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Brief Contents
v
Contents
Preface xiii
vi
Chapter 5 Goods and Financial Markets: Chapter 7 Putting All Markets Together:
The IS-LM Model 85 The AS–AD Model 133
5-1 The Goods Market and the IS 7-1 Aggregate Supply 134
Relation 86 7-2 Aggregate Demand 136
Investment, Sales, and the Interest 7-3 Equilibrium in the Short Run and in
Rate 86 • Determining Output 87 •
the Medium Run 139
Deriving the IS Curve 89 • Shifts of
the IS Curve 89 Equilibrium in the Short Run 139 • From
the Short Run to the Medium Run 140
5-2 Financial Markets and the LM
7-4 The Effects of a Monetary
Relation 90
Expansion 142
Real Money, Real Income, and
the Interest Rate 90 • Deriving the The Dynamics of Adjustment 142 •
LM Curve 91 • Shifts of the LM Going Behind the Scenes 143 • The
Curve 92 Neutrality of Money 144
5-3 Putting the IS and the LM Relations 7-5 A Decrease in the Budget
Together 93 Deficit 146
Fiscal Policy, Activity, and the Interest Deficit Reduction, Output, and the
Rate 94 • Monetary Policy, Activity, and Interest Rate 147 • Budget Deficits,
the Interest Rate 96 Output, and Investment 148
5-4 Using a Policy Mix 98 7-6 An Increase in the Price of Oil 149
Effects on the Natural Rate of
5-5 How Does the IS-LM Model Fit the
Unemployment 150 • The Dynamics of
Facts? 102 Adjustment 151
Appendix: An Alternative Derivation 7-7 Conclusions 154
of the LM Relation as an Interest Rate The Short Run versus the Medium
Rule 107 Run 154 • Shocks and Propagation
Mechanisms 155 • Where We Go from
The Medium Run 109 Here 156
Chapter 6 The Labor Market 111 Chapter 8 The Phillips Curve, the Natural
6-1 A Tour of the Labor Market 112 Rate of Unemployment, and
The Large Flows of Workers 112 Inflation 161
6-2 Movements in Unemployment 115 8-1 Inflation, Expected Inflation, and
6-3 Wage Determination 117 Unemployment 162
Bargaining 118 • Efficiency 8-2 The Phillips Curve 164
Wages 119 • Wages, Prices, and The Early Incarnation 164 •
Unemployment 120 • The Expected Mutations 164 • The Phillips
Price Level 120 • The Unemployment Curve and the Natural Rate of
Rate 121 • The Other Factors 121 Unemployment 169 • The Neutrality
6-4 Price Determination 122 of Money, Revisited 171
Contents vii
Chapter 9 The Crisis 183 11-3 Getting a Sense of Magnitudes 238
9-1 From a Housing Problem to a The Effects of the Saving Rate on
Steady-State Output 238 • The
Financial Crisis 184
Dynamic Effects of an Increase in the
Housing Prices and Subprime Saving Rate 239 • The U.S. Saving Rate
Mortgages 184 • The Role of and the Golden Rule 241
Banks 185
11-4 Physical versus Human
9-2 The Use and Limits of Policy 189
Capital 242
Initial Policy Responses 191 • The
Extending the Production
Limits of Monetary Policy: The Liquidity
Function 242 • Human Capital, Physical
Trap 192 • The Limits of Fiscal Policy:
Capital, and Output 243 • Endogenous
High Debt 196
Growth 244
9-3 The Slow Recovery 196
Appendix: The Cobb-Douglas Production
Function and the Steady State 247
viii Contents
13-3 Technological Progress, Churning, and Economic Activity 325 • A
and Distribution Effects 276 Monetary Expansion and the Stock
Market 326 • An Increase in Consumer
The Increase in Wage Inequality 279 •
Spending and the Stock Market 327
The Causes of Increased Wage
Inequality 279 15-3 Risk, Bubbles, Fads, and Asset
13-4 Institutions, Technological Progress, Prices 328
and Growth 281 Stock Prices and Risk 328 • Asset
Prices, Fundamentals, and Bubbles 330
Contents ix
Goods 382 • Nominal Exchange 20-4 The Effects of Policy in an Open
Rates 382 • From Nominal to Real Economy 431
Exchange Rates 383 • From Bilateral to
The Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Open
Multilateral Exchange Rates 387
Economy 431 • The Effects of Monetary
18-2 Openness in Financial Markets 388 Policy in an Open Economy 433
The Balance of Payments 389 • The 20-5 Fixed Exchange Rates 435
Choice between Domestic and Foreign
Pegs, Crawling Pegs, Bands, the
Assets 391 • Interest Rates and
EMS, and the Euro 435 • Pegging
Exchange Rates 393
the Exchange Rate, and Monetary
