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 CHAPTER 6

Section 6.1
Statistical Literacy and Critical Thinking

1 No, we should not expect to get exactly heads. As shown in Figure 6.1,
you would get exactly 50 heads only about 8% of the time. However, if
the coin is fair, you should expect to get a result that is fairly
close to 50 heads.
2 A result is statistically significant if it is unlikely to have
occurred by chance.
3 Statistical significance applies to samples. If you conducted a census
that allowed you to determine the actual value of a population
parameter, then there would be no need to quantify the probability that
the value is correct, since it would have been measured. In contrast,
when you measure a sample statistic, there is always some probability
that it does not accurately reflect the true population parameter, and
the concept of statistical significance is designed to quantify that
uncertainty.
4 Statistical significance at the 0.05 level means that there is a 0.05
(or 5%, or 1 in 20) or less probability that the result occurred by
chance, and statistical significance at the 0.01 level means that there
is a 0.01 (or 1%, or 1 in 100)or less probability that the result
occurred by chance. A result that is statistically significant at the
0.05 level is not automatically also significant at the 0.01 level,
because a probability of 0.05 or less does not necessarily mean that
there is a 0.01 or less chance. However, a result that is statistically
significant at the 0.01 level is automatically also significant at the
0.05 level, because a probability of 0.01 or less is also less than a
0.05 chance.
5 This statement does not make sense. The term statistical significance
has a particular meaning with regard to the probability that results
occurred by chance; it does not simply mean that a topic is important.
6 This statement makes sense. Statistical significance is a measure of
the probability of the observed difference happening by chance. If the
probability of these differences happening is almost 50%, it would be
likely to have happened by chance!
7 This statement does not make sense. The question is not whether we
expect to get exactly 501 girls, but whether the result differs
significantly from what would be expected to occur by pure chance,
given that we always expect some distribution of results around the
most likely value. Instead of focusing on the probability of exactly
501 girls, we should include the probability of any other outcomes that
are more extreme, that is, should consider the probability of 501 or
more girls.
8 This statement does not make sense. At any level of statistical
significance, there is always some probability that the result is
incorrect.

Concepts and Applications

9 Statistically significant. The probability of ten correct answers with

random guesses is very small and much less than 0.05 (5%) which is a
common measure of statistical significance. (The student was probably
prepared for the quiz.)

73 Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.

74 CHAPTER 6, PROBABILITY IN STATISTICS

10 Statistically significant. Given that Independents typically make up only

about 1 in 3 voters, the result of getting 25 Independents among 25 randomly
selected voters is extreme, and it is unlikely to occur by chance. The
probability is less than 0.05 (5%).
11 Statistically significant. The chance of getting a 6 in each of 10 rolls is
(1/6)10 = 0.0000000165, which is much less than 0.05.
12 Not statistically significant. The result could have occurred by chance.
The chance of not getting a single 6 in 10 rolls is (5/6)10 = 0.162, which is
greater than 0.05.
13 Statistically significant. The result is unlikely to occur by chance. It
would be rare to see that many passengers of a single gender.
14 Statistically significant. The result is unlikely to occur by chance. A
subway car containing 50 men (and no women), all of whom are bald, seems
unlikely.
15 Statistically significant. The result is unlikely to occur by chance. The
population in question has a proportion of almost 80% Americans of Mexican
ancestry and yet the sample taken showed a proportion of only 39% Americans
of Mexican ancestry.
16 Not statistically significant. The rate of headaches is about 6% in the
treatment group and 5% in the control group, and the difference between
those two rates could easily be explained by chance.
17 Even though the sample size is relatively small, such a large (21%)
improvement in mileage is most likely significant.
18 Based on the sample sizes (73 and 83 patients) and the large difference
between the two success rates (92% – 72% = 20%), it appears that the results
are statistically significant.
19 With 945 babies, the number of girls would usually be around 945/2 = 472.5,
so the result of 879 girls is a substantial difference (879 – 472.5 = 406.5)
from the results expected by chance. The results appear to be statistically
significant.
20 The results do have statistical significance at the 0.05 level, but not at
the 0.01 level. The bed nets do appear to be effective in reducing malaria,
although they do not guarantee protection from malaria. This makes some
sense if the subjects do not spend all of their time in bed. Mosquitoes can
bite at any time of day, not just at night. Preventing bites at night with
bed nets is not total protection.
21 a) If 100 samples were selected, the mean temperature would be 98.20°F or
less in 5 or fewer of the samples if the true mean were 98.60°F.
b) Selecting a sample with a mean this small is extremely unlikely if the
true mean is 98.60°F and would not be expected by chance.
22 The likelihood of such a difference occurring simply by chance is less than
0.01% (or 1 in 10,000), so the difference is likely due to the use of the
seat belts.
23 Yes, statistically significant. The result is unlikely to occur by chance.
24 Not statistically significant. The probability of getting another sample
with the same results is 87% and the result could easily occur by chance.

Section 6.2
Statistical Literacy and Critical Thinking

1 An outcome is the most basic possible result of an observation or

experiment. An event is a collection of one or more outcomes that share a
property of interest. For example, if you toss two coins, one possible
outcome is HT and another possible outcome is TH, but if you are interested
in whether the coin comes up heads, both of these outcomes represent the
same event of 1 head (and 1 tail).

Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.

 SECTION 6.2, BASICS OF PROBABILITY 75

2 The notation P(A) means the probability that event A will occur. We
often denote events by letters or symbols. The range of possible values
for P(A) is from 0 to 1 (inclusive), with 0 meaning there is no chance
that event A will occur and 1 meaning it is certain that event A will
occur.
3 The theoretical method is based on the assumption that all outcomes are
equally likely and relies on the known probabilities of individual
outcomes. The relative frequency method uses past data to make a
prediction about a future probability. The subjective method bases
probability on intuition and judgment. Examples will vary.
4 A probability distribution represents the probabilities of all possible
events. It can be displayed using a table with two columns (events and
probability of those events) or a graph or a formula.
5 This statement makes sense. The four different outcomes are HTTT, THTT,
TTHT, TTTH.
6 This statement makes sense. There are no months with more than 31 days,
so there is no chance of selecting such a month at random.
7 This statement makes sense. Subjective probabilities are based on
intuition, and it’s certainly reasonable to think that there is a 50%
chance that calculator batteries will need to be replaced during the
next 3 years.
8 This statement does not make sense. The two possibilities are
complements and therefore must always total to 1, but that does not
mean they are each 1/2.

Concepts and Applications

9 There are eight possible outcomes: GGG, GGB, GBG, BGG, GBB, BGB, BBG,
BBB. Only one outcome (GGG) corresponds to the event of three girls:
P(all girls) = 1/8, or 0.125.
10 There are 16 possible outcomes: GGGG, GGGB, GGBG, GBGG, BGGG, GGBB,
GBGB, GBBG, BGGB, BBGG, BGBG, GBBB, BGBB, BBGB, BBBG, BBBB. There are 6
possible outcomes that include two boys and two girls, taking into
account birth order: P(2 boys and 2 girls) = 6/16, or 0.375.
11 3/4, assuming that heads and tails are equally likely to occur. There
are four possible outcomes (HH, TH, HT, TT), and only three of them
include one head or two heads.
12 1/2, assuming all sides of die are equally likely to be rolled. There
are six numbers, and half of them are odd.
13 30/365 = 6/73, or 0.0822, assuming that the selection is random in the
sense that all of the 365 days have the same chance of being selected.
14 1/5, or 0.2, assuming that the guess is random in the sense that all
five possible answers have the same chance of being selected.
15 4/52 = 1/13, assuming that each card is equally likely to be drawn and
because there are four aces in the deck of 52 cards.
16 1/7, assuming that births on each day of week are equally likely.
17 1/365, assuming that births on the 365 days are equally likely.
18 1/2, or 0.5, assuming that heads and tails are equally likely to occur.
Each coin toss is independent of the tosses before it, and the
probability is unaffected by prior information.
19 1/2, or 0.5, assuming that boys and girls are equally likely. Each new
birth is independent of the preceding births, and the probability is
unaffected by prior information.
20 6/6 = 1, assuming that each face of the die is equally likely (a fair
die). Since the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6, any roll
would have a result less than 10.
21 P(day of week doesn’t have a “y”) = 0/7 = 0.
22 P(day of week has a “d”) = 7/7 = 1.
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
76 CHAPTER 6, PROBABILITY IN STATISTICS

