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(download pdf) Financial Reporting Financial Statement Analysis and Valuation 7th Edition Whalen Test Bank full chapter
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Chapter 10--Forecasting Financial Statements
Student: ___________________________________________________________________________
2. Nichols and Wahlen's 2004 study showed that superior forecasting provides the potential to earn superior
security returns. Nichols and Wahlen's findings indicate
A. that an investor could earn excess returns if the investor could predict accurately the sign of the change in
earnings one year ahead.
B. that an investor could earn excess returns if the investor could predict accurately the magnitude of the change
in earnings one year ahead.
C. that an investor could earn excess returns if the investor could predict accurately the sign of the change in
cash flows from operations one year ahead.
D. that an investor could earn excess returns if the investor could predict accurately the sign of the change in
working capital one year ahead.
3. Financial statement forecasts rely on additivity within financial statements and articulation across financial
statements. Given this information forecasts of future growth in inventory will most likely affect growth in
A. accounts receivables.
B. accounts payable.
C. depreciation.
D. salary payable.
4. Financial statement forecasts rely on additivity within financial statements and articulation across financial
statements. Given this information sales growth forecasts will most likely affect growth in
A. accounts receivables.
B. accounts payable.
C. depreciation.
D. salary payable.
5. Projecting sales price changes depends on factors specific to the firm and its industry that might affect
demand and price elasticity. Which of the following types of companies would most likely be able to increase
prices?
A. A firm in a capital intensive industry that is expected to operate near capacity for the near future.
B. A firm in a capital intensive industry in which excess capacity exists.
C. A firm operating in an industry that is expected to experience technological improvements in its production
process.
D. A firm operating in an industry that is transitioning from the high growth to the maturity phase of its life
cycle.
6. Projecting sales price changes depends on factors specific to the firm and its industry that might affect
demand and price elasticity. Which of the following companies would most likely not be able to increase prices
in the near future?
A. A firm in a capital intensive industry that is expected to operate near capacity for the near future.
B. A firm in a capital intensive industry in which excess capacity exists.
C. A firm operating in an industry that is expected to maintain its current production processes.
D. A firm operating in an industry that is transitioning from the introduction phase to the high growth phase of
its life cycle.
7. If a company has very low operating leverage (i.e. a low proportion of fixed costs in the cost structure) and
no changes are expected in operations
A. percentage change income statement percentages can serve as the basis for projecting operating expenses.
B. using common-size income statement percentages will overstate future projected operating expenses.
C. using common-size income statement percentages will understate future projected operating expenses.
D. using common-size income statement percentages can serve as a reasonable basis for projecting future
operating expenses.
8. When projecting operating expenses it is important to determine the mix of fixed and variable costs, one clue
suggesting the presence of fixed costs is
A. the percentage change in cost of goods sold in prior years is significantly greater than the percentage change
in sales.
B. the percentage change in cost of goods sold in prior years is significantly less than the percentage change in
sales.
C. low capital intensity in the production process.
D. the percentage change in sales in prior years is significantly greater than the percentage change in
receivables.
9. To ensure that the financial statements articulate, it is important that the change in the cash balance on the
balance sheet each year agrees with
A. the cash collections from sales in the projected income statement.
B. the cash provided by or used by operations on the projected statement of cash flows.
C. the net change in cash on the projected statement of cash flows.
D. the net change in working capital from period to period.
10. An analyst using the inventory turnover ratio to calculate future levels of inventory may face the problem
that
A. the method reduces the potential understatement inherent in average balances.
B. the method can introduce artificial volatility in ending balances.
C. the method results in understating inventory each year.
D. the method results in overstating inventory each year.
11. Sparky’s
Sparky’s sells auto parts. Provided below is selected financial information from the company’s 2012 annual
report:
Using Sparky’s financial information what is the company’s inventory turnover ratio for 2012?
A. 0.69
B. 1.00
C. 3.35
D. 4.03
12. Sparky’s
Sparky’s sells auto parts. Provided below is selected financial information from the company’s 2012 annual
report:
Sparky’s forecasts that sales will grow by 25% in 2013 and that its cost of goods sold to sales ratio will be the same in 2013 as it was in 2012. If
these assumptions prove correct and Sparky’s inventory turnover ratio for 2013 is 4.5 what will be the level of inventory at the end of 2013?
A. $31,353
B. $38,320
C. $40,000
D. $42,314
Card Sharks, Inc. sells baseball cards and other memorabilia. The company tries to maintain a cash balance
equivalent to approximately 30 days of sales. Sales in 2011 amounted to $352,412 and the company expects
growth in 2012 of 33% and in 2013 of 40%.
Given the information provided about Card Sharks, what is the company’s 2012 projected year-end cash
balance?
A. $966
B. $28,965
C. $15,623
D. $38,524
Card Sharks, Inc. sells baseball cards and other memorabilia. The company tries to maintain a cash balance
equivalent to approximately 30 days of sales. Sales in 2011 amounted to $352,412 and the company expects
growth in 2012 of 33% and in 2013 of 40%.
Given the information provided about Card Sharks, what is the company’s 2013 projected annual sales?
A. $656,191
B. $493,377
C. $187,483
D. $542,333
15. Card Sharks, Inc.
Card Sharks, Inc. sells baseball cards and other memorabilia. The company tries to maintain a cash balance
equivalent to approximately 30 days of sales. Sales in 2011 amounted to $352,412 and the company expects
growth in 2012 of 33% and in 2013 of 40%.
Given the information provided about Card Sharks, what is the company’s 2013 projected cash balance?
A. $53,934
B. $49,524
C. $21,873
D. $38,524
16. All of the following are the fundamental bases for future payoffs to equity shareholders and share value
except:
A. earnings
B. cash flows
C. dividends
D. depreciation
17. All of the following are true regarding the key principles of forecasting except:
A. Financial statement forecasts need not be comprehensive.
B. Forecasts should not manifest wishful thinking.
C. Financial statement forecasts must be internally consistent.
D. Financial statement forecasts must rely on assumptions that have external validity.
18. Which of the following statements does not apply to preventing “garbage in, garbage out” when
implementing a forecasting game plan?
A. The quality of the financial statement forecasts will depend on the quality of the
forecast assumptions.
B. The quantities forecasted within financial statement forecasts will depend on the quantity of the forecast
assumptions.
C. Analysts should justify and evaluate the most important assumptions that reflect the critical risk and success
factors of the firm’s strategy.
D. Analysts can impose reality checks on the assumptions by analyzing the forecasted financial statements
using ratios, common-size, and rate-of-change financial statements.
19. If a firm competes in a capital-intensive industry with excess capacity, all of the following are true except:
A. price increases will be less likely.
B. price increases will be more likely.
C. companies in competitive industries face high exit barriers.
D. companies in competitive industries may experience future price decreases.
20. Using common-size balance sheet percentages to project individual assets, liabilities, or shareholders’ equity
has all of the following shortcomings except:
A. Individual assets, liabilities, and shareholders’ equity are not independent
of each other.
B. If a company experiences changing proportions for investments in securities among its assets, other asset
categories may show decreasing percentages in some years even though their dollar amounts are increasing.
C. Individual assets, liabilities, and shareholders’ equity are independent
of each other.
D. The common-size percentages do not permit the analyst to easily change
the assumptions about the future behavior of an individual asset or liability.
21. All of the following statements are true regarding ratios and forecasts except:
A. Ratios cannot confirm whether forecast assumptions will turn out to be correct.
B. Ratios can tell whether future sales growth was accurately captured.
C. Ratios cannot tell whether assumptions about future cash flows are realistic.
D. Ratios can tell whether growth rates for sales are consistent with past sales growth performance.
22. Projected financial statements can be used to assess the sensitivity of all of the following except:
A. a firm’s liquidity
B. a firm’s leverage to changes in assumptions
C. conditions under which the firm’s debt covenants may become binding
D. unusual patterns for projected total assets.
24. Financial ratio, percentage, and trend comparisons can be distorted by all of the following except:
A. aggressive revenue recognition practices.
B. the timing of asset purchases.
C. accounting for similar economic fundamentals in similar fashion.
D. the presence of nonrecurring items among the firms being analyzed.
25. All of the following are true regarding projected financial statements except:
A. The statement of cash flows is the most critical forecast since it reflects profitability rather than viability.
B. Preparing projected financial statements must incorporate a company's past performance records.
C. Preparing projected financial statements must incorporate a company's current performance records.
D. The income statement demonstrates immediate capability to service debt for banks or real potential for
growth in returns for venture capital.