18-3 Conclusions and a Look Ahead 395 Control 436 • Fiscal Policy under Fixed
Exchange Rates 437
Chapter 19 The Goods Market in an Open
Economy 399 Appendix: Fixed Exchange Rates, Interest
Rates, and Capital Mobility 442
19-1 The IS Relation in the Open
Economy 400 Chapter 21 Exchange Rate Regimes 445
The Demand for Domestic Goods 400 • 21-1 The Medium Run 446
The Determinants of C, I and G 400 • Aggregate Demand under Fixed
The Determinants of Imports 401 • The Exchange Rates 447 • Equilibrium
Determinants of Exports 401 • Putting in the Short Run and in the Medium
the Components Together 401 Run 448 • The Case For and Against a
19-2 Equilibrium Output and the Trade Devaluation 450
Balance 403 21-2 Exchange Rate Crises under Fixed
19-3 Increases in Demand, Domestic or Exchange Rates 451
Foreign 404 21-3 Exchange Rate Movements under
Increases in Domestic Demand 404 • Flexible Exchange Rates 455
Increases in Foreign Demand 406 • Exchange Rates and the Current
Fiscal Policy Revisited 407 Account 457 • Exchange Rates
19-4 Depreciation, the Trade Balance, and Current and Future Interest
and Output 409 Rates 457 • Exchange Rate
Depreciation and the Trade Balance: Volatility 457
The Marshall-Lerner Condition 410 • 21-4 Choosing between Exchange Rate
The Effects of a Depreciation 410 • Regimes 459
Combining Exchange Rate and Fiscal Common Currency Areas 459 • Hard
Policies 411 Pegs, Currency Boards, and
19-5 Looking at Dynamics: The Dollarization 462
J-Curve 413 Appendix 1: Deriving Aggregate
19-6 Saving, Investment, and the Current Demand under Fixed Exchange
Account Balance 415 Rates 467
Appendix: Derivation of the Marshall- Appendix 2: The Real Exchange Rate
Lerner Condition 421 and Domestic and Foreign Real Interest
Rates 468
Chapter 20 Output, the Interest Rate, and the
Exchange Rate 423
20-1 Equilibrium in the Goods
Market 424
Back to Policy 471
20-2 Equilibrium in Financial Chapter 22 Should Policy Makers Be
Markets 425 Restrained? 473
Money versus Bonds 425 • Domestic 22-1 Uncertainty and Policy 474
Bonds versus Foreign Bonds 426 How Much Do Macroeconomists
20-3 Putting Goods and Financial Actually Know? 474 • Should
Markets Together 428
x Contents
Uncertainty Lead Policy Makers to Do 24-3 The Design of Monetary Policy 524
Less? 477 • Uncertainty and Restraints Money Growth Targets and Target
on Policy Makers 477 Ranges 525 • Inflation Targeting 526 •
22-2 Expectations and Policy 478 Interest Rate Rules 529
Hostage Takings and Negotiations 479 • 24-4 Challenges from the Crisis 530
Inflation and Unemployment The Liquidity Trap 530 • Macro
Revisited 479 • Establishing Prudential Regulation 532
Credibility 480 • Time Consistency and
Restraints on Policy Makers 482 Chapter 25 Epilogue: The Story of
22-3 Politics and Policy 482
Macroeconomics 539
Games between Policy Makers and 25-1 Keynes and the Great
Voters 483 • Games between Policy Depression 540
Makers 484 • Politics and Fiscal 25-2 The Neoclassical Synthesis 540
Restraints 485 Progress on All Fronts 541 • Keynesians
Chapter 23 Fiscal Policy: A Summing Up 493 versus Monetarists 542
Contents xi
Focus Boxes
Real GDP, Technological Progress, and the Price of Famous Bubbles: From Tulipmania in Seventeenth-Century
Computers 25 Holland to Russia in 1994 331
Did Spain Have a 24% Unemployment Rate in 1994? 28 The Increase in U.S. Housing Prices: Fundamentals or a
The Lehman Bankruptcy, Fears of Another Great Depression, Bubble? 332
and Shifts in the Consumption Function 55 Up Close and Personal: Learning from Panel Data Sets 339
The Paradox of Saving 58 Do People Save Enough for Retirement? 342
Semantic Traps: Money, Income and Wealth 65 Investment and the Stock Market 347
Who Holds U.S. Currency? 67 Profitability versus Cash Flow 350
Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Wholesale Funding 75 The Liquidity Trap, Quantitative Easing, and the Role of
Deficit Reduction: Good or Bad for Investment? 97 Expectations 365
Focus: The U.S. Recession of 2001 99 Rational Expectations 367
The Current Population Survey 114 Can a Budget Deficit Reduction Lead to an Output Expansion?