23 P(not queen) = 1 – P(queen) = 1 – 4/52 = 1 – 1/13 = 12/13. We are assuming a

fair deck of cards where each card is equally likely to be drawn.
24 P(not heart) = 1 – P(heart) = 1 – 13/52 = 1 – 1/4 = 3/4. We are assuming a
fair deck of cards where each card is equally likely to be drawn.
25 P(not correct) = 1 – P(correct) = 1 – 1/5 = 4/5 or 0.8, assuming that the
guess is random in the sense that all five possible answers have the same
chance of being selected. [See the answer to Exercise 14 for P(correct).]
26 Three names of days include the letter “t” (Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday).
So P(no t) = 1 – P(t) = 1 – 3/7 = 4/7.
27 P(missing basket) = 1 – P(making basket) = 1 – 3/4 = 1/4, or 0.25
28 P(not born on Saturday) = 1 – P(born on Saturday) = 1 – 1/7 = 6/7
[See answer to Exercise 16 for P(born on Saturday)]
29 P(not type O) = 1 – P(type O) = 1 – 0.45 = 0.55
30 P(not defective) = 1 – P(defective) = 1 – 0.02 = 0.98
31 P(red) = 13/100 = 0.13; P(blue) = 27/100 = 0.27; P(yellow) = 8/100 = 0.08;
P(not orange) = 1 – P(orange) = 1 – 25/100 = 75/100 = 0.75. We are assuming
that all of the 100 of M&M’S are equally likely to be selected.
32 You would expect to get a score of 20%. We are assuming that with random
guessing, the different answers are all equally likely.
33 There are eight possible outcomes: GGG, BGG, GBG, GGB, BBG, BGB, GBB, BBB
For each of the parts below, the solution is obtained by dividing the number
of outcomes in the event by 8.

Result Probability
Three girls 1/8 = 0.125
Two girls, one boy 3/8 = 0.375
One girl, two boys 3/8 = 0.375
Three boys 1/8 = 0.125
Total 1.000

a) 1/8 = 0.125 (GGG)

b) 3/8 = 0.375 (BBG, BGB, GBB)
c) 1/8 = 0.125 (GBB)
d) 7/8 = 0.875 (GGG, BGG, GBG, GGB, BBG, BGB, GBB)
e) 4/8 = 0.5 (BBG, BGB, GBB, BBB)
34 a) 16: BBBB, BBBG, BBGB, BGBB, GBBB, BBGG, BGBG, BGGB, GBGB, GBBG, GGBB,
BGGG, GBGG, GGBG, GGGB, GGGG.

Result Probability
Four girls 1/16 = 0.0625
Three girls, one boy 4/16 = 0.2500
Two girls, two boys 6/16 = 0.3750
One girl, three boys 4/16 = 0.2500
Four boys 1/16 = 0.0625
Total 1.0000

b) 2/16 = 1/8, or 0.125 (BBBB, GGGG)

c) 1/16 = 0.0625 (BGBG)
d) 6/16 = 3/8 = 0.375 (BBGG, BGBG, BGGB, GBGB, GBBG, GGBB)
35 The forecaster has been right 26 out 30 times, a relative frequency of 26/30
= 13/15, or 0.867. Thus, her probability of being correct on the next
forecast is 0.867.
36 A hundred year flood occurs about once every one hundred years, so the
probability of one this year is 1/100, or 0.01.
37 P(Success) = 0.72.
38 P(Success) = 67/73 = 0.918.

Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.

 SECTION 6.2, BASICS OF PROBABILITY 77

39
Outcomes for Tossing Four Fair Coins

Coin 1 Coin 2 Coin 3 Coin 4 Outcome Probability

H H H H HHHH 1/16
H H H T HHHT 1/16
H H T H HHTH 1/16
H H T T HHTT 1/16
H T H H HHTH 1/16
H T H T HTHT 1/16
H T T H HTTH 1/16
H T T T HTTT 1/16
T H H H THHH 1/16
T H H T THHT 1/16
T H T H THTH 1/16
T H T T THTT 1/16
T T H H TTHH 1/16
T T H T TTHT 1/16
T T T H TTTH 1/16
T T T T TTTT 1/16

Event Probability Distribution for Tossing Four Coins

4 heads, 0 tails 1/16 0.0625 HHHH
3 heads, 1 tail 4/16 0.25 HHHT, HHTH, HHTH, THHH
HHTT, HTHT, HTTH, THHT, THTH,
2 heads, 2 tails 6/16 0.375 TTHH
1 heads, 3 tails 4/16 0.25 HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH
0 heads, 4 tails 1/16 0.0625 TTTT
Total 16/16 1

a) P(all same) = 2/16 = 1/8, or 0.125

b) P(not same) = 1 – P(same) = 1 – 2/16 = 14/16 = 7/8, or 0.875
c) P(two heads and two tails) = 6/16, or 0.375
40 a) P(any number) = 1/27, or 0.037
b) Based on the histogram 10 occurs the most with a relative
frequency of 82/1639, or 0.0500.
c) The histogram would have a shape that is very close to a uniform
distribution.

Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.

78 CHAPTER 6, PROBABILITY IN STATISTICS

Section 6.3
Statistical Literacy and Critical Thinking

1 The law of large numbers states that if a process is repeated through many
trials, the proportion of the trials in which event A occurs will be close
to the probability P(A). It does not apply to a single trial (observation or
experiment), or even to small numbers of trials, but only to a large number
of trials.
2 With the relatively small number of 10 tosses, the probability of getting a
result slightly away from the most likely outcome of 5 is still quite high.
However, when the number of tosses is 1000, the outcomes will be tightly
distributed around the most likely outcome of 500, so a result of 600 would
be highly improbable.
3 The expected value of a variable is the weighted average of all its possible
values. It is computed using the formula given in the text. Because it is an
average, we should expect a value close to the expected value to occur only
when there are a large number of events, so that the law of large numbers
comes into play.
4 The gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that a streak of bad luck makes
a person “due” for a streak of good luck (or that a streak of good luck will
continue). Examples will vary.
5 This statement makes sense. Most people lose money in the lottery, so the
expected value, which represents what you can expect to get as a return,
should be less than what you spend. Furthermore, a lottery is a business,
and good business plans are created so as to make money rather than lose
money over the long term.
6 This statement makes sense. For every $1 bet, the expected return is 64¢,
so this is a losing game and there is no reason to bet much money on it.
7 This statement does not make sense. All sets of three numbers have the same
probability and the same chance of winning.
8 This statement does not make sense. This is an example of the gambler’s
fallacy.

