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(download pdf) Purchasing And Supply Chain Management 5th Edition Monczka Solutions Manual full chapter
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Case 7 Email Exercise- Instructor Guide
Golden Elephant risk assessment.
So now we have gone through all of the different components of supplier risk. Further, we have
identified the method of identifying the revenue impact. Based on this information, you are now
ready to perform a supply risk evaluation. This means going through and conducting a thorough
evaluation on all forms of supply risk for a particular supplier, and mapping that risk relative to the
financial impact associated with that risk.
Consider the following email that was sent to you by a Global Procurement Office representative
from you satellite office located in New Delhi, who is passing on information he has received on
shipping conditions in a major shipping channel. Based on the facts provided by this individual,
complete a supply risk evaluation, and estimate the dollar impact associated with this supplier. If
there is no information available for a particular variable in the model, enter a “1”, meaning that it
does not pose a significant risk.
Victor,
I was following up on your request to explore sourcing from a castings supplier located in India. I
have identified a suitable candidate, the Golden Elephant castings company. As you stated, this is an
important decision, as this supplier will be a single source providing castings for your entire new line
of product in the C-series. As you know, the C-series forecast is $50M in revenue during the first
year, and growing to $75 M in the second year. Based on your process specifications, this is the only
available castings supplier in our supply base with the required heat treat ovens capable of meeting
your specifications as well as the cost and price targets you specified. Essentially, this supplier has
the lock on this business for the C-series. He seems to know this.
We visited the supplier’s location, and were greeted by the company’s owner. He was very pleased
with the results that our negotiating team came to terms with, and afterwards gloated with some
pleasure that this was going to be a very profitable business deal for Golden Elephant. He noted that
the firm was under new management as of six months ago, and that he was taking over management
of the factory from the previous owner, who had sold out and gone into retirement. Upon taking a
tour of the facility, we found it was well-lit, and workers seemed to know what they were doing. In
private, the owner told us that he felt these workers were overpaid, but that he was trying to keep
labor costs below the average for New Delhi, and tried to keep his workers in the dark. We did not
see evidence of any statistical quality control charts but the owner assured us that workers were
well-trained in these methods. The owner also noted that they are anxious for this business, as this
will represent an order that will double their current business volume. We met with some of their
technical engineers, and they seemed very young. In fact, one of them shared with us that he had
just started the day before, and was replacing someone who had lasted only two months in that role.
We met with their purchasing group. Their offices was full of paper piled up high to the ceiling, and
they emphasized how busy they were processing PO’s with their vendors. When we asked who their
primary steel supplier were, we were told that they liked to shop around for the cheapest price, and
rarely bought any steel except at spot prices through intensive negotiations. They also noted that
there had been some problems in getting steel in some cases, due to the recent shortages being
driven by the high demand for steel.
We then identified how shipments would get to your factory location in Omaha, NE. Golden Elephant
will arrange for in-land transportation, as the owner’s brother-in-law has a trucking company. The
shipment would then go through the Indian port. There have been some rumors of union problems
with the dockworkers at this location, but our sources believe that this is only a rumor. Once the
shipment arrives in the port of Los Angeles, it will be unloaded, put onto a trailer, and driven the
Omaha location. We are still waiting on quotes for shipment times, as the recent hike in fuel prices
means the shipping companies will not commit to a firm trans-oceanic shipping cost. This is the
first time this supplier has exported product to the United States, but the owner has assured me
that his administrative assistant has worked on shipping documentation in her former job, so this
shouldn’t be a problem.
Anil
One possible set of evaluations is shown below. These evaluations might reflect a “typical”
set of scores associated with this scenario. There are clearly a number of significant risks associated
in working with this supplier.