Ireland in the 1980s 370
Henry Ford and Efficiency Wages 119
Can Exports Exceed GDP? 382
How Long Lasting Are the Real Effects of Money? 145
GDP versus GNP: The Example of Kuwait 392
Oil Price Increases: Why Were the 2000s so Different from the
1970s? 153 Buying Brazilian Bonds 394
Theory Ahead of Facts: Milton Friedman and Edumnd The G20 and the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus 409
Phelps 170 The U.S. Current Account Deficit: Origins and Implications 416
What Explains European Unemployment? 173 Sudden Stops, Safe Havens, and the Limits to the Interest
Why Has the U.S. Natural Rate of Unemployment Fallen Since Parity Condition 429
the Early 1990s and How Will the Crisis Affect It? 175 Monetary Contraction and Fical Expansion: The United States in
Increasing Leverage and Alphabet Soup: SIVs, AIG, and the Early 1980s 434
CDSs 187 German Reunification, Interest Rates, and the EMS 438
Japan, the Liquidity Trap, and Fiscal Policy 197 The Return of Britain to the Gold Standard: Keynes versus
Do Banking Crises Affect the Natural Level of Output? 200 Churchill 452
The Construction of PPP Numbers 210 The 1992 EMS Crisis 454
Does Money Lead to Happiness? P 212 The Euro: A Short History 461
Capital Accumulation and Growth in France in the Aftermath of Lessons from Argentina’s Currency Board 463
World War II 231 Twelve Macroeconometric Models 476
Social Security, Saving, and Capital Accumulation in the United Was Alan Blinder Wrong in Speaking the Truth? 482
States 236 The Stability and Growth Pact: A Short History 486
The Diffusion of New Technology: Hybrid Corn 258 Inflation Accounting and the Measurement of Deficits 496
Job Destruction, Churning, and Earnings Losses 278 How Countries Decreased Their Debt Ratios after
The Importance of Institutions: North and South Korea 283 World War II 501
What is behind Chinese Growth? 284 Deficits, Consumption, and Investment in the United States
Why Deflation Can Be Very Bad: Deflation and the Real Interest during World War II 505
Rate in the Great Depression 296 The U.S. Budget Deficit Challenge 507
Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation across Latin America in the Money Illusion 522
Early 1990s 303 The Unsuccessful Search for the Right Monetary
The Vocabulary of Bond Markets 315 Aggregate 527
The Yield Curve and the Liquidity Trap 322 LTV Ratios and Housing Price Increases from 2000 to
Making (Some) Sense of (Apparent) Nonsense: Why the Stock 2007 534
Market Moved Yesterday, and Other Stories 329
xii
Preface
We had two main goals in writing this book: the role of the financial system to the constraints on
macroeconomic policy.
■ To make close contact with current macroeconomic
events. What makes macroeconomics exciting is the ■ Material on depressions and slumps has been relo-
light it sheds on what is happening around the world, cated from later chapters to Chapter 9, and the material
from the major economic crisis which has engulfed on very high inflation has been reduced and included
the world since 2008, to the budget deficits of the in Chapter 23.
United States, to the problems of the Euro area, to high
■ A rewritten Chapter 23, on fiscal policy, focuses on the
growth in China. These events—and many more—are
current debt problems of the United States.
described in the book, not in footnotes, but in the text
or in detailed boxes. Each box shows how you can use ■ Chapters 23, 24, and 25 draw the implications of the
what you have learned to get an understanding of these crisis for the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy in
events. Our belief is that these boxes not only convey particular, and for macroeconomics in general.
the “life” of macroeconomics, but also reinforce the
■ Many new Focus boxes have been introduced and look
lessons from the models, making them more concrete
at various aspects of the crisis, among them the follow-
and easier to grasp.
ing: “The Lehman Bankruptcy, Fears of Another Great
■ To provide an integrated view of macroeconomics. The Depression, and Shifts in the Consumption Function”
book is built on one underlying model, a model that in Chapter 3; “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and
draws the implications of equilibrium conditions in Wholesale Funding” in Chapter 4; “The Liquidity Trap,
three sets of markets: the goods market, the financial Quantitative Easing, and the Role of Expectations” in
markets, and the labor market. Depending on the issue Chapter 17; “The G20 and the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus”
at hand, the parts of the model relevant to the issue in Chapter 19; “How Countries Decreased Their Debt
are developed in more detail while the other parts are Ratios after World War II” in Chapter 23; and “LTV
simplified or lurk in the background. But the underly- Ratios and Housing Price Increases from 2000 to 2007
ing model is always the same. This way, you will see in Chapter 24.
macroeconomics as a coherent whole, not a collection
■ Figures and tables have been updated using the latest
of models. And you will be able to make sense not only
data available.
of past macroeconomic events, but also of those that
unfold in the future.
Organization
New to this Edition The book is organized around two central parts: A core,
■ Chapter 1 starts with a history of the crisis, giving a and a set of two major extensions. An introduction pre-
sense of the landscape, and setting up the issues to be cedes the core. The two extensions are followed by a
dealt with throughout the book. review of the role of policy. The book ends with an epi-
logue. A flowchart on the front endpaper makes it easy
■ A new Chapter 9, which comes after the short- and
to see how the chapters are organized, and fit within the
medium-run architecture have been put in place,
book’s overall structure.
focuses specifically on the crisis. It shows how one can
use and extend the short-run and medium run analy- ■ Chapters 1 and 2 introduce the basic facts and issues of
sis to understand the various aspects of the crisis, from macroeconomics. Chapter 1 focuses on the crisis, and
xiii
then takes a tour of the world, from the United States, to Expectations play a major role in most economic deci-
Europe, to China. Some instructors will prefer to cover sions, and, by implication, play a major role in the
Chapter 1 later, perhaps after Chapter 2, which intro- determination of output.
duces basic concepts, articulates the notions of short
run, medium run, and long run, and gives the reader a Chapters 18 through 21 focus on the implications of
quick tour of the book. openness of modern economies. Chapter 21 focuses
on the implications of different exchange rate regimes,
While Chapter 2 gives the basics of national income from flexible exchange rates, to fixed exchange rates,
accounting, we have put a detailed treatment of currency boards, and dollarization.