Concepts and Applications

9 No, you should not expect to get exactly 250 girls since the probability of
that particular outcome is extremely small. The proportion of girls should
approach 0.5 as the number of births increases.
10 It means that the driver is “due” for an accident or a traffic citation. If
citations happen randomly, then the statement is not true. If citations
depend on driving habits, it may be a true statement.
11 For each of the possible outcomes heads or tails, your net winnings would be
(after subtracting the $10 it costs you to play) 5$ or $0. Therefore, your
expected net winnings = ($5)(1/2) + ($0)(1/2) = $2.50. It appears that you
should play. However, you are not tossing the coin, so there is a chance of
cheating occurring. It would be wise to be wary of such a bet.
12 You have a 1/10,000 chance of winning $4999 and a 9999/10,000 chance of
losing $1. Thus, your expected value is
($4999)(1/10,000) + (-$1)(9999/10,000) = -$0.50, or a loss of $0.50.
13 a) –$161 for surviving and $100,000 – $161 = $99,839 for not surviving.
b) P(surviving) = 0. 9986, P(not surviving) = 1 – P(surviving) = 0. 0014.
c) The expected value is –$161 × 0.9986+ $99,839 × 0.0014= -$21.
d) Yes, the insurance company can make a profit. The expected value for
the insurance company is $21, which indicates that the company can
expect to make an average of $21 for each such policy.

Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.

 SECTION 6.3, THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 79

14 a) –$226 for surviving and $50,000 – $226 = $49,774 for not

surviving.
b) P(surviving) = 0. 9968, P(not surviving) = 1 – P(surviving) = 0.
0032.
c) The expected value is –$226 × 0.9968 + $49,774 × 0.0032= -$66.
d) Yes, the insurance company can make a profit. The expected value
for the insurance company is $66, which indicates that the
company can expect to make an average of $66 for each such
policy.
15 Your waiting time is uniformly distributed between 0 and 24 minutes.
The center of this symmetric distribution is 12 minutes, so 12 minutes
is your expected waiting time.
16 a) For a $5.00 bet, the expected value is –$5.00 × 20/38 + $5.00 ×
18/36 = $-0.26.
b) The best option is to not bet, because the expected value for no
bet is 0, which is better than ‒26¢.
17 The expected value for a $20 bet is –$20 × 251/495 + $20 × 244/495 = –
$0.28. So, in the long run, the expected value for each dollar bet is -
$0.28/$20.00 = -$0.014 or ‒1.4¢.
18 The expected value is (-$0.50)(9,999/10,000) + ($2788 –
$0.50)(1/10,000) = -$0.22. In the long run, you can expect to lose
$0.22 for each $0.50 bet.
19 For the 1-point attempt, Expected value = (1 × 0.94) + (0 × 0.06) =
0.94. For the 2-point attempt, Expected value = (2 × 0.37) + (0 ×
0.63) = 0.74. The 1-point attempt makes more sense in most cases.
However, if a team is two points behind with little or no time left, it
makes no sense to go for 1 point. The same is true if the team is
behind by 16 points and it is unlikely that the team will have enough
time to score three times.
20 a) The expected value is ($1,000,000)(1/90,000,000) +
($100,000)(1/110,000,000) + ($25,000)(1/110,000,000) +
($5,000)(1/36,667,000) + ($2,500)(1/27,500,000) = $0.012
b) 1.2 cents minus the cost of the stamp. Mathematically, it is not
worth entering the contest, but the small cost might be worth the
excitement of anticipating a win.
21 a) Decision 1:
Option A: Expected value = $1,000,000
Option B: Expected value = (%2,500,000 × 0.10) + ($1,000,000 ×
0.89) + ($0 × 0.01) = $1,140,000
Decision 2:
Option A: Expected value =
($1,000,000 × 0.11) + ($0 × 0.89) = $110,000
Option B: Expected value =
($2,500,000 × 0.10) + ($0 × 0.90) = $250,000
b) Responses are not consistent with expected values in Decision 1,
but they are consistent in Decision 2.
c) It appears that people choose the certain outcome ($1,000,000) in
Decision 1.
22 a) If you toss a head, with probability 0.5, the difference
decreases to 23; If you toss a tail, with probability 0.5, the
difference increases to 25.
b) On each of 1000 additional tosses, the probability is 0.5 that
the difference will increase and 0.5 that it will decrease. So,
overall, the difference is equally as likely to be greater than
24 as it is to be less than 24.
c) Once you have 24 more tails than heads, the difference is as
likely to increase as to decrease; thus, the number of tails is
likely to remain greater than the number of heads.
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
80 CHAPTER 6, PROBABILITY IN STATISTICS

d) By part (c), the number of tails is likely to exceed the number of

heads at any time. The gambler’s fallacy is that the difference
between heads and tails will eventually be corrected.

Section 6.4
Statistical Literacy and Critical Thinking

1 Travel risk is a rate that quantifies the risk involved in traveling and is
often expressed in terms of an accident rate or death rate. These rates are
in essence expected values and represent probabilities. For example, an
annual accident rate of 750 accidents per 100,000 people tells us that the
probability of a person being involved in an accident (in one year) is 750
in 100,000 = 0.0075. Travel risks must be interpreted with care, as
sometimes they are stated per 100,000 people, as above, but other times they
are stated per trip or per mile.
2 Vital statistics are data related to births and deaths. The rate of 13.2
births per 1000 people means that on average, for every 1000 people in the
population, there are 13.2 births.
3 Life expectancy is the number of additional years a person of a given age
can expect to live on average. A 30-year-old person will have a shorter life
expectancy than a 20-year-old person because the 30-year-old person is not
expected to live as many additional years as the 20-year-old.
4 It means that based on current medical and health data, a person who is 20
years old today will, on average, live to be about 80 years old. However, if
there are improvements in medical treatments and public health, today’s 20-
year-olds will live longer than that on average.
5 This statement does not make sense. Many products do this, including
automobiles.
6 This statement does not make sense. Many fewer people ride motorcycles, so
the higher death rate does not imply higher absolute numbers of deaths.
7 This statement does not make sense. Life expectancy is an average based on
current medicine and public health statistics. An individual’s life span
depends on many other factors.
8 This statement makes sense. On average, a 60-year-old has fewer remaining
years of life than a 20-year old, which means a shorter life expectancy.
9 For 2000, the fatality rate per thousand departures was 92/9035 = 0.0102;
For 2008, the fatality rate per thousand departures was 3/10,437 = 0.0003;
For 2014, the fatality rate per thousand departures was 2/8,987= 0.0002.
The year 2014 was the safest because it had the lowest number of fatalities
per 1000 departures.
10 In 2000, the fatality rate per billion passenger miles was 92/692.8 =0.1328;
In 2008, the fatality rate per billion passenger miles was 3/722.8 =0.0042;
In 2014, the fatality rate per billion passenger miles was 2/ 868.4 =0.0023.
The year 2014 was the safest because it had the lowest rate of fatalities
per billion passenger miles.
11 For 2000, the fatality rate per million passengers was 92/666.2 =0.1381;
For 2008, the fatality rate per million passengers was 3/690.2 =0.0043;
For 2014, the fatality rate per million passengers was 2/ 756.0 =0.0026.
The year 2014 was the safest because it had the lowest number of fatalities
per million passengers.
12 For 2014, the fatality rate per passenger mile is 2/ 868,400,000,000 =
0.0000000000023 (or 2.3 × 10‒12) deaths per passenger mile. This very small
number is inconvenient to write and is not easily understood.
13 The birth rate in the United States was 3,952,937/316,128,839 = 0.0125 or
12.5 births per 1000 people.
14 The birth rate in California was 503,634/38,332,521 = 0.0131 or 13.1 births
per 1000 people.

Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.