Average Score 4
ABOVE BELOW
AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE
Supply Disruption Risks 1 2 3 4 5
The supplier is subject to major
changes in the cost of their raw
materials in the market. 4
There is a high probability this
supplier may have a raw material
shortage resulting in a supply
disruption. 4
This supplier has a single source,
and is entirely dependent on this
source for a major raw material or
service. 2
There is a high probability this
supplier may experience a quality
problem resulting in a supply
disruption. 5
There is a high probability this
supplier may experience a capacity
problem resulting in a supply
disruption. 5
There is a high probability that this
supplier may experience a disaster-
related or other force majeure
disruption. 5
There is a high probability this
supplier may experience a shut-down
due to a government agency
regulation. 2
This supplier is in a geographic
region that is highly unstable and
may result in a supply disruption. 3
This supplier does NOT have a good
Risk Reduction and Business
Continuity Plan. 4
Average Score 3.77777778
ABOVE BELOW
AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE
Financial Risk 1 2 3 4 5
The supplier's business rate of
growth is sustainable (not growing
too fast, nor shrinking too quickly). 4
The supplier's overall financial
performance and risk compared to
competitors. 5
The supplier's overall level of
customer satisfaction in the industry. 3
The supplier's level of profitability
compared to the industry. 4
The supplier's accounts receivable
are at a reasonable level compared
to the industry (e.g. less than 60
days). 2
The supplier's account payables are
at a reasonable level compared to
the industry (e.g. less than 60 days). 2 4
The supplier's level of debt is at a
level that is considered reasonable in
the industry. 2 5
Average Score 3.44444444
Next, we combine these assessments to develop a Risk Probability Score, as an input into a Supplier
Risk Matrix. The logic used to do so is shown below.
To illustrate, we use the evaluation of the Golden Elephant Castings company here:
Combining all of these factors, this supplier is likely to result in a severe supplier disruption of some
form. That is, the likelihood that one of these factors will result in an unexpected quality problem,
shipment delay, or cost overrun is high (probably on the order of almost 68%). This will occur at a
major bottleneck in the supply chain, with no alternative suppliers identified, which has the potential
to bring this organization’s entire new product line rollout to a screeching halt, and could result in up
to $50M in lost revenue for the new C-series product line.
Creating a Supplier Risk Matrix with Multiple Suppliers
The matrix shown is not all that meaningful however. Moreover, we applied a set of baseline
assumptions and estimates to derive a risk probability of 68%, which is probably not very precise.
However, as we noted earlier, the meaning of this score becomes much more apparent when it is
compared to other suppliers who are also part of a general category of products and services. In this
example, let’s look at all of the suppliers of castings and finished steel components that are currently
used by your organization. Then let’s assume that we have completed risk analyses on all of them,
which would lead us to the following supplier risk map:
Golden ElephantSumo Alchem Superior Minivan Locomotive Mynord Nexcor Ballinger Conchord
65% 55% 25% 88% 78% 18% 84% 61% 42% 92%
$50,000,000 $ 40,000,000 $ 20,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 4,000,000 $ 99,982,004 $ 83,222,998 $ 26,000,000 $ 22,000,000 $ 93,548,996
As shown in this risk map, Golden Elephant now falls into the “yellow category”, in that they are
clustered along with other suppliers who have a medium risk profile, but a sizable impact. Other
suppliers such as Locomotive have a high potential impact, but a low risk score (23%), so are a safer
bet. Others such as Superior and Minivan have a higher risk, but a lower impact. However, the
highest potential for disruption in this case is likely to come from a handful of suppliers. In this case,
Conchord has a 92% probability of a disruption, and could impact close to $94M in revenue.
Similarly, Mynord has an 84% risk probability with a $84M revenue impact.
This type of analysis then leads to the next logical discussion: what can your organization do to
mitigate or reduce risk?
SLIDE 31 – Factors that Can Reduce Supply Chain Risk and
Reduce the Impact of Disruptions
Once a supply management organizations has narrowed down their list of potential risk incident nodes
to a manageable set, the next task is to prioritize actions to mitigate and manage these risks. The
probability of disruptive events can be controlled for in some cases by remedies, but in other cases,
when significant amplifiers are present, may not be possible. Therefore, executives must seek to
reduce the impact through various approaches. This is shown in the second and third steps of our risk
mitigation process below.