national income accounts to Appendix 1 at the end of
the book. This decreases the burden on the beginning ■ Chapters 22 through 24 return to macroeconomic
reader, and allows for a more thorough treatment in policy. Although most of the first 21 chapters con-
the appendix. stantly discuss macroeconomic policy in one form or
another, the purpose of Chapters 22 through 24 is to
■ Chapters 3 through 13 constitute the core. Chapters 3 tie the threads together. Chapter 22 looks at the role
through 5 focus on the short run. These three chapters and the limits of macroeconomic policy in general.
characterize equilibrium in the goods market and in Chapters 23 and 24 review monetary policy and fis-
the financial markets, and they derive the basic model cal policy. Some instructors may want to use parts of
used to study short–run movements in output, the IS– these chapters earlier. For example, it is easy to move
LM model. forward the discussion of the government budget con-
Chapters 6 through 8 focus on the medium run. straint in Chapter 23 or the discussion of inflation tar-
Chapter 6 focuses on equilibrium in the labor market geting in Chapter 24.
and introduces the notion of the natural rate of unem-
■ Chapter 25 serves as an epilogue; it puts macroeco-
ployment. Chapters 7 and 8 develop a model based on
nomics in historical perspective by showing the evolu-
aggregate demand and aggregate supply and show how
tion of macroeconomics in the last 70 years, discussing
that model can be used to understand movements in
current directions of research, and the lessons of the
activity and movements in inflation, both in the short
crisis for macroeconomics.
and in the medium run.
The current crisis is a sufficiently important and com-
plex event that it deserves its own chapter. Building on Changes from the Fifth to the Sixth
and extending Chapters 6 to 8, Chapter 9 focuses on the Edition
origins of the crisis, the role of the financial system, and
The structure of the sixth edition, namely the organiza-
the constraints facing fiscal and monetary policy, such
tion around a core and two extensions, is fundamentally
as the liquidity trap and the high level of public debt.
the same as that of the fifth edition. This edition is, how-
Chapters 10 through 13 focus on the long run. ever, dominated in many ways by the crisis, and the many
Chapter 10 describes the facts, showing the evolution issues it raises. Thus, in addition to a first discussion of
of output across countries and over long periods of the crisis in Chapter 1, and numerous boxes and discus-
time. Chapters 11 and 12 develop a model of growth sions throughout the book, we have added a new chapter,
and describe how capital accumulation and techno- Chapter 9, specifically devoted to the crisis.
logical progress determine growth. Chapter 13 focuses At the same time, we have removed the two chapters
on the effects of technological progress not only in the on pathologies in the fifth edition. The reason is simple,
long run, but also in the short run and in the medium and in some ways, ironic. While we thought that it was
run. This topic is typically not covered in textbooks important for macroeconomic students to know about
but is important. And the chapter shows how one can such events as the Great Depression, or the long slump in
integrate the short run, the medium run, and the long Japan, we did not expect the world to be confronted with
run—a clear example of the payoff to an integrated many of the same issues any time soon. While far from
approach to macroeconomics. being as bad as the Great Depression, the crisis raises
many of the same issues as the Great Depression did.
■ Chapters 14 through 21 cover the two major extensions.
Thus, much of the material covered in the chapters on
Chapters 14 through 17 focus on the role of expec- pathologies in the fifth edition has been moved to the core
tations in the short run and in the medium run. and to the two extensions.
xiv Preface
We have also removed Chapter 9 of the fifth edition, discussions of facts in the text itself, we have written a
which developed a framework to think about the relation large number of Focus boxes, which discuss particular
between growth, unemployment, and inflation. This was macroeconomic events or facts, from the United States or
in response to teachers who found the framework too dif- from around the world.
ficult for students to follow. Again, some of the material in We have tried to re-create some of the student–
that chapter has been kept and integrated elsewhere, in teacher interactions that take place in the classroom by
particular in Chapter 8. the use of margin notes, which run parallel to the text.
The margin notes create a dialogue with the reader and,
Alternative Course Outlines in so doing, smooth the more difficult passages and give
a deeper understanding of the concepts and the results
Within the book’s broad organization, there is plenty of
derived along the way.
opportunity for alternative course organizations. We have
For students who want to explore macroeconomics
made the chapters shorter than is standard in textbooks,
further, we have introduced the following two features:
and, in our experience, most chapters can be covered in
an hour and a half. A few (Chapters 5 and 7 for example) ■ Short appendixes to some chapters, which expand on
might require two lectures to sink in. points made within the chapter.
■ Short courses. (15 lectures or less) ■ A Further Readings section at the end of most chap-
ters, indicating where to find more information, includ-
A short course can be organized around the two
ing a number of key Internet addresses.
introductory chapters and the core (Chapter 13 can
be excluded at no cost in continuity). Informal pres- Each chapter ends with three ways of making sure
entations of one or two of the extensions, based, for that the material in the chapter has been digested:
example, on Chapter 17 for expectations (which
■ A summary of the chapter’s main points.
can be taught as a stand alone), and on Chapter 18
for the open economy, can then follow, for a total of ■ A list of key terms.
14 lectures.
■ A series of end-of-chapter exercises. “Quick Check”
A short course might leave out the study of growth exercises are easy. “Dig Deeper” exercises are a bit
(the long run). In this case, the course can be organ- harder, and “Explore Further” typically require either
ized around the introductory chapters and Chapters access to the Internet or the use of a spreadsheet
3 through 9 in the core; this gives a total of 9 lectures, program.
leaving enough time to cover, for example, Chapter 17
A list of symbols on the back endpapers makes it
on expectations, Chapters 18 through 20 on the open
easy to recall the meaning of the symbols used in the text.
economy, for a total of 13 lectures.