26. As a firm progresses through the introduction life-cycle stage, what type of flexible account will it be more
likely to use to balance the balance sheet?
A. dividends.
B. growth related assets.
C. issued equity.
D. stock buy-backs.
27. As a firm progresses through the decline life-cycle stage, what type of flexible account will it be more likely
to use to balance the balance sheet?
A. issued debt.
B. growth related assets.
C. issued equity.
D. stock buy-backs.
28. As a firm progresses through the growth life-cycle stage, what type of flexible account will it be more likely
to use to balance the balance sheet?
A. issued debt.
B. paying down of debt.
C. dividends
D. stock buy-backs.
29. Financial statement forecasts are important analysis tools because forecasts of
______________________________ play a central role in valuation and many other financial decision
contexts.
________________________________________
32. Financial statement forecasts should rely on _________________________ across financial statements.
________________________________________
33. A firm in a mature industry with little expected change in its market share might anticipate volume increases
equal to the growth rate in the _________________________ within its geographic markets.
________________________________________
34. Firms which have differentiated ___________________________________ for its products may have a
greater potential to increase prices.
________________________________________
35. It may be difficult to forecast sales for firms with _________________________ patterns because their
historical growth rates reflect wide variations in both direction and amount from year to year.
________________________________________
36. A company that has a cost structure in which its costs grow at a lesser rate than its sale enjoys
___________________________________.
________________________________________
37. To develop forecasts of individual assets, the analyst must first link historical growth rates for individual
assets to historical growth rates in sales or other ___________________________________.
________________________________________
38. The analyst can capture projected levels of operating activity by using ______________________________
to develop forecasts for individual assets.
________________________________________
39. To develop forecasts of individual assets, the analyst must first link historical growth rates for individual
assets to historical growth rates in ____________________ and other activity-based drivers.
________________________________________
40. For some types of assets, such as plant, property and equipment, asset growth typically
____________________ future sales growth.
________________________________________
41. For some types of assets, such as accounts receivable, asset growth typically ____________________ future
sales growth.
________________________________________
42. When projecting ____________________, the analyst should consider economy-wide factors such as the
expected rate of general price inflation in the economy.
________________________________________
43. A firm in transition from the high growth to the mature phase of its life cycle, or a firm with significant
technological improvements in its production processes, might expect increases in
______________________________ but decreases in sales prices per unit.
________________________________________
44. If a firm competes in a ___________________________________ industry that the analyst expects will
operate near capacity for the next few years, then price increases will be more likely.
________________________________________
45. Analysts must develop realistic expectations for the outcomes of future business activities.
To develop these expectations, analysts build a set of _____________________________.
________________________________________
46. Many times an analyst will compute ending accounts receivable or inventory balances using turnover ratios.
Discuss the advantage and disadvantage of using this methodology.
47. The authors set forth a seven-step forecasting game plan for preparing pro forma financial statements.
Discuss the seven steps necessary to prepare the three principal financial statements.
48. One problem caused by using turnover ratios to calculate asset balances is that it can lead to volatility in
projected ending balances. What might an analyst do to reduce the "sawtooth" pattern caused by using turnover
ratios?
49. The first step in the forecasting game plan is to project sales and other other operating activities. Sales
numbers are determined by both a volume component and price component. Projecting prices depends on
factors specific to the firm and its industry that might affect demand and price elasticity. For the following types
of firms discuss whether it would be likely that the firm would be able to raise future prices:
a. A firm in a capital-intensive industry that is expected to operate near capacity for the near future.
b. A firm in an industry that is expected to experience numerous technological improvements.
c. A firm with products which are transitioning from the growth to maturity phase of the product life cycle.
d. A firm that has established a well known brand name and image.
50. As an analyst it is important when projecting sales to make estimates about future changes in sales volume.
Compare how you might make estimates about future sales value for a company in a mature industry and one in
a rapidly growing industry.
51. In comparison of 2010 to 2009 performance, Watson Company's inventory turnover decreased substantially,
although sales and inventory amounts were essentially unchanged.
Required:
During a corporate meeting you heard the following managers postulate why the decreased inventory turnover
ratio happened. Which statement best explains the decreased inventory turnover ratio and why?
a. The marketing manager said: The decreased inventory turnover ratio is due to an increase in the cost of goods
sold.
b. The operations manager said: The decreased inventory turnover ratio is due to increased gross profit
percentage.
c. The credit manager said: The decreased inventory turnover ratio is due to a decrease in the accounts
receivable turnover.
d. The shipping manager said: The decreased inventory turnover ratio is due to decreased total asset turnover.
52.
Bargains, Inc. manufactures and markets toys. Selected income statement data from 2010 and 2009 appear
below:
Bargains, Inc.
Selected Income Statement data
Fiscal year end 12/31/2010 12/31/2009
(amounts in thousands of dollars)
Net sales $4,885,340 $4,637,924
Cost of Goods Sold -3,824,353 -3,638,990
Gross profit 1,060,987 998,934
Required:
a. An analyst can sometimes estimate the variable cost as a percentage of sales for a particular cost by dividing the amount of the
change in the cost item between two years by the amount of the change in sales for those two years. The analyst can then multiply the
variable cost percentage times sales to determine the total variable cost. Subtracting the variable cost yields the fixed cost for that
particular item. Follow this procedure to determine the cost structure for costs of goods sold for Bargains, Inc.
b. Bargains, Inc. projects sales to grow at the following percentages in future years: 2011, 9 percent; 2012, 11 percent; 2013, 15 percent.
Using this information project sales, cost of goods sold and gross profit for Bargains, Inc. for 2011 to 2013.
53. Glad Rags, Inc. sells women's clothes. Provided below is selected financial statement information:
Required:
a. Compute the inventory turnover ratio for 2010.
b. Clothes, Inc. projects that sales will grow at a compound rate of 7% per year for years 2011-2013 and that the cost of goods sold to sales
percentage will equal that realized in 2010. Compute the projected implied level of inventory at the end of 2011 to 2013.
54. Office Mart, Inc. sells numerous office supply products through a national distribution center. The company
has focused on maintaining a cash balance equivalent to approximately 14 days of sales. Sales in 2010
amounted to $125,980,673 and the company expects growth in 2011 of 11% and in 2012 of 15%. Given this
information determine Office Mart, Inc.'s projected year-end cash balance for 2011 and 2012.
55. The following information about Douglas Corp.’s Accounts Receivable and Sales are presented below:
Year
2012-Beginnin
g Balance of
A/R = $791M
Year 2012
-Ending
Balance of A/R
= $807M
Year 2012 -
Sales =
$3,002M
Assumptions:
Sales growth
will be equal to
6% per year
A/R turnover
will stay
constant
throughout the
forecast period
Required:
a. Using this information, forecast Douglas Corp.’s the growth in Accounts Receivable for years 2013-2017.
b. What problem does a constant A/R turnover assumption cause?
c. Provide a solution to the problem caused by a constant A/R turnover assumption.
56. The following balance sheet and income statement pertain to Goode Corp., using the following assumptions
complete a forecasted 2013 income statement:
Assumpt
ions for
2013:
Revenue growth rate 32%
COGS 64% of sales
Operating expenses 23% of sales
Interest expense 10% of
beginning
long-term
debt
Tax rate 35%
These data represent a summary of your first-iteration forecast amounts for Year 1. Simmons uses dividends as
a flexible financial account.
Year + 1
Operating Income $ 58
Interest Expense 8
Income before Tax $ 50
Tax Provision (20.0 percent effective tax rate) 10
Net Income $ 40
Total Assets $200
Accrued Liabilities $ 43
Long-Term Debt $ 80
Common Stock, at par $ 20
Retained Earnings (at the beginning of Year 1) $ 34
58. Repair Specialists is a leading retailer of home improvement products. It operates large warehouse-style
stores. Despite declining sales and difficult economic conditions in 2009 and 2010, Repair Specialists continued
to invest in new stores. The following table provides summary data for Repair Specialists.
a. Use the preceding data for Repair Specialists to compute average revenues per store,
capital spending per new store, and ending inventory per store in 2010.
b. Assume that Repair Specialists will add 100 new stores by the end of Year 1. Use
the data from 2010 to project Year 1 sales revenues, capital spending, and ending
inventory. Assume that each new store will be open for business for an average of
one-half year in Year 1. For simplicity, assume that in Year 1, Repair Specialists’ sales
revenues will grow, but only because it will open new stores.