 SECTION 6.5, COMBINING PROBABILITIES 81

15 The death rate in California was 250,567/38,332,521 = 0.0065 or 6.5

deaths per 1000 people. The death rate in Florida was
182,121/19,552,860 = 0.0093 or 9.3 deaths per 1000 people.
Florida probably has a higher death rate due to the large number of
older people who retire there.
16 The death rate in California was 250,567/38,332,521 = 0.0065 or 6.5
deaths per 1000 people. The death rate in the United States was
2,540,928/316,128,839 = 0.0080 or 8.0 deaths per 1000 people.
California has a lower death rate than the United States.
17 Based on current life expectancy data, a randomly selected 20-year-old
would be expected to live 59.5 additional years beyond his or her 20th
birthday.
18 Based on current life expectancy data, a randomly selected 18-year-old
would be expected to live 61.4 additional years beyond his or her 18th
birthday.
19 The death rate was 65 deaths per 100,000 people or approximately 6.5
deaths per 10,000 people.
20 The death rate was 74 deaths per 100,000 people or approximately 7.4
deaths per 10,000 people.
21 The death rate due to Alzheimer’s disease was 84,767/325,000,000 =
0.0002608 or 26.08 per 100,000 people.
22 The death rate due to heart disease was 611,105/325,000,000 = 0.0018803
or 188.03 per 100,000 people.
23 The death rate due to stroke was 128,978/325,000,000 = 0.0003969.
So, in a city of population 500,000 people, you would expect 0.0003969
× 500,000 = 198.43, approximately 198 people, would die due to a
stroke.
24 The death rate due to chronic respiratory diseases was
149,205/325,000,000 = 0.0004591. So, in a city of population 500,000
people, you would expect 0.0004591 × 500,000 = 229.55, approximately
230 people would die due to chronic respiratory diseases.
25 The death rate for 60-year-olds is estimated at 7.5 per 1000 people.
So out of 14 million people, 7.5 × 14,000,000/1000 = 105,000 people.
26 The death rate for 25-year-olds is estimated at 2 per 1000 people.
So out of 42 million people, 2 × 42,000,000/1000 = 84,000 people.
27 Based on current life expectancy data, they would be expected to live
another 40 years to age 80.
28 Based on current life expectancy data, they would be expected to live
another 10 years to age 90.
29 The life expectancy percentage increase is (80 – 48)/48 = 0.66 or a 66%
increase. Women in 2100 would be expected to live to 80 × 1.66 = 133
years old.
30 The life expectancy percentage increase is (74 – 46)/46 = 0.61 or a 61%
increase. Men in 2100 would be expected to live to 74 × 1.61 = 119
years old.

Section 6.5
Statistical Literacy and Critical Thinking

1 The student that is chosen from the statistics class for event A does
not affect the probability of choosing a female from the psychology
class for event B. Since the students are picked from different
classes, the two events are independent.
2 When the geneticists selects one pea out of the 4 peas (event G), it
will change the probability of choosing another pea from the remaining
three peas (event Y). The outcome of the first event affects the
probability of the second event, so the two events are dependent.

Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.

82 CHAPTER 6, PROBABILITY IN STATISTICS

3 Yes, a pollster could select an adult that is a male Republican. Events M

and R could occur at the same time, so the events are overlapping.
4 No, since you cannot roll an odd number and an even number at the same time,
these events are complementary as well as non-overlapping. By definition,
the complement of an event does not overlap with the event itself.
5 This statement does not make sense. The numbers drawn are independent of
previous outcomes.
6 This statement does not make sense. The outcomes are H1, H2, H3, H4, H5,
H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6, so P(H or 2) = 7/12, not 2/3.
7 This statement makes sense. It is a valid application of the either/or rule
for non-overlapping events.
8 This statement makes sense. Lottery results from week to week are
independent, so what happened in the past does not affect what happens now
or in the future.

Concepts and Applications

9 Since the births are independent, P(Fourth child is a girl) = 1/2 = 0.5.
10 P(GGBB) = P(G1 and G2 and B3 and B4) = P(G1)P(G2)P(B3)P(B4) =
(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5) = 0.0625 since the four births are independent.
11 Since the digits are independent, P(12) = (1/10)(1/9) = 1/90.
12 a) When sampling with replacement, the outcomes of the first two
selections are independent, so
P(Orange1 and Orange2) = P(Orange1) × P(Orange2) = (6/123)(6/123) =
36/15129 = 0.00238.
b) When sampling without replacement, the outcomes of the first two
selections are dependent, so
P(Orange1 and Orange2) = P(Orange1) × P(Orange2 given Orange1) =
(6/123)(5/122) = 30/15006 = 0.00200
c) If hunters are being selected for a follow-up study, it doesn’t make
much sense to select the same hunter twice, so selecting without
replacement makes more sense. The probability from part (b) would be
more useful.
13 Since the selections can be repeated, the probabilities of each type remain
the same for each selection: 15/50 = 3/10 for rock, 20/50 = 2/5 for jazz,
and 15/50 = 3/10 for country.
a) P(two rock selections in a row) = (3/10) × (3/10) = 0.09
b) P(three jazz selections in a row) = (2/5) × (2/5) × (2/5) = 0.064
c) P(jazz and then country) = (2/5) × (3/10) = 0.12
d) There are 60 equally likely songs available for each selection.
No matter which song is played first, the probability that the next
one is the same is 1/50 = 0.02.
14 a) Dependent events, since the pollster will not call the same person
more than once, the first event will affect the probability of the
second event.
b) P(first male and second female) = P(first is male) × P(second is
female given first is male) = (60/100) × (40/99) = 0.242.
15 The number of people who either pled guilty or were sent to prison is
392 + 564 + 58 = 1014. Therefore, P(guilty plea or sent to prison) =
1014/1028 = 0.986.
16 The number of people who either pled not guilty or were not sent to prison
is 58 + 14 + 564 = 636. Therefore, P(not guilty plea or not sent to prison)
= 636/1028 = 0.619.
17 Altogether, 956 pled guilty out of the total of 1028.
P(First pled Guilty and Second pled Guilty) =
P(First pled Guilty) × P(Second pled Guilty given First pled Guilty) =
(956/1028)(955/1027) = 912,980/1,055,756 = 0.865.

Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.