Preface xv
■ Test Item File. The test bank is completely revised with or homework assignments. MyEconLab saves time by
additional new multiple–choice questions for each automatically grading all questions and tracking results
chapter. in an online gradebook. MyEconLab can even grade
assignments that require students to draw a graph.
■ TestGen—The printed Test Item File is designed for
use with the computerized TestGen package, which ■ Real-Time Data—The real-time data problems are
allows instructors to customize, save, and generate new. These problems load the latest available data
classroom tests. The test program permits instructors from FRED, a comprehensive up-to-date data set
to edit, add, or delete questions from the test bank; maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
edit existing graphics and create new graphics; ana- The questions are graded with feedback in exactly the
lyze test results; and organize a database of tests and same way as those based on static data.
student results. This software allows for extensive
After registering for MyEconLab, instructors
flexibility and ease of use. It provides many options
have access to downloadable supplements such as an
for organizing and displaying tests, along with search
Instructor’s Manual, PowerPoint lecture notes, and a
and sort features. The software and the Test Item File
Test Item File. The Test Item File can also be used with
can be downloaded from the Instructor’s Resource
MyEconLab, giving instructors ample material from which
Center. (www.pearsonhighered.com/blanchard)
they can create assignments.
■ Digital Image Library—We have digitized the com- MyEconLab is delivered in Pearson’s MyLab
plete set of figures, graphs, and charts from the book. Mastering system, which offers advanced communica-
These files can be downloaded from the Instructor’s tion and customization features. Instructors can upload
Resource Center. (www.pearsonhighered.com/ course documents and assignments and use advanced
blanchard) course management features. For more information about
MyEconLab or to request an instructor access code, visit
■ PowerPoint Lecture Slides—These electronic slides
www.myeconlab.com.
provide section titles, tables, equations, and graphs
for each chapter and can be downloaded from the
Instructor’s Resource Center. (www.pearsonhighered.
com/blanchard)
Acknowledgments and Thanks
This book owes much to many. We thank Adam Ashcraft,
Peter Berger, Peter Benczur, Efe Cakarel, Harry Gakidis,
David Hwang, Kevin Nazemi, David Reichsfeld, Jianlong
MyEconLab® Tan, Stacy Tevlin, Gaurav Tewari, Corissa Thompson,
John Simon, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer for their research
MyEconLab delivers rich online content and innovative assistance over the years. We thank the generations of stu-
learning tools in your classroom. Instructors who use dents in 14.02 at MIT who have freely shared their reac-
MyEconLab gain access to powerful communication and tions to the book over the years.
assessment tools, and their students receive access to the We have benefited from comments from many col-
additional learning resources described below. leagues and friends. Among them are John Abell, Daron
Acemoglu, Tobias Adrian, Chuangxin An, Roland Benabou,
■ Students and MyEconLab—This online homework
Samuel Bentolila, and Juan Jimeno (who have adapted
and tutorial system puts students in control of their
the book for a Spanish edition); Francois Blanchard,
own learning through a suite of study and practice tools
Roger Brinner, Ricardo Caballero, Wendy Carlin, Martina
correlated with the online, interactive version of the
Copelman, Henry Chappell, Ludwig Chincarini, and
textbook and other media tools. Within MyEconLab’s
Daniel Cohen (who has adapted the book for a French
structured environment, students practice what they
edition); Larry Christiano, Bud Collier, Andres Conesa,
learn, test their understanding, and then pursue a
Peter Diamond, Martin Eichenbaum, Gary Fethke, David
study plan that MyEconLab generates for them based
Findlay, Francesco Giavazzi, and Alessia Amighini (who
on their performance on practice tests.
have adapted the book for an Italian edition); Andrew
■ Instructors and MyEconLab—MyEconLab provides Healy, Steinar Holden, and Gerhard Illing (who has
flexible tools that allow instructors to easily and effec- adapted the book for a German edition); Yannis Ioannides,
tively customize online course materials to suit their Angelo Melino (who has adapted the book for a Canadian
needs. Instructors can create and assign tests, quizzes, edition); P. N. Junankar, Sam Keeley, Bernd Kuemmel, Paul
xvi Preface
Krugman, Antoine Magnier, Peter Montiel, Bill Nordhaus, ■ Nicole Crain, Lafayette College
Tom Michl, Dick Oppermann, Athanasios Orphanides,
■ Rosemary Cunningham, Agnes Scott College
and Daniel Pirez Enri (who has adapted the book for a
Latin American edition); Michael Plouffe, Zoran Popovic, ■ Evren Damar, Pacific Lutheran University
Jim Poterba, and Jeff Sheen (who has adapted the book for
■ Dale DeBoer, University of Colorado at Colorado
an Australasian edition); Ronald Schettkat, and Watanabe
Springs
Shinichi (who has adapted the book for a Japanese edition);
Francesco Sisci, Brian Simboli, Changyong Rhee, Julio ■ Adrian de Leon-Arias, Universidad de Guadalajara
Rotemberg, Robert Solow, Andre Watteyne, and Michael
■ Brad DeLong, UC Berkeley
Woodford.