59. Techtronics is a leader in manufacturing computer chips, which is very capital-intensive. Because the
production processes in computer chip manufacturing require sophisticated and rapidly changing technology,
production and manufacturing assets in the chip industry tend to have relatively short useful lives.
Assume that Techtronics depreciates all property, plant, and equipment using the straight-line
depreciation method and zero salvage value. Assume that Intel spends $6,000 on new
depreciable assets in Year 1 and does not sell or retire any property, plant, and equipment
during Year 1.
a. Compute the average useful life that Techtronics used for depreciation in 2010.
b. Project total depreciation expense for Year 1 using the following steps: (i) project
depreciation expense for Year 1 on existing property, plant, and equipment at the
end of 2010; (ii) project depreciation expense on capital expenditures in Year 1
assuming that Intel takes a full year of depreciation in the first year of service; and
(iii) sum the results of (i) and (ii) to obtain total depreciation expense for Year 1.
c. Project the Year 1 ending balance in property, plant, and equipment, both at cost
and net of accumulated depreciation.
Nuwak
Sales $6,266 $11,377
Cost of Products Sold 5,997 9,129
Gross Profit $ 269 $ 2,248
Gross Margin 4.3% 19.8%
Industry analysts anticipate the following annual changes in sales for the next five years:
Year +1, 5 percent increase; Year +2, 10 percent increase; Year +3, 20 percent increase; Year +4, 10 percent decrease; Year +5, 20 percent decrease.
Required
a. The analyst can sometimes estimate the variable cost as a percentage of sales for a
particular cost (for example, cost of products sold) by dividing the amount of the
change in the cost item between two years by the amount of the change in sales for
those two years. The analyst can then multiply the variable-cost percentage times
sales to estimate the total variable cost. Subtracting the variable cost from the total
cost yields an estimate of the fixed cost for that particular cost item. Follow this procedure
to estimate the manufacturing cost structure (variable cost as a percentage of
sales, total variable costs, and total fixed costs) for cost of products sold for both Arco and Nuwak in Year 4.
b. Discuss the structure of manufacturing cost (that is, fixed versus variable) for each
firm in light of the manufacturing process and type of product produced.
c. Using the analysts’ forecasts of sales changes, compute the projected sales, cost of
products sold, gross profit, and gross margin (gross profit as a percentage of sales)
of each firm for Year +1 through Year +5.
d. Why do the levels and variability of the gross margin percentages differ for these two
firms for Year +1 through Year +5?
61. Saunders Corporation manufactures consumer electronics products. Selected income statement data for
2009 and 2010 follow (amounts in millions of dollars):
c. Saunders Corporation discloses that it expects sales to grow at the following percentages
in future years: Year 1, 12 percent; Year 2, 10 percent; Year 3, 8 percent; Year 4, 6 percent. Project sales, cost of goods sold, selling and
administrative expenses, and operating income before income taxes for Saunders for Year 1 to Year 4 using the cost structure amounts derived in
requirements a. and b.
d. Compute the ratio of operating income before income taxes to sales for Year 1 through Year 4.
e. Interpret the changes in the ratio computed in requirement d. in light of the expected changes in sales.
62. Hart designs, manufactures, and markets toys in domestic and international markets. Sales during 2010
totaled $4,022 million. Accounts receivable totaled $655 million at the beginning of 2010 and $612 million at
the end of 2010.
Required
a. Use the average balance to compute the accounts receivable turnover ratio for Hart for 2010.
b. Hart generated a compound annual sales growth rate of 13.0 percent over the past two years. Assume that
Hart's sales will continue to grow at that rate each year for Year +1 through Year +5 and that the accounts
receivable turnover ratio each year will equal the ratio computed in requirement a. for 2010. Project the amount
of accounts receivable at year-end through Year +5 based on the accounts receivable turnover computed in
requirement a. Also compute the percentage change in accounts receivable between each of the year-ends
through Year +5.
c. Does the pattern of growth in your projections of Hart's accounts receivable seem
reasonable considering the assumptions of smooth growth in sales and steady turnover? Explain.
d. The changes in accounts receivable computed in requirement b. display the sawtooth pattern depicted in
Exhibit 10.5 in the text. Smooth the changes in accounts receivable by computing the year-end accounts
receivable balances for Year 1 through Year 5 using the compound annual growth rate in accounts receivable
between the end of 2010 and the end of Year +1 from requirement b.
e. Smooth the changes in accounts receivable using the compound annual growth rate in accounts receivable
between the end of 2010 and the end of Year +4 from requirement b. Apply this growth rate to compute
accounts receivable at the end of Year +1 through Year +5. Why do the amounts for ending accounts receivable
using the growth rate from requirement d. differ from those using the growth rate from this requirement?
f. Compute the accounts receivable turnover for 2010 by dividing sales by the balance in accounts receivable at
the end of 2010 (instead of using average accounts receivable as in requirement a). Use this accounts receivable
turnover ratio to compute the projected balance in accounts receivable at the end of Year +1 through Year +5.
Also compute the percentage change in accounts receivable between the year-ends for Year +1 through Year
+5.
63. Benson sells books through retail stores and on the Web. For a retailer like Benson, inventory is a critical
element of the business and it is necessary to carry a wide array of titles. In 2010, sales totaled $5,122 million
and cost of sales and occupancy totaled $3,541 million. Inventories constitute the largest asset on Benson’s
balance sheet, totaling $1,203 million at the end of 2010 and $1,358 million at the end of 2009.
Required
b. Over the last two years, the number of Benson retail stores has remained fairly steady and sales have grown
at a compounded annual rate of 11.6 percent. Assume that the number of stores will remain constant and that
sales will continue to grow at an annual rate of 11.6 percent each year between Year +1 and Year +5. Also
assume that the future cost of goods sold to sales percentage will equal that realized in 2010 (which is very
similar to the cost of goods sold percentage over the past three years). Project the amount of inventory at the
end of Year +1 through Year +5 using the inventory turnover ratio computed in Part a. Also compute the
percentage change in inventories between each of the year-ends between 2010 and Year +5. Does the pattern of
growth in your projections of Benson inventory seem reasonable to you considering the assumptions of smooth
growth in sales and steady cost of goods sold percentages? Explain.
c. The changes in inventories in Part b display the sawtooth pattern depicted in Exhibit 10.5 of the text. Smooth
the changes in the inventory forecasts between 2010 and Year +5 using the compound annual growth rate in
inventories between the end of 2010 and the end of Year +5 implied by the projections in Part b. Does this
pattern of growth seem more reasonable? Explain.
d. Now suppose that instead of following the smoothing approach in Part c, you used the rate of growth in
inventory during 2010 to project future inventory balances at the end of Year +1 through Year +5. Use these
projections to compute the implied inventory turnover rates. Does this pattern of growth and efficiency in
inventory for Benson seem reasonable? Explain.
Chapter 10--Forecasting Financial Statements Key
2. Nichols and Wahlen's 2004 study showed that superior forecasting provides the potential to earn superior
security returns. Nichols and Wahlen's findings indicate
A. that an investor could earn excess returns if the investor could predict accurately the sign of the change in
earnings one year ahead.
B. that an investor could earn excess returns if the investor could predict accurately the magnitude of the change
in earnings one year ahead.
C. that an investor could earn excess returns if the investor could predict accurately the sign of the change in
cash flows from operations one year ahead.
D. that an investor could earn excess returns if the investor could predict accurately the sign of the change in
working capital one year ahead.
3. Financial statement forecasts rely on additivity within financial statements and articulation across financial
statements. Given this information forecasts of future growth in inventory will most likely affect growth in
A. accounts receivables.
B. accounts payable.
C. depreciation.
D. salary payable.
4. Financial statement forecasts rely on additivity within financial statements and articulation across financial
statements. Given this information sales growth forecasts will most likely affect growth in
A. accounts receivables.
B. accounts payable.
C. depreciation.
D. salary payable.
5. Projecting sales price changes depends on factors specific to the firm and its industry that might affect
demand and price elasticity. Which of the following types of companies would most likely be able to increase
prices?