3a. Excess
Resources
3b. SC
1. Map the Supply Chain & 2. Identify Risk Collaboration &
Measure the Risk Reduction Planning
of Critical Nodes in Mechanisms for
the Network High-Risk 3c. Invest in
Nodes Visibility
Systems
3d. Major
GOAL: Supply Chain
Resilient Redesign
Supply Chain
With On-going
Knowledge and
Risk Mitigation
A variety of different risk reduction mechanisms are employed by companies, to reduce the risk
probabilities of suppliers and supply chain nodes. A full list is shown in Table 3. These mechanisms
can be classified into several categories. To first understand these categories, consider the impact of a
disruption and the approach to deal with it is shown below.
Disruption Discovery
and Recovery time (B)
Disruption Discovery
and Recovery time (A)
Excess Resources
Impact(A)
Visibility Systems
Once they have identified “high risk” nodes, executives have several risk reduction strategies
they can use to eliminate the impact of disruptions on the end customer. The elements of risk
reduction are as follows:
1) Excess resources reduces the time between disruption discovery and recovery,
2) Supply Chain Planning and Collaboration ensures that the design of the supply chain is made
more robust to reduce the probability of these events occurring again.
3) Improved information visibility reduces the time between the disruption and its discovery,
and reduces the impact of the disruption.
4) Supply Chain Redesign involves a significant investment in product or process redesign to
reduce risk.
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more elaborate relations, but form a comparatively permanent
source out of which the latter are ever springing. Of course they are
not independent of the larger society, but to some extent reflect its
spirit; as the German family and the German school bear somewhat
distinctly the print of German militarism. But this, after all, is like the
tide setting back into creeks, and does not commonly go very far.
Among the German, and still more among the Russian, peasantry
are found habits of free coöperation and discussion almost
uninfluenced by the character of the state; and it is a familiar and
well-supported view that the village commune, self-governing as
regards local affairs and habituated to discussion, is a very
widespread institution in settled communities, and the continuator of
a similar autonomy previously existing in the clan. “It is man who
makes monarchies and establishes republics, but the commune
seems to come directly from the hand of God.”[9]
In our own cities the crowded tenements and the general
economic and social confusion have sorely wounded the family and
the neighborhood, but it is remarkable, in view of these conditions,
what vitality they show; and there is nothing upon which the
conscience of the time is more determined than upon restoring them
to health.
These groups, then, are springs of life, not only for the individual
but for social institutions. They are only in part moulded by special
traditions, and, in larger degree, express a universal nature. The
religion or government of other civilizations may seem alien to us,
but the children or the family group wear the common life, and with
them we can always make ourselves at home.
By human nature, I suppose, we may understand those
sentiments and impulses that are human in being superior to those
of lower animals, and also in the sense that they belong to mankind
at large, and not to any particular race or time. It means, particularly,
sympathy and the innumerable sentiments into which sympathy
enters, such as love, resentment, ambition, vanity, hero-worship, and
the feeling of social right and wrong.[10]
Human nature in this sense is justly regarded as a comparatively
permanent element in society. Always and everywhere men seek
honor and dread ridicule, defer to public opinion, cherish their goods
and their children, and admire courage, generosity, and success. It is
always safe to assume that people are and have been human.
It is true, no doubt, that there are differences of race capacity, so
great that a large part of mankind are possibly incapable of any high
kind of social organization. But these differences, like those among
individuals of the same race, are subtle, depending upon some
obscure intellectual deficiency, some want of vigor, or slackness of
moral fibre, and do not involve unlikeness in the generic impulses of
human nature. In these all races are very much alike. The more
insight one gets into the life of savages, even those that are
reckoned the lowest, the more human, the more like ourselves, they
appear. Take for instance the natives of Central Australia, as
described by Spencer and Gillen,[11] tribes having no definite
government or worship and scarcely able to count to five. They are
generous to one another, emulous of virtue as they understand it,
kind to their children and to the aged, and by no means harsh to
women. Their faces as shown in the photographs are wholly human
and many of them attractive.