We have benefited from comments from many read- ■ Firat Demir, University of Oklahoma
ers, reviewers, and class testers. Among them:
■ Wouter Denhaan, UC San Diego
■ John Abell, Randolph, Macon Woman’s College
■ John Dodge, King College
■ Carol Adams, Cabrillo College
■ F. Trenery Dolbear, Brandeis University
■ Gilad Aharonovitz, School of Economic Sciences
■ Patrick Dolenc, Keene State College
■ Terence Alexander, Iowa State University
■ Brian Donhauser, University of Washington
■ Roger Aliaga-Diaz, Drexel University
■ Michael Donihue, Colby College
■ Robert Archibald, College of William & Mary
■ Vincent Dropsy, California State University
■ John Baffoe-Bonnie, La Salle University
■ Justin Dubas, St. Norbert College
■ Fatolla Bagheri, University of North Dakota
■ Amitava Dutt, University of Notre Dame
■ Stephen Baker, Capital University
■ John Edgren, Eastern Michigan University
■ Erol Balkan, Hamilton College
■ Eric Elder, Northwestern College
■ Jennifer Ball, Washburn University
■ Sharon J. Erenburg, Eastern Michigan University
■ Richard Ballman, Augustana College
■ Antonina Espiritu, Hawaii Pacific University
■ King Banaian, St. Cloud State University
■ J. Peter Federer, Clark University
■ Charles Bean, London School of Economics and
■ Rendigs Fels, Vanderbilt University
Political Science
■ John Flanders, Central Methodist University
■ Scott Benson, Idaho State University
■ Marc Fox, Brooklyn College
■ Gerald Bialka, University of North Florida
■ Yee-Tien (Ted) Fu, Stanford University
■ Robert Blecker, American University
■ Yee-Tien Fu, National Cheng-Chi University, Taiwan
■ Scott Bloom, North Dakota State University
■ Scott Fullwiler, Wartburg College
■ Pim Borren, University of Canterbury, New Zealand
■ Julie Gallaway, University of Missouri–Rolla
■ LaTanya Brown-Robertson, Bowie State University
■ Bodhi Ganguli, Rutgers, The State University of NJ
■ James Butkiewicz, University of Delaware
■ Fabio Ghironi, Boston College
■ Colleen Callahan, American University
■ Alberto Gomez-Rivas, University of Houston–Downtown
■ Bruce Carpenter, Mansfield University
■ Fidel Gonzalez, Sam Houston State University
■ Kyongwook Choi, Ohio University College
■ Harvey Gram, Queen College, City University of
■ Michael Cook, William Jewell College
New York
Preface xvii
■ Randy Grant, Linfield College ■ Hsien-Feng Lee, National Taiwan University
■ Alan Gummerson, Florida International University ■ Jim Lee, Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi
■ Reza Hamzaee, Missouri Western State College ■ John Levendis, Loyola University New Orleans
■ Ana Maria Herrera, Michigan State University ■ Bernard Malamud, University of Nevada, Las Vegas
■ Takeo Hoshi, University of California, San Diego ■ O. Mikhail, University of Central Florida
■ Ralph Husby, University of Illinois, Urbana–Champaign ■ Fabio Milani, University of California, Irvine
■ Yannis Ioannides, Tufts University ■ Rose Milbourne, University of New South Wales
■ Cem Karayalcin, Florida International University ■ John Olson, College of St. Benedict
■ Miles Kimball, University of Michigan ■ Jack Osman, San Francisco State University
■ Mark Klinedinst, University of Southern Mississippi ■ Andrew Parkes, Mesa State College
■ Todd Knoop, Cornell College ■ Jim Peach, New Mexico State University
■ Paul Koch, Olivet Nazarene University ■ Gavin Peebles, National University of Singapore
■ Ng Beoy Kui, Nanyang Technical University, Singapore ■ Michael Quinn, Bentley College
■ Leonard Lardaro, University of Rhode Island ■ Charles Revier, Colorado State University
■ James Leady, University of Notre Dame ■ Jack Richards, Portland State University
xviii Preface
■ Monica Robayo, University of North Florida ■ Mark Wohar, University of Nebraska, Omaha
■ Malcolm Robinson, Thomas Moore College ■ Steven Wood, University of California, Berkeley
■ Kehar Sangha, Old Dominion University ■ Ip Wing Yu, University of Hong Kong
■ Ahmad Saranjam, Bridgewater State College ■ Chi-Wa Yuen, Hong Kong University of Science and
Technology
■ Carol Scotese, Virginia Commonwealth University
■ Christian Zimmermann, University of Connecticut
■ John Seater, North Carolina State University
■ Liping Zheng, Drake University
■ Peter Sephton, University of New Brunswick
They have helped us beyond the call of duty, and each
■ Ruth Shen, San Francisco State University
has made a difference to the book.
■ Kwanho Shin, University of Kansas We have many people to thank at Pearson/Prentice
Hall: David Alexander, executive editor for Economics;
■ Tara Sinclair, The George Washington University
Lindsey Sloan, editorial project manager; Emily Brodeur,
■ Aaron Smallwood, University of Texas, Arlington editorial assistant; Nancy Freihofer, production editor;
and Lori DeShazo, the marketing manager for Economics,
■ David Sollars, Auburn University
and Lauren Foster at PreMediaGlobal.