A. A firm in a capital intensive industry that is expected to operate near capacity for the near future.
B. A firm in a capital intensive industry in which excess capacity exists.
C. A firm operating in an industry that is expected to experience technological improvements in its production
process.
D. A firm operating in an industry that is transitioning from the high growth to the maturity phase of its life
cycle.
6. Projecting sales price changes depends on factors specific to the firm and its industry that might affect
demand and price elasticity. Which of the following companies would most likely not be able to increase prices
in the near future?
A. A firm in a capital intensive industry that is expected to operate near capacity for the near future.
B. A firm in a capital intensive industry in which excess capacity exists.
C. A firm operating in an industry that is expected to maintain its current production processes.
D. A firm operating in an industry that is transitioning from the introduction phase to the high growth phase of
its life cycle.
7. If a company has very low operating leverage (i.e. a low proportion of fixed costs in the cost structure) and
no changes are expected in operations
A. percentage change income statement percentages can serve as the basis for projecting operating expenses.
B. using common-size income statement percentages will overstate future projected operating expenses.
C. using common-size income statement percentages will understate future projected operating expenses.
D. using common-size income statement percentages can serve as a reasonable basis for projecting future
operating expenses.
8. When projecting operating expenses it is important to determine the mix of fixed and variable costs, one clue
suggesting the presence of fixed costs is
A. the percentage change in cost of goods sold in prior years is significantly greater than the percentage change
in sales.
B. the percentage change in cost of goods sold in prior years is significantly less than the percentage change in
sales.
C. low capital intensity in the production process.
D. the percentage change in sales in prior years is significantly greater than the percentage change in
receivables.
9. To ensure that the financial statements articulate, it is important that the change in the cash balance on the
balance sheet each year agrees with
A. the cash collections from sales in the projected income statement.
B. the cash provided by or used by operations on the projected statement of cash flows.
C. the net change in cash on the projected statement of cash flows.
D. the net change in working capital from period to period.
10. An analyst using the inventory turnover ratio to calculate future levels of inventory may face the problem
that
A. the method reduces the potential understatement inherent in average balances.
B. the method can introduce artificial volatility in ending balances.
C. the method results in understating inventory each year.
D. the method results in overstating inventory each year.
11. Sparky’s
Sparky’s sells auto parts. Provided below is selected financial information from the company’s 2012 annual
report:
Using Sparky’s financial information what is the company’s inventory turnover ratio for 2012?
A. 0.69
B. 1.00
C. 3.35
D. 4.03
12. Sparky’s
Sparky’s sells auto parts. Provided below is selected financial information from the company’s 2012 annual
report:
Sparky’s forecasts that sales will grow by 25% in 2013 and that its cost of goods sold to sales ratio will be the same in 2013 as it was in 2012. If
these assumptions prove correct and Sparky’s inventory turnover ratio for 2013 is 4.5 what will be the level of inventory at the end of 2013?
A. $31,353
B. $38,320
C. $40,000
D. $42,314
Card Sharks, Inc. sells baseball cards and other memorabilia. The company tries to maintain a cash balance
equivalent to approximately 30 days of sales. Sales in 2011 amounted to $352,412 and the company expects
growth in 2012 of 33% and in 2013 of 40%.
Given the information provided about Card Sharks, what is the company’s 2012 projected year-end cash
balance?
A. $966
B. $28,965
C. $15,623
D. $38,524
Card Sharks, Inc. sells baseball cards and other memorabilia. The company tries to maintain a cash balance
equivalent to approximately 30 days of sales. Sales in 2011 amounted to $352,412 and the company expects
growth in 2012 of 33% and in 2013 of 40%.
Given the information provided about Card Sharks, what is the company’s 2013 projected annual sales?
A. $656,191
B. $493,377
C. $187,483
D. $542,333
15. Card Sharks, Inc.
Card Sharks, Inc. sells baseball cards and other memorabilia. The company tries to maintain a cash balance
equivalent to approximately 30 days of sales. Sales in 2011 amounted to $352,412 and the company expects
growth in 2012 of 33% and in 2013 of 40%.
Given the information provided about Card Sharks, what is the company’s 2013 projected cash balance?
A. $53,934
B. $49,524
C. $21,873
D. $38,524
16. All of the following are the fundamental bases for future payoffs to equity shareholders and share value
except:
A. earnings
B. cash flows
C. dividends
D. depreciation
17. All of the following are true regarding the key principles of forecasting except:
A. Financial statement forecasts need not be comprehensive.
B. Forecasts should not manifest wishful thinking.
C. Financial statement forecasts must be internally consistent.
D. Financial statement forecasts must rely on assumptions that have external validity.
18. Which of the following statements does not apply to preventing “garbage in, garbage out” when
implementing a forecasting game plan?
A. The quality of the financial statement forecasts will depend on the quality of the
forecast assumptions.
B. The quantities forecasted within financial statement forecasts will depend on the quantity of the forecast
assumptions.
C. Analysts should justify and evaluate the most important assumptions that reflect the critical risk and success
factors of the firm’s strategy.
D. Analysts can impose reality checks on the assumptions by analyzing the forecasted financial statements
using ratios, common-size, and rate-of-change financial statements.
19. If a firm competes in a capital-intensive industry with excess capacity, all of the following are true except:
A. price increases will be less likely.
B. price increases will be more likely.
C. companies in competitive industries face high exit barriers.
D. companies in competitive industries may experience future price decreases.
20. Using common-size balance sheet percentages to project individual assets, liabilities, or shareholders’ equity
has all of the following shortcomings except:
A. Individual assets, liabilities, and shareholders’ equity are not independent
of each other.
B. If a company experiences changing proportions for investments in securities among its assets, other asset
categories may show decreasing percentages in some years even though their dollar amounts are increasing.
C. Individual assets, liabilities, and shareholders’ equity are independent
of each other.
D. The common-size percentages do not permit the analyst to easily change
the assumptions about the future behavior of an individual asset or liability.
21. All of the following statements are true regarding ratios and forecasts except:
A. Ratios cannot confirm whether forecast assumptions will turn out to be correct.
B. Ratios can tell whether future sales growth was accurately captured.
C. Ratios cannot tell whether assumptions about future cash flows are realistic.
D. Ratios can tell whether growth rates for sales are consistent with past sales growth performance.
22. Projected financial statements can be used to assess the sensitivity of all of the following except:
A. a firm’s liquidity
B. a firm’s leverage to changes in assumptions
C. conditions under which the firm’s debt covenants may become binding
D. unusual patterns for projected total assets.
24. Financial ratio, percentage, and trend comparisons can be distorted by all of the following except:
A. aggressive revenue recognition practices.
B. the timing of asset purchases.
C. accounting for similar economic fundamentals in similar fashion.
D. the presence of nonrecurring items among the firms being analyzed.
25. All of the following are true regarding projected financial statements except:
A. The statement of cash flows is the most critical forecast since it reflects profitability rather than viability.
B. Preparing projected financial statements must incorporate a company's past performance records.
C. Preparing projected financial statements must incorporate a company's current performance records.
D. The income statement demonstrates immediate capability to service debt for banks or real potential for
growth in returns for venture capital.
26. As a firm progresses through the introduction life-cycle stage, what type of flexible account will it be more
likely to use to balance the balance sheet?
A. dividends.
B. growth related assets.
C. issued equity.
D. stock buy-backs.
27. As a firm progresses through the decline life-cycle stage, what type of flexible account will it be more likely
to use to balance the balance sheet?
A. issued debt.
B. growth related assets.
C. issued equity.
D. stock buy-backs.
28. As a firm progresses through the growth life-cycle stage, what type of flexible account will it be more likely
to use to balance the balance sheet?