And when we come to a comparison between different stages in
the development of the same race, between ourselves, for instance,
and the Teutonic tribes of the time of Cæsar, the difference is neither
in human nature nor in capacity, but in organization, in the range and
complexity of relations, in the diverse expression of powers and
passions essentially much the same.
There is no better proof of this generic likeness of human nature
than in the ease and joy with which the modern man makes himself
at home in literature depicting the most remote and varied phases of
life—in Homer, in the Nibelung tales, in the Hebrew Scriptures, in the
legends of the American Indians, in stories of frontier life, of soldiers
and sailors, of criminals and tramps, and so on. The more
penetratingly any phase of human life is studied the more an
essential likeness to ourselves is revealed.
To return to primary groups: the view here maintained is that
human nature is not something existing separately in the individual,
but a group-nature or primary phase of society, a relatively simple
and general condition of the social mind. It is something more, on the
one hand, than the mere instinct that is born in us—though that
enters into it—and something less, on the other, than the more
elaborate development of ideas and sentiments that makes up
institutions. It is the nature which is developed and expressed in
those simple, face-to-face groups that are somewhat alike in all
societies; groups of the family, the playground, and the
neighborhood. In the essential similarity of these is to be found the
basis, in experience, for similar ideas and sentiments in the human
mind. In these, everywhere, human nature comes into existence.
Man does not have it at birth; he cannot acquire it except through
fellowship, and it decays in isolation.
If this view does not recommend itself to common-sense I do not
know that elaboration will be of much avail. It simply means the
application at this point of the idea that society and individuals are
inseparable phases of a common whole, so that wherever we find an
individual fact we may look for a social fact to go with it. If there is a
universal nature in persons there must be something universal in
association to correspond to it.
What else can human nature be than a trait of primary groups?
Surely not an attribute of the separate individual—supposing there
were any such thing—since its typical characteristics, such as
affection, ambition, vanity, and resentment, are inconceivable apart
from society. If it belongs, then, to man in association, what kind or
degree of association is required to develop it? Evidently nothing
elaborate, because elaborate phases of society are transient and
diverse, while human nature is comparatively stable and universal. In
short the family and neighborhood life is essential to its genesis and
nothing more is.
Here as everywhere in the study of society we must learn to see
mankind in psychical wholes, rather than in artificial separation. We
must see and feel the communal life of family and local groups as
immediate facts, not as combinations of something else. And
perhaps we shall do this best by recalling our own experience and
extending it through sympathetic observation. What, in our life, is the
family and the fellowship; what do we know of the we-feeling?
Thought of this kind may help us to get a concrete perception of that
primary group-nature of which everything social is the outgrowth.
FOOTNOTES:
[6] The History of Human Marriage.
[7] A History of Matrimonial Institutions.
[8] Newer Ideals of Peace, 177.
[9] De Tocqueville, Democracy in America, vol. i, chap. 5.
[10] These matters are expounded at some length in the
writer’s Human Nature and the Social Order.
[11] The Native Tribes of Central Australia. Compare also
Darwin’s views and examples given in chap. 7 of his Descent of
Man.
CHAPTER IV
PRIMARY IDEALS
FOOTNOTES:
[12] Thoreau, A Week on the Concord and Merrimack Rivers,
283.
[13] Charities and the Commons, Aug. 3, 1907.
[14]
Antica lupa,
Che più che tutte l’altre bestie hai preda.
Purgatorio, XX, 10.
[15] 1 Samuel, 15:33.
[16] Vol. i, 540 ff.
[17] The City Wilderness, 116.
[18] Boys’ Self-Governing Clubs, 4, 5.
[19] Charities and the Commons, Aug. 3. 1907, abridged.
[20] John Graham Brooks, The Social Unrest, 135.
[21] The City Wilderness, 113.
CHAPTER V
THE EXTENSION OF PRIMARY IDEALS