■ Liliana Stern, Auburn University
Thanks from Olivier
■ Edward Stuart, Northeastern Illinois University
I want to single out Steve Rigolosi, the editor for the first
■ Abdulhanid Sukaar, Cameron University edition; Michael Elia, the editor to the second and third
editions; Amy Ray, the editor of the fourth edition; and
■ Peter Summers, Texas Tech University
Chris Rogers, the editor of the fifth edition. Steve forced
■ Mark Thomas, University of Maryland Baltimore County me to clarify. Michael forced me to simplify. Amy forced
me to simplify further. Together, they have made all the
■ Brian Trinque, The University of Texas at Austin
difference to the process and to the book. I thank all of
■ Marie Truesdell, Marian College them deeply.
At MIT, I continue to thank John Arditi for his abso-
■ David Tufte, Southern Utah University
lute reliability.
■ Abdul Turay, Radford University I have also benefited from often-stimulating sugges-
tions from my daughters, Serena, Giulia and Marie: I did
■ Frederick Tyler, Fordham University
not, however, follow all of them. At home, I continue to
■ Pinar Uysal, Boston College thank Noelle for preserving my sanity.
Olivier Blanchard
■ Evert Van Der Heide, Calvin College
Cambridge, MIT
■ Kristin Van Gaasbeck, California State University, June 2012
Sacramento
Thanks from David
■ Lee Van Scyoc, University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh
I have to thank Olivier for encouraging me to write the
■ Paul Wachtel, New York University Stern Business School Canadian editions of this book over the past decade.
I enjoyed that work and I enjoyed teaching out of the
■ Susheng Wang, Hong Kong University
Canadian edition. I appreciated the opportunity to par-
■ Donald Westerfield, Webster University ticipate in the sixth American edition.
I would like to thank the many students in intermedi-
■ Christopher Westley, Jacksonville State University
ate macroeconomics at Wilfrid Laurier University whom I
■ David Wharton, Washington College have taught over the years. I was blessed with four excel-
lent instructors in macroeconomics at the graduate level:
■ Jonathan Willner, Oklahoma City University
Preface xix
David Laidler, Michael Parkin, Benjamin Friedman and Finally I would like to thank my wife Susan. I benefit
Olivier Blanchard. These professors taught macroeco- so much from her love and support.
nomics in a way that made it engaging and exciting. David Johnson,
Alastair Robertson, who was a superb colleague for Wilfred Laurier University
many years in teaching intermediate macroeconomics at Waterloo, Ontario,
WLU, taught me a lot about teaching. June 2012
xx Preface
Introduction
THE CORE
The first two chapters of this book
introduce you to the issues and the
approach of macroeconomics.
Chapter 1
Chapter 1 takes you on a macroeconomic tour of the world. It starts with a look at the
economic crisis that has dominated the world economy since the late 2000s. The tour stops at
each of the world’s major economic powers: the United States, the Euro area, and China.
Chapter 2
Chapter 2 takes you on a tour of the book. It defines the three central variables of
macroeconomics: output, unemployment, and inflation. It then introduces the three time
periods around which the book is organized: the short run, the medium run, and the long run.
1
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Sattui sitten eräänä iltana, kun äiti oli ulkona, että huoneeseen tuli
kaunis, hyviin vaatteisiin puettu mies ja kysyi, oliko Fanny kotona. -
— Äidin nimi oli Saara, mutta vieraat kutsuivat häntä Fannyksi.
— Vai niin, vai olet sinä äidin veljen tyttö. Entä kuka se äiti on?
— Olen.
— Enkä sano.
— Onpa!
— Eipä.
Kun mies oli mennyt pois, otti äiti Hetun syliinsä ja oli parempi kuin
milloinkaan ennen, puhui kuolemasta ja muista surullisista asioista,
hyväili ja suuteli. Sitten äiti asetti Hetun maata, polvistui vuoteen
ääreen, itki ja rukoili. — — —
Hetua pelotti.
— Jumala sen tietää. Kyllä se nyt niin pakeni, ettet sinä sitä löydä.
Äiti oli poissa. Se oli kamala totuus. Poissa jälleen ja hän, Hetu,
jälleen yksin. Hetu meni huoneeseen, mutta se oli kolkko kuin
sieluton ruumis ja hän pelkäsi sitä. Hän meni ulos, siellä oli tyhjää ja
vierasta.
Minkätähden äiti jätti minut, vaikka minä olin niin kiltti, sai Hetu
tuskaisten tunteittensa lomitse ajateltua. — Jätti minut, oman, pienen
tyttönsä ja vei mukanaan sen miehen. Miksi äiti jätti… mistään ei
tullut vastausta lapsen vaikeroimiseen.
*****
Hänen oli lähdettävä kulkemaan pois päin, eteen päin, sinne kai oli
äitikin mennyt… Ehkä tapaakin hän äidin!… Hetu tuli milt'ei iloseksi
siitä ajatuksesta. Hän tapaa äidin! Ja kun hän vielä kerran pääsee
äidin luo, niin pyytää hän oikein kauniisti, ettei äiti hylkäisi, vaan
pitäisi hänet aina luonansa, eikä hän sitten koskaan enää nuku
sikeästi, ettei äiti pääse karkaamaan…
Hetu oli juuri lähtemäisillään yön selkään, kun eräs mies, jonka
lakissa oli keltanen merkki ja vyöllä miekka, tuli kutsumaan häntä
vallesmannin puheille. Hetu tiesi, että vallesmanni on sellainen, joka
sakottaa, ja hän ei tahtonut lähteä. Mies houkutteli ja sanoi
vallesmannin antavan Hetulle kahvia ja vehnästä ja ruokaa.
