that which comes
under observation. For him the unknowable and non-existent are the
same thing. That is why Henri Poincaré, who was the most profound
of Relativists before the days of Einstein, used to repeat constantly
that questions about absolute space and time have “no meaning.”
One might sum it up by saying that the Einsteinians have taken
as their motto the words of Auguste Comte: “Everything is relative,

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