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 Chapter 7-Basic Concepts of Probability
7.1 Views of probability:
a) Analytic—If two tennis players are exactly equally skillful so that the outcome
of their match is random, the probability is .50 that Player A will win the
upcoming match.
b) Relative Frequency—If in past matches Player A has beaten Player B on 13 of
the 17 occasions they have played, then, unless something has changed, Player
A has a probability of 13/17 = .76 of winning their upcoming match.
c) Subjective—Player A’s coach feels that she has a probability of .90 of
winning her upcoming match with Player B.

7.2 Raffle tickets:

a) The probability that you will win is 1/1000 = .001.
b) The probability that your mother will win is also 1/1000 = .001.
c) The probability that one of you will win is 2/1000 = .002.

7.3 More raffle tickets:

a) The probability winning second prize given that you did not win first is 1/999
= .001.
b) The probability that mom comes in first and you are second = 1/1000 * 1/999
= .000001.
c) The probability of you first and mom second = 1/1000 * 1/999 = .000001
d) The probability that the two of you will take the top two prizes is .000001 +
.000001 = .000002.

7.4 Parts b), c), and d) of Exercise 7.3 dealt with joint probabilities.

7.5 Part a) of Exercise 7.3 dealt with conditional probabilities.

7.6 An example of a joint probability is the probability that your town will decide to
have a fireworks display this summer and that it will rain on that night.

7.7 What is the probability that you will feel better about your life given that you seek
psychological counseling? The research hypothesis is that those who seek help when they
need it feel better about life than those who refuse to seek help.

7.8 The probability that the mother will be looking at the child is 2/24 = .083. The
probability that the child will look at the mother is 3/24 = .125. The probability that they
will look at each other at the same time is .083*.125 = .01.

Point out to students that this uses the multiplicative law applied to
independent events. The answer would not be correct if the probabilities

50
 are not independent—e.g. if mom looks because the kid is trying to get her
attention.

7.9 The mother and child are both sleeping for 11 hours, so the probabilities must be
based on the remaining 13 hours.

p(mom looking) = 2/13 = .154; p(baby looking) = 3/13 = .231; p(both looking) =
.154*.231 = .036.

7.10 To calculate the probability of an accident given that the driver has been drinking,
we would have to collect a very large pool of drivers who have been drinking (having
first determined how to define that), and then count the number who are involved in an
accident (again carefully defined).

7.11 We would expect 3.33 percent of the fliers to end up in the trash if the message and
the behavior were independent. In fact, Geller et al. found 4.5 percent of those fliers in
the trash. This may look like a very small difference, but given the number of fliers that
were handed out, it is a reliable one. It would appear that having a message on a flier
increases its probability of being disposed of properly.

7.12 A continuous distribution for which we care about the probability of an

observation’s falling in a prescribed interval is exemplified by the probability that your
baby will be born on the date it is due.

7.13 A continuous variable that is routinely treated as if it were discrete is children’s

learning abilities, where placement in classes often assumes that the child falls within one
category or another.

7.14 Two examples of discrete variables are your final letter grade in this course, and the
number of siblings you have.

7.15 If we assume that we know nothing about the applicant, the probability of their
being admitted is the probability that they fall above the 80th percentile (which equals
.20) times the probability that they will be admitted if they do, which is 10/100 = .10. The
probability is .20*.10 = .02. Alternatively, we know that 10 out of 500 are admitted, so
we could take the probability as being 10/500 = .02, which is the same thing.

7.16 Admissions to graduate school continued:

a) If the person has the highest rating, she is by definition above the 80th
percentile. The probability of her being admitted is 10/100 = .10.
b) If she has the lowest rating she will not exceed the 80th percentile, so the
probability that she will be admitted is .00.

7.17 ADDSC N = 88 X = 52.6 s = 12.42 [calculated from data set]

50  52.6
z  0.21
12.42

51
 The probability associated with z = -.21 is .5832.

7.18 ADDSC–males only N = 55 X = 54.29 s = 12.90

50  54.29
z  0.33
12.90
The probability associated with this score is .6293.

7.19 Dropouts with ADDSC > 60:

p(dropout|ADDSC > 60) = 7/25 = .28

7.20 Compare the probability of dropping out of school, ignoring the ADDSC score,
with the probability of dropping out given that ADDSC in elementary school exceeded
some value (e.g., 66).

7.21 Conditional and unconditional probability of dropping out:

p(dropout) = 10/88 = .11
p(dropout|ADDSC > 60) = .28
Students are much more likely to drop out of school if they scored at or above
ADDSC = 60 in elementary school.

7.22 Probability statements about the treatment of car buyers:

Simple Probability The probability that the salesperson will make a

condescending remark is .15.
Joint Probability The probability that the salesperson will make a
condescending remark and that the customer is a
woman is .10
Conditional Probability The probability that the salesperson will make a
condescending remark given that the customer is a
woman is .25

7.23 If there is no discrimination in housing, then a person’s race and whether or not
they are offered a particular unit of housing are independent events. We could calculate
the probability that a particular unit (or a unit in a particular section of the city) will be
offered to anyone in a specific income group. We can also calculate the probability that
the customer is a member of an ethnic minority. We can then calculate the probability of
that person being shown the unit assuming independence and compare that answer
against the actual proportion of times a member of an ethnic minority was offered such a
unit.