Siellä Hetu sai kahvia ja paljon vehnästä ja niin hyvää ruokaa, ettei
hän ollut uneksinutkaan sellaista.
Hetua ihan nauratti, niin hauskalta tuntui, kun sai istua rattailla ja
ajaa jyryyttää äidin luokse. Hän säästää kaikki eväänsä äidille, mutta
sille miehelle, joka äidin vei, hän ei anna mitään. Hetu vihasi sitä
miestä, se oli niin ilkeä…
V.
Kun tuskat nousevat yli sen määrätyn rajan, minkä ihminen niitä
jaksaa kantaa, silloin loppuu tuskien tunto ja kuoleman kaltainen
tyyneys tulee sijalle.
Sellaisessa tilassa hän oli, kun kyyditsijä ilmotti, että oltiin tultu
perille, Hetun kotipitäjän vallesmannin taloon. Ja kun kyytimies käski
Hetun nousta rattailta ja mennä sisään huoneeseen, totteli lapsi
vähintäkään pelon merkkiä osottamatta. Herra, jonka eteen hän
joutui, oli suuri ja tuimannäkönen ja muulloin olisi Hetu vapissut
sellaisen edessä, mutta nyt oli hänelle yhdentekevää, minkä
näkönen se oli.
— Äitiäni hakemaan.
— Mitä, mitkä…?
— Ne Rajaportin lehmät.
— Löi se.
— No, entä tämä, hän ärjäsi, entä tämä? Miten voitte te tämän
selittää?
Hetu ei vastannut.
VI.
Mutta kun neiti oli niin liian lempeä, liian hyvä ja kun se alituiseen
hymyili, hymyili… hymyili ihan ilman syytä, — ei Hetu voinut sille
mitään, että hänet väkisin valtasi mieliala, joka oli kuin katumusta
siitä, ettei ollut mennyt takasin Rajaporttiin.
*****
Miehistä oli toinen vakava ja totinen. Hän istui hiljaa kädet ristissä,
ei puhunut paljon, eikä muutenkaan herättänyt erityistä huomiota.
Mutta toinen, josta neiti näytti pitävän enemmän, oli vilkas ja levoton.
Hänellä oli suuri, terävä nenä, leveät, keltaset hampaat ja hänen
silmänsä kulkivat alinomaan esineestä esineeseen.
*****
VII.
— Sinä olet tähän asti ollut lapsi, hän puhui, mutta kun sinä saat
sen armon, että pääset osalliseksi siitä kalliista sakramentistä, joka
on herramme Jeesuksen Kristuksen ruumis ja veri, niin astut sinä
ulos lapsuuden maailmasta Jumalan valtakunnan todellisuuteen.
Sinä teet liiton Jumalan kanssa ja olet itse vastuunalainen jokaisesta
sanasta, askeleesta ja teosta, joka ei ole Jumalan mielen mukanen.
Mutta kaikki me ihmiset olemme heikkoja, eikä meidän elämämme,
vaikka se hyväkin olisi, ole täydellisyydelle otollinen, sille
täydellisyydelle, joka on Jumala, ja sentähden on meillä hänen kallis
poikansa Jeesus, jonka kautta armo on meille annettu. Siis joka
hetki, jok'ainoa silmänräpäys tulee sinun huoata Jeesuksen puoleen
että hän armahtaisi sinua ja olisi laupias sinun heikkoutesi tähden.
Neiti oli aina ollut hyvä Hetulle, mutta mitään hellyyttä Hetu ei
häntä kohtaan tuntenut. Heidän välinsä oli aina pysynyt
uskonnollisen kylmänä, eivätkä vanhuksen sanat nytkään mitään
vaikuttaneet. Hetu ei tuntenut mitään juhlallista jumalanliiton
lähestymistä, tunsi vain tulevansa aika-ihmiseksi.
Rippikoulua kesti kaksi viikkoa ja Hetu oli siellä paras. Hän osasi
aina antaa oikean vastauksen papin kysymyksiin ja hänen
käytöksensä oli mallikelpoista, hän kun oli tottunut hiljaa
kuuntelemaan. Joka ilta tuli neiti häntä vastaan, kun hän palasi
kirkosta. Vanhus pelkäsi ja varoi, ettei tyttö vain joutuisi maailman
lasten viettelysten pauloihin. Ja kotona sai Hetu kertoa, mitä pappi
kunakin päivänä oli häneltä kysynyt ja miten hän oli papille
vastannut. Neiti oli tyytyväinen vastauksiin, joskus vain sanoi: olisit
vastannut niin ja niin, se olisi ollut vielä parempi.
Eemeli Ahola, se oli pojan nimi, oli suuren kotitalonsa ainoa poika
ja, kuten kerrottiin, vanhempainsa ainainen surun esine. Miten syvää
tuo suru hänen suhteensa oli, sitä ei varmasti voitu päättää, sillä
usein sai äiti pakahtuakseen nauraa pojan kujeille ja isää taas
lohdutti se usko, että poika vanhemmiten kyllä talttuu. Sellainen oli
hänkin, isä, nuorena ollut.