 SECTION 6.5, COMBINING PROBABILITIES 83

18 Altogether, 450 out of the total of 1028 were sent to prison.

P(First to Prison and Second to Prison) =
P(First to Prison) × P(Second to Prison given First to Prison) =
(450/1028)(449/1027) = 202,050/105,5756 = 0.191.
19 Of the total of 1028 defendants, 392 pled guilty and were sent to
prison, so P(Pled Guilty and Went to Prison) = 392/1028 = 0.381.
20 Of the total of 1028 defendants, 564 pled guilty and were not sent to
prison, so P(Pled Guilty and Did not go to Prison) = 564/1028 = 0.549.
21 The number of accidents in which the pedestrian was intoxicated or the
driver was intoxicated is 59 + 79 + 266 = 404. Therefore,
P(the pedestrian was intoxicated or the driver was intoxicated) =
404/985 = 0.410.
22 The number of accidents in which the pedestrian was not intoxicated or
the driver was not intoxicated is 266 + 581 + 79 = 926. Therefore,
P(the pedestrian was not intoxicated or the driver was not intoxicated)
= 926/985 = 0.940.
23 The number of accidents in which the pedestrian was intoxicated or the
driver was not intoxicated is 59 + 266 + 581 = 906. Therefore,
P(the pedestrian was intoxicated or the driver was not intoxicated) =
906/985 = 0.920.
24 The number of accidents in which the pedestrian was not intoxicated or
the driver was intoxicated is 79 + 581 + 59 = 719. Therefore,
P(the pedestrian was not intoxicated or the driver was intoxicated) =
719/985 = 0.730.
25 Of the 985 accidents, 138 involved intoxicated drivers. When two
accidents are selected without replacement, P(First Driver intoxicated
and Second driver intoxicated) = P(First Driver intoxicated) × P(Second
driver intoxicated given First Driver intoxicated) = (138/985)(137/984)
= 0.0195.
26 Of the 985 accidents, 325 involved intoxicated drivers. When two
accidents are selected without replacement,
P(First Pedestrian intoxicated and Second Pedestrian intoxicated) =
P(First Pedestrian intoxicated) × P(Second Pedestrian intoxicated given
First Pedestrian intoxicated) = (325/985)(324/984) = 0.109.
27 a) P(drug or placebo) = (120 + 100)/300 = 220/300 = 0.733
b) P(improved or not improved) = (138 + 162)/300 = 1
c) We can work this one in two ways:
P(drug or improved) = (65 + 55 + 42 + 31)/300 = 193/300 = 0.643;
also P(drug or improved) = P(drug) + P(improved) -
P(drug and improved) = 120/300 + 138/300 - 65/300 = 193/300 =
0.643.
d) P(drug and improved) = 65/300 = 0.22.
28 a) P(both improved) = (138/300) × (138/300) = 0.212
b) P(both improved) = (138/300) × (137/299) = 0.211
c) The results are close but different.
29 a) There are 1205 people surveyed, 1049 of whom responded and 156 of
whom refused to respond. Therefore, P(Refuse) = 156/1205 = 0.129.
This probability suggests that high refusal rates may be a
problem for pollsters since the survey might result in a sample
that is not representative of the population being surveyed.
Those who refuse may constitute a group with opinions that differ
from those who respond.
b) There are 202 people 60 and over who responded, so the
probability of choosing such a person at random is 202/1205 =
0.168.

Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.

84 CHAPTER 6, PROBABILITY IN STATISTICS

c) There are 1049 who responded plus 11 more in the 18-21 age group who
did not respond, for a total of 1060. Thus the probability that a
person is randomly chosen who responded or is in the 18-21 age group
is 1060/1205 = 0.880.
d) There are 156 people who refused to respond plus another 202 who are
over 59 and responded. Therefore, the probability that a randomly
chosen person refused to respond or is over 59 is 358/1205 = 0.297.
30 a) There are 156 people who refused to respond.
P(both refused) = (156/1205) × (156/1205) = 0.0168.
b) There are 156 people who refused to respond.
P(both refused) = (156/1205) × (155/1204) = 0.0167.
c) The results are close but different. In practice, we can treat them as
independent events, since 2/1205 is less than 5% of the population
size.
31 a)
Positive results Negative results Total
Used marijuana 119 3 122
Didn’t use 24 154 178
marijuana
Total 143 157 300

b) The total number of applicants that had a positive result was 143.
The total number of applicants that said they didn’t use marijuana was
178. Since the applicants that had a positive result and also said
they didn’t use marijuana was counted twice, we take away 24.
P(positive or does not use) = (143 + 178 – 24)/300 = 297/300 = 0.99
c) P(both tested positive) = (143/300) × (143/300) = 0.227
d) P(both tested positive) = (143/300) × (142/299) = 0.226
e) If two job applicants are being selected for follow-up testing, it
doesn’t make much sense to select the same person twice, so selecting
without replacement makes more sense.
32 a) P(B number) = 15/75 = 0.20
b) P(two B numbers in a row) = P(B number on first draw) × P(B number on
second draw | B number on the first draw) = 15/75 × 14/74 = 0.038.
c) P(B number or O number) = 30/75 = 0.400.
d) P(B number, then a G number, then an N number) = P(B number) ×
P(G number | B number) × P(N number | B number and a G number) =
15/75 × 15/74 × 15/73 = 0.0083
e) P(five non-B numbers) = 60/75 × 59/74 × 58/73 × 57/72 × 56/71 = 0.316.

Chapter 6 Review Exercises

1 The total number of subjects is (15 + 42 + 32 + 9) = 98. The total number

of subjects that lied was 42 + 9 = 51. P(Lied) = 51/98 = 0.520
2 The total number of subjects is (15 + 42 + 32 + 9) = 98. The number of
subjects that lied and their polygraph indicated not lying was 32.
P(Didn’t Lie and polygraph indicated not lying) = 32/98 = 0.327
3 The total number of subjects that lied was 42 + 9 = 51. The total number of
subjects whose polygraph indicated lying was 15 + 42 = 57.
P(Lied or polygraph indicated lying) = P(Lied) +
P(polygraph indicated lying) - P(Given lied and polygraph indicated lying) =
(51 + 57 – 42)/98 = 66/98, or 0.673.
4 The total number of subjects that did not lie was 15 + 32 = 47. The total
number of subjects whose polygraph indicated they did not lie was 32 + 9 =
41.
P(did not lie or polygraph indicated did not lie) = P(did not lie) +
P(polygraph indicated did not lie) - P(did not lie and polygraph indicated
did not lie) =(47 + 41 – 32)/98 = 56/98, or 0.571.
Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.
 CHAPTER 6, QUIZ 85

5 The total number of subjects that lied was 42 + 9 = 51. The total
number of subjects that did not lie was 15 + 32 = 47
P(lied or did not lie) = (51 + 47)/98 = 1.0
6 P(both lied) = (51/98) × (50/97) = 0.268
7 P(all three lied) = (51/98) × (50/97) × (49/96) = 0.137
8 Based on data from J. D. Power and Associates, 22% of car colors are
black, so any estimate between 0.05 and 0.35 is reasonable.
9 a) P(Not Good) = 1 – P(Good) = 1 – 0.27 = 0.73
b) P(Both good) = P(Good1 and Good2) = P(Good1)P(Good2)
=(0.27)(0.27) = 0.0729.
c) Expected number of good chips = 0.27 × 5 = 1.35.
d) P(all 5 good) = 0.275 = 0.001435. Getting 5 good ones in 5
selections has a very small probability if 27% of the chips are
good, so we would tend to believe that the true yield is greater
than 27%.
10 a) P(death due to motor vehicle crash) = 10.3/100,000 = 0.000103.
b) The probability that one person does not die in a crash is
1 – 0.000103 = 0.999897.
P(two randomly selected people do not die in vehicle crash) =
0.999897 × 0.999897 = 0.9998.

Chapter 6 Quiz

1 P(Correct) = 0.6, so P(Wrong) = 1 – 0.6 = 0.4 or 40%.

2 These are independent events, so P(First Correct and Second Correct) =
P(First Correct) × P(Second Correct) = (0.6)(0.6) = 0.36 or 36%.
3 Answers may vary. This doesn’t happen very often, so an estimate of
0.01 or lower is reasonable.
4 Yes, the method appears to be effective, since the probability is very
small that the trial results could have occurred by chance.
5 P(Ā) = 1 – P(A) = 1 – 0.65 = 0.35
6
Passed Failed Total
Group A 10 14 24
Group B 417 145 562
Total 427 159 586
P(Passed) = 427/586 = 0.729
7 P(Group B or Passed) = (562 + 10)/586 = 0.976.
8 P(First is Group A and Second is Group A) = (24/586)(23/585) = 0.00161.
9 P(Group A and Passed) = 10/586 = 0.0171
10 P(Failed or Group A) =
P(Failed) + P(Group A) – P(Failed and in Group A) =
(159 + 24 - 14)/586 = 0.288.

Copyright © 2018 Pearson Education, Inc.

Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
taken by W. at only about 8 yds. range. He had sustained damage to one eye
—the one nearest the photographer—and probably that was why W. could
approach him so closely.
So far we had not met with great numbers of tsetse. But now we began to
reach a very flat country which was evidently all under water in the wet
season. Half submerged evergreen forests became more and more common.
These cool, damp forests were full of tsetse, and in a few days we were
overjoyed to find that elephant frequented them in goodly numbers. Buffalo
also seemed fond of them. Had it not been for the swarms of tsetse I think we
would have found these groves of evergreen standing full of elephant and
buffalo. As it was they came to them only by night, withdrawing to the open
bush and dry grass lands in the daytime. Only once did we actually see
elephant from the canoes in the daytime, although we frequently did so by
night.

SPUR-WINGED GEESE: SHARI RIVER.

 MALE EGYPTIAN GEESE IN BREEDING SEASON: BAHR AOUCK.

One day we saw ahead of us what appeared like pure white trees. When
we drew near we saw that the white on the trees was caused by a colony of
egrets sitting on their nests, the surrounding foliage being covered with their
droppings. A curious fact in connection with this colony was that when we
repassed it on our way down-stream some six weeks after, white spoonbills
had taken over the nests and were busy sitting on them, while their earlier
occupants, the egrets, were all over the sand-banks, teaching their half-grown
progeny how to catch fish, etc.
At the time of our up-stream journey the Egyptian goose was also breeding.
On every sand-bank there were scores of ganders, while the geese were
hidden away in the vegetation, sitting on their nests. These we found, but
always with great difficulty, so well were they hidden.
Fly and game became more and more plentiful as we journeyed on. When I
speak of fly I mean tsetse; there were other flies in plenty, but they appeared
of no importance beside the fiendish tsetse. We began to see buffalo now, and
one day we saw where the river bank had been trampled down. As we
approached it became clear that a very large herd of elephants had been
there. It was soon evident that the tracks were quite recent, having been
made the night before. We found a nice site for camp on an island, where our
fires would not be seen by elephant revisiting their drinking place. We hoped
that they would come in the night, and sure enough they did so, soon after
sundown—such a splashing and rumbling, trumpeting and crashing. Lions
were also busy, roaring on both sides of the river. It was a busy spot and one
of our happiest camps. From it as base we hunted in all directions. And what a
long way the elephant used to go in the daytime from the river. They would
come to the river just after sundown when the flies were quiet. There they
would spend the night, crashing the evergreen gallery-forest, plastering
themselves with mud as a protection against fly on the following day, eating
acres of the still green river grass, and generally enjoying themselves. It must
be remembered that at this season everything a few yards back from the river
is burnt up either by sun or fire. The dry season in these tropical parts is the
winter of the Northern Hemisphere, in its effects upon vegetation. Instead of
dying off the grass is burnt off. The grass fires wither the leaves on the trees
and they fall immediately after. All temporary water, such as pools, puddles,
etc., dries up. Fly desert the dry parts and congregate in myriads in the shade
of the river forest. But they will follow man or beast for miles into the dry
country. It is astounding to look behind one as one leaves the vicinity of the
river. Behind each man there is a small cloud of tsetse; they keep about two or
three feet from the ground. Each traveller keeps flicking away fly that settle on
the man in front of him. It is rather startling at first to receive a hard slap on the
back when one is not expecting it. Fly generally got us under the brims of our
hats and, when near to buffalo, one would be bitten every thirty seconds.
Lucky for us that there were no natives about with sleeping sickness. During
the dry season there is not much for elephant to eat away from the river. They
pick up a fair lot of tamarind fruit, dig up roots, and chew aloes and sansivera
fibre, spitting out the fibre in balls. But it is on the river that they depend for the
bulk of their green food and water, and, were it not for fly, they would
doubtless remain there day and night.
Early on the following morning W. and I separated, he taking one bank while
I took the other. I tracked a large herd back from the river for about five hours’
fairly slow going, as the tracking was difficult. Dry season tracking is difficult
because the ground becomes so hard, also because all the old tracks remain,
as there is no rain to obliterate them.
About fifteen miles back from their drinking place there were signs of the
elephant having left their huge and well-worn trails, scattering right and left
into small groups, the better to find their scanty food. We saw plenty of fresh
rhino spoor, but this was one of the few days upon which we did not encounter
them in the flesh.
 SKY BLACK WITH WILDFOWL.

RHINO NEARLY HAVE OUR COOK.

We had been disentangling the trail of a large bull and had brought it,
through the scores of other tracks, right from the river bank. We were
rewarded presently by sighting him by himself, wandering gently on. The
country was altogether in favour of the rifle, and he had no chance. But after
the shot I was astonished to see elephant emerge from the bushy parts,
strolling aimlessly about, apparently quite unscared by the sound of a rifle. I
went through crowds and crowds of them, getting a bull here and there. It was
many years since I had seen elephant so unacquainted with firearms. They
appeared to take the crack of the ·318 for the crack of a breaking tree-stem or
something of that sort.
As our hunting operations were all rather similar to the above, except in
result, I will pass them over and merely remark on the extraordinary numbers
of rhino we met. They were so stupid and so numerous as to be a perfect
nuisance. On sighting one we generally tried to avoid him by making a detour,
but even then they would sometimes follow us. On several occasions our boys
got into trouble with them and they had to be shot in order to avoid accidents.
Once, on leaving camp for a few days’ tour in the bush, we started a big cow
and a bull from the river bush. They trotted away and I thought no more about
them. About an hour afterwards I heard a frantic shout behind me. I looked
round, and there was my boy legging it straight towards me, with our two
friends of the morning close behind him. The big cow was leading and was
quite close to the boy. They were all going their hardest, and really appeared
bent on mischief, so I was compelled to shoot the cow and, shortly afterwards,
the bull also, as he went barging stupidly about. I sent afterwards for the horns
of these rhino when I thought they would be sufficiently rotten to disengage
easily. The boy who went for them found the bodies in the possession of three
lions, which refused to budge when shouted at. We had provided the boy with
a rifle. He said that he fired it at the lions, who took no notice of it, but
continued to growl at him. He then had another shot, which hit one of them.
They all withdrew a little distance, when the boy had another shot at the
wounded one and killed him. He said that the others remained about in the
vicinity while he skinned the lion and pulled off the horns of the now putrid
rhino.
Besides rhino there were many lions, some of immense size, although with
poor manes. Although I knew the Athi Plains in British East Africa in the old
days, and many other parts of Africa, I have never seen such numbers of
lions. I believe I am correct in stating that every carcase of elephant that we
shot during the entire time was found in the possession of at least one lion
when visited for the purpose of drawing the tusks. The greatest number that I
personally saw round a carcase was five, but when I camped a few hundred
yards to windward of some dead elephants we all had a very lively time
indeed. Some boys had meat hung up and drying round huge fires too close,
as it turned out, to the dead animals. I am safe in saying that from one hour
after sundown until one hour before dawn nothing could approach the
carcases because of the lions about them. Hyenas and jackals were
constantly trying to sneak up to them, only to be chased off with the most
terrific growls and rushes by the lions. So impertinent did they become that
eventually they occupied with impunity one of the carcases which lay only 15
yds. from the nearest fire. Here they were clearly visible to the boys in the
meat camp, and when they first came the boys had tried to drive them off by
throwing burning sticks at them. This offensive was so effectually countered
by the lions as to cause it to cease at once. The arrival of the first firebrand
was greeted with such an appalling outburst of growls, snarls, and showing of
teeth as veritably to scare the throwers almost to the point of flight. The lions
were not again molested and pursued their scavenging in peace. I spent some
days at this spot, as it held the only water for miles around, and one could
hear the lions approaching each evening. They commenced to roar about an
hour before sundown and continued until they arrived. Where they all
disappeared to in the daytime was a mystery, though dogs would have shown
them.