A. issued debt.
B. paying down of debt.
C. dividends
D. stock buy-backs.
29. Financial statement forecasts are important analysis tools because forecasts of
______________________________ play a central role in valuation and many other financial decision
contexts.
future payoffs
32. Financial statement forecasts should rely on _________________________ across financial statements.
articulation
33. A firm in a mature industry with little expected change in its market share might anticipate volume increases
equal to the growth rate in the _________________________ within its geographic markets.
population
34. Firms which have differentiated ___________________________________ for its products may have a
greater potential to increase prices.
unique characteristics
35. It may be difficult to forecast sales for firms with _________________________ patterns because their
historical growth rates reflect wide variations in both direction and amount from year to year.
cyclical sales
36. A company that has a cost structure in which its costs grow at a lesser rate than its sale enjoys
___________________________________.
economies of scale
37. To develop forecasts of individual assets, the analyst must first link historical growth rates for individual
assets to historical growth rates in sales or other ___________________________________.
activity-based drivers
38. The analyst can capture projected levels of operating activity by using ______________________________
to develop forecasts for individual assets.
turnover rates
39. To develop forecasts of individual assets, the analyst must first link historical growth rates for individual
assets to historical growth rates in ____________________ and other activity-based drivers.
sales
40. For some types of assets, such as plant, property and equipment, asset growth typically
____________________ future sales growth.
leads
41. For some types of assets, such as accounts receivable, asset growth typically ____________________ future
sales growth.
lag
42. When projecting ____________________, the analyst should consider economy-wide factors such as the
expected rate of general price inflation in the economy.
prices
43. A firm in transition from the high growth to the mature phase of its life cycle, or a firm with significant
technological improvements in its production processes, might expect increases in
______________________________ but decreases in sales prices per unit.
sales volume
44. If a firm competes in a ___________________________________ industry that the analyst expects will
operate near capacity for the next few years, then price increases will be more likely.
capital-intensive
45. Analysts must develop realistic expectations for the outcomes of future business activities.
To develop these expectations, analysts build a set of _____________________________.
financial statement forecasts
46. Many times an analyst will compute ending accounts receivable or inventory balances using turnover ratios.
Discuss the advantage and disadvantage of using this methodology.
One advantage of using this method is that it reduces the potential understatement inherent in average balances.
48. One problem caused by using turnover ratios to calculate asset balances is that it can lead to volatility in
projected ending balances. What might an analyst do to reduce the "sawtooth" pattern caused by using turnover
ratios?
One thing an analyst might do is estimating the average rate of growth in the asset balance expected over a long
forecast period and then smooth each year-end balance using the average growth rate.
49. The first step in the forecasting game plan is to project sales and other other operating activities. Sales
numbers are determined by both a volume component and price component. Projecting prices depends on
factors specific to the firm and its industry that might affect demand and price elasticity. For the following types
of firms discuss whether it would be likely that the firm would be able to raise future prices:
a. A firm in a capital-intensive industry that is expected to operate near capacity for the near future.
b. A firm in an industry that is expected to experience numerous technological improvements.
c. A firm with products which are transitioning from the growth to maturity phase of the product life cycle.
d. A firm that has established a well known brand name and image.
Suggested answers:
a. In this case, due to capacity constraints the firm should be able to raise prices. Because the industry is capital intensive it is not likely
that a competitor could easily and quickly enter the market and steal market share by cutting prices.
b. This firm would probably not be able to raise prices due to efficiencies brought on by the technological change, although sales
volumes may increase.
c. This firm may find it more difficult to raise prices, as the product's sales reach a level in which demand is more stable. Thus, price
increases may result in consumers switching products, etc.
d. Firms with well known images and brand names may be better positioned to raise prices because consumers feel such brand loyalty.
50. As an analyst it is important when projecting sales to make estimates about future changes in sales volume.
Compare how you might make estimates about future sales value for a company in a mature industry and one in
a rapidly growing industry.
51. In comparison of 2010 to 2009 performance, Watson Company's inventory turnover decreased substantially,
although sales and inventory amounts were essentially unchanged.
Required:
During a corporate meeting you heard the following managers postulate why the decreased inventory turnover
ratio happened. Which statement best explains the decreased inventory turnover ratio and why?
a. The marketing manager said: The decreased inventory turnover ratio is due to an increase in the cost of goods
sold.
b. The operations manager said: The decreased inventory turnover ratio is due to increased gross profit
percentage.
c. The credit manager said: The decreased inventory turnover ratio is due to a decrease in the accounts
receivable turnover.
d. The shipping manager said: The decreased inventory turnover ratio is due to decreased total asset turnover.
The operations manager’s statement (b) best explains the decreased inventory turnover ratio. The gross profit
margin increased. Sales were unchanged, so the gross profit margin increase would be due to decreased cost of
goods sold. If inventory were also unchanged, the lower cost of goods sold would result in lower inventory
turnover.
52.
Bargains, Inc. manufactures and markets toys. Selected income statement data from 2010 and 2009 appear
below:
Bargains, Inc.
Selected Income Statement data
Fiscal year end 12/31/2010 12/31/2009
(amounts in thousands of dollars)
Net sales $4,885,340 $4,637,924
Cost of Goods Sold -3,824,353 -3,638,990
Gross profit 1,060,987 998,934
Required:
a. An analyst can sometimes estimate the variable cost as a percentage of sales for a particular cost by dividing the amount of the
change in the cost item between two years by the amount of the change in sales for those two years. The analyst can then multiply the
variable cost percentage times sales to determine the total variable cost. Subtracting the variable cost yields the fixed cost for that
particular item. Follow this procedure to determine the cost structure for costs of goods sold for Bargains, Inc.
b. Bargains, Inc. projects sales to grow at the following percentages in future years: 2011, 9 percent; 2012, 11 percent; 2013, 15 percent.
Using this information project sales, cost of goods sold and gross profit for Bargains, Inc. for 2011 to 2013.
a.
Change in COGS $185,363
Change in sales $247,416
Variable cost percentage 75%
Fixed Costs:
2010 $160,348
b.
2011 2012 2013
Projected Growth Rate 9% 11% 15%
Net Sales 5,325,021 5,910,773 6,797,389
53. Glad Rags, Inc. sells women's clothes. Provided below is selected financial statement information:
Required:
a. Compute the inventory turnover ratio for 2010.
b. Clothes, Inc. projects that sales will grow at a compound rate of 7% per year for years 2011-2013 and that the cost of goods sold to sales
percentage will equal that realized in 2010. Compute the projected implied level of inventory at the end of 2011 to 2013.
b.
Inventory Average Inventory Inventory Percentage
Sales COGS Turnover Inventories beg. Year end year change
2010 47,895.00 $35,952 6.85 5,248 4,948 5,548 12%
2011 51,247.65 $38,469 6.85 5,616 5,548 5,684 2%
2012 54,834.99 $41,161 6.85 6,009 5,684 6,334 11%
2013 58,673.43 $44,043 6.85 6,430 6,334 6,525 3%
54. Office Mart, Inc. sells numerous office supply products through a national distribution center. The company
has focused on maintaining a cash balance equivalent to approximately 14 days of sales. Sales in 2010
amounted to $125,980,673 and the company expects growth in 2011 of 11% and in 2012 of 15%. Given this
information determine Office Mart, Inc.'s projected year-end cash balance for 2011 and 2012.
55. The following information about Douglas Corp.’s Accounts Receivable and Sales are presented below:
Year
2012-Beginnin
g Balance of
A/R = $791M
Year 2012
-Ending
Balance of A/R
= $807M
Year 2012 -
Sales =
$3,002M
Assumptions:
Sales growth
will be equal to
6% per year
A/R turnover
will stay
constant
throughout the
forecast period
Required:
a. Using this information, forecast Douglas Corp.’s the growth in Accounts Receivable for years 2013-2017.
b. What problem does a constant A/R turnover assumption cause?
c. Provide a solution to the problem caused by a constant A/R turnover assumption.
a.
b. The constant A/R turnover assumption results in the sawtooth forecasting problem.
c.
2012 2013* 2014* 201 2016* 201
5* 7*
Sales $3,002 $3,182 $3,373 $3,575 $3,790 $4,017
Beg. A/R balance $791 807 887 909 995 1,023
Ending A/R balance $807 887 909 995 1,023 1,116
One potential solution is to: not use the average balance sheet account balance when initially calculating turnover ratios-but rather base it on the
ending balance. Then forecast using average turnover ratios and then smooth changes using the compound average growth rate.
56. The following balance sheet and income statement pertain to Goode Corp., using the following assumptions
complete a forecasted 2013 income statement:
Assumpt
ions for
2013:
Revenue growth rate 32%
COGS 64% of sales
Operating expenses 23% of sales
Interest expense 10% of
beginning
long-term
debt
Tax rate 35%
Goode Corp. Consolidated Statement of Income
(Thousands except per share amounts) 2012
These data represent a summary of your first-iteration forecast amounts for Year 1. Simmons uses dividends as
a flexible financial account.