7.24 This is an Internet activity in which there is no fixed answer.

7.25 The data again would appear to show that the U. S. Attorneys are more likely to
request the death penalty when the victim was White than when the victim was Non-
white. (This finding is statistically significant, though we won’t address that question

52
until Chapter 19.)

7.26 The risks are given in the table of Exercise 7.25. The probability that the U. S.
attorney would seek the death penalty when the victim was white is .726, whereas it is
only .630 when the victim is non-white. The risk ratio would be 1.15, indicating that the
probability of seeking the death penalty is higher when the victim is white. The odds are
202/76 = 2.66, and 388/228 = 1.70, and the odds ratio is 2.66/1.70 = 1.56, meaning that
the odds of facing the death penalty are 1.56 times greater when the victim was white.

7.27 In this situation we begin with the hypothesis that African Americans are fairly
represented in the pool. If so, we would expect 0.43% of the pool of 2124 people from
which juries are drawn are African American. That comes out to be an expectation of
9.13 people. But the pool actually only had 4 African Americans. We would not expect
exactly 9 people—we might have 7 or 8. But 4 sounds awfully small That is such an
unlikely event if the pool is fair that we would probably conclude that the pool is not a
fair representation of the population of Vermont. An important point here is that this is a
conditional probability. If the pool is fair the probability of this event is only .05—an
unlikely result.

Examples, Data Sets, and Suggestions

7.1 Students have a lot of trouble coming to terms with exactly what we mean by
“probability.” Perhaps that’s because we, their instructors, have similar problems. A nice
discussion of probability can be started by asking what Steven Hawking meant when he
said that “Statisticians have determined that if you buy a national Lottery ticket on a
Monday, you are 2500 times more likely to die before the Saturday draw than land the
jackpot." Some relevant questions about this statement can be found at
http://www.uvm.edu/~dhowell/StatPages/More_Stuff/ProbStuff.html.

7.2 There is a very good collection of articles related to probability at

http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/course/topics/probability.html. They offer a nice
way of showing that probability isn’t just stuff that nerds like. There are some really
interesting questions that we can ask, and hopefully answer.

7.3 AIDS testing is a topic of considerable importance to students—at least it should be.
There is a wealth of information on the web that instructors or students can search out to
bring probability issues alive. A good place to begin is
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/course/Syllabi/UCSD/section3_3.html. The
following is a short excerpt taken from that site. It is a great way to get students to see
some simple probabilities. It also allows them to work with conditional probabilities in
an unusual way.

“As reported in CHANCE magazine, in June of 1987 (former) Secretary of Health

and Human Services Otis Bowen suggested taking blood samples from 45,000
randomly selected Americans and testing for the presence of HIV antibodies.

53
 “1. Suppose that if a person has the antibodies, the probability of a positive test
is 99.9%, and that if the person does not have the antibodies the probability of a
negative test is 99%. Assume that 1.5 million out of 250 million Americans have
HIV antibodies. If a subject tests positive for the HIV antibodies, what is the
probability that he or she actually has HIV antibodies?

“2. Should there be mandatory HIV testing? For whom?”

7.4 Exercise 7.24 was specifically designed to get students thinking about probability.
You can use it as the basis of a class discussion.

7.5 We often see conspiracy theories in the news about the assassination of President
Kennedy or some other public figure. Recently someone posted a note to Edstat-L (or
sci.stat.edu) concerning a book he was reading. The author of the book had listed 15
things that were “wrong” about the Kennedy assassination, ranging from cars out of order
in the motorcade to motorcycles out of position and a lack of immediate response by
officials. The writer of the message was concerned about the use of statistics. He wrote
“(The book’s author) then goes on to state this could not be merely "bad luck" and
assigns each "(indicator)...an improbability of 1 in 10 to their occurrence by chance. He
goes on to … suppose each (is) an independent event but (and I'll quote him directly)
‘...if we take only eight or nine of these events, their improbability of occurring by
chance is only 1 in 100,000,000 to 1 in 1,000,000,000, (and) hypotheses in science are
rejected when their improbability equals or exceeds 1 in 20.’”

This offers a wonderful opportunity to help students see:

1. the difficulty of assigning probabilities to individual events.
2. the importance of the assumption of independent events.
3. the wonderful conclusions you can come up with if you just set aside the rules of
probability and let your mind wander.

7.6 For an interesting example of the use of conditional probability, see

http://www.archive.official-documents.co.uk/document/doh/sddyp/sddyp13.htm . This
article contains data on smoking, drinking, and drug use behavior among girls and boys.
It leads nicely to the question of hypothesis testing in the next chapter, and chi-square in
Chapter 19.

7.7 I chose to use data on the death penalty for the last two exercises because I wanted
students to see that things like risk and odds ratios are not just for “boring stuff” like the
risk of lung cancer—which most students are sure that they will never get. There is a
wealth of data on the Internet, but I have relied on official reports and research studies
because of the continued controversy.

54
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