MUSGUM VILLAGE: INUNDATED AREA.

 MUD HUTS: MUSGUM.

Constructed without wooden supports of any kind, and with holes in the top for exit during
floods.

This particular camp was also remarkable for the extraordinary number of
marabou storks. I had often before seen hundreds of these huge birds collect
on a carcase, and I had seen large numbers assembled for the fish which
were left high and dry by a receding river, but here they were literally in tens of
thousands. And what digestions they have! Huge lumps of elephant offal are
snapped up and swallowed. Then when the interior mechanism has received
all that it can handle, the foul provender is passed into the great flesh-red sack
which depends from the neck. This sack bulges and lengthens until it nearly
touches the ground. But what a weary air they have as they flap slowly and
heavily away, completely gorged, to a convenient perch, there to digest the
putrid mass. As scavengers I should say that five or six marabou would about
equal a full-blown incinerator.
As we were so short-handed we found it impossible to cut out the tusks of
the elephant we got. Consequently we were obliged to leave them until the
action of putrification loosened them in the socket, when they could be drawn.
We found that four days were required before this could be done. On the third
day the topmost tusk would generally come away, but the under one remained
fast. It was owing to this fact that some of our little party had to visit the
carcases when they were in a highly advanced state of putrification, and they
were invariably found in the possession of one or more lions. Why the lions
were such dirty feeders was not apparent. The whole country was seething
with game; kob and haartebeeste, giraffe, buffalo, topi and smaller antelope
were all numerous. Nearly all cover, such as grass, was burnt off, and it is
possible that this made it more difficult for lions to kill.
The skins of these lions were of a peculiarly dark olive tinge for the most
part, with the scanty mane of a slightly lighter tint. Some of them were of
immense size, and all that we shot were in good condition.
One day our Kabba boy divulged the fact that he had been up the river
before. He had come at high water with some companions to gather the
leaves of the Borassus palm for making mats. He said that the highest point
they had reached lay about a day’s travel ahead of us, and then we should
reach a country of palms.
We did so. The whole country became covered with these beautiful palms.
The huge fruit hung in dozens from the crowns, while the vultures were
nesting among the leaves. As our food consisted chiefly of meat and grain,
anything in the shape of fruit was eagerly eaten. We used to stew these palm
fruits, each the size of a grape fruit. Although the flesh was almost too stringy
to swallow, the juice mixed with honey was excellent.
As we plunged along up-stream one day, what did we see in mid-stream
ahead of us but a floating hippo spear, travelling slowly along with the current
towards us. These spears are so constructed that the buoyancy of the shank
is sufficient to float about one-third of the spear standing straight up out of the
water. This enables the hunter to recover his spear when he misses a hippo.
From this floating evidence it was clear that there were natives in the
vicinity, and as we were about to pick up the spear we saw its owner’s head
watching us from the bank. We salvaged his spear and rested easy, while we
tried to talk across the river to him. We tried him in all the native languages
known to any member of the safari, but it was not until we tried the Sango
tongue of Ubangui watershed that he answered. But he was shy and
frightened, and we made little headway. When we offered to bring him his
spear he quietly disappeared from view. However, we hoped we had sown
good seed by telling him that we were come to hunt elephant, and that all who
helped were welcome to the meat. On we went on our way, our progress, as
usual, impeded at every pool by hippo. That night we camped on the bank
opposite to that of the natives.
 Nothing happened. In the morning as we drew out a young water buck was
shot for food for the boys—we whites preferred teal. While on the subject of
teal I would like to say that we never tired of these birds. We ate them stewed
at regular meal times, and we ate them roasted on the spit between meals,
cold. We ate them not as we do here, a mere slice or two from the breast; but
we each ate one or two whole birds at a sitting.

A WATER BUCK.
 FEMALE WATER BUCK ON SANDBANK.

As the buck was being skinned we heard a shout from the opposite bank,
and there were some natives. This was splendid. On these occasions it is best
to show no haste or eagerness, so the skinning and loading of the buck went
on methodically. Everything of the buck was taken, as we did not want our
newly-found natives to get any meat until we had come to some
understanding as to their showing us elephant.
When all were aboard we paddled slowly across to the natives, who were
obviously shy. Anchoring the canoe by clinging to the grass, we held a kind of
introduction ceremony. Among the natives we were glad to see our friend of
yesterday’s hippo-spear incident. We laid bare to them our object in ascending
this river, and asked in return with whom we had to deal. They said that they
came from the south, to reach their village requiring four days’ travelling
without loads. Knowing the kind of thing they meant by this, I estimated the
distance at about 180 or 200 miles. They disclosed also that they had
originally been under Senussi at Ndélé, that they still paid taxes and found
labour for that post, but that since the occupation of the country by the French,
following upon the killing of the old Sultan Senussi, they now lived three or
four days’ march to the north of the post Ndélé. While Senussi reigned they
had been obliged to live in the capital; as with Buba Gida, all the inhabitants of
the country for 300 miles round had been “gathered in.” Meanwhile, they said,
elephant were now in the neighbourhood and that they could show us them.
We were ready in a very few moments to accompany them, merely taking a
mosquito net, a small packet of tea and sugar and a kettle. Presently we
joined up with some more natives, some of whom were armed with the
enormous elephant spear of the Arab elephant hunters, whose country lay to
the north. These spears have a leaf-shaped head from 7 ins. to 9 ins. across,
and are kept razor-edged. The system of hunting is this. In the dry season,
when most of the grass has been burnt off and the harmatan is blowing, all the
young bloods arrange an expedition. The harmatan is the north-east monsoon
of the Indian Ocean, and is a hard breeze at midday of a velocity of about 30
m.p.h., dry and hot when it comes off the desert, and constant as regards
direction. At this season so dry is the air that sound carries no distance, and
one may walk up to within a few feet of elephant without fear of discovery.
These expeditions sometimes number 300 spears. All the old crocks of horses
are raked up. The rich are represented on the expedition by slaves, mostly on
foot. All are armed with the huge spears, with their bamboo shanks 10 ft. or 12
ft. long. Off they set for the south, poorly supplied with food, as they reckon to
live “tough” on what they can kill. When they set out they and the horses are
in very good condition, but when they return the men are haggard and thin,
leg-weary and footsore, while most of the horses are bleached and well
gnawed skeletons in the bush. Few survive the hard work, poor food, and
constant attacks of the tsetse fly. When they meet with the fairly recent trail of
a herd of elephant they take it up with tremendous vigour, push along it
without a stop until dark, camp, on again next day without a stop, perhaps
camp again and eventually sight their quarry. Then those on horses dismount,
the protectors are taken off the razor-sharp spear-heads, and all advance
shoulder to shoulder, spears held projecting 6 ft. or 7 ft. in front, the flat of the
spear-head lying in a horizontal direction. With the harmatan blowing its
hardest it is possible for the line of spear-men to come within thrusting
distance of the elephants’ sterns, and at a signal the spears are driven in with
the aim of cutting the large tendons and arteries. Hence the width of spear-
head. In the consequent commotion casualties among the spear-men are
frequent, as might be expected. Off go the unwounded animals, the horses
are brought, and the chase is again taken up. Now the elephant will not stop
for miles and miles, so they must be ridden to a standstill, or nearly so, before
another assault on them can be attempted. Away into desperately dry and
waterless country they go, but, try as they may, those human devils are
always with them. The hardships these latter bear are almost incredible. They
seldom have water or food with them. Often they are starving, and their only
hope, the death of an elephant. Kill, or die miserably in the bush, is not a bad
system and, as might be expected, leads to perfectly awful destruction of
elephant life. Ivory is primarily the object, but, as the hunt develops, water and
meat become of more importance. Water, I must explain, is obtained from the
elephants’ intestines and, although warm, is quite good to drink. In the
average herd cows and calves predominate, consequently they suffer most. In
the case of this country the coming of the white man is the indirect cause of
the destruction of elephant, and not, as in other parts of Africa, the direct
cause of their protection. Natives are permitted to hunt elephant in the above
manner on payment of a small fee, in order that they may acquire the
wherewithal to pay their taxes—a policy short-sighted indeed, when we
remember Darwin’s calculation that in 900 years two elephants become a
million.