Year + 1
Operating Income $ 58
Interest Expense 8
Income before Tax $ 50
Tax Provision (20.0 percent effective tax rate) 10
Net Income $ 40
Total Assets $200
Accrued Liabilities $ 43
Long-Term Debt $ 80
Common Stock, at par $ 20
Retained Earnings (at the beginning of Year 1) $ 34
A. See the information for Simmons Company.
Compute the amount of dividends you can assume that Simmons will pay in order to balance your projected balance sheet. Present the projected
balance sheet.
Accrued Liabilities $ 43
Long-Term Debt $ 80
Common Stock (at par) $ 20
Beginning Retained Earnings $ 34
Year +1 Net Income $ 40
Total Liabilities and Equity
before Plugging Dividends $ 217
Accrued Liabilities $ 43
Long-Term Debt $ 80
Common Stock (at par) $ 20
Ending Retained Earnings $ 57 = ($34 + $40 – $17)
Total Liabilities and Equity $ 200
B. This problem asks students to compute the plug to long-term debt to balance the balance sheet for Simmons
Company for Year +1. This problem introduces circularity to balancing the balance sheet because the amount
of debt needed depends on net income, which is affected by the interest expense on the amount of debt
needed. Students should input these amounts into a spreadsheet and have the spreadsheet compute the amounts
iteratively. Students should obtain the following amounts:
Year +1
Projected Income Statement Amounts
Operating Income $ 58.00
Interest Expense –8.87
Income before Tax $ 49.13
Tax Provision (20.0 percent rate) –9.83
Net Income $ 39.30
Year +1
Projected Balance Sheet Amounts
Total Assets $ 200
Accrued Liabilities $ 43
Long-Term Debt $ 88.70
Common Stock (at par) $ 20
Retained Earnings (end of Year +1) $ 48.30 = ($34+$39.30–$25)
Total Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity $ 200
58. Repair Specialists is a leading retailer of home improvement products. It operates large warehouse-style
stores. Despite declining sales and difficult economic conditions in 2009 and 2010, Repair Specialists continued
to invest in new stores. The following table provides summary data for Repair Specialists.
Required
a. Use the preceding data for Repair Specialists to compute average revenues per store,
capital spending per new store, and ending inventory per store in 2010.
b. Assume that Repair Specialists will add 100 new stores by the end of Year 1. Use
the data from 2010 to project Year 1 sales revenues, capital spending, and ending
inventory. Assume that each new store will be open for business for an average of
one-half year in Year 1. For simplicity, assume that in Year 1, Repair Specialists’ sales
revenues will grow, but only because it will open new stores.
In this problem, students work through the computations to project revenue, capital expenditures, and ending
inventory for Repair Specialists, using 100 new stores as the driver of growth forecasts in Year +1. The
problem requires students to use the average number of stores to compute sales, the number of new stores to
compute capital expenditures, and the ending number of total stores to compute ending inventory. The data and
computations follow:
Assume that Techtronics depreciates all property, plant, and equipment using the straight-line
depreciation method and zero salvage value. Assume that Intel spends $6,000 on new
depreciable assets in Year 1 and does not sell or retire any property, plant, and equipment
during Year 1.
a. Compute the average useful life that Techtronics used for depreciation in 2010.
b. Project total depreciation expense for Year 1 using the following steps: (i) project
depreciation expense for Year 1 on existing property, plant, and equipment at the
end of 2010; (ii) project depreciation expense on capital expenditures in Year 1
assuming that Intel takes a full year of depreciation in the first year of service; and
(iii) sum the results of (i) and (ii) to obtain total depreciation expense for Year 1.
c. Project the Year 1 ending balance in property, plant, and equipment, both at cost
and net of accumulated depreciation.
This problem gets students working through the computations to project property, plant, and equipment and
depreciation expense for Year +1 for Techtronics, a leading manufacturer of computer chips.
a. The average useful life that Techtronics used in 2010 for depreciation was 10.80 years, computed as
follows:
b. Depreciation expense for Year +1 on (i) existing property, plant, and equipment at the end of 2010; (ii)
capital expenditures in Year +1 assuming that there is $6,000 in expenditures on depreciable assets in Year +1
and assuming that Intel takes a full year of depreciation in the first year of service; and (iii) the sum of (i) and
(ii) to obtain total depreciation expense for Year +1:
c. The Year +1 ending balance in property, plant, and equipment, both at cost and net of accumulated
depreciation:
Nuwak
Sales $6,266 $11,377
Cost of Products Sold 5,997 9,129
Gross Profit $ 269 $ 2,248
Gross Margin 4.3% 19.8%
Industry analysts anticipate the following annual changes in sales for the next five years:
Year +1, 5 percent increase; Year +2, 10 percent increase; Year +3, 20 percent increase; Year +4, 10 percent decrease; Year +5, 20 percent decrease.
Required
a. The analyst can sometimes estimate the variable cost as a percentage of sales for a
particular cost (for example, cost of products sold) by dividing the amount of the
change in the cost item between two years by the amount of the change in sales for
those two years. The analyst can then multiply the variable-cost percentage times
sales to estimate the total variable cost. Subtracting the variable cost from the total
cost yields an estimate of the fixed cost for that particular cost item. Follow this procedure
to estimate the manufacturing cost structure (variable cost as a percentage of
sales, total variable costs, and total fixed costs) for cost of products sold for both Arco and Nuwak in Year 4.
b. Discuss the structure of manufacturing cost (that is, fixed versus variable) for each
firm in light of the manufacturing process and type of product produced.
c. Using the analysts’ forecasts of sales changes, compute the projected sales, cost of
products sold, gross profit, and gross margin (gross profit as a percentage of sales)
of each firm for Year +1 through Year +5.
d. Why do the levels and variability of the gross margin percentages differ for these two
firms for Year +1 through Year +5?
Arco:
Variable Cost per Dollar of Sales = ($4,554 – $3,887)/($5,217 – $4,042) =
$0.568
Total Variable Cost = $0.568 x $5,217 = $2,963 (65% of cost of products sold)
Total Fixed Cost = $4,554 – $2,963 = $1,591 (35% of cost of products sold)
Nuwak:
Variable Cost per Dollar of Sales = ($9,129 – $5,997)/($11,377 – $6,266)
= $0.613
Total Variable Cost = $0.613 x $11,377 = $6,974 (76% of cost of products sold)
Total Fixed Cost = $9,129 – $6,974 = $2,155 (24% of cost of products sold)
b. Arco is more capital-intensive than Nuwak and therefore has a higher proportion of fixed costs and a
lower proportion of variable costs in its cost structure. Arco also offers products at the higher end of the market
than Nuwak does and should, therefore, have higher selling prices and a higher gross margin. Both of these
factors explain the lower variable cost as a percentage of sales for Arco.
c. (Amounts in Millions)
Arco
Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Sales $5,478 $6,026 $7,231 $6,508 $5,206
Less Cost of Products Sold:
Variable Costs (.568 of sales) 3,112 3,423 4,107 3,697 2,957
Fixed Costs 1,591 1,591 1,591 1,591 1,591
Total Costs of Products Sold 4,703 5,014 5,698 5,288 4,548
Gross Profit $ 775 $1,012 $1,533 $1,220 $ 658
Gross Margin % 14.1% 16.8% 21.2% 18.7% 12.6%
Nuwak
Year +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year +4 Year +5
Sales $11,946 $13,140 $15,768 $14,191 $11,353
Less Cost of Products Sold:
Variable Costs (.613 of sales) 7,323 8,055 9,666 8,699 6,959
Fixed Costs 2,155 2,155 2,155 2,155 2,155
Total Costs of Products Sold 9,478 10,210 11,821 10,854 9,114
Gross Profit $2,467 $2,931 $3,947 $3,337 $2,239
Gross Margin % 20.7% 22.3% 25.0% 23.5% 19.7%
d. The average gross margin of Arco is 16.7 percent, with a standard deviation of 3.5 percent. The average gross margin of Nuwak is 22.2
percent, with a standard deviation of 2.1 percent. Despite a higher variable cost per dollar of sales and larger total fixed costs, Nuwak generates a
higher gross margin than Arco because Nuwak’s much larger size creates economies of scale. For example, Nuwak’s fixed costs are 24 percent of
cost of products sold compared to Arco’s fixed costs, which amount to 35 percent of the cost of products sold. The larger variability of the gross
margin for Arco also occurs because of the higher proportion of fixed costs in its cost structure. Compared with Nuwak, Arco realizes greater
incremental economies of scale as sales increase but greater diseconomies of scale as sales decrease. For example, given the same rates of sales
growth over Years +1 to +3, Arco’s gross margin grows from 14.1 percent to 21.2 percent, whereas Nuwak’s gross margin percentage grows from
only 20.7 percent to 25.0 percent.
61. Saunders Corporation manufactures consumer electronics products. Selected income statement data for
2009 and 2010 follow (amounts in millions of dollars):
c. Saunders Corporation discloses that it expects sales to grow at the following percentages
in future years: Year 1, 12 percent; Year 2, 10 percent; Year 3, 8 percent; Year 4, 6 percent. Project sales, cost of goods sold, selling and
administrative expenses, and operating income before income taxes for Saunders for Year 1 to Year 4 using the cost structure amounts derived in
requirements a. and b.
d. Compute the ratio of operating income before income taxes to sales for Year 1 through Year 4.
e. Interpret the changes in the ratio computed in requirement d. in light of the expected changes in sales.
e. The percentage of operating income before income taxes to sales increases over time because Saunders
Corporation spreads its fixed operating costs over a larger sales volume. These increasing percentages do not
portray a full picture of the changes in the firm’s profitability. Although sales are projected to increase, they
increase at a continually decreasing rate. It is likely that Saunders Corporation would adjust its selling prices,
manufacturing costs, or selling and administrative costs in response to the projected declining rate of growth in
sales. Such adjustments would change the cost structure computed in requirements a. and b. above.
62. Hart designs, manufactures, and markets toys in domestic and international markets. Sales during 2010
totaled $4,022 million. Accounts receivable totaled $655 million at the beginning of 2010 and $612 million at
the end of 2010.
Required
a. Use the average balance to compute the accounts receivable turnover ratio for Hart for 2010.
b. Hart generated a compound annual sales growth rate of 13.0 percent over the past two years. Assume that
Hart's sales will continue to grow at that rate each year for Year +1 through Year +5 and that the accounts
receivable turnover ratio each year will equal the ratio computed in requirement a. for 2010. Project the amount
of accounts receivable at year-end through Year +5 based on the accounts receivable turnover computed in
requirement a. Also compute the percentage change in accounts receivable between each of the year-ends
through Year +5.
c. Does the pattern of growth in your projections of Hart's accounts receivable seem
reasonable considering the assumptions of smooth growth in sales and steady turnover? Explain.
d. The changes in accounts receivable computed in requirement b. display the sawtooth pattern depicted in
Exhibit 10.5 in the text. Smooth the changes in accounts receivable by computing the year-end accounts
receivable balances for Year 1 through Year 5 using the compound annual growth rate in accounts receivable
between the end of 2010 and the end of Year +1 from requirement b.
e. Smooth the changes in accounts receivable using the compound annual growth rate in accounts receivable
between the end of 2010 and the end of Year +4 from requirement b. Apply this growth rate to compute
accounts receivable at the end of Year +1 through Year +5. Why do the amounts for ending accounts receivable
using the growth rate from requirement d. differ from those using the growth rate from this requirement?
f. Compute the accounts receivable turnover for 2010 by dividing sales by the balance in accounts receivable at
the end of 2010 (instead of using average accounts receivable as in requirement a). Use this accounts receivable
turnover ratio to compute the projected balance in accounts receivable at the end of Year +1 through Year +5.
Also compute the percentage change in accounts receivable between the year-ends for Year +1 through Year
+5.
(In Millions).
a. Hart accounts receivable turnover: $4,022/[.5($655 + $612)] = 6.35.
b. Percentage
Accounts Average Ending Accounts Receivable Change in
Receivable Accounts Beginning End of Accounts
Sales Turnover Receivable of Year Year Receivable
Year +1 $4,543 6.35 $ 716 $ 612 $ 819 +33.8%
Year +2 $5,132 6.35 808 819 798 –2.6%
Year +3 $5,797 6.35 913 798 1,029 +29.0%
Year +4 $6,548 6.35 1,031 1,029 1,034 +0.5%
Year +5 $7,397 6.35 1,165 1,034 1,298 +25.5%
c. The changes in receivables exhibit the sawtooth pattern described in the chapter and in Exhibit
10.5. Such a pattern does not seem reasonable in light of the assumptions of smooth growth in sales and steady
accounts receivable turnover. The cause of the sawtooth pattern is the slight drop in receivables during 2010,
which causes the change in receivables in Year +1 to be unusually large to compensate; the same holds true for
Year +2, Year +3, and Year +4, and so on.
d. The increase in accounts receivable from $612 million at the of 2010 to $1,296 million at the end of Year
+5 represents a compound annual rate of growth of 16.2 percent over those five years. Using this rate of
growth to project a smooth pattern of receivables growth leads to the following projections:
e. An increase in accounts receivable from $612 million to $1,034 million over four years represents a
compound annual rate of growth of 14.0 percent.
The difference in growth rate in Parts d. and e. results from using an ending accounts receivable date that is
an upward “sawtooth” (Part c.) and a downward “sawtooth” (Part d.). Observe from Part b. that accounts
receivable increased 0.5 percent during Year +4 (a down “sawtooth”) but increased 25.3 percent during Year +5
(an up “sawtooth”).
Required
b. Over the last two years, the number of Benson retail stores has remained fairly steady and sales have grown
at a compounded annual rate of 11.6 percent. Assume that the number of stores will remain constant and that
sales will continue to grow at an annual rate of 11.6 percent each year between Year +1 and Year +5. Also
assume that the future cost of goods sold to sales percentage will equal that realized in 2010 (which is very
similar to the cost of goods sold percentage over the past three years). Project the amount of inventory at the
end of Year +1 through Year +5 using the inventory turnover ratio computed in Part a. Also compute the
percentage change in inventories between each of the year-ends between 2010 and Year +5. Does the pattern of
growth in your projections of Benson inventory seem reasonable to you considering the assumptions of smooth
growth in sales and steady cost of goods sold percentages? Explain.
c. The changes in inventories in Part b display the sawtooth pattern depicted in Exhibit 10.5 of the text. Smooth
the changes in the inventory forecasts between 2010 and Year +5 using the compound annual growth rate in
inventories between the end of 2010 and the end of Year +5 implied by the projections in Part b. Does this
pattern of growth seem more reasonable? Explain.
d. Now suppose that instead of following the smoothing approach in Part c, you used the rate of growth in
inventory during 2010 to project future inventory balances at the end of Year +1 through Year +5. Use these
projections to compute the implied inventory turnover rates. Does this pattern of growth and efficiency in
inventory for Benson seem reasonable? Explain.
(Assume Amounts in Thousands).
a. Benson inventory turnover: $3,541/[.5($1,358 + $1,203)] = 2.77
These projections exhibit substantial volatility in ending inventory, which is unrealistic considering the
assumptions of smooth growth in sales and costs of sales.
c. The above projections indicate an increase in inventories from $1,203 to $2,486 over five years,
representing a compound annual rate of growth of 15.62 percent [= ($2,486/$1,203)^(1/5)–1].
Ending Inventories
Year +1 $ 1,203 x 1.1562 = $1,391
Year +2 $1,391 x 1.1562 = $1,608
Year +3 $1,608 x 1.1562 = $1,859
Year +4 $1,859 x 1.1562 = $2,150
Year +5 $2,150 x 1.1562 = $2,486
These smoothed inventory forecasts more closely match the assumptions of smooth growth in sales and costs of
goods sold.
d. Benson inventories actually decreased from $1,358 at the end of 2009 to $1,203 at the end of 2010, a
decline of 11.4 percent. Using this growth rate leads to the following projections of inventories and implied
turnover rates:
This problem demonstrates that simply assuming that past growth rates will persist can lead to unreasonable
forecasts. In this case, it is highly unlikely that Benson can continue to decrease inventory while at the same
time generating an increase in sales. It would be very unusual for a retail bookstore such as Benson to be able
to achieve 8.77 inventory turns a year by Year +5.