DOE KOB AND CALF WELL CAMOUFLAGED.

 COW HIPPO AND CALF.

With our newly-found friends as guides we were soon on the trail of our
game, and by their aid we ran into and killed late in the afternoon. Our friends
were simply overjoyed at the sight of so much meat. They became extremely
friendly, cutting grass for my bed, fetching wood and water, ready to do
anything. From being rather surly and reserved they became very
communicative. As they roasted tit-bits from the elephants on their fires
nothing but shouts of laughter and merry chatter could be heard. And when,
later, we had all eaten and everyone was smoking—for they carried tobacco—
they told me more of themselves. I found that they all talked Sango. They said
that every dry season they came to the Bahr Aouck to hunt hippo or elephant,
but that so far they had had no luck. During the rains the whole country for
miles on either side was under water. No villages existed nearer the river than
theirs. They knew the river up to the point where it issued from Lake Mamun.
This item was a complete surprise to me, for I had never heard it even
suggested that the Bahr Aouck issued from that lake. I pressed my enquiries
among the older men, and arrived at the information that shortly after leaving
the lake the Bahr Aouck was joined by another river which came from a
country I knew to be within the Egyptian Sudan border. I asked after the
natives of Lake Mamun, who were supposed to live on the waters themselves,
constructing for that purpose huts on piles. They told me that since the slave-
raids had ceased, when Senussi was shot by the French, the natives had
abandoned their lake dwellings and now lived on the shores like normal
people. They said that the whole country ahead was teeming with game. I had
learnt more in half an hour round the camp-fire with full bellies than weeks of
intercourse in the ordinary way would have yielded. Such is the power of meat
on the African.

ARAB SPEAR FOR HAM-STRINGING ELEPHANT.

This system of penetrating the country by feeding the natives has the
disadvantage that if you kill a large animal they dry the meat they cannot eat
and take it home to their villages, when it can be bartered for all kinds of
commodities. Therefore you have constantly to be making new
acquaintances. Everything else is entirely in its favour, not the least being its
economy. They will carry light loads for you for days through the bush, hunt
diligently for game, chop out and carry to the base any ivory you may get. If
you are within fifty miles or so of villages the women bring food of all sorts,
and it is seldom that a few eggs—more or less fresh—are not forthcoming for
the white man. Then they hold dances in the camps. When there are plenty of
young girls about these dances become rather loose affairs. The usual
restraints of village life seem to be relaxed in the bush, and everyone enjoys
himself or herself to the utmost. Abundance of animal food has a curious
effect on natives. Where they inhabit stockless country they go months without
flesh, with the exception of an occasional rat or mongoose or bird. The craving
for meat becomes intense, and is, in my opinion, the cause of cannibalism.
Then when they suddenly become possessed of almost unlimited meat they
simply gorge themselves. A man will eat 15 lb. or 20 lb. in the twenty-four
hours. All night long he eats and dozes, then eats again. This turns him a
peculiar dull matt colour and yellow in the eyes. On the third day he has
completely recovered from this and is again full of energy. In a very short time
he wants his grain food again, and if he has the choice will eat a large portion
of grain to a small portion of meat. If, as with elephant, there is a good
proportion of fat, natives become extremely fit on these rations. As an
example of this I can cite the case of a “kilangozi,” or head porter, of mine.
This man, of slight build, carried a tusk weighing 148 lb. plus his mat, blanket
and rations, another 15 lb., for sixty-three days’ consecutive marching. The
shortest day was five hours, and some were very long indeed. He had as
rations throughout this march 2 lb. of native grain each day and as much meat
as he cared for with elephant fat. His condition was magnificent throughout.
PORTAGING CANOES.
 THE KILANGOZI OR HEAD PORTER WHO CARRIED THIS TUSK (148 LBS.)
FOR SIXTY-THREE CONSECUTIVE MARCHING DAYS.

In the morning I pushed off to look for elephant. The natives promised to cut
out the tusks and to bring them to the canoes, which they faithfully did.
After hunting in this region for some days, during which we saw many lion
and killed six, we pushed on up-stream again. We were soon held up by more
elephant and more natives. The news of our doings had already reached the
villages south of us, and we had a continuous stream of natives coming
hungry to us, carrying our bush loads all over the country, to be rewarded
eventually with meat, and then stopping to smoke it while their places were
taken by newcomers. So prolific in game was the country that we never
reached Lake Mamun, as we had intended. Our time was up, food exhausted
and canoes laden. So one fine day we decided to return.
 XIII
BUFFALO

There is no animal in Africa with such a sinister reputation as the buffalo,

whether the bush cow of West Africa or the great black Cape buffalo be under
discussion. It has been repeatedly accused of dreadful cunning and great
ferocity, and it has undoubtedly caused many deaths and maulings among
both white and native hunters. Among the cases which have come under my
own observation or of which I have heard from reliable sources, the maulings
have been far more numerous than the deaths. The wounds caused by buffalo
horns seem to heal better than lion bites; the latter, when made by old lions
with dirty teeth, can be very troublesome.
Why the buffalo should have got such an evil name has always rather
puzzled me. I have shot hundreds of both kinds during my hunting career, and
I have never been charged. And yet I have constantly read of fierce
encounters between hunters and their game. Two white men were killed
recently in Nigeria by a bush cow, and I have frequently asked for certain
natives by name on revisiting villages and have been told that they have been
killed by buffalo. Yet, even when I came suddenly on a buffalo bull lying
wounded in thick stuff, he did not charge. This animal had been mauled by
lion, and according to all the rules should have charged as soon as he
became aware of my approach. What he would have done had I not put a
bullet through his neck I do not know. Perhaps he might have charged.
IN THICK STUFF.
 WORTHY GAME.

SOME RETREATING CLEVERLY BACKWARDS AND RECEIVING THE CHARGING

ANIMALS’ RUSHES ON THEIR SHIELDS, WHILE OTHERS JABBED SPEARS INTO THEIR
VITALS FROM THE SIDES.

I well remember the mixed awe and apprehension with which I approached
a herd of buffalo in my early hunting efforts. I had read of all the hair-breadth
escapes hunters usually had with these animals, of their diabolical cunning,
etc., and I was quite determined not to wound any. I was also very cautious
not to approach too near. There were many of them out in fairly short grass. I
could see them all clearly, and as we wanted meat I thought I would select a
nice fat cow. With me were about forty young bloods from the tribe with which
I was hunting. They were all fully armed in their fashion—each man carried
two thrusting spears and a rhino or giraffe hide shield. The reason they carried
shields was that we had been hunting elephant in no man’s land, where
prowlers from the enemy, i.e., the neighbouring tribe, might have been met.
Telling this mob to get away back while I did the shooting I left them and
approached the browsing and unsuspicious herd. Selecting what I thought
would be a fat one, I fired. Without pausing or wavering the whole herd started
straight for me, closing together as they came. I fired again at one of the
leaders and then started to get out of their way. As I ran to the side I met and
ran through the forty spear-men, who were now rushing straight to meet the
herd. Stopping and turning, I was astounded to see these fellows right in
among the buffalo, some retreating cleverly backwards and receiving the