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the red glare and the muffled tom-toms. There are vocal qualities
peculiar to men, and vocal qualities peculiar to beasts; and it is
terrible to hear the one when the source should yield the other.
Animal fury and orgiastic license here whipped themselves to
demoniac heights by howls and squawking ecstasies that tore and
reverberated through those nighted woods like pestilential tempests
from the gulfs of hell. Now and then the less organized ululations
would cease, and from what seemed a well-drilled chorus of hoarse
voices would rise in singsong chant that hideous phrase or ritual:
"Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn."
Then the men, having reached a spot where the trees were thinner,
came suddenly in sight of the spectacle itself. Four of them reeled,
one fainted, and two were shaken into a frantic cry which the mad
cacophony of the orgy fortunately deadened. Legrasse dashed
swamp water on the face of the fainting man, and all stood trembling
and nearly hypnotized with horror.
In a natural glade of the swamp stood a grassy island of perhaps an
acre's extent, clear of trees and tolerably dry. On this now leaped
and twisted a more indescribable horde of human abnormality than
any but a Sime or an Angarola could paint. Void of clothing, this
hybrid spawn were braying, bellowing and writhing about a
monstrous ring-shaped bonfire; in the center of which, revealed by
occasional rifts in the curtain of flame, stood a great granite monolith
some eight feet in height; on top of which, incongruous in its
diminutiveness, rested the noxious carven statuette. From a wide
circle of ten scaffolds set up at regular intervals with the flame-girt
monolith as a center hung, head downward, the oddly marred bodies
of the helpless squatters who had disappeared. It was inside this
circle that the ring of worshipers jumped and roared, the general
direction of the mass motion being from left to right in endless
bacchanale between the ring of bodies and the ring of fire.
It may have been only imagination and it may have been only
echoes which induced one of the men, an excitable Spaniard, to
fancy he heard antiphonal responses to the ritual from some far and
unillumined spot deeper within the wood of ancient legendry and
horror. This man, Joseph D. Galvez, I later met and questioned; and
he proved distractingly imaginative. He indeed went so far as to hint
of the faint beating of great wings, and of a glimpse of shining eyes
and a mountainous white bulk beyond the remotest trees—but I
suppose he had been hearing too much native superstition.
Actually, the horrified pause of the men was of comparatively brief
duration. Duty came first; and although there must have been nearly
a hundred mongrel celebrants in the throng, the police relied on their
firearms and plunged determinedly into the nauseous rout. For five
minutes the resultant din and chaos were beyond description. Wild
blows were struck, shots were fired, and escapes were made; but in
the end Legrasse was able to count some forty-seven sullen
prisoners, whom he forced to dress in haste and fall into line
between two rows of policemen. Five of the worshipers lay dead,
and two severely wounded ones were carried away on improvised
stretchers by their fellow-prisoners. The image on the monolith, of
course, was carefully removed and carried back by Legrasse.
Examined at headquarters after a trip of intense strain and
weariness, the prisoners all proved to be men of a very low, mixed-
blooded, and mentally aberrant type. Most were seamen, and a
sprinkling of negroes and mulattoes, largely West Indians or Brava
Portuguese from the Cape Verde Islands, gave a coloring of
voodooism to the heterogeneous cult. But before many questions
were asked, it became manifest that something far deeper and older
than negro fetishism was involved. Degraded and ignorant as they
were, the creatures held with surprizing consistency to the central
idea of their loathsome faith.
They worshiped, so they said, the Great Old Ones who lived ages
before there were any men, and who came to the young world out of
the sky. Those Old Ones were gone now, inside the earth and under
the sea; but their dead bodies had told their secrets in dreams to the
first man, who formed a cult which had never died. This was that
cult, and the prisoners said it had always existed and always would
exist, hidden in distant wastes and dark places all over the world
until the time when the great priest Cthulhu, from his dark house in
the mighty city of R'lyeh under the waters, should rise and bring the
earth again beneath his sway. Some day he would call, when the
stars were ready, and the secret cult would always be waiting to
liberate him.
Meanwhile no more must be told. There was a secret which even
torture could not extract. Mankind was not absolutely alone among
the conscious things of earth, for shapes came out of the dark to visit
the faithful few. But these were not the Great Old Ones. No man had
ever seen the Old Ones. The carven idol was great Cthulhu, but
none might say whether or not the others were precisely like him. No
one could read the old writing now, but things were told by word of
mouth. The chanted ritual was not the secret—that was never
spoken aloud, only whispered. The chant meant only this: "In his
house at R'lyeh dead Cthulhu waits dreaming."
This was all, together with the picture of the hellish image; but what a
train of ideas it started in my mind! Here were new treasuries of data
on the Cthulhu Cult, and evidence that it had strange interests at sea
as well as on land. What motive prompted the hybrid crew to order
back the Emma as they sailed about with their hideous idol? What
was the unknown island on which six of the Emma's crew had died,
and about which the mate Johansen was so secretive? What had the
vice-admiralty's investigation brought out, and what was known of
the noxious cult in Dunedin? And most marvelous of all, what deep
and more than natural linkage of dates was this which gave a malign
and now undeniable significance to the various turns of events so
carefully noted by my uncle?
March 1st—our February 28th according to the International Date
Line—the earthquake and storm had come. From Dunedin the Alert
and her noisome crew had darted eagerly forth as if imperiously
summoned, and on the other side of the earth poets and artists had
begun to dream of a strange, dank Cyclopean city whilst a young
sculptor had molded in his sleep the form of the dreaded Cthulhu.
March 23rd the crew of the Emma landed on an unknown island and
left six men dead; and on that date the dreams of sensitive men
assumed a heightened vividness and darkened with dread of a giant
monster's malign pursuit, whilst an architect had gone mad and a
sculptor had lapsed suddenly into delirium! And what of this storm of
April 2nd—the date on which all dreams of the dank city ceased, and
Wilcox emerged unharmed from the bondage of strange fever? What
of all this—and of those hints of old Castro about the sunken, star-
born Old Ones and their coming reign; their faithful cult and their
mastery of dreams? Was I tottering on the brink of cosmic horrors
beyond man's power to bear? If so, they must be horrors of the mind
alone, for in some way the second of April had put a stop to
whatever monstrous menace had begun its siege of mankind's soul.
That was all. After that Johansen only brooded over the idol in the
cabin and attended to a few matters of food for himself and the
laughing maniac by his side. He did not try to navigate after the first
bold flight, for the reaction had taken something out of his soul. Then
came the storm of April 2nd, and a gathering of the clouds about his
consciousness. There is a sense of spectral whirling through liquid
gulfs of infinity, of dizzying rides through reeling universes on a
comet's tail, and of hysterical plunges from the pit to the moon and
from the moon back again to the pit, all livened by a cachinnating
chorus of the distorted, hilarious elder gods and the green, bat-
winged mocking imps of Tartarus.
Out of that dream came rescue—the Vigilant, the vice-admiralty
court, the streets of Dunedin, and the long voyage back home to the
old house by the Egeberg. He could not tell—they would think him
mad. He would write of what he knew before death came, but his
wife must not guess. Death would be a boon if only it could blot out
the memories.
That was the document I read, and now I have placed it in the tin box
beside the bas-relief and the papers of Professor Angell. With it shall
go this record of mine—this test of my own sanity, wherein is pieced
together that which I hope may never be pieced together again. I
have looked upon all that the universe has to hold of horror, and
even the skies of spring and the flowers of summer must ever
afterward be poison to me. But I do not think my life will be long. As
my uncle went, as poor Johansen went, so I shall go. I know too
much, and the cult still lives.
Cthulhu still lives, too, I suppose, again in that chasm of stone which
has shielded him since the sun was young. His accursed city is
sunken once more, for the Vigilant sailed over the spot after the April
storm; but his ministers on earth still bellow and prance and slay
around idol-capped monoliths in lonely places. He must have been
trapped by the sinking whilst within his black abyss, or else the world
would by now be screaming with fright and frenzy. Who knows the
end? What has risen may sink, and what has sunk may rise.
Loathsomeness waits and dreams in the deep, and decay spreads
over the tottering cities of men. A time will come—but I must not and
can not think! Let me pray that, if I do not survive this manuscript, my
executors may put caution before audacity and see that it meets no
other eye.